Me Project Group 1

ME PROJECT MARKET RESEARCH ON BIKES WITH SPECIAL EMPHASIS ON BAJAJ PULSAR

SUBMITTED TO Ms. SIMRAN SETHI

SUBMITTED BY GROUP1 NIHAREIKA ISHA PADMA GAURANG SAURABH SIRAJ 1

INDEX

1. ACKNOWLEDGMENT……………………………………….………………3 2. INTRODUCTION………………………………………………….……………4 3. COMPANY PROFILE(BAJAJ AUTO LTD)…………………………..14 4. OBJECTIVE OF STUDY……………………………………………..……….18 5. IMPORTANCE OF STUDY………………………………………………….18 6. METHODOLOGY……………………………………………………………….19 7. MARKET SHARE AND GROWTH RATES………………………….20 8. MARKET STRUCTURE……………………………………………………….22 9. PRIMARY DATA ANALYSIS……………………………………………….23 10. SALES FORECASTING……………………………………………………27 11. CORRELATION………………………………………………………………34 12. HERFINDAHL INDEX…………………………………………………….35 13. CONCLUSION…………………………………………………………………36 14. REFERENCES……………………………………………………………….….37 15. APPENDIX………………………………………………………………………38

2

Acknowledgement

We are extremely grateful to Ms. Simran Sethi for providing us the honor of carrying out the project, which helped us to put our learning’s into experience. Without her guidance we would not have been able to proceed with our project in the right direction. We would like to express our sincere regards to the staff of LBSIM, New Delhi, whose help and guidance enables us to know what exactly consumer’s preference towards television is all about. We would also like to thank our family friends and relatives who have helped us and supported us in all possible ways. A Project report needs co-operation, guidance and experience of many more other than the persons whose name appears on the cover, we would like to thank each and everyone who have helped us in our endeavor.

3

INTRODUCTION The Indian automotive industry consists of five segments: commercial vehicles; multi-utility vehicles & passenger cars; two-wheelers; threewheelers; and tractors. With 5,822,963 units sold in the domestic market and 453,591 units exported during the first nine months of FY2005 (9MFY2005), the industry (excluding tractors) marked a growth of 17% over the corresponding previous. The two-wheeler sales have witnessed a spectacular growth trend since the mid nineties. Two-wheelers: Market Size & Growth In terms of volume, 4,613,436 units of two-wheelers were sold in the country in 9MFY2005 with 256,765 units exported. The total twowheeler sales of the Indian industry accounted for around 77.5% of the total vehicles sold in the period mentioned Figure 1:Segmental Growth of the Indian Two Wheeler Indust

ry (FY1995-2004)

4

After facing its worst recession during the early 1990s, the industry bounced back with a 25% increase in volume sales in FY1995. However, the momentum could not be sustained and sales growth dipped to 20% in FY1996 and further down to 12% in FY1997. The economic slowdown in FY1998 took a heavy toll of two-wheeler sales, with the year-on-year sales (volume) growth rate declining to 3% that year. However, sales picked up thereafter mainly on the strength of an increase in the disposable income of middle-income salaried people (following the implementation of the Fifth Pay Commission's recommendations), higher access to relatively inexpensive financing, and increasing availability of fuel efficient two-wheeler models. Nevertheless, this phenomenon proved short-lived and the two-wheeler sales declined marginally in FY2001. This was followed by a revival in sales growth for the industry in FY2002. Although, the overall twowheeler sales increased in FY2002, the scooter and moped segments faced de-growth. FY2003 also witnessed a healthy growth in overall two-wheeler sales led by higher growth in motorcycles even as the sales of scooters and mopeds continued to decline. Healthy growth in twowheeler sales during FY2004 was led by growth in motorcycles even as the scooters segment posted healthy growth while the mopeds continued to decline. Figure 1 presents the variations across various product subsegments of the two-wheeler industry between FY1995 and FY2004. 5

Demand Drivers

The demand for two-wheelers has been influenced by a number of factors over the past five years. The key demand drivers for the growth of the two-wheeler industry are as follows: ▪ Inadequate public transportation system, especially in the semi-urban and rural areas; ▪ Increased availability of cheap consumer financing in the past 3-4 years; ▪ Increasing availability of fuel-efficient and low-maintenance models; ▪ Increasing urbanisation, which creates a need for personal transportation; ▪ Changes in the demographic profile; ▪ Difference between two-wheeler and passenger car prices, which makes two-wheelers the entrylevel vehicle; ▪ Steady increase in per capita income over the past five years; and ▪ Increasing number of models with different features to satisfy diverse consumer needs.

6

MARKET CHARACTERISTICS

Demand

Segmental Classification and Characteristics

The three main product segments in the two-wheeler category are scooters, motorcycles and mopeds. However, in response to evolving demographics and various other factors, other subsegments emerged, viz. scooterettes, gearless scooters, and 4-stroke scooters. While the first two emerged as a response to demographic changes, the introduction of 4-stroke scooters has followed the imposition of stringent pollution control norms in the early 2000. Besides, these prominent sub-segments, product groups within these sub-segments have gained importance in the recent years. Examples include 125cc motorcycles, 100-125 cc gearless scooters, etc. The characteristics of each of the three broad segments are discussed in Table 1.

7

Table 1 Two-Wheelers: Comparative Characteristics Scooter

Motorcycle

Moped

> 22,000

> 30,000

> 12,000

2-stroke, 4-

Mainly 4-

stroke

stroke

Price*(Rs. as in January 2005)

Stroke

2-stroke

Engine Capacity 90-150

100, 125, > 125 50, 60

(cc) Ignition

Kick/Electronic Kick/Electronic Kick/Electronic

Engine Power (bhp) 8

6.5-9

7-8 and above

2-3

Weight (kg)

90-100

> 100

60-70

50-75

50-80+

70-80

High

Highest

Low

Fuel Efficiency (kms per litre) Load Carrying

*Ex-showroom Mumbai Compiled by INGRES

Segmental Market Share The Indian two-wheeler industry has undergone a significant change over the past 10 years with the preference changing from scooters and mopeds to motorcycles. The scooters segment was the largest till FY1998, accounting for around 42% of the two-wheeler sales (motorcycles and mopeds accounted for 37% and 21 % of the market respectively, that year). However, the motorcycles segment that had witnessed high growth (since FY1994) became larger than the scooter segment in terms of market share for the first time in FY1999. Between FY1996 and 9MFY2005, the motorcycles segment more than doubled 9

its share of the two-wheeler industry to 79% even as the market shares of scooters and mopeds stood lower at 16% and 5%, respectively. Figure 2 Trends in Segmental Share in Industry Sales (FY1996-9MFY2005)

While scooter sales declined sharply by 28% in FY2001, motorcycle sales reported a healthy growth of 20%, indicating a clear shift in consumer preference. This shift, which continues, has been prompted by two major factors: change in the country's demographic profile, and technological advancements.

Over the past 10-15 years the demographic profile of the typical twowheeler customer has changed. The customer is likely to be salaried and in the first job. With a younger audience, the attributes that are sought of a two-wheeler have also changed. Following the opening up of the 10

economy and the increasing exposure levels of this new target audience, power and styling are now as important as comfort and utility.

The marketing pitch of scooters has typically emphasised reliability, price, comfort and utility across various applications. Motorcycles, on the other hand, have been traditionally positioned as vehicles of power and style, which are rugged and more durable. These features have now been complemented by the availability of new designs and technological innovations. Moreover, higher mileage offered by the executive and entry-level models has also attracted interest of two-wheeler customer. Given this market positioning of scooters and motorcycles, it is not surprising that the new set of customers has preferred motorcycles to scooters. With better ground clearance, larger wheels and better suspension offered by motorcycles, they are well positioned to capture the rising demand in rural areas where these characteristics matter most.

Scooters are perceived to be family vehicles, which offer more functional value such as broader seat, bigger storage space and easier ride. However, with the second-hand car market developing, a preference for used cars to new two-wheelers among vehicle buyers cannot be ruled out. Nevertheless, the past few years have witnessed a shift in preference towards gearless scooters (that are popular among women) within the scooters segment. Motorcycles, offer higher fuel 11

efficiency, greater acceleration and more environment-friendliness. Given the declining difference in prices of scooters and motorcycles in the past few years, the preference has shifted towards motorcycles. Besides a change in demographic profile, technology and reduction in the price difference between motorcycles and scooters, another factor that has weighed in favour of motorcycles is the high re-sale value they offer. Thus, the customer is willing to pay an up-front premium while purchasing a motorcycle in exchange for lower maintenance and a relatively higher resale value.

Supply Manufacturers

As the following graph indicates, the Indian two-wheeler industry is highly concentrated, with three players-Hero Honda Motors Ltd (HHML), Bajaj Auto Ltd (Bajaj Auto) and TVS Motor Company Ltd (TVS) - accounting for over 80% of the industry sales as in 9MFY2005. The other key players in the two-wheeler industry are Kinetic Motor Company Ltd (KMCL), Kinetic Engineering Ltd (KEL), LML Ltd (LML), Yamaha Motors India Ltd (Yamaha), Majestic Auto Ltd (Majestic Auto), Royal Enfield Ltd (REL) and Honda Motorcycle & Scooter India (P) Ltd (HMSI).

12

Figure 3 Shares of Two-Wheeler Manufacturers in Industry Sales (FY2000-9MFY2005)

Although the three players have dominated the market for a relative long period of time, their individual market shares have undergone a major change. Bajaj Auto was the undisputed market leader till FY2000, accounting for 32% of the two-wheeler industry volumes in the country that year. Bajaj Auto dominance arose from its complete hold over the scooter market. However, as the demand started shifting towards motorcycles, the company witnessed a gradual erosion of its market share. HHML, which had concentrated on the motorcycle segment, was the main beneficiary, and almost doubled its market share from 20% in FY2000 to 40% in 9MFY2005 to emerge as the market leader. TVS, on the other hand, witnessed an overall decline in market share from 22% in FY2000 to 18% in 9MFY2005. The share of TVS in industry sales 13

fluctuated on a year on year basis till FY2003 as it changed its product mix but has declined since then.

