Ngr S Population Dynamics
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NIGERIA’S POPULATION DYNAMICS AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT Professor Adeyemi O. Adekunle Department of Obstetrics and Gynaecology College of Medicine, University of Ibadan University College Hospital, Ibadan, Nigeria. Adekunle A.O.
1
NIGERIA’S POPULATION DYNAMICS AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SESSION OBJECTIVES
Define Population Dynamics;
Discuss the various indices used in measuring population growth;
Present Nigeria’s Demographic Profile
List the relevant Social and Economic Indicators for Nigeria;
Highlight the findings of the 2003 National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS);
Discuss the consequences and the implications of rapid population growth for national 2 development. Adekunle A.O.
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population Dynamics is the study of the size, composition, and growth of populations.
MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH The size of a population and its pattern of growth depend on the balance between: Birth Deaths, and Migration Adekunle A.O.
3
MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH Population Size
Births
+
Deaths
Migration
Either to an increase if there is migration or to a decrease if there is emigration.
These factors can be measured by a number of simple rates: Adekunle A.O.
4
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
The contribution of births to population growth is measured by the Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Births Per Year x 1,000 = Births per Total Population pop. per year (mid year)
It is expressed as a rate per thousand population. Adekunle A.O.
5
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
The contribution of births to population growth is measured by the Crude Death Rate: Deaths Per Year Total Population (mid year)
x 1,000 = Deaths per pop. per year
i.e., the number of deaths per year divided by the total population in that year. It is expressed as a rate per thousand population.
Adekunle A.O.
6
CRUDE RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE
The rate of growth due to excess of births over deaths can be measured by the CRUDE RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE, i.e.: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) minus Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Adekunle A.O.
7
NET MIGRATION RATE (NMR)
The effects of migration are measured as the NET MIGRATION RATE:
Number of – Number of Immigrants Emigrants X 1,000 Total Population (mid year)
= Net migration /1,000 pop. per year Depending on the balance between immigration and emigration, the net migration rate may be positive or negative. Adekunle A.O.
8
CRUDE RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE
The crude rate of population increase summarizes the combined effects of births, deaths, and emigration, and is simply:
Crude Birth - Crude Death + Net Migration Rate (CBR) Rate (CDR) Rate
These rates are called CRUDE because they do not relate the events (births, deaths or migration) to the true population at risk, e.g. Adekunle A.O.
9
“Crude Rates”
Births can only occur to women of reproductive age, but the crude birth rate relates the number of births to the total population, which includes children, the elderly, and men, as well as women of reproductive age.
The majority of deaths in a population may occur among infants and children in developing countries, but the crude death rate relates the number of deaths to the total population. Adekunle A.O.
10
Significance of the “Crude Rates”
Despite the facts that these rates are crude, they provide useful demographic information, particularly with respect to the rate of population growth, e.g.:
If the crude rate of population increase is 1% per year, the population will double in approximately 69 years;
If the crude rate of population increase is even higher, say 3 per cent per year, the population will double in approximately 23 years (69 divided by 3). Adekunle A.O.
11
VITAL STATISTICS
Vital Statistics are records of certain vital events, e.g. births, deaths, marriages, etc.
Sources of health statistics include:
Notification of diseases
Institutional records
Epidemiological surveys,
Demographic surveys, e.g., NDHS, Fertility Surveys,
Data collected for determination of population Census Data collected for other purposes, e.g., school health, utilization of medical services, insurance.
Adekunle A.O.
12
SPECIFIC RATES
INFANT MORTALITY RATE: No. of deaths in infants (<1 yr) x 1,000 No.of live births during the year
NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE No. of deaths in infants (<1/12 yr) x 1,000 No.of live births during the year
STILLBIRTH RATE: No. of fetal deaths after 28/52 pregnancy x 1,000 No. births during the year Adekunle A.O.
13
SPECIFIC RATES (Contd.)
PERINATAL MORTALITY RATE
No. of stillbirth & deaths in infants (≤ 1/12 yr) x 1,000 No. births during the year
MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE: No. Maternal deaths due pregnancy x 100,000 No. births during the year
FERTILITY RATE No. Births in a year x 1,000 No. of women between 15 - 49 Adekunle A.O.
