Peramalan
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PERAMALAN Data historis bulanan unutk 3 tahun sbb Bulan 2004 2005 2006 Januari 241 250 253 Februari 231 252 236 Maret 238 248 245 April 246 241 250 Mei 242 247 260 Juni 248 244 253 Juli 237 244 249 Agustus 236 249 242 September 240 251 248 Oktober 231 238 244 November 253 249 247 Desember 248 252 257 Jumlah 2891 2965 2984 MSE SA = MA =
656/12 = 807/12 =
SA 245.5 241.5 243 243.5 244.5 246 240.5 242.5 245.5 234.5 251 250
∇ 56.25 30.25 4 42.25 240.25 49 72.25 0.25 6.25 90.25 16 49 656
∇ MA I i 2006 Ŷ (2006)/bln Ŷ (SAASI) 250.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 252.5 272.25 0.990 250.38 247.82 244.5 0.25 0.996 250.38 249.36 240.5 90.25 0.998 250.38 249.87 247.5 156.25 1.002 250.38 250.90 255 4 1.008 250.38 252.44 256.5 56.25 0.986 250.38 246.79 251 81 0.994 250.38 248.84 245.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 245 1 0.961 250.38 240.63 246 1 1.029 250.38 257.57 245.5 132.25 1.025 250.38 256.54 807
54.67 67.25
MSE (saasi) = MSE (saasi) =
Persamaan ramalan tren linier (least squares) Tahun 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jumlah
Y 2750 2800 2891 2965 2984 14390 a = 14390 5 a= 2878
X -2 -1 0 1 2
X^2 4 1 0 1 4 10 b= b=
X.Y -5500 -2800 0 2965 5968 633 633 10 63.3
Ŷ (2006) = 2878 + 63,3 (2) = 3004,6 y perbulan 250.38
Y = a + bx
433.31 12 36.11
∇ 1.16 139.66 18.98 0.02 82.88 0.32 4.88 46.84 15.39 11.32 111.65 0.21 433.31
Ii 2004 Ii 2005 0.996 0.998 0.953 1.012 1.008 0.988 1.049 0.964 1.000 1.010 1.016 1.000 0.967 0.994 0.973 1.020 1.015 1.018 0.971 0.952 1.074 1.018 1.025 1.035
Ŷ i (MAASI) 2006 Ii bar (2006)Ŷ i (MA) 2006 0.997 250.5 249.73 0.982 252.5 248.03 0.998 244.5 244.07 1.007 240.5 242.07 1.005 247.5 248.77 1.008 255 257.09 0.981 256.5 251.53 0.997 251 250.21 1.017 245.5 249.56 0.961 245 235.52 1.046 246 257.40 1.030 245.5 252.83
MSE (Maasi) MSE (Maasi)
636 12 53.00
∇ 10.68 144.82 0.86 62.91 126.22 16.73 6.39 67.37 2.43 71.96 108.24 17.4 636
656/12 = 807/12 =
SA 245.5 241.5 243 243.5 244.5 246 240.5 242.5 245.5 234.5 251 250
∇ 56.25 30.25 4 42.25 240.25 49 72.25 0.25 6.25 90.25 16 49 656
∇ MA I i 2006 Ŷ (2006)/bln Ŷ (SAASI) 250.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 252.5 272.25 0.990 250.38 247.82 244.5 0.25 0.996 250.38 249.36 240.5 90.25 0.998 250.38 249.87 247.5 156.25 1.002 250.38 250.90 255 4 1.008 250.38 252.44 256.5 56.25 0.986 250.38 246.79 251 81 0.994 250.38 248.84 245.5 6.25 1.006 250.38 251.92 245 1 0.961 250.38 240.63 246 1 1.029 250.38 257.57 245.5 132.25 1.025 250.38 256.54 807
54.67 67.25
MSE (saasi) = MSE (saasi) =
Persamaan ramalan tren linier (least squares) Tahun 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 Jumlah
Y 2750 2800 2891 2965 2984 14390 a = 14390 5 a= 2878
X -2 -1 0 1 2
X^2 4 1 0 1 4 10 b= b=
X.Y -5500 -2800 0 2965 5968 633 633 10 63.3
Ŷ (2006) = 2878 + 63,3 (2) = 3004,6 y perbulan 250.38
Y = a + bx
433.31 12 36.11
∇ 1.16 139.66 18.98 0.02 82.88 0.32 4.88 46.84 15.39 11.32 111.65 0.21 433.31
Ii 2004 Ii 2005 0.996 0.998 0.953 1.012 1.008 0.988 1.049 0.964 1.000 1.010 1.016 1.000 0.967 0.994 0.973 1.020 1.015 1.018 0.971 0.952 1.074 1.018 1.025 1.035
Ŷ i (MAASI) 2006 Ii bar (2006)Ŷ i (MA) 2006 0.997 250.5 249.73 0.982 252.5 248.03 0.998 244.5 244.07 1.007 240.5 242.07 1.005 247.5 248.77 1.008 255 257.09 0.981 256.5 251.53 0.997 251 250.21 1.017 245.5 249.56 0.961 245 235.52 1.046 246 257.40 1.030 245.5 252.83
MSE (Maasi) MSE (Maasi)
636 12 53.00
∇ 10.68 144.82 0.86 62.91 126.22 16.73 6.39 67.37 2.43 71.96 108.24 17.4 636
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