Technology

Hitherto, technology transfer to the Indian two-wheeler industry took place mainly through: licensing and technical collaboration (as in the case of Bajaj Auto and LML); and joint ventures (HHML). Table 2 Technological tie-ups of Select Players Nature of Alliance

Company

Product

Technological tie-up

Kawasaki Heavy Industries Ltd, Japan

Motorcycles

Technological tie-up

Tokya R&D Co Ltd, Japan

Two-wheelers

Technological tie-up

Kubota Corp, Japan

Diesel Engines

HHML

Joint Venture

Honda Motor Co, Japan

Motorcycles

KEL

Technological tie-up

Hyosung Motors & Machinery Inc

Motorcycles

KEL

Tie up for manufacturing

Italjet, Italy

Scooters

Daelim Motor Co Ltd

Motorcycles

Aprilia of Italy

Scooters

Bajaj Auto

and distribution LML

Technological tie-up

Hero Motors Technological tie-up

14

.BAJAJ

Auto limited

Bajaj Auto is a major Indian automobile manufacturer. It is India's largest and the world's 4th largest two- and three-wheeler maker. It is based in Pune, Maharashtra, with plants in Akurdi and Chakan (Pune),Waluj (near Aurangabad) and Pantnagar in Uttaranchal. Bajaj Auto makes and exports motorscooters, motorcycles and the auto rickshaw. The Forbes Global 2000 list for the year 2005 ranked Bajaj Auto at 1946. Over the last decade, the company has successfully changed its image from a scooter manufacturer to a two wheeler manufacturer. Its product range encompasses scooterettes, scooters and motorcycles. Its real growth in numbers has come in the last four years after successful introduction of a few models in the motorcycle segment. The company is headed by Rahul Bajaj who is worth more than US$1.5 billion. Bajaj Auto came into existence on November 29, 1945 as M/s Bachraj Trading Corporation Private Limited. It started off by selling imported two- and three-wheelers in India. In 1959, it obtained license from the Government of India to manufacture two- and three-wheelers and it went public in 1960. In 1970, it rolled out its 100,000th vehicle. In 1977, 15

it managed to produce and sell 100,000 vehicles in a single financial year. In 1985, it started producing at Waluj in Aurangabad. In 1986, it managed to produce and sell 500,000 vehicles in a single financial year. In 1995, it rolled out its ten millionth vehicle and produced and sold 1 million vehicles in a year. BAJAJ PULSAR Bajaj Pulsar is a motorcycle brand owned by Bajaj Auto in India. The two wheeler was developed by the product engineering division of Bajaj Auto in association with motorcycle designer Glynn Kerr Tokyo R&D. Currently there are four variants available -with engine capacities of 150cc, 180 and two variants with capacities of 220 cc. More than a million units of Pulsar were sold by November 2005. A Pulsar 200 variant was discontinued in July 2009. With monthly sales of more than 48,000 units in June 2009, Pulsar is the leader in the 150 cc segment in India with a market share of 43%. Before the introduction of the Pulsar, the Indian motorcycle market trend was towards fuel efficient, small capacity motorcycles (that formed the 80-125 cc class). Bigger motorcycles with higher capacity virtually did not exist (except for Enfield Bullet). The launch and success of Hero Honda CBZ in 1999 showed that there was demand for performance bikes. Bajaj took the cue from there on and launched the Pulsar twins in India on November 24, 2001. Since the introduction and success of Bajaj Pulsar, the Indian youth began expecting high power and other features from affordable motorcycles.

16

DTSi DTSi stands for Digital Twin Spark Ignition, a Bajaj Auto trademark. Bajaj Auto holds an Indian patent for the DTSi technology. The Alfa Romeo Twin-Spark engines, the BMW F650 Funduro which was sold in India from 1995 to 1997 also had a twin-spark plug technology, and the Rotax motorcycle engines,more recently Honda's iDSI Vehicle engines use a similar arrangement of two spark-plugs. However very few small capacity engines did eventually implement such a scheme in their production prototypes.

Key players in the Bike segment : • • • • •

17

BAJAJ AUTO HERO HONDA TVS YAMAHA ROYAL ENFIELD

Objective of Study The objective of this research is to determine the customer as well as retailers preferences regarding different brands of motorcycles which result in their market share. It involves the study of consumers’ buying behaviour and attitudes towards a variety of attributes and factors, which help them in decision-making. The brand we chose to focus on was BAJAJ AUTO Ltd.’s PULSAR brand of bikes. We studied the company profile, its market structure, the brand awareness, growth rates and popularity among consumers so as to forecast the future sales and understand the growth trends. We designed a questionnaire to survey various dealers and consumers to understand the demand and supply situation of the bike market. Secondary data from the internet has also been used for effective analysis.

Importance of Study The importance of this study is to practically understand the relevance of the concepts of managerial economics in the business organisations and here in the realm of the motorcycles industry. The present market scenario was analyzed and future demands forecasted using the simple regression techniques. Also, a comprehensive study of the major factors involved in this market was conducted so as to see how different and similar a market structure is from the theories.

18

Methodology Primary data collection: For primary data collection we designed a questionnaire to survey various dealers and consumers. The objective of survey was to understand the consumer preferences among various brands of motorcycles available in the market and the factors affecting consumer buying process. The sample size for the survey was around 40-50.

Secondary data collection: Internet was the major source for secondary data. Apart from understanding the bike industry in general and Bajaj in specific, our major task was to analyse the consumer demand for Bajaj’s PULSAR’s brand and project the future sales for the company. We have used the trend projection and exponential forecasting technique to predict the sales.

19

Market share and Growth rates Two- wheeler sales in the country have sky rocketed in the recent years, and the annual sales of motorcycles in India expected to cross the 10 million mark by 2010. The low penetration of two-wheelers in the country 31 two-wheelers per 1000 citizens (2004) leaves immense scope for the growth of the market. Overall the industry sales of two-wheelers have grown by 15% from 6.57 million in 2004/2005 to 7.57 million in 2005/2006. The buoyant Indian economy with a growth rate of around 8% per annum is further expected to fuel the growth of two wheelers in the country. The share of motorcycles have increased over the years, while that of other twowheelers like geared scooters, scooterettes and mopeds have shown a negative growth or remained stagnant. The two-wheelers have penetrated 7% of rural house hold and 24% of urban markets, thus it leaves an immense scope for the market to grow. Bajaj Auto one of the leading producers of automobiles in the country has been able to sell close to 2.3 million vehicles in 2005/2006, the sales of the company grew by almost 31%. The company registered a 32% growth in the sales of motorcycles much above the industry average of 19%. Bajaj Auto has emerged as a market leader in the entry level or price segment motorcycle with the Bajaj CT 100 accounting for nearly 40% of the market share. It also commands a 62% market share in the premium segment of motorcycles with products like the Bajaj Pulsar DTSI. TVS Motors which has lots of firsts to its credit in the two-wheeler sector in the country was able to sell 1.34 million units during the same period thus registering an overall growth of 15% from the previous year. In the motorcycle segment the company's growth in sales was in sync with the industry average.

f this figures have daunted you the best is yet to come, the country leader in two-wheelers hero honda have crossed the three million mark during the year 2005/2006 which is a good few lakhs more than its nearest competitor Bajaj Auto. The company accounted for nearly 40% of then 20

two-wheeler market. In the motorcycle segment the company has been able to attain a market share of about 50%. The segment in which hero honda has emerged as a clear winner is the Deluxe segment, which is the largest segment in the motorcycles category, with its flagship family of motorcycles splendor selling over 1.2 million units which is just a shade less than all the two wheelers sold by TVS during the same year. The motorcycle category is expected to see a further growth and according to industry experts it will drive all other category of twowheelers to the periphery. The table below shows the over all trend of Industry Sales over a 5 year period. The figures are provided by the Society of automobile Manufactures Association (SIAM). Two-wheeler domestic sales trend Motorcycles 2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2887194

3647493

4170445

4964753

5815417

21

MARKET STRUCTURE Market Structure

This industry is a high volume, medium growth sector characterized by excess/ idle capacities owing to in efficient operations. Imports have not been influencing prospects, as high government regulations limit this . Characteristics • BIKES : primarily a commodity market - price sensitive • Effective distribution chain - through a simple network of dealers and franchises. • Regulation - Emission norms as well as import regulations are in existence. • Market - Urban areas are the largest market for Pulsar, followed by small towns and then rural centres.

The market of motorcycles shows a monopolistic structure due to the following factors:

• • • •

22

Different and many players in the market Differentiated products. Prices charged are different. The competition is a non price competition i.e on the basis of advertising and delivering differentiated products.

PRIMARY DATA ANALYSIS 1. Age group classification of customers preferring Bajaj Pulsar

As is clear the maximum buyers are of the age group 19-23, hence it can be interpreted as being popular in college going youth. 2. Bikes owned (categorisation)

Categorization of Bikes Owned No. of bike customers 20 15 10 5

23

Splendor Plus

Pulsar

Platina

Passion Plus

Gladiator

Discover 135

Discover 125

CT 100

Apache

Ambition

0

Categorization of Bikes Owned No. of bike customers

3. What features help swing the customer? Existing Customer Preferences

0% 13% 45%

24% 18%

Price

Mileage

Style

Power

Maintenance

4. What are the customers likely to purchase next? Car/bike? Next Vehicle Purchase

42% 58%

Bike

24

Car

5. Which bike are customers most likely to purchase next? Next Bike Purchase Preference (%)

18%

31%

24% 14%

Gladiator

Apache

Unicorn

13%

Pulsar

Any Other

6.Factors influencing the buying behavior?

No. of Customers

Friends Dealer Family Advertizement

25

7.AD recall Ad Recall

2% 6%

16% 50% 26%

Bajaj

Hero Honda

Honda

Tvs

8. Cross elasticity of product from data 29.41% 9. Price elasticity of product 23.53

26

Yamaha

Sales Forecasting

1. Trend projection method:

This classical method of business forecasting is essentially concerned with the study of movements of variables through time. It is used under the assumption that the factors responsible for past trends in the variable to be projected will continue to play their part in the future in the same manner and to the same extent in magnitude and direction. There are three techniques of trend projection: Gr a ph i c a lme t ho d Le a s ts qu a r eme t ho d Bo x J e nk i n sme t ho d

27

Sa l e sf o r e c a s to fPul s a rf o rt hey e a r20 0 8us i ngLe a s tSq ua r e me t ho d( whi c hi ss a mea ss i mpl el i ne a rr e g r e s s i o nme t ho d) : YEAR 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 TOTAL

28

SALES(S)in Crores 86 5 10 1 1. 55 13 7 4. 94 15 1 2. 43 16 4 7. 86 17 9 9. 6 82 1 1. 38

T

T2

ST

1 2 3 4 5 6 21

1 4 9 16 25 36 91

86 5 20 2 3. 1 41 2 4. 82 60 4 9. 72 82 3 9. 3 10 7 97 . 6 32 0 99 . 5 4

1.Trend Projection Method:

Thes t r a i g h tl i net r e n de q ua t i o nus e df o rpr o j e c t i ngf u t ur es a l e si s : S=a+bT Whe r e ,S=a n n ua ls a l e s T=t i mei ny e a r s a , ba r ec o ns t a n t s

Thec o ns t a n t saa ndba r ee s t i ma t e db ys ol v i ngt hef o l l owi ngt wo e qua t i o n s : 29

∑S=na+b∑T ∑ST=a ∑T+b ∑T2

He r e ,n=6 ∑S=82 1 1. 38c r o r e s ∑ST=32 0 99 . 54c r o r e s ∑T=2 1 ∑T2 =91

Ons o l v i ngt hea bo v et woe qua t i o nsweg e t , a=6 9 6. 63a ndb=1 91 . 9 8

30

RMSE Calculation: Ont heb a s i so ft hec a l c ul a t e dv a l ue so faa ndb ,t hepr e di c t e ds a l e sv a l ue f o rt hey e a r s200 6, 20 0 7a n d20 0 8wi l lbe : Sp2 0 06=6 96 . 6 3+( 19 1. 9 8* 7)=20 4 0. 49c r o r e Sp2 0 07=6 96 . 6 3+( 19 1. 9 8* 8)=22 3 2. 47c r o r e Sp2 0 08=6 96 . 6 3+( 19 1. 9 8* 9)=24 2 4. 45c r o r e

And,t hea c t ua ls a l e sv a l ue sf o rt hea b o v et hr e ey e a r sa r e : Sa 2 00 6=20 7 2. 00c r o r e Sa 2 00 7=24 8 7. 00c r o r e Sa 2 00 8=34 9 7. 00c r o r e 2 RMSE={ ( 3 49 7. 0 0− 2 4 2 4. 45) +( 24 87 . 0 0− 22 3 2. 47)2+( 2 07 2. 0 0− 21 / 2 20 4 0. 49)}

( 3)1/2 =6 3 6. 69

Sa l e sf o r200 9a n d2 01 0c a na l s obef o r e c a s t e d: S20 0 9=6 9 6. 63+( 1 91 . 9 8* 1 0)=26 1 6. 43c r o r e S20 1 0=6 9 6. 63+( 1 91 . 9 8* 1 1)=28 0 8. 41c r o r e 31

3. Exponential smoothing: I ti sapo p ul a rt e c h ni quef o rs ho r t r unf o r e c a s t i ng .I tus e sawe i g ht e d a v e r a g eo fpa s tda t aa st heba s i sf o raf o r e c a s t .I tg i v e shi g he rwe i g htt o mo s tr e c e ntda t aa ndl e a s twe i g htt oo bs e r v a t i o nso fd i s t a n tpa s t .The we i g ht sf o rp a s td a t aa r ec ho s e ni na c c o r da nc ewi t ht he i rde g r e eo f i nf l ue n c eo nt hef u t ur e .Thef o r mul af o re x po ne nt i a ls mo o t hi ngi s St +1=a Yt+( 1a )St Whe r e ,St +1=e x po ne nt i a l l ys mo o t he df o r e c a s t Yt=a c t u a ls a l e so fpr e v i o usy e a r St=f o r e c a s t e ds a l e so fl a s ty e a r

Now,wea ppl yt h i sme t ho do nt hea v a i l a bl es a l e sd a t ao fAWL c o ns i de r i ngas i xpe r i o da v e r a g ea st h ei ni t i a lf o r e c a s tf o rt hey e a r200 6:

32

S20 0 6=( 8 6 5. 00 +1 0 11 . 5 5+1 37 4. 9 4+15 1 2. 43 +1 6 47 . 8 6 +1 7 99 . 6 0) / 6 =13 6 8. 56 Wet a ket hes mo o t hi ngc o ns t a n t , a=0 . 4 The r e f o r e ,S20 0 7=( 0. 4* 2 0 72)+( 0. 6 * 13 68 . 5 6) =1 64 9. 9 3 S2 00 8=( 0. 4* 2 48 7)+( 0 . 6* 15 0 9. 25) =19 8 4. 75 RMSE Calculation: 2 2 RMSE={ ( 2 07 2. 0 0− 1 3 6 8. 56) +( 2 4 87 . 0 0− 16 4 9. 93) +( 3 49 7− 2 1 / 2 19 8 4. 75) } 1/ 2 ( 3)

=1 0 77 . 4 0 6

Sa l e sf o rt hey e a r20 09c a na l s obepr e di c t e da s : S20 0 9=( 0 . 4* 34 9 7. 00)+( 0. 6* 1 98 4. 7 5)=2 5 89 . 6 5c r

33

Calculation of Correlation:

Co r r e l a t i o nCo e f f i c i e n t= 3 35 9. 71 / ( 61) * ( 36 4. 8 48* 1. 87 1) =0. 9 84

Thi ss ho wst ha tt he r ei sahi g hde g r e eo fc o r r e l a t i o nbe t we e nt het i me pe r i o da n ds a l e si . emo r et het i mepe r i o d,mo r ea r et hes a l e s .Thi sme a ns t h a ts a l e sa r ehi g hl yde pe nde nto nt het i mepe r i o dpo s i t i v e l y .

34

Calculation of Herfindahl Index Ma r ke ts ha r eo fv a r i o usbr a n dsi npr e mi ums e g me nti . e1 5 02 20c . c . Pul s a r:4 1% He r oHo nda :2 7% TVS:25% Ro y a lEnf i e l d:5% Ya ma ha :2 % He r f i nda hlI nde x :( 41^ 2) +( 2 7^ 2) +( 25 ^ 2) +( 5^ 2) +( 2^ 2) =3 06 4 Si nc et hev a l ueo fH( He r f i n da hli nde x )i sh i g h ,wec a ns a yt ha tt he c o nc e n t r a t i o nr a t i oi sa l s oh i g hi nt hes e g me nto fpr e mi umb i ke s .

35

CONCLUSION Thebi kewa sl a un c he di nt hey e a r20 00 ,a n df o ri tt oc a pt ur et hel a r g e s t s ha r eo fma r ke ta n dbe a te x i s t i nga ndf l o ur i s hi ngbr a n dsl i keHe r o Ho ndai sag r e a ta c hi e v e me nt . Al s ot her o o tme a ns q ua r ee r r o rv a l uei nt hel e a s ts qu a r eme t ho d i sl e s st ha nt ha ti nt hee x po ne nt i a lf o r e c a s t i ngme t ho d .Th us , t hes a l e s pr e di c t e dbyl e a s ts q ua r eme t ho dwi l lbeabe t t e re s t i ma t eo ft hef u t ur e s a l e st ha nt h a tpr e d i c t e dbye x po ne nt i a lf o r e c a s t i ngme t ho d.

36

REFERENCES 1.EBSCOHOST( da t a ba s e ) 2.PROWESS( da t a ba s e ) 3.I NDI ASTATS( da t a b a s e ) 4.Pe t e r s o n,Le wi sa ndJ a i n:Ma na g e r i a lEc o no mi c s 5.www. ba j a j a u t o . c o m 6.ht t p: / / a ut o . i n d i a ma r t . c o m/ mo t o r c y c l e s / b a j a j p ul s a r 7.ht t p: / / www. f a da we b. c o m/ t wo _whe e l e r _i nd us t r y . ht m

37

APPENDIX Questionnaire for Bajaj Dealers ( Thef i nd i ng so ft hi ss u r v e ywi l lb eus e do nl yf o ra c a d e mi cp u r p o s e sb yt hes t u d e nt so fLa lBa ha d u rSha s t r iI ns t i t ut e o fMa na g e me nt ,De l hi )

Na mea n dAd dr e s so ft h ed e a l e r : Zon e : Con t a c tPe r s on :

Q1.Wh a ta r et h emon t h l ys a l e sofBa j a jPul s a r150c cbi kei ny ours h owr oom?

020 0

2 0 0 4 0 0

400600

>600

Q2.Ra n kt h es a l e soft h ef ol l owi ngbi ke s( i nt h epa s ton ey e a r )onas c a l eof1 7 ( wh e r e1i n di c a t e sh i g h e s ts a l e sa n d7be i ngt h el owe s ts a l e s ) . ( a )Ba j a jPu l s a r1 5 0

( b)Ba j a jPul s a r180

( c )Ba j a jPu l s a r2 2 0

( d)Ba j a jDi s c ov e r135

( e )Ba j a jDi s c ov e r1 2 5

( f )Ba j a jXCD

( g )Ba j a jPl a t i n a

Q3.How di dt h el a s tp r i c eh i k eofRs .6000i mpa c tt h es h owr oom s a l e sofBa j a j Pul s a r150?Sa l e sd e c r e a s e db y :

Le s st h a n1 0 % t h a n30% 38

10%20%

20%30%

Mo r e

Q4.Ra n kt h ec ol orpr e f e r e n c e sf ort h ebi ke ss ol di ny ours h owr oomonas c a l eof1 t o5( wh e r e1i n di c a t e smo s tp r e f e r r e dc ol ora nd5i n di c a t e st hel e a s tpr e f e r r e d c ol or ) ( a )Re d

( b)Bl a c k

( c )Bl u e

( d)Gr e y

( e )Ot h e r s

Q5.Wh a t ,a c c o r d i n gt oy ou ,a r et h eke yf a c t or sf orc on s i de r a t i onbyac u s t ome r whi l epur c h a s i n gt h ebi k e sf r om y ours h owr oom?( Ra n konas c a l eof1t o7 ,1 be i ngt h eh i g h e s ta n d7b e i n gt h el owe s t ) ( a )Pr i c e

( b)Mi l e a g e

( c )Te c h n i c a lSp e c i f i c a t i on s ( e )Wa r r a n t y

( d)St yl e ( f )Af t e r s a l e sSe r vi c e s

( g ) An y ot h e r , __________ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _______________

pl e a s e

s pe c i f y

Q6.Wh a tp e r c e n toft h ec u s t ome r s( a ppr oxi ma t e l y )optf ort h ef ol l owi ng c ombi n a t i on s ? ( a )Di s cBr a k e ,Ki c kSt a r t

( b)Di s cBr a ke ,Pu s hSt a r t

( c )Dr u m Br a k e ,Pu s hSt a r t

( d)Dr umBr a ke ,Ki c kSt a r t

Q7.Howma n yp e r c e n tc u s t ome r s( a ppr oxi ma t e l y)g e tt h e i rv e hi c l e sf i n a n c e d?

020 % 39

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q8.Howma n y( i n%)o p tf ore x c h a ng es c he me s ?

020 %

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q9.How ma n yc u s t ome r s ,i ny ouropi ni on ,woul doptf orhi ghe re n dbi ke sl i k e Pul s a r150 c c ,j u s tb e c a u s eo fb e t t e rf i n a n c i nga n dot h e rf a c i l i t i e s ?

020 %

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q10.Whi c ha g eg r ou p( i ny e a r s )dot h ema j or i t yofPul s a rbuy e r sbe l ongt o( Ti c k t h ea ppr op r i a t eo n e ) ? ( a )1 8 2 3

( b)2430

( c )>30

Q11.Whi c hoft h ef ol l owi n gpa r a me t e r sdoc u s t ome r sc ompl a i na bou t ,i fa n y ? ( Ti c kt h ea p p r o p r i a t eon e s ) ( a )Mi l e a g e ( c )Ba t t e r yl i f e

( b)Af t e rs a l e ss e r vi c e ( d)Wa r r a nt y

( e )Pi c k u p ( f ) Any ot h e r , pl e a s e s pe c i f y __________ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ __ _ _ _ _ _____________________________________ _ _ _ ____

40

41

Questionnaire for bike dealers other than Bajaj ( Thef i nd i ng so ft hi ss u r v e ywi l lb eus e do nl yf o ra c a d e mi cp u r p o s e sb yt hes t u d e nt so fLa lBa ha d u rSha s t r iI ns t i t ut e o fMa na g e me nt ,De l hi )

Na meoft h ed e a l e r : De a l si n: Zon e : Con t a c tPe r s on :

Q1.Wh a ta r et h emon t h l ys a l e sof150c cbi ke si ny ours h owr oom?

020 0

2 0 0 4 0 0

400600

>600

Q2.How di dt h el a s tpr i c eh i k eofRs .6000i mpa c tt h es h owr oom s a l e sof15 0c c bi ke s ?Sa l e sd e c r e a s e db y :

Le s st h a n1 0 %

10%20%

20%30%

Mo r e

t h a n30%

Q3.Wh a t ,i ny ou ro pi n i on ,a r et h eke yf a c t or sf orc on s i de r a t i onbyt h ec u s t ome r pur c h a s i ng1 5 0 c cbi k e sf r om y ou rs h owr oom?( Ti c kt h ea ppr opr i a t eboxba s e don t h eor de rofi mpo r t a n c e ) Ve r yi mp. ( a )Pr i c e

( b)Mi l e a g e 42

I mp. I n di f f e r e n t Noti mp .

( c )Te c hni c a lSp e c i f i c a t i on s

( d)St yl e

( e )Wa r r a n t ya n dAf t e r s a l e sSe r vi c e s

Q4.Wh a tp e r c e n toft h ec u s t ome r s( a ppr oxi ma t e l y )optf ort h ef ol l owi ng c ombi n a t i on s ? ( a )Di s cBr a k e ,Ki c kSt a r t

( b)Di s cBr a ke ,Pu s hSt a r t

( c )Dr u m Br a k e ,Pu s hSt a r t

( d)Dr umBr a ke ,Ki c kSt a r t

Q5.Howma n yp e r c e n tc u s t ome r sg e tt h e i rv e hi c l ef i na n c e d?

020 %

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q6.Howma n y( i n%)g e n e r a l l yoptf ore x c h a ng es c h e me si nt h e150c cs e gme n t ?

020 %

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q7. How ma n yc u s t ome r s ,i ny ouropi ni on ,woul doptf orhi gh e re n dbi ke sl i k e Pul s a r150 c c ,j u s tb e c a u s eo fb e t t e rf i n a n c i nga n dot h e rf a c i l i t i e s ?

020 %

43

2 0 4 0 %

4060%

>60%

Q8.Whi c ha g eg r ou p( i ny e a r s )dot h ema j or i t yof150c cbi kebuy e r sbe l ongt o? ( Ti c kt h ea p p r o p r i a t eon e )

( a )1 8 2 3

44

( b)2430

( c )>30

Questionnaire for Existing Bike Customers ( Thef i nd i ng so ft hi ss u r v e ywi l lb eus e do nl yf o ra c a d e mi cp u r p o s e sb yt hes t u d e nt so fLa lBa ha d u rSha s t r iI ns t i t ut e o fMa na g e me nt ,De l hi )

Na meoft h ec u s t ome r : Ag e : Bi keown e d:

Q. 1 Ra t et h ek e yc o n s i d e r a t i on swhi l ebuyi ngt h ebi kei nor de rofpr e f e r e n c e( ona r a nki ngs c a l eof1t o5 ,wi t h1b e i ngt h ehi gh e s tr a n ka n d5be i ngt h el owe s t ) ( a ) Pr i c e

_ _

( b) St yl e__

( c ) Mi l e a g e

_ _

( d) Powe r __

( e ) Ma i n t e n a n c e _ _

Q. 2Wh i c hwou l db ey ou rn e x tv e hi c l epu r c h a s e( t i c kt h ea ppr opr i a t eon e ) ?

( a )Bi ke

( b )Ca r

Q. 3I fbi k e ,t h e nwh i c hon ewoul dyoupu r c h a s e( Ti c kt h ea ppr opr i a t eon e ) ?

( a )Gl a di a t or ( b) Apa c h e ( c ) Uni c or n ( d) Pul s a r 45

( e ) Anyot h e r ,p l e a s es p e c i f y _ _ _ _____

Q. 4Ha v ey oue v e rs wi t c h e dov e rf r omon ebi ket oa n ot h e r ?

Ye s

No

I fy e s ,f r om_ _ _ __ _ _ _ _t o _ __ _ _ ______

Q. 5whi c hoft h ef ol l o wi n gi nf l ue n c e syout h emos tr e g a r di ngy ourpu r c h a s e de c i s i on?Ra n ki no r d e rofp r e f e r e n c e .

Fr i e n ds De a l e r Fa mi l y Adv e r t i s e me n t

Q. 6Whi c hoft h ef ol l o wi n gme di aa r eyoumos tl i ke l yt on ot i c ea na dv e r t i s e me n t ? ( Ra nki nor d e rofp r e f e r e n c e )

Te l e vi s i on Ra di o Hoa r di ng s I n t e r n e t Pr i n tme di a If you are an owner of pulsar 150cc, then answer the following (7 to 9) 46

Q. 7Ar ey ous a t i s f i e dwi t hy ou rpu r c h a s e ?

( a )Ye s__

( b )No_ _

Q. 8Ra t ey ou rs a t i s f a c t i onont h ef ol l owi ngpa r a me t e r s( 15,1hi gh e s ta n d5 l owe s t )

( a ) St yl e ( b) Af t e rs a l e ss e r v i c e ( c ) Powe r ( d) Pe r f or ma n c e

Q9.Woul dy ouh a v ep u r c h a s e dPul s a r ,i ft h es a mewa spr i c e dRs 6000hi gh e r ? ( a )Ye s__

( b )No_ _

Q10.Wi t hp e t r olp r i c e sr i s i n g ,woul dyoul i ket og of orPul s a ra sy ou rn e x t pur c h a s e ? ( a )Ye s__

( b )No_ _

Q. 10whi c hoft h ef ol l owi n gbi k e sdoe syour e me mbe r swa t c hi nga na dv e r t i s e me n t of ? ( a )Ba j a j ( b)He r oHon d a 47

( c )Ya ma h a ( d)Hon da ( e )TVS

48

Questionnaire for Prospective Bike Customer ( Thef i nd i ng so ft hi ss u r v e ywi l lb eus e do nl yf o ra c a d e mi cp u r p o s e sb yt hes t u d e nt so fLa lBa ha d u rSha s t r iI ns t i t ut e o fMa na g e me nt ,De l hi )

Na me Ag e Bi keOwn e da tp r e s e n t ,i fa n y

Q. 1Whi c hc omp a n y ’ sbi k ea r ey oul i ke l yt opu r c h a s ei nt h en e a rf ut u r e( t i c kt h e a ppr opr i a t eo n e ) ?

( a )Ba j a j ( b)He r oHon d a ( c )Hon da ( d)Ya ma h a ( e )TVS

Q. 2Wh a ti st h ek e yc on s i d e r a t i ongui di ngy ourpur c h a s e ?( Pl e a s er a n ki nor d e rof pr e f e r e n c eonas c a l eof1t o5 ) )

( a )Pr i c e

_ _ _

( b)St yl e

_ _ _

( c )Mi l e a g e

_ _ _

( d)Powe r

_ _ _

49

( e )Ma i nt e n a n c e

_ _ _

Q. 3I fac a ri sa v a i l a bl ea tap r i c eofa r oun d1l a kh ,t h e nwh a twoul dyouoptf o r ?

Ca r ___

Bi ke ___

Q. 4Woul dy oupu r c h a s ePu l s a r 150c c ,i ft hes a mei spr i c e da t65000?

Ye s___

No___

Q. 5Wi l lt h er i s i n goi lpr i c e si mpa c tyou rpur c h a s ede c i s i onoft h epul s a r150c c ?

Ye s___

No___

Q. 6Woul db e t t e rf i n a n c i n go pt i on sa f f e c ty ourde c i s i oni nf a v orofpu r c h a s i ng Pul s a r 150c cov e ra n yo t h e rbi k e ?

Ye s___

50

No _ _ _