Seb Country Analysis 2008 Poland

Poland SEB MERCHANT BANKING – COUNTRY RISK ANALYSIS

July 10, 2008

Analyst: Jenny Nordgren. Tel: +46 8 763 96 05. E-mail : [email protected]

Percent

= `çåíáåìÉÇ=ëíêçåÖ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Éñé~åëáçåK==bÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=íç=Öêçï= ëíêçåÖäó=áå=OMMT=~åÇ=áåíç=íÜÉ=Ñáêëí=èì~êíÉê=çÑ=OMMUI=ìåÇÉêéáååÉÇ=Äó=ëíêçåÖ= ~ÅÅÉäÉê~íáçå=áå=ÑáñÉÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=~åÇ=ãçêÉ=êÉÅÉåíäó=~=éáÅâJìé=áå=éêáî~íÉ=ÅçåëìãéíáçåK= bÅçåçãáÅ=~Åíáîáíó=áë=ÉñéÉÅíÉÇ=íç=ãçÇÉê~íÉ=çåäó=ëäáÖÜíäó=íÜÉ=ÅçãáåÖ=óÉ~êë=~ë=ëäçïÉê= áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå=Éñéçêíë=~åÇ=ÑáñÉÇ=áåîÉëíãÉåí=~êÉ=ãçëíäó=çÑÑëÉí=Äó=ëíêçåÖÉê=ÖêçïíÜ=áå= éêáî~íÉ=Åçåëìãéíáçå=ÑìÉääÉÇ=Äó=áåÅêÉ~ëÉë=áå=êÉ~ä=ï~ÖÉë=~åÇ=ÉãéäçóãÉåí=~ë=ïÉää=~ë= ÑáëÅ~ä=É~ëáåÖI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=éÉêëçå~ä=áåÅçãÉ=í~ñ=Åìíë=~åÇ=Éñé~åÇÉÇ=éÉåëáçå=áåÇÉñ~íáçåK= = bãÉêÖáåÖ=Äìí=ëíáää=ãçÇÉëí=áãÄ~ä~åÅÉëK=qÜÉ=ÉÅçåçãáÅ=Éñé~åëáçå=Ü~ë=ìåíáä=êÉÅÉåíäó= ÄÉÉå=ïÉää=Ä~ä~åÅÉÇ=ïáíÜ=~=ãçÇÉëí=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=áåÑä~íáçå=ê~íÉ=éáÅâÉÇ= Inflation and Wages ìé=ëáÖåáÑáÅ~åíäó=~í=íÜÉ=ÉåÇ=çÑ=OMMT=êÉ~ÅÜáåÖ= 12 5.0 QKP=B=áå=j~óI=Ñ~ê=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâÛë= 11 4.5 Inflation (rhs) í~êÖÉí=çÑ=OKR=BI=~ë=~=êÉëìäí=çÑ=ëìêÖáåÖ=ÖäçÄ~ä= 10 4.0 Wages (lhs) ÑççÇ=~åÇ=ÉåÉêÖó=éêáÅÉë=Äìí=~äëç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ= 9 3.5 ÇÉã~åÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=ÑìÉääÉÇ=Äó=ê~éáÇ=ï~ÖÉ= 8 3.0 7 ~åÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=ÖêçïíÜK=t~ÖÉë=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=Äó= 2.5 6 2.0 NOKS=B=áå=^éêáä=OMMU=éK~K=~åÇ=êÉÅÉåí=ëíêáâÉë= 5 1.5 áåÇáÅ~íÉ=ÅçåíáåìÉÇ=ëíêçåÖ=éçäáíáÅ~ä= 