Mick Meyer - Remote Sensing Validation Of Smoke Emission And Dispersion Models In The Australian Savanna

Remote sensing validation of smoke emission and dispersion in the Australian savanna

Mick Meyer, Ross Mitchell, Ashok Luhar, Sue Campbell, Yi Qin, John Gras, and Dave Parry (CDU)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

In 2006: 66 Mha 16% of NT,10% of WA, 6% of Qld. 8% of Australia 80,000,000

predicted best estimate

70,000,000

Area (ha)

60,000,000 50,000,000 40,000,000 30,000,000 20,000,000 10,000,000 1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

Year

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

• Major emission source of greenhouse gases. • 8% CH4 • 25% N2O • 45% NOx • 65% CO • 55% VOC C emissions equivalent to 85% of NGGI • Major source of semi-volatile air toxics e.g. dioxins (NDP inventory: 70% national emissions to air, 85% emissions to land), PAH, • Major source of particulates The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Issues: • Accuracy of the inventory methodologies • Impacts. • Who is affected • Where does the smoke go • What are the impacts

The problem is verification at the regional scale How do we do it: Transform an annual regional emissions total into spatially resolved timeseries that can be compared with point observations The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Emission = Fuel burned x emission factor Fuelburned = Area x fuel load x combustion efficiency Crutzen, Seiler and Crutzen, 1980

This is ok, when the all the parameters are on consistent spatial and temporal scales. For TAPM the timescale is hourly, the grid size 10 km 2

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Emission parameter(1) Fire Area Scars at 10-day resolution -> area at 1hr resolution

Hotspots outside scars

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Diurnal Emission Function Emission function fi,h

0.1

2004

Domain Centre

April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

0.08

0.06

0.04

0.02

0 0

3

6

9

Emission func ction fi,h

12

15

18

21

24

Hour of day (i)

0.1 April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

0.08

0.06

0.04

Use McArthur fire spread model

Jabiru

Forced by TAPM wind, temperature and RH

0.02

0 0

3

6

9

Emission function fi,h

12

15

18

21

24

Hour of day (i)

0.1 April May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov.

0.08

0.06

0.04

Darwin

0.02

0 0

3

6

9

12

15

18

21

24

Hour of day (i)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Emission Parameter (2) : Fuel load Annual is ok for a first cut: Carbon loading (FC) - kg C ha-1

8700 Darwin

8600

3000

Jabiru

Northing (km)

8500

2500

8400

Grid Centre

2000

8300 8200

1500

8100 1000

8000 7900 -200 -100

0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Easting (km)

VAST1.2 (Barrett)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

PM2.5 Emissions (kg ha-1) 8700

PM2.5 (kg ha-1), April - May 04

(a)

8700

PM2.5 (kg ha-1), June - July 04

(b)

30

8600

Darwin

8600

Jabiru

Darwin

25 20

8400 Grid Centre

8300

10

8100

5

8000

0

7900 -200 -100

0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

8400

15

8200

8200 8100 8000 7900 -200 -100

8600

Darwin

8700

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 PM2.5 (kg ha-1), Oct. - Nov. 04

(d)

8600

Jabiru

8500

Darwin

Jabiru

8500

8400 Grid Centre

8300 8200

Northing (km)

Northing (km)

0

Easting (km)

PM2.5 (kg ha-1), Aug. - Sept. 04

(c)

Grid Centre

8300

Easting (km) 8700

Jabiru

8500

Northing (km)

Northing (km)

8500

8400

8200

8100

8100

8000

8000

7900

Grid Centre

8300

7900

-200 -100

0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Easting (km)

-200 -100

0

100 200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900

Easting (km)

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Mean Surface concentration of PM2.5 8800

PM2.5 (µg m-3), June - July 04

8800

PM2.5 (µg m-3), April - May 04

(a)

(b) 35

35

Darwin

8600

30

Jabiru

25

8400

20 15

Northing (km)

Northing (km)

8600

Darwin

30

Jabiru

25

8400

20 15 10

8200 10

8200

5

5

8000

8000 -200

-200

0

200

400

600

0

200

800

400

600

800

Easting (km)

Easting (km) (d) PM2.5 (µg m-3), Oct. - Nov. 04

8800

PM2.5 (µg m-3), Aug. - Sept. 04

8800

35

(c) 35

Darwin

30

Jabiru

25

8400

20 15

Northing (km)

Northing (km)

8600

8600

Darwin

30

Jabiru

25

8400

20 15 10

8200

5

10

8200

5

8000

8000

-200

0

200

400

600

800

Easting (km) -200

0

200

400

Easting (km)

