PED (Population, Environment and Development): The SAARC Countries Scenario
Uttam Kumar Assistant Professor, Department of Geography J.S.H (P G) College, J P Nagar INDIA Email:
[email protected]
PED (Population, Environment and Development): The SAARC Countries Scenario ABSTRACT South Asia as a region has its own geographical, political and economic importance in the world. Therefore, it is very important to analyze development scenario of South Asian nations, especially when it has been quoted as the most dynamic and potential region of 21st century. The Challenge for South Asian region today is to travel the vast distance between its performance and its promise. On the one hand, it has emerged as the poorest, the most illiterate, the most malnourished and least gender ‐ sensitive region in the world. On the other hand it has all potential to become the most dynamic region in the 21st century if there is a massive investment in human development (Report of Human Development in South Asia, 1998). Moreover the environment of these nations is also deteriorating. Due to great focus on economic development, environment has always remained a secondary thing for these nations. The paper analyses the pattern and level of development in South Asia (India, Bangladesh. Bhutan, Nepal, Pakistan and Sri Lanka). It also focuses upon the relationship between population, development and environment in South Asia. The data is collected from various published sources and then analyzed using correlation technique. Taking into consideration various aspects of development an index has been formulated for the level of development in these nations. It is found that Sri Lanka is the most developed country followed by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal respectively. Sri Lanka has lowest birth rate, death rate and fertility rate. A high correlation exists between population growth and agricultural Sectoral share to GDP. Per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption has a negative correlation with population growth. In South Asia, there is a positive relationship between industrial Sectoral share to GDP and per capita GDP and energy consumption per head. Relationship is also established between land man ratio and land degradation. It is found that a very high positive correlation i.e. 0.785 exists between both. There is a direct positive correlation between energy consumption and deforestation, and carbon dioxide emission. A high correlation can also be observed between carbon dioxide emission and number of persons below 1 US$ a day (an important indicator of development) per capita GDP also has positive tearing upon carbon dioxide emission, deforestation and land degradation. A positive relationship is observed between industrial Sectoral share to total GDP and carbon dioxide emissions. Population growth has a direct bearing upon number of persons below poverty line. This means it is true to an extent that high population growth in South Asia is responsible for poverty, which has high correlation with various environmental issues.
South Asian nations must proceed to work out strategies for sustainable development rather than thinking about just economic gains. Main focus should be on the proper distribution of these economic gains. The segregation of funds in various sectors has to be in judicious way. Environmental awareness and Green technology need to be adopted by all these nations.
INTRODUCTION "Are we developing?" The true essence of development is a fantasy for mankind. Every time we feel we have developed, the scope of further development widens up. In the race of development all the Third World countries are trying to accelerate their shares, yet internally howling for mere subsistence. The categorization of countries as developing and developed, north or south is relative, based on their economic and social standards. The terms like 'sustainability', 'Eco‐development. 'Eco‐friendly' etc are new words in our dictionary. The term 'Growth' got substituted with 'development' and 'development' with 'sustainable development'; terms kept on changing but so‐ called Third World kept struggling to feed their huge population, unintentionally ignoring environmental planning. But the issue of development and simultaneous environmental degradation is not limited to the Third World; rather it's a global issue. The major culprits have passed through the phase of development, where the Third World is still lying. Development has always remained an issue and target for all the developing nations. In these countries, vast human population is accompanied by poor social conditions. Recently, after United Nation Environmental Programme and several alarming environmental conferences at the international level, the developing nations have started thinking about sustainable development From economic growth to development and then to sustainable development, different philosophies as per the needs and repercussions of human activities, these nations
are going through different phases of challenge. This paper focuses upon the relationship of development and environment in South Asian countries. It gives a comparative picture of six main countries of this region i.e. India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Srilanka and Nepal (whose data is available in various international and regional publications and is comparable). The aim of the paper is to assess the level of development in South Asian nations and to find out correlation between the level of development and environment. It also talks about various environmental problems in South Asia and its relationship with numerous development factors. The main objectives of the paper are: to find out the level of development in South Asian countries; to find out con‐elation between development factors; to find out correlation between environmental factors and to find out correlation among environment and development factors. In order to assess the development of South Asia various social and economic indicators are selected, based on data availability for the above mentioned countries. The indicators are Crude Death Rate, Crude Birth Rate, Fertility Rate, Life Expectancy, Infant Mortality Rate, Per capita GDP, and Population with access to sanitation, safe drinking water, Public expenditure on education (% to GNP), Public expenditure on health (% to GNP), Population below US $ 1 a day, per capita energy consumption (Kilograms oil equivalent). These indicators are assessed for all the six South Asian Countries. The countries are ranked for each indicator. This rank is given according to the nature of the indicator, the country, which shows best performance in each indicator, has
been given the highest rank i.e. 6. For example, the country with highest Crude Birth Rate (CBR) is given lowest rank i.e. 1. But the country with highest Life expectancy has been given sixth rank. In the same way five main environmental indicators are selected based on data availability of all the six countries. These indicators are number of threatened species (species that have been assessed and found lo meet one of the standard World Conservation Union status categories including threatened status: endangered, vulnerable, rare and intermediate), carbon di oxide emission (000s mt. of CO2), deforested area per year in hectare, percent of waterlogged land to total agricultural land and percent of saline land to total agricultural land. The countries are ranked on the basis of their existing situation. The country with highest number of threatened species, carbon dioxide emissions, percent of waterlogged land to total agricultural land and percent of saline land to total agricultural land and maximum deforested area has considered being most environmentally degraded and has been given lowest rank. In both the cases the rank has been added for each country and divided by number of indicators in order to obtain development and environment index. After obtaining both the indices ranks have been given to the countries. This time first rank is given to most developed country. First rank is also given to most environmentally degraded country. Finally, a correlation is found between the two. Three correlation matrix are formulated for relationship between selected developmental indicators; selected environmental factors and between these environmental and developmental factors.
Development in South Asia: South Asia is endowed with rich natural and cultural resources. Its story of development can be traced way back to the Aryan's time, one of the oldest civilizations in the world. The South Asian countries are always known for their raw material and extensive resource base. This acted as a magnet for the European countries to establish their firm foot in these nations. From silk of Bangladesh to spices of India, Europeans were handling all the resources of these nations. The people of these nations were not ready to accept the technology, science and the renaissance. Infact they were engrossed in superstitions. More over, the society was divided in varnas, which were strictly followed. The division, and heterogeneity of society made it easier for the Europeans to rule for so long. So called “Development” was an unknown concept for these nations until the Britishers came in India, the brought with them cultural and technological revolution. Introduction of railway connected the subcontinent and helped in bridging up the gap of regional, social, economic and cultural disparity.
Figure 1: Population of South Asian Countries (1950‐2050)
The huge landmass of South Asian countries was being partitioned first in 1947 (India and Pakistan) and then in 1971(Pakistan and Bangladesh). Their struggle for subsistence became even difficult. Economic and social setback made them weaker. Development became a secondary thing. Floods of Bangladesh, division of fertile land and resources between the three nations (Bangladesh, India and Pakistan) and loss of life and property in partition were few major causes for backwardness of these regions. Due to spatial variation in the intensity of all these factors, there is variation in the development scenario of South Asian countries. South Asian countries have a slow rate of development. But after development of trade routes, railways and industries, the development of the nations speeded up. The Challenge for South Asian region today is to travel the vast distance between its performance and its promise. On the one hand, it has emerged as the poorest, the most illiterate, the most malnourished and least gender ‐ sensitive region in the