4 1.0 éêÉëëìêÉ=íç=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=éìÄäáÅ=ëÉÅíçê=ï~ÖÉëK= 3 0.5 o~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=Éñé~åëáçå=çÑ=ãçêÉ=íÜ~å=PM=B= 2 0.0 02 03 04 05 06 07 EóçóFI=ÉëéÉÅá~ääó=íç=ÜçìëÉÜçäÇëI=Ü~ë=~äëç= ÅçåíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=ÇÉã~åÇ=éêÉëëìêÉ=~åÇ= éìëÜÉÇ=ìé=éêáî~íÉ=ëÉÅíçê=ÅêÉÇáí=íç=QM=B=çÑ=dam=Ñêçã=äÉëë=íÜ~å=PM=B=áå=OMMR=EëÉÉ= Öê~éÜë=çå=é~ÖÉ=QFK=qç=ëíÉã=áåÑä~íáçå~êó=éêÉëëìêÉëI=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=Ü~ë=ê~áëÉÇ= áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=Äó=OMM=Ä~ëáë=éçáåíë=ëáåÅÉ=^éêáä=OMMT=íç=S=B=êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=~å=~ééêÉÅá~íáçå= çÑ=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÜ~åÖÉ=ê~íÉK= = táÇÉåáåÖ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáíK=qÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåí=~ÅÅçìåí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ïáÇÉåÉÇ=íç=PKT=B=çÑ= dam=áå=OMMT=Ñêçã=OKT=B=áå=OMMS=ÇÉëéáíÉ=~=ëçäáÇ=Éñéçêí=ÖêçïíÜK=qÜÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=Ü~ëI= ÜçïÉîÉêI=ÄÉÉå=É~ëáäó=Ñáå~åÅÉÇ=Äó=caf=áåÑäçïëI=áåÅäìÇáåÖ=áåÅêÉ~ëÉÇ=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Äó= Ä~åâë=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=ÑçêÉáÖå=é~êÉåíë=áå=çêÇÉê=íç=Ñáå~åÅÉ=íÜÉ=ê~éáÇ=ÅêÉÇáí=Éñé~åëáçåK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=k~íáçå~ä=_~åâ=çÑ=mçä~åÇI=åÉí=ÑçêÉáÖå=ÄçêêçïáåÖ=Äó=Ä~åâëI=Åçãé~åáÉë= ~åÇ=íÜÉ=ÅÉåíê~ä=Ä~åâ=~äãçëí=ÇçìÄäÉÇ=íç=rpa=PR=Äáääáçå=ÇìêáåÖ=OMMT=ÅçåíêáÄìíáåÖ=íç=~= åÉí=Å~éáí~ä=áåÑäçï=çÑ=rpa=OQ=ÄáääáçåI=ìé=Ñêçã=äÉëë=íÜ~å=rpa=NM=Äáääáçå=íÜÉ=óÉ~ê=ÄÉÑçêÉK= eçïÉîÉêI=íÜÉ=çîÉê~ää=ëÜ~êÉ=çÑ=åÉí=ÑçêÉáÖå=äá~ÄáäáíáÉë=áë=ëíáää=ëã~ää=~ÅÅçêÇáåÖ=íç=íÜÉ=fjc= ~åÇ=íÜÉ=Ä~åâë=êÉã~áåë=ïÉää=Å~éáí~äáòÉÇ=~åÇ=éêçÑáí~ÄäÉK= =

