Saeed Saman 08 09 11

‫ﺑﻼگ ﺳﻌﺪ ﺳﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﺴﺖ  ﺷﻬﺮ ﻮﻣﺎ ‪١٣٨٧‬‬

‫ﻣﻮﺷـﻚ ﺳﺘـﺨﺎ
!‬ ‫ ﺷﺮﻳﻄﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺤﺮ ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ  ﮔﺮﺟﺴﺘﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺮﻋﺖ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺑﺤﺮ ﻓﺮﮔﻴﺮ  ﺳﺘﺮﺗﮋﻳﻚ  ﺳﻄﻮ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺷﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺎﺗﺎ
‬ ‫?  ﺑﻌﺎ ﻣﺨﺘﻠﻒ ﺳﺮﺳــﺮ ﻣﻨﻄﻘﻪ  ﺧﺼﻮﺻﺎً ﻓﻀﺎ‪ 8‬ﺟﻼ‪ 6‬ﺧﻴﺮ »ﭘﻚ«  ﺗﺤﺖﻟﺸــﻌﺎ‪ 1‬ﺧﻮ ﻗﺮ ‪  .‬ﻳﻦ ﻣﺴــﻴﺮ‪ ،‬ﺑﺤﺮ‬ ‫ﮔﺮﺟﺴــﺘﺎ ﻧﻬﺎﻳــﺖ ﻣﺮ ﭘﺎ‪ 8‬ﺑﻪ ﺗﺠﺎ‪ G‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﮔﺬﺷــﺖ‪   ،‬ﻧﺘﻴﺠﻪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻛﺸــﻮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻧﻔــﺖ ﺑﺎﻻﺟﺒﺎ ﺧﻮ  ‬ ‫ﺻﻒ?ﺋﻰﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﻰ  ﻧﻈﺎﻣﻰ ﻗﺮ ﺧﻮﻫﻨﺪ ‪ .‬ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ  ?ﻏﺎ ﻧﺸﺴﺖ ﺧﻴﺮ ﭘﻚ‪ ،‬ﻫﺒﺮ ﺑﺮﺧﻰ ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‬ ‫ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻇﺎﻫﺮ ً  ﻗﺎﻟﺐ ﻳﻦ »ﺗﺸــﻜﻴﻼ‪ «G‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺴــﺖ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺧﻮ  ﺗﺄﻣﻴﻦ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﺘﻰ  ﺳﻘﻮ‪ N‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ  ﺳﻄﺢ‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺴــﻴﺎ ﺳــﺘﻘﺒﺎ‪ Y‬ﻛﺮﻧﺪ!   ‪ 6W‬ﻳﻦ ﺧﺎﻣﺎ ﻣﺴــﻠﻤﺎً ﺷــﺎﻫﺰﮔﺎ  ﺷﻬﻨﺸﺎﻫﺎ ﻋﺮﺑﺴﺘﺎ ﺳــﻌﻮ‪  8‬ﻣﻮﺿﻊ ﻳﮋ‪8‬‬ ‫ﺑﺮﺧﻮﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﻰ ﮔﺮ ﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮ ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻴﻢ ﭼﻜﻤﺔ ﺻﺎﺣﺒﺎ ﺻﻨﺎﻳﻊ   ﻏﺮ
ﻣﻰﺑﻮﺳــﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭼﺎ ﺗﻮﻫﻢ ﺷﺪ؛ ﻳﮕﺮ ﻋﻀﺎء‬

‫ﻳﻦ »ﺳﺎﻣﺎ« ﻧﻴﺰ‪ ،‬ﺟﻨﺎ
ﺳﺮﻫﻨﮓ ﻗﺬﻓﻰ‪ ،‬ﺣﻤﺪ‪8‬ﻧﮋ  ﻟﺖ »ﻧﻘﻼﺑﻰ« ﻟﺠﺰﻳﺮ ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏﻢ »ﭼﭗﻧﻰﻫﺎ«  ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﺘﺨﺮ ﻧﻮﻛﺮ‪8‬‬ ‫ﺳﺖﭘﺎ ﻣﻰﻧﻨﺪ‪? .‬ﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﺗﺎﻳﺨﭽﺔ ﭘﻚ ?ﺷﻨﺎﺋﻰ ﻧﺪ ﺑﺨﻮﺑﻰ ﻣﻰﻧﻨﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻄﻼ »ﻛﺎﺗﻞ«  ﺳﺎ‪b  ،1960 Y‬‬ ‫»ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮ«‪ ،‬ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﻤﺮﻛﺰ  »ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ« ﺳﺎ‪ 8‬ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺘﮕﺰ‪8‬ﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻏﺮ
ﺗﻮﺳﻂ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﭘﺎﻳﻪﻳﺰ‪ 8‬ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪» ،‬ﭼﺎﻗﻮ‬ ‫ﺳﺘﻪ‪  i‬ﻧﻤﻰﺑﺮ!«‬ ‫ﻟﻰ  ?ﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ »ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮ« ﺑﻪ ﭘﺎﻳﺎ ﺳﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﭼﺎﻗﻮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻳﻦ »ﺟﻨﮓ« ﻧﻴﺰ ﺳﺘﻪﻫﺎ‪8‬ﺷﺎ ﻓﺘﺎ! ﭼﻨﺪ ﺳﺎﻋﺘﻰ  ﻓﺎﺿﺎ‪» G‬ﺣﻀﺮ‪«G‬‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻋﺮﺑﺴــﺘﺎ ﺳــﻌﻮ‪  8‬ﭘﻚ  ﺧﻮﺷــﺤﺎﻟﻰﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﻣﺤﻔﻠﻰ« ﻳﺸﺎ  ﺳــﻘﻮ‪ N‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﻧﮕﺬﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﻮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺳﺮﺻﺪ‪8‬‬ ‫ﻳﮕﺮ‪  8‬ﺳﻮ‪j‬ﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺧﺒﺮﺳﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻴﺮ ﭘﺮﻳﺪ! ﻟﺒﺘﻪ  ﻧﺨﺴﺘﻴﻦ ﺳﺎﻋﺎ‪ ،G‬ﺧﺒﺮﮔﺰ‪8‬ﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻏﺮﺑﻰ ﺳﻌﻰ ﻛﺮﻧﺪ ﻳﻦ »ﺳﺮﺻﺪﻫﺎ« ‬ ‫ﺑﻰ‪ i‬ﺟﻠﻮ ﻫﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﺧﺒﺎ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮ ﻳﻦ ﺻﻞ ﻣﺘﻜﻰ ﺷﺪ ﺑﻮ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏﻢ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﺷﺪﻳﺪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ‪» ،‬ﺳﻘﻒ« ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﭘﻚ ﺳﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﺨﻮ ﺑﺎﻗﻰ ﻣﻰﻣﺎﻧﺪ‪  .‬ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ »ﻗﻴﻤﺖ«‪ ،‬ﺑﺮ ﺧﻼ‪? m‬ﻧﭽﻪ  ﻣﻜﺘﺐﺧﺎﻧﻪﻫﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻮﻧﺎ ﻣﻰ?ﻣﻮﻧﺪ   ‪l‬ﭘﺎﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﺮﺗﺒﺎً »ﮔﻮﺷﺰ« ﻣﻰﺷﻮ‪ ،‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮ ﻣﺤﻞ ﺗﻼﻗﻰ »ﻋﺮﺿﻪ  ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ« ﻧﻴﺴﺖ‪  .‬ﺑﻬﺘﺮﻳﻦ ﺷﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﺮ ﻳﻦ ﻣﺪﻋﺎ ﺳﻘﻮ‪ N‬ﺑﻰﻟﻴﻞ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺖ ﻃﻰ ﭼﻨﺪ  ﮔﺬﺷــﺘﻪ ﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻧﻔﺖ  ‪ 150‬ﻻ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﻫﺮ ﺑﺸــﻜﻪ‪ ،‬ﻃﻰ ﭼﻨﺪ  ﺑﻪ ‪ 100‬ﻻ ﺗﻨﺰ‪ Y‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺘﻪ‪  ،‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ‬ ‫ﭘﺮﺳﻴﺪ ﻳﻦ ﺗﻔﺎ‪ G‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﺎﮔﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻧﺘﻴﺠﺔ ﭼﻪ ﭘﺪﻳﺪ‪ 8‬ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ؟ ?ﻳﺎ  ﻋﺮ‪ p‬ﭼﻨﺪ  ﻣﺼﺮ‪  m‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ 50 F‬ﺻﺪ‬ ‫ ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺗﻘﻠﻴﻞ ﭘﻴﺪ ﻛﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻳﻦ ﻣﺎ‪ B‬ﺣﻴﺎﺗﻰ ﺑﻪ ﭼﻨﻴﻦ ﻧﻮﺳﺎﻧﻰ ﻓﺘﺎ؟‬ ‫ ﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎ ﺻﺤﺒﺖﻫﺎ  ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞﻫﺎ »ﻓﺮ« ﺳــﺖ! ﻟﻰ  ﻛﻤﺎ‪ Y‬ﺗﺄﺳــﻒ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ?ﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺘﺮﺳــﻰ ﺧﻠﻖﷲ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﺧﺒﺮ‪ 8‬ﻣﻄﺮ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﺷــﻮ‪ ،‬ﺣﺘﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚ ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻧﺰﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻊ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮ ﺳــﺖ ﻳﺎﻓﺖ‪» .‬ﺳــﺨﻦ«  ﺳــﻘﻮ‪ N‬ﺗﻘﺎﺿﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﻔﺖ  ﭼﻴﻦ  ﻫﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ‬ ‫ﻟﻴــﻞ ﺷــﺮﻳﻂ ﻳﮋ‪ B‬ﻗﺘﺼــﺎ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺎ ﻣﻰ?ﻳﺪ! ﺑﺪ ?ﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﻳﻦ ﺷــﺮﻳﻂ ﻳﮋ ﺻﻮﻻً ﭼﻴﺴــﺖ‪ .‬ﺳــﺨﻦ  ﺑﺎﻻ ﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫‪u‬ﺧﻴﺮ‪ B‬ﺳــﺘﺮﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻴﺎ ﻣﻰ?ﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺪ ?ﻧﻜﻪ ﺑﮕﻮﻳﻨﺪ  ﻛﺪ‪ F‬ﻛﺸــﻮ ﻧﻴﺎ ﻣﻰﺗﻮ ‪ 10‬ﻳﺎ ‪ 20‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮ ﺑﺸــﻜﻪ ﻧﻔﺖ ‬ ‫»‪u‬ﺧﻴﺮﺳﺎ‪ «8‬ﻛﺮ؟ ?ﻧﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺳﺨﻦ  ‪u‬ﺧﻴﺮﺳﺎ‪ 8‬ﻣﻰﮔﻮﻳﻨﺪ ﺑﻌﺎ ﻳﻦ ﭘﺮژﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﺧﻴﺎﻟﻰ«   ﻧﻈﺮ ﻧﻤﻰ?ﻧﺪ‪ .‬ﺣﺪﻗﻞ  ﻣﻮ‬ ‫ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻋﻨﻮ ﻛﺮ ﻛﻪ ﺟﻬﺖ ﻣﺼﺎ‪ m‬ﺟﺎ‪u» ،8‬ﺧﻴﺮﺳــﺎ‪ «8‬ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ  ﻋﻤﻞ ﺟﻮ ﺧﺎﺟﻰ ﺷــﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪  .‬ﻳﻨﺠﺎ‬ ‫ﺗﻮﺿﻴﺢ ﻫﻴﻢ ‪u‬ﺧﻴﺮﺳــﺎ‪ 8‬ﺳﺘﺮﺗﮋﻳﻚ ﻧﻔﺖ  ?ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎﻟﻎ ﺑﺮ ‪ 700‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮ ﺑﺸﻜﻪ ﺑﺮ? ﻣﻰﺷﻮ‪ ،‬ﻧﻤﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ  ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪8‬‬ ‫ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﺳﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﺄﺛﻴﺮ‪ 8‬ﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ‪u 1‬ﺧﻴﺮﺳﺎ‪ 8‬ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎ‪ 8‬ﺟﻮ ﻣﻨﺎﺑﻊ ﻧﻔﺘﻰ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ  ﺳﺖ ﻧﺨﻮ ﺳﺖ!‬ ‫ﻣﻄﻠﺐ   ﻫﻤﻴﻨﺠﺎ ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻴﻢ‪ .‬ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪  F‬ﻧﻈﺮ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ 8‬ﻫﻤﺎ ﺷــﻰ   ﻛﻪ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻢﮔﻴﺮﻧﺪ‪  ،‬ﺑﻄﻦ ﻧﻈﺎ‪F‬‬ ‫»ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﻮﻳﻊ  ﻣﺼﺮ‪  «m‬ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮ‪» ? 8‬ﻗﺎﺋﻞ« ﻣﻰﺷﻮﻧﺪ‪  .‬ﻳﻦ »‪ «i‬ﺑﻪ ﻫﻴﭻ ﻋﻨﻮ ﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰ ﺑﺎ »ﻗﻴﻤﺖ«  ﻣﻔﻬﻮ‪F‬‬ ‫ﻋﻠﻮ‪ F‬ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﺨﻮﻫﺪ ﺷــﺖ‪  .‬ﻋﻤﻞ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﻓﺮﻫﻢ ? ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎ‪  G‬ﻫﻤﻮ ﻛﺮ  ﻳﻦ ﮔﻮﻧﻪ »‪i‬ﮔﺰ‪8‬ﻫﺎ« ﺑﻮ ﻛﻪ ﭘﻚ‬ ‫ﭘﺎﻳﻪﮔﺬ‪ 8‬ﺷﺪ‪ .‬ﻳﻦ ﺗﺸﻜﻴﻼ‪ G‬ﺑﻴﺶ  ?ﻧﭽﻪ ﺣﺎﻓﻆ ﻣﻨﺎﻓﻊ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺷﻤﺎ ?ﻳﺪ‪ ،‬ﻇﻴﻔﻪ‪ i‬ﻫﻤﺎﻫﻨﮓ ﻛﺮ ﻧﺪ‬ ‫»ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ« ﺟﻬﺖ ﻗﻴﻤﺖﮔﺰ‪8‬ﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﺑﻬﻴﻨﻪ«  ﺑﻄﻦ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ ﻏﺮ
ﺳﺖ‪   .‬ﻣﺔ ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﻴﺎﺳﺖﮔﺰ‪ 8‬ﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮ ﻋﻀﺎء ﻳﻦ‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﺻﻄﻼ »ﺳﺎﻣﺎ« ﺑﺎ ﮔﺮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻓﺮﺷﺘﻪ ﺳﺎﻟﻦﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﭘﺮﮔﻞ  ﭘﺮﺷﻴﺮﻳﻨﻰ  ﺗﺮ{ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪  ،‬ﺧﺒﺮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺧﻮ‪ i‬ﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪8‬‬ ‫ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﻳﻦ ﺳــﺖ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻠﻴﺮﻏﻢ ﺳــﻘﻮ‪ 50 N‬ﺻﺪ‪ 8‬ﺑﻬﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﻔﺖ‪» ،‬ﺳــﻘﻒ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ  ﺛﺎﺑﺖ« ﻧﮕﺎ ﻣﻰﻳﻢ! ﺗﻮ ﮔﻮﺋﻰ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺟﻬﺖ ﺗﺨﺎ‪ u‬ﭼﻨﻴﻦ »ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤﺎ‪ «G‬ﺣﻴﺮ‪  ?G‬ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖﺳــﺎ‪ 8‬ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻧﻴﺎﻣﻨﺪ ﻳﻦ ﺑﺎ‪ i‬ﻳﺶ ﻳﺎ ﻓﻜﻞﻛﺮﺗﻰ ‬ ‫ﻋﺰ‪ F‬ﻳﻨﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻼﺳﻰ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﻮﻧﺪ!‬ ‫ ﺑﺎﺷــﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﻨﻮ »ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﮔﺎ« ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻧﻔﺖ‪ ،‬ﻛﺮﺳــﻰﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺖ   ﻳﻨﮕﻮﻧﻪ ﺟﻼ‪ 6‬ﺑﻪ ﺷــﻐﺎ‪ Y‬ﺧﻮ‬ ‫ ﻣﻰ?ﻧﺪ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﭘﺮﺳــﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎ‪ Y‬ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ﻟﺒﺨﻨﺪ  ﺧﻮ‪i‬ﺑﺎﻧﻰ  ‪F‬ﺟﻨﺒﺎﻧﻰ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﺑﺎﺑﺎﺗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻮ‪ Y‬ﺧﺒﺮﭘﺮﻛﻨﻰﻫﺎ »ﺳــﻘﻒ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ‬ ‫ﺳﺖ ﻧﺨﻮ ﻧﮕﺎ ﺷﺘﻴﺪ«‪ 50  ،‬ﺻﺪ ﺳﻘﻮ‪ N‬ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎ‪  F‬ﻛﺎﻣ ً‬ ‫ﻼ »ﺑﻰﺿﺮ« ﺗﺤﻠﻴﻞ ﻓﺮﻣﻮﻳﺪ‪? ،‬ﻳﺎ ﺣﺎﺿﺮﻳﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪8‬‬ ‫ﺻﻨﻌﺘﻰ ﻫﻢ ﮔﻮﺷــﺰ ﻛﻨﻴﺪ ﻛﻪ ‪ i‬ﺻﺎ‪G‬ﺷــﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻛﺸﻮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻧﻔﺖ  ‪ 50‬ﺻﺪ ﻛﺎﻫﺶ ﻫﻨﺪ؟ ﺑﻠﻪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻨﺠﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫»ﻋﻠﻢ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ« ﺑﻪ ﻳﻚﺑﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺳــﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻓﺮ ﺧﻮﻫﺪ ?ﻣﺪ‪  ،‬ﺷــﺒﻜﺔ ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎ‪ G‬ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ‪  ،‬ﺑﺎﻻﻓﺘﻦ ﺳــﻄﺢ ﺳﺘﻤﺰﻫﺎ‪ ،‬ﻫﺰﻳﻨﻪﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺑﻴﻤﺔ‬ ‫ﻛﺎﮔﺮ‪ ،8‬ﺑﻴﻤﺔ ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻ‪ ...  ،G‬ﻳﻚ ﻓﻬﺮﺳﺖ ﻛﺎﻣﻞ ﻳﺮ ﻣﺎ} ﻣﺎ ﻣﺼﺮ‪m‬ﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎ ﺟﻬﺎ ﺳﻮﻣﻰ ﻣﻰﮔﺬ‪ .‬ﺧﻼﺻﻪ ﻣﻰﮔﻮﺋﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﮔﺮ‬ ‫ﻗﻴﻤﺖ ﻧﻔﺖﺧﺎ‪ 50 F‬ﺻﺪ ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﻣﻰ?ﻳﺪ‪  ،‬ﻳﻚ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﺑﺎ‪i‬ﭘﺮ ﭼﻮ ﺟﻤﻜﺮ‪ ،‬ﻛﻪ ﻣﺸــﺘﻰ ‪ Yu‬ﻣﺴــﻠﺢ  ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎ ﻣﺮ‪F‬‬ ‫ﻧﺪﺧﺘﻪ‪ ،‬ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻧﻔﺖ ﺧﺎ‪ F‬ﺻﺎ ﻣﻰﺷــﻮ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﻟﺖ »ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻞ« ﺧﻼﻓﺖ ﻫﺰ‪B‬ﺳﻮ‪ ،F‬ﺑﻨﺰﻳﻦ  ﻧﻔﺖﺳﻔﻴﺪ  ﮔﺎﺋﻴﻞ  ﻣﺎ‪  G‬ﻫﺰ‬ ‫ﻫﺮﻣﺎ ﻳﮕﺮ  ﭼﻨﺪﻳﻦ ﺑﺮﺑﺮ ﻗﻴﻤﺖ  ﺷﺒﻜﺔ ﻗﺘﺼﺎ‪ 8‬ﻏﺮ
 ﻛﻨﺪ!‬

‫ﻣﻰﻧﻴــﻢ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎ ﻧﻔﺖ »ﻛﺎﺗﻞ« ﻧﺪﻧﺪ  ﺟﻼ‪ 6‬ﻣﺴــﺨﺮ‪ B‬ﭘﻚ  ﻳــﻦ ﻟﻘﻚﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺣﻮﺿﻰ ﻧﻴﺰ ﻫﻴﭽﻜﺪ‪  F‬ﺣﺪ‬ ‫ﻧﻤﺎﻳﻨﺪﮔﺎ ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻣﺎ ﺑﺰگ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻗﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻳﻔﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﻧﻴﺴﺘﻨﺪ‪  ،‬ﻋﻮ‪ p‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨﺪﮔﺎ ﺑﻨﺰﻳﻦ‪ ،‬ﻧﻔﺖﺳﻔﻴﺪ‪ ،‬ﮔﺎﺋﻴﻞ‪، ،‬‬ ‫ﻟﺒﺴــﻪ‪  ،‬ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪﻛﻨﻨــﺪﮔﺎ ﻳﮕــﺮ ﻟﻮ‪  F‬ﻣﺤﺼﻮﻻ‪ G‬ﻣﺼﺮﻓــﻰ ﻛﺎﺗﻞﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﻗﻌﻰ« ﻧﺪ! ﻳﻦﻫﺎ ﮔﺮ ﺿــﺮ ﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﻧﻴﺎ  ﺑﻪ ﺟﻨﮓ‬ ‫ﻣﻰﻛﺸﺎﻧﻨﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﻰ ﮔﺮ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺖﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺟﻬﺎ ﺳﻮ‪ F‬ﺿﺮ ﺑﺪﻫﻴﻢ‪ ،‬ﺋﻴﺲ ﺟﻤﻬﻮﻣﺎ  ﻋﻮ‪ G‬ﻣﻰﻛﻨﻨﺪ ﺑﻪ ﻧﺸﮕﺎﻫﺎ‪8‬ﺷﺎ ﺗﺎ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﺟﻮﺟﻪ‬ ‫ﺷــﻨﻔﻜﺮ ﻣﻌﺮﻛﻪ ﺑﮕﻴﺮ‪?  ،‬ﺧﺮ ﻛﺎ ﻫﻢ »ﺟﺎ‪ 8‬ﺳــﺖ  ﺷــﻤﻦ  ﻧﺸﺎ ﺑﺪﻫﺪ!« ﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻳﺎﺷــﺎ ﻧﻤﻰ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺖ ‬ ‫ﻳﻨﮕﻪﻧﻴﺎ ﺳــﻮﻏﺎ‪ G‬ﺑﻔﺮﺳــﺘﻨﺪ‪  .‬ﺣﻀﺮ‪ G‬ﺋﻴﺲ ﺟﻤﻬﻮ »ﻣﻨﺘﺨﺐ«  ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﻓﺮﺻﺖ ﺳــﺘﻔﺎ ﻛﺮﻧﺪ‪  ،‬ﻳﻚ ﺳﺎﻛﻰ ﺷﻨﺎﺧﺘﻪ ﺷﺪ‬ ‫ ﻣﺰﺧﺮ‪m‬ﮔﻮ  ﺑﺎ ﻫﻮﭘﻴﻤﺎ ﻛﺮ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺮ ?ﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺗﺎ ﻳﺸــﺎ ﺑﺎ ﭘﺎﺳــﭙﻮ‪ G‬ﻳﺒﺎ‪? 8‬ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰﺷﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻣﻘﺎ‪» F‬ﻣﺸﺎ‪ «G‬ﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮ‬ ‫ﺟﻤﻜﺮ ﻣﻨﺼﻮ
