Magnum Financial Final

FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Introduction Having already established the technical and marketing aspects of the study, Magnum will now try to incorporate all pertinent information gathered to determine the financial feasibility of W.I.T. A comprehensive discussion of key quantitative indicators will be presented in this part of the study. This section will start off by presenting information regarding the project’s total cost, initial capital requirements, the correct mix of financing as well as sources for such. Assumptions were already made regarding several factors concerning the financial projections. Financial statements and analysis of such will also follow. This will provide insight regarding the financial potential of W.I.T as a business. The analysis and detailed evaluation of all generated projections is the basis for Magnum’s conclusion that W.I.T is financially sound and capable of competing in the industry.

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Executive Summary In order to realize the financial feasibility of W.I.T, Magnum conducted financial analysis to be able to conclude whether it is a business worth undertaking. The study started with an estimation of the total investment which will be required to set up the business. This amounted to Php 2,993,034.21, which includes registration fees, fixed assets, pre-operating/promotion expenses, as well as initial working capital requirements necessary to start up the business. In order to determine the optimal capital structure, Magnum employed the EBIT-EPS approach. Based on the findings, it was concluded that the optimal mix of 70% debt and 30% equity yielded the highest EPS among the options considered and was therefore chosen. This translates to a Php 2,095,123.95 loan requirement and almost Php 900,000 in equity. Having been backed up by reputable guarantors, Magnum is certain to raise the necessary amounts required. Based on the resulting projections as reflected by the financial statements, particularly the Income Statement, it turns out that Magnum stands to earn a positive net income in its first year of operations. Though the amount is relatively small, it signals that the business can stand to gain more as it continues its operations despite the additional cost of the 12% VAT and corporate taxes. In addition, the net present value, computed for the operating cash flows for Years 1 to 10 is found to be positive and greater than zero. The internal rate of return computed for resulted to 29%, and the payback period for the business is 4.56 years. As such, it is determined that the company would earn a return greater than 20%, communicating an attractive market value to the investors and increased wealth for the owners.

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Financial Ratios were derived to assess the performance of W.I.T. Based from the resulting liquidity, activity, debt, and profitability ratios, W.I.T.’s business operations are indeed efficiently and effectively managed. A Sensitivity Analysis using a pessimistic scenario of 20% unmet target revenue and an optimistic scenario of 20% increase in target revenue were used to assess risk and used several possible return estimates to obtain a sense of variability among outcomes. It can be concluded based on the results of the financial analysis that W.I.T is a promising business venture.

FINANCIAL STUDY

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Initial Investment (see Exhibit 1) Total initial investment required to start the business is estimated to be Php 2,993,034.21.

This

amount

includes

registration

fees,

fixed

assets,

pre-

operating/promotion expenses, as well as initial working capital requirements necessary to start up the business. Payments for legal transactions with the SEC, BIR, DTI and Local City Government comprise the registration fees. Purchases made for the equipments, furniture and fixtures for the office, plant and the store as well as the delivery van are also included in the initial investment. Renovations and construction works of the plant and office as well as the store site is also part of the initial costs. The pre-operating costs consist of outlays for promotional activities, most specifically the initial print materials and the expenses for the launching of the store which will be conducted through a ribbon cutting ceremony. The required initial working capital is composed of payments for supplies and purchases of materials for initial production runs. A month’s worth of salary payments and a two-month deposit for the store rent will also form part of the initial investment. Cash on hand (set at 100,000) will also be required for other pre-operating expenses which will arise prior to start of business.

Exhibit 1 PROJECT COST- INITIAL INVESTMENT

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠ Magnum Inc. Project Cost-Initial Investment Registration Fees SEC BIR DTI Business Permit Total Registration Fees Fixed Assets Land Plant and Plant Assets Plant Structure Equipment Small UV Exposure Unit 20x24 4 Color 4 Station Manual Press Fire Extinguisher Paint Curing Machine Furniture and Fixtures Storage Cabinets Long Wood Tables Plant Improvements Store Assets Equipment Point of Sale System Display Materials Furniture and Fixtures Mannequin Fire Extinguisher Leasehold Improvements Office Assets Equipment 4-in-1 office machine Personal Computer Fire Extinguisher Furnitures and Fixtures Chairs,Tables Filing Cabinets Vehicle Total Fixed Assets Prepaid Advertising Costs Promotions Expense- Print Materials Promotions Expense-Ribbon Cutting Total Prepaid Advertising Costs Initial Working Capital Current Assets Cash on hand Supplies Materials Payment Prepaid Rent Salaries and Wages Total Initial Working Capital TOTAL PROJECT COST

Cost 3,189.00 500.00 515.00 7,472.00 11,676.00 550,000.00 250,000.00 13,037.47 108,385.00 1,200.00 5,500.00 4,000.00 1,500.00 19,800.00

17,000.00 10,000.00 6,000.00 1,200.00 477,381.00

15,000.00 50,000.00 1,200.00 21,000.00 4,500.00 800,000.00 1,845,122.47 2,840.00 9,050.00 11,890.00

100,000.00 18,481.15 23,768.79 87,920.00 382,594.80 612,764.74 2,993,034.21

EBIT-EPS Analysis (see Exhibit 2)

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Capital is comprised of equity capital and debt capital. Although research suggests that there is an optimal capital structure for every business, there is still no specific scientific methodology to obtain that. One approach to determine the optimal capital structure is the EBIT-EPS approach. It is often stated that the goal of the management is to maximize owner’s wealth. The EBIT-EPS approach puts emphasis on the firm’s profits before income and taxes. The EBIT-EPS approach allows for the use of different options to choose the one that yields the highest EPS is chosen. From the EBIT-EPS table, there are five options, each with increasing percentage of debt. The EBIT is the average figure for the first five years of operations. The table shows declining earnings before taxes figure because of the higher level of debt as a leverage. Also, the net income decreases because of tax expenses and the income taxes decline. The EPS grows with higher debt. One reason is that interest payments can be deducted from taxable income. Thus, Magnum, Inc. chose to utilize option 5 as the optimal capital mix with 70% debt and 30% equity, which yields the highest earnings-per-share among the five options.

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EXHIBIT 2 EBIT-EPS ANALYSIS

Ma gnumInc. EBIT-EPS Analysis Total project cost Average EBIT Income Taxes cost of debt (LT loan) Common Shares at P10 par value par value

percentage of debt percentage of equity EBIT Interest (16%) Earnings before taxes Income taxes Net income Common Shares at P10 par value EPS

2,993,034.21 1,666,414.70 0.32 0.16 10.00

option 1 0% 100%

Capital Mix Options option 2 option 3 option 4 25% 50% 60% 75% 50% 40%

option 5 70% 30%

1,666,414.70 1,666,414.70 1,666,414.70 1,666,414.70 1,666,414.70 119,721.37 239,442.74 287,331.28 335,219.83 1,666,414.70 1,546,693.33 1,426,971.96 1,379,083.42 1,331,194.87 533,252.70 494,941.87 456,631.03 441,306.69 425,982.36 1,133,162.00 1,051,751.47 970,340.94 937,776.72 905,212.51 299,303 224,478 149,652 119,721 89,791 3.79 4.69 6.48 7.83 10.08

Assumptions for Financial Projections Rates 7

FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Growth rate The group will assume an annual 5 percent growth rate on sales. Corporate income tax rate Income tax is set at a constant rate of 32 percent1. Cost of debt For the purpose of this study, we used the following formula to get the cost of debt: Cost of debt =

(banks’ average lending rate for all maturities2 + premium3) x (1 – tax rate) =

(17% + 10%) x (1 – 32%)

=

18%

The premium used to adjust the cost of debt is 10% as allowance for the risk associated with debt financing for a start-up business. Cost of equity The group used the following formula to determine the cost of equity:

Cost of Equity

= Cost of Debt + Risk-free Rate = 18% + 7% = 25%

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

The cost of equity is estimated to be higher than the cost of debt due to the increased required return desired by investors. As such, to determine the cost of equity, risk-free rate is added to the after-tax cost of debt. Risk-free rate is found by averaging the 90-day T-bill rates for the past five years (2001-2005).4 Cost of Capital The cost of capital is computed through the weighted average of the firm’s debt and equity capital costs, using the optimal capital structure of 70% debt and 25% equity. The weighted average cost of capital is computed as follows:

WACC

= 70% (cost of debt) + 30% (cost of equity) = 70% (18%) + 30% (25%) = 20%

Inflation rate For selected items in the financial statements, the projected national inflation rate of 7.5%5 is used; the inflation rate of the clothing industry, pegged at 1.02% is also used.

Dividend policies Dividends amounting to P100, 000 is distributed to stockholders starting from the 6th up to the 10th year of operations as income is seen to be at a considerably favorable level.

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Projected Financial Statements A.

Income Statement Accounts (see Appendix 1 for the Pro-forma Income

Statements) 1. Sales The selling price of the W.I.T t-shirts was determined through the survey conducted. The pre-determined regular selling price of Php 350.00 per shirt will remain constant throughout the ten-year projection. The discount price (50% of regular price) of Php 175 shall also be kept constant. Net sales is computed by dividing Gross Sales by 1.12 (at 12% VAT rate) 2. Sales Forecast (see Appendix 11 ) The sales forecast is based on the estimated production capacity that W.I.T has, the percentage of which was shown in the Market Study. The percentage of the effective demand that will be targeted will be kept at a constant rate. Magnum estimates that 30% of the items offered for sale at regular price will be sold. The remaining unsold items shall be offered for sale throughout the year at a 50% discount. It is estimated that 60% of these will be sold within the year.

Unsold items will be passed on to the following year and will be included in the items to be offered for discount sale for that year.

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All sales are made on cash basis. It is also assumed that there will be no sales returns. 3. Cost of Goods Sold (see Exhibit 12) The Product Costing Schedule (see Exhibit 13) shows the computation of each unit of t-shirt produced. The direct material cost component of each unit has been adjusted for inflation for the ten-year projection. The cost of goods sold for the promotional discount sale shall be based on First in First out (FIFO) basis. Wherein, the unsold items from the previous year will first be exhausted before the unsold items from regular sales of the present year. 4. Advertising Expenses Advertising expenses will be set at 2% of gross sales annually. This amount will be allocated to the various promotional activities that Magnum plans to implement annually. 5. Depreciation Expense (see Exhibit 5) In order to compute the depreciation expense, the straight-line method was used. All fixed assets have a salvage value equal to zero.

The estimated useful life of the fixed assets are based on information provided on-line sources, vendors of the corresponding fixed assets and from the estimation of Soledad Silverio-Reyes, a Certified Public Accountant.

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

6. Repair & Maintenance Annual Repair and Maintenance cost shall be set at PhP15, 000 for plant and PhP 10,000 for both store and office annually. This assumption was approved as by Soledad Silverio-Reyes, a Certified Public Accountant, based on the analysis she made on the nature and estimated life of the fixed assets. 7. Rent Expense (see Exhibit 9) This cost will only include the rental fees charged by the mall to its tenants. The ten-year projections were adjusted to reflect the national economy’s inflation (pegged at 7.5%). This amount does not cover the 3% of gross sales component. 8. Administrative Expense (see Exhibit 6) Position in the company and the level of responsibilities that each job entails make salaries and wages vary from one employee to another. Employees are paid every 15th and 30th of the month. Magnum will give 3% increase every 2 years on the basic pay of all its employees. These salary increases are meant to offset the effects of increases in the inflation rate.

9. SSS Contribution (see Exhibit 6)

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Magnum will pay SSS contributions for its employees, contribution will vary depending on the salary bracket that each employee belongs to. 10. PhilHealth Contribution (see Exhibit 6 ) As mandated by law, Magnum Inc. will give PhilHealth benefits to its employees and his/her legal dependents to cover part of hospitalization cost and other medical expenses. The company’s contribution for each employee is based on Phil Health Premium Rates. 11. Employee Benefits (see Exhibit 6) As mandated by P.D 851, employees shall be entitled to receive 13 th month pay which should amount to not less than 1/12 of the total basic salary he/she receives within a calendar year provided he/she has already worked in the company for at least one month. The 13th month pay of all Magnum employees will amount to the same monthly salary they receive. 12. Utilities Expense (Exhibit 10) Expenses for utilities consist of total costs incurred annually for gasoline, telephone, and electricity usage in the plant and office.

13. Supplies Expense(see Appendix 8)

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

The items under this account consist of office supplies such as paper, pens, ink and cleaning materials for the office, plant and stores. 14. Miscellaneous Expense (see Appendix 7) Annual miscellaneous expense will consist of fees paid for renewal of legal permits from the local government and other regulatory agencies. 15. Amortization Expense This is the amortization of the organizational cost incurred before the start of operations. The organizational cost is amortized over five years. B. BALANCE SHEET ACCOUNTS Current Assets 1. Inventory The cost of ending inventory for the each succeeding years shall consist of unsold items from the previous year and purchases made for materials for the beginning of the next year. The purchase of materials at the end of the year will be good for 250 units and will be held constant for the ten-year projection. 2. Supplies on Hand. (See Appendix 8)

3. Prepaid Expense.

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

At the pre-operation period, prepaid expense refers to the payments made for promotional materials, salaries and rent. There will no longer be pre-payments at the succeeding years because raw materials and other inputs to production will be paid as they are picked up from the suppliers. Fixed Assets 4. Office Assets Office assets include 4-in-1 office machine, personal computer, fire extinguishers; furniture and fixtures such as chairs and tables, and filing cabinets. 5. Store Assets Store assets include point-of-sale system (cash register), display materials, mannequins, lighting system, and fire extinguishers. Leasehold improvements accounts for the construction and renovation of the store. 6. Plant and Plant Assets These include plant equipments for printing such as the manual press, UV exposure units, paint curing machine, plant improvements, tables, cabinets etc. The current market value of the plant building is also included in this account.

7. Vehicle

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Magnum will use a light commercial van for delivery. The market value of the said vehicle at the time of acquisition is quoted at 800,000 and has 7 years remaining usable life and it will be depreciated using the straight-line method. 8. Intangibles The cost of leasehold improvements is listed under these Leasehold improvements accounts for the renovation of the store. This will also be depreciated over its estimated useful life. 9. Other Assets Registration and legal certifications acquired during the start of the project are placed under this account. The amount is amortized over a 5-year period. Current Liabilities 1. Rent Payable The store rent for the last month of the year shall be paid at the beginning of the next year.

2. Utilities Payable

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

The amounts under this account at year end shall carry the rent for the last month. 3. Interest Payable The interest at year end for the first five years of projection amounts to the monthly interest payment of the annual 16% interest on the loan principal of 2,095,123.95. 4. VAT Output Tax Payable This account, at year-end consists of the output tax for the last month of the year. 5. Long-term Loan The principal amount of the loan is 2,095,123.95, which will compose 70% of the project’s financing. The interest rate is 16% per annum and the maturity is set at Year 5. Stockholder’s Equity Capital Stock Total capital stock is equals to Php 900,000 with P10 par value per share.

Sources of Financing

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

It seems that Magnum, Inc., will have a difficult time finding a bank that provides a loan for a start-up business like W.I.T. hence we deem it necessary for us to have a guarantor to help with our loan needs. Magnum is indeed very fortunate to have two guarantors to support our business venture. (Lifted from the Project Sponsors page) 1. Glenda C. Mercado Underwriter, Sunlife of Canada Philippines, Inc. Mrs. Mercado, a Certified Public Accountant, retired from being a financial officer in Eastern Telecoms six years ago and then decided to join Sunlife of Canada as an underwriter.

2. Pilar Crisostomo Working as a loan officer in a prominent local bank for almost 15 years, Pilar Crisostomo has had a lot of experiences in financial operations and management. Besides her job in the bank, she is also an entrepreneur herself, managing two bars in Makati and in Ortigas and a chain of neighborhood bakeries in Las Pinas and Paranaque.

As such, Magnum can now loan a total of Php 2,095,124 at 16%1. To diversify the risk, Magnum has decided to divide the total amount and then loan from two different banks. Moreover, the two million worth of loan is too big for one bank to loan, therefore it is better to loan a portion of it in one bank, and the other part in a different one.

NPV Computation 1

BPI’s interest rate. Interest rate may change depending on the bank of choice.

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

The net present value is computed by subtracting the initial project cost from the present value of the operating cash flows for years 1 to 10, discounted at the company’s cost of capital of 20%. The year-end operating cash flows are computed as provided by the cash flow provided from operating activities as indicated by the Statement of Cash Flows. Net Present Value computed for the operating cash flows for years 1 to 10, P1,491,273.39 , is found to be positive and greater than zero. As such, it is determined that the company would earn a return greater than 20%, communicating an attractive market value to the investors and increased wealth for the owners. IRR Computation The Internal Rate of Return is the discount rate that equates the NPV of an investment opportunity with $0 because the present value of cash inflows equals the project cost or initial investment. The Internal Rate of Return computed for Magnum, Inc. is 29%. This is the compound annual rate of return that Magnum, Inc. will earn if it invests in the business and receives the given cash inflows. Since the IRR of 29% is greater than the cost of capital of 20%, Magnum, Incorporated’s business seems to be acceptable.