14
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Land Area (sq km)
285,912 140,600
Total Population
88,500,000
Estimated (2003)
126,000,000
Arable land Forest Land
923,768
Crude Population
96
(Density/sq m) (Varies from 27 persons/sq km in Taraba State cf 1,712 persons in Lagos State
Critical Population
310
(Density/sq km of Arable land)
Rural/Urban Ratio
69/39 Adekunle A.O.
15
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
AGE STRUCTURE
Nigeria has a young population compared to more advanced countries
< 1 year = 4.4
< 4 years = 18.0
< 14 years = 25.6
15–64 years = 49.6
> 65 years = 2.4
NIGERIA 1999 80 + 7575-79 7070-74 6565-69 6060-64 5555-59 5050-54 4545-49 4040-44 3535-39 3030-34 2525-29 2020-24 1515-19 1010-14 5-9 0-4 -2 0 -2 0
Male
-1 5 -1 5
-1 0 -1 0
-5
20 15 10 5 -5
UNITED KINGDOM 2000
Female
0
0 0
5
5 5
1 0 1 0
1 5 15
2 0 2 0
10 15 20
Percent of population
Adekunle A.O.
80 + 7575-79 7070-74 6565-69 6060-64 5555-59 5050-54 4545-49 4040-44 3535-39 3030-34 2525-29 2020-24 1515-19 1010-14 5-9 0-4
Male
-2 0-2 0
- 1- 51 5
- 1- 01 0
Female Female
-5 -5
20 15 10 5
00
0
5 5
5
1 01 0
1 51 5
2 02 0
10 15 20
Percent of population
16
Peculiarities of Distribution Pattern
High Dependency Ratio = 101.6%
Median Age = 15.8 years
About 44% of the population below 15 years; Consequently, the country has a high depency ratio of 89 dependants to 100 persons in the productive ages of 15 – 64. This contrasts with 2 or 3 productive adults for each child in the developed world.
Lower productivity. Adekunle A.O.
17
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000 persons) Crude Death Rate (per 1,000 persons) Annual Population Growth Rate (%) 2.7 Population Doubling Time (years) Life Expectancy (years) Total Fertility Rate MORTALITY RATES Infant Mortality Rate/1,000 live births Childhood Mortality Rate/1,000 births Maternal Mortality Rate/100,000 live births Adekunle A.O.
39 14
23 54 5.2
105 178 800 18
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.) EDUCATION INDICATORS(%) Literacy level
52
Male Female Primary School Enrollment
44 44 65
HEALTH INDICATORS
Access to Health Service (%) Less than 6 km 6-15 km Rural Women >15 km No facility known Adekunle A.O.
54 12 32 2 19
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
HEALTH INDICATORS (contd.) Access to portable water 17% Access to basic sanitation 20% Access to Electric Power Supply 47%
LABOUR STRUCTURE (%) Agriculture Industry Commerce Others Adekunle A.O.
70 10 15 5 20
Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS)
The NDHS is a nationally representative survey of women aged 15-49.
All states in the Federal Republic of Nigeria are usually covered by the survey;
The aim is to gather reliable statistics on the demographic structure of the population and health practices nationwide.
Surveys had been conducted in 1990, 1993, 1999 and recently in 2003. Adekunle A.O.
21
Fertility, Proximate Determinants and Fertility Preferences Key Findings
Fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman.
Fertility varies considerably by region with lower rates in the south than in the north.
One in four women start having children before age 20. Rural women are most likely to be teenage mothers.
Men and women continue to want large families. Adekunle A.O.
22
Fertility Rate in Nigeria compared to other African countries
Adekunle A.O.
23
Nigeria’s Fertility Trends
Adekunle A.O.
24
Variation in Fertility Rates by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
25
Variation in Fertility Rates by Education
Adekunle A.O.
26
BIRTH INTERVALS
In addition to their impact on fertility, birth intervals may affect the health of mothers and their children: Short birth intervals (less than 24 months) are associated with small birth size and low birth weight and lead to poor health status in early childhood. Mothers whose births are separated by short intervals have less time to recuperate from previous pregnancies and deliveries. This leads to an increased risk of anemia.