Percent

Country Risk Analysis

Source: Reuters EcoWin

important your attention is drawn to the statement on the back cover of this report which affects your rights.

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis July, 2008

fãéêçîÉÇ=éìÄäáÅ=Ñáå~åÅÉëK=qÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=å~êêçïÉÇ=íç=O=B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMT=Ñêçã= PKU=B=áå=OMMS=ÇìÉ=íç=Äìçó~åí=í~ñ=êÉÅÉáéíë=~åÇ=ÇÉÅäáåáåÖ=Å~éáí~ä=~åÇ=ëçÅá~ä=ëéÉåÇáåÖK= ^ÅÅçêÇáåÖäóI=íÜÉ=ÉñÅÉëëáîÉ=ÇÉÑáÅáí=ëáíì~íáçå=áå=mçä~åÇ=Ü~ë=åçï=ÄÉÉå=ÅçêêÉÅíÉÇ=íç= ÄÉäçï=íÜÉ=j~~ëíêáÅÜí=ÅêáíÉêá~=çÑ=P=B=êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=~å=~ÄêçÖ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=bñÅÉëëáîÉ= aÉÑáÅáí=mêçÅÉÇìêÉ=Äó=íÜÉ=brK=qÜÉ=êÉîáëÉÇ=ÅçåîÉêÖÉåÅÉ=éêçÖê~ã=ëìÄãáííÉÇ=íç=íÜÉ=br= `çããáëëáçå=áå=j~êÅÜ=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~ëëìãÉë=~=ëäáÖÜí=áåÅêÉ~ëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÄìÇÖÉí=ÇÉÑáÅáí=íç=OKR= B=çÑ=dam=áå=OMMU=~åÇ=íÜÉå=~=Öê~Çì~ä=áãéêçîÉãÉåí=íç=NKR=B=íç=dam=áå=OMNMK=qÜÉ=br= `çããáëëáçåI=ÜçïÉîÉêI=ëí~íÉë=áå=íÜÉáê=~ëëÉëëãÉåí=çÑ=íÜÉ=éêçÖê~ã=íÜ~í=“~ë=íÜÉ= ÉÅçåçãó=Éåàçóë=Ñ~îçìê~ÄäÉ=ÖêçïíÜ=ÅçåÇáíáçåëI=íÜÉ=é~ÅÉ=çÑ=~ÇàìëíãÉåí=íçï~êÇë=íÜÉ= ãÉÇáìãJíÉêã=çÄàÉÅíáîÉ=áãéäáÉÇ=Äó=íÜÉ=éêçÖê~ããÉ=áë=áåëìÑÑáÅáÉåí=~åÇ=åÉÉÇë=íç=ÄÉ= ëíêÉåÖíÜÉåÉÇ=áå=OMMU=íç=ÄÉ=áå=äáåÉ=ïáíÜ=íÜÉ=pí~Äáäáíó=~åÇ=dêçïíÜ=m~ÅíK=qÜÉêÉ~ÑíÉêI=áí= ëÜçìäÇ=ÄÉ=Ä~ÅâÉÇ=ìé=ïáíÜ=ãÉ~ëìêÉëK=få=~ÇÇáíáçåI=ëÜçìäÇ=áåÑä~íáçå~êó=~åÇ=ï~ÖÉ= éêÉëëìêÉë=ã~íÉêá~äáëÉI=~=íáÖÜíÉê=ÑáëÅ~ä=ëí~åÅÉ=íÜ~å=ÑçêÉëÉÉå=áå=íÜÉ=éêçÖê~ããÉ=ïçìäÇ= ÄÉ=êÉèìáêÉÇ=íç=~îçáÇ=çîÉêÜÉ~íáåÖKÒ=^=íáãÉäó=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅó=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ=ÅçìäÇI=ÜçïÉîÉêI= éêçîÉ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖ=áå=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=éêÉëáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=é~êäá~ãÉåí~êó=ÉäÉÅíáçåë= áå=OMNM=~åÇ=OMNN=êÉëéÉÅíáîÉäóK== = = JJ˘JJ= = = qÜÉ=mçäáëÜ=ÉÅçåçãó=Ü~ë=ÄççãÉÇ=ÇìêáåÖ=íÜÉ=ä~ëí=íïç=óÉ~êë=ïáíÜ=dam=ÖêçïíÜ= ÉñÅÉÉÇáåÖ=S=B=ÇêáîÉå=Äó=ÇçãÉëíáÅ=ÇÉã~åÇK=eçïÉîÉêI=Å~é~Åáíó=Åçåëíê~áåíë=~êÉ= ÄÉÖáååáåÖ=íç=ÉãÉêÖÉ=ïáíÜ=áåÑä~íáçå=ëìêÖáåÖ=ïÉää=~ÄçîÉ=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâÛë=í~êÖÉí=çÑ= OKR=B=~åÇ=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ=ä~Äçìê=ã~êâÉí=ÅçåÇáíáçåë=êÉëìäíáåÖ=áå=ÇçìÄäÉ=ÇáÖáí=ï~ÖÉ= áåÅêÉ~ëÉëK=få=êÉëéçåëÉI=íÜÉ=`Éåíê~ä=_~åâ=Ü~ë=ÜáâÉÇ=áåíÉêÉëí=ê~íÉë=ëáåÅÉ=^éêáä=OMMTK= eçïÉîÉêI=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅó=íìêåÉÇ=Éñé~åëáçå~êó=íÜáë=óÉ~ê=~åÇ=íÜÉ=åÉï=`çåîÉêÖÉåÅÉ= mêçÖê~ããÉ=áë=î~ÖìÉ=çå=ÇÉí~áäë=çå=Üçï=íç=Ñáå~åÅÉ=~äêÉ~Çó=~ÇçéíÉÇ=ÑáëÅ~ä=ãÉ~ëìêÉë= ëìÅÜ=~ë=í~ñ=Åìíë=~åÇ=áåÇÉñ~íáçå=çÑ=éÉåëáçåëK=få=îáÉï=çÑ=íÜÉ=ìéÅçãáåÖ=ÉäÉÅíáçåë=áå= OMNM=~åÇ=OMNNI=~=éçíÉåíá~ä=åÉÉÇ=Ñçê=ÑáëÅ~ä=éçäáÅó=íáÖÜíÉåáåÖ=íç=ÉåëìêÉ=ëìëí~áå~ÄäÉ= ÖêçïíÜ=ê~íÉë=ÅçìäÇ=éêçîÉ=ÅÜ~ääÉåÖáåÖK== = = hÉó=ÑáÖìêÉë mçéìä~íáçå=EãáääáçåëF

PTVRT

damLÅ~éáí~=EAF

NQUSP

dam=EÅÜ~åÖÉF

RKQB

fåÑä~íáçå=

QKNB

`ìêêK^ÅÅK=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

bñíÉêå~ä=ê~íáåÖëW= cáíÅÜW===__JLéçë cáíÅÜW===^JI=ëí~ÄäÉ= jççÇóDëW=_~P= jççÇóDëW=^O= pCmW==__JLéçë= pCmW==^JI=éçëáíáîÉ

Macro balance

13 11 9

5 3

Liquidity

1 -1

Absence of event risk

Q JOKRB

dçîÉêåãÉåí=ÇÉÄíLdam

Resilience

7

JQKNB

oÉëÉêîÉëLáãéçêíë=EãçåíÜëF _ìÇÖÉí=Ä~ä~åÅÉLdam

How to read the chart? Moving out from the center reduces risk.

OMMU

Poland

Information

Average EM

QOB mÉÉêëW `òÉÅÜ=oÉéK eìåÖ~êó= bëíçåá~=

dê~éÜW=qÜÉ=éÉåí~Öçå=ëÜçïë=mçä~åÇDë=êáëâ=éêçÑáäÉ=íç= Graph: The pentagon shows Turkey's risk worse ÄÉ=ëíêçåÖÉê=íÜ~å=íÜÉ=~îÉê~ÖÉ=çÑ=~ää=ÉãÉêÖáåÖ=ã~êâÉí= than average in all respects including to its ÅçìåíêáÉë=ïÜÉå=áí=ÅçãÉë=íç=äçåÖÉê=íÉêã=Ñ~Åíçêë=ëìÅÜ= traditional competitor, Brazil, reflecting weaker ~ë=êÉëáäáÉåÅÉI==~ÄëÉåÅÉ=çÑ=ÉîÉåí=êáëâ=~åÇ=áåÑçêã~íáçåK liquidity, macro balance and absence of event risk.

=

2

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis July, 2008

Key data: 2002 2003 2004 2005 GDP (bill.US$) 198373 216831 255261 303965 GDP/capita (US$) 5187 5673 6684 7970 GDP, real (change) 1.4% 3.9% 5.3% 3.6% Investments/GDP 20% 19% 19% 20% Budget deficit/GDP -5.0% -6.3% -5.7% -4.3% Govt debt/GDP 42% 47% 46% 47% CPI inflation (%) 1.9% 0.8% 3.6% 2.1% Money demand (%) -1% 2% 4% 12% Stock prices (%change) 4% 24% 43% 25% Interest rates 8.5 5.6 5.8 5.3 Exch. Rate ($) 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.2 Trade/GDP (%) 51% 64% 85% 99% Oil price (Brent)$ 25 29 38 54 Billions US $ Export of goods 46734 60978 81841 96452 Imports of goods 53987 66713 87458 99219 Other: 0.7 0.8 1.8 1.4 Current account -5026 -4627 -10067 -3748 % of GDP -2.5% -2.1% -3.9% -1.2% Net FDI 3913 4302 12024 7069 Loan repayments 10964 16551 31321 30596 Net other capital flows -9851 -16226 -33276 -33917 Balance of payments 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.3 Reserves 26900 30481 34416 38658 Total debt 72563 87347 95989 98263 o/w short term debt 12840 17402 17842 17382 Source: OEF (Oxford Economic Forecasting) and SEB estimates Rating history Fitch (eoy) Moody's (eoy) S&P (eoy) Type of government: Next elections Other: Latest PC deal Recent IMF programs

2006 342535 8995 6.2% 21% -3.8% 48% 1.1% 12% 40% 4.1 3.1 122% 65

2007 423572 11141 6.5% 24% -2.2% 45% 2.4% 13% 37% 4.5 2.8 154% 73

2008 564161 14863 5.4% 26% -2.5% 42% 4.1% 5%

2009 552718 14585 4.7% 27% -2.1% 42% 2.9% 0%

5.9 2.2 180% 112

5.5 2.4 193% 106

117407 124450 1.3 -9330 -2.7% 9982 32244 -32896 0.3 44824 115702 19986

144771 160030 1.0 -15830 -3.7% 14557 30236 -28963 0.1 54679 135428 22394

167938 188632 1.1 -22945 -4.1% 13589 31760 -22404 0.1 69499 147109 24081

179570 202369 1.1 -24483 -4.4% 13971 33594 -23083 0.1 71643 157459 25769

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

A-

A2

A2

A2

A2

A2

A2

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

BBB+

A-

Coalition of centre-right Civic Platform and centrist Polish Peasant Party Presidential elections Oct. 2010. 1991 Stand-By agreements in -93 and -94. Extended Fund Facility (EFF) -91 C r e d it g r o w t h

4 5

Credit to private sector (% of GDP)

4 0 T o ta l

3 5

150

H o u s e h o ld s

2 0

100

1 5

50

102

95

2 5

61

50

60

58

40

1 0

0 4

0 5

0 6

0 7

ne kr ai U

Po

la

ua n

nd

ia

ia

Li th

La tv

a

C

03

un ga

ze c

h

C o rp o ra te s

0 2

H

-5 -1 0

to ni

R

ep

0

ry

0

5

Es

Percent (YoY)

