Global Survey On Hydrogen

ARTICLE IN PRESS

Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792 www.elsevier.com/locate/enpol

A global survey of hydrogen energy research, development and policy Barry D. Solomona,, Abhijit Banerjeeb a

Department of Social Sciences, Michigan Technological University, 1400 Townsend Drive, Houghton, MI 49931-1295, USA b Center for Energy and Environmental Policy, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716, USA Available online 15 September 2004

Abstract Several factors have led to growing interest in a hydrogen energy economy, especially for transportation. A successful transition to a major role for hydrogen will require much greater cost-effectiveness, fueling infrastructure, consumer acceptance, and a strategy for its basis in renewable energy feedstocks. Despite modest attention to the need for a sustainable hydrogen energy system in several countries, in most cases in the short to mid term hydrogen will be produced from fossil fuels. This paper surveys the global status of hydrogen energy research and development (R&D) and public policy, along with the likely energy mix for making it. The current state of hydrogen energy R&D among auto, energy and fuel-cell companies is also briefly reviewed. Just two major auto companies and two nations have specific targets and timetables for hydrogen fuel cells or vehicle production, although the EU also has an aggressive, less specific strategy. Iceland and Brazil are the only nations where renewable energy feedstocks are envisioned as the major or sole future source of hydrogen. None of these plans, however, are very certain. Thus, serious questions about the sustainability of a hydrogen economy can be raised. r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. Keywords: Hydrogen energy; Transportation; Fuel cells

1. Background With interest in its practical applications dating back almost 200 years, hydrogen energy use is hardly a novel idea (Dunn, 2001). What is new is the confluence of factors since the mid-1990s that increase the attractiveness of a hydrogen energy economy. These factors include: persistent urban air pollution, demand for low or zero-emission vehicles, the need to reduce foreign oil imports, carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and global climate change, and the need to store renewable electricity supplies. These considerations are not confined to a single nation or region, and render hydrogen a virtually ideal energy carrier that is abundantly and equitably available to humanity (Gummer and Head, 2003). Indeed, robust competition has emerged between nations as diverse as Iceland, China, Germany, Japan and the US in the race to commercialize hydrogen Corresponding author. Tel.: +1-9064871791; fax: +1-9064872468.

E-mail address: [email protected] (B.D. Solomon). 0301-4215/$ - see front matter r 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. doi:10.1016/j.enpol.2004.08.007

energy vehicles in the 21st Century. While other energy applications are possible (e.g., heating, cooking, electricity generation, aircraft, locomotives) hydrogen use in cars, trucks, busses, taxis, scooters and commercial boats is getting the most focus (cf. Farrell et al., 2003; Arnason and Sigfusson, 2000; Mourato et al., 2004). It is important to note why hydrogen for transportation is receiving the most attention in research and policy discussions when a wider range of uses for hydrogen and fuel cells is simultaneously being pursued. Such uses include distributed power generation, backup power, power for portable devices such as laptop computers, mobile phones, and other hand-held electronic devices. In the case of portable electronic devices, recent experiments with fuel cells is motivated not by fear of depletion of an essential raw material but rather to capture consumer demand for increased functional time between rechargings. In the case of power generation, demand thus far only exists in niche markets and areas where well-established alternatives (e.g. photovoltaic cells) exist. In contrast, transportation is

ARTICLE IN PRESS 782

B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

almost solely dependent upon oil and the concomitant threats of price shocks, import dependence, geopolitical instability and eventual resource depletion are felt by most nations. Fuel-cell vehicles (FCVs) powered by hydrogen are seen by many analysts as more urgent and the only viable alternative for the future of transportation (Cropper et al., 2004). This concern justifies the increased interest in hydrogen for transportation in energy policy and thus will be the focus of this paper. Since fuel-cell development for non-transport applications are being commercialized sooner, this will likely aid the development of hydrogen vehicles. Success in such niche markets is likely to improve technology, expand infrastructure, and decrease production costs of fuel cells over the next decade, which will facilitate massmarket penetration of hydrogen and FCVs in two decades (Hart, 2000). Given its abundant nature, hydrogen has been an important raw material in the organic chemical industry for many decades, especially the petrochemical sector (e.g., for oil or gas refining into gasoline, heating oil, methanol, plastics, fertilizer, industrial refrigeration, hydrogenation of food, etc.). About 9 million tons of hydrogen are produced each year in the US and 50 million tons worldwide, mostly and most cheaply from steam reforming of natural gas (DOE, 2002). Its ubiquitous availability and lack of emissions (unless burnt directly with a flame, which produces nitrogen oxides) would seem to make the transition from an industrial setting to the energy sector straightforward. Yet when hydrogen is used in a motor vehicle, several storage options exist and there is no consensus on which of these is preferable (Table 1). These include compressed hydrogen gas cryogenic liquids, or metal hydrides, favored in Japan and by Toyota. BMW, or methanol, gasoline, diesel, or advanced solid-state storage, favored in the US and Another consideration for auto companies is whether or not to include onboard reformers (hydrogen fuel processors). Whichever hydrogen storage option is pursued, it is somewhat unclear whether fuel cells or internal combustion engines (ICE), or both, will be adopted to power motor vehicles. While fuel cells are more efficient and cleaner than the ICE run on hydrogen, they are heavier and much more expensive at present. Alternatively, fuel cells are cheaper when run on methanol (Hoffmann, 2002, p. 124). Since the potential for zero CO2 emissions from hydrogen use is one of its key advantages it is vital that the energy feedstock and conversion technology be carefully assessed (Hart, 2003). Hydrogen can be made by stripping the H atoms out of fossil fuels or biomass (including municipal solid wastes, i.e. MSW), or by using electricity generated from fossil or carbon-free energy sources to electrolyze water. The latter option is usually much more expensive and used for just 4% of

Table 1 On-board hydrogen energy storage parameters, cost performance and goals in the US for alternative hydrogen storage technologies Storage parameter

2005

2010

2015

Gravimetric capacity 1.5 kWh/kg 2 kWh/kg 3 kWh/kg (Specific energy) 0.045 kg H2/kg 0.060 kg H2/kg 0.090 kg H2/kg Current energy density 5000 psi gas 2.1 10,000 psi gas 1.9 Liquid 2.0 Chemical hydride 1.6 Complex hydride 0.8 Volumetric capacity 1.2 kWh/L 1.5 kWh/L 2.7 kWh/L (Energy density) 0.036 kg H2/L 0.045 kg H2/L 0.081 kg H2/L Current energy density 5000 psi gas 0.8 10,000 psi gas 1.3 Liquid 1.6 Chemical hydride 1.4 Complex hydride 0.6 Storage system cost

$6/kWh

Current costs 5000 psi gas 10,000 psi gas Liquid Chemical hydride Complex hydride

$12 $16 $6 $8 $16

$4/kWh

$2/kWh

Source: Bouza et al. (2004).

current production (Logan, 2004). Even so, electrolytic hydrogen based on the current energy mix could increase CO2 emissions since this would usually expand production of an inefficient, carbon-based energy source (MacLean and Lave, 2003, pp. 50–61). In the near future hydrogen derived from natural gas, methanol, heavy oils or MSW will be least costly, except in areas where hydroelectricity is cheap and abundant such as in Scandinavia, Brazil and Canada and/or where cheap off-peak power is available (Dunn, 2001; Gummer and Head, 2003). Early applications on islands, such as Iceland, Hawaii (US), Vanuatu, and Madeira (Portugal) may be especially attractive (Dunn, 2001; Duic and Carvalho, 2004). Yet even with CO2 recovery and sequestration costs included, hydrogen production from fossil fuels is estimated to be much less costly than electrolytic hydrogen in large-scale markets (Ogden et al., 2004). Growing international concerns with climate change and oil import dependence has led to great interest in demonstrating the market viability of hydrogen energy. While Japan was the first country to demonstrate the seriousness of its commitment to hydrogen with its $200