One in 4 women between the ages of 15-19 is already a mother or pregnant with her first child. Adekunle A.O.
27
LENGTH OF BIRTH INTERVALS
Adekunle A.O.
28
Age at First Marriage and First Sexual Intercourse
Adekunle A.O.
29
IDEAL FAMILY SIZE
The ideal number of children differs between men and women. Married men want 10.6 children Married women want 7.3 children
The mean ideal family size among all varies by residence. Urban women want 6.0 children Rural women want 7.0 children Women in the North West want 8.6 children Women in the South West want 4.8 children Adekunle A.O.
30
VARIATION IN IDEAL FAMILY SIZE BY EDUCATION
Adekunle A.O.
31
MATERNAL HEALTH
60% of women received antenatal care at least once from a trained health care provider;
Two-thirds of the births occur at home;
17% of women have NO ASSISTANCE during delivery and 26% are assisted by untrained persons.
Rural women have much less access to care during pregnancy and delivery. Adekunle A.O.
32
ASSISTANCE DURING DELIVERY
Adekunle A.O.
33
SUMMARY OF FERTILITY TRENDS IN NIGERIA
Fertility rate is declining, but very slowly.
Fertility varies considerably by region: programs need to be zone-specific.
Rural and less advantaged women are more likely to become young mothers.
Actual fertility is higher than wanted fertility. Adekunle A.O.
34
INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY
Infant mortality: there are 100 infant deaths for every 1000 live births;
Child Mortality: there are 201 children who will die by the age of 5 for every 1000 born. Adekunle A.O.
35
CHILDHOOD MORTALITY LEVELS IN NIGERIA
Adekunle A.O.
36
INFANT MORTALITY IN NIGERIA ACCORDING TO REGIONS
Adekunle A.O.
37
INFANT MORTALITY RATES IN AFRICA
Adekunle A.O.
38
Maternal Factors Associated with High Risks of Child Mortality
Adekunle A.O.
39
Maternal Factors Associated with High Risks of Child Mortality
According to the NDHS, 64% of births in Nigeria are classified as high risk births.
High risk births include having a child: –Too young - before 18 years of age –Too old - after 34 years of age –Too close together – less than 24 months apart –Too many – birth order 4 and above
Adekunle A.O.
40
FAMILY PLANNING IN NIGERIA: KEY FINDINGS FROM 2003 NDHS
Only 13% of married women use any method of family planning.
Although three-quarters of women know of at least one method of modern family planning, only 8 percent of currently married women are using one.
Contraceptive knowledge and use vary significantly by region.
There are many missed opportunities for increasing family planning acceptance and use.
Seventeen (17) percent of currently married women have an unmet need for family planning. Adekunle A.O.
41
Contraceptive Knowledge by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
42
Use of Modern Contraception in Nigeria by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
43
Use of modern methods in Nigeria compared to other countries
Adekunle A.O.
44
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and is among the ten most populous countries in the world;
While population is a natural resource, if its growth is not properly managed, it could be one of the constraints to the efforts of govt. to fulfill its commitment to improve the quality of life and living standards.
High fertility over a long period of time has resulted in a population with a large no. of young persons. Adekunle A.O.
45
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.)
Thus, Nigeria has a powerful momentum for population growth built into its age structure. If the present high rate of pop. Growth continues, Nigeria will double its population in 24 years. This means Nigeria will have 118 million more people in the country in 2025 than in 2001! This means that Nigeria will have to double its entire infrastructure to maintain today's low standard of living.
Adekunle A.O.
46
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) EDUCATION With the continued rapid growth, both the no. of school-age children and school enrolments will increase phenomenally.
This will result in: Worsening pupil/teacher ratio Overcrowded classrooms Shortage of educational materials Need for greater funding in education. Adekunle A.O.
47
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) HEALTH AND NUTRITION
As the population expands rapidly, it will become more and more difficult to provide sufficient personnel, facilities and financial resources to maintain and improve health services and living standards.
