Monthly Report Of Recent Economic And Financial Developments (december)
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Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments December 2008
(English translation prepared by the Bank's staff based on the Japanese original released on December 22, 2008)
Please contact the Bank of Japan at the address below in advance to request permission when reproducing or copying the content of this document for commercial purposes. Secretariat of the Policy Board, Bank of Japan P.O. Box 30, Nihonbashi, Tokyo 103-8660, Japan Please credit the source when quoting, reproducing, or copying the content of this document.
Monthly Report of Recent Economic and Financial Developments1 December 2008 Summary Japan's economic conditions have been deteriorating.
Exports have decreased.
Corporate profits have continued to decrease, and
business sentiment has also deteriorated. has declined.
In this situation, business fixed investment
Private consumption has weakened, as the employment and income
situation has become increasingly severe. flat.
Housing investment has been more or less
Public investment, meanwhile, has been sluggish.
Reflecting these
developments in demand both at home and abroad, production has decreased substantially.
Japan's economic conditions are likely to increase in severity for the immediate future.
Exports are expected to decrease substantially due to the further slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen.
Domestic private demand is
also likely to weaken further as corporate profits and firms' funding conditions deteriorate and the employment and income situation becomes increasingly severe. Public investment, meanwhile, is projected to be sluggish.
Reflecting these
developments in demand and adjustment pressures on inventories, production is expected to continue decreasing substantially.
On the price front, the three-month rate of decrease in domestic corporate goods prices has been large, mainly due to the drop in international commodity prices. The year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices (excluding fresh food) has moderated to around 2 percent, mainly due to the drop in the prices of petroleum products.
Looking at price developments for the time being, domestic corporate goods prices are likely to continue decreasing, mainly due to the drop in international 1
This report is based on data and information available at the time of the Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Meeting held on December 18 and 19, 2008.
1
commodity prices.
The year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices is expected
to moderate reflecting the declines in the prices of petroleum products and the stabilization of food prices.
In money markets, the weighted average of the overnight call rate has remained at around 0.3 percent.
While JGB repo market rates have declined
recently, interbank rates on term instruments have edged up, reflecting a seasonal increase in demand for funds over the year-end. Meanwhile, the yen has appreciated against the U.S. dollar and stock prices have risen compared with last month, whereas yields on long-term government bonds have fallen.
Financial conditions in Japan have deteriorated sharply on the whole: funding conditions in the CP and corporate bond markets have tightened; and an increasing number of firms, not only small but also large ones, have reported that their financial positions are weak and lending attitudes of financial institutions are severe.
The overnight call rate has been at a low level relative to the state of economic activity and price developments.
However, it seems that funding costs for firms
have recently edged up, as indicated by the wider credit spreads on CP and corporate bonds.
The amount outstanding of CP and corporate bonds issued has been below
the previous year's level, as investors continue to be selective in their purchase of CP and corporate bonds.
The amount outstanding of bank lending has increased, mainly
to large firms, reflecting firms' demand for covering the decline in the issuance of CP and corporate bonds and for securing more liquidity, although that to small firms has remained below the previous year's level.
Despite the increase in bank lending, an
increasing number of these firms, including large firms, have reported that their financial positions are weak and lending attitudes of financial institutions are severe. Meanwhile, the money stock has increased at a somewhat slower pace.
2
1. Economic Developments Public investment has been sluggish (Chart 5). On a GDP basis, real public investment has been essentially level (Chart 3). Looking at monthly indicators, both the amount of public construction completed—which reflects the progress of public works—and the value of public works contracted—a measure that reflects public orders—have been sluggish on average.
Public investment is projected to be sluggish due to tight national and local fiscal conditions.
Real exports have decreased (Charts 6[1] and 7).
On a quarter-on-quarter
basis, they dropped, by 3.3 percent, in the second quarter and then inched up temporarily, by 1.7 percent, in the third quarter, but dropped again, by 3.8 percent, in October compared with the third quarter.
By destination (Chart 7[1]), exports to the United States dropped substantially in the second and third quarters on a quarter-on-quarter basis, mainly due to the drop in automobiles; they also decreased in October compared with the third quarter. Exports to the EU and NIEs plunged in the second quarter followed by a temporary increase in the third quarter, and dropped significantly again in October. Exports to the ASEAN economies remained almost level in October following the second and third quarters.
Exports to China have started to level off, as they declined marginally
in October after having just inched up in the third quarter. The pace of increase in exports to other regions (such as the Middle East, Latin America, and Russia) has started to moderate on balance.
By goods (Chart 7[2]), the decline in exports of automobile-related goods as a whole has become more evident since exports to the United States have continued to drop and added to this, those to the EU have also turned downward.
Exports of
IT-related goods plunged in October, mainly to NIEs, after having increased in the second and third quarters.
Exports of consumer goods also dropped sharply in
October following the marginal decline in the third quarter. Exports of capital goods and parts and of intermediate goods have started to lose momentum on average.
3
Real imports have been more or less flat (Charts 6[1] and 9).
On a
quarter-on-quarter basis, they dropped considerably, by 3.2 percent, in the second quarter, but rose, by 2.9 percent, in the third quarter followed by an increase of 3.3 percent in October compared with the third quarter. raw
materials
and
foodstuffs—which
However, the upsurge mainly in
seems
to
be
a
temporary
phenomenon—contributed to this recent increase.
By goods (Chart 9[2]), imports of IT-related goods and consumer goods declined in the second quarter and then increased temporarily in the third quarter, but fell back again in October compared with the third quarter. Imports of capital goods and parts (excluding aircraft) declined in the third quarter but bounced back in October; on balance, however, they have started to lose momentum.
Imports of raw
materials, intermediate goods, and foodstuffs seem to have been more or less flat as a trend, despite the upsurge in October compared with the third quarter.
Net exports in terms of the real trade balance have decreased, reflecting the aforementioned movements in imports and exports (Chart 6[2]). A deficit in the nominal balance on goods and services was recorded in the third quarter, and has narrowed in October due to the improvement in the terms of trade mainly caused by the drop in crude oil prices.
Exports are expected to decrease significantly for the time being, due to the further slowdown in overseas economies and the appreciation of the yen.
As for the environment surrounding exports, in the United States, economic conditions have been deteriorating with ongoing adjustments in the housing market. With tighter financial conditions having exerted downward pressure on the U.S. economy, sales of automobiles—which have a large impact on Japan's exports—have declined substantially. In the EU, economic conditions have also been deteriorating, mainly affected by tighter lending stances of financial institutions.
In emerging
economies and countries that export natural resources, economic activity has been on a slower trend, due to the slowdown in exports in response to the deteriorating U.S. and European economic conditions and to the deterioration in the financial environment caused mainly by the outflow of funds (Chart 8[2]). This slowdown in 4
overseas economies is expected to become more evident in the immediate future.2 With the U.S. and European financial markets having been under increased stress and the employment and income situation having deteriorated, attention should be paid to the downside risks to overseas economies.
Regarding the environment surrounding
exports of IT-related goods, global demand for finished products has slowed its pace of increase as a whole, and year-end demand also seems to lack vigor overall. International market prices for semiconductors have continued to decrease, partly due to strong pressure from the increase of supply.
Meanwhile, in the foreign exchange
market, the yen has appreciated lately mainly against European and NIEs currencies in terms of the real effective exchange rate, which incorporates differentials in the inflation rates between home and abroad (Chart 8[1]).
Imports are expected to remain more or less flat for the time being, mainly because the domestic economy will continue to deteriorate, despite positive contributions from the yen's appreciation.
Business fixed investment has declined.
On a GDP basis, real business fixed
investment decreased markedly in the third quarter following the second quarter (Chart 3).
Based on the Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by
Industry, Quarterly, business fixed investment in nominal terms has fallen for four consecutive quarters since the fourth quarter of last year (Chart 10). By industry (Chart 11), as for nonmanufacturing firms, investment by the leasing industry plunged due to changes in the accounting standards for finance lease transactions,3
2
Looking at the DI of overseas supply and demand conditions for products in the December Tankan, the net "excess supply" has expanded rapidly, and is projected to become even larger (large manufacturing firms: -6% points in the September survey, -28% points in the December survey, and -34% points for the forecast). 3
Most leased property in finance lease transactions had been booked as fixed assets (business fixed investment) on the lessor's side (leasing companies) and treated off the balance sheet on the lessee's side (firms). However, with the new accounting standard for lease transactions which has been applied from the business year starting on April 1, 2008, leased property is booked as liquid assets on the lessor's side and it is booked as fixed assets on the lessee's side. Since the difference is on which side business fixed investment is counted, the aggregate amount of business fixed investment will basically be unaffected, but there are effects of special exemptions. That is, in cases in which the lessee is a small firm or in which the price of the leased property is low, lessees do not have to change their accounting procedures. Therefore, as a whole, only the negative impact of leasing companies remains. The fact that the timing of change in the accounting procedure is not the same for all firms has also affected the aggregates.
5
and that by other industries has also started to weaken.
Investment by
manufacturing firms, including that by large firms which had been increasing, decreased in the third quarter.
Looking at monthly indicators, the aggregate
supply of capital goods (both including and excluding transport equipment)—a coincident indicator of machinery investment—has continued to decrease (Chart 12[1]).
Machinery orders (private demand, excluding orders of shipbuilding and
orders from electric power companies)—a leading indicator of machinery investment—dropped significantly in October following the third quarter (Chart 13[1]).
Construction starts (floor area, private, nondwelling use)—a leading
indicator of construction investment—remained flat in the third quarter, partly because large construction starts were included, and then registered a noticeable drop in October compared with the third quarter (Chart 13[2]).
Looking at the environment surrounding business fixed investment, corporate profits have continued to decrease and business sentiment has deteriorated. According to business plans in the December Tankan (all industries and enterprises), current profits for fiscal 2008 are projected to drop for the second straight year (a year-on-year decline of 19.1 percent). By size (Chart 14), profit projections among large firms have been revised substantially downward from the previous survey, resulting in a decline of about 20 percent.
It is also projected that profits of small
firms will decline for the second consecutive year and the rate of decline will expand significantly.
In these circumstances, the December Tankan shows that the
deterioration in business sentiment has become evident, since the business sentiment DI of small firms has marked a larger net "unfavorable" and the DI of large firms has turned to a large net "unfavorable" (Chart 15).
Business fixed investment is likely to decline significantly for the time being, mainly due to the further slowdown in overseas economies and the ongoing decrease in corporate profits as well as to the deterioration in firms' funding conditions. According to business fixed investment plans in the December Tankan (Chart 16), those of large firms, mainly manufacturing, for fiscal 2008 have been revised considerably downward in comparison to the September survey, resulting in a year-on-year decrease of 0.2 percent, a downturn albeit marginal.
6
Those of small
firms for fiscal 2008 were revised only marginally upward; they marked a sharp decline of 11.6 percent on a year-on-year basis.4
Private consumption has weakened, as the employment and income situation has become increasingly severe. On a GDP basis, real private consumption rose, by 0.3 percent, in the third quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis, although this was partly in reaction to the drop (of 0.7 percent) in the second quarter (Chart 3). Looking at individual indicators on consumption (Charts 17 and 18), sales at department stores and supermarkets have continued to be relatively weak, since consumers have further curtailed their purchases.
Meanwhile, sales at convenience stores have been
relatively strong as a trend, assisted mainly by the special factor of cigarettes,5 albeit with fluctuations caused by weather factors. Sales of household electrical appliances dropped compared with the previous month in both September and October for two months in a row, partly because the effects of the heat wave (such as air conditioners and refrigerators) and demand associated with the Beijing Olympics (such as flat panel TVs) disappeared.