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

million World Energy Network Project (which took place from 1993 to 2002), it has been followed by a growing number of nations in the quest for building a hydrogen economy. Since energy transitions have historically taken several decades to achieve, a range of government, multinational, and private initiatives to promote hydrogen energy will be essential to expedite the shift. Many questions remain regarding the sequence of events that could lead to a hydrogen economy, e.g., centralized vs. decentralized hydrogen production, research, development and marketing of hydrogen vehicles, improvements in fuel-cell technology vs. the ICE, development of infrastructure including fuel transportation and (re)fueling stations, etc. Commercialization and market penetration of hydrogen energy will depend on a complex interplay of these factors, as well as cost, efficiency, energy storage density, and the cost, performance, range and safety of the vehicles. Furthermore, breakthroughs in hydrogen energy and fuel-cell development in one part of the world will inevitably affect programs elsewhere in the globalized world economy. This paper surveys the status of international research and development (R&D), commercialization and policy activities to establish a hydrogen energy economy. In the next two sections it considers efforts of not only private companies in this field, but especially national and multinational government programs. Research priorities are highlighted, including preferences for hydrogen storage, fuel feedstock, and use of the fuel cell vs. the ICE. Following this the paper will summarize the key milestones, targets and timetables that are being set for this new industry. Such dates and production levels will indicate the progress of the transition. The paper closes with conclusions on the prospects for a hydrogen energy economy.

2. Private R&D and commercialization efforts 2.1. Motor vehicle companies Almost all of the major car companies (Subaru is a major exception) and several small ones in the US, Europe and Japan have active programs to develop hydrogen vehicles. Overall private spending on hydrogen energy R&D dwarfs spending by governments. Most of the car company prototype hydrogen vehicles require use of fuel cells (with the notable exception of BMW). It is difficult to determine which automaker will win the race to commercialization and affordability. BMW was a pioneer and has had prototype hydrogen cars since the 1960s. Its current vehicle uses liquid hydrogen and has a range of up to 240 miles, which it hopes will be affordable by 2010 (Munro, 2003). Honda and Toyota first leased a few hydrogen-powered FCVs

783

in California in December 2002, and hope to be the first entrants (along with BMW and Nissan) into the lucrative US retail market (HFCL, 2002). These FCVs have a range up to 235 miles (Bouza et al., 2004). These carmakers plan to sell 80 hydrogen vehicles of various types in California in 2004 (Kiley, 2004). Other car companies followed suit with new leasing arrangements in 2004. A hydrogen fuel cell/battery hybrid engine pickup truck was even offered for sale by Anuvu, Inc. in late 2003, and for under $100,000. The highway range of this truck, however, is just 60 miles, vs. 250 miles in cities (Bak, 2003b). DaimlerChrysler is expanding its on-road fleet to 20–37 FCVs in 2004 in the US and another 60–70 in Europe and East Asia. These vehicles include cars, city busses, and a sprinter van based on compressed-gaseous hydrogen converted from methanol (Bak, 2003a). The automaker already has spent $1 billion to develop and demonstrate successive generations of its New Electric Car (NECAR), first introduced in 1994, and plans to spend $1 billion more over the next 5–10 years. The NECAR-5 completed a cross-country journey to Washington, DC in 2002. DaimlerChrysler initially had hoped to produce and sell 100,000 of these vehicles by 2010 (Vaitheeswaran, 2003, pp. 15, 237–239) although 2015–25 is now more realistic. GM plans to mass produce a fuel-cell car called the AUTOnomy with a range of 200 miles. Since this prototype vehicle will have few parts its production cost is expected to be low. GM’s initial goal was to sell 1 million, affordable AUTOnomy’s worldwide by 2010 (Baum, 2002), although again 2015–25 is more realistic. GM is working with Dow Chemical Co. to demonstrate and reduce the cost of its fuel-cell technology at Dow’s Freeport chemical plant in Texas. The third major US carmaker, Ford, plans to test 30 hybridized fuel-cell cars (specifically an option on its Ford Focus) in Sacramento, Detroit and Orlando in late 2004. BP and Ballard are supporting this initiative (Bak, 2004). Embedded in these market plans are alternate assumptions about the need for and cost of a hydrogen fuel delivery infrastructure vs. small steam gas or methane reformers, or electrolyzers at local fueling stations. As of today, however, hydrogen cars are far from affordable and far from a cost-effective option to lower air pollution, greenhouse gases, or to improve energy security (Keith and Farrell, 2003). 2.2. Energy companies Two multinational oil corporations stand out for their involvement in hydrogen energy R&D and reformation technology: BP and Royal Dutch Shell. Shell and BP established distinct business units to focus on hydrogen energy in 1998 and 1999. These are also the two major oil companies that are most committed to renewable

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

784

energy development and reduction of greenhouse gas emissions. ChevronTexaco (through its affiliation with ECD Ovonics) and ExxonMobil also have hydrogen energy research programs, although the latter company has been less committed to the reduction of greenhouse gasses (Vaitheeswaran, 2003, pp. 51–52, 113). While BP and Shell are both extensively involved in hydrogen energy projects worldwide, Shell has committed over $1 billion to hydrogen energy R&D and commercialization activities through 2006, when it believes that the hydrogen vehicle market will have begun. Another indicator of energy company activity in making hydrogen practical is progress in opening hydrogen-fueling stations and hydrogen highways. As Table 2 shows, there are less than 80 hydrogen-fueling stations thus far, and most of these are located in North America, Japan and Northern Europe (though with 2000 more expected in Germany alone by 2010). In addition to major oil companies, Stuart Energy Systems Corp., Linde AG, and Air Products and Chemicals, Inc. are extensively involved in retail ventures. Several notable initiatives are underway in Europe, especially Iceland and the EU’s respective plans of 1999 and 2002 to become the world’s first hydrogen economies (Arnason and Sigfusson, 2000; EC, 2003). While the popularity of electrolysis systems may seem surprising given their higher cost compared to direct use of hydrogen, the technology is well suited to small-scale production and costs can be lowered through use of off-peak electricity (Vaitheeswaran, 2003, p. 251).

2.3. Fuel-cell companies Although fuel cells (technically a stack of fuel cells) are very expensive and are not necessarily required for hydrogen to be used in motor vehicles, they are receiving serious consideration for practical use. This is because of their high efficiency of 55–60% in converting hydrogen and oxygen to low-voltage, direct current electricity (only 40% with reforming of gas, gasoline or methanol), up to three times that of an efficient ICE. Laboratory tests indicate that fuel cells have a potential efficiency of 85% or more, which when combined with an 80% efficient electric motor could make them 2–3 times as efficient as direct use of hydrogen in an ICE (Hoffmann, 2002). Of the half dozen plus fuel-cell technologies available, most attention is being given to the proton exchange membrane (PEM), which uses a fluorocarbon ion exchange with a polymeric membrane of the Nafion type as the electrolyte. PEMs have the advantage of fast start-up, high power density and ruggedness. PEM cells operate at between 50 and 80 1C, and can vary their output to meet shifting power demands of a vehicle. Other researchers favor alternative technologies such as alkaline fuel cells, which are used on the Space Shuttle, though these are receiving much less interest for motor vehicles (Hoffmann, 2002, pp. 137, 156). These are over 100 fuel-cell manufacturers worldwide, in addition to many auto and oil companies active in this field. Major ones are: UTC Fuel Cells, FuelCell Energy, Gore, DuPont, Ballard, SiemensWestinghouse, IdaTech, Acumentrics, MTI Micro, Asahi Kasei,