Also,rapid increase in the no. of children under five years of age and women in their child bearing years (the groups with the greatest health care needs) will result in increase pressure on the health system. Adekunle A.O.
48
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) URBANIZATION
Rapid pop.growth has led to an increase in the level of urbanization; estimated at 3.7% per annum.
At present, most urban residents live in squalid and congested environmental conditions:
Poverty is widespread and underemployment and unemployment are high;
There is lack of access to adequate health services, portable water, good roads and electricity;
Crime rates are high, and residents lack security with regards to their lives and property. Adekunle A.O.
49
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) HOUSING
Housing is one of the basic necessities of life.
Rapid rate of growth of both the urban and rural populations and inadequate funding has made it extremely difficult to provide sufficient housing for an ever-increasing population. LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT
Rapid population growth places extraordinary demands on the ability of the economy to provide jobs for all new entrants to the labour force. Adekunle A.O.
50
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) PER CAPITA
The standard of living of most Nigerians declined during the 1980s and did not improve during the decade of the 1990s.
Continued rapid population growth will make it difficult for Nigeria to make real gains in raising GPD per capita. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
The sector will need to double food production over the next 24 years to maintain today’s low nutritional standards. Adekunle A.O.
51
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.)
ENVIRONMENT Rapid population growth has led to continued degradation of the ecosystem:
In urban areas: pollution, accumulation of solid and liquid wastes, spread of shanty towns. In rural: over cultivation, deforestation, etc;
ENERGY RESOURCES
Increased demand for fuel wood has led to greater depletion of forest resources, worsening desertification, and erosion.
Also, the consumption level of petroleum products has been increasing rapidly. Adekunle A.O.
52
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) PUBLIC SECTOR SERVICES
Rapid pop. Growth exerts pressure on a no. of public sector services:
Only 40% of households have access to portable water; Electricity is in short supply as increasing demand is outstripping the rate of generation. Communication services have failed to keep pace with the rapid growth of the pop.
SAFETY AND SECURITY Rapid pop. growth is one of the factors that have contributed to increasing volume of crime in Nigeria. Adekunle A.O.
53
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES
In 1988, the Government of Fed. Rep. of Nigeria adopted the “National Policy on Pop. For Development, Unity and Self-Reliance.”
The policy was designed to:
Improve the standards of living and quality of life Promote maternal and child health Achieve a lower pop. growth rate Address issues of internal migration and population distribution.
In part, because of protracted instability and poor governance, limited progress was made in implementing the policy. Adekunle A.O.
54
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES
In 2004, the govt. decided to revise the National Policy on Population.
The new one is titled “National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development.”
The aim is to ensure that the policy contributes to long-term sustainable development in Nigeria and provides a basis for more effective population and development management.
The policy addresses the relationship between population, social and economic development and environment. Adekunle A.O.
55
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES (Contd.)
The policy also addresses related issues of:
Poverty, literacy, repro. health and rights,including maternal health, family planning, adolescent repro. health, HIV/AIDS, and STIs Involvement of men in reproduction; Women empowerment and gender equity and equality, and special needs of the girl-child; Importance of data collection, dissemination and use; Critical management issues, including advocacy, behavioural change communication (BCC) strategies.
The entire policy is based on the respect for rights of couples and individuals. Adekunle A.O.
56
Conclusion
In the past three decades, Nigeria has made very bold efforts to achieve rapid economic development.
However, amongst other factors, rapid population growth has affected the quality of life and made achievement of socioeconomic development goals difficult.
The new population policy is about improving the quality of life and achieving sustainable development. Adekunle A.O.
57
Conclusion
This means that the complex interrelationships between population, resources, the environment, and social and economic development, need to be recognized and taken into account in our national vision.
Adekunle A.O.
58
1
NIGERIA’S POPULATION DYNAMICS AND NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT SESSION OBJECTIVES
Define Population Dynamics;
Discuss the various indices used in measuring population growth;
Present Nigeria’s Demographic Profile
List the relevant Social and Economic Indicators for Nigeria;
Highlight the findings of the 2003 National Demographic Health Survey (NDHS);
Discuss the consequences and the implications of rapid population growth for national 2 development. Adekunle A.O.