The drop in the number of new passenger-car registrations
has become even larger lately.
As for services consumption, outlays for travel have
continued to be weak, mainly in overseas travel, in light of persistently high fuel surcharges added to airfares.
Sales in the food service industry have continued to
level off on average, albeit with fluctuations caused mainly by weather factors.
The Indices of Aggregated Sales (in real terms)—which are comprised of major sales indicators of goods and services mentioned above6—have started to
4
Meanwhile, software investment as a whole is projected to be around the same level as the previous year, since investment by small firms registered a year-on-year increase, whereas that by large firms was revised substantially downward and marked a year-on-year decline. Based on "software and fixed investment excluding land purchasing expenses," a concept similar to GDP, business fixed investment of all industries and enterprises (including financial institutions) for fiscal 2008 is projected to mark an increase of 0.1 percent on a year-on-year basis. 5
From July 1, 2008, the attachment of age-verifying equipment to cigarette vending machines has become mandatory. Currently, most vending machines throughout the country require IC cards for verification. These IC cards, however, are not yet in widespread use, and this has likely attributed to the rise in cigarettes sold over the counter, since this IC card is not required for over-the-counter sales.
6
The Indices of Aggregated Sales are the weighted average of individual sales indicators. Outlays for travel in October were not released at the time these indices were compiled, and hence were incorporated into the indices under the assumption that the seasonally adjusted figures for October were at the same level as those for September.
7
become noticeably weak lately (Chart 19[1]). The aggregate supply of consumer goods—which comprehensively captures producers' supply of goods—has recently been decreasing due to the drop in durable goods (Chart 19[2]). Looking at statistics on the demand side, as for the index of consumption expenditure level (in real terms) in the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, the index on an "excluding housing, automobiles, money gifts and remittance" basis—which is mostly limited to items used for estimating the GDP—decreased in the second and third quarters and continued to decrease in October compared with the third quarter.
Total expenditure
in the Survey of Household Economy (in real terms) also decreased in October compared with the third quarter following the second and third quarters (Chart 17[1]).7
Consumer sentiment has deteriorated mainly due to the drop in stock prices and growing employment uncertainty; related indicators have been around their previous bottoms or below these levels (Chart 20).
Private consumption is likely to continue weakening, as the employment and income situation becomes increasingly severe for the time being.
Housing investment has been more or less flat. On a GDP basis, real housing investment increased, by 3.9 percent, in the third quarter on a quarter-on-quarter basis aided by the lagged contributions from the pickup in housing starts in the second half of fiscal 2007, after having dropped, by 2.6 percent, in the second quarter (Chart 3).
The number of housing starts (Chart 21[1])—a leading indicator
of housing investment—had been more or less flat since the beginning of this year, but dropped in October.
Looking ahead, housing investment is expected to be flat or weaken somewhat for the time being, considering the number of housing starts.
Industrial production has decreased substantially.
Production registered a
decline of around 1 percent on a quarter-on-quarter basis for three consecutive 7
In the Family Income and Expenditure Survey, the number of samples is about 8,000 households, while that of the Survey of Household Economy is about 30,000.
8
quarters, and then dropped sharply, by 3.6 percent, in October compared with the third quarter (Chart 22).
As for developments in October compared with the third quarter
by industry, production of many industries continued to decrease following the third quarter; the drop was especially large in industries such as transportation equipment (excluding ships and rolling stocks), electronic parts and devices, general machinery, and chemicals.
Shipments also decreased substantially, by 4.0 percent, in October compared with the third quarter, after having declined for three quarters in a row.
By goods
(Chart 23), shipments of capital goods have fallen in many items such as semiconductor products machinery, and also engineering and construction machinery, and metal cutting machinery.
The decline in shipments of durable consumer goods
has recently become significant, notably in automobiles. consumer goods have been more or less flat.
Those of nondurable
Shipments of construction goods
stopped declining temporarily as the effects of the revised Building Standard Law waned, but they have decreased again lately.
Meanwhile, as for shipments of
producer goods, along with the drop in electronic parts and devices, that in chemicals, nonferrous metals, and iron and steel has become evident.
Inventories have risen noticeably, while shipments have decreased substantially; the shipment-inventory balance has deteriorated (Chart 24). By goods, as for capital goods (excluding transport equipment) and durable consumer goods, inventory adjustment pressures have been building up, while shipments have declined at an accelerated pace. As for producer goods, shipments of electronic parts and devices as well as those of other goods (such as chemicals, nonferrous metals, and iron and steel) have fallen sharply, and inventories of these goods have piled up. Meanwhile, as for construction goods, both shipments and inventories have continued to decrease even though inventories are still in balance with shipments.
This shows
that the deterioration in the shipment-inventory balance has spread widely across industries, and this will contribute to pressing production downward for the time being.
As for the outlook for the time being, production is expected to continue decreasing substantially, since the weakness in domestic and external demand has 9
become evident and also since inventory adjustment pressures have mounted. Anecdotal information suggests that production in the fourth quarter will drop sharply.8
The employment and income situation has become increasingly severe (Chart 25[3]).
In the labor market, overtime hours worked have recently been well below the year-ago level, notably in the manufacturing sector (Chart 27[3]).
The employment
conditions DI in the December Tankan turned to a net "excessive employment" (Chart 28) and the ratio of job offers to applicants has continued to decrease (Chart 26[1]). The unemployment rate appears to be on a moderate uptrend, but it has recently dropped slightly.
This recent drop appears to be basically caused by statistical
fluctuations, and it is also likely to be affected by the passive attitudes toward job-searching in line with the decrease in job opportunities.
In terms of employment (Chart 27[1]), the number of employees in the Labour Force Survey has continued to be around zero percent on a year-on-year basis.
As
for the number of regular employees in the Monthly Labour Survey, the year-on-year growth rate has continued to fall after having peaked at around the end of last year. The ratio of part-time employees dropped temporarily at around the time of the enforcement of the revised Part-time Work Law (effective in April 2008), but then rose.
On average, it has been essentially level (Chart 27[2]).
The year-on-year rate of change in nominal wages per employee has been around zero percent (Chart 25[1]).
In detail, regular payments have maintained a
slight positive, whereas overtime payments have turned negative and special payments have also been relatively weak.9 8
Production in the fourth quarter, based on the production forecast index of November and December, is calculated to decrease by 8.6 percent compared with the third quarter. On a quarterly basis, currently released connected indexes—which have been available since 1953—show that the largest rate of decline was 6.7 percent recorded in the first quarter of 1975.
9
According to surveys on winter bonuses released by the Japan Business Federation (final results as of December 17) and the Nihon Keizai Shimbun, Inc. (final results as of December 1), winter bonuses are projected to decrease for the first time in six years. On a year-on-year basis, the former survey showed an increase of 0.93 percent for last year and shows a decrease of 0.36
10
Looking ahead, household income is likely to weaken somewhat for the time being, in response to the decrease in corporate profits and production.
2. Prices Import prices (on a yen basis; the three-month rate of change) have dropped significantly in response to the decline in international commodity prices (Chart 30). Looking at recent developments in international commodity prices in more detail, crude oil prices have continued to fall partly due to risk aversion among investors as the slowdown in the global economy has become evident, after having marked a record high in the first half of July.
Prices of nonferrous metals and crops have also
continued to drop substantially.
Meanwhile, domestic commodity prices have
dropped sharply in response to movements in international commodity prices and to the yen's appreciation.
The three-month rate of decrease in domestic corporate goods prices (adjusted to exclude the effects of seasonal changes in electricity rates, same hereafter)10 has been large, mainly due to the drop in international commodity prices (Chart 31).
In
detail, prices of "goods sensitive to exchange rates and overseas commodity prices" have declined at a faster pace due to the drop in prices of petroleum and coal products and of nonferrous metals.
Prices of "iron and steel and construction goods" have
also accelerated their pace of decrease, due to the decline in prices of iron and steel and of scrap and waste. Prices of "other materials" have turned down, in response to developments in prices of chemical products. Prices of "others" have slowed their pace of increase compared to a while ago reflecting the stabilization in prices of processed foodstuffs and the drop in prices of agriculture, forestry and fishery products.
On the other hand, prices of "electric power, gas and water" have
continued to climb, due to high fuel costs thus far.
Prices of "machinery" have risen
percent for this year, and the latter showed an increase of 0.71 percent last year and shows a decrease of 0.80 percent this year. 10
The figures are adjusted to exclude large seasonal fluctuations in electric power charges to observe the underlying changes in domestic corporate goods prices. Industrial and commercial electric power charges are set relatively high during July-September, when consumption increases substantially.
11
lately, since past cost increases have been passed on, notably in transportation equipment.
Looking at domestic demand products as a whole, including imports,
prices of raw materials have decreased at a faster pace in response to the decline in international commodity prices and the yen's appreciation. Prices of intermediate goods and final goods have also declined at an accelerated pace, mainly reflecting developments in prices of petroleum products.
The year-on-year rate of change in corporate services prices (excluding external factors)11 has been around zero percent (Chart 32).12
Looking at recent
developments by category, the year-on-year rate of change in prices of real estate services has been positive, assisted by the rise in office space rentals in the Tokyo metropolitan area.
On the other hand, the year-on-year rate of increase in prices of
"other services" has been diminishing as a trend in response to firms' cost-cutting. Prices of information services have been relatively weak as a trend, since firms have tightened the reins on their software investment.
Prices of advertising services have
marked a relatively large decrease, albeit with fluctuations, since firms have been more cautious about increasing advertisement placements.
Prices of leasing and
rental have continued to decrease, affected by the drop in prices of office automation equipment leasing.
Meanwhile, prices of finance and insurance have been almost
flat or have been declining marginally, mainly because property and casualty insurance services have continued to fall due to the reduction in the premiums of compulsory motor vehicle insurance.
The year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices (excluding fresh food, same hereafter) has moderated to around 2 percent, mainly due to the drop in prices of petroleum products (Chart 33).
Looking at recent developments in more detail on a
year-on-year basis, prices of goods have increased, notably in prices of petroleum products and food; services prices have risen, chiefly in prices of "eating out"; and 11
"Excluding external factors" means that international air passenger transportation, ocean liner, ocean tramper, ocean tanker, oceangoing ship chartering services, and international air freight transportation are excluded from all items. 12
"All items including external factors" had continued to register a noticeable year-on-year positive due to the increase in transportation since early last year, but started to decrease in October on a year-on-year basis, mainly because oceangoing ship chartering services decreased at a faster pace and also because ocean freight transportation turned negative.
12
public utility charges have increased, mainly in electricity charges and city gas charges.
However, consumer prices reduced their year-on-year rate of increase for
the second straight month, since the upward contribution from petroleum products decreased.
Meanwhile, the year-on-year rate of change in consumer prices,
excluding food and energy, has continued to be around zero percent.
With regard to domestic supply and demand conditions in the December Tankan (Chart 34), the DI of supply and demand conditions for products and services has rapidly expanded its net "excess supply."
The weighted average of the
production capacity DI and employment conditions DI has been deteriorating for four consecutive quarters, and it has turned to a net "excess supply" lately.
In this
environment, the output prices DI has registered a net "fall" for both manufacturing and nonmanufacturing.
Looking at price developments for the time being, domestic corporate goods prices are likely to continue decreasing, mainly due to the drop in international commodity prices.
The year-on-year rate of increase in consumer prices is expected
to moderate reflecting the declines in the prices of petroleum products and the stabilization of food prices.
3. Financial Developments (1) Financial Markets Japan's money markets have continued to be nervous; trading is thinning in interbank markets as the year-end approaches.
Although the overnight call rate
(uncollateralized) has been at around 0.3 percent as the Bank of Japan conducts flexible money market operations, interest rates on term instruments, such as the Euroyen interest rate (TIBOR, 3-month), have still been somewhat high (Chart 35[1]). In U.S. dollar funding, liquidity conditions have continued to be tight, although they have been improving (Chart 36).
The FB rate (3-month) and interest rates on
Euroyen futures in nearby contracts have recently fallen reflecting expectations for an interest rate cut (Chart 35).
13
Yields on 10-year government bonds (newly issued 10-year JGB) have dropped somewhat, mainly in response to the worsening global business sentiment; they have recently been moving at around 1.3 percent (Chart 37).
Yield spreads between corporate bonds and government bonds have continued to expand significantly for those with low credit ratings, since investors have become even more selective about bond issues for investment as both the year-end and fiscal year-end approach.
Moreover, they have also expanded in some
of those with high credit ratings (Chart 38).
Stock prices have continued to show unstable movements in response to U.S. and European stock prices.
The Nikkei 225 Stock Average has been moving in the
range of 8,000-9,000 yen (Chart 39).
In the foreign exchange market, the yen has appreciated against the U.S. dollar in light of stronger concern for a prolonged recession in the U.S. economy. The yen has recently risen to around 89 yen (Chart 40).
(2) Corporate Finance and Monetary Aggregates Funding costs for firms seem to have recently edged up, as indicated by the wider credit spreads on CP and corporate bonds.
However, the average contracted
interest rates on new loans and discounts had been more or less unchanged until October (Chart 42).
The average rates are thought to have been affected not only by
the higher funding costs but also by the increased weight of lending to large firms, for which lending interest rates are relatively low.
The funding of the private sector has risen in response to firms' demands to cover the decline in operating cash inflow and to secure additional liquidity, although credit demand for working capital has stopped increasing due to a drop in materials prices.
The amount outstanding of CP and corporate bonds issued has been below
the previous year's level, owing to tightened funding conditions in the markets and overall increased risk aversion among investors (Chart 44). In contrast, lending by private banks has increased, mainly to large firms, which have covered the decline in
14
the issuance of CP and corporate bonds, although lending to small firms has remained below the previous year's level (Chart 43).
Despite the increase in bank lending, an increasing number of firms, including large firms, have reported that their financial positions are weak, and lending attitudes of financial institutions are severe (Chart 41). In the December Tankan, the DI on the lending attitudes of financial institutions dropped for both small and large firms. As for large firms, in particular, the DI has turned from "accommodative" to "severe" for the first time since the June 1999 survey.
The money stock (M2) has increased at a somewhat slower pace.
Its
November reading was 1.7 percent on a year-on-year basis, following 1.8 percent in October, and 2.2 percent in September (Chart 45).13
The number of corporate bankruptcies was up by 5.3 percent in November compared to the year-ago level, to 1,277 cases (Chart 46).
13
On an M3 basis, which includes the Japan Post Bank, the year-on-year growth rate was unchanged at 0.6 percent. Broadly-defined liquidity declined at an accelerating year-on-year rate—it declined by 0.4 percent in November following a 0.1 percent decrease in October.
15
Charts
Chart 1
Main Economic Indicators (1)
Chart 29
Prices
Chart 2
Main Economic Indicators (2)
Chart 30
Chart 3
Real GDP and Indexes of Business Conditions
Import Prices and International Commodity Prices
Chart 31
Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index
Chart 4
GDP Deflator and Income Formation
Chart 32
Corporate Services Price Index
Chart 5
Public Investment
Chart 33
Consumer Price Index (Excluding Fresh Food)
Chart 6
External Balance
Chart 34
Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions
Chart 7
Real Exports
Chart 35
Short-Term Interest Rates
Chart 8
Real Effective Exchange Rate and Overseas Economies
Chart 36
Global Money Markets
Chart 37
Long-Term Interest Rates
Chart 9
Real Imports
Chart 38
Yields of Corporate Bonds
Chart 10
Business Fixed Investment and Corporate Profits
Chart 39
Stock Prices
Chart 11
Business Fixed Investment by Industry and Size
Chart 40
Exchange Rates
Chart 41
Corporate Finance-Related Indicators
Chart 12
Coincident Indicators for Business Fixed Investment
Chart 42
Lending Rates
Chart 43
Lending by Financial Institutions
Chart 13
Leading Indicators for Business Fixed Investment
Chart 44
Chart 14
Current Profits
Private-Sector Fund-Raising in the Capital Markets
Chart 15
Business Conditions
Chart 45
Money Stock
Chart 16
Business Fixed Investment Plans as Surveyed
Chart 46
Corporate Bankruptcies
Chart 17
Indicators for Private Consumption (1)
Chart 18
Indicators for Private Consumption (2)
Chart 19
Indicators for Private Consumption (3)
Chart 20
Consumer Confidence
Chart 21
Indicators for Housing Investment
Chart 22
Production, Shipments, and Inventories
Chart 23
Shipments Breakdown by Type of Goods
Chart 24
Inventory Cycle
Chart 25
Employee Income
Chart 26
Labor Market (1)
Chart 27
Labor Market (2)
Chart 28
Employment Conditions
Chart 1
Main Economic Indicators (1) s.a., q/q (m/m) % chg. 1 2008/Q1
Q2
Q3
2008/Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Nov.
Index of consumption expenditure level (two-or-more-person households)
-0.4
-2.0
-0.5
-3.3
1.7
-0.6
n.a.
Sales at department stores
-0.7
-3.0
0.7
-2.7
0.8
-3.6
n.a.
Sales at supermarkets
0.2
-1.7
0.3
-2.4
1.1
-2.2
n.a.
< 301>
< 295>
< 285>
< 273>
< 271>
< 258>
< 233>
Sales of household electrical appliances (real, Current Survey of Commerce)
5.7
1.8
7.2
4.9
-4.3
-3.0
n.a.
Outlays for travel
0.4
-2.9
-1.6
-2.7
-3.2
3.5
n.a.
< 114>
< 112>
< 113>
< 113>
< 113>
< 103>
2.2
0.6
-10.4
-14.5
5.5
-4.4
n.a.
-5.9
2.7
-10.9
-13.9
9.7
-2.2
n.a.
6.5
1.0
-12.0
-14.9
-1.3
-2.3
n.a.
1.2
-2.8
0.2
-4.2
-10.9
-1.1
n.a.
-1.0
7.6
10.0
-22.5
-24.8
23.6
n.a.
1.9
-5.4
-1.2
-1.5
-1.9
-10.5
n.a.
Value of public works contracted
-0.5
-8.3
11.3
-7.2
-2.7
-0.6
9.0
Real exports
3.2
-3.3
1.7
-1.4
-0.3
-3.2
n.a.
Real imports
0.8
-3.2
2.9
1.3
3.6
0.5
n.a.
Industrial production
-0.7
-0.8
-1.3
-3.5
1.1
-3.1
n.a.
Shipments
-0.5
-0.9
-1.8
-3.7
0.4
-3.0
n.a.
Inventories
0.0
0.4
1.6
-0.3
2.0
1.8
n.a.
< 105.3>
< 105.0>
< 108.3>
< 109.0>
< 108.3>
< 112.5>
Real GDP
0.6
-1.0
-0.5
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
n.a.
Index of all industry activity
-0.9
0.5
-0.8
-1.7
0.0
-0.5
n.a.
New passenger-car registrations <s.a., ann. 10,000 units>
3
Housing starts <s.a., ann. 10,000 units> Machinery orders (from private sector4) Manufacturing Nonmanufacturing 4 Construction Starts (private, nondwelling use) Mining & manufacturing Nonmanufacturing 5
Inventory Ratio <s.a., CY 2005 = 100>
Chart 2
Main Economic Indicators (2) y/y % chg.1 2008/Q1
Q2
Q3
Sep.
Oct.
< 0.97>
< 0.92>
< 0.86>
< 0.86>
< 0.84>
< 0.80>
< 3.9>
< 4.0>
< 4.1>
< 4.2>
< 4.0>
< 3.7>
Overtime working hours6
0.7
-1.2
-2.3
-2.9
-2.7
-4.5
n.a.
Number of employees
0.0
-0.0
0.1
0.0
0.4
0.3
n.a.
Number of regular employees6
1.9
1.7
1.5
1.5
1.4
1.3
n.a.
Nominal wages per person6
1.6
0.7
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
n.a.
3.5
4.9
7.1
7.4
6.8
5.0
p 2.8
< 1.0>
< 2.4>
< 2.8>
< 2.9>
< 1.4>
<-1.8>
1.0
1.5
2.3
2.4
2.3
1.9
n.a.
Corporate services price index
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.4
0.1
p -1.4
n.a.
Money Stock (M2)
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.4
2.2
1.8
p 1.7
Number of corporate bankruptcies
<1,238>
<1,276>
<1,345>
<1,254>
<1,408>
<1,429>
<1,277>
Ratio of job offers to applicants <s.a., times> Unemployment rate <s.a., %>
9
Domestic corporate goods price index Consumer price index
8
7
2008/Aug.
Nov.
Notes: 1. All figures in Chart 1 except figures in angle brackets are quarter-on-quarter (month-on-month) changes of seasonal adjusted data. All figures in Chart 2 except figures in angle brackets are year-on-year changes. For details on seasonal adjustments and data processing/compilation conducted by the Bank of Japan, see notes of the respective charts. 2. Figures with "p" indicate preliminary data. 3. Excludes small cars with engine sizes of 660 cc or less. 4. Excludes orders of shipbuilding and orders from electric power companies. 5. Nonmanufacturing is mainly composed of commerce, services, agriculture & fisheries and public utilities industries. 6. Data for establishments with at least five regular employees. 7. Adjusted to exclude a hike in electric power charges during the summer season. 8. Excludes fresh food. 9. Data have been revised to the 2005 base.
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey," "Monthly Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey," "Consumer Price Index"; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Current Survey of Commerce," "Indices of Industrial Production," "Indices of All Industry Activity"; Japan Automobile Dealers Association, "Domestic Sales of Automobiles"; Japan Tourism Agency, "Major Travel Agents' Revenue"; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Statistics on Building Construction Starts"; Ministry of Finance, "The Summary Report on Trade of Japan"; Cabinet Office, "Orders Received for Machinery," "National Accounts"; East Japan Construction Surety etc., "Public Works Prepayment Surety Statistics"; Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Report on Employment Service," "Monthly Labour Survey"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index," "Corporate Services Price Index," "Money Stock" ; Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd., "Tosan Geppo (Monthly Review of Corporate Bankruptcies)."
Chart 3
Real GDP and Indexes of Business Conditions (1) Real GDP s.a.; q/q % chg. 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 Private demand Public demand Net exports Real GDP
-0.5 -1.0 -1.5 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Components s.a.; q/q % chg. 2008 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Real GDP 0.5 0.5 0.6 -1.0 -0.5 Domestic demand -0.0 0.2 0.1 -0.9 -0.3 Private demand 0.1 -0.2 0.4 -0.7 -0.2 Private consumption 0.0 0.0 0.5 -0.4 0.2 Non-Resi. investment 0.4 0.0 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 Residential investment -0.3 -0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.1 Private inventory 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.0 -0.2 Public demand -0.2 0.4 -0.3 -0.2 -0.1 Public investment -0.1 0.0 -0.2 -0.0 0.0 Net exports of goods and services 0.5 0.3 0.5 -0.0 -0.2 Exports 0.4 0.5 0.6 -0.5 0.2 Imports 0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.5 -0.4 Nominal GDP 0.3 -0.2 0.4 -1.4 -0.7 Note: Figures of components in real GDP indicate contributions to changes in GDP. 2007
(3) Indexes of Business Conditions (Composite Indexes) 110 105 100
CY 2005=100 Coincident index Leading index Lagging index
95 90 85 80 75 70 65 CY 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08
Note: Shaded areas indicate recession periods. Source: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts," "Indexes of Business Conditions."
Chart 4
GDP Deflator and Income Formation (1) GDP Deflator 2.0
y/y % chg. Domestic demand deflator Net export deflator GDP deflator
1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Net Export Deflator 1.0
y/y % chg. contributions to changes in GDP deflator
0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5
Import deflator Export deflator
-2.0
Net Export deflator
-2.5 -3.0 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
(3) Aggregate Income Formation 5.0
y/y % chg. Net income from the rest of the world Trading gains/losses Real GDP (gross domestic product) Real GDI (gross domestic income) Real GNI (gross national income)
4.0 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 CY
0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
Note: Figures of components indicate contributions to changes in real GNI. Trading gains/losses = nominal net exports / weighted average of export and import deflators - real net exports
Source: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts."
Chart 5
Public Investment (1) Amount of Public Construction Completed and Public Investment s.a., ann., tril. yen
40
Amount of public construction completed
35
Public investment 30
25
20
15
10 CY
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Value of Public Works Contracted 30
s.a., ann., tril. yen
s.a., ann., tril. yen
20
Total (left scale) Local governments (right scale)
25
15
Central government (right scale)
20
10
15
5
10
0
CY
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: 1. Quarterly figures of public investment are plotted at the middle month of each quarter. 2. Amount of public construction completed is based on the general tables in the "Integrated Statistics on Construction Works." The figures until March 2000 are retroactively calculated with year-to-year growth rates on the former basis. 3. The figures of value of public works contracted and amount of public construction completed are seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. Sources: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts"; East Japan Construction Surety etc., "Public Works Prepayment Surety Statistics"; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Integrated Statistics on Construction Works."
Chart 6
External Balance (1) Real Exports and Real Imports 140
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
130 120 110 100 Real imports 90 80
Real exports
70 60 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Real Trade Balance and Nominal Current Account Surplus 320
s.a.; tril. yen
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
8
280
7
240
6
200
5
Nominal current account surplus (right scale)
160
4 Real trade balance (left scale)
120
3
80
2
40
1 Nominal goods & services surplus (right scale)
0
0 -1
-40 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Real trade balance is defined as real exports minus real imports, indexed with base year of 2005. Real exports/imports are "The Value of Exports and Imports in Trade Statistics" deflated by the "Export and Import Price Index." Notes: 2. Figures are seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. Notes: 3. 2008/Q4 figures for Real exports/imports and the real trade balance are October figures converted into quarterly amount. Notes: 4. 2008/Q4 figures for Nominal Current Account Surplus and Nominal Goods & Services Surplus are October figures converted into quarterly amount. Sources: Ministry of Finance, "The Summary Report on Trade of Japan"; Ministry of Finance and Bank of Japan, "Balance of Payments"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index."
Chart 7
Real Exports 1 (1) Breakdown by Region y/y % chg. CY 2007 Q4 2006 2007
s.a.; q/q % chg. 2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
s.a.; m/m % chg. 2008 Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
United States
<20.1>
11.7
-1.2
-1.3
-0.2
-6.9
-4.0
-1.5
-3.4
6.6
-4.5
EU
<14.8>
11.1
13.0
2.6
4.2
-7.4
2.1
-6.8
-1.5
-2.8
-4.6
East Asia
<46.0>
8.9
10.3
2.9
4.9
-2.4
1.8
-4.4
2.4
-6.5
-0.8
China
<15.3>
18.8
16.8
2.0
5.1
1.7
0.9
-1.0
1.0
-8.6
4.9
NIEs
<22.4>
6.3
5.2
2.0
5.3
-5.9
3.1
-9.0
2.1
-5.5
-6.2
Korea
<7.6>
9.6
5.3
4.7
3.6
-4.9
6.0
-13.2
4.4
1.5
-15.2
Taiwan
<6.3>
2.7
0.0
-3.8
8.7
-8.9
0.5
-12.1
8.6
-11.6
-7.1
ASEAN4 3
<8.3>
1.8
13.2
6.4
3.6
-0.7
0.2
0.5
5.6
-5.3
2.3
Thailand
<3.6>
4.1
9.8
2.1
5.1
-6.9
4.8
3.0
10.0
-7.5
5.1
Others
<19.1>
20.2
19.9
9.2
4.8
-0.1
4.1
1.0
-7.0
7.2
-1.1
11.2
9.1
1.9
3.2
-3.3
1.7
-3.8
-1.4
-0.3
-3.2
Real exports
(2) Breakdown by Goods y/y % chg. CY 2007 Q4 2006 2007
s.a.; q/q % chg. 2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
s.a.; m/m % chg. 2008 Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Intermediate goods
<18.4>
6.9
5.3
1.6
2.1
-6.0
2.1
-1.8
2.8
-1.0
-2.0
Motor vehicles and their related goods
<24.1>
14.2
13.2
6.6
3.1
-4.8
0.0
-4.4
-6.0
2.1
-3.7
Consumer goods 4
<4.5>
9.8
6.4
-0.2
4.3
3.1
-1.1
-6.8
6.3
0.6
-9.0
IT-related goods 5
<11.0>
7.5
12.2
2.5
-1.3
4.4
2.4
-9.6
1.9
-1.3
-9.4
<28.4>
13.3
8.0
2.8
4.3
-2.0
1.7
0.8
-2.5
3.0
-0.3
11.2
9.1
1.9
3.2
-3.3
1.7
-3.8
-1.4
-0.3
-3.2
Capital goods and parts
6
Real exports
Notes: 1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2008/Q4 figures are October figures converted into quarterly amount. Notes: 2. Shares of each region and goods in 2007 are shown in angle brackets. Notes: 3. Data of four members: Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Notes: 4. Excludes motor vehicles. Notes: 5. IT-related goods are composed of computers and units, telecommunication machinery, Notes: 5. ICs, and medical and optical instruments. Notes: 6. Excludes IT-related goods, power generating machinery and parts of motor vehicles. Sources: Ministry of Finance, "The Summary Report on Trade of Japan"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index."
Chart 8
Real Effective Exchange Rate and Overseas Economies (1) Real Effective Exchange Rate 170 160
March 1973 = 100 165.5 Yen's appreciation 148.1
150 140
Yen's depreciation
140.2
130 123.4
120 110
107.2 110.1 106.3
100 90
91.2
82.3 80
CY 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 Note: Calculated by the Bank of Japan. Monthly average. Figure for December 2008 is the average up to December 18. Figures are the index of weighted average of the yen's real exchange rates versus 15 major currencies (29 countries) which are calculated from nominal exchange rates and price indexes of the respective countries.
(2) Real GDP Growth Rates in Overseas Economies CY2005 1
United States 1 European Union Germany France United Kingdom China Korea Taiwan NIEs Hong Kong East 2 Singapore Asia Thailand ASEAN4 Indonesia Malaysia Philippines
2006
2007
2007
2008
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
2.9 2.0 0.9 1.9 2.1
2.8 3.2 3.2 2.4 2.8
2.0 2.9 2.6 2.1 3.0
-0.2 1.7 1.4 1.4 2.0
0.9 2.4 5.7 1.6 1.1
2.8 -0.2 -1.7 -1.1 0.0
-0.5 -0.7 -2.1 0.6 -2.0
10.4 4.2 4.2 7.1 7.3 4.6 5.7 5.3 5.0
11.6 5.1 4.8 7.0 8.2 5.2 5.5 5.8 5.4
11.9 5.0 5.7 6.4 7.7 4.9 6.3 6.3 7.2
11.3 5.7 6.4 6.9 5.4 5.7 6.3 7.3 6.4
10.6 5.8 6.2 7.3 6.9 6.0 6.3 7.4 4.7
10.1 4.8 4.6 4.2 2.3 5.3 6.4 6.7 4.4
9.0 3.8 -1.0 1.7 -0.6 4.0 6.1 4.7 4.6
Notes: 1. Quarterly data of U.S. and EU are quarter-to-quarter percent changes at annual rates. Notes: 2. Quarterly data of East Asia are percent changes from a year earlier.
Chart 9
Real Imports 1 (1) Breakdown by Region y/y % chg. CY 2007 Q4 2006 2007
s.a.; q/q % chg. 2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
s.a.; m/m % chg. 2008 Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
United States
<11.4>
5.2
-1.5
3.3
-1.1
-3.9
2.3
2.2
11.9
1.2
-2.1
EU
<10.5>
0.8
4.0
-3.3
-1.0
0.2
-3.0
-2.0
2.9
1.0
-3.6
East Asia
<40.9>
8.7
3.3
0.1
2.2
-3.0
4.2
4.7
0.6
3.8
2.0
China
<20.6>
10.9
5.7
-0.1
0.8
-0.9
7.2
3.6
-0.7
5.0
0.6
NIEs
<8.9>
12.2
-3.8
0.5
3.0
-4.4
1.8
-1.2
0.3
-1.9
-0.1
Korea
<4.4>
10.6
-3.3
0.5
3.3
-9.2
1.3
-3.9
-0.3
-4.1
-1.1
Taiwan
<3.2>
15.6
-3.0
-1.7
4.2
1.6
3.2
0.3
3.0
-3.6
1.8
3
<11.4>
2.5
4.8
0.0
4.1
-5.5
0.8
11.5
3.5
5.8
6.2
Thailand
<2.9>
8.7
4.4
-0.5
1.2
-3.2
5.4
6.2
5.0
11.5
-2.6
Others
<37.2>
2.5
-0.1
-0.4
0.9
-3.8
3.4
3.7
2.2
1.6
1.8
3.4
0.7
-0.5
0.8
-3.2
2.9
3.3
1.3
3.6
0.5
ASEAN4
Real imports
(2) Breakdown by Goods y/y % chg. CY 2007 Q4 2006 2007
s.a.; q/q % chg. 2008 Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
s.a.; m/m % chg. 2008 Aug.
Sep.
Oct.
Raw materials 4
<35.4>
0.7
0.7
-0.3
1.6
-5.9
3.3
5.7
2.8
-1.1
5.5
Intermediate goods
<14.8>
3.1
2.0
-1.8
-1.7
2.3
1.3
5.9
1.1
5.3
2.0
Foodstuffs
<8.3>
-4.0
-9.6
-6.2
-1.0
-0.7
2.4
15.5
9.6
4.1
9.2
Consumer goods 5
<8.1>
4.3
-0.1
-2.8
0.6
-3.2
2.3
-0.8
0.6
1.6
-2.0
IT-related goods 6
<11.3>
17.2
4.2
1.7
4.1
-2.3
4.7
-1.4
-0.2
-1.9
-0.0
Capital goods and parts 7
<12.8>
16.8
8.5
4.5
1.2
-1.3
2.4
-5.2
3.0
8.2
-10.9
<11.8>
17.7
7.9
1.9
0.0
2.5
-2.1
1.5
-1.6
7.7
-2.8
3.4
0.7
-0.5
0.8
-3.2
2.9
3.3
1.3
3.6
0.5
Excluding aircraft
Real imports
Notes: 1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2008/Q4 figures are October figures converted into quarterly amount. Notes: 2. Shares of each region and goods in 2007 are shown in angle brackets. Notes: 3. Data of four members: Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Indonesia. Notes: 4. Raw materials are mainly composed of woods, ores and mineral fuel. Notes: 5. Excludes foodstuffs. Notes: 6. IT-related goods are composed of computers and units, parts of computer, telecommunication machinery, Notes: 6. ICs, and medical and optical instruments. Notes: 7. Excludes IT-related goods. Sources: Ministry of Finance, "The Summary Report on Trade of Japan"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index."
