Indian Economy: Still Dependent On A Mere Rainfall?

Shadow of Drought on Indian Economy: Can India come out of it? India may not have been hit by recession as much as the western countries, but it is circumvented with problems of its own that pulls it back from the great revival of the Indian Economy. Despite all the inefficiencies in the system, India witnessed an overall growth of 7-8% in the last 2 years. This was mainly attributed to the focus of investment in different sectors by the government. Amidst the economic recession, the agriculture witnessed a growth of mere 1.2% as compared to 4.1% in 2008. As the country is seeing the back of recession and the industries emerging from a sluggish growth, an overall growth in the economy was anticipated. However, with no monsoons this season, and the rising inflation, the government officials have been left gasping for breadth. It seems a complete paradox however, that a nation growing at the rate of 7-8% does not even have an irrigation system that supports the sector in conditions of drought and that we are still majorly dependent on rains to ensure adequate food supply and proper functioning of the other industries. Agriculture employs 60% of people and its contribution to India’s GDP is just 17% as compared to the services industry that employs just 10% of population and contributes around 58% to the GDP. Perhaps we require sustainable development in this sector to ensure economies of scale. It is surprisingly absurd that when the government is focusing in developing and strengthening the nation’s economic infrastructure and looking for sectoral growth, it is letting a trivial reason of ‘no rain’, impact all the sectors in this downturn. The adverse effect of inadequate irrigation facilities has resulted in the decrease of rice production by 15%. Prices of maize have crossed Rs 900/quintal for the 1st time, tuar and urad daal have crossed Rs 6000 and Rs 4000 a quintal already. This heightened surge in the food prices has increased the grocery bill by almost 1% in just one month. This increase in basic commodity prices will affect almost all the industries that were witnessing a green-shoot until now and may also see a premature death very soon. Impact on: a.) Consumer Goods (FMCG): With consumers spending more on basic necessities like food commodities, this could result in a lesser portion of their wallet going to the purchase for consumer goods which in-turn could see a slowing demand yet again. Thus, with rising food prices, the government may increase the interest rates that may result in forcing the companies to defer investment projects. Thus, a sluggish demand with no

investment could spell dooms day for the economy which is reviving from recession. b.) Textile: The already export hit industry is haunted by the delaying sowing of Cotton, which could increase the price of yarn. c.) Stumbling Stock Market: With reduced demands and sluggish investment growth, the stock market is also seeing a downturn with no rains and high inflation affecting the common man’s budget.

d.) Manufacturing: Shortage of water is affecting the supply of steel as at least 4 tonne of water is required for the production of 1 tonne of steel. The deficit has affected water inflow in many steel plants affecting the manufacturing industry and the revenue generation. e.) Tea Production: Due to reduced rains and lack of summer showers needed to grow first flush teas, the Tea production in the FY 09, has decreased from 240mn kg in 2008 to just 216mn kg this year, resulting in lower export profit and lesser consumption in the domestic market. It can utilize its vast resources in an efficient manner to stop relying on the rain gods for a hassle free functioning of the economy. Indeed, a scope of improvement is huge. Reducing Dependence: India receives a rainfall of around 4000 BCM every year, actually enough to take care of India's water needs, but most of this water is received within 4 months of 'monsoon' season between June and September, or to be more precise, during less than 100 hours of precipitation spread over these four months. Most of this water is lost. A small part of it goes into soil and recharges ground water, but most of it evaporates and is lost. Today, the groundwater levels are falling everywhere throughout the country. In some cities they are falling at an alarming rate of almost 10 meters every year, indicating a crisis. India would have to become self dependent in terms of adequate water supply for irrigation facilities for its farms and for other industries like steel & cement to function properly. 1.0) Water conservation policy as solution to water scarcity:

With a rainfall that is adequate to take care of its needs, it is being accepted that water conservation is the only answer to India's problems. •

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Local water bodies - This used to be one of the main local sources of water earlier, but gradual siltation and shallowing of those bodies and their pollution by people and industries have made most of them dysfunctional. Now their renovation is looked upon as one of the means to store and conserve rain water. Urban water harvesting - as India gradually shifts from rural to urban areas, the role of water conservation in urban areas is increasingly recognized and accepted as a solution to water problem. Afforestation - Planting of trees has been accepted as the single biggest means of holding water in a territory, and is increasingly resorted to as a means, especially in the semi-arid regions. However most of these efforts are not well coordinated till now due to lack of comprehensive planning.

2.0) Developing a Village Irrigation Office: A complete overhauling of the system, to ensure optimal utilization of the resources and making sure that the agriculture sector & the farmers are reaping real benefits from the policies of the government is what is imperative in today’s India. Development of a Village Irrigation Office would take care of the problems of irrigation, shortage of water supply, giving regular guidance to farmers of how to save and procure water and how to efficiently use water resources (eg. Sprinkling water in 2-3 short cycles rather than 1 long cycle). The village office would also take care of arranging Irrigation Audits for the farmers to find loopholes in the irrigation system. The auditor carefully examines and tests the irrigation system. They create a report detailing the condition of the system, including a list of recommendations for repairs and improvements. Some auditors also provide an irrigation schedule showing how often and how long a farmer should water during each month of the year. 2.0) Improving Technology: In the need to preserve water and preventing Low-head drainage that causes loss of water, farmers can opt for Smart Controller. Smart Controller changes the run times to reflect the current water needs of the plant.

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Installing a Rain Switch: A rain switch is a simple rain sensor. When it detects measurable rainfall, it turns off the automatic irrigation valves. Devices like these, can really help the farmer to conserve water in periods of drought. Installing filters to prevent sprinkler malfunctions: Filters will stop the contaminants in the water supply that most often cause sprinkler malfunctions. Making easily available shut-off devices: These devices save water by automatically shutting off the water when something in the irrigation system breaks.

3.0) Increasing use of Crop-Rotation Facilities & BT-Cotton cultivation: Crop-rotation, most preferably with legume crops helps restore the ground water availability and cultivation of BT Cotton also helps to support the protection of groundwater resources, since it requires only one to two irrigations per crop as compared to four to six for maize. Summary: India would have to either develop its water resources to feed its population, or has to reduce its dependence on water resources and look for alternative means to not only feed the ever growing population, but also to ensure that the economic stability & growth of the country does not get affected by a trivial reason of “no rainfall” in the country. If we have to witness an over all growth of the nation, we would have to reduce our dependence on factors that are out of human control.