Political Update Presentation

There has been a significant shift in attitudes regarding the mood of the country. All in all, do you think that things in the nation are generally headed in the right direction, or do you feel that things are off on the wrong track? 100%

83%

82%

84%

81%

Wrong Track

80%

63% 60%

56%

40%

36%

20%

31% 12%

13%

15%

11%

56% 40%

Right Direction

Political Update May 2009

20 21 09

19

7 20 -9 09

il

A

pr

il

pr A

M ar 20 ch 09

a 20 ry 09

Ja nu

D ec em b 20 er 08

N ov em b 20 er 08

O ct ob 20 er 08

0%

3

Obama has an approval rating on par with other Presidents after the first 100 days. Presidential Job Approval After Approximately 100 Days

72%

78%

80% 60%

63%

67% 53%

52%

56%

34% 9%

12%

19%

Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds

R ea ga n^ B us h Sr .*

te r^ C ar

N ix on ^

Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds Ap Ds

30% 32%

18%

C lin to n* G W B us h*

6%

Tr um an Ei ^ se nh ow er ^ K en ne dy ^ Jo hn so n^

Ap

3%

10%

18%

63%

O ba m a

87%

^ Data from Gallup Polls * Data from NBC/WSJ Polls

Political Update May 2009

4

President Obama’s edge, like President Reagan’s, is the percent who “strongly approve” of the job he is doing. % “Strongly Approve”

Reagan Very high “strongly approve” ratings usually decline before overall approval ratings drop.

Bush (41) Clinton Bush (43)

*Reagan number from ABC News/Washington Post data Feb. 1981 *Bush (41) number from ABC News/Washington Post Feb. 1989 *Clinton number from ABC News/Washington Post data Feb. 1993 *Bush (43) number from Pfizer/RGA data Feb. 2001 *Obama number from POS 100-Day National data Apr. 2009

Political Update May 2009

Obama 5

Republicans and Democrats hardly see “eye-to-eye” on the President. Barack Obama: Job Approval By Party

94%

63 pt. gap 62%

75% Strongly

60%

43% Strongly

31%

32% Strongly

33% 22% Strongly

5% Approve

Disapprove

GOP (30%) Political Update May 2009

Approve

Disapprove

Ind (32%)

Approve

Disapprove

Dem (37%) 6

Voters still don’t show Congress much love. U.S. Congress: Job Approval

70% 62% 55% 41%

54% 40% 31%36% Strg

56% 34%

App Dis

App Dis

App Dis

App Dis

Feb. 2006

Mar. 2006

Jul. 2006

Jan. 2007

Political Update May 2009

39% 30% Strg

27% Strg

57%

51%

31% Strg

26% Strg

76%

40% Strg

43% Strg

39%

37% Strg

21%

19%

App Dis

App Dis

App Dis

App Dis

Feb. 2007

Sep. 2008

Oct. 2008

Apr. 2009 8

Note that WP poll shows scores for both “Democrats in Congress” and “Republicans in Congress” have slipped. The Democrats in Congress: Job Approval Feb. 22, 2009

The Republicans in Congress: Job Approval

Apr. 24, 2009

Feb. 22, 2009

Apr. 24, 2009

64% 50%

56% 44%

45%

49% 38% 30%

App

Dis Total

App

Dis Total

App

Dis Total

App

Dis Total

Data from a Washington Post/ABC national survey of 1,072 adults, conducted April 21-24, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

9

More WP: We’re better off posting up against “Democrats in Congress.” How much confidence to you have in [ITEM] to make the right decisions for the country’s future a great deal of confidence, a good amount, just some or none at all?

Barack Obama

Democrats in Congress

63%

60% 40% 31% Great deal

15% None at all Just some/ None at all

Great deal/ Good amount Total

36% 12% Great deal Great deal/ Good amount

25% None at all Just some/ None at all

Total

Data from a Washington Post/ABC national survey of 1,072 adults, conducted April 21-24, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

10

Especially when Pelosi and Reid have these numbers. Now, I would like to read you a list of various national public figures, and for each one, please tell me if you have a favorable or unfavorable opinion of them. If you haven’t heard of them, just tell me and we’ll move on.