Chart 10
Business Fixed Investment and Corporate Profits (1) Business Fixed Investment 14
s.a.; q/q % chg.
12
10 8 6 4
08/Q2: - 7.0%
2 0
08/Q3: - 3.5%
-2 -4 -6
Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly
-8
Excluding leasing etc.: -2.4%
1,3
Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly (Excluding leasing etc.) 1,2,3,4 GDP (nominal)
-10 -12 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Corporate Profits (Ratio of Profits to Sales) 1,3 4.5
s.a.; %
Ratio of current profits to sales 4.0
Ratio of operating profits to sales
Ratio of current profits to sales : 3.11%
4
3.5
Ratio of operating profits to sales : 2.87%
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. All enterprises excluding Finance and Insurance. 2. Up to 2004/1Q, excluding business services. From 2004/2Q, excluding leasing, miscellaneous rental and leasing goods, advertising, and miscellaneous business services. 3. Based on the "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly.". 4. Figures are seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA.
Sources: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts"; Ministry of Finance, "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly."
Chart 11
Business Fixed Investment by Industry and Size (1) Large Manufacturing Firms 5.0
(2) Medium-Sized and Small Manufacturing Firms
tril. yen; s.a.
2.6
Fixed investment
Fixed investment
2.4
Depreciation expenses
4.5
tril. yen; s.a.
Depreciation expenses
Cash flow
4.0
Fixed investment: q/q % chg.
3.5
08/Q2: +3.5%
3.0
08/Q3: - 4.4%
2.2
Fixed investment: q/q % chg.
Cash flow
2.0
08/Q2: - 7.8%
1.8 1.6
08/Q3: - 2.3%
1.4 1.2
2.5
1.0 2.0 0.8 0.6
1.5 CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(3) Large Nonmanufacturing Firms 7.0
6.0
Fixed investment Fixed Investment (excluding leasing etc.) 5 Depreciation expenses Cash flow
6.0
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
tril. yen; s.a. Fixed investment 5 Fixed Investment(excluding Leasing etc) Depreciation expenses Cash flow
5.5 Fixed investment: q/q % chg.
5.5
08/Q2: -13.4%
5.0
08/Q3: -10.7%
4.5 4.0
Excluding leasing etc.: -10.7%
3.5
Fixed investment: q/q % chg.
5.0 4.5
08/Q2: -14.2%
4.0 08/Q3: + 1.1%
3.5
Excluding leasing etc.: +10.0%
3.0 2.5
3.0 2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
CY 0 0
01
(4) Medium-Sized and Small Nonmanufacturing Firms
tril. yen; s.a.
6.5
CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: 1. "Large firms" refers to firms with capital stock of 1 billion yen or more, and "medium-sized and small firms" refers to firms with capital stock of 10 million or more but less than 1 billion yen. 2. Cash flow = current profits / 2 + depreciation expenses. 3. Seasonally adjusted by X-11. 4. Excluding Finance and Insurance. 5. Up to 2004/1Q, excluding business services. From 2004/2Q, excluding leasing, miscellaneous rental and leasing goods, advertising, and miscellaneous business services.
Source: Ministry of Finance, "Financial Statements Statistics of Corporations by Industry, Quarterly."
Chart 12
Coincident Indicators for Business Fixed Investment (1) Aggregate Supply and Shipments of Capital Goods 115
CY 2005 = 100; s.a. Domestic shipments and imports Domestic shipments and imports (excluding transport equipment) Domestic shipments and exports Domestic shipments and exports (excluding transport equipment)
110 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Note: Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October.
(2) Indices of Capacity Utilization and Production Capacity DI 120
reverse scale, "excessive" - "insufficient", % points
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
-10
Indices of capacity utilization (manufacturing, left scale) 3
115
Production capacity DI (nonmanufacturing, right scale)
-5
Forecast
Production capacity DI (manufacturing, right scale) 1, 2 1, 2
0
110
5 105 10 100 15 95 20 90
25
85
30
80
35
CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Production capacity DIs are those of all enterprises. 2. The Tankan has been revised from the March 2004 survey. Figures up to the December 2003 survey are based on the previous data sets. Figures from the December 2003 survey are on a new basis. 3. The figure for 2008/Q4 is October.
Sources: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of Industrial Production," "Indices of Industrial Domestic Shipments and Imports"; Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
09
Chart 13
Leading Indicators for Business Fixed Investment (1) Machinery Orders 2.0
tril. yen; s.a.
tril. yen; s.a.
3.8
Manufacturing (left scale) Nonmanufacturing (left scale)
1.8
1
All industries <private sector> (right scale)
3.6
1
2
3.4
1.6 3.2 1.4
3
3.0 4
1.2 2.8 1.0
2.6
0.8
2.4 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Excludes orders of shipbuilding and orders from electric power companies. 2. Forecast of nonmanufacturing industries for 2008/Q4. 3. Forecast of manufacturing industries for 2008/Q4. 4. Forecast of all industries <private sector> for 2008/Q4. 5. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October in terms of quarterly amount.
(2) Construction Starts (Floor Area, Private, Nondwelling Use) 15
million square meters; s.a.
million square meters; s.a.
Mining & manufacturing (left scale) Nonmanufacturing (left scale) All industries <private sector> (right scale)
13
22 20
11
18
9
16
7
14
5
12
3
10
1
8 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
Notes: 1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2. Because the Standard Industrial Classification for Japan was revised in March 2002, the industry classification for newspaper publishing and publishing business was changed from mining and manufacturing to nonmanufacturing. Accordingly, the data up to FY 2002 were adjusted by using a link coefficient. 3. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October in terms of quarterly amount.
Sources: Cabinet Office, "Orders Received for Machinery"; Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Statistics on Building Construction Starts."
0 8
Chart 14
Current Profits (1) Large Manufacturing Enterprises 20
(2) Small Manufacturing Enterprises
tril. yen
5
tril. yen
Forecast Forecast
18 16
4
FY07 FY08 ( 0.8) (-24.2) < 6.42> < 4.83>
14
FY07 FY08 (-12.3) (-18.2) < 3.33> < 2.75>
3 12 10 2 8 6
1
4 2
0 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 FY
(3) Large Nonmanufacturing Enterprises 18
tril. yen
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 FY
(4) Small Nonmanufacturing Enterprises 7
tril. yen
Forecast 16
14
FY07 FY08 ( 0.3) (-16.7) < 4.12> < 3.28>
Forecast
6
FY07 FY08 (- 1.6) (-16.5) < 2.40> < 2.04>
5 12 4 10 3
8
6
2 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 FY
90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 FY
Notes: 1. ( ): Current profits (y/y % chg.), < >: Ratio of current profit to sales (%). 2. In the March 2004 survey, the Tankan underwent major revisions, including the addition of new sample enterprises to the survey. In the March 2007 survey, regular revisions were made to the sample enterprises. The data show some discontinuities coincided with these timings.
Source: Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
Chart 15
Business Conditions (1) Manufacturing 60
DI <"favorable" - "unfavorable"> , % points
50
Large enterprises
40
Small enterprises
Forecast
30 "Favorable"
20 10 0
"Unfavorable"
-10 -20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 CY 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
(2) Nonmanufacturing 60 50
DI <"favorable" - "unfavorable"> , % points
Large enterprises 2
Forecast
40 30
Small enterprises "Favorable"
20 10 0 -10
"Unfavorable"
-20 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 CY 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
Notes: 1. The Tankan has been revised from the March 2004 survey. Figures up to the December 2003 survey are based on the previous data sets. Figures from the December 2003 survey are on a new basis. 2. Data prior to Feb. 1983 are those of principal enterprises. 3. Shaded areas indicate recession periods.
Source: Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
Chart 16
Business Fixed Investment Plans as Surveyed
(1) Large Manufacturing Enterprises 25
(2) Small Manufacturing Enterprises average (FY84-07)
y/y % chg.
average (FY84-07)
y/y % chg.
30
FY2006 (post-revision)
25 FY2004
20
FY2006 (pre-revision)
20
FY2006 (pre-revision)
FY2005
15
15
FY2006 (post-revision)
10 5
FY2007
FY2005
FY2004
0
10
-5
FY2008 FY2007
-10
5
-15
FY2008
-20
0
-25 -30
-5 Mar.
Jun.
Sept.
Dec.
Forecast Actual (timing of survey)
(3) Large Nonmanufacturing Enterprises 25
Mar.
Sept.
Dec.
Forecast Actual (timing of survey)
(4) Small Nonmanufacturing Enterprises
average (FY84-07)
y/y % chg.
Jun.
30
average (FY84-07)
y/y % chg.
25 20
20 FY2007
FY2006 (post-revision)
15
15 10 5
FY2006 (pre-revision)
10
FY2005
FY2006 (pre-revision)
0 -5 FY2005
5
FY2004
-10
FY2006 (post-revision)
-15 0
-20 FY2008
-5 Mar.
FY2004
FY2008
FY2007
-25 -30
Jun.
Sept.
Dec.
Forecast Actual (timing of survey)
Mar.
Jun.
Sept.
Dec.
Forecast Actual (timing of survey)
Notes: 1. Includes land purchasing expenses and excludes software investment. 2. In the March 2007 survey, regular revisions were made to the sample enterprises. The data show some discontinuities coincided with this timing.
Source: Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
Chart 17
Indicators for Private Consumption (1) (1) Household Spending (Real) 108
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
106
s.a., CY 2005 = 100 Total expenditure2,5 (Survey of Household Economy, left scale)
Index of Consumption Expenditure Level 1,4 (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, left scale)
104
115
110
102 100 105 98 Index of Consumption Expenditure Level excluding housing, automobiles, money gifts and remittance1,4 (Family Income and Expenditure Survey, left scale)
96
100
94 Sales at retail stores3,6 (right scale)
92 90
95 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Sales of Durable Goods s.a., CY 2005 = 100
115
s.a., CY 2005 = 100 Sales of household electrical appliances3,6 (real, right scale)
110 105
160 150 140 130
100
120
95
110
New passenger-car registrations including small cars with engine sizes of 660 cc or less3(left scale)
90 85
100 90
80
New passenger-car registrations excluding small cars with engine sizes of 660 cc or less3(left scale)
75
80 70
70
60
65
50 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
Notes: 1. 2. 3. 4.
07
08
Index of consumption expenditure level is seasonally adjusted by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. Total expenditure is seasonally adjusted by X-11. All the other indicators are seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. Index of consumption expenditure level is based on two-or-more-person households, and is adjusted by the distribution of household by number of household members and age group of household head. 5. Total expenditure is based on two-or-more-person households, and is deflated by the consumer price index excluding imputed rent. 6. Sales at retail stores are deflated by the consumer price index for goods (excluding electricity, gas & water charges). Sales of household electrical appliances are calculated as follows: indices of retail sales of machinery and equipment in the Current Survey of Commerce are deflated by the geometric means of the corresponding consumer price indexes (or by the corporate goods price index for PC printers before 2002). 7. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October in terms of quarterly amount.
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Consumer Price Index," "Monthly Report on the Family Income and Expenditure Survey," "Survey of Household Economy"; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Current Survey of Commerce"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index"; Japan Automobile Dealers Association, "Domestic Sales of Automobiles"; Japan Mini Vehicles Association, "Sales of Mini Vehicles."
Chart 18
Indicators for Private Consumption 1 (2) (1) Sales at Retail Stores (Nominal)2 130
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
125
120 115
Sales at supermarkets (left scale) Sales at convenience stores (right scale)
120
110
115 105 110 100 105 95
100
90
95
Sales at department stores (left scale) 85
90 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Consumption of Services (Nominal) s.a., CY 2005 = 100
s.a., CY 2005 = 100 115
120 115
110
110
3
Outlays for travel (left scale)
105
105
100 100
95 90
95
Sales of food service industry 4 (right scale)
85 80
90
75 85
70 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: 1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2. Adjusted to exclude the effects of the increase in the number of stores (except convenience stores). 3. As for "outlays for travel," there is a discontinuity in the underlying data as of April 2007 due to changes in the sample. Data from April 2007 and onward are calculated using the year-on-year rate of changes on the new basis. 4. Sales of food service industry are calculated using the year-on-year rates of change of every month released by the Japan Food Service Association based on monthly sales amounts in 1993 released by the Food Service Industry Survey & Research Center.
Sources: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Current Survey of Commerce"; Japan Tourisum Agency, "Major Travel Agents' Revenue"; Food Service Industry Survey & Research Center, "Getsuji Uriage Doukou Chousa (Monthly Survey of Food Service Sales)"; Japan Food Service Association, "Gaishoku Sangyou Shijou Doukou Chousa (Research on the Food Service Industry)."
Chart 19
Indicators for Private Consumption (3) (1) Indices of Aggregated Sales (Real) s.a., CY 2005 = 100
s.a., CY 2005 = 100 111
104 Including the effects of the increase in the number of stores (right scale)
109
102
107
100
105
98 Excluding the effects of the increase in the number of stores (left scale)
103
96
101
94
99
92
97
90
95 CY 0 0
88 0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. The Indices of Aggregated Sales are the weighted sum of "sales at department stores and supermarkets," "new passenger-car registrations," "sales of household electrical appliances," "outlays for travel," and "sales of food service industry," where the weights come from household expenditure in the Family Income and Expenditure Survey. These indices of aggregated sales consist of the series including and excluding the effects of the increase in the number of stores. Indices "including the effects of the increase in the number of stores" reflect the fluctuations in sales due to changes in the number of stores caused by the opening and closing down of businesses (indices "including the effects of the increase in the number of stores" include sales at convenience stores). On the other hand, those "excluding the effects of the increase in the number of stores" aim to capture consumption trends only from stores for which sales data can be obtained continuously. 2. Sales indicators in nominal terms are deflated by the corresponding items of the price indices. 3. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 4. Data for 2008/Q4 figures are those of October in terms of quarterly amount.
(2) Aggregate Supply of Consumer Goods 115
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
130
Total (domestic shipments + imports, left scale) 110
120
Domestic shipments (left scale) Imports (right scale)
110
105 100 100 90 95
80
90
70 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Note: Data for 2008/Q4 figures are those of October in terms of quarterly amount.
Sources: Bank of Japan, "Indices of Aggregated Sales"; Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of Industrial Domestic Shipments and Imports."
Chart 20
Consumer Confidence
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
110
s.a., CY 2005 = 100
95
90
100
80
105
70 Worsened
90
Consumer Confidence Index (left scale)
100
85
60
110
NRI Consumer Sentiment Index (reverse scale, right scale)
Consumption Forecasting Indicator (left scale)
115
50
120 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Worsened
Improved
120
Improved
(1) Seasonally Adjusted Series
(2) Original Series CY 2005 = 100
NRI Consumer Sentiment Index (reverse scale, right scale)
110
Consumption Forecasting Indicator (left scale)
90
100
95
90
100
80 Worsened
85 Improved
CY 2005 = 100
105 Consumer Confidence Index (3-month backward moving average, left scale)
70 60
Consumer Confidence Index (left scale)
110 115
50
Worsened
Improved
120
120 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07
08
Reference: Economy Watchers Survey (Household Activity, Current Conditions) 60
DI, original series
55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
Notes: 1. The Consumer Confidence Index (with about 5,000 samples on a nationwide basis), Consumption Forecasting Indicator (with 600 samples in the metropolitan area), and NRI Consumer Sentiment Index (with 1,200 samples on a nationwide basis) are based on surveys on consumer confidence. 2. Figures are plotted for each surveyed months and the data for intervening months are linearly interpolated. 3. (1) is seasonally adjusted by X-11. The Consumer Confidence Index is seasonally adjusted by the Cabinet Office. The Consumption Forecasting Indicator is seasonally adjusted using quarterly figures because the survey was quarterly until 2004. Sources: Cabinet Office, "Consumer Confidence Survey," "Economy Watchers Survey"; Nikkei inc., "Consumption Forecasting Indicator"; Nippon Research Institute (NRI), "Consumer Sentiment Survey."
Chart 21
Indicators for Housing Investment (1) Housing Starts 140
s.a., ann., 10,000 units
s.a., ann., 10,000 units
90
130
80
120
70
110
60
100
50
90
40
80
30
Total (left scale) Housing for sale (right scale) Owner-occupied houses (right scale) Housing for rent (right scale)
70
20
60
10 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Note: Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October.
(2) Sales of Apartments 25
s.a., ann., 10,000 units
s.a., 10,000 units
Stock (term-end, total of Tokyo and Kinki, right scale)
Kinki area (left scale)
2.0 1.8
Tokyo metropolitan area (left scale) 20
1.6 1.4
15
1.2 1.0
10
0.8 0.6
5
0.4 0.2
0
0.0 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2. Figures of total apartments sales for 2008/Q4 are those of October-November averages. Term-end stocks for 2008/Q4 are those of November.
Source: Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport, "Statistics on Building Construction Starts," etc.
Chart 22
Production, Shipments and Inventories (1) Production, Shipments and Inventories 120
CY 2005 = 100; s.a. Production
115
Shipments Inventories Inventory ratio
110
105
100 METI projection
95
90
85 CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Production by Industry 4
s.a.; q/q % chg.
3
METI projection
2 1 0 -1 -2 Others General machinery Ships and rolling stocks Chemicals (excl. drugs) Transport equipment (excl. ships and rolling stocks) Other electrical machinery Electronic parts and devices Total
-3 -4 -5 -6 -7 -8 -9 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. "Other electrical machinery" is the weighted sum of "electrical machinery" and "information and communication electronics equipment." 2. Figures up to 2003/Q1 are on the 2000 base. 3. 2008/Q4 figures are based on the actual production level in October, and the METI projection of November and December.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of Industrial Production."
Chart 23
Shipments Breakdown by Type of Goods (1) Final Demand Goods and Producer Goods 115
Final demand goods <50.7%> CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
Producer goods <49.3%> CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
115 110
110
105 100
105
95 100
90 85
95
80 90
75 CY 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
CY 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07
08
Note: Figures in angle brackets show the shares among shipments of mining and manufacturing.
(2) Breakdown of Final Demand Goods Capital goods 120
Durable consumer goods <31.7%>
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
125
115
Capital goods (excl. transport equipment) <23.2%>
120
110
Capital goods <32.7%>
115
105
110
100
105
95
100
90
95
85
90
80
85
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
80
75 CY 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
CY 01
08
03
04
05
06
Non-durable consumer goods <23.6%>
Construction goods <12.1%> 120
02
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
110
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
115 110
105
105 100 100
95 90 85
95
CY 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
CY 01
02
03
04
Note: Figures in angle brackets show the shares among shipments of final demand goods. Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of Industrial Production."
05
06
07
08
Chart 24
Inventory Cycle Total Inventories; y/y % chg.
15 05/Q1
08/Q4
10
08/Q3
5 01/Q1
0 -5 -10
02/Q2
45°
-15 -15
-10
-5
0
(1) Total 15
(2) Capital Goods (Excluding Transport Equipment)
y/y % chg.
% points
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5 Shipments-Inventories (right scale) Shipments (left scale) Inventories (left scale)
-10 -15 CY0 1 0 2
03
04
05
06
07
-10 -15
% points
03
04
05
CY0 1 0 2
06
07
10 20 15 5 10 5 0 0 -5 -5 -10 -10 -15 -20 -15
08
% points
03
04
05
03
04
05
06
07
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
08
% points
10 5 0 -5 -10 -15
03
04
05
06
07
08
(6) Producer Goods Excluding Electronic Parts and Devices
y/y % chg.
CY0 1 0 2
% points
y/y % chg.
CY0 1 0 2
(5) Electronic Parts and Devices 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10 -20 -30 -40
y/y % chg.
(4) Construction Goods
y/y % chg.
CY0 1 0 2
20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25
08
(3) Durable Consumer Goods 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20
5 10 15 Shipments; y/y % chg.
06
07
08
120 100 80 60 40 20 0 -20 -40 -60 -80
20
y/y % chg.
% points
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10 -15
-15 CY0 1 0 2
03
04
05
Note: Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October.
Source: Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, "Indices of Industrial Production."
06
07
08
Chart 25
Employee Income (1) Breakdown of Total Cash Earnings1,2,5 2
y/y % chg.
1 0 -1 -2
Special cash earnings (bonuses, etc.) Non-scheduled cash earnings Scheduled cash earnings Total cash earnings
-3 -4 -5 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Scheduled Cash Earnings1,6 y/y % chg. 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Scheduled cash earnings (full-time employees) Scheduled cash earnings (part-time employees) Hourly scheduled cash earnings (part-time employees)
-2 -3 -4 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(3) Breakdown of Employee Income1,2,5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6
y/y % chg.
Total cash earnings Number of regular employees 3 Employee income (Monthly Labour Survey) Employee income (Labour Force Survey)4 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Data are for establishments with at least five employees. 2. Q1 = March-May, Q2 = June-August, Q3 = September-November, Q4 = December-February. 3. Calculated as the number of regular employees (Monthly Labour Survey) times total cash earnings (Monthly Labour Survey). 4. Calculated as the number of employees (Labour Force Survey) times total cash earnings (Monthly Labour Survey). 5. Figures for 2008/Q3 are those of September-October averages. 6. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Monthly Labour Survey"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey."
Chart 26
Labor Market (1) (1) Unemployment Rate and Ratio of Job Offers to Applicants s.a.; %
5.6
s.a.; times Unemployment rate (left scale)
1.1 1.0
5.2
0.9
4.8
0.8
4.4
0.7
4.0
0.6 Ratio of job offers to applicants (right scale)
3.6
0.5 0.4
3.2 CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07
08
(2) New Job Offers and New Job Applicants1 s.a.; 3-month backward moving average; 10 thous. persons/month; 10 thous. applications/month
90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45
New job offers
New job applicants
CY 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
(3) Breakdown of Job Offers1,2,4 30
y/y % chg.
y/y % chg. New job offers (Report on Employment Service) Services Wholesale and retail trade, eating and drinking places Transport and communications Construction Manufacturing
20
45 30
Job advertisements; 3 private sector (right scale)
10
15
0
0 New Standard Industrial Classification basis
-10
-15
-20
-30 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Figures do not include jobs offered to new graduates, but include those offered to part-time workers. 2. Figures up to 2004/Q2 are based on the previous Standard Industrial Classification. Figures from 2004/Q3 are based on the new Standard Industrial Classification. To keep the continuation of the data, some industries from 2004/Q3 are rearranged as follows. "Transport and communications" are the sum of "electricity and gas," "information and communications" and "transport." "Wholesale and retail trade, eating and drinking places" are the sum of "wholesale and retail trade" and "eating and drinking places, accommodations." "Services" are the sum of "medical, health care and welfare," "education, learning support," "compound services" and "services (not elsewhere classified)." 3. Figures are the sum of job advertisements listed in free/paid job information magazines, newspaper inserts and job information websites provided by member companies of the Association. 4. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Report on Employment Service"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey"; Association of Job Information of Japan, "Kyujin Koukoku Keisaikensu (Survey of Job Advertisements)."
Chart 27
Labor Market (2) (1) Number of Employees3 3
y/y % chg.
2 1 0 -1
1
Number of regular employees (Monthly Labour Survey) Part-time employees (Monthly Labour Survey) 1 Full-time employees (Monthly Labour Survey) 1 Number of employees (Labour Force Survey)
-2 -3 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(2) Ratio of Part-Time Employees1,2 27
s.a. ; %
y/y chg.; % points
y/y chg. (right scale) Ratio of part-time employees (left scale)
26
2.4 2.1 1.8
25
1.5
24
1.2 0.9
23
0.6
22
0.3 0.0
21
-0.3 -0.6
20
CY 0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
(3) Non Scheduled Hours Worked1 109
y/y % chg.
CY 2005 = 100; s.a.
10 8
106
6
103
4
100
2
97
0 -2
94 91
Index (left scale)
-4
y/y % chg. (right scale)
-6
88
-8 -10
85 CY 0 0
0 1
0 2
0 3
0 4
0 5
0 6
0 7
0 8
Notes: 1. Data are for establishments with at least five employees. 2. The ratio of part-time employees is calculated as the number of part-time employees divided by the number of regular employees times 100. 3. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October. Sources: Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, "Monthly Labour Survey"; Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Labour Force Survey."
Chart 28
Employment Conditions
(1) Manufacturing Employment DI <"excessive" - "insufficient">, % points 60
40
"Excessive"
20
0
-20 Forecast Large enterprises
Small enterprises
"Insufficient"
-40
-60 CY 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08 09
(2) Nonmanufacturing Employment DI <"excessive" - "insufficient">, % points 40 "Excessive"
20
0
-20 "Insufficient"
Large enterprises
Small enterprises Forecast
-40
-60 CY 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08 09
Note: The Tankan has been revised from the March 2004 survey. Figures up to the December 2003 survey are based on the previous data sets. Figures from the December 2003 survey are on a new basis. Source: Bank of Japan, "Tankan , Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan."
Chart 29
Prices (1) Level 114
CY 2000 = 100
CY 2005 = 100
114
112
112
110
110
108
108
106 104
Consumer price index 1 Consumer price index 1 (general; s.a., right scale) (general, excluding fresh food; s.a., right scale)
106 104
102
102
100
100
98
98 Domestic corporate goods price index (right scale)
96 94
Corporate services price index (left scale)
2
96 94 92
92 CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Changes from a Year Earlier 3 8
y/y % chg.
7 6 5
Domestic corporate goods price index 2005 base
2000 base
4
Consumer price index (general, excluding fresh food)
3 2
Consumer price index (general)
1 0 -1 -2
Corporate services price index
-3 CY 0 0
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes:1. Seasonally adjusted by X-12-ARIMA. 2. Adjusted to exclude a hike in electric power charges during the summer season from July to September. 3. Figures up to CY 2000 are on the 1995 base. From CY2001 up to CY 2005, CGPI and CPI are calculated on the 2000 base.
Sources: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Consumer Price Index"; Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index," "Wholesale Price Indexes," "Corporate Services Price Index."
Chart 30
Import Prices and International Commodity Prices (1) Import Price Index and Overseas Commodity Index CY 2005 = 100
250
Import price index (yen basis) Import price index (contractual currency basis) Bank of Japan Overseas Commodity Index
220 190 160 130 100 70 40 CY
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note: Bank of Japan Overseas Commodity Index is the end-of-month figure.
(2) Import Price Index (Yen Basis, Changes from a Quarter Earlier and 3 Months Earlier) Monthly
Quarterly 20
q/q % chg.
3-month rate of change, %
15
20 15
2005 base
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
Machinery & equipment
Metals & related products
-15
Petroleum, coal & natural gas
Chemicals
-15
-20
Foodstuffs & feedstuffs
Others
-20
-25
Import price index (2005 base)
Import price index (2000 base)
-25
-30
-30 CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07/11 08/1
3
5
7
9
11
Notes: 1. Machinery & equipment: general machinery, electric & electronic products, transportation equipment, precision instruments 2. Figures for 2008/Q4 are October-November averages. Figures for 2007/Q4 on the 2000 base are those of October.
(3) International Commodity Prices 320
Oil : $/bbl , Copper : 100 $/t
CY 2005 = 100
290
Grain Index (left scale)
260
Copper (right scale)
230
Dubai Oil (right scale)
135 120 105 90 75
200
60
170
45
140
30
110
15 0
80 CY
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: 1. The Grain Index is the weighted average of prices of three selected items (wheat, soybeans, corn) in overseas commodity markets. The weights are based on the Value of Imports in the Trade Statistics of Japan. 2. Monthly averages. Figures for December 2008 are the averages up to December 18. Sources: Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index," "Bank of Japan Overseas Commodity Index," etc.
Chart 31
Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index7 (1) Changes from a Year Earlier Quarterly 8
Monthly y/y % chg.
y/y % chg.
8 5
7 6 5 4
Others Electric power, gas & water 1 Goods sensitive to exchange rates and overseas commodity prices Other materials 2 Iron & steel and construction goods 3 Machinery 4 DCGPI (2000 base) DCGPI (2005 base)
7 6 5 4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1 -2
DCGPI (2005 base)
-2
-3
-3
CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Changes from a Quarter Earlier and 3 Months Earlier
07/11 08/1
3
5
9
11
6
Quarterly 4.5
7
Monthly 3-month rate of change, %
q/q % chg.
4.5
3.0
3.0
DCGPI (2005 base)
1.5
1.5
0.0
0.0 Others Electric power, gas & water Goods sensitive to exchange rates and overseas commodity prices Other materials Iron & steel and construction goods Machinery DCGPI (2000 base) DCGPI (2005 base)
-1.5 -3.0 -4.5 CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
-1.5 -3.0 -4.5 08
07/11 08/1
3
5
7
9
11
Notes: 1. Goods sensitive to exchange rates and overseas commodity prices: petroleum & coal products, nonferrous metals. 2. Other materials: chemicals, plastic products, textile products, pulp, paper & related products. 3. Iron & steel and construction goods: iron & steel, metal products, ceramics, stone & clay products, lumber & wood products, scrap & waste. 4. Machinery: electrical machinery, information & communications equipment, electronic components & devices, general machinery, transportation equipment, precision instruments. 5. Others: processed foodstuffs, other manufacturing industry products, agricultural, forestry & fishery products, mining products. 6. Adjusted to exclude a hike in electric power charges during the summer season from July to September. This effect makes the Domestic Corporate Goods Price Index rise by about 0.2%. 7. Figures for 2008/Q4 are October-November averages. Figures for 2007/Q4 on the 2000 base are those of October. Source: Bank of Japan, "Corporate Goods Price Index."
Chart 32
Corporate Services Price Index
Quarterly
2.4
Monthly y/y % chg.
y/y % chg. Other services Leasing and rental Information services Advertising services Communications and broadcasting services Transportation Real estate services Finance and insurance CSPI 1 CSPI (excluding external factors)
2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8
2.4 2.0 1.6 1.2 0.8
0.4
0.4
0.0
0.0
-0.4
-0.4
-0.8
-0.8
-1.2
-1.2
-1.6
-1.6
-2.0
-2.0
-2.4
-2.4 -2.8
-2.8 CY
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07/10
08/1
4
7
10
Notes: 1. External factors: international air passenger transportation, ocean liner, ocean tramper, ocean tanker, oceangoing ship chartering services, and international air freight. Notes: 2. Figures of components indicate contributions to changes in CSPI. Notes: 3. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October. Source: Bank of Japan, "Corporate Services Price Index."
Chart 33
Consumer Price Index (Excluding Fresh Food) (1) Consumer Price Index (Excluding Fresh Food) 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
Monthly
Quarterly
y/y % chg.
y/y % chg.
Public services and electricity, gas & water charges Agricultural & aquatic products (excluding fresh food) General services Goods (excluding agricultural & aquatic products)1 CPI (excluding fresh food, 2005 base) CPI (excluding fresh food, 2000 base) 2 CPI (excluding food and energy) 2005 base CPI
2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
-0.5
-0.5
-1.0
-1.0 CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
(2) Goods (Excluding Agricultural & Aquatic Products) 6
08
07/10
12
08/2
4
6
y/y % chg.
Petroleum products 3 Clothes Others 1, 4 Goods (2005 base)
4
10
1
y/y % chg.
5
8
Durable goods Food products 1, 4 Goods (2000 base)
6 5 4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
2005 base CPI
-3
-3 CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07/10
12
08/2
4
6
8
10
(3) General Services 1.0
y/y % chg.
y/y % chg.
Eating out Other services Private house rent & imputed rent General services (2005 base) 2005 base CPI General services (2000 base)
0.8 0.6
1.0 0.8 0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0
0.0
-0.2
-0.2 -0.4
-0.4 CY 02
03
04
05
06
07
08
07/10
12
08/2
4
6
8
10
Notes: 1. The items are basically the same as the definition published by the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications. However, electricity, gas & water charges are excluded from goods. Notes: 2. Alcoholic beverages are excluded from food. Energy: electricity, gas manufactured & piped, liquefied propane, kerosene, and gasoline. Notes: 3. Including shirts, sweaters & underwear. Notes: 4. Excluding agricultural & aquatic products. Notes: 5. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of October. Source: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications, "Consumer Price Index."
Chart 34
Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions1 (1) Domestic Supply and Demand Conditions for Products and Services (All Enterprises) 10
DI <"Excess demand" - "Excess supply">, % points
0 Forecast
-10
Manufacturing
-20
Nonmanufacturing
"Excess demand"
-30 -40 "Excess supply"
-50 -60 -70 CY 9 0
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08 09 0
(2) Tankan Composite Indicator2 (All Enterprises) and Output Gap3 8
%
reversed, DI <"Excessive" - "Insufficient">, % points
6
-30
Output gap (left scale)
Forecast
Tankan Composite indicator (right scale)
4
-40
2
-20 "Insufficient" -10
0
0
-2
10
-4
20
-6 CY 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
"Excessive"
30 08 009
(3) Change in Output Prices (All Enterprises) 30
DI <"Rise" - "Fall">, % points Manufacturing
20
Forecast
Nonmanufacturing
10
"Rise"
0 -10 -20 -30
"Fall"
-40 -50 CY 90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08 09 0
Notes: 1. The Tankan has been revised from the March 2004 Survey. Figures up to the December 2003 Survey are based on the previous data sets. Figures from the December 2003 Survey are on a new basis. Notes: 2. Figures are weighted averages of Production Capacity DI and Employment DI which show excessiveness. The FY 1990-2006 averages of capital and labor shares in national accounts are used as the weight. Notes: 3. The output gap is estimated by the Research and Statistics Department, Bank of Japan. Since the estimation of the output gap includes various errors, considerable latitude should be allowed for this estimation. Sources: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts"; Bank of Japan, "Tankan , Short-Term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan," etc.