ﺷﻮﻧﺪ؛  ﺣﻖ ﻧﮕﺬﻳﻢ ﻳﻦ ﺋﻴﺲﺟﻤﻬﻮ ﻫﻤﺎ ﻣﺸﺎ  ﻫﻢ ﻻ‪. F‬‬ ‫ﺑﺎ ﻳﻦ ﺻﻒ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﮔﻔﺘﻴﻢ ﭼﺎﻗﻮ‪ 8‬ﺟﻨﮓﺳﺮ ﺳﺘﻪ‪ i‬ﻳﮕﺮ ﻓﺘﺎ‪ .‬ﺧﻨﺪ‪ B‬ﻣﻜﺶﻣﺮﮔﻤﺎ‪ 8‬ﻧﻮﻛﺮ ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﻧﻔﺖﻓﺮ‪ i‬ﻛﻪ ‬ ‫?ﻏﺎ  ﺧﻮﺷــﺤﺎﻟﻰ ﺑﺎﺑﺎ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺖﻓﺸــﺎﻧﻰ ﻣﺸﻐﻮ‪ Y‬ﺑﻮﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﺑﺰ‪ 8‬ﺑﻪ ﻧﻴﺶﺧﻨﺪ ﺗﺒﺪﻳﻞ ﺷﺪ؛   ﭘﺎﻳﺎ ﻳﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺻﻄﻼ »ﺟﻼ‪«6‬‬ ‫ﺳــﺮﭘﺎ ﻧﻮﻛﺮ‪ ،8‬ﻗﺮ ﺑﺮ ﻳﻦ ﺷــﺪ ﻛﻪ ﻋﻀﺎء  ﺳــﻬﻤﻴﺔ ﺧﻮ ﺑﻴﺸﺘﺮ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻧﻜﻨﻨﺪ!  ﻳﻦ ﺧﺒﺮ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖﺳﺎ  ﺳﻄﺢ ﺟﻬﺎﻧﻰ ﻫﻤﭽﻮ‬ ‫ﺑﻤﺐ ﻣﻨﻔﺠﺮ ﺷﺪ! ﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﺑﺮ‪? 8‬ﻫﺎ ﻛﻪ ﺑﺎ ?ﻣﺎ  ﻗﺎ‪ F‬ﺗﺒﺎﻃﻰ ﻧﺪﺷﺘﻪﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻦ ﺧﺒﺮ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ ﺑﺴﻴﺎ ﭘﺮﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﺷﻮ؛ ﻳﻦ ‬ ‫ﺣﺎﻟﻰ ﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﺳﻬﻤﻴﻪﺑﻨﺪ‪  8‬ﺑﻄﻦ ﭘﻚ ﺑﺎ ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻋﻼ‪ F‬ﺷﺪ‪ B‬ﻋﻀﺎء ﻓﻘﻂ ‪ 700‬ﻫﺰ ﺑﺸﻜﻪ   ﻓﺎﺻﻠﻪ !  ﺑﺎ  ﻧﻈﺮ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻳﻨﻜﻪ ﺑﻪ ﻃﻮ ﻣﺜﺎ‪ Y‬ﻋﺮﺑﺴــﺘﺎ ﻧﺰﻳﻚ ﺑﻪ ‪ 9‬ﻣﻴﻠﻴﻮ ﺑﺸــﻜﻪ ﻧﻔﺖ   ﺗﻮﻟﻴﺪ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ ﻳﻦ »ﺳﻴﺎﺳــﺘﮕﺰ‪  «8‬ﺑﻪ ﻋﻀﺎ‪8‬‬ ‫ﻓﺮﻫﻴﺨﺘﺔ ﭘﻚ »ﺗﺒﺮﻳﻚ  ﺗﺴﻠﻴﺖ« ﮔﻔﺖ! ﻟﻰ ﻫﻤﻴﺖ ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ‪» 1‬ﺧﺒﺮﭘﺮﻛﻨﻰ«  ﺟﺎ‪ 8‬ﻳﮕﺮ‪ 8‬ﻧﻬﻔﺘﻪ‪.‬‬ ‫ﺗﻘﺮﻳﺒﺎً ﺑﻪ ﺻﻮ‪ G‬ﻫﻤﺰﻣﺎ‪   ،‬ﻛﻤﺎ‪ Y‬ﺗﻌﺠﺐ‪ ،‬ﻣﻰﻳﺎﺑﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻳﺮ ﻧﻴﺰ ﺧﻮ  ?ﻣﺎ‪ B‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﺳﻴﺴــﺘﻢﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻣﻮﺷــﻜﻰ »‪-6‬‬ ‫‪ «300‬ﺳﻰ ﻣﻰﻛﻨﺪ! ﻟﺒﺘﻪ ﻳﻦ ﻣﻮﺷﻚﻫﺎ  ﺿﺪﻣﻮﺷﻚﻫﺎ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺎ‪ 6‬ﺗﺒﻠﻴﻐﺎ‪ G‬ﻧﻈﺎ‪ F‬ﺳﺎﻧﻪ‪ 8‬ﺟﻬﺎ‪ ،‬ﻃﺒﻖ ﺗﻮﻓﻖﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﺳﺮ‪ «8‬ﭘﻴﺸﺘﺮ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺰ ﻗﺮ ﺑﻮ ﺑﻪ ﻳﺮ ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ  ﺷﻮ‪ ،‬ﻟﻰ ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ‪» 1‬ﻋﻼﻣﻴﻪﻫﺎ«  »ﻃﻼﻋﻴﻪﻫﺎ« ﺑﻪ ﻣﻌﻨﺎ‪ 8‬ﺗﺤﻮﻳﻞ ﺟﻨﮓﻓﺰ‬ ‫ﻧﻴﺴﺖ! ﺑﻪ ﻳﻦ ﻣﻌﻨﺎﺳﺖ ﻛﻪ ﮔﺮ ﺑﻌﻀﻰﻫﺎ ﺑﻴﺶ  ﺣﺪ  ﻧﺪ ﺟﻔﺘﻚ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ‪ 1‬ﺟﻨﮓﻓﺰ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ  ﻣﻨﻄﻘﺔ ﺧﻠﻴﺞﻓﺎ‪6‬‬ ‫ﺑﻪ ﻛﺎ ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻪ ﺷــﻮ!   ﻳﻨﺼﻮ‪ G‬ﻫﺮﮔﻮﻧﻪ ﺗﻬﺎﺟﻤﻰ ﻣﻰﺑﺎﻳﺪ »ﻳﺮﻧﻰ« ﺗﻠﻘﻰ ﺷــﻮ! ﭼﻪ ﻳﺮ  ﻳﻦ ﻧﻮ‪ 1‬ﺟﻨﮓﻓﺰ ﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪،‬‬ ‫ﭼﻪ ﻧﺪﺷﺘﻪ ﺑﺎﺷﺪ‪  .‬ﻣﻰﻧﻴﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻟﺖ »ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻞ« ﺟﻤﻜﺮ ﻫﻴﭽﮕﺎ ﻧﺨﻮﻫﺪ ﮔﻔﺖ ﻳﻦ ﺳﻴﺴﺘﻢﻫﺎ  »ﻧﺪﻳﻢ!«‬ ‫ﻏﺮ
 ﻫﻤﺎ  ﻛﻪ  ‪ 22‬ﺑﻬﻤﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺖ ﻣﺜﺎ‪ Y‬ﻗﺮﺑﺎﻏﻰ  ﻓﺮﺳﺖ ﻛﻮﺗﺎ ﻛﺮ  ﺷﻬﺮﺑﺎﻧﻰ‪ ،‬ﺗﺶ  ﺳﺎ{   ﺧﺘﻴﺎ ﺑﺎﮔﺎ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺑﻬﺸــﺘﻰ  ﷲ ﺧﻤﻴﻨﻰ ﮔﺬﺷــﺖ‪ ،‬ﻳﻦ ﺷــﺮﻳﻂ  ﻧﻴﺰ ﺑﺮ‪ 8‬ﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺖ ﺑﻪ ﺟﻮ ?‪   .‬ﻳﻦ ﻣﻴﺎ‪ ،‬ﻏﺮ
ﺟﺎ‪ 8‬ﻋﻘﺐﻧﺸﺴــﺘﻦ‬ ‫ﻫﻢ ﻧﺪ‪ ،‬ﻣﮕﺮ ?ﻧﻜﻪ  ﻳﻦ  ﺳــﺮ‪  i‬ﺑﮕﺬ!  ﻋﻤﻞ‪ ،‬ﺷــﺎﻫﺪ ﺑﻮﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻜﻰ  ﺷــﮕﺮﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﻟﺖ »ﻣﺴــﺘﻘﻞ« ﺟﻤﻜﺮ‪،‬‬ ‫ﺷﮕﺮ‪ 8‬ﻛﻪ ﻣﺴﺘﻘﻴﻤﺎً  ﻃﺮ‪ m‬ﻣﺤﺎﻓﻞ ﺑﻴﻦﻟﻤﻠﻠﻰ ﻳﻜﺘﻪ ﻣﻰﺷﻮ‪  ،‬ﻃﻰ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻓﺮﺧﻨﺪ‪» B‬ﺳﻼ‪ F‬ﺳﺘﻴﻦ« ﭘﻴﻮﺳﺘﻪ ﺑﺮ ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﻣﺎ‬ ‫ﻣﻠﺖ ﺣﺎﻛﻢ ﺑﻮ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﻫﻢ ? ﻣﻜﺎﻧﺎ‪ G‬ﻻ‪ F‬ﺟﻬﺖ ﻗﺮ  ﻣﻠﺖ ﻳﺮ  ﺑﺮﺑﺮ ﻟﻮﻟﺔ ﺗﻮپ ?ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰﻫﺎ  ‪6‬ﻫﺎ ﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﻟﻴﻠﻰ‬ ‫ﻧﺪﻳﻢ ﻛﻪ ﻣﺮ ﻳﻦ ﺻﻮﺗﺒﻨﺪ‪ 8‬ﺗﻐﻴﻴﺮ ﻛﺮ ﺑﺎﺷــﺪ‪ .‬ﮔﺮﮔﺎﮔﻴﺮ‪ ،8‬ﻣﺎﺟﺮ‪ 8‬ﻃﺒﺲ‪ ،‬ﻓﺮﻫﻢ ? ﻣﻴﻨﺔ ﺟﻨﮓ ﺑﺎ ﻋﺮ‪ ...  ،l‬‬ ‫ﻫﻤﻴﻦ ﺳﺘﺎ ﻗﺮ ‪ .‬ﻳﻚ  ﻳﻦ ﻳﻚ‪  ،‬ﻳﮕﺮ ? ﻳﻚ!‬ ‫ﻫﻤﺎﻧﻄﻮ ﻛﻪ ﻣﻰﺑﻴﻨﻴﻢ ﺗﺤﺖ ﻋﺎﻣﺖ »ﻣﻘﺎ‪ F‬ﻣﻌﻈﻢ«  ﻳﺎﺳﺖ ﺟﻤﻬﻮ‪ 8‬ﺣﻤﺪ‪8‬ﻧﮋ‪ ،‬ﺣﺎﻛﻤﻴﺖ ﺳﻼ‪ F‬ﺳﺘﻴﻦ ﻣﺎ  ﺑﻪ ﻛﺠﺎ ﻣﻰﺑﺮ!‬ ‫ﭘﺲ  »ﺳــﺮﻋﺖ« ﮔﺮﻓﺘﻦ ﻧﺪ‪ 8‬ﻣﺠﺘﻤﻊ ﺑﺮ‪ l‬ﻫﺴــﺘﻪ‪ 8‬ﺑﻮﺷﻬﺮ‪  ،‬ﺳﺎ‪ Y‬ﺟﻨﮓﻓﺰﻫﺎ‪» 8‬ﻓﺮﺿﻰ«  ﻣﻮﻋﺪ ﻣﻘﺮ‪ ،‬ﻧﻘﺶ ﻣﻠﺖ‬ ‫ﻳﺮ  ﻣﻘﺎ‪» F‬ﮔﻮﺷــﺖ ‪ F‬ﺗﻮپ« ﻳﻨﻚ ﺑﻪ ‪ b‬ﺧﻮ ﺳــﻴﺪ‪ .‬ﻟﻰ  ?ﻧﺠﺎ ﻛﻪ ﻳﻦ ﺣﻜﻮﻣﺖ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻳﻚ ﻣﺠﻤﻮﻋﺔ ﺳﺖﻧﺸﺎﻧﺪ ﺳﺖ‪،‬‬ ‫ ﺗﺒﺎ‪ N‬ﺑﺎ ﻣﺴــﺎﺋﻞ ﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ ﻛﺸــﻮ ﻓﻘﻂ ﻣﻰﺗﻮﻧﺪ »ﺳــﺘﺨﺎ« ﻛﻨﺪ   ﺻﻮ‪ G‬ﻣﻜﺎ ﺑﻪ ﻗﻮ‪ Y‬ﺧﻮﺷﺎ »« ﺑﺨﻮﻧﺪ! ﭼﺮ ﻛﻪ‬ ‫ﺗﺼﻤﻴﻤﺎ‪ G‬ﻣﻨﻴﺘﻰ  ﻣﻮ ﻛﺸــﻮﻣﺎ ﻓﻘﻂ  ﻓﻘﻂ  ﺧﺘﻴﺎ ﻗﺪ‪G‬ﻫﺎ‪ 8‬ﺑﺰگ ﺳــﺖ‪ .‬ﺳﺮﻧﻮﺷﺖ ﻣﺎ ﻣﻠﺖ ﻳﻨﻚ  ﮔﺮ ﻳﻦ ﻣﺴﺌﻠﻪ‬ ‫ﻓﺘﺎ ﻛﻪ ?ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰﻫﺎ ﺗﺎ ﻛﺠﺎ ﻣﻰﺧﻮﻫﻨﺪ ﻧﻮﻛﺮﺷــﺎ   »ﭘﻚ« ﺟﻬﺖ ﭼﻨﺪ ﻻ ﺑﺎﻻ  ﭘﺎﺋﻴﻦ ﺑﻪ ﺧﻄﺮ ﺑﻴﺎﻧﺪﻧﺪ؟  ﻳﻨﻜﻪ ?ﻳﺎ‬ ‫?ﻣﺮﻳﻜﺎﺋﻰﻫﺎ ﻳﻦ ﺧﻄﺮ‪  G‬ﺑﻪ ﺟﺎ ﻣﻰﭘﺬﻳﺮﻧﺪ  ﻳﺎ   ﭼﭙﺎ‪ Y‬ﻧﻔﺖ ﺣﺎﺿﺮ ﺑﻪ ﺳﺎ‪i‬ﻧﺪ‪  ،‬ﻛﻤﻰ ﻛﻮﺗﺎ ﺧﻮﻫﻨﺪ ?ﻣﺪ؟‬