Power Scenario India

NPTI

ANIL KUMAR NPTI, FBD

POWER SECTOR-AN OVERVIEW Electricity - ‘Concurrent Subject’ : joint responsibility of State and Central Governments. Bulk of transmission and distribution functions with State Utilities. Private sector - small presence in Distribution and making entry into Transmission.

POWER SECTOR-AN OVERVIEW  Conventional Generation - blend of thermal, hydro and nuclear sources.  Coal based thermal power plants and in some regions hydro power plants - mainstay of electricity generation.  Oil, natural gas and nuclear power accounts for smaller proportion of power.  Emphasis also on non-conventional energy sources i.e. solar, wind, biogas and tidal.  Captive power plants being encouraged to supply surplus power to Grid.

'55

'61

'66

Source: CEA

'74

'85

'90

'95

'02

'03

'04

'06

'07

'12 (Projeced)

* includes Likely capacity Addition of 14000 MW from Renewables during 11th plan

1,32,329

1,24,287

1,18,426

1,07,877

1,05,046

81,171

63,636

42,585

2,24,907 * '80

28,448

Renewable

16,664

Hydro

9,027

Nuclear

4,653

'47

Thermal

2,695

1,362

GROWTH OF INSTALLED GENERATING CAPACITY IN INDIA (figs. in MW)

ALL INDIA PLF (%) OF THERMAL POWER STATIONS (COAL AND LIGNITE BASED) 78.6

78

C

H A R T : 1736 . 8 7 4 .784 . 3

73

72.7 69 67.3

68 63

63

61 60

58 53.2 53 52.4 48

Y ear s

Source: CEA

57.1 56.5 56.5 5 5 . 3 55 53.9

64.6 6 4 . 46 4 . 7

72.2 69.9

MAJOR LEGISLATIVE / POLICY INITIATIVES OF GOVERNMENT  1998- Electricity Regulatory Commission Act  1998 - Electricity Laws (Amendment) Act  2001- Electricity Conservation Act  2003- Electricity Act  February ,2005- National Electricity Policy  January 2006- National Tariff Policy  August 23, 2006 - Rural Electrification Policy  August 2006- Integrated Energy Policy.  January 2007- Report submitted by Working Group on Power for 11th Plan constituted by Planning Commission.  August,2007 - National Electricity Plan notified.

NATIONAL ELECTRICITY POLICY – THE WAY FORWARD • Access to electricity for all households in next 5 years. • Availability of power on demand to be fully met by 2012 • Energy shortage and peaking shortage to be overcome by providing adequate spinning reserves • Reliability and quality of power to be supplied in efficient manner . • Electricity Sector to achieve financial turnaround and commercial viability • Consumers’ interests to be accorded top priority.

INSTALLED CAPACITY IN THE COUNTRY (as on 31 August, 2008) st

R.E.S., 12195 8.4%

NUCLEAR 4120 2.8%

HYDRO, 36198, 24.8%

THERMAL 93115 64%

TOTAL IC-1,45,627 MW

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY MINISTRY OF POWER GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

EVOLUTION OF UNIT SIZE OF COAL BASED POWER PLANTS

 Largest unit size in 1950-30 MW  First re-heat unit of 82.5 MW in 1966 at Bandel TPS  First 200 MW unit at Obra TPS in 1977  First 500 MW unit at Trombay in 1984  Committee constituted by CEA recommended 800 to 1000 MW unit size in future  In 11th Plan 800/660 MW units planned

Details of IC of renewable energy sources (As on 31.03.2008)

Sources / Systems

Installed Capacity ( MW)

Wind Power

7666.84

Biomass Power & Biomass Gasifiers

1325.63

Small Hydro Power

2034.07

Solar power & others Total

87.87 11,125.41

Development of Transmission Voltages Levels • 132 kV Highest level at the time of Independence • Introduction of 220 kV in 1960 • 400 kV in 1977 • HVDC back-to-back link in 1989, • 500kV, HVDC bi-pole line in 1990 • 765 kV transmission line from 2000 onwards.

PER CAPITA CONSUMPTION OF ELECTRICITY IN INDIA Growth Pattern 1000

kWh/year

559

613

632

672

704

348 176

1980- 1990- 2000- 2004- 2005- 2006- 2007- 201181 91 01 05 06 07 08 12

(Projected) As per UN Methodology (Gross Electrical Energy Availability / Source: CEA Population)

ACTUAL POWER SUPPLY POSITION OF THE COUNTRY (April,08-August,08) Peak (MW)

Energy (MU)

1,06,922

3,18,813

Availability

91,363

2,84,861

(-)Shortage/ (+)Surplus

(-) 15,559

(-)33,952

(-) 14.6

(-) 10.6

Requirement

(%)

10TH PLAN –TARGET AND ACTUAL CAPACITY ADDITION

* Thermal -12,114 MW, Hydro – 7,886 MW, Nuclear – 1180 MW

POWER GENERATION POWER GENERATION - STRATEGY

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY MINISTRY OF POWER

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

-

STRATEGY

• Large emphasis on hydro development. Constraints restricting progress are large gestation period, high capital cost, Issues such as R&R, law & order etc. New Hydro Policy to encourage private participation in hydro power generation. • Limited dependability on gas based capacity Availability of gas at reasonable rates being a constraint for gas based projects. During 11th Plan only about 6,843 MW gas based capacity envisaged. • Active steps to harness Nuclear energy on a larger scale being taken but contribution minor as yet. • Renewables.

POWER GENERATION POWER GENERATION - STRATEGY

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY MINISTRY OF POWER

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

- STRATEGY

• Renewable energy sources to be made economically viable- At present can play

dominant role in meeting remote located demands where not economic to extend the grid.

• Coal based power projects expected to be main stay of Indian Power Sector for next 50-70 years.

Continuous efforts directed at generating maximum energy from each tonne of coal with minimum effect on environment

Development of Hydro Power projects Plan Period

Hydro CapacityTotal Hydro Capacity at Addition (MW) the end of plan (MW)

11th Plan (2007-08 to 2011 - 12)

15627

50280

12th Plan (2012-13 to 2016-17)

30000

80280

13th Plan (2017 - 18 to 2021-22)

31000

111280

14th Plan (2022-23 to 2026 - 27)

36494

147774

DEMAND AND CAPACITY REQUIREMENT Year

Energy Peak Requirement Demand (BU) (MW)

Proposed Generation Capacity growth rate Addition during (CAGR) 5 year plan (MW)

201112

1038

1,52,000

77,070* ( 11th Plan)

201617

1470

2,18,209

94,000 7.4% (over (12th Plan) 2011-12)

* Feasible capacity as per latest assessment

9.5% (over 2006-07)

CAPACITY ADDITION TARGETTED FOR 11th PLAN (SECTORWISE) 1 5 ,0 4 3 M W (19% ) PV T SEC T OR ST A T E SEC T OR

2 6,7 8 3 M W (34% )

C ENT RA L SEC T OR

3 6 ,8 7 4 M W 47%

Total 78,700 MW

INTERNATIONAL CONCLAVE ON KEY INPUTS

 On 4th-5th July,2007 organized by CBIP/MoP/CEA. Purpose-To discuss issues to be addressed to ensure timely Implementation of projects during 11th Plan and beyond .

11th Plan tentative targets for grid interactive renewable power (Figures in MW)

Sources / Systems Wind Power

Target for 11th plan

10,500

Biomass Power Baggasse Cogeneration Biomass Gasifiers

2,100

Small Hydro (up to 25 MW)

1400

Total

14,000

Targets for 12th Plan likely to be at least 14,000 MW

Village Electrification Number of villages electrified increased from 3061 in 1950 to about 4,88,655 in 2008 (as on 31.07.08, 82.3% village electrification).

Renewable Energy Sources during 12th Plan • Capacity addition during 12th Plan expected to be more than 11th Plan due to incentives by MNRE for setting up of Solar and Wind power plants • Considering at least 14,000 MW during 12th Plan also, by 12th Plan end about 38,000 MW Renewable power expected. • Assuming PLF of 20 %, generation about 67 BU. • This energy considered while planning for 12th Plan