world. On the other hand it has all potential to become the most dynamic region in the 21st century if there is a massive investment in human development (Report of Human Development in South Asia, 1998). The diverse and vast continental block of South Asia consists of 3.5 per cent of world's land and around 20 per cent of world's population. These countries have a large population base, which is increasing at an alarming rate. It was between 1980 and 1990 that South Asia's population grew at the annual average of 2.2 per cent as compared to world's population growth of 1.7 per cent. Along with a lowering of world population growth during the 1990's, South Asian population growth reduced to 1.9 percent (South Asia Development and Cooperation Report, 2001‐ 2002). Figure 2: Birth and Death rate of South Asian Countries
The population has increased rapidly in all countries from 1950 to 1998. In Bangladesh it has become 3 times of 1950. In Bhutan it has increased nearly 2.6
times. For India and Nepal it is 2.3 and .9 times respectively. In Srilanka the population has increased 2.4 times, while in Pakistan it is 3.74 times that of 1950. The projection shows that by 2025 growth rate is expected to fall in almost all the countries. India will reach more than 1.5 billion by 2050. Pakistan will have around 40 million populations in 2050 followed by Bangladesh, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Bhutan respectively. Looking at the variation Crude Birth Rate of these nations it can be seen that the birth rate (per thousand) is as high as 41.3 in Bhutan and as low as 17.8 in Sri Lanka. The Crude Birth Rate has fallen in all these countries, due to awareness of family planning. Crude Death Rate has also fallen in all the countries, due to the improvements in medical facilities. Bhutan has the highest CDR of 13.7 followed by Bangladesh, India, Pakistan and Nepal. Sri Lanka has the lowest CDR of 5.6 per thousand. Population increase is a root cause for all socio‐economic and environmental problems in South Asia. Two schools of thought exist and pertain different reasoning to support their views. In South Asian countries massive population has pressurized upon the resources.
Figure 3: Per Capita Availability of Land Resource
Population Pressure
Pressure on agricultural land
Land degradation and soil erosion
Loss of agricultural land
DEFORESTATION for fuel and timber products. (Northern India, Nepal and Bhutan)
Increase in carbon dioxide emission
Increase in number of threatened species (flora and Fauna)
Climate change and various respiratory diseases
Change in biological diversity and vegetation type
Floods in Bangladesh and lower regions
Loss of life and property Poverty
For example these nations, especially India, have vast agricultural land but due to increase in population, per head availability of land is very low. According to FAO Production Yearbook, per head agricultural land (Crop land + Permanent pastures) is as low as 0.12 hectare in Bangladesh to as high as 0.40 hectare in Pakistan. Per head agricultural land is very low in India i.e. 0.34 hectare. This is very low as compared to world average of 2.03 hectare per head. The low per head availability of land resource in the region leads to various environmental problems, especially land degradation. On the other hand scholars believe more people more brains and rich human resource, which can lead to innovations and inventions and lead to better planning strategies. But the reality is that on one hand, to a great extent poor and ignorant citizens are responsible for environmental degradation (which is transboundary), on the other hand over ambitious policy makers and poor administration machinery adds to it. Lack of jobs and poor women health care (especially at the time of pregnancy) failed to control the population growth after independence. Poor, who have little to sustain, require more hands to earn. Daily struggle to survive gives them no time to think about the environment. Level of Development of South Asia Taking into consideration various aspects of development an index has been formulated for the level of development in these nations, it is found that Sri Lanka is the most developed country followed by India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Bhutan and Nepal respectively. Sri Lanka has lowest birth rate, death rate and fertility rate. Life
expectancy is highest in Sri Lanka i.e. 73 years, followed by Pakistan and India respectively. Sri Lanka also has lowest Infant Mortality Rate and highest GDP per capita. In Bangladesh nearly 84 per cent of population has facility of safe drinking water as compared to Nepal, which has only 44 per cent. A large majority of population remains without access to safe water or adequate health facilities; poverty levels are high and as per the UNDP Report on Human development (1991), out of the total poor of 1200 million in the entire world, the region has 575 million and most of these are in India and Bangladesh (Hanssen, 1993). Table 1: Correlation between Selected Development Indicators Developmen t Factors
Energy Per Person Populatio n Growth Capita s < US$ Consumptio l GDP 1 a day n per head (%) (%)
Agricultura Industria l l Sectoral share to Sectoral total GDP Share to total GDP
Population Growth %
1
‐0.715
0.589
‐0.318
0.795
0.102
Per capital GDP
2
‐0.724
0.519
‐0.748
0.164
Persons < US$ 1 a day (%)
1
0.216
0.579
‐0.376
Energy Consumptio n per head
1
‐0.521
0.089
Agricultural Sectoral
1
‐0.266
share to total GDP Industrial Sectoral Share to total GDP
1
Per capita energy consumption is highest in India, followed by Pakistan and Sri Lanka respectively. India has nearly 44 per cent of people earning below US $ 1 a day, as compare to Pakistan, which has 31 per cent. Sri Lanka has only 6.6 per cent of its population earning below US $1 a day. South Asian nations' economy is based upon agriculture. The matrix shows a high correlation between population growth and agricultural Sectoral share to GDP. Per capita GDP and per capita energy consumption has a negative correlation with population growth. In South Asia, there is a positive relationship between industrial sectoral share to GDP and per capita GDP and energy consumption per head. The growth rate of GDP was 5.5 percent in 1995, which fell to 4.7 per cent in 1998 and further to 4.5 per cent in 2001. But in the year 2002 it showed a little growth and reached 5 percent per year. Industrial and service sector have expanded and their contribution to GDP has been increasing in the region. Presently, Sectoral share of GDP shows hat service sector contributes nearly 52 per cent in Sri Lanka. It varies from 35 per cent in Bhutan to 75 per cent in Maldives. Looking at per capita GNP (1999), Maldives has the highest US 1160‐followed by Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Pakistan, India and Bangladesh respectively. Nepal has the lowest per capita GNP as $ 220. In comparison, Singapore has highest per capita GNP as $ 29610.
The correlation is also done between public expenditure on health (% to GNP) and various development indicators. Population growth and industrial growth has positive correlation with public expenditure on health, i.e. 0.216 and 0.633 respectively. Environmental Problems in South Asia: Agricultural development, especially green revolution made poor farmers earn more. Agricultural contribution to Gross Domestic product increased but fertile land suffered a massive degradation. This is due to use of harmful chemicals as well as lack of appropriate knowledge to use the new technology. Water logging and‐salinity emerged as major environmental hazards and constraints for South Asian nations, for example in India, 80 million hectares out of total net cultivated area of 142 million hectares are estimated to be suffering from various degrees of land degradation (Shafi, 2000). A recent pioneering study sponsored by three United Nations agencies (FAO, UNDP and UNEP) estimated the severity and costs of land degradation in South Asia. Its shocking conclusion was that the countries (India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Afghanistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Bhutan) are losing at least US$10 billion annually as a result of losses resulting from land degradation. In many areas of sloping land, for example in Nepal, it is severe, causing permanent loss of the land's productive capacity. Relationship is also established between land man ratio and land degradation. It is found that a very high positive correlation i.e. around 0.785 exists between both. This means more the population more is the pressure on land, pressure on land to
produce more with the help of green revolution, reduced its capability in long term. Forests in South Asia are diverse and have lot of potential as a resource. It can be seen that there is very high correlation between annual deforestation and carbon di oxide emission. Table 2: Correlation between Selected Environmental Factors Environmental factors Factors Carbon emission
Land degradation % to Carbon di‐ Annual Deforestation in total agricultural land oxide Hectare emission
di‐oxide
1
0.993
0.071
Annual deforestation in hectare
1
0.126
Land degradation % to total agricultural land
1
Wood is still a major source of cooking fuel. Most of the people in Northern India, Nepal and Bhutan still rely upon wood for cooking fuel. This is because of the fact that it is a cheap source of fuel and is readily available. People living in this area are poor and cannot afford an expensive fuel, for example 80 per cent of wood production is used for fuel in this region. Massive deforestation due to urbanization and industrialization has led to various other environmental hazards like floods, increase in number of threatened species, increase in green house effect etc. All the environmental problems are interlinked with each other; therefore, massive deforestation is either due to competing land uses or for cooking fuel. Bangladesh