Payback Period The payback period is computed to determine the amount of time required for Magnum, Inc. to recover its initial investment in the business, as calculated from the

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

cash inflows from operating activities indicated by the Statement of Cash Flows. The yearly cash inflows are accumulated until the initial investment is recovered. Magnum, Inc.’s payback period is 4.56 years.

Financial Ratio Analysis The information contained in the four basic financial statements (Balance Sheet, Income Statement, Statement of Retained Earnings, and Statement of Cash Flows) is important to many interested parties who regularly need to have relative measures of Magnum, Inc.’s operating efficiency. Conducting a ratio analysis involves methods of calculating and interpreting financial ratios to analyze and monitor Magnum, Inc.’s performance.

Liquidity Ratios Liquidity ratios measure the ability of a company to pay short term liabilities. This includes the current ratio and quick ratio Current Ratio. The current ratio measures Magnum, Inc.’s ability to meet its short term obligations. It is computed as follows:

Current Ratio= Current Assets Current Liabilities

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Generally, the higher the current ratio, the more liquid a firm is deemed to be. As for Magnum, Inc., its current ratio has been increasing throughout the years, thus enabling it to become more liquid in the long run. Quick Ratio. The Quick Ratio is sometimes called the "acid-test" ratio and is one of the best measures of liquidity. It is figured as shown below: Quick Ratio = Current Assets- Inventory Current Liabilities The Quick Ratio is a much more exacting measure than the Current Ratio. By excluding inventories, it concentrates on the really liquid assets, with value that is fairly certain. Magnum, Inc.’s quick ratios are fairly low in years 1, 3, 5, and 7 because of high levels of inventory during those years. In addition, the high variance between the current ratio and quick ratio of Magnum is caused by high inventory asset balances in the balance sheet.

Activity Ratios Activity ratios measure the speed with which accounts are transformed into sales or cash. Regarding current accounts, measures of liquidity are not enough because differences in the structure of a company’s current assets and current liabilities can considerably affect its “true” liquidity.

Inventory Turnover. Inventory turnover measures the number of times that inventory is replaced during the period. It can be computed as follows: Inventory Turnover= Cost of Goods Sold Average Inventory

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Magnum, Inc.’s inventory turnover increases to a great extent through the its operating years. This means that Magnum, Inc. is transforming its inventory into sales faster. This is acceptable considering the nature of the company’s business which involves products (clothes) that are highly affected by changes in fads or styles and other clothing materials. Total Asset Turnover. The asset turnover is used to measure the ability of the firm to use its assets efficiently by turning it into cash. The computation for this ratio is: Total Asset Turnover= _____Sales________ Average Total Assets Magnum, Inc.’s total Asset Turnover has been increasing from Year 1 until Year 5. However, it shows a decline from Year 5 until year 10. Though this may be the case, the changes in this ratio from year-to-year are not that critical.

Debt Ratios Debt ratios indicate the company’s ability to pay its debts. This is somewhat similar to liquidity except that solvency involves longer time periods.

Long-term

creditors and stockholders are particularly interested in these ratios. The debt position of a company also indicates the amount of other people’s money being used to generate profits.

Debt Ratio. The debt ratio measures the proportion of total assets financed by Magnum, Inc’s creditors. The higher this ratio, the greater the amount of other people’s money being used to generate income. This ratio can be computed as follows:

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FINANCIAL STUDY ♠ CANTOS ♠ CIPRIANO ♠ MENDOZA ♠ QUIDATO ♠

Debt Ratio = Total Liabilities Total Assets Magnum’s Debt Ratio experiences a significant decrease in Year 5 onwards because it no longer pays interest on the money it loaned. Therefore, Magnum, Inc. has a lesser degree of financial indebtedness and less financial leverage.

Profitability Ratios Profitability ratios help people analyze the firm’s profits. The firm is very much concerned with earning enough revenue that can satisfy its obligations and at the same time provide a satisfactory return on its stockholder’s investments.

Gross Profit Margin. The gross profit margin measures the firm’s mark up on its products. It can be gauged by the following formula: Gross Profit Margin= Gross Income Sales

The relatively stable and consistent figures in Magnum, Inc.’s Gross Profit Margin is a good sign that the company is maintaining a stable gross profit . This also shows that there is no significant change in the company’s pricing policies.

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Operating Profit Margin. The operating margin represents the pure profits that are left to the company. This can be determined by the formula below: Operating Profit Margin= Operating Income Sales The Operating Profit Margin in Year 2 is significantly low compared with the other years due to a lower gross income matched with increasing operating expenses. Other than this figure, the ratio has been increasing for Magnum, Incorporated. Net Profit Margin. The return on net sales measure the income provided by sales. It can be measured by computing this formula: Net Profit Margin= Net Income Sales The Net Profit Margin for Magnum, Inc. has been increasing save for Years 2 and 3. The low net profit margins on these years were due to lower gross income matched with increasing operating expenses. However, net profit shoots up after Year 3. Earnings per Share. EPS measures the return earned on each outstanding share. It can be determined by computing the formula below: EPS= Earnings Available for Common Stockholders Number of Shares of Common Stock Outstanding The growing figure will definitely appeal the investors. The book value per share is increasing at a fast pace which indicates the attractiveness of the stocks to its owners

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Return on Assets. The ROA measures the firm’s ability to use its assets effectively in generating profits. The formula for this is: Return on Assets= Earnings Available for Common Stockholders Total Assets The ROA for Magnum, Inc. is low in Year 2. However, it has increased the following years and remained relatively consistent over Years 5 to 10. Return on Equity. ROE measures the returns earned on each peso of common stockholder’s investment. The evaluation of ROE can be measured by: Return on Equity= Earnings Available for Common Stockholders Common Stock Equity Magnum, Inc. will experience a growing ROE meaning the owners are better off. The increasing trend (with the exception of Year 2) also shows how well the company is utilizing the investment contributed by its owners.

Sensitivity Analysis

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A sensitivity analysis is one approach for assessing risk that uses several possible return estimates to obtain a sense of the variability among outcomes. One common method involves making pessimistic and optimistic estimates of the returns associated with the business. The pessimistic scenario included here is a 20% unmet target revenue. There is a negative Net Income outcome for Years 1 to 4. The Retained Earnings balance shows negative amounts for Years 1 to 5 as well. Cash Provided by Operating Activities are negative during Years 1 and 3, and Ending Cash Balances are negative for Years 3 and 5. The Net Present Value computed for the pessimistic scenario resulted to have a negative amount. Its Internal Rate of Return is only 15%, much less than the 20% cost of capital for Magnum, Incorporated. The Payback Period took 6.24 years to gain the return on its project cost. This indicates that in the pessimistic scenario, Magnum, Incorporated’s investment in the business will not be favorable or acceptable. As for the optimistic scenario of a 20% increase in its gross revenue, resulting amounts were all positive. The Net Present Value of P15,270,912.94 is positive and very high in this case. Its 71% Internal Rate of Return is also significantly higher than its 20% cost of capital, and the investment on the project (Payback Period) can be recovered in only 2.12 years.

ENDNOTES

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1

In General – Except as otherwise provided in this code, a corporation organized, authorized, or existing under the laws of any foreign country, engaged in trade or business within the Philippines, shall be subject to an income tax equivalent to thirty-five percent (35%) of the taxable income derived in the preceding taxable year from all sources within the Philippines: Provided, That effective January 1, 1998, the rate of income tax shall be thirty-four percent (34%); effective January 1, 1999, the rate shall be thirty-three percent (33%) and effective January 1, 2000 and thereafter, the rate shall be thirty-two percent (32%). - Section 28, paragraphs (A)(4) of the National Internal Revenue Code http://www.chanrobles.com/republicactno9294.html 2

3

http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sefi/sefip2.htm http://www.bsp.gov.ph/statistics/sefi/sefip2.htm

4

20012002200320042005T-bill rate (91 days)9.86%5.43%6.03%7.34%6.45% 5

“Economic Statistics.” [Online] Available http://www.philippinebusiness.com.ph/economic_stats/economy.htm, August 2005