Nancy Pelosi

Harry Reid

44% 35% Very

27%

Favorable

Unfavorable

24% 14%

17% Very

Favorable

Unfavorable

Total

Total

Data from a Hotline national survey of 800 Registered Voters, conducted April 23-26, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

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Not surprisingly, Democratic Congressional leaders are considered out of step with voters’ political ideology. 54% Ideology of Electorate

44%

41%

28%

12%

Ideology of Democratic leaders in Congress

Conservative Political Update May 2009

Moderate

13% Liberal 12

The generic Congressional ballot shows the GOP candidate just four points back. And, if the 2010 election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote... The Republican Candidate ...or... The Democratic Candidate

-10

-9

43%

-1

45%

43% 34%

33%

-10

35%

35% 36%

-3 39% 42%

-4

37% 23% Def

41% 28% Def

GOP DEM

GOP DEM

GOP DEM

GOP DEM

GOP DEM

GOP DEM

2006*

2007*

2008*

March 14, 2009

April 9, 2009

April 21, 2009

* Merged data from all national surveys conducted by POS in the indicated year.

Political Update May 2009

13

Note the wide gender gap. And, if the 2010 Election for U.S. Congress were being held today, for whom would you vote... The GOP Candidate ...or... The Democratic Candidate Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people.

By Gender

47%

42% 34% 25% Very

23% Very DEM

GOP Men (48%)

Political Update May 2009

32% 33% Very

21% Very GOP

DEM Women (52%)

14

The gender gap crosses generational lines. Younger voters remain a huge challenge for us. Generic Ballot by Gender/Age

-1%

+26%

+12%

-40%

-6%

-21%

65% 55% 45%

41% 42% 29%

Men 18-34 (9%)

Men 35-54 (20%)

37%

33% 25%

Men 55+ (19%)

28%

Women 18-34 Women 35-54 Women 55+ (12%) (21%) (19%)

GOP Candidate

Political Update May 2009

49%

43%

Dem Candidate

15

Regionally, the GOP has seen some improvement in the Midwest, but still has major problems in the Northeast. Generic Ballot by Region

-15%

46%

0%

40%

+5%

40%

43%

31%

Northeast (22%)

Midwest (22%) GOP Candidate

Political Update May 2009

-5%

38%

South (34%)

41%

46%

West (22%)

Dem Candidate

16

By a wide margin, voters say their 2010 vote for Congress will be for a candidate who can be a “check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats in Congress.” And, thinking some about the election for U.S. Congress, for whom would you vote between... A Congressional candidate who will help Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress pass their agenda. …or… A Congressional candidate who can be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats.

56% 34%

Check and balance to Obama and Democrats

Help Obama and Democrats pass their agenda Total

Political Update May 2009

18

This is a particularly potent sentiment among Independents. And, thinking some about the election for U.S. Congress, for whom would you vote between... A Congressional candidate who will help Barack Obama and Democrats in Congress pass their agenda. …or… A Congressional candidate who can be a check and balance to Barack Obama and the Democrats.

87%

By Party

62%

57%

27%

Check and balance

8% Help pass agenda

Check and balance

GOP (30%) Political Update May 2009

Help pass agenda

IND (32%)

31%

Check and balance

Help pass agenda

DEM (37%) 19

A majority of voters agree that since Dems control Congress and the Presidency, “it would be good to have more checks and balances in Washington by electing more Republicans to Congress.” Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Since Democrats have complete control of Congress and the Presidency, it would be good to have more checks and balances in Washington by electing more Republicans to Congress.

54% 45% 37% Strongly

26% Strongly

Agree

Disagree Total

Political Update May 2009

21

Note the strong agreement among Independents, seniors and generic ballot undecideds. Do you agree or disagree with the following statement? Since Democrats have complete control of Congress and the Presidency, it would be good to have more checks and balances in Washington by electing more Republicans to Congress.

61%

55%

53% 43%

35% Strongly 23% Strongly Agree

Disagree

Independent (32%) Political Update May 2009

44%

46% Strongly

Agree

36% 26% Strongly

28% Strongly

Disagree

Agree

Age 65+ (19%)

19% Strongly Disagree

Generic Ballot Und. (21%) 22

Even The Democracy Corps’ recent battleground poll confirms this message. Now I’m going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Every Republican in Congress voted against President Obama’s budget because they are trying to obstruct Obama’s agenda and playing politics. ...OR... Every Republican in Congress voted against President Obama’s budget because they disagree with Obama and want to provide checks and balances.

Total

Democratic Districts

52%

51% 43%

41%

Obstruct Obama Checks & balances Total

Obstruct Obama Checks & balances DEM Districts

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

23

The average party out-of-power loss with a double digit Misery Index is 22 House seats.

10.1% 8.34% 6.86%

Change Midterms 13 of 15

Status Quo Midterms 2 of 15

March 2009

Average Misery Index

Political Update May 2009

24

Talking About Health Care

Political Update May 2009

25

Start by connecting to how people feel about the current health care system: “America’s health care system is broken and must be fixed.” Acknowledge their concerns about getting/keeping affordable coverage. Talk about cost in terms of its impact on people and families. Talk about poor quality care caused by overuse, misuse, waste, fraud, and doctors having to practice defensive medicine which drives up health care costs. Political Update May 2009

26

Take advantage of the strong belief a health system that puts its emphasis on keeping people healthy would be less expensive.

Have an aspirational goal about the reason controlling cost is so important. People easily believe there is a link between high cost and the inability to cover more people.

Political Update May 2009

27

The Key “C-Words” of Health Care:

Political Update May 2009

28

Something beats nothing. When we test only the Democrats’ positions and the GOP rebuttal, this was effective. Republicans have to have a plan.

Political Update May 2009

29

After rating each individual element of the plan, overall, 68% favor/27% oppose a Republican health plan. The Republican Health Care Plan Ranked By % Favor

Parts Of Health Care Plan

% Favor

% Oppose

Portability Health insurance industry cannot refuse or deny coverage National Marketplace / AHPs Medical Liability Reform Health Savings Accounts Political Update May 2009

30

Focus group research and other surveys suggest there are two elements that test well across every audience: ; Requiring health insurance companies to cover pre-existing conditions. ; Providing small businesses with tax credits to help provide health coverage to their employees.

Political Update May 2009

31

Let’s be clear… The Democrats are using our language of choice, competition and cost control as a means to sell a vast expansion of the government’s role in health care!

Political Update May 2009

32

Support for a public plan collapses if there are stronger rules and regulations in place to cover pre-existing medical conditions. Establishing a new public health insurance plan that is run by the government. In this plan the government would set the rates it pays doctors and hospitals, set prices for premiums and determine which treatments it would cover. The new public plan would guarantee coverage for everyone.

… OR … Putting stronger rules and regulations on the health care industry, such as requiring by law that health insurers must cover individuals with pre-existing medical conditions and stop charging higher premiums to sick people. Under this plan, everyone would be required to have health insurance and there would be health care tax credits to make sure it’s affordable for working and middle-class individuals.

Public Plan 23% Stronger Rules and Regulations

66%

Don't Know/ Refused* Both*

Neither 9%

*1% or less

Political Update May 2009

33

The worst outcome is one which limits choice. The most likely thing to happen is employers dropping coverage. It would control costs by offering a onesize-fits-all benefits package so it would end up limiting your choice of doctors and medical treatment options.

% Total Likely To Happen

% 0-3 Rating / Worst Outcome

It would put America on the path toward a completely government-run health care system.

Employers, especially small businesses would stop offering private health coverage because now people could get coverage through the public plan.

Political Update May 2009

34

There is significant concern about: 1)

The role of Congress in developing a new government health plan;

2)

The drift towards a government-run system;

3)

The consequence to Medicare, Medicaid, and the access to care under the government plan; and,

4)

The issue of displacement as millions of people would be dropped from private coverage into the government plan.

Political Update May 2009

35

What You Should Say When Asked About The Public Plan: •

•

•

•

•

•

It is a government-run health insurance plan. It is a one-size-fits-all benefits package that would limit your choice of doctors, your choice of medical treatment options, and have the federal government take over control of your health care. It would be designed by Congress. Use the example of Congress’ failed intervention into the economy as helping financial firms instead or hardworking Americans as a reason for them to stay out of health care. It will take us on a path to a government-run health care system which means lower quality of care and rationing of care. You could end up not being able to see the doctor of your choice as the government plan could reimburse doctors so little for their services they stop accepting or dropping patients covered by the government plan. Millions of Americans will lose their good private health coverage and be forced into a new government plan.

Political Update May 2009

36

He’s clearly considered to the left of how voters view themselves. (Fully 52% of voters consider Obama to be on their ideological left.) 49%

Ideology of Electorate

44%

41% 34%

11%

Ideology of Obama

13% Conservative Political Update May 2009

Moderate

Liberal 38

While a majority of voters say they support President Obama’s policies, few voters are confident they will work. Which one of following best describes how you feel about President Obama and his economic policies? I support Obama's economic policies and am confident they will work. I support Obama's economic policies and hope they will work. I support what Obama is trying to do on the economy, but I have doubts whether his economic policies will work. I oppose President Obama's economic policies.

43% 22%

21%

Support, have doubts

Oppose

13% Support, confident

Support, hopeful Total

Political Update May 2009

39

Voter concerns about Obama focus on spending that goes too far and taking on too many issues. Now, regardless of whether you consider yourself to be a supporter of President Obama, which one of the following, if any, concerns you the most about him...

He's trying to take on too many issues

26%

His proposals for increased government spending go too far

26%

He's not winning bi-partisan support for his policies

15%

His proposals will result in higher taxes

15%

He's too focused on foreign affairs

Political Update May 2009

4%

40

His own base is worried about taking on too many issues and not winning bi-partisan support, while Republicans are more concerned about spending. Now, regardless of whether you consider yourself to be a supporter of President Obama, which one of the following, if any, concerns you the most about him...

By Party

GOP (30%)

IND (32%)

DEM (37%)

He's trying to take on too many issues

19%

29%

30%

His proposals for increased government spending go too far

40%

27%

13%

He's not winning bi-partisan support for his policies

6%

14%

25%

His proposals will result in higher taxes

25%

13%

8%

He's too focused on foreign affairs

4%

5%

4%

Political Update May 2009

41

Voters have heard about the “Tea Party" protests and are sympathetic to the goals and objectives of the protests. “How much have you seen, read or heard about last week's "Tea Party" protests? Would you say...”

Total A Lot/Some: 68% Total Not Much/Nothing: 32%

A Lot 34%

“And, how sympathetic are you to the goals and objectives of these "Tea Party" protests? Are you...”

Total Sympathetic: 59% Total Not Sympathetic: 31%

Smwht Sympathetic 32%

Some 34%

Very Sympathetic 27%

DK 9%

Nothing At All 12%

Not Too Much 20% Political Update May 2009

Not Very Sympathetic 13%

Not At All Sympathetic 18% 42

And those Tea Parties? Their supporters are more concerned with government spending. Asked only of respondents saying they are “Very” or “Somewhat” sympathetic to the goals and objectives of these “Tea Party” protests? And, what concerns you more... The possibility of your taxes going up ...or... Increased government spending and the national debt?

59%

31%

The possibility of your taxes going up

Increased government spending and the national debt Total

Political Update May 2009

43

More from Democracy Corps: Voters believe Obama’s economic plan will add to the budget deficit. Now I’m going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. President Obama's economic plan will reduce the budget deficit in the long term. ...OR... President Obama's economic plan will add to the budget deficit in the long term.

Total

Democratic Districts

58%

55% 39%

37%

Reduce budget deficit

Add to budget deficit

Total

Reduce budget deficit

Add to budget deficit

DEM Districts

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

44

And, voters ARE divided on spending. Now I’m going to read you some more pairs of statements. After I read each pair, please tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right. Right now, it is necessary for the government to spend money in order to get us out of the recession and put our economy on the road to recovery, even if it means larger short-term deficits. ...OR... Right now, the government should not be spending so much money because the increased deficits and long-term debt will prolong the recession and damage our economy in the long run.

Total

49%

Spending necessary

Democratic Districts

48%

Should not be spending so much Total

49%

47%

Spending necessary

Should not be spending so much

DEM Districts

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

45

That reinforces the recent NBC/WSJ polling regarding the “role of government.” I'm going to read you two statements about the role of government, and I'd like to know which one comes closer to your point of view. Government is doing too many things better left to businesses and individuals., ...or... Government should do more to solve problems and help meet the needs of people.

62% 52%

51%

45% 41%43% 40%

32%

Dec. 1995

Dec. 1997

Jan. 2002

Mar. 2007

55%

38%

Sep. 2007

53%

42%

Jul. 2008

51% 48% 47% 46%47% 45% 42% 40%

Sep. 2008

Oct. 2008

Feb. 2009

Apr. 2009

Data from a NBC/WSJ national poll of 1,005 adults, conducted April 23-26, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

46

The D’s best messages – Veterans and Alternative Energy (ASK ONLY IN DEMOCRATIC-HELD DISTRICTS) Now let me read you some statements some people make about (House Incumbent). After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH MORE LIKELY to support (House Incumbent), SOMEWHAT MORE LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE MORE LIKELY, NO MORE LIKELY or LESS LIKELY to support (House Incumbent)? After years of seeing our veterans come home to inadequate health care, education and job opportunities, (Democratic House Incumbent) helped pass a budget that provides the largest increase in veterans benefits in history. It expands veterans education so they can find jobs and provides timely and high quality care to 500,000 low-income veterans who were previously ineligible for care from the V.A.

(Democratic House Incumbent) voted for and passed an economic recovery package that includes investments that will double the nation's supply of alternative energy, create 300,000 clean energy jobs that can never be shipped overseas and make America the world leader in alternative energy like wind and solar.

45%

69%

Much More

40% Much More

Total More

59% Total More

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

47

Our best hits against the D’s – Spending and Middle Class Tax Hike (ASK ONLY IN DEMOCRATIC-HELD DISTRICTS) Now let me read you some statements some people make about (House Incumbent). After hearing each statement please tell me if it makes you MUCH LESS LIKELY to support (House Incumbent), SOMEWHAT LESS LIKELY, JUST A LITTLE LESS LIKELY, NO LESS LIKELY or MORE LIKELY to support (House Incumbent)? (Democratic House Incumbent) has voted for 1.2 trillion in new spending in the last two months alone, that's over 1 billion dollars in new spending every hour. Now (he/she) is supporting a budget with a trillion dollar deficit that will leave mountains of debt for our grandchildren to pay, money that America is borrowing from China and the Middle East.

(Democratic House Incumbent) and the Democrats in Congress say that they've supported an investment in alternative energy but what they really voted for was a massive tax on the middle class. The Democrats' energy plan will cost every middle class American who turns on a light switch or drives a car $3,100 a year in additional taxes.

46% Much Less

44% Much Less

61% Total Less

57% Total Less

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

48

These plans lay the foundation for long-term prosperity by… Reforming health care to bring costs down for consumers and businesses, Investing in education so our children can compete in the world market, And, making America the leader in renewable energy so the jobs and industries of the future are built right here, not in China or India - all while putting us on a path toward fiscal sustainability by cutting the deficit in half over the next four years. Political Update May 2009

49

With all of the bailouts, the trillion-dollar stimulus bill and now the four trillion dollar budget Obama and the Democrats are… Spending too much, Taxing too much, And, borrowing too much. They pay for all this spending by implementing the largest tax increase in American history and borrowing from nations like China, tripling our debt in the next ten years and saddling our children and grandchildren with massive problems in the years to come. Political Update May 2009

50

The GOP edges the Democrat. I'd like you to tell me whether the FIRST statement or the SECOND statement comes closer to your own view, even if neither is exactly right.

Path to fiscal sustainability

Spending too much

47%

49% 40% Strongly

33% Strongly

Democratic Statement

Republican Statement Total

Data from a Democracy Corps survey of 1,500 Likely Voters in 40 D-held and 15 R-held districts, conducted April 16-21, 2009.

Political Update May 2009

51

One of our challenges: most voters believe we simply oppose whatever Obama proposes. Do you believe that the Republican party has offered credible policy alternatives to President Obama's economic programs. ...or... Do you believe that Republicans have a policy of simply opposing whatever Obama proposes.

52% 38%

Offered credible policy alternatives

Simply oppose whatever Obama proposes Total

Political Update May 2009

52

We need to be patient. Obama’s numbers have slipped with both GOPers and Independents, but it will be a long time before he drops with Democrats. People like the President personally, and want to see him succeed. Voters like Obama much more than they like his policies. (Stimulus package still losing support.)

Political Update May 2009

54

Trying to take on too much too quickly may help unravel this administration.

D’s in Congress not sharing in the Obama glow. (Make THEM your target.) However, GOPers are already better off now than we were in November…or January

Political Update May 2009

55

There IS relevancy for a GOP "Watchdog" role (spending and security). "Out-of-control spending" setting table for GOP "check and balance" message. Skepticism toward government remains, but voters give government more leeway right now to see if it can effect change. Voters will soon tire of government spending from which they derive no benefit.

Political Update May 2009

56

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