POPULATION DYNAMICS
Population Dynamics is the study of the size, composition, and growth of populations.
MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH The size of a population and its pattern of growth depend on the balance between: Birth Deaths, and Migration Adekunle A.O.
3
MEASURING POPULATION GROWTH Population Size
Births
+
Deaths
Migration
Either to an increase if there is migration or to a decrease if there is emigration.
These factors can be measured by a number of simple rates: Adekunle A.O.
4
CRUDE BIRTH RATE
The contribution of births to population growth is measured by the Crude Birth Rate (CBR): Births Per Year x 1,000 = Births per Total Population pop. per year (mid year)
It is expressed as a rate per thousand population. Adekunle A.O.
5
CRUDE DEATH RATE (CDR)
The contribution of births to population growth is measured by the Crude Death Rate: Deaths Per Year Total Population (mid year)
x 1,000 = Deaths per pop. per year
i.e., the number of deaths per year divided by the total population in that year. It is expressed as a rate per thousand population.
Adekunle A.O.
6
CRUDE RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE
The rate of growth due to excess of births over deaths can be measured by the CRUDE RATE OF NATURAL INCREASE, i.e.: Crude Birth Rate (CBR) minus Crude Death Rate (CDR)
Adekunle A.O.
7
NET MIGRATION RATE (NMR)
The effects of migration are measured as the NET MIGRATION RATE:
Number of – Number of Immigrants Emigrants X 1,000 Total Population (mid year)
= Net migration /1,000 pop. per year Depending on the balance between immigration and emigration, the net migration rate may be positive or negative. Adekunle A.O.
8
CRUDE RATE OF POPULATION INCREASE
The crude rate of population increase summarizes the combined effects of births, deaths, and emigration, and is simply:
Crude Birth - Crude Death + Net Migration Rate (CBR) Rate (CDR) Rate
These rates are called CRUDE because they do not relate the events (births, deaths or migration) to the true population at risk, e.g. Adekunle A.O.
9
“Crude Rates”
Births can only occur to women of reproductive age, but the crude birth rate relates the number of births to the total population, which includes children, the elderly, and men, as well as women of reproductive age.
The majority of deaths in a population may occur among infants and children in developing countries, but the crude death rate relates the number of deaths to the total population. Adekunle A.O.
10
Significance of the “Crude Rates”
Despite the facts that these rates are crude, they provide useful demographic information, particularly with respect to the rate of population growth, e.g.:
If the crude rate of population increase is 1% per year, the population will double in approximately 69 years;
If the crude rate of population increase is even higher, say 3 per cent per year, the population will double in approximately 23 years (69 divided by 3). Adekunle A.O.
11
VITAL STATISTICS
Vital Statistics are records of certain vital events, e.g. births, deaths, marriages, etc.
Sources of health statistics include:
Notification of diseases
Institutional records
Epidemiological surveys,
Demographic surveys, e.g., NDHS, Fertility Surveys,
Data collected for determination of population Census Data collected for other purposes, e.g., school health, utilization of medical services, insurance.
Adekunle A.O.
12
SPECIFIC RATES
INFANT MORTALITY RATE: No. of deaths in infants (<1 yr) x 1,000 No.of live births during the year
NEONATAL MORTALITY RATE No. of deaths in infants (<1/12 yr) x 1,000 No.of live births during the year
STILLBIRTH RATE: No. of fetal deaths after 28/52 pregnancy x 1,000 No. births during the year Adekunle A.O.
13
SPECIFIC RATES (Contd.)
PERINATAL MORTALITY RATE
No. of stillbirth & deaths in infants (≤ 1/12 yr) x 1,000 No. births during the year
MATERNAL MORTALITY RATE: No. Maternal deaths due pregnancy x 100,000 No. births during the year
FERTILITY RATE No. Births in a year x 1,000 No. of women between 15 - 49 Adekunle A.O.
14
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE
Land Area (sq km)
285,912 140,600
Total Population
88,500,000
Estimated (2003)
126,000,000
Arable land Forest Land
923,768
Crude Population
96
(Density/sq m) (Varies from 27 persons/sq km in Taraba State cf 1,712 persons in Lagos State
Critical Population
310
(Density/sq km of Arable land)
Rural/Urban Ratio
69/39 Adekunle A.O.
15
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
AGE STRUCTURE
Nigeria has a young population compared to more advanced countries
< 1 year = 4.4
< 4 years = 18.0
< 14 years = 25.6
15–64 years = 49.6
> 65 years = 2.4
NIGERIA 1999 80 + 7575-79 7070-74 6565-69 6060-64 5555-59 5050-54 4545-49 4040-44 3535-39 3030-34 2525-29 2020-24 1515-19 1010-14 5-9 0-4 -2 0 -2 0
Male
-1 5 -1 5
-1 0 -1 0
-5
20 15 10 5 -5
UNITED KINGDOM 2000
Female
0
0 0
5
5 5
1 0 1 0
1 5 15
2 0 2 0
10 15 20
Percent of population
Adekunle A.O.
80 + 7575-79 7070-74 6565-69 6060-64 5555-59 5050-54 4545-49 4040-44 3535-39 3030-34 2525-29 2020-24 1515-19 1010-14 5-9 0-4
Male
-2 0-2 0
- 1- 51 5
- 1- 01 0
Female Female
-5 -5
20 15 10 5
00
0
5 5
5
1 01 0
1 51 5
2 02 0
10 15 20
Percent of population
16
Peculiarities of Distribution Pattern
High Dependency Ratio = 101.6%
Median Age = 15.8 years
About 44% of the population below 15 years; Consequently, the country has a high depency ratio of 89 dependants to 100 persons in the productive ages of 15 – 64. This contrasts with 2 or 3 productive adults for each child in the developed world.
Lower productivity. Adekunle A.O.
17
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
Crude Birth Rate (per 1,000 persons) Crude Death Rate (per 1,000 persons) Annual Population Growth Rate (%) 2.7 Population Doubling Time (years) Life Expectancy (years) Total Fertility Rate MORTALITY RATES Infant Mortality Rate/1,000 live births Childhood Mortality Rate/1,000 births Maternal Mortality Rate/100,000 live births Adekunle A.O.
39 14
23 54 5.2
105 178 800 18
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.) EDUCATION INDICATORS(%) Literacy level
52
Male Female Primary School Enrollment
44 44 65
HEALTH INDICATORS
Access to Health Service (%) Less than 6 km 6-15 km Rural Women >15 km No facility known Adekunle A.O.
54 12 32 2 19
NIGERIA’S DEMOGRAPHIC PROFILE (Contd.)
HEALTH INDICATORS (contd.) Access to portable water 17% Access to basic sanitation 20% Access to Electric Power Supply 47%
LABOUR STRUCTURE (%) Agriculture Industry Commerce Others Adekunle A.O.
70 10 15 5 20
Nigeria Demographic and Health Survey (NDHS)
The NDHS is a nationally representative survey of women aged 15-49.
All states in the Federal Republic of Nigeria are usually covered by the survey;
The aim is to gather reliable statistics on the demographic structure of the population and health practices nationwide.
Surveys had been conducted in 1990, 1993, 1999 and recently in 2003. Adekunle A.O.
21
Fertility, Proximate Determinants and Fertility Preferences Key Findings
Fertility rate is 5.7 children per woman.
Fertility varies considerably by region with lower rates in the south than in the north.
One in four women start having children before age 20. Rural women are most likely to be teenage mothers.
Men and women continue to want large families. Adekunle A.O.
22
Fertility Rate in Nigeria compared to other African countries
Adekunle A.O.
23
Nigeria’s Fertility Trends
Adekunle A.O.
24
Variation in Fertility Rates by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
25
Variation in Fertility Rates by Education
Adekunle A.O.
26
BIRTH INTERVALS
In addition to their impact on fertility, birth intervals may affect the health of mothers and their children: Short birth intervals (less than 24 months) are associated with small birth size and low birth weight and lead to poor health status in early childhood. Mothers whose births are separated by short intervals have less time to recuperate from previous pregnancies and deliveries. This leads to an increased risk of anemia.
