Meet the Money 2009
Hotel Values and Cap Rates
Suzanne Mellen,
MAI, CRE, FRICS, ISHC
Managing Director
HVS San Francisco and Las Vegas
[email protected] Office: 415-268-0351
© 2009 HVS
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Major Sales Transactions (> $10 Million) Year
Number of Hotels
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
130 56 70 53 108 147 227 280 241 128 150 105 106 142 189 331 270 252 114 45 5
YTD 4/30/09 YTD 4/30/10
Avg. Price Per Room % Change -56.9 % 25.0 -24.3 103.8 36.1 54.4 23.3 -13.9 -46.9 17.2 -30.0 1.0 34.0 33.1 75.1 -18.4 -6.7 -54.8
$136,000 96,000 82,000 93,000 81,000 80,000 106,000 117,000 136,000 148,000 116,000 146,000 111,581 132,944 136,056 168,225 201,935 192,566 176,067
-29.4 % -14.6 13.4 -12.9 -1.2 32.5 10.4 16.2 8.8 -21.6 25.9 -23.6 19.1 2.3 23.6 20.0 -4.6 -8.6
N/A 88.9 %
183,135 265,900
N/A 45.2 %
2
Major Hotel Sales Transactions 350
$300,000
300
$250,000
250
$200,000
200 $150,000 150 $100,000
100
$50,000
50
$0
Ye ar 19 90 19 91 19 92 19 93 19 94 19 95 19 96 19 97 19 98 19 99 20 00 20 01 20 02 20 03 20 04 20 05 20 06 20 07 YT D 20 YT 4 /3 08 D 0 /0 4/ 9 30 /1 0
0
Number
© 2009 HVS
Avg. Price
3
Sales Not Good Indicator of Value • Not enough recent transactions to provide guidance on price per room or cap rates • When transactions do pick up they will require full investigation regarding terms of the deal and seller financing • Sales transactions will help to set new valuation parameters, but will be difficult to use for individual property valuations, as always. • Jump in average sales price per room through April 2009 due to three high per room sales, including the Hyatt in Boston and Treasure Island in Las Vegas – a misleading trend.
4
Q 1s tr 1 t Q 99 3r tr 1 4 d Q 99 1s tr 1 5 t Q 99 3r tr 1 5 d Q 99 6 1s tr 1 t Q 99 3r tr 1 6 d Q 99 7 1s tr 1 t Q 99 3r tr 1 7 d Q 99 1s tr 1 8 t Q 99 3r tr 1 8 d Q 99 9 1s tr 1 t Q 99 3r tr 2 9 d Q 00 0 1s tr 2 t Q 00 3r tr 2 0 d Q 00 1s tr 2 1 t Q 00 3r tr 2 1 d Q 00 1s tr 2 2 t Q 00 3r tr 2 2 d Q 00 3 1s tr 2 t Q 00 3r tr 2 3 d Q 00 4 1s tr 2 t Q 00 3r tr 2 4 d Q 00 1s tr 2 5 t Q 00 3r tr 2 5 d Q 00 1s tr 2 6 t Q 00 3r tr 2 6 d Q 00 7 1s tr 2 t Q 00 3r tr 2 7 d Q 00 8 1s tr 2 t Q 00 tr 8 20 09
3r d
Capitalization Rate Comparison PWC – Korpacz Investor Survey Cap Rate Com parison
14.0
13.0
12.0
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
Quarter
© 2009 HVS
Regional Mall CBD Office Suburban Office
Full-Service Lodging Limited-Service Lodging Luxury Lodging Apartment
5
Investor Survey Data • Investor survey data often lag the market and do not provide a good basis for determining capitalization or discount rates for hotel valuation when a market is in transition or at extremes • They did not reflect how low cap rates went in the 2005 through 2007 period, or how high they are going now • Hotel cap rates remain above those for other commercial real estate; risk premium likely to increase after this recession. 6
Cap Rates Derived from Key Operating and Balance Sheet Data for Publicly Traded Hotel REITS - Last 12 Mos.
Based on Value as of 3/02/09 Net Debt as Net Inc./ a % of Enterprise Value Enterprise Value (Current Cap Rate)
Cap Rate As of September 9, 2008
Cap Rate As of September 7, 2007
Cap Rate As of May 9, 2007
Lodging REITs HOST HOTELS & RESORTS HOSPITALITY PROPERTIES SUNSTONE HOTEL INVESTORS LASALLE HOTEL PROPS STRATEGIC H & R FELCOR LODGING TRUST DIAMONDROCK HOSPITALITY AVERAGES
© 2009 HVS
79% 69% 94% 78% 83% 76% 78%
15.4% 13.7% 11.9% 13.4% 9.6% 13.2% 12.8%
8.7% 10.4% 9.6% 8.8% 8.0% 10.4% 9.5%
6.1% 6.4% 5.9% 5.6% 4.6% 6.5% 5.0%
5.2% 6.0% 5.1% 4.8% 4.0% 5.7% 3.9%
80%
12.8%
9.3%
5.7%
5.0%
7
Historical Cap Rates – Select Set of Full Service Hotels Year 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Cap Rate based on Historical NOI 9.1 9.5 8.0 6.4 4.8 8.5 5.7 7.0 7.0 9.3 8.8 10.3 9.2 8.2 8.9 7.9 5.8 5.2 5.5 6.0 6.6
Cap Rate based on 1st Yr. Projected NOI 9.7 9.4 10.0 8.9 7.7 12.0 8.3 11.1 9.8 10.5 9.7 11.4 10.4 9.8 9.8 8.2 7.4 6.9 5.7 6.8 5.3
Free and Clear Discount Rate 14.7 17.6 15.1 19.4 15.1 20.8 14.8 14.1 13.5 15.4 14.5 15.5 14.0 14.6 13.6 14.0 12.2 11.4 10.8 11.6 11.9
Equity Yield 21.4 28.8 22.4 24.0 21.9 34.3 21.8 20.5 21.4 23.9 22.2 24.9 21.0 22.2 21.0 21.4 19.7 19.7 18.9 21.3 20.0
Source: HVS San Francisco © 2009 HVS
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Cap Rates Derived From Sales • Cap rates were derived from hotels that sold at the time that they were being appraised by HVS • Cap rates reached an historic low in the 2004 through 2007 period • Cap rates for full service hotels averaged 5% to 6% on trailing twelve NOI, and 6% to 7% on projected 1st year NOI • Income being cap’d was at peak, resulting in overinflated values • Cap rate on forward looking NOI is now below rate on historical NOI due to near term depressed income.
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Capitalization and Discount Rates – Select Set of Full Service Hotels 40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Free and Clear Discount Rate
Equity Yield
Cap Rate based on Historical NOI
Cap Rate based on 1st Yr. Projected NOI
HVS San Francisco © 2009 HVS
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Q 1s tr 1 t Q 99 4 3r tr 1 d 99 Q 5 1s tr 1 t Q 99 5 3r tr 1 d 99 Q 6 1s tr 1 t Q 99 6 3r tr 1 d 99 Q 7 1s tr 1 t Q 99 7 3r tr 1 d 99 Q 8 1s tr 1 9 tQ 9 8 3r tr 1 d 99 Q 9 1s tr 1 t Q 99 9 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 0 1s tr 2 t Q 00 0 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 1 1s tr 2 t Q 00 1 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 2 1s tr 2 t Q 00 2 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 3 1s tr 2 t Q 00 3 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 4 1s tr 2 t Q 00 4 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 5 1s tr 2 t Q 00 5 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 6 1s tr 2 t Q 00 6 3r tr 2 d 00 Q 7 1s tr 2 t Q 00 7 3r tr 2 d 00 Q tr 8 20 08
3r d
Rates
Hotel Mortgage and T-Bill Rates 10-Year T-Bill Yields and Hotel Mortgage Interest Rates
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.0
5.0
4.0
3.0
Source: ACLI and HVS
© 2009 HVS
Hotel Mortgage Int. Rate 10-year T-Bill
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Debt Component More Expensive and Less Available • Hotel mortgage interest rates for transactions over $10 million have risen dramatically • 8% to double digit interest rates are being quoted at extraordinarily low loan-to-value ratios of 30% to 50% • Weighted cost of capital has risen due to higher interest rates and the need for more equity to consummate a deal • Underwriting standards are so stringent that many deals may need to be on an all cash basis until the credit markets and hotel cash flow normalizes
12
U.S. CMBS Volume by Year What will replace the CMBS debt that provided so much liquidity to the market?
Can hotel values fully recover without a comparable replacement of debt capital?
Year
Total U.S. Issuance $ (+000)
Percent Change
1997
$36,979,700
--
1998
$74,331,700
102.0%
1999
$56,571,100
-23.9%
2000
$46,894,400
-17.1%
2001
$67,149,900
43.2%
2002
$52,073,600
-22.5%
2003
$77,848,100
49.5%
2004
$93,216,400
19.7%
2005
$168,734,500
81.0%
2006
$202,654,100
20.1%
2007
$230,193,300
13.6%
2008
$12,146,000
-94.7%
Source: Commercial Mortgage Alert © 2009 HVS
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Sample Valuation - Forecast of Income and Expense Historical Operating Results 2008/09 421 63% $172.00 $107.84 366 128,075 %Gross PAR POR
Number of Rooms: Occupancy: Average Rate: RevPAR: Days Open: Occupied Rooms: REVENUE $16,564 62.5 % Rooms Food 6,922 26.1 Beverage 2,209 8.3 Telephone 31 0.1 Other Income 763 2.9 Total Revenues 26,489 100.0 DEPARTMENTAL EXPENSES * 4,425 26.7 Rooms Food & Beverage 6,513 71.3 Telephone 27 87.3 Other Expenses 426 55.8 Total 11,391 43.0 DEPARTMENTAL INCOME 15,098 57.0 UNDISTRIBUTED OPERATING EXPENSES 1,851 7.0 Administrative & General Marketing 1,584 6.0 Franchise Fee 994 3.8 Prop. Operations & Maint. 1,221 4.6 Utilities 949 3.6 Total 6,599 24.9 HOUSE PROFIT 8,499 32.1 Management Fee 795 3.0 INCOME BEFORE FIXED CHARGES 7,704 29.1 FIXED EXPENSES 756 2.9 Property Taxes Insurance 363 1.4 Reserve for Replacement 1,060 4.0 Total 2,179 8.2 NET INCOME $5,526 20.9 %
$39,344 $129.33 16,442 54.05 5,247 17.25 73 0.24 1,812 5.96 62,919 206.82
2009/10 421 58% $154.68 $89.71 365 89,126 %Gross
PAR
$13,786 59.4 % $32,746 6,544 28.2 15,543 2,088 9.0 4,960 29 0.1 68 747 3.2 1,775 23,194 100.0 55,092
POR $154.68 73.42 23.43 0.32 8.38 260.24
2010/11 421 62% $159.01 $98.59 365 95,272 %Gross
PAR
$15,149 60.1 % $35,983 7,013 27.8 16,658 2,238 8.9 5,316 31 0.1 74 777 3.1 1,845 25,208 100.0 59,876
POR $159.01 73.61 23.49 0.33 8.15 264.59
2011/12 421 66% $166.64 $109.98 365 101,419 %Gross
PAR
$16,901 60.9 % $40,145 7,572 27.3 17,985 2,416 8.7 5,740 34 0.1 81 816 2.9 1,937 27,739 100.0 65,888
POR $166.65 74.66 23.83 0.33 8.04 273.51
Stabilized 421 68% $176.64 $120.12 365 104,492 %Gross $18,458 61.8 % 7,978 26.7 2,546 8.5 36 0.1 848 2.8 29,866 100.0
10,511 15,470 64 1,012 27,057 35,862
34.55 50.85 0.21 3.33 88.94 117.88
3,890 6,359 26 424 10,699 12,495
28.2 73.7 91.1 56.7 46.1 53.9
9,241 15,104 62 1,007 25,413 29,679
43.65 71.35 0.29 4.76 120.04 140.19
4,169 6,629 27 435 11,261 13,947
27.5 71.7 87.8 56.0 44.7 55.3
9,903 15,746 65 1,033 26,747 33,129
43.76 69.58 0.29 4.56 118.19 146.39
4,502 6,976 29 450 11,956 15,782
26.6 69.8 84.9 55.2 43.1 56.9
10,693 16,569 68 1,070 28,400 37,488
44.39 68.78 0.28 4.44 117.89 155.62
4,743 7,261 30 465 12,499 17,367
25.7 69.0 83.6 54.9 41.9 58.1
4,397 3,762 2,361 2,900 2,254 15,674 20,188 1,888 18,300
14.45 12.37 7.76 9.53 7.41 51.52 66.36 6.20 60.16
1,643 1,406 827 1,082 885 5,843 6,652 696 5,956
7.1 6.1 3.6 4.7 3.8 25.3 28.6 3.0 25.6
3,902 3,339 1,965 2,570 2,102 13,878 15,800 1,653 14,148
18.43 15.77 9.28 12.14 9.93 65.56 74.64 7.81 66.83
1,730 1,481 909 1,118 914 6,152 7,796 756 7,039
6.9 5.9 3.6 4.4 3.6 24.4 30.9 3.0 27.9
4,110 3,517 2,159 2,655 2,172 14,612 18,517 1,796 16,720
18.16 15.54 9.54 11.73 9.60 64.57 81.82 7.94 73.89
1,842 1,576 1,014 1,167 955 6,555 9,227 832 8,395
6.6 5.7 3.7 4.2 3.4 23.6 33.3 3.0 30.3
4,376 3,745 2,409 2,773 2,268 15,570 21,918 1,977 19,941
18.16 15.54 10.00 11.51 9.42 64.63 90.98 8.21 82.78
1,916 1,640 1,107 1,214 993 6,870 10,497 896 9,601
6.4 5.5 3.7 4.1 3.3 23.0 35.1 3.0 32.1
1,796 862 2,517 5,175 $13,126
5.90 2.83 8.27 17.01 $43.15
819 164 928 1,911 $4,045
3.5 1,944 0.7 391 4.0 2,204 8.2 4,539 17.4 % $9,609
9.18 1.84 10.41 21.44 $45.39
835 168 1,008 2,011 $5,028
3.3 1,983 0.7 398 4.0 2,395 8.0 4,777 19.9 % $11,944
8.76 1.76 10.58 21.11 $52.78
860 173 1,110 2,142 $6,253
3.1 2,043 0.6 410 4.0 2,636 7.7 5,089 22.6 % $14,853
8.48 1.70 10.94 21.12 $61.65
886 178 1,195 2,258 $7,342
3.0 0.6 4.0 7.6 24.5 %
* Departmental expenses are expressed as a percentage of departmental revenues.
© 2009 HVS
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Valuation of Sample Hotel at Market Peak (2007)
Valuation Input Stabilized Year 3 Inflation 3.0% Loan/Value 75% Amortization 30 Years Term 10 Years Interest Rate 6.5% Terminal Cap Rate 8.5% Transaction Costs 2.0% Equity Yield 18.0%
© 2009 HVS
Value (Say) Value per Room Overall Discount Rate Cap Rate - Historical NOI Cap Rate - 1st Year NOI
$96,830,000 96,800,000 $230,000 10.57% 6.6% 6.3%
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Value Based on Current More Onerous Investment Parameters
Valuation Input Stabilized Year 4 Inflation 3% Loan/Value 45% Amortization 25 Years Term 10 Years Interest Rate 9.0% Terminal Cap Rate 9.5% Transaction Costs 2.0% Equity Yield 19.0%
© 2009 HVS
Valuation Output Value Value per Room Overall Discount Rate Cap Rate - Historical NOI Cap Rate - 1st Yr. NOI Mortgage @ 45% Mortgage Per Room Annual Debt Service Debt Coverage Ratio -Yr.1
$56,600,000 $134,442 15.5% 10.7% 7.1% $25,471,574 $60,503 $2,565,000 1.58
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Change in Value at Current Rates Investment Parameters and Resultant Values
Valuation Inputs: Interest Rate Loan-to-Value Eq. IRR Terminal Cap Rate
Recent Peak Value Mid-2007
% Change Current Recent Peak Available to Current Rates Available
6.5% 75% 18.0% 8.5%
9.0% 45% 19.0% 9.5%
$230,000 10.5% 7.5%
$134,000 15.5% 12.5%
6.6% 6.3%
10.7% 7.1%
Valuation Outputs: Value Per Room Discount Rate Implied Cap Rate Derived Cap Rate: Historical NOI 1st Year Proj. NOI
© 2009 HVS
-41.7%
17
Assumed Refinancing in Future Moderates Value Loss
• Most hotel buyers that pay all cash or obtain financing at a low LTV will anticipate refinancing when cash flow recovers and debt market normalizes • 10 year DCR model assumes a refinancing at the end of a stabilized year of operation • Overall discount rate for the current value declines from 15.5% with no refinancing to 13.5% with an assumed refinancing • It is anticipated that many hotels will require four to six years to recover lost revenue and NOI 18
Stabilized Value – Normalized Lending Value at end of stabilized year (year 4) based on forward looking cash flow from year 5 Valuation Input Stabilized Year 4 Inflation 3% Loan/Value 70% Amortization 25 Years Term 10 Years Interest Rate 7.5% Terminal Cap Rate 9.5% Transaction Costs 2.0% Equity Yield 19.0%
© 2009 HVS
Valuation Output Value Value per Room Overall Discount Rate Cap Rate - Historical NOI Cap Rate - 1st Yr. NOI Mortgage @ 70% Mortgage Per Room Annual Debt Service Debt Coverage Ratio Yr.1
$81,700,000 $194,062 11.9% 9.0% 9.3% $57,187,243 $135,837 $5,071,000 1.49
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Refinancing Proceeds Refinancing Based on Stabilized Value at End of Year 4 Based on Year 5 Cash Flow Going Forward in Ten Year DCF
Stabilized Year Value New Loan to Value Ratio New Mortgage Less: Outstanding Balance of Initial Mortgage Refinancing Costs @ 1.5% Refinancing Proceeds © 2009 HVS
$81,700,000 70.0% $57,187,000 24,165,000 858,000 $32,164,000 20
Reversion at End of Ten Year Holding Period
11th Year's Net Income Capitalization Rate
© 2009 HVS
$9,029,734 9.5%
Total Sales Proceeds
$95,050,000
Less: Outstanding Mortgage Balance Less: Transaction Costs @ 2.0% Net Sales Proceeds (Say)
51,283,000 1,901,000 $41,866,000
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Forecast of Total Cash Flow to Equity
Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
© 2009 HVS
Net Income Available for Debt Service $4,045,000 5,028,000 6,253,000 7,342,000 7,562,000 7,789,000 8,023,000 8,263,000 8,511,000 8,767,000
Plus: Refi / Sales Proceeds
Total Annual Debt Service -
$2,565,000 2,565,000 2,565,000 2,565,000 5,071,000 5,071,000 5,071,000 5,071,000 5,071,000 5,071,000
+ + + + + + + + + +
= = = 32,164,000 = = = = = = 41,866,000 =
Total Cash Flow to Equity $1,480,000 2,463,000 3,688,000 36,941,000 2,491,000 2,718,000 2,952,000 3,192,000 3,440,000 45,562,000
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Cash Flow to Equity Plus Initial Mortgage = Value Net Income to Equity
Year 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
$1,480,000 2,463,000 3,688,000 36,941,000 2,491,000 2,718,000 2,952,000 3,192,000 3,440,000 45,562,000 *
Present Worth of $1 Factor at 19.0% x x x x x x x x x x
0.840325 0.706146 0.593392 0.498642 0.419021 0.352114 0.295890 0.248644 0.208942 0.175579
Discounted Cash Flow = = = = = = = = = =
$1,244,000 1,739,000 2,188,000 18,420,000 1,044,000 957,000 873,000 794,000 719,000 8,000,000
Value of Equity Component
35,978,000
Plus: Value of Initial Mortgage
25,472,000
Total Property Value
61,450,000
Rounded to:
$61,500,000
10th year net income to equity of $3,696,000 plus sales proceeds of $41,866,000
© 2009 HVS
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Discount Rate Equating Cash Flow to Value
Discount Factor @ 13.5%
Year
Net Income
2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14 2014/15 2015/16 2016/17 2017/18 2018/19
$4,045,000 5,028,000 6,253,000 7,342,000 7,562,000 7,789,000 8,023,000 8,263,000 8,511,000 101,916,000 *
* * * * * * * * * *
0.88080 0.77581 0.68334 0.60189 0.53014 0.46695 0.41129 0.36227 0.31908 0.28105
= = = = = = = = = =
Estimated Market Value (SAY) © 2009 HVS
Discounted Cash Flow $3,562,845 3,900,786 4,272,910 4,419,042 4,008,933 3,637,075 3,299,786 2,993,403 2,715,729 28,643,542 $61,454,054 $61,500,000 24
DCR and Cash on Cash Return Debt Cash on Coverage Cash Year Ratio Return 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
© 2009 HVS
1.58 1.96 2.44 2.86 1.49 1.54 1.58 1.63 1.68 1.73
4.8 % 7.9 11.8 Infinite Infinite < DCR Reduced Upon Infinite Refinancing Infinite Infinite Infinite Infinite
25
Conclusion: Cap Rates Down in 2009 Due to Depressed NOI, Overall Rates of Return Up, Values Down
Investment Parameters and Resultant Values
Valuation Inputs: Interest Rate Loan-to-Value Eq. IRR Terminal Cap Rate
Recent Peak Value Mid-2007
% Change Current Recent Peak Available to Current Rates Available
Assumed % Change Refinancing Peak to @ 70% LTV Refinancing 7.5% @ 70%
6.5% 75% 18.0% 8.5%
9.0% 45% 19.0% 9.5%
9.0%/7.5% 45% / 70% 19.0% 10.0%
$230,000 10.6% 7.6%
$134,000 15.5% 12.5%
-41.7% 490 bps 490 bps
$146,000 13.5% 10.5%
-36.5% 290 bps 290 bps
6.6% 6.8%
10.7% 7.1%
300 bps -40 bps
9.9% 6.6%
270 bps -110 bps
Valuation Outputs: Value Per Room Discount Rate Implied Cap Rate Derived Cap Rate: Historical NOI 1st Year Proj. NOI © 2009 HVS
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Suzanne R. Mellen, MAI, CRE, FRICS is the founding principal and Managing Director of HVS - San Francisco. She also heads up the firm’s Gaming Services Division, which specializes in the valuation and evaluation of gaming properties, and HVS’ newest office in Las Vegas. Prior to establishing the San Francisco office in 1985, Ms. Mellen was Director of Consulting and Valuation Services for the firm in New York. Her professional experience includes positions with Morgan Guaranty Trust, Laventhol & Horwath and HelmsleySpear and with Harley-Little Associates. She gained her operational experience with Westin Hotels.
Suzanne R. Mellen, Biography
Ms. Mellen has a BS degree in Hotel Administration from Cornell University and holds the following designations: MAI (Appraisal Institute), CRE (Counselors of Real Estate), FRICS (Royal Institute of Chartered Surveyors) and ISHC (International Society of Hospitality Consultants). She has been appraising hotels and related real estate for over 30 years, has authored numerous articles and is a frequent lecturer and expert witness on the valuation of hotels, casinos and related issues. She developed the Simultaneous Valuation Formula, a mortgage-equity income capitalization formula for variable income properties, as well as the refinancing model currently utilized by the firm.
© 2009 HVS
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HVS
HVS is a global services and consulting organization focused on hotel, restaurant, shared ownership, gaming and leisure industries. Since the launching of the firm in 1980, our clients have relied on our specialized industry knowledge and expertise for advice and services geared to enhancing economic returns and asset value. Through a network of more than 20 offices staffed by over 350 seasoned industry professionals, HVS offers a wide scope of services that track the development and ownership process.
© 2009 HVS
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Please call with any questions!
Thank You
© 2009 HVS
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