and Pakistan has very high rate of deforestation. India has nearly 17.4 per cent and Pakistan has only 2.45 per cent of their total land under forest. Deforestation also leads to increase in number of threatened species both of plants and animals. In Sundarbans, an ecosystem common to India and Bangladesh‐increasing population pressure has lead to massive loss in plant and animal species. Major endangered species in South Asia are Snow Leopard, Asiatic Lion, Asian elephant and Indian Python. Deforestation, in long run, lead to change in biological diversity and vegetation type. Deforestation, in up hills, can lead to soil erosion and floods in plain areas. For example in Bangladesh flood is an annual phenomenon. 80 per cent of the population of Bangladesh in vulnerable to floods More over urbanization is also a major cause of environmental problems. City planning in South Asia has not been effective. Enormous migration of people from rural to urban areas has led to haphazard growth of cities. Squatter settlements are on rise in all major cities especially in Bombay, Calcutta, Delhi, Karachi and Dhaka. Industrial development and increase of vehicles have led to air pollution. The haphazard growth of cities and juxtaposition of mixed urban land use has created various problems. The buildings vary in size and lack proper ventilations. Mushrooming of urban slums has led to development of unhygienic conditions. Moreover, narrow roads could not adjust to the vehicular boom in the cities, poor quality fuel added to the problem of air pollution. Air pollution is estimated to cause more than 250,000 deaths and billions of cases of illness every year. Haphazard growth of cities has led to mushrooming of various industrial units in
residential parts of cities. Karachi and Lahore in Pakistan, suffer from high pollution levels. Due to poor fuel quality, the high levels of lead and sulphur are introduced in the air. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has not only caused pressure on water resource but also water pollution. In Bangladesh, the recent growth of garment industries and its associated industries like dying, printing and finishing units use highly toxic wastes, dyes and chemicals. These industries are situated on riverbanks, therefore causing extreme water pollution. Figure 4: Population pressure and Environmental Problems in South Asia
Table 3. Correlation Between Development and Environmental issues in South Asia Development Population Per Persons Energy Factors Growth Capita < 1$S a consumption Environmental (%) GDP day (%) per head Factors
Agricultural sec total share to total GDP
Industrial Sectoral share to total GDP
Carbon oxide emission
di ‐0.264
Annual deforestation in hactare
‐0.236
Land ‐0.175 degradation % to total agricultural land
0.162 0.582
0.754
‐0.187
0.098
0.135 0.159
0.765
‐0.140
‐0.004
0.203 ‐0.046
0.634
‐0.241
‐0.128
Lack of planning, massive immigration and uneven distribution of resources are major causes of various environmental problems in the South Asian cities. The matrix depicts a direct positive correlation between energy consumption and deforestation, and carbon di oxide emission. Though the region is not a major global polluter, enhance energy use will double CO‐, emissions by 2010 (Hassen, 1993). A high correlation can also be observed between carbon di oxide emission and number of persons below 1 US$ a day (an important indicator of development). Per capita GDP also has positive bearing upon carbon di oxide emission, deforestation and (and degradation. A positive relationship is observed between industrial Sectoral share to total GDP and carbon di oxide emissions. It has been observed that there is a very high correlation between population growth and
number of persons below poverty line. This means it is true to an extent that high population growth in South Asia is responsible for poverty, which has high correlation with various environmental issues. Environment cannot be viewed in isolation. Population and development affect the state of Environment. Therefore it is necessary to consider population, environment and development as interacting aspect of the global phenomena (Nag, P., 2001, p374) But the question arises that is population control strategy in these nations will solve the existing environmental problem. The high and middle class people are opting for small families but poor have same old way to thinking, even in the big cities. The Human resource of such kind, which is supposed to have lot of inherent traints, can lead to several social and cultural problems in future. Moreover, as Malthus said in his theory of population, the gap between rich and poor will increase. This situation will have a negative impact on the environment. Environment in South Asia has fallen prey to the unintentional repercussions of increase in human number. Proper planning both in case of number and quality of humans is the solution to all the problems. Population, development and environment have a complex relationship amongst themselves. Environment is an open system. We get what we give. Therefore, South Asian nations must proceed to work out strategies for sustainable development rather than thinking about just economic gains. This does not mean economic gains are to be dealt as secondary strategy. Main focus should be on the proper distribution of these economic gains.
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