Table 2 Hydrogen fueling stations by country and technology, 2004 Country

Number

Company

Technology

US

25

Canada Germany Sweden Norway Iceland Denmark Spain Portugal Italy Belgium Luxemburg Netherlands UK Japan China Taiwan South Korea Singapore Australia

6 15 2 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 1 1 1 11 1 1 1 1 2

Air Products and Chemicals; Stuart Energy; Shell; Teledyne Energy Stuart Energy; Hydrogenics Linde Co.; GHW; BP BP; Stuart Energy Norsk Hydro Royal Dutch Shell Linde Co. BP; IMET BP; Arliquido AEM; SOL Messer Griesheim; NexBen Fueling Shell; Air Liquide IMET; Linde Co. BP Linde Co.; Senju; Honda; Toyota British Oxygen Ztek Corp. Pressure Products Industries; Doojin Air Products BP

Gaseous and liquid hydrogen facilities; hydrogen from natural gas; solar-powered electrolysis Hydro-powered electrolysis; hydrogen from natural gas Hydrogen from natural gas; wind and solar-based electrolysis Hydro-powered electrolysis Electrolysis Geothermal & hydro-powered electrolysis Liquid hydrogen Multi-sourced electrolysis; hydrogen from natural gas Liquid hydrogen from crude oil Hydro-powered electrolysis; liquid hydrogen Liquid hydrogen from natural gas Gaseous hydrogen Renewables-based electrolysis Hydrogen from crude oil Electrolysis; oil, gas & methanol-based reformation Hydrogen from natural gas Hydrogen from natural gas Gaseous hydrogen Gaseous hydrogen Gaseous hydrogen from oil, gas & solar energy

Source: Fuel Cells, 2000, available at: http://www.fuelcells.org, last accessed May 20, 2004.

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

Toshiba, MTU, Sulzer Hexis, ElectroChem and Nuvera. Ballard, a large and growing Canadian company, has yet to turn a profit but foresees limited, commercially available hydrogen cars by 2010–12 through its $1 billion plus, 10-year joint venture with DaimlerChrysler and Ford (Ballard Power Systems, 2003). Thus, its plans and commercial prospects are closely tied to those of its major clients.

3. National and multinational government R&D and policy 3.1. US and Canada Government interest in hydrogen energy in North America dates back to the days of the oil crisis of 1973, when the International Association for Hydrogen Energy was established and the first international conference on the subject was held in Miami Beach. The Energy Research and Development Administration (ERDA) supported hydrogen energy research as part of the failed US Government program for energy autarky, but funding in the 1970s never exceeded $24 million per year, much less than comparable programs in Western Europe (EC, 2003). Research support from the US Government declined in the 1980s, not to resume until the 1990s, with growing concern over global climate change and oil import dependence. The US Department of Energy (DOE) is not putting all of its hydrogen research eggs into one energy basket. In the short term, however, the use of renewable energy sources is being given short shrift. For example, the US National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap assumes that up to 90% of all hydrogen would be made from fossil fuels, with the rest coming from electrolysis using nuclear energy (DOE, 2002). Indeed, the DOE is supporting research efforts to develop ‘‘breakthrough’’ technologies for extracting fuel-grade hydrogen from coal, natural gas, and nuclear energy. Consequently hydrogen programs are being supported through its offices of Fossil Energy and Nuclear Energy, Science and Technology, as well as the Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy. A new program office under the latter was created in 2002 to integrate some of these activities across sectors and applications: the Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells & Infrastructure Technologies Program. A focusing program has been created called the FreedomCAR (Cooperative Automotive Research) and Fuel Initiative, with $1.7 billion proposed by President George W. Bush in his 2003 State of the Union address to support the Initiative from 2002 to 2007 ($318 million total for fiscal year 2004). Of this total, $17 million of the $32 million in hydrogen generation research funding was committed to renewables-derived hydrogen (Hoffmann, 2003). This program’s goals are to lower the

