Jeremy.docx
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I.
Introduction
Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific Ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, monthly rainfall data (January – December 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions.
II.
DATA ANALYSIS
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES a) A lot of rain (rainy season) falls in the months: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December. b) On average, November is the wettest month. c) On average, April is the driest month. d) The average amount of annual precipitation is: 999.9 mm (39.37 in)
III.
IMPORTANCE OF RAINFALL ANALYSIS
a) an enhanced understanding of the impact of climate uncertainties on impact estimates, b) improved quantification of agricultural model uncertainty, c) a more systematic focus on the assessment of sensitivity of impact models to climate model errors, d) a better quantification of downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty and, e) a better reporting of results by reporting impacts using raw versus downscaled and/or bias-corrected climate data.
References [1] Philippine Statistics Authority, “Countrystat Philippines,” 2014. Accessed: May 13, 2017. [2] F. P. Lansigan, “Climate risk for weather index-based insurance for crop production in the Philippines,” 2013. [3] T. A. Cinco, R. G. de Guzman, A. M. D. Ortiz, R. J. P. Delfino, R. D. Lasco, F. D. Hilario, E. L. Juanillo, R. Barba, and E. D. Ares, “Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 36, pp. 4638–4650, 2016.
CALABANGA NATIONAL SCIENCE HIGH SCHOOL STA. CRUZ, CALABANGA, CAMARINES SUR
RAINFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES (January 2016 – December 2016)
JEREMY G. ARAZA
REGINE PEÑAREDONDO
Introduction
Philippines as an archipelago and tropical country, which is situated near the Pacific Ocean, faces uncertain rainfall intensities. This makes environmental, agricultural and economic systems affected by precipitation difficult to manage. Time series analysis of Philippine rainfall pattern has been previously done, but there is no study investigating its probability distribution. Modeling the Philippine rainfall using probability distributions is essential, especially in managing risks and designing insurance products. Here, monthly rainfall data (January – December 2016) from 28 PAGASA weather stations are fitted to probability distributions.
II.
DATA ANALYSIS
AVERAGE MONTHLY RAINFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES a) A lot of rain (rainy season) falls in the months: January, February, March, April, May, June, July, August, September, October, November and December. b) On average, November is the wettest month. c) On average, April is the driest month. d) The average amount of annual precipitation is: 999.9 mm (39.37 in)
III.
IMPORTANCE OF RAINFALL ANALYSIS
a) an enhanced understanding of the impact of climate uncertainties on impact estimates, b) improved quantification of agricultural model uncertainty, c) a more systematic focus on the assessment of sensitivity of impact models to climate model errors, d) a better quantification of downscaling and bias-correction uncertainty and, e) a better reporting of results by reporting impacts using raw versus downscaled and/or bias-corrected climate data.
References [1] Philippine Statistics Authority, “Countrystat Philippines,” 2014. Accessed: May 13, 2017. [2] F. P. Lansigan, “Climate risk for weather index-based insurance for crop production in the Philippines,” 2013. [3] T. A. Cinco, R. G. de Guzman, A. M. D. Ortiz, R. J. P. Delfino, R. D. Lasco, F. D. Hilario, E. L. Juanillo, R. Barba, and E. D. Ares, “Observed trends and impacts of tropical cyclones in the Philippines,” International Journal of Climatology, vol. 36, pp. 4638–4650, 2016.
CALABANGA NATIONAL SCIENCE HIGH SCHOOL STA. CRUZ, CALABANGA, CAMARINES SUR
RAINFALL IN THE PHILIPPINES (January 2016 – December 2016)
JEREMY G. ARAZA
REGINE PEÑAREDONDO
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