Third Quarter 2007 Review October 16, 2007 Speakers: Henry Meyer Jeff Weeden
PRIVATE SECURITIES LITIGATION REFORM ACT OF 1995 FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENT DISCLOSURE This presentation contains forward-looking statements, including statements about our financial condition, results of operations, earnings outlook, asset quality trends and profitability. Forwardlooking statements express management's current expectations or forecasts of future events and, by their nature, are subject to assumptions, risks and uncertainties. Although management believes that the expectations and forecasts reflected in these forward-looking statements are reasonable, actual results could differ materially due to a variety of factors including: (1) changes in interest rates; (2) changes in trade, monetary or fiscal policy; (3) changes in general economic conditions, or in the condition of the local economies or industries in which we have significant operations or assets, which could, among other things, materially impact credit quality trends and our ability to generate loans; (4) increased competitive pressure among financial services companies; (5) the inability to successfully execute strategic initiatives designed to grow revenues and/or manage expenses; (6) consummation of significant business combinations or divestitures; (7) operational or risk management failures due to technological or other factors; (8) heightened regulatory practices, requirements or expectations; (9) new legal obligations or liabilities or unfavorable resolution of litigation; (10) adverse capital markets conditions; (11) continued disruption in the fixed income markets; (12) disruption in the economy and general business climate as a result of terrorist activities or military actions; and (13) changes in accounting or tax practices or requirements. Forward-looking statements are not guarantees of future performance and should not be relied upon as representing management's views as of any subsequent date. We do not assume any obligation to update these forward-looking statements. For further information regarding KeyCorp, please read KeyCorp's reports that are filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission and are available at www.sec.gov.
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Strategic Update ¾ Fixed income market volatility adversely impacts results ¾ Continued focus on credit quality ¾ On track to complete UBH (Union State Bank) acquisition ¾ Completed acquisition of Tuition Management Systems
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Financial Summary—3Q07 vs. 3Q06 Results from Continuing Operations
(1)
EPS
$0.57 vs. $0.74
ROE
11.50% vs. 15.52%
NIM
3.40% vs. 3.61%
Average Earning Assets
up 4.4%
Asset Quality
(1)
– Net Charge-offs
0.35% vs. 0.26%
– NPLs
0.72% vs. 0.34%
Continuing Operations exclude the results of the Champion Mortgage finance business, which has been accounted for as a discontinued operation.
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Net Interest Margin (TE)–Continuing Ops. $ in millions 4.25%
$800 $716
$700
$722
$726
$726
$744 $700
$692
$706
$712
4.00% 3.75%
$600
3.63%
3.68%
3.72%
3.68%
3.61%
3.66%
3.50% 3.50%
3.46%
$500
$400
3.09%
3.06%
3.40%
3.25% 3.00%
3.05% 2.96% 2.85%
2.75%
2.85% 2.70%
$300
2.62% 2.52%
$200
2.50% 2.25%
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
Net Interest Income TE = Taxable Equivalent
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
Net Interest Spread
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
Net Interest Margin
6
Noninterest Income–Continuing Ops. $ in millions Change 3Q07 vs. 2Q07 3Q06
3Q07
2Q07
3Q06
$119
$115
$137
$4
$(18)
88
84
78
4
10
9
52
44
(43)
(35)
Operating lease income
70
66
58
4
12
Letter of credit and loan fees
51
45
48
6
3
Corporate-owned life insurance income
27
32
23
(5)
4
Electronic banking fees
25
25
27
-
(2)
(53)
33
14
(86)
(67)
4
2
(7)
2
11
27 9
40 90
28
(13) (81)
27 (19)
62 $438
65 $649
93 $543
(3) $(211)
(31) $(105)
Trust and investment services income Service charges on deposit accounts Investment banking and capital markets income
Net gains (losses) from loan securitizations and sales Net securities gains (losses) Gains related to MasterCard Incorporated shares Net gains from principal investing Other income Total noninterest income
