Newspapers And The Future Of Media

Issue 2, 2009

Lies damned lies and statistics

Print media RIP? The future of print and what it means for brands “There will be no media consumption left in 10 years that is not delivered over an IP network. There will be no newspapers, no magazines that are delivered in paper form. Everything gets delivered in an electronic form. “   Steve Ballmer, Microsoft CEO, quoted in the Washington Post, June 2008 In this second issue of ‘Lies, damned lies and statistics’, we’ve looked at a single theme:  The future of print media, what it means for you, and which media outlets are the most effective when it comes to communicating brand messages.

For further information, Dirk Singer

lorem ipsum dolor met set quam nunc parum [email protected] / Twitter - @dirkthecow

2009

by falling ad revenues, we think that television has a brighter future, as it can embrace the Internet better – just think of the occasions where you might have had your laptop open while watching TV.

If we look at how things stand today, the Internet has

Summary “All the endless obituaries I've r ead about t he deat h of

neither will the Internet kill off

overtaken newspapers as a

print.  However, we do think

primary news source.  

that the newspaper landscape

newspapers struc k me as

is shifting beyond recognition.

As a result, broadly speaking,

rather ludicrous - or, at the

Looking at ad revenues and

when it comes to essential and

least, extremely premature.

circulations, print media overall

trusted news sources, visual

Until those of us who came of

is on a downward trajectory.   

and interactive media – Web

age before the Internet all die off, there will be a market for print versions of newspapers.”

(Arianna Huffington)

and TV – come top, followed In the future, print media will

by static media – print papers

be leaner when it comes to

and analogue radio.

circulations, more specialised The first thing to say is that we’re not of the “newspapers RIP” school of thought.  Or at least not completely.

when it comes to audiences and having to embrace a hybrid future where it actively offers content on the Web and interacts with online audiences.  

Unlike Steve Ballmer, we think that just as TV didn’t kill radio,

Despite the fact that it’s also hit

40,000

Print

Web

30,000

20,000

10,000

0

Guardian Telegraph

Mail

Sun

Times

Independent

Mirror

The reach of UK national newspapers in thousands, ABCe figures January 2009

when thinking about how to use

Newspapers are more

its content, setting up the web-

popular than ever

based Telegraph TV in early

Despite all the talk of the

2008 featuring the likes of

difficulties print media has been

Anne Widdicombe and Lloyd

facing, newspapers are actually

Grossman.

more popular than they’ve ever been.   

Meanwhile, in the US, Nielsen figures showed that the online

The reason is of course the

audience for newspapers grew

Internet.

by 12% over the past year, even as their print editions ran

In January, The Guardian online was attracting almost 30 million unique users, at the same time as the print edition had an ABC circulation figure of 358,000, minus 5% year on year. Lately the Guardian has been using its online operations to become a global news source, with greater investment in its US business.   

into difficulties.

!

The New York Times and Similarly, despite the ageing

soon The Guardian, have also

demographic of its print

started to engage the

audience, the Daily Telegraph

upmarket, educated iPhone /

has a print circulation of

iPod t ouc h audience by

842,000 and a web reach of

releasing an application via

26 million.

Apple’s iTunes store that allows the newspaper to be read via

The Daily Telegraph has also had a progressive attitude

Apple’s smart phone.  

Despite this, the future is uncertain At the same time, there is a question mark on

recording a drop, the biggest threat to newspapers is the decline in ad revenues. According to Enders Analysis, UK newspaper revenues are projected to drop

whether the Internet can in

by 21%, compared to a 10%

the long-term bail out a lot

drop when it comes to TV.

of newspapers.

Meanwhile in the US, eMarketer

Writing on Australian

predicts that from 2005-2012

marketing website

there will be seven straight years

‘Mumbrella’, journalism

of ad revenue decline, totalling

professor Stephen Quinn, put the challenge into

42.5%.

perspective by pointing

And Classifieds are vanishing as

out that even The New

a newspaper revenue stream.

York Times would only be able to fund a fifth of its current newsgathering budget with what it makes from web-based advertising.

In his Mumbrella article, Professor Quinn cites the fact that in 2000, classifieds accounted for 40% of US newspaper

In fact, while the February ABC circulation figures showed every UK national newspaper except the Daily Star (which cut its cover price to 20p)

profits. Now they account for 23%. This is thanks to classifieds sites such as Craiglist and Gumtree – which in many cases allow people to post for free.

“Newspapers were a nice business. Publishers could make the product insanely cheap (remember the penny press), and the advertising would cover the expenses, plus generate fantastic profits. “However, this is clearly over. It’s done. It worked for a long time, but now, like trans-Atlantic leisure travel in big passenger ships, it will never work again.” (Online journalism lecturer, Mindy McAdams)

Print media is no longer seen as essential

a score of 1-10)

“The thing that worries me most at the moment

newspapers. 35% said they highly trusted TV,

about the condition of journalism is, frankly, who’s going to pay for the journalists and the journalism in 10 years’ time? My kids wouldn’t

while 45% trusted

dream of buying a newspaper — and we are a

newspaper read is no longer

friends, which beat

newspaper household.”

as essential as it once used to

online news into

be. In fact, fewer and fewer

second place with

consumers see print

40%.

