Making Capital Investment Decisions: Mcgraw-hill/irwin

Chapter 10 •Making Capital Investment Decisions

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.

Relevant Cash Flows • The cash flows that should be included in a capital budgeting analysis are those that will only occur if the project is accepted • These cash flows are called incremental cash flows • The stand-alone principle allows us to analyze each project in isolation from the firm simply by focusing on incremental cash flows 10-2

Asking the Right Question • You should always ask yourself “Will this cash flow occur ONLY if we accept the project?” • If the answer is “yes”, it should be included in the analysis because it is incremental • If the answer is “no”, it should not be included in the analysis because it will occur anyway • If the answer is “part of it”, then we should include the part that occurs because of the project 10-3

Common Types of Cash Flows • Sunk costs – costs that have accrued in the past • Opportunity costs – costs of lost options • Side effects • Positive side effects – benefits to other projects • Negative side effects – costs to other projects • Changes in net working capital • Financing costs • Taxes 10-4

Pro Forma Statements and Cash Flow • Capital budgeting relies heavily on pro forma accounting statements, particularly income statements • Computing cash flows – refresher: • Operating Cash Flow (OCF) = EBIT + depreciation – taxes • OCF = Net income + depreciation when there is no interest expense • Cash Flow From Assets (CFFA) = OCF – net capital spending (NCS) – changes in NWC 10-5

Table 10.1 Pro Forma Income Statement Sales (50,000 units at $4.00/unit) Variable Costs ($2.50/unit) Gross profit Fixed costs Depreciation ($90,000 / 3) EBIT Taxes (34%) Net Income

$200,000 125,000 $ 75,000 12,000 30,000 $ 33,000 11,220 $ 21,780

OCF= EBIT + Depreciation - Taxes= 33,000 + 30,000 -11,220= 51,780 10-6

Original Investment (Year 0) • Original capital investment for this project is $90,000 • The project’s duration is three years. • Investment will be depreciated straight-line (1/3 each year) for ease of calculation in this example

• In addition, the project will tie up $20,000 of working capital, but this working capital can be recovered (freed up) at the end of the project. 10-7

Table 10.5 Projected Total Cash Flows Year 0 OCF Change in NWC

-$20,000

NCS

-$90,000

CFFA

-$110,000

1

2

3

$51,780

$51,780

$51,780 +20,000

$51,780

$51,780

$71,780 10-8

Making The Decision • Now that we have the cash flows, we can apply the techniques that we learned in chapter 9 • Enter the cash flows into Excel and compute NPV and IRR • Excel output, next page • For this project, projected hurdle rate (required return) is 20%

• Should we accept or reject the project? 10-9

Excel output for problem Operating Cash Flows (OCF)

Year 0 $0

Change in Net Working Capital (NWC)

-$20,000

Capital Spending

-$90,000

Cash Flow from Assets

-$110,000

Year 1 $51,780

Year 2 $51,780

Year 3 $51,780

$20,000

$51,780

$51,780

=NPV of CFFA's Year 1-3 @ 20% Less original Investment Net Present Value at 20% =IRR of CFFA's, Years 0-3, use guess rate of 20%

$71,780 $120,647.69 -$110,000 $10,647.69 25.762%

Accept the project if we desire a return between 20 and 25.7% 10-10

More on Net Working Capital • Why do we have to consider changes in NWC separately? • GAAP requires that sales be recorded on the income statement when made, not when cash is received • GAAP also requires that we record cost of goods sold when the corresponding sales are made, whether or not we have actually paid our suppliers yet • Finally, we have to buy inventory to support sales although we haven’t collected cash yet 10-11

Depreciation • The depreciation expense used for capital budgeting should be the depreciation schedule required by the IRS for tax purposes • Depreciation itself is a non-cash expense; consequently, it is only relevant because it affects taxes • Depreciation tax shield = DT • D = depreciation expense • T = marginal tax rate 10-12

Computing Depreciation • Straight-line depreciation • D = (Initial cost – salvage) / number of years • Very few assets are depreciated straight-line for tax purposes

• MACRS (see text for classes and rates) • Need to know which asset class is appropriate for tax purposes • Multiply percentage given in table by the initial cost • Depreciate to zero (assume no salvage value) • Mid-year convention (with a few exceptions) 10-13

After-tax Salvage • If the salvage value is different from the book value of the asset, then there is a tax effect • Book value = initial cost – accumulated depreciation • After-tax salvage = salvage – T(salvage – book value)

10-14

Example: Replacement Problem • Original Machine • Initial cost = 100,000 • Annual depreciation = 9,000 • Purchased 5 years ago • Book Value = 55,000 • Salvage today = 65,000 • Salvage in 5 years = 10,000

• New Machine • • • •

Initial cost = 150,000 5-year life Salvage in 5 years = 0 Cost savings = 50,000 per year • 3-year MACRS depreciation

• Required return = 10% • Tax rate = 40% 10-15

Replacement Problem – Computing Cash Flows • Remember that we are interested in incremental cash flows • If we buy the new machine, then we will sell the old machine • What are the cash flow consequences of selling the old machine today instead of in 5 years?

10-16

Replacement Problem – Pro Forma Income Statements Year Cost Savings

1

2

3

4

5

50,000

50,000

50,000

50,000

50,000

New

49,500

67,500

22,500

10,500

0

Old

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,000

9,000

40,500

58,500

13,500

1,500

(9,000)

EBIT

9,500

(8,500)

36,500

48,500

59,000

Taxes

3,800

(3,400)

14,600

19,400

23,600

5,700

(5,100)

21,900

29,100

35,400

Depr.

Increm.

(40%)

NI

OCF= EBIT + Incremental Depr –Taxes on Project Year 1: OCF= 9,500+ 40,500 -3,800 = 46,200 etc. 10-17

Replacement Problem – Incremental Net Capital Spending • Year 0 • Cost of new machine = 150,000 (outflow) • After-tax salvage on old machine = 65,000 .40(65,000 – 55,000) = 61,000 (inflow) • Incremental net capital spending = 150,000 – 61,000 = 89,000 (outflow)

• Year 5 • After-tax salvage on old machine = 10,000 .40(10,000 – 10,000) = 10,000 (outflow because we no longer receive this) 10-18

Replacement Problem – Cash Flow From Assets Year

0

1

2

46,200 53,400

OCF

3

4

5

35,400

30,600

26,400

NCS

-89,000

-10,000

∆ In NWC CFFA

0

0

-89,000

46,200 53,400

35,400

30,600

16,400

10-19

Replacement Problem – Analyzing the Cash Flows • Now that we have the cash flows, we can compute the NPV and IRR • Enter the cash flows • Use hurdle rate established (10%) for NPV and as a “guess rate” for IRR • Excel output, next page

• Should the company replace the equipment?

10-20

Excel output for problem Operating Cash Flows (OCF)

Year 0 $0

Net Capital Spending

-$89,000

Cash Flow from Assets

-$89,000

Year 1 $46,200

Year 2 $53,400

Year 3 $35,400

Year 4 $30,600

Year 5 $26,400 -$10,000

$46,200

=NPV, Years 1-5 @ 10% Less original Investment Net Present Value at 10% =IRR of CFFA's, Years 0-5, use guess rate of 10%

$53,400

$35,400

$30,600

$16,400 $143,812.10 -$89,000 $54,812.10 36.28%

10-21

Pause here to work class case

10-22

Chapter 10 •End of Chapter

McGraw-Hill/Irwin

Copyright © 2006 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved.