Scale & Scope Presentation 2-09

CLIMATE CHANGE: Scale & Scope of the Challenge to Reduce Global Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Stephen D. Eule Vice President for Climate and Technology Institute for 21st Century Energy US Chamber of Commerce

1

Where We Are: Making Progress Energy Policy Act of 2005   

About $14 billion in tax credits for energy efficiency, clean coal, nuclear, renewables, etc. over 10 years Loan Guarantees for new technologies that reduce GHG and air pollution - $67.5 billion available $2 billion in standby support coverage for regulatory delay for 6 new nuclear power plants

Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007     

Renewable Fuels Mandate - 36 billion gallons of biofuels annually by 2022—about 20% of projected gasoline usage Vehicle Fuel Economy Mandate - 35 miles per gallon by 2020 Lighting Mandate - Phase out inefficient (e.g., incandescent) bulbs by 2014 Appliance Mandates Federal Facility Requirements - Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 & new federal buildings must be carbon-neutral by 2030

Energy Improvement & Extension Act of 2008 

$18 billion in tax credits - Extends many EPAct2005 tax credits

Farm Bill 

Significant portion of proposed $50 billion Farm Bill Conservation Programs for terrestrial sequestration

States  

RPS in over 26 states 24 states undertaking regulation

Net U.S. GHG emissions in 2006 down 3% since 2000. Net GHG emissions in 2008 will be lower than in 2000.

2

Projected Energy-Related CO2 Emissions over Time Show Steady Progress in Slowing Emissions Growth Projected energy-related CO2 emissions have steadily decreased since 2002.The EIA AEO 2009 projection of energy-related CO2 emissions in 2020 is nearly 1.7 gigatons CO2 below the comparable level in the AEO 2002. Projected cumulative emissions avoided from 2009 - 2020 total about 15 gigatons CO2.

AEO 2002

AEO 2009

Sources: EIA Annual Energy Outlook 2002 through 2009.

3

Changes in Net GHG Emissions1 2000-2006 from 17 Major Economies France -6.3% USA

-3.0%

UK

-2.9%

Germany

-1.7%

EU-15

-0.8%

Japan

-0.6%

Italy

0.1%

EU-27

0.1%

Australia

4.8%

Russia

3.9%

South Korea **

6.4%

Mexico **

6.8%

Brazil **

9.2%

South Africa **

9.4%

Indonesia **

9.6%

India **

9.9%

Canada

21.3%

China ** -10%

45.1% 0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

Includes emissions of carbon dioxide, methane, nitrous oxide, sulfur hexafluoride, hydrofluorocarbons, and perfluorocarbons, as well as emissions and removals of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide from land-use, land-use change and forestry activities. ** No UNFCCC data available for time period; 2001 through 2005 IEA data used. 1

Sources: UNFCCC, 2008 National Inventory Reports and Common Reporting Formats and IEA Online Energy Services.

4

Climate Change Technology: Meeting the Long-Term Global Challenge To reconcile the desire for global emission reductions and to provide the energy for continued economic growth and development, we will have to develop cost-effective technologies that transform the way we produce and use energy. CO2 Stabilization Curves

Projected World Primary Energy Demand, 1990-2095: A Reference Case Example

55

37

Ej/yr

Fossil Fuel CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

73

18

Sources: Battelle Global Energy Technology Strategy Project; Climate Change Science Program. 2007, Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results).

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Reductions in Global Emissions Needed to Meet Range of Possible Goals Cumulative global emissions reductions ranging from about 1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of CO2 equivalent would be need over the course of the century to meet a range of atmospheric concentration goals (450 to 750 ppm).

CO2 Emissions (GtCO2/yr)

Unconstrained Emissions Scenario

CO2 Stabilization Scenario

Cumulative Avoided Emissions ≈1,100 to 3,700 gigatons of cumulative CO2 emission reductions will be needed to meet a range of stabilization scenarios (≈750 ppm to 450 ppm).

1st GtC Avoided

Cumulative Emissions

0

Time Source: Clarke, L. et al. 2006. Climate Change Mitigation: An Analysis of Advanced Technology Scenarios. Richland, WA: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

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How Big is One Gigaton1 of CO2? Today’s Technology

Actions that Provide 1 Gigaton / Year of Mitigation

Coal-Fired Power Plants

Build 320 “zero-emission” 500-MW coal-fired power plants in lieu of coal-fired plants without CO2 capture and storage (73% CF)—the equivalent of nearly half U.S. coal-fired nameplate generating capacity

Geologic Sequestration

Construct the equivalent of 1,000 sequestration sites like Norway’s Sliepner project (1.0 MtCO2/year)

Nuclear

Build 130 new nuclear power plants, each 1 GW in size (in lieu of new coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage) (90% CF)

Electricity from Landfill Gas Projects

Install 7,700 “typical” landfill gas electricity projects (typical size being 3 MW projects at nonregulated landfills) that collect landfill methane emissions and use them as fuel for electric generation

Efficiency

Deploy 290 million new cars at 40 miles per gallon (mpg) instead of new cars at 20 mpg (12,000 miles per year)

Wind Energy

Install 170,000 wind turbines (1.5 MW each, operating at 0.45 capacity factor) in lieu of coalfired power plants without CO2 capture and storage

Solar Photovoltaics

Install 1.7 million acres of solar photovoltaics to supplant coal-fired power plants without CO2 capture and storage (10% cell DC eff’cy; 1700 kWh/m2 solar radiance; 90% DC-AC conv. eff’cy).

Biomass fuels from plantations

Convert to biomass crop production a barren area about 5.4 times the total land area of Iowa (about 200 million acres)

CO2 Storage in New Forest.

Convert to new forest a barren area about 2.5 times the total land area of the State of Washington (over 100 million acres) (Assumes Douglas Fir on Pacific Coast)

Gigaton = 109 Metric Tons Based on current technology and U.S. data. Source: Climate Change Technology Program. 2006. Strategic Plan. (Numbers updated and converted from carbon equivalents to carbon dioxide.) 1 2

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Important Transitions in Emitting Countries Over the Coming Decades: CO2 Emissions1 by Region - 2000 & 2050 About 80 to 90% of the expected increase in GHG emissions between now and 2050 will come from developing countries, primarily China, India & SE Asia. Non-Annex I Regions

CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

Annex I Regions

Includes Fossil and other industrial CO2. Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Results). 1

8

CO2 Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

Global CO2 Emissions1—2000, 2050 Reference Case, and 2050 at 50% of 2000

+106% (26.0 Gt/yr)

50.6 Gt/yr

-76% (-38.3 Gt/yr) 24.6 Gt/yr

-5 (-12 0% .3 G t/yr)

12.3 Gt/yr

2000 Emissions

2050 Reference Emissions

2050 Global Emissions at 50% of 2000 Emissions

Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM model results). 1

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To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050, Need Significant Reductions from Developing Countries Annual Gigaton CO2 and Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3 Annex I Countries

CO2, Emissions (Gt CO2/yr)

2050 Reference Emissions

Annex I Emissions at “0”

Non-Annex I Countries Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions

-62% (-20.1 Gt)

2000

-71% (-23.1 Gt)

2000

2050 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions (32.4 Gt)

2050 Annex I Emissions (0 Gt)

-59% (-10.7 Gt)

-84% (-15.2 Gt)

-100% (-18.2 Gt) 2050 Annex I Reference Emissions (18.2 Gt)

Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (12.3Gt)

2050 Annex I Emissions (3.0 Gt)

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (9.3 Gt)

2050 Annex I Emissions (7.4 Gt)

-85% (-27.6 Gt)

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions (4.9 Gt)

Includes fossil and other industrial CO2. 50% of 2000 global GHG emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 1 2

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To Achieve a 50% Reduction in Global CO2 Emissions by 2050, Per Capita Emissions from Developing Countries Must Go Down Percent Reductions from 2050 Reference3 CO2, Emissions per Capita (MMTCO2 per million pop.)

Annex I Countries 2050 Reference Emissions

Annex I Emissions at “0”

Non-Annex I Countries Annex I Emissions at 20% 2000 Emissions

Annex I Emissions at 50% 2000 Emissions

2000

-59%

-62%

2000

-84% -71% -85%

-100%

2000 Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (12.7)

2000 Non-Annex I Reference Emissions/ Capita (4.4)

2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0)

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.7)

2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (2.1)

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (1.3)

2050 Annex I Emissions/ Capita (5.2)

2050 Non-Annex I Emissions/ Capita (0.7)

Measured as MMTCO2 per million people, excluding LULUCF. 50% of 2000 global CO2 emissions equals 12.3 Gt. 3 Equals reduction from 2050 reference for that group (i.e., Annex I or Non-Annex I). Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations (MINICAM Model results). 1 2

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Percentage of Global Electricity Production from Low- or Zero-Emissions Technologies Across Scenarios by 2050 All three CCSP report models assume sufficient technological options—fossil power plants with CCS, nuclear power, and renewable energy—to allow for substantial reductions in global carbon emissions from electricity production. In all of the Level 1(≈450ppm CO2) stabilization scenarios, the electricity sector undergoes significant decarbonization by 2050 (see circles) and is essentially fully decarbonized by 2100.

MERGE

IGSM

MINICAM

Source: Climate Change Science Program. 2007. Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations.

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Scale of Changes in Power Sector: IEA “BLUE” Map: “50 by 50” Average Annual Power Capacity Additions to Halve 2005 Global CO2 Emissions by 2050: 2010 to 2050 Coal-Fired w/ CCS

35 500 MW CCS Coal-Fired Plants

Gas-Fired w/ CCS

20 500 MW CCS Gas-Fired Plants

Nuclear

32 1,000 MW Nuclear Plants

Hydropower

1/5 Canadian Hydropower Capacity

Biomass

100 50 MW Biomass Plants

Wind: On-Shore

14,000 4 MW Turbines

Wind: Off-Shore

3,750 4 MW Turbines

Geothermal

130 100 MW Geothermal Units

Photovoltaics

215 million m2

Concentrating Solar Power

80 250 MW CSP Plants

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

GW/year Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

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Scale of CO2 Storage 0.30

25

CO2 Storage Rate at ≈550 ppmv

0.25

20

Gt CO2/yr

0.20

0.15

Gt CO2/yr

0.10

0.05

0.00 Today

15

By 2050, about 1.4 GtCO2/yr may be required, ≈30 to 35x more than today. By the end of the century, approximately 20 GtCO2/yr may be required, over 400x more than today.

10

2020

5 Source: Data derived from the Level 2 (approx 550 ppmv) MiniCAM CCSP scenario. See Clarke, L., J. Edmonds, H. Jacoby, H. Pitcher, J. Reilly, and R. Richels (2007a). Scenarios of Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Atmospheric Concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of Synthesis and Assessment Product 2.1 by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research. Washington, D.C.: U.S. Department of Energy, Office of Biological & Environmental Research.

0 Today

2020

2050

2100

14

Scale of Changes in Transport Sector: IEA “BLUE” Map: “50 by 50” Average Annual Vehicle Sales: 2010 to 2050

Million Vehicles Per Year

100 H2 Fuel Cell Vehicles

80

Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles Biofuel Flex-Fuel Vehicles

60 40

Gasoline & Diesel Hybrids Gasoline & Diesel Conventional

20 0 Baseline 2050

BLUE Map 2050

Source: International Energy Agency, Energy Technology Perspectives 2008, Scenarios and Strategies to 2050.

15

Scale of Biomass Land Area 100%

Land Use Scenario ≈550 ppmv

90% 80% 70% 60%

Unmanaged Ecosystems

BioEnergy

50% 40% 30%

Managed Forests Pasture Land

20% Crop Land

10% 0% 1990

By 2050, land use required for bioenergy crops may account for approximately 4 to 5% of total land use; by 2095 approximately 20%.

2005

2020

2035

2050

2065

2080

2095

Source: Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Land Use Scenario with 0.5% annual agricultural activity growth.

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A Path Forward Involves … Progress in climate change technology to:  create new, better, and less costly solutions  facilitate means for change and a smooth transition

 Expanding finance & open trade in clean energy

goods and services  Protecting intellectual property rights  Increasing opportunities for multilateral collaboration  Developing a new international framework that is

realistic, economically sustainable and environmentally effective 17