600

800

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Verification

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Dispersion: observation and modelled

12/09/04

25/09/04

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Verification: Surface Concentrations of PM2.5 50

Casuarina PM2.5 Obs. PM2.5 model

40

60

24-h PM2.5 (µg m-3)

(a) 30

20

2007

Darwin, May-Oct, 07 Model Data

40

Air NEPM 20

10 0

24-h TAPM PM2.5 concentration (µg m-3)

50

(b)

Casuarina

40

30

20

01/1 2/04

01/1 1/04

01/1 0/04

01/0 9/04

01/0 8/04

01/0 7/04

01/0 6/04

01/0 5/04

Date

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100 110 120 130 140 150 160 170 180 190

Day number 50

Modelled 24-h PM2.5 concentration (µg m-3)

10

0 01/0 4/04

24-h PM2.5 concentration (µg m-3)

(a)

(b) 40

30

20

10 Y = 0.92 * X - 0.48

r = 0.69 0 0

10

20

30

40

50

Observed 24-h PM2.5 concentration (µg m-3)

10

r = 0.39 0 0

10

20

30

40

24-h PM2.5 concentration (µg m-3)

50

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Darwin

Jabiru

Lake Argyle

• Characterisation of continental aerosol types • Affiliated with Aerosol Robotic Network ( NASA) • Validation of models and satellite retrievals

Verification- surface obs of AOD 0.8 Jabiru (500 nm) Model

(a)

Derived from • integrated to 8 km

AOD

• volume extinction coefficient

0.6

0.4

0.2

• scattering

01/1 2/04

01/1 1/04

01/1 0/04

01/0 9/04

01/0 8/04

07/0 4

Darwin (500 nm) Model

0.4

0.2

Date

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

/04 01/1 2

/04 01/1 1

/04 01/1 0

/04 01/0 9

/04 01/0 8

/04 01/0 7

/04 01/0 6

/04 01/0 5

/04

0 01/0 4

• PM10 estimated from surface PM2.5 (PM10= 1.15*PM2.5+6.5)

(b)

AOD

• mass concentration

01/

0.6

• absorption • black carbon = 9% aerosol mass • absorption efficiency=10 m2 g-1

01/0 5/04

01/0 4/04

• mass extinction coefficient • aerosol growth with RH

01/0 6/04

0

Comparison of total C emissions with inventory estimates

Study

Year

Carbon emitted (Tg C yr-1)

NT domain estimate: • 68 Tg C

Regional emissions – Top End This study NGGI Methodology GFED2 Australia NGGI methodology (savanna) GFED2 NGGI methodology GFED2 Ito and Penner (2004): grasslands and woodlands

2004 2004 2004

67.6 64.3 (40 – 105) 57

2004 2004

115 (74 – 177) 127

2000 2000

110 (74 – 155) 157

2000

46 – 62

• 0.7 Tg PM2.5

Carbon emission from forest fires in 2000 = 3.2 Tg C 2004 = 5.6 Tg C

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Impacts

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Total NEPM exceedences 2004

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

0

-2

-4

-6

Mean = - 1.8 W m-2

Date

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

01/ 1 1/04

01/ 1 0/04

01/ 0 9/04

01/ 0 8/04

01/ 0 7/04

01/ 0 6/04

01/ 0 5/04

-8 01/ 0 4/04

Aerosol rad diative forcing (W m-2)

Radiative Forcing

Global aerosol radiative forcing

Source SO4-NO3OC OC BC BC OC/BC

Emission 92-127 TgS fossil fuels biofuels fossil fuels biofuels fires

2.2-2.4 7.5 2.8-5.6 3.3 11-17

Tg C TgC TgC TgC TgC

Radiative forcing -0.4±0.2 -0.1±0.1 -0.05±0.03 0.2±0.15 0.03±0.12

From IPCC 4th Assessment Report

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

What next • Compare against Modis AOD Modis Aqua

04/10/04

Modelled

Initially AOD retrieved from Modis was a bit dodgy for Australia (overestimates by a factor of 2 compared to sun photometers) Recent improvements by Ross Mitchell and Yi Qin The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Conclusions The emission estimates are in the right order- Good News Where the work is developing • Improved emissions estimates • Fire occurrence • Rate of spread, intensity • Seasonality in emission factors

• Comparison with ground-based AOD across a wider domain and time scale • Comparison with satellite derived AOD and other tracers

The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology

Thank you [email protected] Atmospheric Environment 42 (2008) 1629–1646 Atmospheric Environment 42 (2008) 1647–1664 The Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research A partnership between CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology