Lincoln Ks
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2008
Lincoln County
North Central Kansas County Profiles
ROUGH DRAFT
Project funding support provided by Rural Business Tax Credits from the Kansas Department of Commerce through NCKCN, an affiliate of North Central Regional Planning Commission.
Advanced Manufacturing Institute 510 McCall Road Manhattan, KS – 66502-5034 785-532-7044 785-532-7031
LINCOLN COUNTY
Section I Overview of Lincoln County
Lincoln County is one of 105 counties of the sunflower state located in the north central part of Kansas. The county seat is the City of Lincoln.
2
LINCOLN COUNTY
County Profile - Lincoln County, KS Lincoln County is one of the 105 counties in the state of Kansas. The 2007 populations estimate lists the population to be 3,285. According to 2000 estimates, it has 718.87 square miles in land area and a population density of five people per square mile. The average household size is 2.29 persons (2000) and median household income is $31,110 (2004) (US census Bureau).
Population Estimates Lincoln County has a population of 3,285 as of July 1, 2007 (US Census Bureau). The population decreased by 8.19% from the year 2000 to 2007. As per the 2000 census survey, population of the county was 3,578 with median age of 43.7 years. In 2000, Lincoln County had 18.5% of its population under the age of 15 years, 19.1% in the age group 15 to 34 years, 34.1% in the age group 35 years to 59 years and 28.4% of population above 60 years of age. Table 1: Population Estimates for Lincoln County Year Ending July 1,2007 July 1,2006 July 1,2005 July 1,2004 July 1,2003 July 1,2002 July 1,2001 July 1,2000 Census 2000 April 1,2000 2000 to 2007 % change 1990 to 2000 % change
Lincoln County 3,285 3,282 3,371 3,361 3,493 3,486 3,546 3,574 3,578
Population Estimates
-8.19% -2.1%
Source: US Census Bureau
3
Kansas 2,775,997 2,755,817 2,741,665 2,730,828 2,721,824 2,712,383 2,700,979 2,692,890 2,688,418 3.26% 8.5%
LINCOLN COUNTY 3,050,000 2,550,000 2,050,000 1,550,000 Kansas 1,050,000 550,000 50,000 12,000 Lincoln
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: US census Bureau
Figure 1: Population Change in the Last Century Table 2: Sex and Age of Population (2000 Census) SEX AND AGE Male Female Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Count 1,754 1,824 185 210 265 253 125 304 514 524 181 175 390 298 154
Source: US Census Bureau
4
Percentage 49 51 5.2 5.9 7.4 7.1 3.5 8.5 14.4 14.6 5.1 4.9 10.9 8.3 4.3
LINCOLN COUNTY
Household Income Median household income for Lincoln County is $32,322 (2005) which is 24.59% less than the state median income. The median household income for Lincoln County has declined by 10.75% from 2000 to 2005, and the rate is more than the rate at which the state median income has declined at 9.9% Table 3: Median Income in Lincoln County Median Income Median household income in 2005 Median household income in 1999 (adj. for inflation1) 5-year percent change 2000 to 2005
Lincoln $32,322 $36,215 -10.75%
Kansas $42,861 $47622 -9.9%
Source: USDA ERS (www.ers.usda.gov) and US Census Bureau
$60,000 $50,000
$47,622
$42,861
$40,000
$36,215
$32,322
$30,000
Lincoln
$20,000
Kansas
$10,000 $0 Median household income in 2005 Median household income in 1999
Figure 2: Median Income in Lincoln County and Kansas
Poverty Rates The current poverty rate for Lincoln County is less than that of the state. In 2000, Lincoln County’s poverty rate was 9.7% which increased to 11.9% in 2005. The poverty rate for Kansas in the same period went from 8.9% to 11.7%. Table 4: Poverty Estimates for Lincoln County Poverty Estimates Poverty rate in 2005 In 2000 Poverty rate for children under 18 in 2005 In 2000
Lincoln 11.9 9.7
5-Year % Change 22.7%
Kansas 11.7 8.9
17.1 14.5
17.9%
15.2 11.9
Source: US Census Bureau (Downloaded from www.stats.indiana.edu) 1
Value 2005 dollars term calculated using CPI inflation calculator available at Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. The CPI inflation calculator uses the average Consumer Price Index for a given calendar year. This data represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. This index value has been calculated every year since 1913. For the current year, the latest monthly index value is used (www.bls.gov).
5
LINC COLN COUN NTY
Labor Force F Lincoln County’s cu urrent unem mployment rate is 3.8% % which is less than the t state ra ate of 4.1%. The T total lab bor force fo or the coun nty declined d by 4.7% in the last five years, and along wiith that the unemploye ed labor force also decclined by 14 4.8% in the last five ye ears. Table 5: Labor Force Annua al Averages s for Linco oln County y Labor Fo orce Annual Averages A in 2007 Total Labo or Force 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Employed d 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Unemployyed 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Unemployyment Rate 5-year % change 10-yearr % change
Linco oln County
Kansas
1,808 -4.7% 5.1% 1,739 -4.2% 4.6% 69 -14.8% 21.1% 3.8 -11.6% 15.2%
1,478,781 3.8% 6.9% 1,418,666 5.0% 6.7% 60,115 -17.8% 12.0% 4.1 -19.6% 5.1%
Source: US Bureau of Laborr Statistics (Down nloaded from ww ww.stats.indiana.edu)
4%
Employed Unemployed
96%
F Figure 3: Employed E a Unemp and ployed Lab bor Force in i Lincoln County
6
LINCOLN COUNTY
Educational Attainment About eighty-five percent of the population above the age of 25 has at least a high school degree. 26.3% of the population above the age of twenty-five had some college education, and 23.1% hold an associate or college degree. Table 6: Educational Attainment – Lincoln County Educational Attainment: Census 2000 Total Population 25 and Older Less Than 9th Grade 9th to 12th, No Diploma High School Graduate (incl. equiv.) Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree
Lincoln 2,548 185 198 906 669 146 316 128
Percent of Population 25+ 100.0% 7.3% 7.8% 35.6% 26.3% 5.7% 12.4% 5.0%
Kansas 1,701,207 88,124 149,675 507,612 417,722 99,096 290,271 148,707
Percent of Population 25+ 100.0% 5.2% 8.8% 29.8% 24.6% 5.8% 17.1% 8.7%
Source: US Census Bureau
100% 90% 80%
5.00% 12.40% 5.70%
17.10%
24.60%
40% 35.60%
29.80%
20% 10% 0%
Bachelor's Degree Associate Degree
26.30%
50% 30%
Graduate or Professional Degree
5.80%
70% 60%
8.70%
7.80% 7.30%
8.80% 5.20%
Lincoln
Kansas
Some College, No Degree High School Graduate (incl. equiv.) 9th to 12th, No Diploma
Figure 4: Educational Attainment – Lincoln County
7
LINCOLN COUNTY
Workers Commuting to Work More than seventy-three percent of the labor force work in the county itself. The maximum outflow of workers from Lincoln County is to Saline County (176 workers commute to Saline County for work). Also, another 98 workers commute to Ellsworth from Lincoln County. Table 7: Workers (Commuting to Work) Living in Lincoln County Workers Living in County in 2000 Total Working in County Working Elsewhere Barber Co. KS Barton Co. KS Cloud Co. KS Ellis Co. KS Ellsworth Co. KS Lyon Co. KS McPherson Co. KS Mitchell Co. KS Osborne Co. KS Ottawa Co. KS Russell Co. KS Saline Co. KS Lincoln Co. NE Scotts Bluff Co. Thayer Co. NE Dallas Co. TX
Lincoln
Pct Dist. in County
Kansas
Pct Dist. in State
1,813 1,336 477 4 7 7 2 98 4 2 56 8 32 70 176 2 2 1 6
100.0% 73.69% 26.31% 0.22% 0.39% 0.39% 0.11% 5.41% 0.22% 0.11% 3.09% 0.44% 1.77% 3.86% 9.71% 0.11% 0.11% 0.06% 0.33%
1,310,746 1,214,739 96,007 -
100.0% 92.7% 7.3% -
Source: US Census Bureau (Includes only workers over 16 years old)
8
LINCOLN COUNTY
-- Less than 1% of residence county population commutes -- 1.0% -4.9% of residence county population commutes -- 5.0% - 9.9% of residence county population commutes -- 10.0% - 19.9% of residence county population commutes -- 20% or more residence county population commutes
Figure 5: Workers Commute from Lincoln County 9
LINCOLN COUNTY
The maximum inflow of workers into the Lincoln County is from Mitchell County. Fortyone workers commute to Lincoln County from Mitchell County for work, and thirty come from Ellsworth County. In total 126 workers commute to Lincoln County for work. Table 8: People Working in Lincoln County People Working in County in 2000 Total Living in County Living Elsewhere Ellsworth Co. KS Johnson Co. KS Mitchell Co. KS Ottawa Co. KS Reno Co. KS Russell Co. KS Saline Co. KS Sedgwick Co. KS
1,462 1,336
Pct Dist. in County 100.0% 91.38%
126 30 6 41 22 2 6 13 6
8.62% -
Lincoln
Source: US Census Bureau (Includes only workers over 16 years old.)
10
Kansas 1,317,070 1,214,739 102,331 -
Pct Dist. in State 100.0% 92.2% 7.8% -
LINCOLN COUNTY
-- Less than 1% of residence county population commutes -- 1.0% -4.9% of residence county population commutes -- 5.0% - 9.9% of residence county population commutes -- 10.0% - 19.9% of residence county population commutes -- 20% or more residence county population commutes
Figure 6: Workers Commuting to Lincoln County 11
Section – II Industry Analysis
LINCOLN COUNTY
Industry Analysis Industry Totals for Lincoln County Industry employment (number of jobs) decreased by 4.14% from 1990 to 2007 in Lincoln County. Average pay (after adjusting for inflation) has grown at a rate of 4.99%, and number of establishments in the same period increased by around 2.48%. Table 9: Annual Covered Employment & Wages2 over Time (NAICS) – Lincoln County Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Establishments
Employment
121 120 123 126 129 128 125 120 123 127
991 993 1004 986 1000 1003 1020 1023 1076 1086
Average Annual Pay $12,406 $12,881 $12,746 $13,421 $13,998 $14,231 $14,248 $14,566 $14,864 $15,408
Average Pay in Terms of 20073 Dollars (adj*) $19,681 $19,609 $18,837 $19,258 $19,584 $19,361 $18,829 $18,817 $18,908 $19,176
2
Covered Employment & Wages (CEW) also known as ES202 data are the product of a federal-state cooperative program, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, also known as the ES-202 program. The data are derived from summaries of employment and total pay of workers covered by state and federal unemployment insurance (UI) legislation and provided by State Workforce Agencies (SWAs). The summaries are a result of the administration of state unemployment insurance programs that require most employers to pay quarterly taxes based on the employment and wages of workers covered by UI. (www.bls.gov). 3
Average wages in 2007 dollars term were calculated using CPI inflation calculator available at Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://data.bls.gov/cgibin/cpicalc.pl. The CPI inflation calculator uses the average Consumer Price Index for a given calendar year. This data represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. This index value has been calculated every year since 1913. For the current year, the latest monthly index value is used (www.bls.gov).
13
LINCOLN COUNTY Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Change from 1990 to 2007 Percent change from 1990 to 2007
Establishments
Employment
125 124 124 125 125 120 118 124 3 2.48%
1005 949 971 951 887 897 939 950 -41 -4.14%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) *adj = Adjusted for Inflation.
14
Average Annual Pay $16,295 $17,327 $17,625 $17,214 $17,997 $18,562 $19,860 $20,663 8,257 66.56%
Average Pay in Terms of 20073 Dollars (adj*) $19,620 $20,286 $20,314 $19,398 $19,754 $19,707 $20,426 $20,663 982 4.99%
120
118
120
120
124
125
125
124
124
125
123
125
127
128
123 120
121
125
126
Establishments 130
129
LINCOLN COUNTY
115
950
939
897
887
951
971
1005
1086
1076
1023
1020
1003
1000
949
1000
986
1004
991
Employment 1200
993
110
800 600 400
$20,663
$20,426
$19,707
$19,754
$19,398
$20,314
$19,620
$19,176
$18,908
$18,817
$19,584
$18,829
$19,000
$19,361
$19,500
$19,258
$20,000
$18,837
$20,500
$19,609
$21,000
$19,681
0 Average Pay in terms of 2007
$20,286
200
$18,500 $18,000 $17,500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Figure 7: Change in Establishments, Employment and Average Annual Wages in the County 15
LINCOLN COUNTY
Jobs and Average Wages by Industry Retail Trade and Public Administration are sectors with the most establishments in Lincoln County. There are twenty establishments in the Retail Trade sector and nineteen in Public Administration. Public Administration also has the maximum number of jobs (187). The highest paid sector is the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector with annual average wages of $46,269. Other high wage paying sectors are: Construction (annual average wages of $29,723), Finance & Insurance (annual average wages of $29,286) and Transportation & Warehousing (annual average wages of $28,044). Table 10: Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs, and Average Wages – Lincoln County Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs & Average Wages (2007) Total Covered Employment and Wages Private Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises
Establishments 124 95 4 1 NA 12 1 10 20 7 3 8 NA 8 NA
Jobs
NA 90 N 77 98 29 N 47 NA 16 NA
Annual Average Wages $20,663 $19,678 $22,128 N NA $29,723 N $22,402 $11,207 $28,044 N $29,286 NA $46,269 NA
950 511 26
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
5
30
$20,773
Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services
4 5 1 7
N N N N
N N N N
16
LINCOLN COUNTY Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs & Average Wages (2007) Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration
Establishments
Jobs 11 19
24 187
Annual Average Wages $15,413 $16,880
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) N – Non-disclosed, NA- Not Applicable
Establishments
Jobs
Agriculture
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate
Professional & Technical Services
Management of Companies
Waste Management
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts & Entertainment
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services
Public Administration
Figure 8: Establishments and Jobs in Various Industry Sectors in Lincoln County
17
LINCOLN COUNTY Agriculture
Annual Average Wage
Mining
$46,269
Utilities
$50,000
Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade
$45,000
Retail Trade $29,286
Information Finance & Insurance $15,413 $16,880
Real Estate
$11,207
$20,000
Transportation & Warehousing
$20,773
$25,000
$28,044
$30,000
$22,128
$35,000
$22,402
$29,723
$40,000
$15,000
Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies Waste Management Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance
$10,000
Arts & Entertainment
$5,000 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0 0
Accommodation & Food Services
$0
Other Services Public Administration
Figure 9: Average Wage in Various Industries in Lincoln County
18
LINCOLN COUNTY
Key Industries Lincoln County is home to some very well performing industries. These industries may be a part of existing or emerging clusters. For identifying key industries and clusters, three criteria were used: 1. Location Quotient – Location quotients (LQ) for industries at 6-digit NAICS level were calculated with US industry employment as base. The cutoff for LQ was taken as 1.25 (based on previous studies, especially Cortright 2003) 2. Average Wages – Average wages at 6-digit NAICS codes were compared to US average wages. If any industry has average wages 10% above the US average, it is considered to be a good performing industry. 3. Growth Rate – Growth rates for the employment were calculated over three year time period from 2003 to 20064; a growth rate above 5% is considered to be an indicator of good industry performance. Any industry that satisfies one of these three conditions is either a good performing industry or an industry with good potential for growth. There may or may not be a cluster existing in a region for every good performing industry, but if there are good performing industries, a cluster may emerge in the near future. (For further details of methodology, please see Appendix B). The industry satisfying all three of the above stated criteria is Gasoline Stations (except those with convenience stores) (NAICS 447190). This sector has grown by 8.74% over the last three years, and the wages are around 10% more than the national average. The location quotient for the sector is 17.67(Table 11). Table 11: 6 Digit NAICS Codes with High Wages, Location Quotients and Growth Differentials NAICS 447190
NAICS Definition Other Gasoline Stations
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
3
9
$23,026
Higher Wages than Nation 10.40%
Growth Differentials
Location Quotient
8.74%
17.67
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
4
There were two reasons for selecting 2003 base year. 1) The numbers were more likely to be free from 9/11 impacts as compared to 2001 or 2002 numbers. 2) NAICS definitions changed in 2002, so it was very difficult to bridge between 2002 & 1997 codes for some industries.
19
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with High Growth Rates The highest growth rate is for the Highway, Street & Bridge Construction sector and the Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers sector. Out of the top ten highest growth sectors, three are a part of the Local Real Estate, Construction & Development clusters. These sectors are Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction; New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders) and Other Building Material Dealers. Table 12: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Highest Growth Rates NAICS
NAICS Definition
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Growth Differentials
Cluster
237310
Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction
1
7
$27,702
91.29%
Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
424910
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
1
21
$20,953
91.29%
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
561710
1
20
$20,934
88.21%
236115
Exterminating and Pest Control Services New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders)
1
25
$22,392
52.86%
Local Commercial Services Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
541611
Administrative Management Consulting Services
1
3
$39,804
44.22%
Business and Financial Services
446110
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
1
8
$15,473
38.67%
Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences)
444190
Other Building Material Dealers
1
2
$15,624
25.99%
Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
327991
Cut Stone and Stone Product Manufacturing
1
22
$21,594
19.17%
Chemicals and Chemical-based Products
452990
All Other General Merchandise Stores
1
10
$9,780
18.56%
Local Retail Clothing & Accessories
524210
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages
3
8
$18,462
16.96%
Business and Financial Services
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
20
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with Highest Location Quotients The sector Livestock Wholesalers (NAICS 424520) has the highest LQ in Lincoln County of 208.23. Four out of the ten sectors with high LQ are a part of the Agribusiness cluster. The sectors are Livestock Wholesalers; Farm and Garden Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers; Grain and Field Bean Wholesalers and Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers. Table 13: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Highest Location Quotients NAICS
NAICS Definition
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Location Quotient
Cluster
424520
Livestock Wholesalers
1
19
$7,537
208.23
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
327991
Cut Stone and Stone Product Manufacturing
1
22
$21,594
163.70
Chemicals and Chemical-based Products
423820
Farm and Garden Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers
2
27
$33,157
60.76
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
424510
Grain and Field Bean Wholesalers
5
9
$30,808
47.60
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
561710
Exterminating and Pest Control Services
1
20
$20,934
46.49
Local Commercial Services
424910
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
1
21
$20,953
43.91
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
493130
Farm Product Warehousing and Storage
1
1
$9,828
24.78
Transportation & Logistics
812210 447190 624210
Funeral Homes and Funeral Services Other Gasoline Stations Community Food Services
1 3 1
10 9 2
$10,583 $23,026 $18,201
21.94 17.67 17.26
Local Health Services Energy (Fossil and Renewable) Local Health Services
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
21
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with Wages Higher than National Averages The county’s Tax Preparation Services (NAICS 541213) have average wages around 45% higher than the national averages. This may be because of two reasons – this sector is a well performing industry with higher profits and they pay higher wages, or there is shortage of labor so to retain employees they have to pay higher wages. The other sector with higher wages is the Gasoline Stations (except those with convenience stores) sector, with wages about 10% higher than the national average. Table 14: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Wages above National Averages NAICS
NAICS Definition
541213 Tax Preparation Services 447190 Other Gasoline Stations
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Wages Compared to Nation5
1 3
3 9
$29,483 $23,026
45.71% 10.40%
Cluster Business and Financial Services Energy (Fossil and Renewable)
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
5
Wages compared to nation – the difference in county & national average wages for a particular industry as a percentage of the national average.
22
LINCOLN COUNTY
Shift Share Analysis Shift share analysis breaks down changes in employment (growth or decline) over a period of time into three components: National Growth Share, Industry Mix Share and Local Share. This analysis is used to account for the competitiveness of a region’s industries and to analyze the local economic base6. National Growth Share This is the share of growth (decline) in local employment that can be attributed to growth (decline) in employment at the national level. National Growth Share = Employment in base year * National employment growth rate Industry Mix Share This is the growth (decline) in employment in the region that can be attributed to the growth (decline) in that particular industry at the national level. Industry Mix Share = Employment in base year *(Industry’s National Growth rate – National employment growth rate) Local Share This is the share of growth (decline) in employment in a region that can be attributed to the competitiveness of a region. Local Share = Employment in base year *(Region’s industry growth rate – National Industry growth rate) The industry with the highest local share in growth is the New Single-Family Housing Construction sector. The employment in the sector increased by 18 jobs, and out of those about 17 can be attributed to local growth (Table 15). The second highest growth in employment was in the Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers sector. In this industry there was a net growth of 18 jobs, all of which were attributable to local growth in the region.
