Probability Project

Name: ___________________________

Mr. Jacobs

Date: ___________________________

AP Statistics

Probability Flier Project A Quick Review on Probability: Probability - is a way of expressing knowledge or belief that something will or will not occur. Probabilities are represented by percentages (0 to 100%) or decimal values (0 to 1). Probability Model - is based on experiments, such as flipping a coin or tossing a pair of dice, for which there are multiple possible outcomes. It is impossible in advance to say what the outcome in these experiments will be. Sample Space – is the set (collection) of all possible outcomes of a probability experiment. An Event is a subset of the sample space. There are four types of samples: 1. Order matters without replacement

2. Order matters with replacement 3. Order doesn’t matter without replacement 4. Order doesn’t matter with replacement Equation for Probability: Pr[X] = number of outcomes you are looking for Total number of outcomes Graphics or Charts Used in Probabilities: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6.

Tree Diagrams Bell Curves Venn Diagrams Venn Box Diagram Box Diagram Tables

Independence Events A and B are independent if any or all of the following are true: 1. Pr(A|B) = Pr(A) 2. Pr(B|A) = Pr(B) 3. Pr(A ∩ B) = Pr(A)* Pr(B)

The Project For this project you will take your knowledge of what you have learned about Probabilities and create a flier to be presented to the class. This flier will be a problem that you will create on your own. You will find statistics of something of your choose and create your own type of problem with them. You must also use a graphic or chart in your flier. The graphic you use may be used to show how you actually solved the problem or just used to reinforce your information. You may do the project on anything you choose that is school appropriate and it must be cleared by me no later than November 23rd. The project is due the day you comeback from Thanksgiving break, which is Tuesday December 1st. The flier itself will be worth 50 points and the in class presentation will be worth another 25, so this project as a whole will be worth 75 points.