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Noninterest Expense–Continuing Ops. $ in millions Change 3Q07 vs. 2Q07 3Q06
3Q07
2Q07
3Q06
$383
$411
$418
Net occupancy
60
59
62
1
(2)
Computer processing
49
49
52
-
(3)
Operating lease expense
58
55
48
3
10
Professional fees
27
26
28
1
(1)
Equipment
22
24
26
(2)
(4)
Marketing
21
20
32
1
(11)
-
42
-
(42)
-
5
6
-
(1)
5
128 $753
123 $815
124 $790
5 $(62)
Personnel
Litigation reserve Provision for losses on lending-related commitments Other expense Total noninterest expense
$(28)
$(35)
4 $(37)
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Average Loans–Continuing Ops. $ in billions $75 62.0
63.4
64.2
64.9
65.2
65.6
65.7
66.3
67.7
15%
$60
10%
$45
5%
$30
0%
$15
-5%
$0
-10% 3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
Average Loan Growth from Prior Year Commercial $44.3 Consumer 17.7
$45.8 17.6
$46.7 17.5
$47.3 17.6
$47.6 17.6
$48.0 17.6
$48.3 17.4
$48.8 17.5
$49.7 18.0
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Average Core Deposits–Continuing Ops. $ in billions 16%
$60 $50
$47.9
$49.4
$50.3
$51.6
$51.7
$52.1
$50.3
$50.6
$51.7 12%
$40 8% $30 4% $20 0%
$10
-4%
$0 3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
Average Core Deposit Growth from Prior Year Average Core Deposit Growth Adjusted for McDonald Divestiture
DDA $12.2 NOW/MMDA 22.9 2.0 Savings 10.8 CD’s
$12.6 23.9 1.9 11.0
$12.7 24.5 1.8 11.3
$13.0 25.3 1.8 11.5
$13.1 25.2 1.7 11.7
$13.4 25.1 1.7 11.9
$13.2 23.4 1.6 12.1
$14.0 23.0 1.6 12.0
$14.4 24.2 1.6 11.5
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Asset Quality $ in millions 3Q07 Net C/O to Average Loans from Continuing Operations
$
Nonperforming Loans to EOP Loans Nonperforming Assets to EOP Loans + OREO
59
2Q07 $
53
3Q06 $
43
Change 3Q07 vs. 2Q07 3Q06 $
6
$
16
0.35 %
0.32 %
0.26 %
$
498 0.72 %
$ 276 0.41 %
$ 223 0.34 %
$
222
$
275
$
570 0.83 %
$ 378 0.57 %
$ 329 0.50 %
$
192
$
241
Allowance $ to Total Loans to Non performing Loans
955 1.38 % 192 %
$ 945 1.42 % 342 %
$ 944 1.44 % 423 %
$
10
$
11
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Capital Ratios 9.00% 8.24%
8.00%
7.00%
7.72%
6.68%
8.02%
7.90%
8.14% 7.92%
7.64%
7.59%
6.68%
8.15%
6.71%
6.68%
6.81%
7.01%
6.97%
6.89%
6.78%
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets Tier 1 Risk-based Capital
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
Peer Median–Tangible Equity to Tangible Assets Peer Median–Tier 1 Risk-based Capital
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Fourth Quarter 2007 Outlook Net Interest Margin
Low to mid 3.30% range
Loan Growth
Commercial: Mid- to upper-single-digit range Consumer: Low- to mid-single-digit range
Core Deposit Growth
Low- to mid-single-digit range
Net Charge-Offs
35 – 45 basis point range
Effective Tax Rate
Approximately 32%
4th Quarter Earnings Outlook $0.68 – $0.74 per share
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Appendix
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Community Banking Northwest
Rocky Mountains
Great Lakes
Northeast
Core Deposits: 24% Comm’l Loans: 25%
Core Deposits: 9% Comm’l Loans: 12%
Core Deposits: 36% Comm’l Loans: 39%
Core Deposits: 31% Comm’l Loans: 24%
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Average Loan Breakdown Continuing Operations $ in millions 3Q07
Average Balance 2Q07
% Increase (Decrease) vs. 2Q07 3Q06
3Q06
Commercial, financial and agricultural Real estate — commercial mortgage Real estate — construction Commercial lease financing Total Commercial Loans
$ 22,393 8,855 8,285 10,172 49,705
$ 21,856 8,565 8,243 10,096 48,760
$ 21,648 8,106 7,965 9,850 47,569
2.5 % 3.4 .5 .8 1.9
3.4 % 9.2 4.0 3.3 4.5
Real Estate — residential Home equity Consumer — direct Consumer — indirect Total Consumer Loans Total Loans
1,586 10,883 1,342 4,164 17,975 $ 67,680
1,472 10,752 1,370 3,961 17,555 $ 66,315
1,415 11,017 1,585 3,594 17,611 $ 65,180
7.7 1.2 (2.0) 5.1 2.4 2.1 %
12.1 (1.2) (15.3) 15.9 2.1 3.8 %
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Commercial Portfolio*—Credit Size as of 9/30/07 ($ in millions) 98.5%
100%
80%
60% 46.3%
40%
35.8% 28.4%
27.4% 23.2%
20% 1.0%
0% <$5 Outstanding *
15.3%
11.0% 12.6%
Excludes commercial lease financing balances
$5 to $15 Commitments
0.2%
0.3%
$15 to $25
> $25
# of Obligations
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Net Charge-Offs to Average Loans Continuing Operations 1.20% 1.02%
0.90%
0.60%
0.33%
0.32%
0.30% (1)
0.24%
0.22%
1Q06
2Q06
0.27%
0.26%
0.32%
0.35%
(1)
0.26%
0.22%
3Q05
4Q05
0.00% 3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
Peer Median S&P Regional & Diversified Bank Indices (1)
Excludes Passenger Airline Lease Portfolio
3Q07
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Net Charge-Offs to Average Loans by Loan Type
Consumer (1)
Commercial
0.51%
0.15% 0.12%
1Q06
(1)
0.23%
0.28%
2Q06 3Q06 4Q06
Excludes Champion Mortgage
0.20%
1Q07
0.29% 0.30%
2Q07
3Q07
1Q06
0.43%
0.36%
2Q06 3Q06
0.45% 0.47%
0.41%
4Q06 1Q07 2Q07
0.46%
3Q07
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Nonperforming Assets $ in millions $600
$570 0.83%
$500 $400
1.00%
0.80%
$393 0.60%
$307
$320
$329
$308
0.48%
0.44%
0.44%
0.60%
0.54%
0.50%
0.46%
$200 0.43%
$378 0.62%
$273
$300 0.46%
$353
0.46%
0.50%
0.49%
0.54%
0.57%
0.40%
0.41%
$100 $0
0.20%
3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
NPAs to Loans + OREO
Commercial $237 Consumer 123 OREO + Other 33
$142 135 30
$138 157 25
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
Peer Median S&P Regional & Diversified Bank Indices
$144 135 29
$135 88 106
$118 97 58
$155 99 99
$181 95 102
$393 105 72
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Allowance to Period-End Loans 2.00%
1.67%
1.50%
1.45%
1.44%
1.42%
1.44%
1.43%
1.44%
1.42%
1.38%
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
3Q07
1.00%
0.50% 3Q05
Peer Median S&P Regional & Diversified Bank Indices
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Allowance to NPLs 500% 423%
400%
372%
349% 327%
300%
439%
342%
343%
304%
192%
200%
100%
0% 3Q05
4Q05
1Q06
2Q06
3Q06
4Q06
1Q07
2Q07
Peer Median S&P Regional & Diversified Bank Indices
3Q07
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Commercial Real Estate Loans September 30, 2007 $ in millions West Nonowner-occupied: Residential properties Multi-family properties Retail properties Land and development Office buildings Warehouses Health facilities Manufacturing facilities Hotels/Motels Other
$
Owner-occupied Total
Nonowner-occupied: Nonperforming loans 90+ days past due 30 — 89 days past due
N/M = Not Meaningful
1,445 449 255 202 309 176 123 18 52 199 3,228
Southwest $
1,494 $
4,722
$81 32 33
309 243 175 207 91 12 14 22 — 2 1,075
Geographic Region Central Midwest $
109 $
1,184
— — $16
477 471 338 227 138 80 56 — 50 92 1,929
$
483 $
2,412
$7 — 1
185 263 389 113 194 81 125 23 15 211 1,599
Southeast
Northeast
$
$
2,006 $
3,605
$25 4 14
1,093 293 652 247 244 161 146 57 39 22 2,954 204
$
3,158
$106 — 20
$
234 330 167 60 165 79 142 4 1 179 1,361
Total $
3,743 2,049 1,976 1,056 1,141 589 606 124 157 705 12,146
1,044
5,340
2,405
$ 17,486
$9 — 29
$228 36 113
% of Total 21.4 % 11.7 11.3 6.1 6.5 3.4 3.5 .7 .9 4.0 69.5 30.5 100.0 %
N/M N/M N/M
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Commercial Real Estate Residential Properties: $3.7 Billion
$1.4 B $0.2 B
$0.9 B
$0.3 B
$0.2 B
$1.1 B
$0.5 B
$0.7 B Nonperforming & Past Due Loans $ in millions
Nonperforming loans 90+ days past due 30 — 89 days past due
West $80 32 3
SW — — $16
Central — — 1
MW $18 — 12
SE $97 — 3
NE $4 — 14
Total $199 32 49
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Commercial Real Estate Servicing Servicing Portfolio $160.0
$5.0
$140.0
$4.5 $4.0
$120.0
$3.5
$100.0
$3.0
$80.0
$2.5
$60.0
$2.0 $1.5
$40.0
$1.0
$20.0
$0.5
$0.0
$0.0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1Q06 2Q06 3Q06 4Q06 1Q07 2Q07 3Q07
Servicing Portfolio
Average Escrow Deposits
Average Escrow Deposits
$ in billions
25
Home Equity Loans $ in millions Loan Balances Regional Banking Home Equity Loans and Lines First Lien Second Lien Total Home Equity Loans and Lines Nonaccrual Loans Total First Lien Total Second Lien Total Home Equity Nonaccrual loans Key Home Equity Services - Home Imp Div (Secured) Home Equity Loans and Lines First Lien Second Lien Total Home Equity Loans and Lines Nonaccrual Loans Total First Lien Total Second Lien Total Home Equity Nonaccrual loans
Period End Balance—September 30, 2007 N/M = Not Meaningful
Average FICO
Average LTV
% of Loans LTV>90%
$5,597 4,077 $9,674
744 739 742
66 % 75 70
0.49 % 3.64 1.84
$
28 24 52
689 684 687
76 % 80 78
0.54 % 7.13 3.61
43 1,187 $1,230
749 729 730
26 % 80 78
0.55 % 32.28 31.16
704 671 672
28 % 88 86
N/M 47.70 % 46.33
$
$
– $ $
9 9