6
Pennstate (2003) Using Employment data to better understand your local economy.
23
LINCOLN COUNTY Table 15: Industries with Highest Local Share of Growth – Shift Share Analysis Lincoln County NAICS 236115 424910 561710 722110 327991 423820 541110 237310 446110 447110 452990
NAICS Definition New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders)
Net Growth
National Growth Share
Industry Mix Share
Local Share
18
0.37
0.93
16.70
18 17 11 9
0.16 0.16 1.69 0.69
-0.18 0.05 0.97 3.77
18.02 16.79 8.34 4.54
9
0.95
-0.79
8.84
7 6 5 4 4
0.05 0.05 0.16 0.79 0.32
-0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.89 -0.11
6.98 5.97 4.89 4.09 3.80
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Exterminating and Pest Control Services Full-Service Restaurants Cut Stone And Stone Product Manufacturing Farm And Garden Machinery And Equipment Merchant Wholesalers Lessors Of Other Non-financial Intangible Assets Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Pharmacies And Drug Stores Gasoline Stations With Convenience Stores All Other General Merchandise Stores
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group
24
LINCOLN COUNTY
Clusters in Lincoln County Traded Clusters The cluster with highest LQ is the Agribusiness cluster (LQ of 6.84), but it has a low growth rate of 2.79% and wages about 32% less than the national averages. Other clusters with high LQ are Chemicals & Chemical-based Products (LQ of 2.07) and Energy (LQ of 1.51). The Printing & Publishing cluster has the highest growth rate of 25.99%. Other clusters with high growth rates are the Energy and Chemical & Chemical-based Products clusters. Table 16: Clusters in Lincoln County Cluster Advanced Materials Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology Apparel and Textiles Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Visitor Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) Business and Financial Services Chemicals and Chemical-Based Products Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Defense and Security Education and Knowledge Cluster Electrical Equipment, Appliance and Component Manufacturing Energy (Fossil and Renewable) Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Forest and Wood Products Glass and Ceramics Information Technology and Telecommunications Machinery Manufacturing Mining
Average Wages
Average Wages Compared to National Average
Growth Rate
Establishments
Employment
0 13 0 1 3 11 1 0 2 1
0 101 0 4 47 25 22 0 3 2
N $23,080 N $2,844 $19,592 $26,931 $21,594 N $19,154 $28,644
N -32.50% N -91.33% -53.25% -64.57% -61.05% N -70.85% -34.64%
N 2.79% N -47.09% -16.59% -2.53% 19.17% N -40.16% N
N 6.84 N 0.19 0.92 0.48 2.07 N 0.17 0.20
0
0
N
N
N
N
12.3 0 0 0 3.3 0 1
51 0 0 0 3 0 0
$19,515 N N N $25,484 N N
-67.34% N N N -66.32% N N
8.44% N N N -40.16% N N
1.51 N N N 0.11 N N
25
LQ
LINCOLN COUNTY Primary Metal Manufacturing Printing and Publishing Transportation and Logistics Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Total All Industries
0 1 3 0 93
0 2 7 0 500
N $28,644 $19,947 N $18,735
N -45.08% -53.41% N -55.82%
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group Highlighted cells represent values higher than specified criteria values
IT & Telecom, 0.11 Education & Knowledge Cluster, 0.2
Printing & Publishing, 0.18
Transportation & Logistics, 0.4
Energy , 1.51
Defense and Security, 0.17 Agribusiness & Food Processing, 6.84
Chemicals, 2.07
Business & Financial Services, 0.48 Biomedical/Biotech nical , 0.92
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, 0.19
Figure 10: Location Quotients for Various Clusters in Lincoln County
26
N 25.99% -22.43% N -1.43%
N 0.18 0.40 N 1.00
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 11: Traded Clusters in Lincoln County 27
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 12: Traded Cluster Location Quotients for Lincoln County
28
LINCOLN COUNTY Local Clusters Lincoln County has a few local sectors with high growth rates and high LQ, but none of the sectors have wages higher than national averages. The Local Health Services sector has the highest growth rate of about 91% and a LQ of 0.89. Other sectors with high growth rates are the Local Real Estate, Construction & Development sector (37.95%)and the Local Retail Clothing & Accessories sector (22.39%). The sectors with high LQ are the Local Financial Services sector (3.41); Local Utilities (2.76) and Local Retail Clothing & Accessories. Table 17: Local Clusters in Lincoln County Cluster
Average Wages
Average Wages Compared to National Average
Growth Rate
Establishments
Employment
Local Commercial Services Local Community & Civic Organizations Local Education & Training Local Entertainment & Media Local Financial Services Local Food and Beverages Processing & Distribution
2 5 0 0 4
21 9 0 0 30
$20,997 $14,982 N N $29,867
-49.38% -50.53% N N -41.68%
5.27% -11.54% N N -2.13%
0.56 1.41 N N 3.41
5
47
$9,354
-63.14%
5.52%
2.03
Local Health Services Local Hospitality Local Household Goods & Services Local Industrial Products & Services Local Logistical Services Local Motor Vehicle Products & Services Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local Real Estate, Construction & Development Local Retail Clothing & Accessories Local Utilities
5 7 3 0 0 7 0 5 2 2
21 57 4 0 0 11 0 42 11 5
$14,007 $5,632 $13,546 N N $13,140 N $22,630 $9,944 $24,023
-70.83% -60.44% -64.21% N N -64.30% N -53.28% -50.14% -46.23%
91.29% -6.17% -26.32% N N -16.65% N 37.95% 22.39% -5.90%
0.89 1.34 0.18 N N 0.83 N 2.48 0.55 2.76
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group Highlighted cells represent values higher than specified criteria values
29
LQ
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 13: Local Clusters in Lincoln County
30
Lincoln County
North Central Kansas County Profiles
ROUGH DRAFT
Project funding support provided by Rural Business Tax Credits from the Kansas Department of Commerce through NCKCN, an affiliate of North Central Regional Planning Commission.
Advanced Manufacturing Institute 510 McCall Road Manhattan, KS – 66502-5034 785-532-7044 785-532-7031
LINCOLN COUNTY
Section I Overview of Lincoln County
Lincoln County is one of 105 counties of the sunflower state located in the north central part of Kansas. The county seat is the City of Lincoln.
2
LINCOLN COUNTY
County Profile - Lincoln County, KS Lincoln County is one of the 105 counties in the state of Kansas. The 2007 populations estimate lists the population to be 3,285. According to 2000 estimates, it has 718.87 square miles in land area and a population density of five people per square mile. The average household size is 2.29 persons (2000) and median household income is $31,110 (2004) (US census Bureau).
Population Estimates Lincoln County has a population of 3,285 as of July 1, 2007 (US Census Bureau). The population decreased by 8.19% from the year 2000 to 2007. As per the 2000 census survey, population of the county was 3,578 with median age of 43.7 years. In 2000, Lincoln County had 18.5% of its population under the age of 15 years, 19.1% in the age group 15 to 34 years, 34.1% in the age group 35 years to 59 years and 28.4% of population above 60 years of age. Table 1: Population Estimates for Lincoln County Year Ending July 1,2007 July 1,2006 July 1,2005 July 1,2004 July 1,2003 July 1,2002 July 1,2001 July 1,2000 Census 2000 April 1,2000 2000 to 2007 % change 1990 to 2000 % change
Lincoln County 3,285 3,282 3,371 3,361 3,493 3,486 3,546 3,574 3,578
Population Estimates
-8.19% -2.1%
Source: US Census Bureau
3
Kansas 2,775,997 2,755,817 2,741,665 2,730,828 2,721,824 2,712,383 2,700,979 2,692,890 2,688,418 3.26% 8.5%
LINCOLN COUNTY 3,050,000 2,550,000 2,050,000 1,550,000 Kansas 1,050,000 550,000 50,000 12,000 Lincoln
10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 1900
1910
1920
1930
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
Source: US census Bureau
Figure 1: Population Change in the Last Century Table 2: Sex and Age of Population (2000 Census) SEX AND AGE Male Female Under 5 years 5 to 9 years 10 to 14 years 15 to 19 years 20 to 24 years 25 to 34 years 35 to 44 years 45 to 54 years 55 to 59 years 60 to 64 years 65 to 74 years 75 to 84 years 85 years and over
Count 1,754 1,824 185 210 265 253 125 304 514 524 181 175 390 298 154
Source: US Census Bureau
4
Percentage 49 51 5.2 5.9 7.4 7.1 3.5 8.5 14.4 14.6 5.1 4.9 10.9 8.3 4.3
LINCOLN COUNTY
Household Income Median household income for Lincoln County is $32,322 (2005) which is 24.59% less than the state median income. The median household income for Lincoln County has declined by 10.75% from 2000 to 2005, and the rate is more than the rate at which the state median income has declined at 9.9% Table 3: Median Income in Lincoln County Median Income Median household income in 2005 Median household income in 1999 (adj. for inflation1) 5-year percent change 2000 to 2005
Lincoln $32,322 $36,215 -10.75%
Kansas $42,861 $47622 -9.9%
Source: USDA ERS (www.ers.usda.gov) and US Census Bureau
$60,000 $50,000
$47,622
$42,861
$40,000
$36,215
$32,322
$30,000
Lincoln
$20,000
Kansas
$10,000 $0 Median household income in 2005 Median household income in 1999
Figure 2: Median Income in Lincoln County and Kansas
Poverty Rates The current poverty rate for Lincoln County is less than that of the state. In 2000, Lincoln County’s poverty rate was 9.7% which increased to 11.9% in 2005. The poverty rate for Kansas in the same period went from 8.9% to 11.7%. Table 4: Poverty Estimates for Lincoln County Poverty Estimates Poverty rate in 2005 In 2000 Poverty rate for children under 18 in 2005 In 2000
Lincoln 11.9 9.7
5-Year % Change 22.7%
Kansas 11.7 8.9
17.1 14.5
17.9%
15.2 11.9
Source: US Census Bureau (Downloaded from www.stats.indiana.edu) 1
Value 2005 dollars term calculated using CPI inflation calculator available at Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://data.bls.gov/cgi-bin/cpicalc.pl. The CPI inflation calculator uses the average Consumer Price Index for a given calendar year. This data represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. This index value has been calculated every year since 1913. For the current year, the latest monthly index value is used (www.bls.gov).
5
LINC COLN COUN NTY
Labor Force F Lincoln County’s cu urrent unem mployment rate is 3.8% % which is less than the t state ra ate of 4.1%. The T total lab bor force fo or the coun nty declined d by 4.7% in the last five years, and along wiith that the unemploye ed labor force also decclined by 14 4.8% in the last five ye ears. Table 5: Labor Force Annua al Averages s for Linco oln County y Labor Fo orce Annual Averages A in 2007 Total Labo or Force 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Employed d 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Unemployyed 5-year % change 10-yearr % change Unemployyment Rate 5-year % change 10-yearr % change
Linco oln County
Kansas
1,808 -4.7% 5.1% 1,739 -4.2% 4.6% 69 -14.8% 21.1% 3.8 -11.6% 15.2%
1,478,781 3.8% 6.9% 1,418,666 5.0% 6.7% 60,115 -17.8% 12.0% 4.1 -19.6% 5.1%
Source: US Bureau of Laborr Statistics (Down nloaded from ww ww.stats.indiana.edu)
4%
Employed Unemployed
96%
F Figure 3: Employed E a Unemp and ployed Lab bor Force in i Lincoln County
6
LINCOLN COUNTY
Educational Attainment About eighty-five percent of the population above the age of 25 has at least a high school degree. 26.3% of the population above the age of twenty-five had some college education, and 23.1% hold an associate or college degree. Table 6: Educational Attainment – Lincoln County Educational Attainment: Census 2000 Total Population 25 and Older Less Than 9th Grade 9th to 12th, No Diploma High School Graduate (incl. equiv.) Some College, No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Graduate or Professional Degree
Lincoln 2,548 185 198 906 669 146 316 128
Percent of Population 25+ 100.0% 7.3% 7.8% 35.6% 26.3% 5.7% 12.4% 5.0%
Kansas 1,701,207 88,124 149,675 507,612 417,722 99,096 290,271 148,707
Percent of Population 25+ 100.0% 5.2% 8.8% 29.8% 24.6% 5.8% 17.1% 8.7%
Source: US Census Bureau
100% 90% 80%
5.00% 12.40% 5.70%
17.10%
24.60%
40% 35.60%
29.80%
20% 10% 0%
Bachelor's Degree Associate Degree
26.30%
50% 30%
Graduate or Professional Degree
5.80%
70% 60%
8.70%
7.80% 7.30%
8.80% 5.20%
Lincoln
Kansas
Some College, No Degree High School Graduate (incl. equiv.) 9th to 12th, No Diploma
Figure 4: Educational Attainment – Lincoln County
7
LINCOLN COUNTY
Workers Commuting to Work More than seventy-three percent of the labor force work in the county itself. The maximum outflow of workers from Lincoln County is to Saline County (176 workers commute to Saline County for work). Also, another 98 workers commute to Ellsworth from Lincoln County. Table 7: Workers (Commuting to Work) Living in Lincoln County Workers Living in County in 2000 Total Working in County Working Elsewhere Barber Co. KS Barton Co. KS Cloud Co. KS Ellis Co. KS Ellsworth Co. KS Lyon Co. KS McPherson Co. KS Mitchell Co. KS Osborne Co. KS Ottawa Co. KS Russell Co. KS Saline Co. KS Lincoln Co. NE Scotts Bluff Co. Thayer Co. NE Dallas Co. TX
Lincoln
Pct Dist. in County
Kansas
Pct Dist. in State
1,813 1,336 477 4 7 7 2 98 4 2 56 8 32 70 176 2 2 1 6
100.0% 73.69% 26.31% 0.22% 0.39% 0.39% 0.11% 5.41% 0.22% 0.11% 3.09% 0.44% 1.77% 3.86% 9.71% 0.11% 0.11% 0.06% 0.33%
1,310,746 1,214,739 96,007 -
100.0% 92.7% 7.3% -
Source: US Census Bureau (Includes only workers over 16 years old)
8
LINCOLN COUNTY
-- Less than 1% of residence county population commutes -- 1.0% -4.9% of residence county population commutes -- 5.0% - 9.9% of residence county population commutes -- 10.0% - 19.9% of residence county population commutes -- 20% or more residence county population commutes
Figure 5: Workers Commute from Lincoln County 9
LINCOLN COUNTY
The maximum inflow of workers into the Lincoln County is from Mitchell County. Fortyone workers commute to Lincoln County from Mitchell County for work, and thirty come from Ellsworth County. In total 126 workers commute to Lincoln County for work. Table 8: People Working in Lincoln County People Working in County in 2000 Total Living in County Living Elsewhere Ellsworth Co. KS Johnson Co. KS Mitchell Co. KS Ottawa Co. KS Reno Co. KS Russell Co. KS Saline Co. KS Sedgwick Co. KS
1,462 1,336
Pct Dist. in County 100.0% 91.38%
126 30 6 41 22 2 6 13 6
8.62% -
Lincoln
Source: US Census Bureau (Includes only workers over 16 years old.)
10
Kansas 1,317,070 1,214,739 102,331 -
Pct Dist. in State 100.0% 92.2% 7.8% -
LINCOLN COUNTY
-- Less than 1% of residence county population commutes -- 1.0% -4.9% of residence county population commutes -- 5.0% - 9.9% of residence county population commutes -- 10.0% - 19.9% of residence county population commutes -- 20% or more residence county population commutes
Figure 6: Workers Commuting to Lincoln County 11
Section – II Industry Analysis
LINCOLN COUNTY
Industry Analysis Industry Totals for Lincoln County Industry employment (number of jobs) decreased by 4.14% from 1990 to 2007 in Lincoln County. Average pay (after adjusting for inflation) has grown at a rate of 4.99%, and number of establishments in the same period increased by around 2.48%. Table 9: Annual Covered Employment & Wages2 over Time (NAICS) – Lincoln County Year 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999
Establishments
Employment
121 120 123 126 129 128 125 120 123 127
991 993 1004 986 1000 1003 1020 1023 1076 1086
Average Annual Pay $12,406 $12,881 $12,746 $13,421 $13,998 $14,231 $14,248 $14,566 $14,864 $15,408
Average Pay in Terms of 20073 Dollars (adj*) $19,681 $19,609 $18,837 $19,258 $19,584 $19,361 $18,829 $18,817 $18,908 $19,176
2
Covered Employment & Wages (CEW) also known as ES202 data are the product of a federal-state cooperative program, the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages (QCEW) program, also known as the ES-202 program. The data are derived from summaries of employment and total pay of workers covered by state and federal unemployment insurance (UI) legislation and provided by State Workforce Agencies (SWAs). The summaries are a result of the administration of state unemployment insurance programs that require most employers to pay quarterly taxes based on the employment and wages of workers covered by UI. (www.bls.gov). 3
Average wages in 2007 dollars term were calculated using CPI inflation calculator available at Bureau of Labor Statistics website http://data.bls.gov/cgibin/cpicalc.pl. The CPI inflation calculator uses the average Consumer Price Index for a given calendar year. This data represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. This index value has been calculated every year since 1913. For the current year, the latest monthly index value is used (www.bls.gov).
13
LINCOLN COUNTY Year 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Change from 1990 to 2007 Percent change from 1990 to 2007
Establishments
Employment
125 124 124 125 125 120 118 124 3 2.48%
1005 949 971 951 887 897 939 950 -41 -4.14%
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) *adj = Adjusted for Inflation.
14
Average Annual Pay $16,295 $17,327 $17,625 $17,214 $17,997 $18,562 $19,860 $20,663 8,257 66.56%
Average Pay in Terms of 20073 Dollars (adj*) $19,620 $20,286 $20,314 $19,398 $19,754 $19,707 $20,426 $20,663 982 4.99%
120
118
120
120
124
125
125
124
124
125
123
125
127
128
123 120
121
125
126
Establishments 130
129
LINCOLN COUNTY
115
950
939
897
887
951
971
1005
1086
1076
1023
1020
1003
1000
949
1000
986
1004
991
Employment 1200
993
110
800 600 400
$20,663
$20,426
$19,707
$19,754
$19,398
$20,314
$19,620
$19,176
$18,908
$18,817
$19,584
$18,829
$19,000
$19,361
$19,500
$19,258
$20,000
$18,837
$20,500
$19,609
$21,000
$19,681
0 Average Pay in terms of 2007
$20,286
200
$18,500 $18,000 $17,500 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Figure 7: Change in Establishments, Employment and Average Annual Wages in the County 15
LINCOLN COUNTY
Jobs and Average Wages by Industry Retail Trade and Public Administration are sectors with the most establishments in Lincoln County. There are twenty establishments in the Retail Trade sector and nineteen in Public Administration. Public Administration also has the maximum number of jobs (187). The highest paid sector is the Professional, Scientific and Technical Services sector with annual average wages of $46,269. Other high wage paying sectors are: Construction (annual average wages of $29,723), Finance & Insurance (annual average wages of $29,286) and Transportation & Warehousing (annual average wages of $28,044). Table 10: Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs, and Average Wages – Lincoln County Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs & Average Wages (2007) Total Covered Employment and Wages Private Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting Mining Utilities Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Transportation and Warehousing Information Finance and Insurance Real Estate and Rental and Leasing Professional, Scientific, and Technical Services Management of Companies and Enterprises
Establishments 124 95 4 1 NA 12 1 10 20 7 3 8 NA 8 NA
Jobs
NA 90 N 77 98 29 N 47 NA 16 NA
Annual Average Wages $20,663 $19,678 $22,128 N NA $29,723 N $22,402 $11,207 $28,044 N $29,286 NA $46,269 NA
950 511 26
Administrative and Support and Waste Management and Remediation Services
5
30
$20,773
Educational Services Health Care and Social Assistance Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation Accommodation and Food Services
4 5 1 7
N N N N
N N N N
16
LINCOLN COUNTY Industry Distribution of Establishments, Jobs & Average Wages (2007) Other Services (except Public Administration) Public Administration
Establishments
Jobs 11 19
24 187
Annual Average Wages $15,413 $16,880
Source: US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) N – Non-disclosed, NA- Not Applicable
Establishments
Jobs
Agriculture
Mining
Utilities
Construction
Manufacturing
Wholesale Trade
Retail Trade
Transportation & Warehousing
Information
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate
Professional & Technical Services
Management of Companies
Waste Management
Educational Services
Health Care & Social Assistance
Arts & Entertainment
Accommodation & Food Services
Other Services
Public Administration
Figure 8: Establishments and Jobs in Various Industry Sectors in Lincoln County
17
LINCOLN COUNTY Agriculture
Annual Average Wage
Mining
$46,269
Utilities
$50,000
Construction Manufacturing Wholesale Trade
$45,000
Retail Trade $29,286
Information Finance & Insurance $15,413 $16,880
Real Estate
$11,207
$20,000
Transportation & Warehousing
$20,773
$25,000
$28,044
$30,000
$22,128
$35,000
$22,402
$29,723
$40,000
$15,000
Professional & Technical Services Management of Companies Waste Management Educational Services Health Care & Social Assistance
$10,000
Arts & Entertainment
$5,000 0 0 0 0
0
0
0
0
0 0
Accommodation & Food Services
$0
Other Services Public Administration
Figure 9: Average Wage in Various Industries in Lincoln County
18
LINCOLN COUNTY
Key Industries Lincoln County is home to some very well performing industries. These industries may be a part of existing or emerging clusters. For identifying key industries and clusters, three criteria were used: 1. Location Quotient – Location quotients (LQ) for industries at 6-digit NAICS level were calculated with US industry employment as base. The cutoff for LQ was taken as 1.25 (based on previous studies, especially Cortright 2003) 2. Average Wages – Average wages at 6-digit NAICS codes were compared to US average wages. If any industry has average wages 10% above the US average, it is considered to be a good performing industry. 3. Growth Rate – Growth rates for the employment were calculated over three year time period from 2003 to 20064; a growth rate above 5% is considered to be an indicator of good industry performance. Any industry that satisfies one of these three conditions is either a good performing industry or an industry with good potential for growth. There may or may not be a cluster existing in a region for every good performing industry, but if there are good performing industries, a cluster may emerge in the near future. (For further details of methodology, please see Appendix B). The industry satisfying all three of the above stated criteria is Gasoline Stations (except those with convenience stores) (NAICS 447190). This sector has grown by 8.74% over the last three years, and the wages are around 10% more than the national average. The location quotient for the sector is 17.67(Table 11). Table 11: 6 Digit NAICS Codes with High Wages, Location Quotients and Growth Differentials NAICS 447190
NAICS Definition Other Gasoline Stations
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
3
9
$23,026
Higher Wages than Nation 10.40%
Growth Differentials
Location Quotient
8.74%
17.67
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
4
There were two reasons for selecting 2003 base year. 1) The numbers were more likely to be free from 9/11 impacts as compared to 2001 or 2002 numbers. 2) NAICS definitions changed in 2002, so it was very difficult to bridge between 2002 & 1997 codes for some industries.
19
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with High Growth Rates The highest growth rate is for the Highway, Street & Bridge Construction sector and the Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers sector. Out of the top ten highest growth sectors, three are a part of the Local Real Estate, Construction & Development clusters. These sectors are Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction; New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders) and Other Building Material Dealers. Table 12: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Highest Growth Rates NAICS
NAICS Definition
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Growth Differentials
Cluster
237310
Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction
1
7
$27,702
91.29%
Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
424910
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
1
21
$20,953
91.29%
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
561710
1
20
$20,934
88.21%
236115
Exterminating and Pest Control Services New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders)
1
25
$22,392
52.86%
Local Commercial Services Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
541611
Administrative Management Consulting Services
1
3
$39,804
44.22%
Business and Financial Services
446110
Pharmacies and Drug Stores
1
8
$15,473
38.67%
Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences)
444190
Other Building Material Dealers
1
2
$15,624
25.99%
Local Real Estate, Construction & Development
327991
Cut Stone and Stone Product Manufacturing
1
22
$21,594
19.17%
Chemicals and Chemical-based Products
452990
All Other General Merchandise Stores
1
10
$9,780
18.56%
Local Retail Clothing & Accessories
524210
Insurance Agencies and Brokerages
3
8
$18,462
16.96%
Business and Financial Services
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
20
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with Highest Location Quotients The sector Livestock Wholesalers (NAICS 424520) has the highest LQ in Lincoln County of 208.23. Four out of the ten sectors with high LQ are a part of the Agribusiness cluster. The sectors are Livestock Wholesalers; Farm and Garden Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers; Grain and Field Bean Wholesalers and Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers. Table 13: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Highest Location Quotients NAICS
NAICS Definition
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Location Quotient
Cluster
424520
Livestock Wholesalers
1
19
$7,537
208.23
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
327991
Cut Stone and Stone Product Manufacturing
1
22
$21,594
163.70
Chemicals and Chemical-based Products
423820
Farm and Garden Machinery and Equipment Merchant Wholesalers
2
27
$33,157
60.76
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
424510
Grain and Field Bean Wholesalers
5
9
$30,808
47.60
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
561710
Exterminating and Pest Control Services
1
20
$20,934
46.49
Local Commercial Services
424910
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers
1
21
$20,953
43.91
Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology
493130
Farm Product Warehousing and Storage
1
1
$9,828
24.78
Transportation & Logistics
812210 447190 624210
Funeral Homes and Funeral Services Other Gasoline Stations Community Food Services
1 3 1
10 9 2
$10,583 $23,026 $18,201
21.94 17.67 17.26
Local Health Services Energy (Fossil and Renewable) Local Health Services
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
21
LINCOLN COUNTY Industries with Wages Higher than National Averages The county’s Tax Preparation Services (NAICS 541213) have average wages around 45% higher than the national averages. This may be because of two reasons – this sector is a well performing industry with higher profits and they pay higher wages, or there is shortage of labor so to retain employees they have to pay higher wages. The other sector with higher wages is the Gasoline Stations (except those with convenience stores) sector, with wages about 10% higher than the national average. Table 14: Top 10 Industries (6-digit NAICS) with Wages above National Averages NAICS
NAICS Definition
541213 Tax Preparation Services 447190 Other Gasoline Stations
Establishments
Employment
Average Wages
Wages Compared to Nation5
1 3
3 9
$29,483 $23,026
45.71% 10.40%
Cluster Business and Financial Services Energy (Fossil and Renewable)
Source: ES202 2006 data, IMPLAN MIG Group
5
Wages compared to nation – the difference in county & national average wages for a particular industry as a percentage of the national average.
22
LINCOLN COUNTY
Shift Share Analysis Shift share analysis breaks down changes in employment (growth or decline) over a period of time into three components: National Growth Share, Industry Mix Share and Local Share. This analysis is used to account for the competitiveness of a region’s industries and to analyze the local economic base6. National Growth Share This is the share of growth (decline) in local employment that can be attributed to growth (decline) in employment at the national level. National Growth Share = Employment in base year * National employment growth rate Industry Mix Share This is the growth (decline) in employment in the region that can be attributed to the growth (decline) in that particular industry at the national level. Industry Mix Share = Employment in base year *(Industry’s National Growth rate – National employment growth rate) Local Share This is the share of growth (decline) in employment in a region that can be attributed to the competitiveness of a region. Local Share = Employment in base year *(Region’s industry growth rate – National Industry growth rate) The industry with the highest local share in growth is the New Single-Family Housing Construction sector. The employment in the sector increased by 18 jobs, and out of those about 17 can be attributed to local growth (Table 15). The second highest growth in employment was in the Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers sector. In this industry there was a net growth of 18 jobs, all of which were attributable to local growth in the region.
6
Pennstate (2003) Using Employment data to better understand your local economy.
23
LINCOLN COUNTY Table 15: Industries with Highest Local Share of Growth – Shift Share Analysis Lincoln County NAICS 236115 424910 561710 722110 327991 423820 541110 237310 446110 447110 452990
NAICS Definition New Single-Family Housing Construction (except Operative Builders)
Net Growth
National Growth Share
Industry Mix Share
Local Share
18
0.37
0.93
16.70
18 17 11 9
0.16 0.16 1.69 0.69
-0.18 0.05 0.97 3.77
18.02 16.79 8.34 4.54
9
0.95
-0.79
8.84
7 6 5 4 4
0.05 0.05 0.16 0.79 0.32
-0.04 -0.02 -0.05 -0.89 -0.11
6.98 5.97 4.89 4.09 3.80
Farm Supplies Merchant Wholesalers Exterminating and Pest Control Services Full-Service Restaurants Cut Stone And Stone Product Manufacturing Farm And Garden Machinery And Equipment Merchant Wholesalers Lessors Of Other Non-financial Intangible Assets Highway, Street, and Bridge Construction Pharmacies And Drug Stores Gasoline Stations With Convenience Stores All Other General Merchandise Stores
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group
24
LINCOLN COUNTY
Clusters in Lincoln County Traded Clusters The cluster with highest LQ is the Agribusiness cluster (LQ of 6.84), but it has a low growth rate of 2.79% and wages about 32% less than the national averages. Other clusters with high LQ are Chemicals & Chemical-based Products (LQ of 2.07) and Energy (LQ of 1.51). The Printing & Publishing cluster has the highest growth rate of 25.99%. Other clusters with high growth rates are the Energy and Chemical & Chemical-based Products clusters. Table 16: Clusters in Lincoln County Cluster Advanced Materials Agribusiness, Food Processing and Technology Apparel and Textiles Arts, Entertainment, Recreation and Visitor Biomedical/Biotechnical (Life Sciences) Business and Financial Services Chemicals and Chemical-Based Products Computer and Electronic Product Manufacturing Defense and Security Education and Knowledge Cluster Electrical Equipment, Appliance and Component Manufacturing Energy (Fossil and Renewable) Fabricated Metal Product Manufacturing Forest and Wood Products Glass and Ceramics Information Technology and Telecommunications Machinery Manufacturing Mining
Average Wages
Average Wages Compared to National Average
Growth Rate
Establishments
Employment
0 13 0 1 3 11 1 0 2 1
0 101 0 4 47 25 22 0 3 2
N $23,080 N $2,844 $19,592 $26,931 $21,594 N $19,154 $28,644
N -32.50% N -91.33% -53.25% -64.57% -61.05% N -70.85% -34.64%
N 2.79% N -47.09% -16.59% -2.53% 19.17% N -40.16% N
N 6.84 N 0.19 0.92 0.48 2.07 N 0.17 0.20
0
0
N
N
N
N
12.3 0 0 0 3.3 0 1
51 0 0 0 3 0 0
$19,515 N N N $25,484 N N
-67.34% N N N -66.32% N N
8.44% N N N -40.16% N N
1.51 N N N 0.11 N N
25
LQ
LINCOLN COUNTY Primary Metal Manufacturing Printing and Publishing Transportation and Logistics Transportation Equipment Manufacturing Total All Industries
0 1 3 0 93
0 2 7 0 500
N $28,644 $19,947 N $18,735
N -45.08% -53.41% N -55.82%
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group Highlighted cells represent values higher than specified criteria values
IT & Telecom, 0.11 Education & Knowledge Cluster, 0.2
Printing & Publishing, 0.18
Transportation & Logistics, 0.4
Energy , 1.51
Defense and Security, 0.17 Agribusiness & Food Processing, 6.84
Chemicals, 2.07
Business & Financial Services, 0.48 Biomedical/Biotech nical , 0.92
Arts, Entertainment & Recreation, 0.19
Figure 10: Location Quotients for Various Clusters in Lincoln County
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N 25.99% -22.43% N -1.43%
N 0.18 0.40 N 1.00
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 11: Traded Clusters in Lincoln County 27
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 12: Traded Cluster Location Quotients for Lincoln County
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LINCOLN COUNTY Local Clusters Lincoln County has a few local sectors with high growth rates and high LQ, but none of the sectors have wages higher than national averages. The Local Health Services sector has the highest growth rate of about 91% and a LQ of 0.89. Other sectors with high growth rates are the Local Real Estate, Construction & Development sector (37.95%)and the Local Retail Clothing & Accessories sector (22.39%). The sectors with high LQ are the Local Financial Services sector (3.41); Local Utilities (2.76) and Local Retail Clothing & Accessories. Table 17: Local Clusters in Lincoln County Cluster
Average Wages
Average Wages Compared to National Average
Growth Rate
Establishments
Employment
Local Commercial Services Local Community & Civic Organizations Local Education & Training Local Entertainment & Media Local Financial Services Local Food and Beverages Processing & Distribution
2 5 0 0 4
21 9 0 0 30
$20,997 $14,982 N N $29,867
-49.38% -50.53% N N -41.68%
5.27% -11.54% N N -2.13%
0.56 1.41 N N 3.41
5
47
$9,354
-63.14%
5.52%
2.03
Local Health Services Local Hospitality Local Household Goods & Services Local Industrial Products & Services Local Logistical Services Local Motor Vehicle Products & Services Local Personal Services (Non-Medical) Local Real Estate, Construction & Development Local Retail Clothing & Accessories Local Utilities
5 7 3 0 0 7 0 5 2 2
21 57 4 0 0 11 0 42 11 5
$14,007 $5,632 $13,546 N N $13,140 N $22,630 $9,944 $24,023
-70.83% -60.44% -64.21% N N -64.30% N -53.28% -50.14% -46.23%
91.29% -6.17% -26.32% N N -16.65% N 37.95% 22.39% -5.90%
0.89 1.34 0.18 N N 0.83 N 2.48 0.55 2.76
Data Source: ES202 data, IMPLAN MIG group Highlighted cells represent values higher than specified criteria values
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LQ
LINCOLN COUNTY
Figure 13: Local Clusters in Lincoln County
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