Kinnaras Capital Management LLC
www.kinnaras.com
81 Atlantic Street • Suite 6 • Stamford, CT 06901 • Phone: 203-252-7654 • Fax: 860-529-7167
An Undervalued Opportunity
Disclaimer All analysis, recommendations, and conclusions provided herein by Kinnaras Capital Management LLC (“Kinnaras”) are based on publicly available information. Projections, estimates, and related statements are based on various assumptions by Kinnaras regarding the future performance of Advocat Inc. (“AVCA” or the “Company”) and are subject to economic, industry, regulatory, and other uncertainties. No representations, express or implied, are made as to the accuracy or completeness of such statements, estimates, or projections, or with respect to any other materials herein. Actual results may vary materially from the estimates and projected results contained in this presentation. This presentation is for general information purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security including any interest in AVCA. Neither Kinnaras nor any associated persons or entities makes any warranty, express or implied, as to the suitability of AVCA or any other security, or assumes any responsibility or liability for any losses, damages, costs, or expenses, of any kind or description, arising out of your use of this presentation or your investment in AVCA or any other security. You understand that you are solely responsible for reviewing any security, its offering, and performing additional due diligence as you may deem appropriate, including consulting your own legal and tax advisers, and that any information provided in this presentation shall not form the primary basis for your investment decision. This material is based upon information Kinnaras believes to be reliable but Kinnaras does not represent that it is accurate, complete, and/or up-to-date and, if applicable, time indicated. Kinnaras does not accept any responsibility to update any opinion, analyses, or other information contained in this presentation. Kinnaras manages funds that are in the business of buying and selling public securities. It is possible that future developments will cause Kinnaras to change its position regarding the Company and reduce, dispose of, or change the form of its investment in the AVCA.
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Table of Contents I.
Current Situation Review
II. Advocat Overview
III. Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA
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I. Current Situation Review
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Current Situation Advocat (“AVCA” or the “Company”) announced Q4 and Fiscal Year 2006 results at the close of the market on March 1st, 2007 ► Full year revenue, average occupancy, income from continuing operations (before stock compensation) all increased compared to prior year ► Management provided guidance for the first time in AVCA’s recent history FY 2007 Revenues of $228MM FY 2007 EPS of ($0.08) to $0.01 Funds from Operations of $14MM AVCA stock plummeted nearly 30% on March 2nd following FY 2006 results and a conference call with management ► Shares have experienced pressure since Q3 results in November Kinnaras Capital Management (“Kinnaras”) is a “bagholder” of AVCA shares but believes the Company is considerably undervalued and still represents the most compelling opportunity in the nursing facility sector ► Relative and absolute valuation ► Attractive acquisition target for strategic and financial buyers ► Opportunity to improve payor mix and occupancy Kinnaras is not a significant shareholder in the Company due to the low level of capital it currently manages ► AVCA represents a significant position in Kinnaras’ fund Kinnaras Capital Management
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II. Advocat Overview