3 0

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n

E x c h a n g e ra te

S t o c k m a r k e t (W IG 2 0 ) 4 00 0

5 .0

3 50 0

4 .5

3 00 0

4 .0

2 50 0

3 .5

Index

E U R /P L N

3 .0

2 00 0

U S D /P L N

2 .5

1 50 0

2 .0

1 00 0 02

0 3

04

0 5

0 6

0 7

0 2

0 8

0 3

04

05

0 6

0 7

0 8

S o u rc e : R e u te rs E c o W i n S o u rc e : R e u te r s E c o W i n

=

= = = = 3

SEB Merchant Banking Country Risk Analysis July, 2008

= = = = fãéçêí~åí>=qÜáë=ëí~íÉãÉåí=~ÑÑÉÅíë=óçìê=êáÖÜíëK= = = afp`i^fjbo= = = ^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=áåëíáíìíáçå~ä=áåîÉëíçêë=çåäóK=^ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ= EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåëF=áë=éêçÇìÅÉÇ=Ñçê=éêáî~íÉ=áåÑçêã~íáçå=çÑ=êÉÅáéáÉåíë=~åÇ=pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~= båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäFI=EíÜÉ=_~åâF=áë=åçí=ëçäáÅáíáåÖ=~åó=~Åíáçå=Ä~ëÉÇ=ìéçå=áíK= = léáåáçåë=Åçåí~áåÉÇ=áå=~ää=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=EêÉéçêíëI=ëíìÇáÉë=~åÇ=éìÄäáÅ~íáçåF=êÉéêÉëÉåí=íÜÉ=Ä~åâDë=éêÉëÉåí=çéáåáçå= çåäó=~åÇ=~êÉ=ëìÄàÉÅí=íç=ÅÜ~åÖÉ=ïáíÜçìí=åçíáÅÉK=^ää=áåÑçêã~íáçå=Ü~ë=ÄÉÉå=ÅçãéáäÉÇ=áå=ÖççÇ=Ñ~áíÜ=Ñêçã= ëçìêÅÉë=ÄÉäáÉîÉÇ=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäá~ÄäÉK=eçïÉîÉêI=åç=êÉéêÉëÉåí~íáçå=çê=ï~êê~åíóI=ÉñéêÉëë=çê=áãéäáÉÇI=áë=ã~ÇÉ=ïáíÜ= êÉëéÉÅí=íç=íÜÉ=ÅçãéäÉíÉåÉëë=çê=~ÅÅìê~Åó=çÑ=íÜÉ=ÅçåíÉåíë=~åÇ=áí=áë=åçí=íç=ÄÉ=êÉäáÉÇ=ìéçå=~ë=~ìíÜçêáí~íáîÉK= oÉÅáéáÉåíë=~êÉ=ìêÖÉÇ=íç=Ä~ëÉ=íÜÉáê=áåîÉëíãÉåí=ÇÉÅáëáçåë=ìéçå=ëìÅÜ=áåîÉëíáÖ~íáçåë=~ë=íÜÉó=ÇÉÉã=åÉÅÉëë~êóK= qç=íÜÉ=ÉñíÉåí=éÉêãáííÉÇ=Äó=~ééäáÅ~ÄäÉ=ä~ïI=åç=äá~Äáäáíó=ïÜ~íëçÉîÉê=áë=~ÅÅÉéíÉÇ=Ñçê=~åó=ÇáêÉÅí=çê= ÅçåëÉèìÉåíá~ä=äçëë=~êáëáåÖ=Ñêçã=ìëÉ=çÑ=íÜÉëÉ=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=çê=éêáåíÉÇ=ÇçÅìãÉåíë=çê=íÜÉáê=ÅçåíÉåíëK= = vçìê=~ííÉåíáçå=áë=Çê~ïå=íç=íÜÉ=Ñ~Åí=íÜ~í=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑI=çê=~åó=Éåíáíó=~ëëçÅá~íÉÇ=ïáíÜI=íÜÉ=Ä~åâ=çê=áíë=~ÑÑáäá~íÉëI= çÑÑáÅÉêëI=ÇáêÉÅíçêëI=ÉãéäçóÉÉë=çê=ëÜ~êÉÜçäÇÉêë=çÑI=ëìÅÜ=ãÉãÄÉêë=ã~ó=Ñêçã=íáãÉ=íç=íáãÉ=Ü~îÉ=~=äçåÖ=çê=ëÜçêí= éçëáíáçå=áåI=çê=çíÜÉêïáëÉ=é~êíáÅáé~íÉ=áå=íÜÉ=ã~êâÉíë=ÑçêI=íÜÉ=ÅìêêÉåÅáÉë=~åÇ=ëÉÅìêáíáÉë=çÑ=ÅçìåíêáÉë= ãÉåíáçåÉÇ=ÜÉêÉáåK= = pâ~åÇáå~îáëâ~=båëâáäÇ~=_~åâÉå=^_=EéìÄäF=áë=áåÅçêéçê~íÉÇ=áå=píçÅâÜçäã=pïÉÇÉå=ïáíÜ=äáãáíÉÇ=äá~Äáäáíó= ~åÇ=áë=~=ãÉãÄÉê=çÑ=íÜÉ=píçÅâÜçäã=píçÅâ=bñÅÜ~åÖÉK== = = `çåÑáÇÉåíá~äáíó=kçíáÅÉW== íÜÉ=_~åâDë=êÉëÉ~êÅÜ=áë=ÅçåÑáÇÉåíá~ä=~åÇ=ã~ó=åçí=É=êÉéêçÇìÅÉÇ=çê=êÉÇáëíêáÄìíÉÇ=íç=~åó=éÉêëçå=çíÜÉê=íÜ~å= áíë=êÉÅáéáÉåí=Ñêçã=íÜÉ=Ä~åâK=^åó=éêáåíÉÇ=çê=ÉäÉÅíêçåáÅ=ÇìéäáÅ~íáçå=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë=çê=é~êíë=çÑ=íÜÉ=êÉéçêíë= ãìëí=áåÅäìÇÉ=íÜáë=ÇáëÅä~áãÉêK=qÜÉ=_~åâ=ÇçÉë=åçí=í~âÉ=~åó=êÉëéçåëáÄáäáíó=Ñçê=ã~íÉêá~ä=ÖáîÉå=íç=íÜáêÇ= é~êíáÉë=Äó=êÉÅáéáÉåíëK=

= = =

4