Presentation: Climate Change Impact On Agriculture And Costs Of Adaptation

Climate Change and Agriculture Impacts and costs of adaptation Gerald C. Nelson Senior Research Fellow Environment and Production Technology Division

5 October 2009

Acknowledgements  The IFPRI authors • Gerald C. Nelson, Mark W. Rosegrant, Jawoo Koo, Richard Robertson, Timothy Sulser, Tingju Zhu, Claudia Ringler, Siwa Msangi, Amanda Palazzo, Miroslav Batka, Marilia Magalhaes, Rowena Valmonte-Santos, Mandy Ewing, and David Lee

 Thanks also to • Ken Strzepek and Adam Schlosser of MIT for downscaled climate scenarios • Urvashi Narain, Sergio Margulis, Bob Schneider, and other members of the EACC global study report of the World Bank • ADB staff and reviewers for valuable comments and insights on the ADB report

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Preview of Results  Unchecked climate change will result in a 20 percent increase in malnourished children by 2050  Agricultural productivity expenditures of over $7 Billion per year are needed to compensate

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Outline  Climate Change Modeling Methodology  Impacts • Yields, prices, production, trade • Calorie consumption, child malnutrition

 Adaptation Costs • Need to reduce malnutrition

 Conclusions and Policy Recommendations Page 4

MODELING METHODOLOGY FOR CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS

Location-specific Biological and Socioeconomic Modeling is Critical  Climate change brings location-specific changes • in precipitation, temperature and variability to • local agronomic and market conditions

 Modeling challenge – To reconcile • limited resolution of macro-level economic models with • crop model detail

 Result • More realistic modeling of climate change effects (biological and economic) on global/regional agriculture

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Global Change Model Components  Two GCM climate scenarios to show variability • NCAR (wetter) and CSIRO (drier)

 DSSAT crop model • to estimate biological effects

 ISPAM data • to show where to estimate effects

 IMPACT2009 • To integrate biological effects from crop and hydrology results with detailed economic model

CLIMATE DATA: TODAY AND SCENARIOS FOR TOMORROW

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Temperatures have been rising…

Source: http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/

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… and could increase much more

Source: Figure 10.4 in Meehl, et al. (2007)

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Recent emissions Observed emissions are well above A2 0 simulated emissions 1850 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100

CO2 Emissions (GtC y-1)

10 9 8 7

Actual emissions: CDIAC Actual emissions: EIA 450ppm stabilisation 650ppm stabilisation A1FI (Avgs.) A1B A1T A2 B1 B2

2007

SRES (2000) A2 aver. growth rate for 2000-2010

2008

2006 2005

2.13 % Observed 2000-2007 3.5%

A2

6 5 1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Raupach et al 2007, PNAS; Global Carbon Project 2009, update

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AVERAGE ANNUAL PRECIPITATION CHANGE IN CLIMATE SCENARIOS DIFFER GREATLY Watch Sub-Saharan Africa, the Amazon, and South Asia

Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050 CSIRO, A2, AR4

Change in Precipitation (mm), 2000-2050 NCAR, A2, AR4

CLIMATE CHANGE YIELD EFFECTS

Climate change reduces average yields Crop/ management system

Sub Saharan Africa

East Asia and Pacific

South Asia

Irrigated rice NCAR

-14.1

-19.8

-15.5

CSIRO

-11.4

-13.0

-17.5

NCAR

-4.6

1.5

-7.8

CSIRO

-2.4

-3.9

-2.9

NCAR

-21.9

-14.8

-44.4

CSIRO

-19.3

-16.1

-43.7

Rainfed maize

Rainfed wheat

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AVERAGES CONCEAL GREAT VARIATION

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Irrigated rice

NCAR A2

Irrigated rice

CSIRO A2

Rainfed rice

NCAR A2

Rainfed rice

CSIRO A2

Rainfed maize

NCAR A2

Rainfed maize

CSIRO A2

FOOD SUPPLY, DEMAND AND TRADE RESULTS IMPACT2009 Biophysical effects from crop and hydrology models and economic effects from global agriculture model

Climate Change Makes Food Price Increases Greater 2000

2050 No climate change

450 Dollars Per Metric Ton

400

350

Greater price 2050 CSIRO NoCF 2050 NCAR NoCF increases with Prices increase climate change without climate change

300 250 200 150 100 50

Rice

Wheat

Maize

Soybeans

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Rice Production

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Wheat Production Climate change Large production eliminates those increases in some regions withoutgains climate change

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Maize Production

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Cereal Trade Flows

Note that CSIRO results in more exports from developed countries

Note change in direction for the different scenarios

… and therefore more imports into developing countries

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Climate Change Increases Childhood Malnutrition 80

2000 70

Millions of Children

60 50

2050 No CC

2050 with CC

Without climate change, child malnutrition falls except in With climate change, child Sub Saharan Africa malnutrition increases everywhere

40 30 20 10 South Asia East Asia and Europe and Latin America Middle East Sub Saharan Pacific Central Asia and and North Africa Caribbean Africa Page 30

CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION COSTS

Our Definition of Agricultural Adaptation  Agricultural investments that reduce child malnutrition with climate change to the level with no climate change  What types of investments are considered? • Agricultural research • Irrigation expansion and efficiency improvements • Rural roads

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Adaptation Costs are over $7 billion  Required additional annual expenditure • Wetter NCAR scenario = US$7.1 billion • Drier CSIRO scenario = US$7.3 billion

 Regional level • Sub-Saharan Africa - $3 billion (40% of the total), mainly for rural roads • South Asia - US$1.5 billion, research and irrigation efficiency • Latin America and Caribbean - US$1.2 billion per year, research • East Asia and the Pacific - $1 billion per year, research and irrigation efficiency Page 33

CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS

Conclusions  Climate change will have negative impacts • • • •

Lower yields Higher prices More malnourished children Changes in trade flows reduce the negative effects

 Agriculture is critical for • Poverty reduction • Economic development and • Food security

 Large additional expenditures should start now to reduce the adverse impacts of climate change Page 35

Policy and Program Recommendations  Design and implement good overall development policies and programs  Recognize that enhanced food security and climatechange adaptation go hand in hand  At least $7 billion per year in additional productivity investments are needed just for climate change adaptation in developing countries

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Think and Act Globally and Locally  Global public goods are needed • Improve global data collection, dissemination, and analysis • Make agricultural adaptation a key agenda point within the international climate negotiation process • Complete the Doha Round • Expand international agricultural research

 National public goods are needed • Reinvigorate national research and extension programs • Build supporting national infrastructure – roads, etc. • Provide supportive policy environment

 Local public goods are needed • Support community-based adaptation strategies

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