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Advocat Overview AVCA operates skilled nursing centers and assisted living facilities located primarily in nonmetropolitan Southeast regions ► 43 nursing centers, 9 of which are owned, containing 4,505 licensed beds and 78 assisted living units ► Facilities in Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, Tennessee, Texas and West Virginia Favorable industry dynamics ► Growing target age group ► Faster hospital discharge rate and increasing referrals to lower cost alternatives such as nursing homes ► Barriers to entry with Certificates of Need requirements Government restrictions on construction cost and start-up expense reimbursement also inhibits unit expansion benefiting existing providers The Company has experienced a dramatic turnaround since recovering from the brink of oblivion during 1999-2001 ► Multiple professional liability lawsuits and judgments coupled with reduced Medicare reimbursement rates pressured AVCA Systematic of other nursing home operators as Mariner Post-Acute Network, Vencor, Sun Healthcare, and Genesis Healthcare all filed for bankruptcy during that time ► Stock price went from $0.13 per share in 2003 to nearly $21 per share by fall of 2006 Currently between $11-$12 per share Kinnaras Capital Management
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Historical Financial Review AVCA has consistently improved its profitability1,2,3 $250 $225 $200 $175 $150 $125 $100 $75 $50 $25 $0 2002
2003
Revenue
2004
2005
Adjusted EBITDA
2006
2007E
FFO less CapEx
1) Adjusted EBITDA omits Professional Liability (“PL”) expense/benefit to improve comparability of operating results; including PL figures would have resulted in higher EBITDA for 2004-2006 and lower EBITDA in 2002-2003 2) FFO less CapEx is derived from Funds from Operations as defined by AVCA as Operating Cash Flow before Changes in Working Capital, less maintenance CapEx 3) 2007 Revenue estimate based on the average of guidance figures, adjusted EBITDA based on Kinnaras estimate which excludes any PL expense or benefit; FFO less CapEx figure based on guidance of $14.0MM less $4.5MM
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AVCA vs. Peer Group AVCA’s operating metrics and debt financing are similar or superior to those of its peers… LTM EBITDA Margin 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% AVCA
BKD
CSU
FVE
GHCI
HCR
NHC
ODSY
SUNH
SRZ
CSU
FVE
GHCI
HCR
NHC
ODSY
SUNH
SRZ
CSU
FVE
GHCI
HCR
NHC
ODSY
SUNH
SRZ
LTM Net Income Margin 10% 5% 0% -5%
AVCA
BKD
-10% -15%
Net Debt/LTM EBITDA 15.0x 10.0x 5.0x 0.0x AVCA
BKD
Note: Redline denotes median value, AVCA net income margin excludes impact of income tax benefit, with a 35% tax provision AVCA net income margin would be approximately 3.6% and comparable to industry peers
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AVCA vs. Peer Group (con’t) …yet the Company remains significantly undervalued across many key valuation metrics Company Name Brookdale Senior Living Inc.
Ticker NYSE:BKD
Description Operates 80 senior living facilities 14,439 units/beds, 295 assisted living facilities with 12,529 units/beds, 7 continuing care retirement communities, or CCRCs, with 3,005 units/beds, and 1 skilled nursing facility with 82 units/beds.
Capital Senior Living Corp.
NYSE:CSU
Five Star Quality Care Inc.
AMEX:FVE
Genesis Healthcare Corp.
NasdaqNM:GHCI
Operates 58 senior living communities in 21 states, and a home care agency. Operates 153 communities containing 17,110 living units, including 102 independent and assisted living communities containing 12,403 living units, and 51 nursing homes containing 4,707 living units. Owns and operates 210 eldercare facilities, including 176 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living facilities, and 8 transitional care units. Genesis HealthCare also supplies contract rehabilitation therapy to approximately 600 healthcare providers.
Manor Care Inc.
NYSE:HCR
National Healthcare Corp.
AMEX:NHC
Odyssey Healthcare Inc. Sun Healthcare Group Inc.
NasdaqNM:ODSY NasdaqNM:SUNH
Sunrise Senior Living Inc.
NYSE:SRZ
Market Cap ($MM) EV ($MM) $4,524 $6,334
EV/ Revenue 4.8x
EV/ EBITDA 34.6x
P/E NM
P/TBV 3.9x
EV/ Forward Revenue 3.5x
P/ Forward EPS NM
$307
$484
3.0x
19.5x
NM
2.1x
2.5x
58.1x
$326
$400
0.5x
15.8x
NM
7.3x
0.4x
9.5x
$1,248
$1,654
0.9x
9.9x
33.3x
1.7x
0.9x
24.6x
Operates 278 skilled nursing facilities, 65 assisted living facilities, 116 hospice and home health offices, and 92 outpatient therapy clinics. Operates 74 long-term health care centers with a total of 9,177 licensed beds primarily in the southeastern United States.
$3,962
$4,938
1.4x
10.2x
25.1x
9.8x
1.3x
19.6x
$639
$530
1.0x
11.4x
17.9x
2.6x
NM
NM
Provide hospice care in the United States. Operates 134 skilled nursing facilities, 14 assisted and independent living facilities, 7 mental health facilities, and 3 specialty acute care hospitals with approximately 16,910 licensed beds located in 19 states. Operates 415 communities, including 397 communities in the United States, 11 communities in Canada, 5 communities in the United Kingdom, and 2 communities in Germany. Sunrise Senior Living also provided preopening management services to 50 communities under construction.
$442 $530
$372 $572
0.9x 0.5x
9.1x 10.6x
21.9x 26.7x
5.8x 7.0x
0.9x 0.5x
19.0x 27.4x
$1,990
$1,966
1.1x
10.1x
23.7x
4.5x
1.0x
34.6x
High
4.8x
34.6x
33.3x
9.8x
3.5x
58.1x
Low
0.5x
9.1x
17.9x
1.7x
0.4x
9.5x
Mean
1.6x
15.1x
25.0x
5.0x
1.4x
26.4x
Median
1.0x
11.0x
25.1x
4.9x
0.9x
22.1x
0.5x
4.3x
4.9x
4.9x
0.5x
11.4x
Advocat Inc.
NasdaqSC:AVCA
Operates 43 nursing centers containing 4,505 licensed nursing beds and 78 assisted living units.
$74
$104
Note: AVCA P/Forward EPS based on Kinnaras estimate of $1.19; statistic calculations exclude SRZ because latest filings are as of FY 2005
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Transaction Comparables Recent M&A transactions support the view that AVCA is undervalued Enterprise Value ($MM)
Equity Value EV/ ($MM) EV/ Rev EBITDA
Date
Buyer(s)
Target
Target Description
02/14/2007
Health Care Property Investors Inc. (NYSE:HCP)
Owns, develops, and operates assisted living facilities in North America with 23 income producing assisted living facility communities.
$1,892
$892
8.2x
26.1x
-
01/15/2007
Formation Capital, JER Partners
Sunrise Senior Living Real Estate Investment Trust (TSX:SZR.UN) Genesis Healthcare Corp. (NasdaqNM:GHCI)
Offers inpatient services through a network of skilled nursing and assisted living centers. Tthe company owns 210 eldercare facilities, including 176 skilled nursing facilities, 26 assisted living facilities, and 8 transitional care units.
$1,647
$1,246
0.9x
10.2x
32.8x
10/19/2006
Sun Healthcare Group Inc. (NasdaqNM:SUNH)
$624
$349
1.2x
-
-
$1,400
$1,400
-
-
-
$3,933
$3,933
3.6x
13.4x
-
06/26/2006 04/25/2006
Harborside Healthcare Corporation
Owns, operates, and manages 55 long-term care facilities including 53 skilled nursing facilities, one residential care facility, and one independent living facility. GE Healthcare Financial Services, Inc. Formation Capital LLC, 186 GE acquired 186 nursing homes comprising of over 21,000 beds in Florida and Nursing Homes other states from Formation. Apax Partners Worldwide, Brockton Capital, General Healthcare Group Offers acute care services, including medical and surgical, and nursing care. London & Regional Properties, Network Ltd. Healthcare Holdings Ltd. (JSE:NTC)
P/E
11/21/2005
Fillmore Capital Partners, LLC.
Beverly Enterprises Inc.
Provides healthcare services through the operation of nursing facilities, assisted living centers, hospice locations, and outpatient clinics in the United States. The company operates 351 nursing facilities, 18 assisted living centers, 52 hospice and home health locations, and 10 outpatient clinics.
$1,696
$1,369
0.8x
7.2x
15.0x
10/24/2005
Onex Corporation (TSX:OCX), Onex Partners, L.P.
Skilled Healthcare Group Inc.
