Relation Among Inflation And Macro Economic Variables

_________________________________ The Interrelations among Inflation and Major Fiscal, Monetary and Real VariablesA Case Study for the Gambia1

November 2009

Institutional Support Project for Economic and Financial Governance (ISPEFG) Department of State for Finance and Economic Affairs (DOSFEA) The Republic of Gambia The Quadrangle, Banjul, the Gambia

1

This paper has been prepared by a research team comprising Tamsir Cham, Director; Momodou Taal, Principal Economist; Amie Khan and Yaya Drammeh, Senior Economists and Ceesay Chiel, Economist in the Economic Management and Planning Unit (EMPU) and Tarun Das, Macroeconomic Adviser (ISPEFG); under the overall guidance and supervision by the Honorable Permanent Secretary Mr. Serign Cham of the Ministry of Finance and Economic Affairs (MOFEA); with key inputs from the Central Bank of Gambia (CBG) and the Gambian Bureau of Statistics (GBOS). Any questions and feedback can be addressed to: Either Tamsir Cham ([email protected]) or Tarun Das ([email protected]) 1

The Interrelations among Inflation and Major Fiscal, Monetary and Real VariablesA Case Study for the Gambia 1. Scope of the paper and data base The purpose of this paper is to examine the interrelations among inflation and the major monetary, fiscal and real variables for the Gambian economy. Inflation is measured by the rate of change of the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and that of the GDP deflator (GDPDF). Along with CPI and GDPDF, the following major monetary, fiscal and real variables are considered to estimate statistical relations among the variables. Variables to fit Statistical Relations CPI = Consumer Price Index with base 2004 (=100) GDPDF = Gross Domestic Product (GDP) deflator with base 2004 (=100) INF = Rate of inflation in terms of CPI = Annual rate of change of CPI INFDF = Rate of inflation in terms of GDP deflator = Annual rate of change of GDFDF YCuMP = GDP at current market prices YCstMP = GDP at constant 2004 market prices M2 = Broad money supply = Net Foreign Assets (NFA) + Net Domestic Assets (NDA) = Net Foreign Exchange Reserves + Govt. Borrowing + Non-Govt. Borrowings = Currency and coins in circulation + All deposits with banks Velocity = Velocity of money = YCuMP / M2 GD/US$ = Exchange rate = Gambian Dalasi per US dollar GOVEXP = Government Expenditure BankCR = Bank credits = Credits to Government (GovCR) + Credits to private (PvtCR) GovCR = Credits to Government = Government Borrowings PvtCR = Credits to the Private Sector = Private Borrowings TBYield = Average yield of the Government Treasury Bills YLD-3M = Yield for 91-day (three months) Treasury Bills YLD-6M = Yield for 182-day (six months) Treasury Bills YLD-12M = Yield for 364-day (12 months) Treasury Bills DR-3M = Deposit rate for three months deposits DR-6M = Deposit rate for six month deposits DR-12M = Deposit rate for 12 month deposits TBOUT = Total Treasury Bills Outstanding OBD = Overall Budget Deficit REV = Domestic Revenue of the Government BOPB = Overall Balance of Payments (BOP) Balance GRGDP = Real GDP growth rate GRM2 = Growth rate of money supply GRTB = Growth rate of Treasury Bill Outstanding GRCR = Growth rate of bank credits GEREV = Growth rate of revenue GREXP = Growth rate of expenditure

2

Data Base Two sets of data are considered for our econometric analysis: (1) Annual Time series data for 12 years from 1998 to 2009. (2) Monthly Time Series data for 33 months from January 2007 to September 2009. However, GDP figures are not available for the monthly series as GDP figures are estimated by the GBOS on only annual basis. 2. Regression Results For both annual and monthly time series data, linear and log-linear regression equations are fitted with the help of ordinary least squares (OLS) method. For both linear and log-linear equations, two sets of regression equations are fitted. In one set, CPI is regressed on other variables, while in the other set, the rate of change of CPI (i.e. the inflation rate) is regressed on other variables. The sets of data and the regression results are presented in the Annex Tables 1 to 20, which are self-explanatory (List of Tables is given in the Annex). Both the linear and log-linear regression equations indicate almost similar results for the annual time series data. They also show similar results for the monthly time series data. But, there are significant differences of results between the annual and monthly series. The major conclusions are summarized in Table-1 (differences of results are highlighted). Table-1: Major Conclusions Drawn From Regression Results Observations Annual Times Series Data Monthly Time Series Data (for both linear and log(for both linear and loglinear equations) linear equations) CPI has significant positive Money supply, GDP deflator, Money supply, correlation with Nominal GDP, Real GDP, CPI for Food, Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$, CPI for Non-food, Government expenditure, CBG Policy rate Government revenue, Treasury Bills outstanding Bank credit to govt. or others, CPI has no significant Treasury Bill Yields, Treasury Bill Yields, correlation with Overall budget deficit, Overall budget deficit, Deposit rates for 3 months, Deposit rates for 3 months, Deposit rates for 6 months, Deposit rates for 6 months, Deposit rates for 12 months, Deposit rates for 12 months, Overall BOP balance Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$, Government expenditure, Government revenue, Treasury Bills outstanding

3

Table-1-Continued: Major Conclusions Drawn From Regression Results Observations

Annual Times Series Data (for both linear and loglinear equations)

Monthly Time Series Data (for both linear and loglinear equations)

Money supply has significant positive correlation with

Consumer Price Index (CPI), GDP deflator, Nominal GDP, Real GDP, Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$, Government expenditure, Government revenue, Bank credits to govt., Bank credits to private sector, Treasury Bills outstanding

Consumer Price Index (CPI), Government expenditure, Government revenue, CBG Policy rate

Money supply has no significant correlation with

Treasury Bill Yields, Overall budget deficit, Deposit rates for 3 months, Deposit rates for 6 months, Deposit rates for 12 months, Overall BOP balance

Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$, Overall budget deficit, Dep. rates for 3, 6, 12 months, Government expenditure, Government revenue, Treasury Bills outstanding

TB Yield has significant positive correlation with TB Yield has no significant correlation with

Deposit rate for six months

Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$,

Money supply, Consumer Price Index (CPI), GDP deflator, Nominal GDP, Real GDP, Exch. rate of Dalasi per US$, Deposit rate for 3 months, Deposit rate for 12 months, Government expenditure, Government revenue, Bank credits to govt., Bank credits to private sector, Treasury Bills outstanding, BOP balance.

Money supply, Consumer Price Index (CPI), Deposit rate for 3 months, Deposit rate for 6 months, Deposit rate for 12 months, Government expenditure, Government revenue, Treasury Bills outstanding

4

Table-1-Continued: Major Conclusions Drawn From Regression Results Observations

Annual Times Series Data (Linear equations)

Monthly Time Series Data (Linear equations)

Rate of Inflation (Annual Rate of change of CPI) has significant positive correlation with

Growth rate of nominal GDP, Growth rate of revenue, Inflation in terms of GDPDF, TB Yields, Deposit rate for 6 Months

Food inflation rate, Non-food inflation rate, Rate of Depreciation of Dalasi

Rate of Inflation (Annual Rate of change of CPI) has no significant correlation with

Growth rate of money supply, Real GDP growth rate, Growth rate of govt. credits, Growth rate of pvt. credits, Growth rate of TB outstanding Growth rate of govt. exp., Overall deficit as % of GDP, Deposit rate for 3 Months Deposit rate for 12 months, Rate of Depreciation of Dalasi

Growth rate of money supply, Growth rate of govt. exp., Overall deficit as % of GDP, Deposit rate for 3 Months, Deposit rate for 6 Months, Deposit rate for 12 months, TB Yields for 3 months, TB Yields for 6 months, TB Yields for 12 months, GR of TB outstanding, GR of revenue Rate of Depreciation of Dalasi CBG discount rate, Deposit rate for 3 Months, Deposit rate for 6 Months

Growth Rate of Money Supply Inflation in terms of GDPDF, (M2) has significant positive Rate of Depreciation of Dalasi correlation with Growth Rate of Money Supply CPI inflation, (M2) has no significant Growth rate of nominal GDP, correlation with Real GDP growth rate, Growth rate of govt. credits, Growth rate of pvt. credits, Growth rate of TB outstanding Growth rate of govt. exp., Growth rate of revenue, Overall deficit as % of GDP, Treasury Bills yields, Deposit rate for 3 Months, Deposit rate for 6 Months Deposit rate for 12 months,

3. Policy Conclusions 5

CPI inflation, Growth rate of TB outstanding Growth rate of govt. exp., Growth rate of revenue, Overall deficit as % of GDP, Treasury Bills yields, Deposit rate for 3 Months, Deposit rate for 6 Months Deposit rate for 12 months,