One in 4 women between the ages of 15-19 is already a mother or pregnant with her first child. Adekunle A.O.
27
LENGTH OF BIRTH INTERVALS
Adekunle A.O.
28
Age at First Marriage and First Sexual Intercourse
Adekunle A.O.
29
IDEAL FAMILY SIZE
The ideal number of children differs between men and women. Married men want 10.6 children Married women want 7.3 children
The mean ideal family size among all varies by residence. Urban women want 6.0 children Rural women want 7.0 children Women in the North West want 8.6 children Women in the South West want 4.8 children Adekunle A.O.
30
VARIATION IN IDEAL FAMILY SIZE BY EDUCATION
Adekunle A.O.
31
MATERNAL HEALTH
60% of women received antenatal care at least once from a trained health care provider;
Two-thirds of the births occur at home;
17% of women have NO ASSISTANCE during delivery and 26% are assisted by untrained persons.
Rural women have much less access to care during pregnancy and delivery. Adekunle A.O.
32
ASSISTANCE DURING DELIVERY
Adekunle A.O.
33
SUMMARY OF FERTILITY TRENDS IN NIGERIA
Fertility rate is declining, but very slowly.
Fertility varies considerably by region: programs need to be zone-specific.
Rural and less advantaged women are more likely to become young mothers.
Actual fertility is higher than wanted fertility. Adekunle A.O.
34
INFANT AND CHILD MORTALITY
Infant mortality: there are 100 infant deaths for every 1000 live births;
Child Mortality: there are 201 children who will die by the age of 5 for every 1000 born. Adekunle A.O.
35
CHILDHOOD MORTALITY LEVELS IN NIGERIA
Adekunle A.O.
36
INFANT MORTALITY IN NIGERIA ACCORDING TO REGIONS
Adekunle A.O.
37
INFANT MORTALITY RATES IN AFRICA
Adekunle A.O.
38
Maternal Factors Associated with High Risks of Child Mortality
Adekunle A.O.
39
Maternal Factors Associated with High Risks of Child Mortality
According to the NDHS, 64% of births in Nigeria are classified as high risk births.
High risk births include having a child: –Too young - before 18 years of age –Too old - after 34 years of age –Too close together – less than 24 months apart –Too many – birth order 4 and above
Adekunle A.O.
40
FAMILY PLANNING IN NIGERIA: KEY FINDINGS FROM 2003 NDHS
Only 13% of married women use any method of family planning.
Although three-quarters of women know of at least one method of modern family planning, only 8 percent of currently married women are using one.
Contraceptive knowledge and use vary significantly by region.
There are many missed opportunities for increasing family planning acceptance and use.
Seventeen (17) percent of currently married women have an unmet need for family planning. Adekunle A.O.
41
Contraceptive Knowledge by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
42
Use of Modern Contraception in Nigeria by Zones
Adekunle A.O.
43
Use of modern methods in Nigeria compared to other countries
Adekunle A.O.
44
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT
Nigeria is the most populous country in Africa and is among the ten most populous countries in the world;
While population is a natural resource, if its growth is not properly managed, it could be one of the constraints to the efforts of govt. to fulfill its commitment to improve the quality of life and living standards.
High fertility over a long period of time has resulted in a population with a large no. of young persons. Adekunle A.O.
45
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.)
Thus, Nigeria has a powerful momentum for population growth built into its age structure. If the present high rate of pop. Growth continues, Nigeria will double its population in 24 years. This means Nigeria will have 118 million more people in the country in 2025 than in 2001! This means that Nigeria will have to double its entire infrastructure to maintain today's low standard of living.
Adekunle A.O.
46
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) EDUCATION With the continued rapid growth, both the no. of school-age children and school enrolments will increase phenomenally.
This will result in: Worsening pupil/teacher ratio Overcrowded classrooms Shortage of educational materials Need for greater funding in education. Adekunle A.O.
47
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) HEALTH AND NUTRITION
As the population expands rapidly, it will become more and more difficult to provide sufficient personnel, facilities and financial resources to maintain and improve health services and living standards.
Also,rapid increase in the no. of children under five years of age and women in their child bearing years (the groups with the greatest health care needs) will result in increase pressure on the health system. Adekunle A.O.
48
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) URBANIZATION
Rapid pop.growth has led to an increase in the level of urbanization; estimated at 3.7% per annum.
At present, most urban residents live in squalid and congested environmental conditions:
Poverty is widespread and underemployment and unemployment are high;
There is lack of access to adequate health services, portable water, good roads and electricity;
Crime rates are high, and residents lack security with regards to their lives and property. Adekunle A.O.
49
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) HOUSING
Housing is one of the basic necessities of life.
Rapid rate of growth of both the urban and rural populations and inadequate funding has made it extremely difficult to provide sufficient housing for an ever-increasing population. LABOUR FORCE AND EMPLOYMENT
Rapid population growth places extraordinary demands on the ability of the economy to provide jobs for all new entrants to the labour force. Adekunle A.O.
50
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) PER CAPITA
The standard of living of most Nigerians declined during the 1980s and did not improve during the decade of the 1990s.
Continued rapid population growth will make it difficult for Nigeria to make real gains in raising GPD per capita. AGRICULTURE AND FOOD SECURITY
The sector will need to double food production over the next 24 years to maintain today’s low nutritional standards. Adekunle A.O.
51
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.)
ENVIRONMENT Rapid population growth has led to continued degradation of the ecosystem:
In urban areas: pollution, accumulation of solid and liquid wastes, spread of shanty towns. In rural: over cultivation, deforestation, etc;
ENERGY RESOURCES
Increased demand for fuel wood has led to greater depletion of forest resources, worsening desertification, and erosion.
Also, the consumption level of petroleum products has been increasing rapidly. Adekunle A.O.
52
CONSEQUENCES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT (Contd.) PUBLIC SECTOR SERVICES
Rapid pop. Growth exerts pressure on a no. of public sector services:
Only 40% of households have access to portable water; Electricity is in short supply as increasing demand is outstripping the rate of generation. Communication services have failed to keep pace with the rapid growth of the pop.
SAFETY AND SECURITY Rapid pop. growth is one of the factors that have contributed to increasing volume of crime in Nigeria. Adekunle A.O.
53
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES
In 1988, the Government of Fed. Rep. of Nigeria adopted the “National Policy on Pop. For Development, Unity and Self-Reliance.”
The policy was designed to:
Improve the standards of living and quality of life Promote maternal and child health Achieve a lower pop. growth rate Address issues of internal migration and population distribution.
In part, because of protracted instability and poor governance, limited progress was made in implementing the policy. Adekunle A.O.
54
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES
In 2004, the govt. decided to revise the National Policy on Population.
The new one is titled “National Policy on Population for Sustainable Development.”
The aim is to ensure that the policy contributes to long-term sustainable development in Nigeria and provides a basis for more effective population and development management.
The policy addresses the relationship between population, social and economic development and environment. Adekunle A.O.
55
STEPS TAKEN TO ADDRESS THE ISSUES (Contd.)
The policy also addresses related issues of:
Poverty, literacy, repro. health and rights,including maternal health, family planning, adolescent repro. health, HIV/AIDS, and STIs Involvement of men in reproduction; Women empowerment and gender equity and equality, and special needs of the girl-child; Importance of data collection, dissemination and use; Critical management issues, including advocacy, behavioural change communication (BCC) strategies.
The entire policy is based on the respect for rights of couples and individuals. Adekunle A.O.
56
Conclusion
In the past three decades, Nigeria has made very bold efforts to achieve rapid economic development.
However, amongst other factors, rapid population growth has affected the quality of life and made achievement of socioeconomic development goals difficult.
The new population policy is about improving the quality of life and achieving sustainable development. Adekunle A.O.
57
Conclusion
This means that the complex interrelationships between population, resources, the environment, and social and economic development, need to be recognized and taken into account in our national vision.
Adekunle A.O.
58
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