Provides long term care facilities and post acute care services through 49 skilled nursing facilities, as well as five assisted living facilities that provide room and board, and social services.
$929
$638
2.4x
18.7x
35.0x
05/24/2005
Chartwell Seniors Housing REIT (TSX:CSH.UN) National Senior Care, Inc.
CPAC Care Holdings Ltd.
06/29/2004
Owns and operates six retirement facilities located in the Province of British Columbia. Provides skilled nursing and long-term health care services in the United States with approximately 254 Skilled Nursing Facilities and approximately 8 standalone assisted living facilities with approximately 31,400 licensed beds, and 12 skilled nursing facilities with approximately 638 licensed beds.
08/11/2003
PainCare Holdings Inc. (AMEX:PRZ)
Spine & Pain Center, P.C.
07/18/2003
Emeritus Corp. (AMEX:ESC)
Alterra Healthcare Corp.
06/30/2003
Select Medical Corp.
01/03/2003
Prometheus Assisted Living LLC
$69
$30
2.8x
13.8x
27.8x
$1,028
$659
0.6x
12.7x
-
Spine & Pain Center P.C. owns and operates a healthcare center that provides physical medicine, pain management, orthopedic, and rehabilitation services. The company was founded in 1996 and is based in Bismarck, North Dakota.
$1
$1
1.2x
8.7x
11.1x
$884
$76
2.1x
23.9x
-
Kessler Rehabilitation Corporation
Operates assisted living residences and providing assisted living services in 24 states Operates inpatient hospitals, outpatient centers, skilled nursing and assisted living centers, contract therapy management programs.
$249
$230
1.1x
10.4x
31.5x
ARV Assisted Living, Inc.
Owns and operates 60 assisted living centers containing 6,997 units.
$151
$38
1.0x
8.8x
-
Median
1.2x
12.7x
29.6x
Mean
2.2x
14.0x
25.5x
Adj. Median
0.9x
11.4x
32.8x
Adj. Mean
1.2x
12.2x
27.6x
Mariner Health Care Inc.
Note: Transactions used in Adjusted Median and Mean figures are highlighted in yellow and represent most relevant transactions
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Implied Valuation Peer and Transaction comparables suggest AVCA (green line) is undervalued1,2,3
Peer Comps: P/Fwd EPS
Peer Comps: EV/Fwd Rev
Peer Comps: P/E
Peer Comps: EV/EBITDA
Peer Comps: EV/Rev
M&A: P/E
M&A: EV/EBITDA
M&A: EV/Rev
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
$45
$50
$55
$60
$65
$70
$75
$80
1) P/Fwd EPS calculated using Kinnaras internal estimate of $0.98 dilluted EPS for 2007 2) M&A: P/E and Peer Comps: P/E valuations based on adjusted AVCA 2006 EPS of $1.20, which excludes tax benefit and assumes a 35% tax provision; AVCA maintains NOLs which can be utilized but tax provision was incorporated to demonstrate conservative valuation even if assuming AVCA is a tax payer 3) Valuation ranges based on difference between mean and median valuation metrics
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III. Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA
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Why is AVCA valued so poorly? Relative valuation methods demonstrate that AVCA is significantly undervalued On an absolute valuation basis, AVCA currently trades for just 6.5x 2007 free cash flow offering a free cash flow yield of 15% Kinnaras believes there are two main reasons for AVCA’s valuation haircut ► Market Issues: Confusion regarding the quality of AVCA’s operations Lack of real estate/facility ownership Significant confusion regarding AVCA’s forward guidance ► Agency Issues: Management and the Board’s reluctance to initiate material strategic dialogue with advisers or potential acquirers Management and the Board’s unwillingness to consider shareholder opinions regarding capital allocation decisions
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Confusion regarding AVCA’s quality of operations The market may be punishing AVCA for its payor mix… 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AVCA
BKD
CSU
Medicaid
FVE
GHCI
Medicare
HCR
NHC
SUNH
Private
GHCI, HCR, NHC, and SUNH are the most relevant comparables to AVCA since BKD, CSU, and FVE have a far greater portion of revenues derived from independent living facilities which do not house patients with the same level of acuity or reimbursement profile as assisted living and skilled nursing centers Note: ODSY excluded because it is exclusively a hospice while SRZ is excluded because latest financial information is as of 2005
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Confusion regarding AVCA’s quality of operations (con’t) AVCA may trade at a discount due to lower occupancy rates relative to peers Annual Occupancy Rate 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AVCA
BKD
CSU
FVE
GHCI
HCR
NHC
SUNH
Note: ODSY excluded because it is exclusively a hospice while SRZ is excluded because latest financial information is as of 2005
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Confusion regarding AVCA’s quality of operations (con’t) AVCA may trade at a discount due to lower facility ownership % of Facilities Owned 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% AVCA
BKD
CSU
FVE
GHCI
HCR
NHC
SUNH
Note: ODSY excluded because it is exclusively a hospice while SRZ is excluded because latest financial information is as of 2005
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Confusion regarding AVCA’s quality of operations (con’t) The reality is AVCA’s operating metrics and debt financing are already within industry standards if not greatly superior in certain instances (page 9) despite having lower occupancy rates and less Medicare census than peers Real estate ownership issues do not appear to stunt valuation for BKD, NHC, SUNH As a result, Kinnaras believes AVCA’s payor mix and occupancy rates present an opportunity to enhance firm value ► The Company has established a trend for improving occupancy and payor mix and expects these trends to continue in 2007 ► Minor incremental improvements to payor mix and occupancy rates may be able to leverage overhead even after accounting for additional staffing and projected increases in staffing expenses Medicare Utilization
Annual Occupancy 80%
20%
78%
15%
75%
10%
73%
5%
70%
0% 2003
2004
2005
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2007E
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007E
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Confusion regarding AVCA’s forward guidance The Company’s 2007 EPS guidance of ($0.08) – $0.01 incorporates professional liability (“PL”) estimates that are subject to significant change as the year progresses ► Current estimate is for $9.3MM in PL expense ($1.49 pre-tax per diluted share) ► Management has stated that 2007 fiscal year guidance is based on 2006 fiscal year results but PL estimate is not consistent with 2006 fiscal year results Estimates should incorporate PL trend for fiscal year guidance as opposed to an actuarial estimate as of January 1st, 2007 Assumes tax provision but NOLs are not likely exhausted Kinnaras expects AVCA to generate 2007 diluted EPS of $1.00 to $1.19 ► Conservative estimate that incorporates management revenue guidance, expected cost increases, debt expense, tax provision (as opposed to NOL utilization), and after-tax preferred stock dividends ► Assumes PL will be 0 which could understate EPS since PL in 2004, 2005, and 2006 were all benefits vs. expense ► EPS estimates could also be understated given results of renovated facilities Average occupancy increased to 70.6% from 60.9% while Medicare census increased to 17.9% from 14.4% in the 3 renovated facilities completed in Q4 2006 One newly renovated facility will be included in Q1 2007 results while AVCA plans to renovate 2 more facilities in Q1 2007 Estimates do not include plans for renovations beyond those in Q1 2007 although Management has expressed an interest in additional renovations The 6 renovated facilities represent 14% of total Company sites Company results could exceed expectations if results for the three newly renovated facilities match the first three in terms of occupancy and Medicare census improvement Kinnaras Capital Management
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Reluctance to initiate strategic discussions In May 2006, hedge fund Moab Partners approached AVCA with a leveraged buyout opportunity that would value the Company between $18-$24 per share ► “He (David Sackler, Moab Partners founder) proposes a leveraged buyout that includes a $1 million investment by Advocat Chairman Wallace Olson - who owns 10 percent of the company - and another $1 million from Moab. Unnamed partners would kick in $76.4 million in equity and $70 million in debt to fund the purchase.” – Nashville Business Journal, May 19, 2006 Despite talks of an offer significantly above the Company’s trading price at the time, Management and the Board did not provide shareholders an opportunity to realize value from this proposal Stock price continued to rise so there was little focus on Management’s oversight