Above analysis indicates that although consumer price index is positively and significantly correlated with money supply, the rate of inflation (i.e. the annual rate of change of CPI) has no significant relations with rate of growth of money supply. It is further observed that although inflation rate has significant positive correlations with CBG policy rate, treasury bills yields, rate of depreciation of Dalasi against US dollar and the growth rate of government revenues, inflation has no significant relations with the deposit rates, government deficits as percentage of GDP, and the growth rates of government expenditure, government borrowing from the markets and the total treasury bills outstanding. Therefore, the study does not support the general view that the money supply, government deficits, government borrowing and total domestic debt outstanding affect inflation. In fact the econometric relations clearly indicate that the CPI inflation, overall GDP inflation, treasury bills yields are unduly affected by the high discount rate announced by the Monetary Policy Committee (CPC) of the CBG. We need to adopt more scientific approach for determination of the Central Bank rediscount rate rather than taking the vote by the members at the end of bi-monthly MPC meetings. Here, we present a feasible methodology for determination of the CBG rediscount rate. Methodology for determination of CBG rediscount rate The starting point should the expectations of the inflation rate for the short and medium term. At the end of October 2009, annual point to point CPI inflation stood at 2.3 percent while the 12month moving average rate was 4.7 percent. Given the risks for international prices of oil, we can safely work on an inflation rate 5 percent in the basis of rational expectations. Then the depositors need some positive real interest (generally less than 2 percent world side) to continue with savings. Then, we need to allow reasonable transactions cost (generally less than 3 percent globally) and normal profit rate (generally less than 2 percent) for the banks to determine the collection cost of funds by the banks. That should be the rate at which no-risk treasury bills could be sold in the markets. Then CBG need to add maximum 2 percent for their transactions cost to determine the rediscount rate. Thus we get a reasonable rediscount rate of 14 percent. Expected annual inflation = 5 percent Average nominal deposit rate = Inflation Rate + Real rate of 2% = 7 percent Reasonable transactions costs of banks = 3 percent of assets or liabilities Normal profit rate = 2 percent of assets or liabilities Average annual cost of collection of funds by banks = 7 + 3 + 2 = 12 percent Reasonable yield no-risk treasury bills with maturity of one year or more = 12 percent CBG rediscount (Policy) rate = 12 percent + CBG transactions cost of 2 percent = 14%.

6

Annex Tables List of Tables Tables for the Annual Time Series Data Tables 1A, 1B and 1C: Yearly Trends of CPI and Related Variables from 1998 to 2009 Table-2: Description Statistics for the Annual Variables Tables-3A, 3B and 3C: Linear Correlation Matrix for the Annual Variables Tables 4A, 4B and 4C: Annual Rates of Selected Variables Table-5: Descriptive Statistics for the Annual Rates Tables-6A, 6B and 6C: Linear Correlation Matrix for the Annual Rates Table-7: Linear Regression Results for CPI = α + β X Table-8: Descriptive Statistics for the Natural Logarithms of Annual Variables Tables-9A, 9B and 9C: Correlation Matrix for the Natural Logarithms of the Variables Table-10: Log-Linear Regression Results for Log (CPI) = α + β Log(X) Table-11: Log-Linear Regression Results for Log (Y) = α + β Log(X) _______________________________________________________________________ Tables for the Monthly Time Series Data Tables 12A and 12B: Monthly Trends of CPI and Related Variables from Jan-2007 to Sep-2009 Table-13: Description Statistics for the Monthly Variables Tables-14A and 14-B: Linear Correlation Matrix for the Monthly Variables Tables-15A and 15B: Annual Rates of Selected Variables Table-16: Descriptive Statistics for the Annual Rates Tables-17A and 17B: Linear Correlation Matrix for the Annual Rates Tables-18A to 18F: Linear Regression Results for Y = α + β X Table-19: Descriptive Statistics for the Natural Logarithms of Annual Variables Tables-20A and 20B: Correlation Matrix for the Natural Logarithms of the Variables Table-21: Log-Linear Regression Results for Log (CPI) = α + β Log(X) Table-22: Log-Linear Regression Results for Log (Y) = α + β Log(X)

7

Table-1A: Yearly Trends of CPI and Related Macroeconomic Variables during 1998-2009 ITEMS CPI YCuMP YCstM M2 Velocit GD/US GOVEX BankC P y $ P R 1998 62.96 7236 15091 1312 5.52 10.64 1054.0 1006.3 0 0 1999 65.38 7959 16124 1470 5.41 11.40 1118.2 1184.5 0 0 2000 65.99 8787 16208 1982 4.43 12.79 1252.5 1479.8 0 0 2001 68.89 10708 17196 2367 4.52 15.69 2037.4 1825.6 0 0 2002 74.85 12489 17445 3203 3.90 19.92 2060.6 2221.2 0 0 2003 87.55 15819 17975 4593 3.44 28.53 2464.2 2468.9 0 0 2004 100.00 18491 18491 5432 3.40 30.03 3092.3 2707.3 0 0 2005 103.16 19080 18362 6145 3.10 28.58 3691.9 3573.3 0 0 2006 105.28 19878 19122 7758 2.56 28.07 4162.4 4456.8 0 0 2007 110.96 21656 20428 8274 2.62 24.88 4375.2 5137.5 0 0 2008 119.00 24446 21361 9796 2.50 22.43 4189.8 6324.2 2 0 2009 125.00 26822 22376 10586 2.53 26.00 3571.2 7427.1 0 0 Table-1B: Yearly Trends of CPI and Related Macroeconomic Variables during 1998-2009 ITE GovCR PvtCR TBYiel DR-3M DR-6M DRTBOut OBD MS d 12M 1998 512.70 493.60 15.00 12.00 12.00 13.50 1020.8 134.00 0 1999 583.90 600.60 13.25 11.00 11.50 12.25 1201.6 173.90 0 2000 815.80 664.00 12.25 11.00 11.25 11.75 1564.0 135.30 0 2001 1074.9 750.70 13.50 1.00 11.25 11.75 1919.5 911.70 0 0 2002 909.70 1311.5 17.50 9.50 9.50 10.00 2117.6 542.00 0 0 2003 654.00 1814.9 25.50 14.50 15.00 11.00 1948.1 617.50 0 0 2004 1195.6 1511.7 30.50 15.00 15.00 17.50 3018.5 34.70 0 0 0 2005 1762.2 1811.1 22.00 9.50 11.00 12.00 3809.0 868.40 0 0 0 2006 2127.4 2329.4 12.50 6.75 9.50 9.50 4174.3 959.40 8

0 0 2007 2482.7 2654.9 0 0 2008 2880.3 3443.9 0 0 2009 3234.7 4192.4 0 0 Table-1C: Yearly Trends during 1998-2009 ITEMS GDPD REV F 1998 47.95 832 1999 49.36 879 2000 54.21 995 2001 62.27 990 2002 71.59 1202 2003 88.01 1574 2004 100.0 2518 0 2005 103.9 2603 1 2006 103.9 3024 6 2007 106.0 3468 1 2008 114.4 3529 4 2009 119.8 4146 7

13.00 13.50 14.73 of CPI

0 8.95 9.45 9.95 4296.8 712.70 0 9.12 9.66 11.06 4697.0 1885.6 5 7 10.17 10.61 10.67 5005.2 321.60 9 and Related Macroeconomic Variables

BOPB 78 54 93 190 16 317 703 955 539 742 767 15

Table-2: Descriptive Statistics for Variables Variables

Mean

Std Dev.

Std Err

CPI

90.752

22.563

6.513

YCuMP

16114.3

6639.30

1916.60

YCstMP

18348.3

2188.06

631.638

M2 Velocity GD/US$ EXP BankCR

5243.16

3286.50

948.731

3.662

1.098

0.317

21.580

7.262

2.096

2755.81

1251.69

361.331

3317.71

2097.48

605.489 9

CV (%) 24.9 41.2 11.9 62.7 30.0 33.6 45.4 63.2

N 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

GovCR

1519.49

951.439

274.657

PvtCR

1798.23

1179.21

340.409

TBYield

16.936

5.926

1.711

DR-3M

9.874

3.631

1.048

DR-6M

11.310

1.932

0.558

DR-12M

11.744

2.132

0.616

TBOut

2897.71

1438.35

415.215

OBD

608.073

520.370

150.218

GDPDF REV BOPB

85.131

26.564

7.668

2146.60

1205.76

348.072

372.275

CPI

347.154

62.6 65.6 35.0 36.8 17.1 18.2 49.6 85.6 31.2 56.2 93.3

100.215

Table-3A: Linear Correlation Matrix YCstM Velocit GD/US YCuMP P M2 y $

12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

EXP

CPI

1.000

0.995

0.955

0.987

-0.936

0.785

0.934

YCuMP YCstM P

0.995

1.000

0.972

0.988

-0.946

0.789

0.924

0.955

0.972

1.000

0.975

-0.902

0.666

0.866

M2 Velocit y GD/US $

0.987

0.988

0.975

1.000

-0.934

0.715

0.921

-0.936

-0.946

-0.902

-0.934

1.000

-0.850

-0.949

0.785

0.789

0.666

0.715

-0.850

1.000

0.806

EXP BankC R

0.934

0.924

0.866

0.921

-0.949

0.806

1.000

0.947

0.956

0.979

0.980

-0.872

0.589

0.849

GovCR

0.918

0.919

0.947

0.955

-0.839

0.515

0.854

PvtCR TBYiel d

0.944

0.958

0.977

0.974

-0.874

0.631

0.821

0.118

0.120

-0.028

-0.016

-0.128

0.580

0.073

DR-3M

0.041

0.010

-0.088

-0.037

0.043

0.202

-0.145

DR-6M DR12M

-0.226

-0.226

-0.317

-0.326

0.263

0.173

-0.327

-0.190

-0.221

-0.313

-0.304

0.335

-0.012

-0.277

10

TBOut

0.973

0.969

0.946

0.979

-0.932

0.706

0.947

OBD

0.478

0.492

0.506

0.527

-0.544

0.278

0.609

GDPDF

0.985

0.987

0.927

0.961

-0.964

0.870

0.948

REV

0.987

0.978

0.954

0.987

-0.907

0.708

0.918

BOPB

0.605

0.560

0.421

0.524

-0.617

0.654

0.754

11

Table-3B: Linear Correlation Matrix BankC GovCR PvtCR TBYiel DR-3M DR-6M R d 0.947 0.918 0.944 0.118 0.041 -0.226 CPI 0.956 0.919 0.958 0.120 0.010 -0.226 YcuMP YcstM 0.979 0.947 0.977 -0.028 -0.088 -0.317 P 0.980 0.955 0.974 -0.016 -0.037 -0.326 M2 Velocit -0.872 -0.839 -0.874 -0.128 0.043 0.263 y GD/US 0.589 0.515 0.631 0.580 0.202 0.173 $ 0.849 0.854 0.821 0.073 -0.145 -0.327 EXP BankC 1.000 0.981 0.987 -0.149 -0.110 -0.416 R 0.981 1.000 0.938 -0.252 -0.234 -0.519 GovCR 0.987 0.938 1.000 -0.062 -0.007 -0.321 PvtCR TBYiel -0.149 -0.252 -0.062 1.000 0.606 0.795 d -0.110 -0.234 -0.007 0.606 1.000 0.613 DR-3M -0.416 -0.519 -0.321 0.795 0.613 1.000 DR-6M DR-0.373 -0.368 -0.367 0.636 0.467 0.710 12M 0.957 0.964 0.924 -0.051 -0.149 -0.417 TBOut 0.514 0.537 0.481 -0.249 -0.478 -0.468 OBD 0.900 0.861 0.906 0.230 0.044 -0.160 GDPDF 0.962 0.952 0.944 0.003 -0.005 -0.308 REV 0.389 0.428 0.346 0.339 0.029 -0.020 BOPB Table-3C: Linear Correlation Matrix (Pearson R) TBOut OBD GDPDF REV BOPB CPI CPI 0.973 0.478 0.985 0.987 0.605 1.000 YCuMP 0.969 0.492 0.987 0.978 0.560 0.995 YCstM 0.946 0.506 0.927 0.954 0.421 0.955 P M2 0.979 0.527 0.961 0.987 0.524 0.987 Velocit -0.932 -0.544 -0.964 -0.907 -0.617 -0.936 y GD/US 0.706 0.278 0.870 0.708 0.654 0.785 12

DR12M -0.190 -0.221 -0.313 -0.304 0.335 -0.012 -0.277 -0.373 -0.368 -0.367 0.636 0.467 0.710 1.000 -0.298 -0.468 -0.175 -0.215 0.136 M2 0.987 0.988 0.975 1.000 -0.934 0.715

$ EXP BankC R GovCR PvtCR TBYiel d DR-3M DR-6M DR12M TBOut OBD GDPDF REV BOPB

0.947 0.957

0.609 0.514

0.948 0.900

0.918 0.962

0.754 0.389

0.934 0.947

0.921 0.980

0.964 0.924 -0.051

0.537 0.481 -0.249

0.861 0.906 0.230

0.952 0.944 0.003

0.428 0.346 0.339

0.918 0.944 0.118

0.955 0.974 -0.016

-0.149 -0.417 -0.298

-0.478 -0.468 -0.468

0.044 -0.160 -0.175

-0.005 -0.308 -0.215

0.029 -0.020 0.136

0.041 -0.226 -0.190

-0.037 -0.326 -0.304

1.000 0.542 0.952 0.980 0.589

0.542 1.000 0.489 0.430 0.525

0.952 0.489 1.000 0.953 0.647

0.980 0.430 0.953 1.000 0.553

0.589 0.525 0.647 0.553 1.000

0.973 0.478 0.985 0.987 0.605

0.979 0.527 0.961 0.987 0.524

13

Items 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Inf 3.8 0.9 4.4 8.7 17.0 14.2 3.2 2.1 5.4 7.2 5.0

Table-4A: Annual Rates (in percentage) GR-CRY GR-CSY GR-M2 GR-REV 10.0 6.8 12.1 5.7 10.4 0.5 34.8 13.3 21.9 6.1 19.4 -0.6 16.6 1.4 35.3 21.4 26.7 3.0 43.4 31.0 16.9 2.9 18.3 60.0 3.2 -0.7 13.1 3.4 4.2 4.1 26.2 16.1 8.9 6.8 6.7 14.7 12.9 4.6 18.4 1.8 9.7 4.8 8.1 17.5

DEP(+) 7.1 12.2 22.7 27.0 43.2 5.3 -4.8 -1.8 -11.4 -9.8 15.9

Items 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Table-4B: Annual Rates (in percentage) GR-EXP GR-CR GR-GCR GR-PCR TBYield 6.1 17.7 13.9 21.7 13.3 12.0 24.9 39.7 10.6 12.3 62.7 23.4 31.8 13.1 13.5 1.1 21.7 -15.4 74.7 17.5 19.6 11.2 -28.1 38.4 25.5 25.5 9.7 82.8 -16.7 30.5 19.4 32.0 47.4 19.8 22.0 12.7 24.7 20.7 28.6 12.5 5.1 15.3 16.7 14.0 13.0 -4.2 23.1 16.0 29.7 13.5 -14.8 17.4 12.3 21.7 14.7

DR-3M 11.0 11.0 1.0 9.5 14.5 15.0 9.5 6.8 9.0 9.1 10.2

Items 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009

Table-4C: Annual Rates (in percentage) DR-6M DR-12M GR-TB OBD/Y INF-DF 11.5 12.3 17.7 2.2 3.0 11.3 11.8 30.2 0.9 9.8 11.3 11.8 22.7 8.5 14.9 9.5 10.0 10.3 2.6 15.0 15.0 11.0 -8.0 3.0 22.9 15.0 17.5 54.9 3.7 13.6 11.0 12.0 26.2 6.0 3.9 9.5 9.5 9.6 5.1 0.0 9.5 10.0 2.9 -0.1 2.0 9.7 11.1 9.3 2.0 8.0 10.6 10.7 6.6 3.0 4.7

Inf 3.8 0.9 4.4 8.7 17.0 14.2 3.2 2.1 5.4 7.2 5.0

14

Table-5: Descriptive Statistics for Annual Rates Variable Mean Std Dev. Inf 6.537 5.013 GR-CRY 12.851 7.145 GR-CSY 3.674 2.514 GR-M2 21.436 12.059 GR-REV 16.748 17.130 DEP(+) 9.592 16.824 GR-EXP 13.202 20.065 GR-CR 20.092 6.583 GR-GCR 21.621 29.805 GR-PCR 23.229 22.162 TBYield 17.112 6.182 DR-3M 9.681 3.743 DR-6M 11.248 2.014 DR-12M 11.584 2.160 GR-TB 16.587 16.791 OBD/Y 3.342 2.426 INF-DF 8.890 7.052

Inf GR-CRY GR-CSY GR-M2 GR-REV DEP(+) GR-EXP GR-CR GR-GCR GR-PCR TBYield DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M GR-TB OBD/Y INF-DF

Std Err 1.511 2.154 0.758 3.636 5.165 5.073 6.050 1.985 8.986 6.682 1.864 1.129 0.607 0.651 5.063 0.731 2.126

Table-6A: Correlation Matrix for Annual Rates Inf GR-CRY GR-CSY GR-M2 GR-REV 1.000 0.743 -0.043 0.381 0.716 0.743 1.000 0.126 0.531 0.337 -0.043 0.126 1.000 -0.476 -0.189 0.381 0.531 -0.476 1.000 0.245 0.716 0.337 -0.189 0.245 1.000 0.497 0.774 -0.142 0.678 0.244 0.074 0.435 0.031 0.156 -0.009 -0.749 -0.559 -0.421 -0.051 -0.724 -0.199 -0.330 -0.181 -0.420 0.266 0.056 0.135 -0.161 0.460 -0.282 0.795 0.403 -0.418 0.223 0.775 0.596 0.114 -0.327 0.228 0.691 0.734 0.599 -0.162 0.320 0.684 0.404 0.209 -0.152 -0.128 0.636 -0.052 -0.114 -0.311 -0.171 0.389 -0.079 0.139 -0.080 -0.019 -0.169 0.746 0.931 -0.243 0.698 0.405

15

N 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 11

DEP(+) 0.497 0.774 -0.142 0.678 0.244 1.000 0.255 -0.329 -0.516 0.392 0.292 0.139 0.493 -0.043 -0.242 0.187 0.811

Inf GR-CRY GR-CSY GR-M2 GR-REV DEP(+) GR-EXP GR-CR GR-GCR GR-PCR TBYield DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M GR-TB OBD/Y INF-DF

Table-6B: Correlation Matrix for Annual Rates GR-EXP GR-CR GR-GCR GR-PCR TBYield 0.074 -0.749 -0.199 0.056 0.795 0.435 -0.559 -0.330 0.135 0.403 0.031 -0.421 -0.181 -0.161 -0.418 0.156 -0.051 -0.420 0.460 0.223 -0.009 -0.724 0.266 -0.282 0.775 0.255 -0.329 -0.516 0.392 0.292 1.000 0.077 0.330 -0.340 0.212 0.077 1.000 0.113 0.222 -0.462 0.330 0.113 1.000 -0.831 0.264 -0.340 0.222 -0.831 1.000 -0.224 0.212 -0.462 0.264 -0.224 1.000 -0.452 -0.565 0.016 -0.111 0.639 0.368 -0.615 0.208 -0.414 0.816 0.330 -0.388 0.748 -0.692 0.690 0.371 0.041 0.910 -0.656 0.383 0.729 0.368 0.245 -0.098 0.161 0.405 -0.400 -0.263 0.196 0.547

DR-3M 0.596 0.114 -0.327 0.228 0.691 0.139 -0.452 -0.565 0.016 -0.111 0.639 1.000 0.607 0.441 0.128 -0.570 0.241

Inf GR-CRY GR-CSY GR-M2 GR-REV DEP(+) GR-EXP GR-CR GR-GCR GR-PCR TBYield DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M GR-TB OBD/Y INF-DF

Table-6C: Correlation Matrix for Annual Rates DR-6M DR-12M GR-TB OBD/Y INF-DF 0.734 0.404 -0.052 -0.079 0.746 0.599 0.209 -0.114 0.139 0.931 -0.162 -0.152 -0.311 -0.080 -0.243 0.320 -0.128 -0.171 -0.019 0.698 0.684 0.636 0.389 -0.169 0.405 0.493 -0.043 -0.242 0.187 0.811 0.368 0.330 0.371 0.729 0.405 -0.615 -0.388 0.041 0.368 -0.400 0.208 0.748 0.910 0.245 -0.263 -0.414 -0.692 -0.656 -0.098 0.196 0.816 0.690 0.383 0.161 0.547 0.607 0.441 0.128 -0.570 0.241 1.000 0.709 0.341 0.121 0.645 0.709 1.000 0.852 0.141 0.258 0.341 0.852 1.000 0.240 -0.002 0.121 0.141 0.240 1.000 0.152 0.645 0.258 -0.002 0.152 1.000

DEP(+) 0.497 0.774 -0.142 0.678 0.244 1.000 0.255 -0.329 -0.516 0.392 0.292 0.139 0.493 -0.043 -0.242 0.187 0.811

16

Table-7: Linear Regression Results: Dependent Variable = Y X Α Std t β Std t R² Error Error CPI M2 55.20 2.099 26.29 0.007 0.000 19.74 0.975 9 8 5 CPI GDP 19.51 4.081 4.781 0.837 0.046 18.22 0.971 DF 0 0 CPI GD/$ 38.13 13.80 2.762 2.438 0.609 4.003 0.616 5 8 CPI GEXP 44.36 6.132 7.236 0.017 0.002 8.249 0.872 8

=α+βX R

YIEL D YIEL D

Y

DR6 M GD/$

10.63 6.729

6.748 4.767

1.575 1.411

0.987 0.985 0.785 0.934

2.437

0.589

4.139

0.631

0.795

0.473

0.210

2.249

0.336

0.580

Table-8: Descriptive Statistics for Natural Logarithms of the Variables Variables CPI YCuMP YCstMP M2 Velocity GD/US$ EXP BankCR GovCR PvtCR TBYield DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M TBOut OBD GDPDF REV BOPB

Mean 4.479 9.599 9.811 8.341 1.258 3.010 7.805 7.918 7.140 7.279 2.783 2.150 2.413 2.450 7.842 5.964 4.394 7.510 5.192

Std Dev. 0.254 0.453 0.118 0.742 0.293 0.385 0.532 0.654 0.645 0.711 0.305 0.711 0.161 0.164 0.553 1.134 0.342 0.610 1.505

Std Err 0.073 0.131 0.034 0.214 0.085 0.111 0.154 0.189 0.186 0.205 0.088 0.205 0.046 0.047 0.160 0.327 0.099 0.176 0.435

17

CV(%) 5.7 4.7 1.2 8.9 23.3 12.8 6.8 8.3 9.0 9.8 10.9 33.1 6.7 6.7 7.1 19.0 7.8 8.1 29.0

N 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12 12

Table-9A: Correlation Matrix (R) for Natural Logarithms of Variables CPI YCuMP YCstMP M2 Velocit GD/US$ EXP y CPI 1.000 0.987 0.949 0.985 -0.965 0.846 0.942 YCuMP 0.987 1.000 0.957 0.996 -0.973 0.893 0.964 YCstM 0.949 0.957 1.000 0.955 -0.936 0.744 0.889 P M2 0.985 0.996 0.955 1.000 -0.990 0.881 0.968 Velocit -0.965 -0.973 -0.936 -0.990 1.000 -0.848 -0.958 y GD/US 0.846 0.893 0.744 0.881 -0.848 1.000 0.900 $ EXP 0.942 0.964 0.889 0.968 -0.958 0.900 1.000 BankC 0.969 0.975 0.982 0.983 -0.978 0.790 0.936 R GovCR 0.903 0.894 0.929 0.907 -0.912 0.646 0.883 PvtCR 0.967 0.980 0.968 0.983 -0.972 0.840 0.921 TBYiel 0.164 0.205 -0.004 0.146 -0.052 0.524 0.172 d DR-3M 0.192 0.118 0.040 0.118 -0.118 0.162 -0.023 DR-6M -0.236 -0.226 -0.344 -0.279 0.357 0.047 -0.295 DR-0.233 -0.273 -0.358 -0.331 0.414 -0.148 -0.312 12M TBOut 0.962 0.970 0.941 0.976 -0.971 0.825 0.966 OBD 0.368 0.416 0.441 0.449 -0.491 0.297 0.512 GDPDF 0.980 0.995 0.923 0.990 -0.967 0.926 0.971 REV 0.994 0.975 0.939 0.978 -0.967 0.825 0.939 BOPB 0.412 0.395 0.229 0.405 -0.412 0.477 0.540

18

Table-9B: Correlation Matrix for Natural Logarithms of Variables

CPI YCuMP YCstM P M2 Velocit y GD/US $ EXP BankC R GovCR PvtCR TBYiel d DR-3M DR-6M DR12M TBOut OBD GDPDF REV BOPB

BankC R 0.969 0.975 0.982

GovCR 0.903 0.894 0.929

0.983 -0.978

PvtCR

DR-3M

DR-6M

0.967 0.980 0.968

TBYiel d 0.164 0.205 -0.004

0.192 0.118 0.040

-0.236 -0.226 -0.344

DR12M -0.233 -0.273 -0.358

0.907 -0.912

0.983 -0.972

0.146 -0.052

0.118 -0.118

-0.279 0.357

-0.331 0.414

0.790

0.646

0.840

0.524

0.162

0.047

-0.148

0.936 1.000

0.883 0.953

0.921 0.981

0.172 -0.004

-0.023 0.049

-0.295 -0.402

-0.312 -0.414

0.953 0.981 -0.004

1.000 0.877 -0.187

0.877 1.000 0.114

-0.187 0.114 1.000

-0.103 0.169 0.379

-0.543 -0.302 0.740

-0.379 -0.407 0.563

0.049 -0.402 -0.414

-0.103 -0.543 -0.379

0.169 -0.302 -0.407

0.379 0.740 0.563

1.000 0.265 0.199

0.265 1.000 0.730

0.199 0.730 1.000

0.977 0.505 0.954 0.965 0.303

0.963 0.484 0.864 0.921 0.306

0.940 0.477 0.964 0.951 0.275

0.046 -0.342 0.273 0.113 0.258

0.006 -0.425 0.142 0.189 -0.035

-0.398 -0.604 -0.181 -0.278 0.127

-0.331 -0.775 -0.238 -0.237 0.166

19

Table-9C: Correlation Matrix for Natural Logarithms of Variables

CPI YCuMP YCstM P M2 Velocit y GD/US $ EXP BankC R GovCR PvtCR TBYiel d DR-3M DR-6M DR12M TBOut OBD GDPDF REV BOPB

TBOut 0.962 0.970 0.941

OBD 0.368 0.416 0.441

GDPDF 0.980 0.995 0.923

REV 0.994 0.975 0.939

BOPB 0.412 0.395 0.229

CPI 1.000 0.987 0.949

M2 0.985 0.996 0.955

0.976 -0.971

0.449 -0.491

0.990 -0.967

0.978 -0.967

0.405 -0.412

0.985 -0.965

1.000 -0.990

0.825

0.297

0.926

0.825

0.477

0.846

0.881

0.966 0.977

0.512 0.505

0.971 0.954

0.939 0.965

0.540 0.303

0.942 0.969

0.968 0.983

0.963 0.940 0.046

0.484 0.477 -0.342

0.864 0.964 0.273

0.921 0.951 0.113

0.306 0.275 0.258

0.903 0.967 0.164

0.907 0.983 0.146

0.006 -0.398 -0.331

-0.425 -0.604 -0.775

0.142 -0.181 -0.238

0.189 -0.278 -0.237

-0.035 0.127 0.166

0.192 -0.236 -0.233

0.118 -0.279 -0.331

1.000 0.461 0.961 0.968 0.401

0.461 1.000 0.400 0.338 0.252

0.961 0.400 1.000 0.968 0.445

0.968 0.338 0.968 1.000 0.421

0.401 0.252 0.445 0.421 1.000

0.962 0.368 0.980 0.994 0.412

0.976 0.449 0.990 0.978 0.405

Table-10: X

α

Log-Linear Regression Results: Dependent Variable = Log(CPI) = α + β Log(X) Std Error

t YCUR

0.837 1.663

0.276

GDP DF BKCR

1.278

TBO UT

M2

β

Std Error

R²

R

Adj. R²

0.974

0.987

0.971

0.969

0.985

0.966

0.961

0.980

0.957

0.939

0.969

0.933

0.925

0.962

0.918

t 0.554

0.029

0.338

0.019

0.205

3.036 10.47 1 6.237

0.729

0.046

1.496

0.242

6.187

0.377

0.030

1.011

0.313

3.232

0.442

0.040

0.159

20

19.30 0 17.79 1 15.67 4 12.37 9 11.11 2

GEXP

0.965

0.399

2.422

0.450

0.051

8.836

0.886

0.942

0.875

GD/$

2.800

0.337

8.298

0.558

0.111

5.013

0.715

0.846

0.687

Table-11: Log-Linear Regression Log(Y) = α Y X α Std t Error Yield CPI 1.905 1.677 1.136 Yield DR12 0.212 1.196 0.177 M M2 YCST 50.60 5.808 8.712 GD/$ GDPD F 1.576 0.592 2.662 BKCR YCST 45.55 3.225 14.12 DR6M DR12 M 0.656 0.522 1.257 TBOU GEXP T 0.005 0.670 0.007 BOPB GD/$ 0.419 3.290 0.127 YCST BKCR 8.409 0.085 99.15 7 YCUR GEXP 3.185 0.557 5.719 VELC T GEXP GOVC R YIELD

BKCR

4.732

0.234

REV TBOU T DR6M

0.714 0.784

DR12 M OBD

OBD

1.661 1.662 0.601 3.117

EXP

2.565

4.529

CPI

YCUR

0.837 7.306 4.280 5.096 -

M2

YCUR

GD/$ REV

YCUR YCUR

GEXP

YCUR

0.976 0.175

20.25 4 2.325 2.119 0.616 17.84 2 0.566

0.908

3.036 16.20 3.672 1.093

0.942

-

0.276 0.451 1.166

Results: Dependent Variable = + β Log(X) β Std t R² R Error 0.196 0.374 0.524 0.027 0.164 1.049 0.487 2.154 0.317 0.563 10.14 9

6.008

0.592

1.044

0.134

5.450

0.329

0.717

0.213

1.004

0.086

1.865 0.177

1.085 0.011

0.822

0.071

0.439 0.818 1.122

0.029

1.402

0.403

0.112 1.093

0.029

0.554 1.630

0.029 0.047

0.759

0.121

19.30 0 34.73 2 6.261

1.313

0.095

1.132

0.098

21

0.095 0.100

0.579

0.912

0.955

7.767 16.58 1

0.858

0.926

0.965

0.982

3.373 11.72 9

0.532

0.730

0.932

0.966

1.718 16.58 1 11.54 1 14.92 8.626 11.24 8 3.476

0.228 0.965

0.477 0.982

0.930

0.964

0.957

0.978

0.882 0.927

0.939 0.963

0.547

0.740

3.878 1.887

0.601

0.775

0.263

0.512

0.974 0.992

0.987 0.996

1.093

0.797 0.951

0.893 0.975

11.54

0.930

0.964

OBD YCUR BKCR GOVC R PVTC R TBOU T GDFD F BOPB

YCUR YCUR YCUR YCUR YCUR YCUR

3.061 4.040 5.595 5.070 7.479 3.523 2.817 7.421

6.914 0.965 1.939 0.954 0.901 0.230 9.273

3.247 0.584 5.798 2.614 7.840 3.909 12.25 0.800

1 1.042

0.720

1.408 1.272

0.100 0.202

1.537 1.184

0.099 0.094

0.751

0.024

1.314

0.965

22

1.448 14.01 7 6.303 15.48 7 12.62 3 31.39 9 1.362

0.173

0.416

0.952 0.799

0.975 0.894

0.960 0.941

0.980 0.970

0.990

0.995

0.156

0.395

Table-12A: Monthly Data on Major Variables during Jan 2007 to September 2009 Year/M CPI CPICPIEXP OBB M2 GD/$ YLDYLDFD NF 3M 6M 106.8 106.6 107.1 325.6 -22.4 7788. 28.0 10.5 12.7 2007Ja 6 5 19 0 8 Feb 107.0 106.7 107.3 338.7 1.8 8000. 27.9 12.0 13.4 1 7 06 7 8 Mar 109.3 111.0 107.2 295.3 63.4 7823. 27.7 12.6 13.4 6 7 53 6 0 Apr 111.6 114.6 107.8 280.3 69.7 8008. 27.5 13.0 13.4 4 9 82 5 7 May 112.0 115.1 108.1 265.5 47.2 7983. 27.3 12.8 13.3 5 9 81 0 0 Jun 111.9 115.1 108.0 242.0 34.1 7832. 26.5 12.6 13.1 8 5 74 3 0 Jul 111.9 115.0 108.1 258.4 78.1 7937. 25.3 12.5 13.2 5 1 8 2 5 Aug 112.0 115.1 108.2 312.6 -13.0 8011. 23.2 12.6 12.9 9 9 7 4 4 Sep 111.8 114.7 108.2 327.1 -80.7 7896. 19.1 11.6 12.2 6 7 74 1 3 Oct 111.9 114.7 108.5 341.9 12.9 7820. 19.4 10.6 11.7 5 62 9 4 Nov 112.1 115.1 108.4 289.5 -41.9 7755. 21.3 10.5 11.5 3 2 46 1 2 -121.5 8273.9 22.5 Dec 112.2 115.3 108.4 357.5 10.4 11.6 6 2 9 0 112.3 115.3 108.5 328.4 -8.8 8095. 22.3 10.6 11.4 2008Ja 1 8 27 4 0 Feb 112.3 115.4 108.5 309.0 20.4 8242. 21.9 10.9 11.9 4 5 08 9 2 Mar 112.7 116.1 108.5 293.0 54.8 8278. 19.5 11.0 12.1 3 1 65 0 2 Apr 113.2 116.6 109.0 326.2 8.1 8306. 20.1 10.9 11.9 1 1 21 1 7 May 113.8 117.3 109.4 309.6 -32.8 8580. 20.6 10.2 11.3 3 9 44 4 6 Jun 114.4 118.1 109.9 447.3 -127.7 8494. 20.7 10.0 11.2 8 7 33 3 5 116.21 121.02 110.28 Jul 393.1 -122.9 8737. 20.9 9.6 10.6 1 9 Aug 117.7 123.0 111.1 252.4 -32.0 8740. 21.4 8.8 10.2 0 7 Sep 118.9 124.1 112.6 260.5 113.8 8770. 23.1 8.9 11 6 1 14 0 9 Oct 119.2 124.5 112.7 524.5 -236.4 8746. 24.9 10.3 11.4 9 8 72 4 7 23

Nov Dec 2009Ja Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

119.5 4 119.9 3 120.1 3 120.2 5 120.3 120.3 6 120.5 1 120.6 1 120.8 4 121.1 5 121.7 5

125.0 3 125.1 2 125.4 2 125.5 7 125.6 2 125.6 125.7 5 125.8 7 125.9 6 126.3 9 127.3 9

112.7 76 113.5 35 113.6 12 113.6 95 113.7 45 113.9 04 114.0 54 114.1 29 114.5 31 114.6 94 114.8 01

384.4 9 503.6 1 326.5 9 319.1 3 504.3 3 596.2 7 401.7 1 526.4 9 372.6 1 296.0 5 255.8 9

24

-81.3 -50.2 56.8 50.0 -34.8 -198.8 -105.2 -208.7 -0.3 -10.9 102.0

9287. 4 9796. 4 9656. 4 9924. 9 9883. 9 9869. 7 10063 .5 10298 .2 10311 .9 10390 .1 10585 .6

26.3

10.1

13.4

26.5

9.9

12.5

26.1

10.5

12.1

26.1

11.1

12.8

26.4

11.4

12.7

26.8

12.0

12.96

26.7

12.5

13.8

26.9

13.0

13.8

26.8

11.5

12

26.6

10.2

11.2

26.9

10.4

11.7

Table-12B: Monthly Data on Major Variables during Jan 2007 to September 2009 Year/M

