Population Growth In The Redlands - 21 Jun 09 (crg)
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1 of 6 POPULATION GROWTH IN THE REDLANDS by L. G. Hackett Introduction Redland City Council presently accepts uncontrolled population growth, ignoring any consideration of a population cap for Redland City. It accepts the State Government policy that Redland City will need to accommodate at least another 50,000 people by 2030. The Australian Bureau of Statistics has produced 72 different series of population projections, simply numbered 1 to 72, using different settings from 2006 to 2056. Discussion of population projections typically use a different set of three generic series to represent high, medium and low growth scenarios; respectively, Series A, Series B and Series C. These latter series give a broad-brush picture of the detailed 72 series. This paper highlights selected population projections using Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) and Office of Economic and Statistical Research - Qld Treasury (OESR) data and is based on the series mentioned. Medium Growth Scenario The population of Queensland is growing presently at a rate reflected approximately by the ABS and OESR Series B data. Subject to the Series B assumptions, the population of Queensland will continue to grow as shown by the Graph 1. Graph 1 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2056 - SERIES B Calculated Total Queensland Population Due to Natural Increase, Immigration and Migration; Based on OESR Data (Adjusted) SEQ Population @ 66.7% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
(No)
Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
Calculated QLD Population Based on ABS Projections for Australia 10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
No.
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Year
Note that this Series B projection is based on:
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
2 of 6 1. Medium assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 2007−08, declining linearly to 1.8 within five years, and then remaining constant. 2. Medium assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 31,500 persons in 2007−08 increasing to 32,750 persons in five years (by 2012−13) and then decreasing to 26,000 persons by 2022−23. Migration rates are then applied with nets declining to 17,600 persons by 2055−56; constant thereafter. 3. Medium assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 185,000 persons until 2011−12, then declining linearly to 130,000 persons by 2021−22, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period. Queensland’s share to start at 18.9% and increase to 22% by 2056; constant thereafter. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The third assumption has been exceeded already because the Net Overseas Migration for Australia during 2008 was 235,900. Note, also, that the author has calculated the populations of South East Queensland and Redland City by proportioning the Queensland totals. Graph 2 is an expansion to better show the population growth for the Redlands. Graph 2 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2056 - SERIES B Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
300,000
250,000
No.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
Do we really believe that the Redlands can accommodate this population without prejudice? To give a better perspective, Graph 3 shows the projection out to the year 2100.
3 of 6 Graph 3 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES B Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
400,000
350,000
300,000
No.
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
Low Growth Scenario – Series C Population growth can be reduced by changing the relevant parameters. The ABS and OESR use Series C to represent a low growth scenario. The Series C projection is based on: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8 in 2007−08, declining linearly to 1.7 within five years, and then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 26,000 persons in 2007−08 decreasing to 23,000 persons in five years (by 2012−13) and then decreasing to 20,700 persons by 2022−23. Migration rates are then applied with nets declining to 13,900 persons by 2055−56; constant thereafter. 3. Low assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 170,000 persons until 2011−12, then declining linearly to 100,000 persons by 2021−22, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period. Queensland’s share to start at 18.9% and increase to 20% by 2056; constant thereafter. 4. Low Life Expectancy: 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056. Graph 4 shows this Series C projection out to the year 2100, proportioned for the Redlands.
4 of 6 Graph 4 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES C Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
300,000
250,000
No.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
That is, the population of the Redlands will more than double by 2100 under a Series C, low growth scenario. This Series does self-limit to about 283,004 people within the Redlands, in the year 2115, an increase of 115%. An Acceptable Population Limit? – Series 72 In 2009, Redland City is suffering from, or starting to experience, many of the population-induced pressures that afflict most places, including: a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j.
k.
1
increasing road congestion; increasing atmospheric and noise pollution; increasing pressure on medical and education resources; continuing shortages of water; reducing fish stocks; increasing habitat destruction, particularly by land clearing; rapid depletion of dwindling mineral and other resources; detrimental visual and lifestyle impacts from continuous building works throughout the region; increasing transport problems with parking and public transport availability; increasing removal of green-space within the urban footprint, including the overall reduction of vegetation throughout the region because of Greenfield development and the rezoning within the urban footprint to allow medium density development, with the consequential impact on visual amenity and on native animal and bird life; and deteriorating social conditions, such as visual and acoustic privacy, adequacy of private open space, solar access, garage dominance, visitor parking and, importantly, the increase in opportunities for antisocial behaviours and crimes due to increased population density, increased anonymity, higher concentration of different social mixes and potential frictions1.
http://yourdevelopment.org/factsheet/view/id/58
5 of 6 The expected population increase over the period will exacerbate these pressures seriously. To envisage that Redland City can increase its present population by about 40% by 2030 without serious consequences is naive, at best. If we believe the populations detailed in the preceding paragraphs are unsustainable, including for the reasons argued above and in the paper entitled “THE REDLANDS 2030 COMMUNITY PLAN - Important Points for Discussion” of 2 June 2009, published on this website, then other actions are needed. The 72 series of population projections produced by the ABS are not forecasts. They are models to show the consequences of changing the parameters that influence population growth. Series 72 is the lowest growth projection modelled in the ABS series. However, other projections can be modelled by using different parameter settings, as has been done by the author below. Graph 5 shows the ABS Population Projection, Series 72, proportioned for the Redlands. Graph 5 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES 72 Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
200,000
No.
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
This Series 72 projection shows the population growth reaching a maximum of about 173,164 in the year 2055. This is about 30% higher than now and might be the best limit for which we can hope. Note that after the peak the population declines. The ABS requirements for enacting this Series 72 scenario are: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.66 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 2007−08, 21,000 persons in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Low Life Expectancy; 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056.
6 of 6 The author sees little reason to expect that life expectancy growth will decline from that at present. On that basis, and to achieve a similar population limit as the Series 72 projection, the necessary adjustments to the assumptions are: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.50 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. ZERO Net Interstate Migration for Queensland after 2007. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 163,894 people in the year 2080. Another option is: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.00 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 2007−08, 21,000 persons in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 170,841 people in the year 2080. Controlling Population Growth ABS data shows that the population of SEQ is increasing at about 1.8 per cent per year; about 41% due to net overseas migration, 39% due to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths), and 20% attributable to net interstate migration2. The population of Redland City will be growing similarly. Based on ABS data, the population of Redland City is approximately 140,000 in 2009 and is to reach about 204,000 by 2030. This accords, generally, with the estimates contained in the Redlands 2030 briefing papers. Included in these statistics is that the number of births per year is about double the number of deaths. This means that the population of Redland City will increase by about 40% by the year 2030. Population growth is rampant! The scenarios shown above are real, and striking. The examples given for limiting population are representative and have enormous implications. The lead must come from the Federal Government with compliance by all State Governments. Realistically, the Redlands can act alone only with Government sanction. However, it should act decisively to do all within its power to limit the population within Redlands City, including the lobbying of Governments and the education of the people. A population debate must be opened and forcefully propagated. Not to limit population growth is to accept that our lifestyles and environment will be destroyed irrevocably and that our water, mineral and other resources will be depleted sooner rather than later. This is absurd from any planning perspective that considers infrastructure, services, the environment, and quality of life. This position can lead only to increasing and everlasting angst. We can have vision and act as intelligent beings, or we can be victims of our blinkered folly. Lindsay Hackett 2
21 June 2009
See, http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/latestProducts/3101.0Media%20Release1Sep%202008
(No)
(No)
Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
Calculated QLD Population Based on ABS Projections for Australia 10,000,000
9,000,000
8,000,000
7,000,000
No.
6,000,000
5,000,000
4,000,000
3,000,000
2,000,000
1,000,000
Year
Note that this Series B projection is based on:
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
2 of 6 1. Medium assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.9 in 2007−08, declining linearly to 1.8 within five years, and then remaining constant. 2. Medium assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 31,500 persons in 2007−08 increasing to 32,750 persons in five years (by 2012−13) and then decreasing to 26,000 persons by 2022−23. Migration rates are then applied with nets declining to 17,600 persons by 2055−56; constant thereafter. 3. Medium assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 185,000 persons until 2011−12, then declining linearly to 130,000 persons by 2021−22, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period. Queensland’s share to start at 18.9% and increase to 22% by 2056; constant thereafter. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The third assumption has been exceeded already because the Net Overseas Migration for Australia during 2008 was 235,900. Note, also, that the author has calculated the populations of South East Queensland and Redland City by proportioning the Queensland totals. Graph 2 is an expansion to better show the population growth for the Redlands. Graph 2 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2056 - SERIES B Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
300,000
250,000
No.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
Do we really believe that the Redlands can accommodate this population without prejudice? To give a better perspective, Graph 3 shows the projection out to the year 2100.
3 of 6 Graph 3 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES B Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
400,000
350,000
300,000
No.
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
Low Growth Scenario – Series C Population growth can be reduced by changing the relevant parameters. The ABS and OESR use Series C to represent a low growth scenario. The Series C projection is based on: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) of 1.8 in 2007−08, declining linearly to 1.7 within five years, and then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to start at 26,000 persons in 2007−08 decreasing to 23,000 persons in five years (by 2012−13) and then decreasing to 20,700 persons by 2022−23. Migration rates are then applied with nets declining to 13,900 persons by 2055−56; constant thereafter. 3. Low assumption: net overseas migration for Australia of 170,000 persons until 2011−12, then declining linearly to 100,000 persons by 2021−22, then remaining constant for the remainder of the projection period. Queensland’s share to start at 18.9% and increase to 20% by 2056; constant thereafter. 4. Low Life Expectancy: 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056. Graph 4 shows this Series C projection out to the year 2100, proportioned for the Redlands.
4 of 6 Graph 4 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES C Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
300,000
250,000
No.
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
That is, the population of the Redlands will more than double by 2100 under a Series C, low growth scenario. This Series does self-limit to about 283,004 people within the Redlands, in the year 2115, an increase of 115%. An Acceptable Population Limit? – Series 72 In 2009, Redland City is suffering from, or starting to experience, many of the population-induced pressures that afflict most places, including: a. b. c. d. e. f. g. h. i. j.
k.
1
increasing road congestion; increasing atmospheric and noise pollution; increasing pressure on medical and education resources; continuing shortages of water; reducing fish stocks; increasing habitat destruction, particularly by land clearing; rapid depletion of dwindling mineral and other resources; detrimental visual and lifestyle impacts from continuous building works throughout the region; increasing transport problems with parking and public transport availability; increasing removal of green-space within the urban footprint, including the overall reduction of vegetation throughout the region because of Greenfield development and the rezoning within the urban footprint to allow medium density development, with the consequential impact on visual amenity and on native animal and bird life; and deteriorating social conditions, such as visual and acoustic privacy, adequacy of private open space, solar access, garage dominance, visitor parking and, importantly, the increase in opportunities for antisocial behaviours and crimes due to increased population density, increased anonymity, higher concentration of different social mixes and potential frictions1.
http://yourdevelopment.org/factsheet/view/id/58
5 of 6 The expected population increase over the period will exacerbate these pressures seriously. To envisage that Redland City can increase its present population by about 40% by 2030 without serious consequences is naive, at best. If we believe the populations detailed in the preceding paragraphs are unsustainable, including for the reasons argued above and in the paper entitled “THE REDLANDS 2030 COMMUNITY PLAN - Important Points for Discussion” of 2 June 2009, published on this website, then other actions are needed. The 72 series of population projections produced by the ABS are not forecasts. They are models to show the consequences of changing the parameters that influence population growth. Series 72 is the lowest growth projection modelled in the ABS series. However, other projections can be modelled by using different parameter settings, as has been done by the author below. Graph 5 shows the ABS Population Projection, Series 72, proportioned for the Redlands. Graph 5 POPULATION GROWTH 2006-2101 - SERIES 72 Redlands Population @ 3.21% of Adjusted Qld; Based on OESR Data
(No)
200,000
No.
150,000
100,000
50,000
2100
2098
2096
2094
2092
2090
2088
2086
2084
2082
2080
2078
2076
2074
2072
2070
2068
2066
2064
2062
2060
2058
2056
2054
2052
2050
2048
2046
2044
2042
2040
2038
2036
2034
2032
2030
2028
2026
2024
2022
2020
2018
2016
2014
2012
2010
2008
2006
0
Year
This Series 72 projection shows the population growth reaching a maximum of about 173,164 in the year 2055. This is about 30% higher than now and might be the best limit for which we can hope. Note that after the peak the population declines. The ABS requirements for enacting this Series 72 scenario are: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.66 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 2007−08, 21,000 persons in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Low Life Expectancy; 85.0 years for males and 88.0 years for females by 2056.
6 of 6 The author sees little reason to expect that life expectancy growth will decline from that at present. On that basis, and to achieve a similar population limit as the Series 72 projection, the necessary adjustments to the assumptions are: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.50 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. ZERO Net Interstate Migration for Queensland after 2007. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 163,894 people in the year 2080. Another option is: 1. Low assumption: a total fertility rate (TFR) declining linearly to 1.00 by 2021, then remaining constant. 2. Low assumption: net interstate migration for Queensland to be 22,500 persons in 2007−08, 21,000 persons in 2009, then 18,000 from 2010 to 2056; constant thereafter. 3. ZERO Net Overseas Migration for Australia after 2007. 4. Medium Life Expectancy: 89.3 years for males and 91.2 years for females by 2056. The author calculates that these assumptions give a maximum of 170,841 people in the year 2080. Controlling Population Growth ABS data shows that the population of SEQ is increasing at about 1.8 per cent per year; about 41% due to net overseas migration, 39% due to natural increase (the excess of births over deaths), and 20% attributable to net interstate migration2. The population of Redland City will be growing similarly. Based on ABS data, the population of Redland City is approximately 140,000 in 2009 and is to reach about 204,000 by 2030. This accords, generally, with the estimates contained in the Redlands 2030 briefing papers. Included in these statistics is that the number of births per year is about double the number of deaths. This means that the population of Redland City will increase by about 40% by the year 2030. Population growth is rampant! The scenarios shown above are real, and striking. The examples given for limiting population are representative and have enormous implications. The lead must come from the Federal Government with compliance by all State Governments. Realistically, the Redlands can act alone only with Government sanction. However, it should act decisively to do all within its power to limit the population within Redlands City, including the lobbying of Governments and the education of the people. A population debate must be opened and forcefully propagated. Not to limit population growth is to accept that our lifestyles and environment will be destroyed irrevocably and that our water, mineral and other resources will be depleted sooner rather than later. This is absurd from any planning perspective that considers infrastructure, services, the environment, and quality of life. This position can lead only to increasing and everlasting angst. We can have vision and act as intelligent beings, or we can be victims of our blinkered folly. Lindsay Hackett 2
21 June 2009
See, http://www.abs.gov.au/ausstats/[email protected]/latestProducts/3101.0Media%20Release1Sep%202008
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