The reality is, the daily

newspapers as a prime source of news.

BBC Presenter and former newspaper editor, Andrew Marr

However, what’s important is that this definition of online

At the end of 2008, TNS released its global ‘Digital Worlds / Digital Lives’ study. Out of all countries

news does not include blogs, which had a high trust rating of only 6% in the UK. This links into the trend we’ve just mentioned: Thanks

surveyed, the UK had the

to their online editions,

lowest amount of trust for

newspapers are reaching more

newspapers, with 23% saying they ‘highly trusted’ (an 8+ on

people than ever – just not in print.

Meanwhile in the US, a Pew Research Study said that 70% of Americans see TV as an important news source (down from 82% in 2002), 40% see the Internet as an important news source (up from 14% in 2002), while only 35% say the same about newspapers (down from 50% in 2003).

High trust’

UK

Global

Friends

45%

42%

TV

35%

41%

Online News

40%

40%

Newspapers

23%

39%

Blogs

6%

10%

Regional papers have particular difficulties “Recently, Paul Potts, the chief executive of the Press Association, Britain’s biggest news agency, told me that judges had complained to him that important trials were going unreported because newspapers had cut back on the number of journalists.” Ex-editor Kelvin MacKenzie, The Sun 12 March 2009 essential reading in the same way that the online There is evidence that unlike the nationals,

editions of the nationals have. In fact, in the US,

regional newspapers are not that successful in

a study by Northwestern University showed that

making the transition online.

62% of consumers have never visited their local

In December UK

blogger Martin Belam found out that no regional

newspaper website.

newspaper had more than 127 Google Reader subscribers.

According to Enders Analysis (Financial Times 12 March), local newspapers will see an ad drop of

Google Reader is only one of several ways to

48% from 2007-2012. Newsquest, the owner of

subscribe to online ‘RSS’ (live) feeds, but to put

a number of UK regional papers, reported

this into its proper context: In December The

property advertising down 58% in the last quarter

Guardian had 118,000 Google Reader

of 2008.

subscribers with a print circulation of 349,000, or a ratio of 2:9 to 1.

And despite that, as Kelvin MacKenzie said in his Sun piece, they perform a vital public service,

By comparison, the ‘best’ performing UK regional

local papers might only be missed once they are

in Google Reader subscribers was the Eastern

gone.

Daily Press (Norwich) with 127 subscribers, and a print circulation of 63,508….a ratio of 500:1.

According to the Pew Research Center in the US, only 33% of consumers would miss their local

That shows that though web visits to regional newspapers may be high, they haven’t become

paper a lot if it closed.

The importance of word of mouth and personalisation

At the same time, in the US AdAge published a

In fact, thanks to the advent of social media,

more traffic to certain key websites than Google

word of mouth is becoming more important when

survey showing that Facebook, which is rapidly becoming the Google of social networks, drives itself, despite having a third of its traffic.

it comes to spreading news. Meanwhile according to Hitwise, the microWe’ve already mentioned the TNS Digital study, which showed that in the UK friends are the most trusted source of news.

blogging platform Twitter overtook UK newspapers in terms of online reach in March.

"Imagine that you walked into a 400-year old market where the clerks hand you and every other customer an identical bag containing exactly the same mix of some 50 items and they tell you it contains what the supermarket's manager thought you and everyone else should or would like to eat. Despite its venerable history, would you shop at this market again?" (Online journalism pundit Vin Crosbie)

"Not all readers demand such quality, but the educated, opinion-leading, news-junkie core of the audience always will. They will insist on it as a defense against "persuasive communication," the euphemism for advertising, public relations and spin that exploits the confusion of information overload. “Readers need and want to be equipped with truth-based defenses.” Philip Meyer, author of The Vanishing Newspaper: Saving Journalism in the Information Age

So what’s the future?

A hybrid world?

In 2004, Philip Meyer was in a sense ahead of his

Earlier we quoted political blogger and online

time when he wrote a book on “The Vanishing

publisher Arianna Huffington in mocking the

Newspaper.”

constant obituaries of newspapers.

Last year he published a follow-up essay where he said that the way forward for print journalism was

In a Guardian interview, Huffington saw

not to be all things to all people, but to appeal to a

convergence happening, with traditional

narrower group of consumers who value

newspapers like The Guardian taking on more of

investigative journalism and in-depth features of the

the persona normally associated with online news

type that online-media often can’t deliver.

outlets, and large online news outlets like The

Indeed, research from Deloitte, the business

Huffington Post doing the type of reporting that

advisory firm, showed that 73% of Brits admitted to

used to be the preserve of traditional papers.

enjoying reading printed magazines even though

We’d agree that talking about the death of

they know they could find most of the same

newspapers is premature. And this convergence

information online – and magazines are by their nature more specialised and niche than newspapers.

argument makes sense. In future there will be far fewer print media outlets.