YLD12M 13.6

AV.YL D 12.27

DR-3M

Feb

13.8

13.07

9

Mar

13.7

13.23

9

Apr

13.8

13.40

9.45

May

13.8

13.30

9.45

Jun

13.9

13.20

9.45

13.9

13.20

9.45

Aug

13.6

13.03

9.45

Sep

12.9

12.23

9.35

Oct

12.5

11.60

9.35

Nov

12.5

11.50

9.35

Dec

13.6

11.87

8.95

2008Ja

13.6

11.87

8.95

Feb

13.7

12.17

8.95

Mar

13.6

12.23

9.3

Apr

13.3

12.03

9.3

13

11.50

9.3

Jun

13.3

11.50

9.3

Jul

12.6

10.93

9.3

Aug

12.1

10.37

9.3

Sep

13.1

11.00

7.75

Oct

13.6

11.77

8.25

2007Ja

Jul

May

9

DR-6M

DRBkRat DisRat TBOUT REV 12M e e 9.5 9.5 10 15 4876. 302.5 0 9.5 9.5 10 15 4783. 320.8 1 9.5 9.5 9 14 4730. 354.3 6 10.45 11 9 14 4759. 342.5 3 10.45 11 9 14 4817. 305.1 8 10.45 11 10 15 4770. 267.4 3 10 11 10 15 4806. 331.3 7 10 11 10 15 4960. 295.7 9 9.85 11 10 15 4917. 228.0 7 9.85 11 10 15 4940. 265.7 8 9.85 11 10 15 4760. 243.4 8 9.45 11 10 15 4691. 211.2 3 9.45 11 10 15 4749. 320.7 8 9.45 11 10 15 4748. 295.3 8 9.8 11 10 15 4731. 340.9 1 9.8 11 10 15 4825. 319.1 6 9.8 11 10 15 4806. 279.6 2 9.8 11 10 15 4828. 290.3 8 9.8 11 10 15 4894. 269.9 5 9.8 11 10 15 5898. 211.7 8 8.5 11 10 15 4860. 362.7 1 9 11.25 10 16 5229. 252.9 1 25

Nov

13.7

12.40

9.5

10

11.25

10

16

Dec

14

12.13

10.25

10.75

11.25

10

16

2009Ja

14.4

12.33

10.25

10.75

11

10

16

Feb

14.4

12.77

10.25

10.75

11

10

16

Mar

14.4

12.83

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

Apr

14.58

13.18

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

15.3

13.87

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

Jun

15.6

14.13

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

Jul

14.4

12.62

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

Aug

13.3

11.55

10.25

10.75

10.75

10

16

Sep

14.3

12.15

9.5

9.5

9.5

10

16

May

26

4827. 4 4745. 5 4783. 0 4788. 1 5543. 6 4837. 6 4848. 5 4939. 1 5078. 4 5139. 6 5125. 3

224.5 332.4 368.8 344.2 378.6 386.1 277.1 313.9 361.9 284.9 357.8

Table-13: Descriptive Statistics for Monthly Variables Variable CPI CPI-FD CPI-NF EXP OBB M2 GD/$ YLD-3M YLD-6M YLD-12M AV.YLD DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M BkRate DisRate TBOUT REV

Mean 115.379 119.247 110.614 350.491 -24.761 8793.70 8 24.343 11.075 12.253 13.693 12.340 9.461 10.009 10.795 9.909 15.273 4910.43 3 304.285

Std Dev. 4.475 5.964 2.721 91.036 88.139 939.137

Std Err 0.779 1.038 0.474 15.847 15.343 163.483

CV (%) 3.9 5.0 2.5 26.0 -356.0 10.7

2.971 1.170 0.960 0.753 0.867 0.602 0.590 0.506 0.292 0.626 248.657

0.517 0.204 0.167 0.131 0.151 0.105 0.103 0.088 0.051 0.109 43.286

12.2 10.6 7.8 5.5 7.0 6.4 5.9 4.7 2.9 4.1 5.1

33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

49.095

8.546

16.1

33

27

N 33 33 33 33 33 33

Table-14A: Pearson Correlation Matrix for the Monthly Variables CPI CPICPIEXP OBB M2 GD/$ YLD3 YLD6 FD NF M M CPI 1.000 0.997 0.978 0.443 - 0.919 0.235 0.253 0.264 0.129 CPI0.997 1.000 0.959 0.424 - 0.893 0.191 FD 0.251 0.274 0.154 CPI0.978 0.959 1.000 0.480 - 0.963 0.348 NF 0.252 0.231 0.057 EXP 0.443 0.424 0.480 1.000 - 0.447 0.163 0.028 0.154 0.802 OBB - 1.000 - 0.083 0.055 0.039 0.253 0.251 0.252 0.802 0.208 M2 0.919 0.893 0.963 0.447 - 1.000 0.413 - 0.034 0.208 0.120 GD/$ 0.235 0.191 0.348 0.163 0.083 0.413 1.000 0.446 0.645 YLD3 - 0.028 0.055 - 0.446 1.000 0.840 M 0.264 0.274 0.231 0.120 YLD6 - 0.154 0.039 0.034 0.645 0.840 1.000 M 0.129 0.154 0.057 YL12 0.414 0.380 0.492 0.425 - 0.588 0.678 0.573 0.698 M 0.135 AV.YL - 0.018 0.192 0.000 0.129 0.635 0.926 0.949 D 0.047 0.070 DR0.497 0.479 0.530 0.334 - 0.647 0.361 0.319 0.368 3M 0.128 DR0.426 0.415 0.441 0.300 - 0.533 0.415 0.430 0.450 6M 0.108 DR12 0.277 0.331 0.123 0.150 M 0.236 0.012 0.459 0.191 0.250 BkRat 0.313 0.301 0.335 0.247 - 0.293 e 0.309 0.339 0.474 0.372 DsRat 0.816 0.788 0.870 0.557 - 0.843 0.260 e 0.382 0.222 0.001 TBOU 0.396 0.400 0.374 0.101 - 0.317 T 0.145 0.007 0.297 0.362 REV 0.224 0.196 0.292 0.139 0.399 0.354 0.441 0.275 0.293

CPI CPIFD CPINF EXP OBB

Table-14B: Pearson Correlation Matrix for the Monthly Variables YL12 AV.YL DRDRDR12 BkRat DisRa TBOU REV M D 3M 6M M e te T 0.414 - 0.497 0.426 0.277 0.313 0.816 0.396 0.224 0.047 0.380 - 0.479 0.415 0.331 0.301 0.788 0.400 0.196 0.070 0.492 0.018 0.530 0.441 0.123 0.335 0.870 0.374 0.292 0.425 -

0.192 0.000

0.334 -

0.300 -

0.150 28

0.247 -

0.557 -

0.101 -

0.139 0.399

M2

0.135 0.588

0.129

0.128 0.647

0.108 0.533

GD/$ YLD3 M YLD6 M YL12 M AV.YL D DR3M DR6M DR12 M BkRat e DsRat e TBOU T REV

0.309 0.293

0.382 0.843

0.145 0.317

0.339 0.474 0.372 0.031 0.360 0.086

0.260

0.535

0.007 0.297 0.362 0.176 0.318 0.099

0.441

0.954

0.236 0.012 0.459 0.191 0.250 0.184 0.231 0.075

0.678

0.635

0.361

0.415

0.573

0.926

0.319

0.430

0.698

0.949

0.368

0.450

1.000

0.805

0.544

0.538

0.805

1.000

0.437

0.516

0.544

0.437

1.000

0.538

0.516

0.954

1.000

0.196

0.403

0.051

0.252

0.231 0.360 0.042

0.075

0.196

1.000

0.068 0.188

0.184 0.031 0.493

0.108

0.086

0.188

1.000

0.653

0.535

0.068 0.403

0.006 0.182

0.108

0.653

1.000

0.278

0.312 0.194 0.145

0.176 0.526

0.318 0.385

0.099

0.051

0.182

0.278

1.000

0.271

0.252

0.006 0.312

0.194

0.145

0.138

29

0.222 0.001 0.493 0.042

0.354

0.275 0.293 0.526 0.385 0.271

0.138 1.000

Table-15A: Annual Rates (in percentage) Year/ month 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

INF 5.1

INFFD 8.2

INFNF 1.3

GREXP 0.9

OBD/ Y 0.04

GRM2 3.9

DEP (%) -20.1

YLD3M 10.6

YLD6M 11.4

5.0 3.1 1.4 1.6 2.2 3.8 5.0 6.3 6.6 6.6 6.8 7.0

8.1 4.5 1.7 1.9 2.6 5.2 6.8 8.1 8.6 8.6 8.5 8.7

1.1 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.9 2.6 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.7 4.7

-8.8 -0.8 16.4 16.6 84.8 52.1 -19.3 -20.4 53.4 32.8 40.9 -0.6

-0.09 -0.24 -0.04 0.15 0.57 0.55 0.14 -0.51 1.05 0.36 0.22 -0.23

3.0 5.8 3.7 7.5 8.5 10.1 9.1 11.1 11.8 19.8 18.4 19.3

-21.6 -29.7 -26.8 -24.3 -22.1 -17.3 -8.0 21.2 28.0 23.0 17.8 16.7

10.9 11.0 10.9 10.2 10.0 9.6 8.8 8.9 10.3 10.1 9.9 10.5

11.9 12.1 11.9 11.3 11.2 10.6 10.2 11.0 11.4 13.4 12.5 12.1

7.0 6.7 6.3 5.9 5.4 4.0 3.0 2.3

8.8 8.2 7.7 7.1 6.5 4.1 2.8 2.6

4.8 4.8 4.5 4.2 3.8 3.9 3.3 1.9

3.2 72.1 82.8 29.7 17.7 -5.2 17.3 -1.8

-0.20 0.14 0.80 0.42 0.83 0.00 0.04 -0.41

20.4 19.4 18.8 17.3 21.2 18.0 18.9 20.7

19.3 35.5 33.2 29.5 30.1 27.9 24.6 16.6

11.1 11.4 12.0 12.5 13.0 11.5 10.2 10.4

12.8 12.7 13.0 13.8 13.8 12.0 11.2 11.7

30

Table-15B: Annual Rates (in percentage) Year/ month 2008 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2009 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep

YLD12M 13.6

AV.Y LD 11.9

DR3M 9.0

DR3M 9.0

DR6M 9.5

DR12M 11.0

DisR ate 15.0

GRTB -2.6

GRREV 6.0

13.7 13.6 13.3 13.0 13.3 12.6 12.1 13.1 13.6 13.7 14.0 14.4

12.2 12.2 12.0 11.5 11.5 10.9 10.4 11.0 11.8 12.4 12.1 12.3

9.0 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 7.8 8.3 9.5 10.3 10.3

9.0 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 9.3 7.8 8.3 9.5 10.3 10.3

9.5 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.8 8.5 9.0 10.0 10.8 10.8

11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.0 11.3 11.3 11.3 11.0

15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 15.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0

-0.7 0.0 1.4 -0.2 1.2 1.8 18.9 -1.2 5.8 1.4 1.2 0.7

-7.9 -3.8 -6.8 -8.4 8.6 -18.5 -28.4 59.1 -4.8 -7.8 57.4 15.0

14.4 14.4 14.6 15.3 15.6 14.4 13.3 14.3

12.8 12.8 13.2 13.9 14.1 12.6 11.6 12.1

10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.5

10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 10.3 9.5

10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 9.5

11.0 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 10.8 9.5

16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0

0.8 17.2 0.2 0.9 2.3 3.8 -12.9 5.5

16.5 11.1 21.0 -0.9 8.1 34.1 34.6 -1.4

31

Table-16: Descriptive Statistics for Annual Rates (in percentage) Variable INF INF-FD INF-NF GR-EXP OBD/Y GR-M2 DEP(%) YLD-3M YLD-6M YLD-12M AV.YLD DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M DisRate GR-TB GR-REV

Mean 4.812 6.162 3.070 22.095 0.171 13.653 7.316 10.655 11.998 13.823 12.159 9.569 10.069 10.893 15.571 2.167 8.699

Std Dev. 1.904 2.579 1.421 31.825 0.415 6.478 23.796 1.048 0.989 0.842 0.909 0.722 0.682 0.359 0.507 6.416 22.605

Std Err 0.416 0.563 0.310 6.945 0.091 1.414 5.193 0.229 0.216 0.184 0.198 0.158 0.149 0.078 0.111 1.400 4.933

32

CV (%) 39.6 41.8 46.3 144.0 242.0 47.4 325.3 9.8 8.2 6.1 7.5 7.5 6.8 3.3 3.3 296.1 259.9

N 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21

INF INF-FD INF-NF GREXP OBD/Y GR-M2 DEP(% ) YLD3M YLD6M YLD12M AV.YL D DR-3M DR-6M DR12M DisRat e GR-TB

Table-17A Correlation Matrix for INF INFINFGROBD/ FD NF EXP Y 1.000 0.963 0.806 0.087 0.163 0.963 1.000 0.618 0.013 0.130 0.806 0.618 1.000 0.221 0.186 0.087 0.013 0.221 1.000 0.715

Annual Rates GRDEP( M2 %) 0.469 0.638 0.253 0.441 0.817 0.900 0.193 0.192

YLD3M 0.121 0.058 0.235 0.207

YLD6M 0.431 0.342 0.514 0.224

0.163 0.469 0.638

0.130 0.253 0.441

0.186 0.817 0.900

0.715 0.193 0.192

1.000 0.122 0.217

0.122 1.000 0.879

0.217 0.879 1.000

0.308 0.344 0.347

0.233 0.563 0.525

0.121

0.058

0.235

0.207

0.308

0.344

0.347

1.000

0.804

0.431

0.342

0.514

0.224

0.233

0.563

0.525

0.804

1.000

0.383

0.273

0.530

0.146

0.171

0.634

0.618

0.873

0.873

0.321

0.230

0.440

0.206

0.256

0.532

0.514

0.945

0.941

0.138 0.225 0.330

-0.019 0.061 0.391

0.453 0.531 0.101

0.228 0.262 0.134

0.108 0.175 0.285

0.508

0.316

0.797

0.239

0.232

0.663 0.650 0.349 0.916

0.413 0.449 0.213 0.889

0.574 0.579 0.232 0.470

0.576 0.591 0.049 0.636

0.212

0.209

0.146

0.088

0.107

0.055

0.099

0.314

0.183

0.065 0.143

INF-NF GREXP OBD/Y

0.806 0.087

0.530 0.146

0.078 0.530 - 0.394 0.482 0.011 0.238 0.014 Correlation Matrix for Annual Rates AV. DRDRDRDis GRYLD 3M 6M 12M Rate TB 0.321 0.138 0.225 0.330 0.508 0.212 0.230 - 0.061 0.391 0.316 0.209 0.019 0.440 0.453 0.531 0.101 0.797 0.146 0.206 0.228 0.262 0.134 0.239 0.088

0.163

0.171

0.256

0.108

0.175

0.285

0.232

0.107

GR-M2

0.469

0.634

0.532

0.663

0.650

0.916

0.055

DEP(% ) YLD-

0.638

0.618

0.514

0.413

0.449

0.889

0.099

0.482

0.121

0.873

0.945

0.574

0.579

0.349 0.213 -

0.530 0.011 0.238 0.394

0.470

-

-

GRREV

INF INF-FD

Table-17B INF YLD12M 1.000 0.383 0.963 0.273

33

GRREV 0.314 0.183

3M YLD6M YLD12M AV.YL D DR-3M

0.431

0.873

0.941

0.576

0.591

0.383

1.000

0.960

0.594

0.588

0.321

0.960

1.000

0.612

0.618

0.138

0.594

0.612

1.000

0.983

DR-6M

0.225

0.588

0.618

0.983

1.000

DR12M DisRat e GR-TB

0.330

-0.318

0.508

0.715

0.205 0.632

0.211 0.638

0.058 0.639

0.212

-0.073

GRREV

0.314

0.268

0.076 0.129

0.006 0.154

0.024 0.209

0.232 0.049 0.318 0.205 0.211 0.058 1.000 0.265 0.089 0.036

0.014 0.143

0.265 1.000

0.078 0.065 0.073 0.076 0.006 0.024 0.089 0.013

0.013

1.000

0.342

0.380

0.380 1.000

0.636 0.715 0.632 0.638 0.639

0.268 0.129 0.154 0.209 0.036 0.342

Table-18A: Linear Regression Results on the basis of monthly variablesDependent Variable = CPI (CPI = α + β X) Source Coeffi Std t Sourc Coeffi Std t -cient Error e -cient Error Intercep 80.27 3.147 25.50 Interc 102.0 6.218 16.41 t 8 8 pt 91 9 M2 0.005 0.000 12.07 EXP 0.020 0.008 2.546 1 EXP 0.002 0.004 0.470 GD/$ 0.252 0.246 1.026 GD/$ -0.261 0.110 -2.370 2 R R Adj. R2 R Adj. 2 R R2 0.871 0.933 0.858 0.223 0.472 0.171 Dependent Variable = CPI = α + β X Source Coeffi Std t -cient Error Intercep 80.24 3.105 25.84 t 3 2 M2 0.005 0.000 13.71 6 GD/$ -0.263 0.109 -2.415 2 R R Adj. R2 0.870 0.933 0.861 Table-18B: Regression Results - Dependent Variable = Yield-3M = α + β X 34

Source

Coeffi -cient 17.91 7 1.249 -0.503

Std Error 4.606

3.890

0.344 0.497

3.634 -1.011

-0.095 R

0.361

0.601

0.068 Adj. R2 0.295

-1.406

R2

Intercep t DR-3M DisRate CPI

t

Sourc e Interc pt DR-3M DisRat e 0.043 R2

Coeffi -cient 15.51 1 1.190 -1.028

0.317

0.563

R

Std Error 4.345

t 3.570

0.347 0.334

3.432 -3.080

0.170 Adj. R2 0.272

Table-18C: Regression Results - Dependent Variable = Yield-6M = α + βX Source Coeffi Std t Sourc Coeffi Std t -cient Error e -cient Error Intercep 11.30 3.919 2.884 Interc 8.591 3.909 2.198 t 1 pt DR-6M 0.982 0.272 3.605 DR-6M 0.877 0.283 3.102 DisRate 0.325 0.402 0.808 DisRat -0.335 0.266 -1.258 e CPI -0.120 0.057 -2.109 R2 R Adj. R2 R Adj. 2 R R2 0.343 0.586 0.276 0.243 0.493 0.192

35

Table-18D: Regression Coefficients = α +βX Source Coeffi Std t -cient Error Interce 7.688 3.612 2.129 pt DR-12M -0.411 0.245 -1.682 DisRate CPI R2 0.311

0.442 0.032 R 0.558

0.329 0.048 Adj. R2 0.240

Dependent Variable = Yield-12M

R

0.243

0.493

R

0.872

0.934

Std Error 2.841

t 5.860

0.263

-1.041

R2

R

0.034

0.184

Adj. R2 0.003

Dependent Variable = Yield-

Adj. R2 0.219

Table-18F: Regression Coefficients α + β X= α + β X Source Coeffi Std t -cient Error Interce 1.561 0.223 6.996 pt M2 0.369 0.027 13.82 4 GD/$ -0.051 0.022 -2.315 R2

Coeffi -cient 16.64 9 -0.274

1.344 0.675

Table-18E: Regression Coefficients 12M = α + β X Source Coeffi Std t -cient Error Interce 4.636 2.872 1.614 pt DisRate 0.593 0.188 3.156 R2

Sourc e Interc pt DR12M

Sourc e Interc pt CPI

Coeffi -cient 5.658

Std Error 3.177

t 1.781

0.070

0.028

2.531

R2

R

0.171

0.414

Adj. R2 0.145

Dependent Variable = Log(CPI) = Sourc e Interc pt EXP GD/$

Adj. R2 0.863

36

Coeffi -cient 4.193

Std Error 0.209

0.064

0.027

20.04 6 2.377

0.057

0.050

1.135

R2

R

0.206

0.454

Adj. R2 0.153

t

Table-19: Descriptive Statistics for Natural Logarithms of Monthly Variables Variable CPI CPI-FD CPI-NF EXP Dummy M2 GD/$ YLD-3M YLD-6M YLD-12M AV.YLD DR-3M DR-6M DR-12M BkRate DisRate TBOUT REV

Mean 4.747 4.780 4.706 5.830 0.606 9.076 3.185 2.399 2.503 2.615 2.510 2.245 2.302 2.378 2.293 2.725 8.498 5.705

Std Dev. 0.039 0.050 0.025 0.238 0.496 0.104 0.126 0.106 0.079 0.055 0.071 0.065 0.060 0.049 0.031 0.041 0.048 0.169

Std Err 0.007 0.009 0.004 0.041 0.086 0.018 0.022 0.018 0.014 0.010 0.012 0.011 0.010 0.009 0.005 0.007 0.008 0.029

37

CV (%) 0.8 1.1 0.5 4.1 81.9 1.1 4.0 4.4 3.2 2.1 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.1 1.3 1.5 0.6 3.0

N 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33

Table-20A: Correlation Matrix (R) of natural logarithms of monthly variables CPI CPI-FD CPI-NF EXP Dumy M2 GD/$ YLD3 YLD6 YL12 M M M CPI 1.000 0.996 0.976 0.415 0.370 0.921 0.238 - 0.394 0.271 0.140 CPI0.996 1.000 0.954 0.392 0.360 0.893 0.189 - 0.357 FD 0.280 0.168 CPI0.976 0.954 1.000 0.459 0.383 0.965 0.354 - 0.477 NF 0.234 0.064 EXP 0.415 0.392 0.459 1.000 0.495 0.444 0.132 0.022 0.146 0.402 Dumy 0.370 0.360 0.383 0.495 1.000 0.385 0.032 0.287 0.268 0.003 M2 0.921 0.893 0.965 0.444 0.385 1.000 0.408 - 0.018 0.569 0.134 GD/$ 0.238 0.189 0.354 0.132 - 0.408 1.000 0.426 0.627 0.685 0.032 YLD3 - -0.280 -0.234 0.022 - 0.426 1.000 0.842 0.583 M 0.271 0.287 0.134 YLD6 - -0.168 -0.064 0.146 - 0.018 0.627 0.842 1.000 0.705 M 0.140 0.268 YL12 0.394 0.357 0.477 0.402 - 0.569 0.685 0.583 0.705 1.000 M 0.003 AV.YL - -0.085 0.008 0.176 - 0.108 0.623 0.927 0.952 0.808 D 0.061 0.230 DR3M 0.462 0.444 0.494 0.319 0.212 0.609 0.339 0.342 0.371 0.516 DR6M 0.404 0.394 0.418 0.284 0.095 0.507 0.396 0.441 0.450 0.516 DR1Y 0.295 0.354 0.133 0.151 0.044 0.012 0.440 0.190 0.248 0.183 BkRat 0.313 0.299 0.337 0.264 0.392 0.299 e 0.327 0.455 0.365 0.040 DisRT 0.804 0.772 0.862 0.552 0.460 0.837 0.254 - 0.473 0.214 0.007 TBOU 0.405 0.406 0.387 0.078 0.386 0.332 0.005 T 0.309 0.374 0.183 REV 0.189 0.158 0.263 0.098 - 0.326 0.433 0.300 0.316 0.538 0.352 Table-20B: Correlation Matrix (R) of natural logarithms of monthly variables AV.YL DR-3M DR-6M DR1Y BkRat DisRT TBOU REV AV.YL M2 D e T D CPI 0.462 0.404 0.295 0.313 0.804 0.405 0.189 - 0.921 0.061 0.061 CPI0.444 0.394 0.354 0.299 0.772 0.406 0.158 - 0.893 FD 0.085 0.085 38

CPINF EXP Dumy

0.008

0.494

0.418

0.133

0.337

0.862

0.387

0.263

0.008

0.965

0.176 0.230 0.108 0.623

0.319 0.212

0.284 0.095

0.151 0.044

0.264 0.392

0.552 0.460

0.078 0.386

0.507 0.396

0.332 0.005

0.927

0.342

0.441 0.450

0.316

0.952

0.134 0.018

0.808

0.516

0.516

0.538

0.808

0.569

1.000

0.436

0.510

0.406

1.000

0.108

0.436 0.510

1.000 0.955

0.955 1.000

0.309 0.374 0.183 0.330 0.096 0.051

0.927

0.371

0.214 0.007 0.473

0.300

0.952

0.244 0.235

0.436 0.510

0.609 0.507

DR1Y

0.229 0.355 0.035 0.330 0.406

0.076

0.201

1.000

0.299 0.327 0.455 0.365 0.040 0.355 0.076 0.070 0.189

0.837 0.254

YLD3 M YLD6 M YL12 M AV.YL D DR3M DR6M

0.012 0.440 0.190 0.248 0.183 0.229 0.076 0.201

0.176 0.230 0.108 0.623

0.444 0.385

0.609 0.339

0.098 0.352 0.326 0.433

-0.070

0.189

1.000

0.671

0.501 0.096

0.379 0.051

0.671 0.188

1.000 0.292

0.292 1.000

0.244

0.235

0.114 0.007 0.310

0.199

0.117

0.163

0.310 0.199 0.117 0.163 1.000

0.229 0.355 0.035 0.330 0.406

0.012

0.076

0.007 0.188

M2 GD/$

BkRat e DisRT TBOU T REV

Table-21: Log-Linear Regression Results: Log(CPI) = α + β Log(X) X

α

Std Error

t

β

0.035 0.501 0.379 0.114

Dependent Variable =

Std Error

R²

R

Adj. R²

0.849

0.921

0.844

0.647

0.804

0.636

t

M2

1.627

0.236

6.886

0.344

0.026

DISR T GEXP

2.682

0.274

9.790

0.758

0.101

13.20 7 7.540

4.352

0.156

0.068

0.027

2.537

0.172

0.415

0.145

TBO UT GD/$

1.947

1.134

27.89 9 1.717

1.947

1.134

2.469

0.164

0.405

0.137

4.515

0.171

0.073

0.054

1.362

0.056

0.238

0.026

DR3 M

4.127

0.214

26.39 8 19.27 6

0.276

0.095

2.897

0.213

0.462

0.188

39

1.000 0.408

0.299 0.837 0.332 0.326

Table-22: Log-Linear Regression Results: α + β Log(X) Y

X

α

YLD3 M YLD6 M YL12 M YLD3 M YLD6 M YL12 M M2 M2

CPI

DR3M DR6M DR12 M DR3M DR6M DR12 M

t

β

5.907

Std Error 2.240

2.638

CPI

3.859

1.719

2.245

CPI

1.105

DISRT

0.023 3.898

1.229

0.021 3.171

0.739 0.286 0.556

DISRT

2.540

0.939

2.705

DISRT

0.902

0.573

DISRT TBOU T CPI

3.320 2.932 1.417 0.636 0.606

CPI CPI

Dependent Variable = Log(Y) = Std Error 0.472 0.362 0.233 0.451

1.574

0.550 0.014 0.629

0.677 3.137

4.902 0.935

2.112 0.723

0.248 0.369

1.264

1.121 0.532 0.587

0.771

0.266

0.345 0.210

t

R²

R

1.567 0.789 2.388

0.073

0.271

0.020

0.140

0.155

0.394

1.219 0.039 2.992

0.046

0.214

0.000

0.007

0.224

0.473

8.501

0.700 0.110

0.837 0.332

0.213

0.462

0.163

0.404

0.087

0.295

0.251

0.501

0.144

0.379

0.013

0.114

1.959 1.196 1.032

2.897 0.619

0.252

0.373

0.217

2.457 1.718

DISRT

0.095

0.667

0.143

0.789

0.245

DISRT

0.144

0.379

1.240

0.144

0.379

3.223 DISRT

2.008

0.580

3.461

0.136

40

0.213

2.279 0.638