12th Plan Tentative Capacity Addition • Demand as per 17th EPS – Energy Requirement – 13,92,066 BU; Peak Demand- 2,18,209 MW • Spinning Reserve – 5% as per National Electricity Policy. Capacity corresponding to 3000 MW and 1600 MW also worked out • 25,000 MW Hydro and 8,500 MW Nuclear as must run stations. • As result of studies 12th Plan total Generating capacity 94,431 which includes 61,171 MW thermal.(28,190 MW PH, 15,495 MW LC, 14,800 MW Coastal) • Capacity with 1600 MW S.R.- 81,570 MW; 3000MW S.R. – 82,970 MW • Fuel consumption(2016-17) – Coal 815 MT, Lignite 60 MT • All India Studies for 5% S.R: LOLP – 0.18%; ENS – 0.00% (Norms – LOLP-1% & ENS- 0.15%)

13th Plan Tentative Capacity Expansion ASSUMPTIONS • 17th EPS Demand – Energy Requirement- 19,14,508 MU; Peak Demand- 2,98,253 MW • Spinning Reserve - 5% . • Beginning of 13th Plan 37,014 MW Coal & Lignite based capacity more than 27 yrs old. (5,634 MW capacity upto 100 MW unit size and 31,380 MW capacity greater than 100 MW unit size)

• Studies indicate 13th Plan capacity addition-1,05,060 MW (Hydro-34,500 MW, Nuclear -8,000 MW, Thermal -62,560 MW including 6000 MW gas) • LOLP-0.18 % and ENS-0.007 %, Reliability Criteria met.

Strategies/ Initiatives for GHG Mitigation • Clean Coal technologies  Supercritical Technology – 2% efficiency gain possible  Ultra Supercritical Technology –additional efficiency 0.75% over 800 MW supercritical  Integrated Gasification Technology – higher efficiency of 4045%

• Reduction in T & D losses – All India T&D losses- 28.65% in 2006-07. Aim to bring down to 15%

• R & M of old thermal power stations – Benefits of CDM to be extended to overcome fund constraints • Energy Efficiency improvement

CENTRAL ELECTRICITY AUTHORITY

TECHNOLOGIES USED AT COMBUSTION STAGE Clean coal technologies( CCT) – have pollution abatement in energy conversion process so external environmental control equipments not required MINISTRY OF POWER

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

• • • • • • • •

Adoption of Supercritical technology Ultra supercritical (USC) and advanced USC technology Circulating Fluidized Bed Combustion ( CFBC) Pressurized Fluidized Bed Combustion (PFBC) Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) In-Situ gasification Low NOx burners Oxy-fuel combustion

Sub-critical units in 10th , 11th , 12th, 13th & 14th Plans 600 MW (nos)

500 MW 250/300/3 200/210 125/135 Total 30 MW MW MW (nos) Subcritical (nos) (nos) (nos) MW

10TH Plan

0

11

7

9

4

9620

11TH Plan

8

42

62

6

14

45470

12th Plan

7

20

12

0

2

18270

13TH Plan

0

8

0

0

0

4000

14th Plan

0

0

0

0

0

0

Super-critical units in 10th , 11th , 12th , 13th & 14th Plans Total Sub critical MW

660 MW (nos)

800 MW (nos)

Total Total MW Super critical MW

10TH Plan

9620

0

0

0

9620

11TH Plan

45470

7

1

5420

50890

12th Plan

18270

25

33

42,900

61,170

13TH Plan

4000

36

36

52,560

56,560

14th Plan

0

45

52

71,300

71,300

ALL INDIA EFFICIENCY AND EMISSION RATES • All India thermal efficiency – 32.44% (2006-07) (coal & lignite based plants)

• Present weighted average CO2 emission rate (t CO2 /MWh) (including imports) : 0.80 (2006-07)

Likely Coal Based Capacity Addition & Expected Emission End of Coal Cumula The Based tive Plan Capaci Coal ty Base Additi d on Capacit (MW) y (MW)

Total Coal Gener Consum ation ption from (MT) Coal Based Plants (BU)

Co2 Emissi on (MT)

Co2 Expecte Total Ash Emissi d Gener on per Ther ation unit of mal (MT) Therm Effici al ency Genera tion

11th 50240 116610 Plan

708

492

722

1.02

35.3

182

12th 58485 175095 Plan

1164

785

1152

0.99

36.4

278

13th 56500 231595 Plan

1542

1028

1507

0.97

36.85

363

14th 72000 303595 Plan

2033

1337

1961

0.96

37.3

471