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Reluctance to initiate strategic discussions (con’t) Bristol Investment Fund and Oakdale Capital Partners (the “Buyers”) offered to buy AVCA for $16.80 per share in July 2006 ► Enterprise value/equity value of approximately $128MM/$109MM 0.6x EV/LTM Revenue1 4.9x EV/LTM EBITDA1 7.2x adjusted EPS1,2 ► While the Buyers’ offer did not seem sufficient the main disservice was that the Board and Management did not disclose this offer to the public until after they had dismissed the offer Shareholder interests were not served since the market was not given time to vet the offer and other potential bidders were not given the opportunity to emerge AVCA Board and Management sent a signal to the market that the Company is not willing to seriously consider acquisition offers
1) Valuation multiples based on LTM data as of June 30, 2006 2) Adjusted EPS omits tax benefit from calculation resulting in $2.31 adjusted EPS; P/E acquisition multiple based on 35% tax basis would be 11.3x
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Reluctance to consider shareholder opinions Management has expressed a desire to acquire additional facilities The strategy is sound but the timing is wrong ► When AVCA traded for $16+ per share in July 2006, the Buyers voiced their concern about acquisitions based on the Company’s cheap valuation at the time ► Current prices of $11-$12 per share have not changed this view Any acquisition of scale is unlikely to be accretive to EPS ► Minor tack-on acquisitions will offer little benefit Lack of major institutional investors results in little consideration by the Board and Management when it comes to suggestions and concerns expressed by shareholders ► Only 16% of shares controlled by institutional investors ► The latest conference call demonstrates that shareholders and analysts widely believe that an acquisition strategy is not in the Company’s best interest yet Management appears determined to pursue this course
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Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA Kinnaras and other shareholders likely share similar views on enhancing AVCA’s value Take advantage of depressed share prices by immediately repurchasing stock at a steep discount to value ► 2007 free cash flow to market cap (cash flow yield) is 15% ► Difficult to find alternatives that offer the same benefit to the Company ► Depressed share price is recognized by management as CEO William Council and CFO L. Glynn Riddle, Jr. both purchased shares on March 6th Engage an investment banker to assist in evaluating firm strategy ► An independent adviser would not support the notion of an acquisition by AVCA given the Company’s depressed valuation ► A sale of AVCA could be in shareholders’ interests Precedent transactions demonstrate sector appetite by both strategic and financial buyers resulting in an auction process with significant breadth The timeline between hiring an adviser and running the auction process would take 3-6 months giving AVCA the benefit of reporting Q1 and possibly Q2 results which could drive a rebound in stock price prior to any forthcoming bids Kinnaras Capital Management
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Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA (con’t) An aggressive buyback at current prices would be highly accretive
Current diluted shares outstanding (MM) Kinnaras 2007 EPS Estimate (high) Cash Designated for Buyback ($MM) Average Share Price of AVCA Buyback Shares Redeemed (MM) Diluted shares outstanding post buyback (MM) Kinnaras 2007 EPS Estimate (high) post buyback
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
6.25
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$1.19
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.5
$11.25
$12.25
$13.25
$14.25
$15.25
$16.25
$17.25
$18.25
1.02
0.94
0.87
0.81
0.75
0.71
0.67
0.63
5.23
5.31
5.38
5.44
5.50
5.54
5.58
5.62
$1.42
$1.40
$1.38
$1.37
$1.35
$1.34
$1.33
$1.32
Accretion (Dilution)
20%
18%
16%
15%
14%
13%
12%
11%
Remaining Cash after Buyback
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$0.9
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$14.0
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$4.5
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
$10.4
Funds from Operations less: Capex Cash Balance at FYE 2007
Current prices make it difficult to find attractive alternatives relative to AVCA’s own stock. In addition, the Company’s stable cash flow results in a healthy cash balance by year-end.
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Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA (con’t) Hire an independent adviser to evaluate the Company’s strategy and alternatives AVCA’s size reduces the likelihood of engaging a bulge bracket adviser but many regional and boutique investment banks have strong healthcare practices GHCI deal offers a recent and relevant example of buyer interest GHCI Timeline June 2006 – January 2007 June 2006: A private equity consortium (“PE 1”, rumored to be Madison Dearborn, Filmore Capital,and Welsh, Carson, Anderson & Stowe) approached GHCI CEO George Hager about a MBO, stock was trading at $45 per share at the time August 2006: Hager asks the Board for permission to pursue talks and the Board forms a committee to evaluate offers and hires Goldman Sachs to advise September/October 2006: PE 1 offers $51.50 per share in September which is rejected by the Board and results in a follow up offer of $53.00 per share in October November 2006: PE 1 offers $54.00 per share and a “go-shop” provision with the Board electing to run a full scale auction with Goldman Sachs soliciting 14 strategic and financial buyers December 2006: A second private equity firm (uknown, “PE 2”) offers $58-$60 per share, although Hager discloses to the Board that he would not work for PE 2, followed by a Formation Capital and GE Healthcare Financial Services (“PE 3”) bid at $60 per share January 2007: PE 2 bids $63.00 against $62.50 from PE 3 which includes JER Partners instead of GE Healthcare Financial Services and the Board asks PE 3 to bid $63.00 along with providing similar contract and financing terms offered by PE 2. PE 3 agrees and wins the auction
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Kinnaras’ Recommendation to AVCA (con’t) GHCI’s auction brought out 14 potential buyers and resulted in a valuation that was 22% higher than the initial bid ► If AVCA followed this process when the Buyers approached in 2006, a transaction could have potentially been executed over $21 per share ► An auction process for AVCA could bring out more potential buyers The Company owns 9 of its properties and is in a distinct geographic footprint Small size increases number of potential bidders Larger strategic firms could easily finance an acquisition of AVCA and integrate/absorb the Company into existing operations Cash flow and industry dynamics would raise LBO interest The most relevant transaction comps illustrate healthy valuation multiples which the Company should be able to realize ► GHCI ► Skilled Healthcare ► Harborside Healthcare
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Conclusions AVCA is significantly undervalued ► Very attractive free cash flow yield ► Operating metrics and debt capitalization in-line with or better than higher valued industry peers ► Favorable industry dynamics Kinnaras’ recommendations for AVCA should create value ► Improves capital allocation Immediate share repurchase could enhance shareholder value by 20% Offers a better alternative to potentially dilutive acquisitions ► Exploring a sale process with the help of an independent adviser will further help realize value for shareholders Recent and relevant precedent transactions demonstrate buyer interest and healthy valuations ► Recommendations seem to be widely held by shareholders based on recent conference calls ► Variations by other shareholders on Kinnaras’ recommendations can also enhance value ► Current environment and market confusion regarding AVCA should compel the Board and Management to act in shareholders’ best interests Kinnaras Capital Management
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Next Steps All stakeholders should be engaged in an effort to enhance the Company’s value ► Current Shareholders Lack of major institutional investor makes it difficult to spearhead a concentrated effort ► Broader investment community Undervalued situation, microcap stock, and turbulent shareholder base should present an opportunity for activist investors wishing to build upon recommendations and take the lead ► AVCA Management and the Board Management has demonstrated good operating capabilities but capital allocation decision making is in question Aside from Wallace Olson, insiders (Board and Management) own less than 5% of Company shares Personal/financial accountability for share performance is a better motivator than fiduciary accountability Kinnaras is open to any feedback and revisions to suggested recommendations by current shareholders, AVCA’s Board and Management, and any other potential AVCA investors ► Contact:
[email protected]
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