The ones that exist will have successfully made the transition online, and the ones that still appear in print will appeal to a smaller audience willing to pay money for quality reporting – with quality rather than quantity being key.

What does this mean for

So if you are about to draw up your

you? Some conclusions

stats mean for you? We’ve drawn out

brand plans, what do all these facts and

five conclusions.

In Summary 1 - Online exposure isn’t second best Online news outperforms print on reach AND credibility. Also, think about all the times you forwarded on an online article vs kept and handed on a print article. 2 - TV is holding its own “TV usage is at an all-time high, and yet there's a lot more people using the Internet. Part of the answer is that it's happening simultaneously" (Nielsen) 3 - Make online integrated Rather than having it sit in an isolated ‘silo’, just as you wouldn’t do it for print, radio etc.

1 – Don’t look at online exposure as

than if reading a paper on the way to work.

second best. It’s

In fact, whatever your

not.

online. For example,

From experience we know that for a lot of marketers, that piece in print is perceived as being high value, while online

has that psychological trophy

according to the TNS ‘Digital Worlds’ study we’ve already quoted, UK housewives spend 47% of their free time online.

2 – Move TV to the top of the brand

But the facts speak for

queue

themselves: Online does better

Our recommendation for a

when it comes to reach and it

generic brand plan, would be

does better when it comes to

to place broadcast and online

influence.

joint first, and print second (with the caveat of specialised

And online coverage is by its

titles and magazines having

nature more viral.

more importance).

likely to check out a website, share something, or look for further info if already online,

That’s because, according to several studies, TV and Internet use often successfully ‘bleeds’ into each other. According to a Nielsen study in the US, “TV usage is at an all-time high,

value.

Think about it: You are more

5 - Publish your own content If every consumer is now a potential media publisher, so is every brand.

demographic, they will be

is second best. A great piece of print coverage seemingly

4 - Look at interactive over static media See the diagram on the previous page. Static media is there to inform, interactive to engage.

and yet there's a lot more people using the Internet. Part of the answer is that it's happening simultaneously." That’s mirrored by UK research carried out by video search engine Blinxx, which shows that 70% of Brits surf the Internet and watch TV at the same time. Again, they are much more likely to check out online anything that they see, and that makes broadcast exposure potentially very valuable.

Indeed, the most successful TV

endear them to their

shows, like the series Lost,

readers.

recognise that the Web isn’t canabilising their viewers, it’s a

Then there’s the possibility

place where they can extend

of moving from regional to

their brand.

local to grass-roots. To engage communities at

Meanwhile, Web only TV

neighbourhood level

shows (as opposed to YouTube

through gate-keepers such

style clips) have had

as clubs, networks and

questionable success.

associations.

As reported by AdAge, 64% of

For example, one such

web TV viewers drop off after

gatekeeper in the UK is the

the first episode and by episode

parish-pump, which

ten, there are not many viewers

syndicates editorial to 6000

left.

parish newsletters – the type of grass-roots media

It seems that though we’re happy to have our news via the Internet, we still want our TV from the box.

normally below the radar of most brand programmes. Then there is local radio. While commercial radio has also seen advertising revenues drop, its

P&G job-swappers at Google's New York office. 'Interactive isn't a group, it's everybody's job” David Bell, Google, quoted in the Wall Street Journal

3 – Regionally,

low cost, flexibility, and the

Online campaigns shouldn’t sit

look at websites,

growth in digital and Internet

in isolation, instead all the

radio, means that it is seen as a

media elements of your

communities

more ‘stable’ medium.

programme should join up the

As local print declines there’s

4 – Make online

have online elements treated

media an integral

plan as print.

some evidence that local websites will fill part of the void. Look at any locality in the UK, and there will be one or more bloggers writing about their community. No, they don’t have the resources of a newspaper, but they often have a quirky style and local knowledge that

dots. It makes as little sense to

part of your campaign "The worst answer you can hear from an agency is, 'Don't worry, we have a group to handle interactive,' said David Bell, a Google consultant, during a session with some

separately from the rest of the

As a result, ask how can offline and online content work together? With the emphasis on online content not being an added bonus, but very much part of the main event.

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5 – Finally - publish your own content It’s been said countless times that today anyone can be a media publisher. Anyone can write online content, anyone can upload a video, anyone can post pictures, anyone can start and take part in a conversation.

http://www.slideshare.net/ dirkthecow You’ll also find our presentation ‘justifying social media to internal clients’ on there, which serves as a companion to this one. We’d be happy to come in and present either to your brand teams. We can also create bespoke reports around your particular market, please contact Dirk Singer about this.

How to initiate and publish content online and to avoid

Creative commons

brand speak is the subject of our

With thanks to the following for use of the images (for each go to flickr.com/username) DRB62, Jasonmchuff, Canpac, KYZ, Ohglory, jojakeman, ehnmark, liberalmind, avlxyz, thomasroche, svadilfari, vidiot

next report.

However, in the meantime see our presentation, social media in the recession

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