Chart 35 Short-Term Interest Rates
(1) Short-Term Interest Rates 1.0
%
0.9 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 Euroyen interest rate (TIBOR, 3-month) FB rate (3-month) Call rate (overnight, uncollateralized)
0.2 0.1 0.0 1 2 3 CY2007
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
CY2008
(2) Euroyen Interest Rates Futures (3-Month) 1 2.0
%
%
2.0
1.8
Dec. 18, 2008
1.8
1.6
Nov. 20, 2008
1.6
1.4
Oct. 6, 2008
1.4
1.2
1.2
1.0
1.0
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.6
0.4
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.0 Spot
0.0 1 period 2 periods 3 periods 4 periods 5 periods 6 periods 7 periods 8 periods 9 periods ahead ahead ahead ahead ahead ahead ahead ahead ahead
Note: 1. Contract months in the figure (2) exclude "serial months," the months other than March, June, September and December. Sources: Japanese Bankers Association; Japan Bond Trading Co., Ltd.; Tokyo Financial Exchange; Bank of Japan.
Chart 36 Global Money Markets
(1) LIBOR-OIS spreads (3-month) 4.0
% U.S. dollar Euro Yen
3.5 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
CY2007
1 2 3 CY2008
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
4
5
6
7
8
9 10 11 12
(2) FX swap implied dollar rate - LIBOR spreads (3-month) 3.5
% U.S. dollar/Yen Euro/U.S. dollar
3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 1 2 3 CY2007
4
5
6
7
8
Sources: Bloomberg; Meitan Tradition.
9 10 11 12
1 2 3 CY2008
Chart 37 Long-Term Interest Rates (1) Japanese Government Bond Yields1 3.5
%
% 2.2 10-Year 5-Year
3.0
2.0 1.8 1.6
2.5
1.4 2.0
1.2 1.0
1.5
0.8 1.0
0.6 0.4
0.5 0.2 0.0
0.0 CY 04
05
06
07
08
9 10 CY2008
11
12
(2) Overseas Government Bond Yields (10-Year) 5.5
%
% 4.3 United States
5.0
4.1
Germany
3.9 3.7
4.5
3.5 4.0
3.3 3.1
3.5
2.9 3.0
2.7 2.5
2.5 2.3 2.1
2.0 CY 04
05
06
07
Note: 1. Yields on newly issued bonds. Sources: Japan Bond Trading Co., Ltd; Bloomberg.
08
9 CY2008
10
11
12
Chart 38 Yields of Corporate Bonds (1) Corporate Bond Yields1,2 4.0
%
% 4.0 AA-rated A-rated BBB-rated
3.5
3.5
3.0
3.0
2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.5
1.0 0.5
1.0
0.0
0.5
CY 04
05
06
07
08
9 10 CY2008
11
12
(2) Spreads of Corporate Bond Yields over Government Bond Yields1,2 3.0
% points
% points AA-rated A-rated BBB-rated
2.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
2.0
1.5
1.5
1.0
1.0
0.5
0.5
0.0
0.0
CY 04
05
06
07
08
9 10 CY2008
11
Notes: 1. Yields on bonds with 5-year maturity. Yields on corporate bonds have been calculated on the expanded pool of issues with maturity of three to seven years. 2. The indicated ratings are of Rating and Investment Information, Inc. Sources: Japan Securities Dealers Association, "Reference Price (Yields) Table for OTC Bond Transactions."
12
Chart 39 Stock Prices (1) Japanese Stock Prices 20
thous. yen
points
Nikkei 225 Stock Average (left scale)
18
2,200 13
points
thous. yen
2,000 12
16
1,800
14
1,600
1,400 1,300
11
1,200
10
1,100
9
1,000
8
900
1,400
12 10
1,200
8
1,000 TOPIX (right scale)
6
800
7
800
4
600
6
700
CY 04
05
06
07
9 10 CY2008
08
11
12
(2) Overseas Stock Prices 15
points
thous. dollar
14 13
600
500
12
450
11
400
10
350
9
300
8
250 Dow Jones EuroSTOXX (right scale)
6 CY 04
06
07
380
08
11
340
10
300
9
260
8
220
7
180
200 150
05
points
thous. dollar
550
Dow Jones Industrial Average (left scale)
7
12
9 10 CY2008
Sources: The Nihon Keizai Shimbun ; Tokyo Stock Exchange; Bloomberg.
11
12
Chart 40 Exchange Rates
(1) Bilateral Exchange Rates 80
Yen
Yen
90
80 90
100 100 110
Appreciation of the yen
110
120 130
120
140
130 Depreciation 140 of the yen
150 160 U.S. dollar/Yen 170
150
Euro/Yen
180
160
CY 04
05
06
07
08
9 10 CY2008
11
12
(2) Nominal Effective Exchange Rates start of 2004 = 100
start of Sep. 2008 = 100
120 115 110
Yen U.S. dollar Euro
135 130 125
105
120
100 115 95 110 90 105
85
100
80 75
95
70
90
CY 04
05
06
07
08
9 10 CY2008
Sources: Bank of Japan; Federal Reserve System; European Central Bank.
11
12
Chart 41 Corporate Finance-Related Indicators (1) Financial Position
<Japan Finance Corporation Survey>
DI("Easy" - "Tight"), % points
30
10
DI, % points
Large enterprises
Small enterprises 2,3
Small enterprises
20
0 Micro businesses 4
10
-10
0
-20
-10
-30
-20
-40
-30
-50
CY 9 0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
CY 9 0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
06
08
(2) Lending Attitude of Financial Institutions as Perceived by Firms
<Japan Finance Corporation Survey>
DI("Accommodative" - "Severe"), % points 60
DI, % points Small enterprises 2,5
50
30
Micro businesses
6
40
20 30
10
20
0
10
-10
0 -10
-20 -20
Large enterprises
-30
-30
Small enterprises
-40 CY 9 0
-40 92
94
96
98
00
02
04
06
08
CY 9 0
92
94
96
98
00
02
04
Notes: 1. Data of the Tankan are based on all industries. The Tankan has been revised from the March 2004 survey. Figures up to the December 2003 survey are based on the previous data sets. Figures from the December 2003 survey are on a new basis. 2. Figures are quarterly averages of monthly data. Figures for 2008/Q4 are those of Oct.-Nov. averages. 3. DI of "Easy" - "Tight." 4. DI of "Easier" - "Tighter." 5. DI of "Accommodative" - "Severe." 6. DI of "More accommodative" - "More severe." Sources: Bank of Japan, "Tankan, Short-term Economic Survey of Enterprises in Japan"; Japan Finance Corporation, "Monthly Survey of Small Businesses in Japan," "Quarterly Survey of Small Businesses in Japan (for micro businesses)."
Chart 42 Lending Rates
4
%
%
4
Average contracted interest rate on new loans and discounts (short-term) Average contracted interest rate on new loans and discounts (long-term)
3
3
2
2
1
1
Short-term prime lending rate 1
0 CY
0 00
01
02
03
Note: 1. Data are at end of period. Source: Bank of Japan.
04
05
06
07
08
Chart 43 Lending by Financial Institutions (1) Lending by Domestic Commercial Banks1 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7 CY
y/y % chg.
y/y % chg. Lending by domestic commercial banks 2 Lending by domestic commercial banks2 (adjusted 3)
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 -2 -3 -4 -5 -6 -7
08
Notes: 1. Percent changes in average amounts outstanding from a year earlier. 2. "Domestic commercial banks" refers to city banks, regional banks, and regional banks II. 3. Adjusted to exclude (1) fluctuations due to the liquidation of loans, (2) fluctuations in the yen value of foreign currency-denominated loans due to changes in exchange rates, (3) fluctuations due to loan write-offs, (4) the transfer of loans to the former Japan National Railways Settlement Corporation to the General Account, and (5) the transfer of loans to the former Housing Loan Administration Corporation to the Resolution and Collection Corporation.
(2) Lending by Other Financial Institutions 10
end of period, y/y % chg.
end of period, y/y % chg. Japan finance corporation (Micro business and individual unit) Japan finance corporation (Small and medium enterprise unit) Life insurance companies
5
10
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15 CY
-15 00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: The figures of the Japan Finance Corporation (Small and Medium Enterprise Unit) exclude the amounts outstanding of lending to the Credit Guarantee Corporations.
Source: Bank of Japan, Japan Finance Corporation, The Life Insurance Association of Japan.
Chart 44 Private-Sector Fund-Raising in the Capital Markets (1) Amount Outstanding of Commercial Paper 20
end of period, y/y % chg.
end of period, y/y % chg.
20
15
15
10
10
5
5
0
0
-5
-5
-10
-10
-15
-15
-20 CY
-20 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note: Figures are those of short-term corporate bonds registered at the book-entry transfer system. Those issued by banks, securities companies and others such as foreign corporations are excluded; ABCPs are included. Figures before March 2008 are those compiled by the Bank of Japan.
(2) Amount Outstanding of Corporate Bonds 7
end of period, y/y % chg.
end of period, y/y % chg.
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
-1
-1
-2
-2
-3
CY
-3 01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note: The figures of percentage changes from the previous year of the amount outstanding of corporate bonds are calculated given the following: (1) The sum of straight bonds issued in both domestic and overseas markets is used. (2) Bonds issued by banks are included. (3) Domestic bonds are those registered at the book-entry transfer system. The series is spliced at April 2008 with the one published by the Japan Securities Dealers Association. Sources: Japan Securities Depository Center, "Issue, Redemption and Outstanding" (for Corporate Bonds), "Outstanding Amounts of CP by Issuer's category"; Bank of Japan, "Principal Figures of Financial Institutions"; Japan Securities Dealers Association, "Issuing, Redemption and Outstanding Amounts of Bonds"; I-N Information Systems, "Funding Eye."
Chart 45 Money Stock (1) Changes from a Year Earlier 7
%
% Broadly-defined liquidity (left scale) M3 (left scale) M2 (left scale) M1 (right scale)
6 5
35 30 25
4
20
3
15
2
10
1
5
0
0
-1
-5
CY
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Ratio of Money Stock to Nominal GDP 300
%, s.a.
%, s.a.
200
280
180
260
160
240
140
220
120
200
100
180
80
160
Broadly-defined liquidity (left scale)
60
140
M3 (left scale)
40
M2 (right scale)
120
20
M1 (right scale)
0
100 CY 9 5
96
97
98
99
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Notes: 1. M1 consists of cash currency and demand deposits; both M2 and M3 consist of cash currency, demand deposits, time deposits and CDs. 2. Financial institutions surveyed for M1 and M3 include the Japan Post Bank and OFIs (other financial institutions) in addition to those for M2. 3. The current series are spliced by the former series at March 2003. 4. Figures for money stock in 2008/Q4 are those of Oct.-Nov. averages, and the nominal GDP in 2008/Q4 is assumed to be unchanged from the previous quarter. Sources: Cabinet Office, "National Accounts"; Bank of Japan.
Chart 46 Corporate Bankruptcies (1) Number of Cases cases
2,000
cases
2,000
1,800
1,800
1,600
1,600
1,400
1,400
1,200
1,200
1,000
1,000
800
800
600
600
CY
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
(2) Amount of Liabilities 9
tril. yen
tril. yen
9
8
8
7
7
6
6
5
5
4
4
3
3
2
2
1
1
0
0
CY
00
01
02
03
04
05
06
07
08
Note: Bold lines are the six-month moving average. Source: Tokyo Shoko Research Ltd., "Tosan Geppo (Monthly Review of Corporate Bankruptcies)."
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