785

cost of hydrogen energy, create effective hydrogen storage, and create affordable hydrogen fuel cells. The US National Research Council released an interim report from its project to evaluate the status and cost of hydrogen energy technologies and the DOE’s research, development and deployment (RD&D) strategy (NRC, 2004, Appendix B). The Committee on Alternatives and Strategies for Future Hydrogen Production and Use made four interim recommendations to DOE: 1. an independent systems engineering and analysis group should be established within the hydrogen program to identify the impacts of various technology pathways; 2. fundamental and exploratory research should receive additional budgetary emphasis; 3. a significant effort should be made to address safety issues; and 4. the knowledge and capabilities of the private sector should continue to be leveraged and the DOE Office of Science should be integrated better into hydrogen program planning. The final report of the NRC concluded that some of the DOE’s goals for a hydrogen economy are unrealistically aggressive, such as mass production of hydrogen cars by 2020 (NRC, 2004). As a result, it was pessimistic about the prospects for a hydrogen economy in the US having any significant effect on oil imports and CO2 emission levels in this time-frame. Seizing an opportunity for leadership on new energy and automotive technology, however, several state governments have developed their own hydrogen energy programs. Chief among these are California, Michigan, Ohio and Hawaii. The California Fuel Cell Partnership, based in Sacramento, is a public-private venture that began in April 1999 and includes auto manufacturers, energy providers, fuel-cell companies, and State and Federal government agencies. Its goals are to demonstrate hydrogen FCV technology and alternative fuel infrastructure and fueling stations, explore the path to commercialization and increase public awareness. The Fuel Cell Partnership was stimulated in part by the California Air Resources Board’s original mandate that 10% of new cars sold in the State by 2003 were to be Zero Emission Vehicles. This deadline has since been modified and delayed because of three lawsuits filed by GM, DaimlerChrysler and Isuzu.1 Nevertheless, thus far California can point to several public demonstrations of hydrogen vehicles and by far the most hydrogen fueling 1 While the three California ZEV lawsuits were officially about the State’s authority to regulate automobile fuel economy, in reality GM, DaimlerChrysler, Isuzu and several California car dealers were concerned about a ‘‘premature forcing’’ of technology and their compliance costs.

ARTICLE IN PRESS 786

B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

stations in the US. The California Partnership plans to place up to 300 fuel-cell cars and busses in fleets over the next few years, especially in the Los Angeles and San Francisco-Sacramento metro regions. The State of Michigan unveiled its program, called the ‘‘NextEnergy’’ plan, in April 2002. Michigan’s effort is similar to that of California, and includes a NextEnergy Zone in Detroit designated as a Renaissance Zone (a tax-free area that could result in tax rebates based on job creation) in the hopes of luring cutting-edge, hydrogen R&D companies from around the world. Further tax breaks would be available to individuals and institutions that purchase the hydrogenenergy technologies created in the State. This program is expected to cost $50 million over 3–5 years. The Michigan announcement was followed by a competing $100 million, three year hydrogen fuel cell initiative in Ohio (Bodipo-Memba, 2002). A smaller program was established in 2000 in Hawaii (Dunn, 2001). While the goal of Hawaii’s program is to develop hydrogen fuel for use in the State and for export based on solar, wind and geothermal energies and perhaps methane hydrates, the Michigan and Ohio programs will more likely be based on fossil fuels. Canada also has been one of the most active nations in the development of hydrogen energy and fuel-cell technologies, and is the location of numerous leading businesses in this field. Industry Canada is one of two lead government agencies, along with the Department of Natural Resources Canada, and has established a Technologies Partnership program to accelerate the development, commercialization and early adoption of hydrogen technologies. A financial commitment of $215 million (Canadian dollars) was announced in 2003 to support the program, with an aim to improve air quality and lower greenhouse gas emissions (Anonymous, 2003a). The federal government earmarked $85 million to RD&D and hydrogen economy efforts, advancing work already underway. About $60 million of new spending is being set aside for early adopters to support demonstration projects and showcases. At least $50 million will be spent on partnerships, including one established in Toronto by Fuel Cells Canada, an industry association. This effort is being coordinated by Sustainable Development Technology Canada. Finally, $20 million is being allocated for innovation excellence, which are performance enhancing and cost reducing projects. While the split of energy feedstock for the Canadian effort is unclear, abundant supplies of cheap hydroelectric power may favor its use in some provinces. 3.2. Brazil Brazil has had a serious interest in development of alternative energy sources for 30 years, having intro-

duced its National Alcohol Program in 1975 after the international oil crisis of 1973–74. What followed has been the largest-scale development of alcohol fuels in the world, specifically hydrated ethanol and gasohol for automobiles, fermented from sugarcane. Total production exceeds 3 billion gallons a year (Solomon, 2004). Since this system converts only 33% of the primary energy content into the ethanol fuel, it is important to investigate alternative technologies for increasing the production efficiency. One such option is conversion of biomass into hydrogen, which is being investigated in Brazil (Kheshgi et al., 2000). Given Brazil’s high reliance on renewable energy sources, mainly hydroelectric power and biomass fuels, the government foresees such feedstocks as the basis for hydrogen energy production. Use of wind and photovoltaic cells for hydrogen production is also possible. Large-scale production of off-peak hydroelectricity in Brazil should allow for electrolytic hydrogen production at half the cost of production from fossil fuels (Rousseff, 2003). Other than production of a half million tons of hydrogen for industrial applications, however, this sector is in its beginning stages in Brazil. The Ministry of Science and Technology has a Fuel Cell Program, which along with aid from the Global Environment Facility (GEF) has supported the operation and analysis of eight hydrogen fuel-cell busses since late 2001 (this national program became official in 2004). This will be followed up with a fleet of 200 fuel-cell busses in a single garage by 2006, probably with compressed gaseous hydrogen made through electrolysis from off-peak hydroelectricity (Schettino, 2002). 3.3. Iceland and Norway The two Scandinavian countries that are most serious about transitioning to a hydrogen-energy economy are Iceland and Norway. Iceland captured world attention in February 1999 when it declared a national goal to convert its economy to hydrogen energy by 2030. With only 294,000 inhabitants and no fossil fuel resources, Iceland has tapped its ample hydroelectric and geothermal energy resources to supply over half of its energy requirements and almost 100% of its electricity needs (Arnason and Sigfusson, 2000). The oil-import dependence of Iceland’s significant automobile and fishing boat fleets is high, however, which are the primary targets for the planned conversion to hydrogen. With inexpensive electricity at 2 cents/kWh, Iceland already makes 2000 tons of electrolytic hydrogen a year and thus hopes to provide sufficient renewable hydrogen for its entire transport sector (Jones, 2002). Icelandic New Energy (formerly the Icelandic Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Company) is developing a progression of alternative-fuel vehicles: hydrogen-powered (PEM) fuel-cell busses, methanol-powered fuel-cell cars, and

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

eventually hydrogen-powered fuel-cell cars. It has been partnering with DaimlerChrysler, Royal Dutch Shell and Norsk Hydro since 1999. The first phase of the program cost $8 million, and has been testing three fuelcell busses in Reykjavik since 2002. The next phase will gradually replace the capital city’s entire 80-bus fleet, and perhaps some elsewhere, and will cost $50 million. The first public refueling station producing on-site, electrolytic hydrogen opened in Reykjavik in 2003, and it is hoped that eventually fewer than 20 such stations will be needed for Iceland’s largest population center (Jones, 2002). The third phase of the program will phase in methanol fuel-cell cars with on-board reformers as an interim step (since the hydrogen infrastructure may still be a decade away) and eventually convert to hydrogen. Methanol will be captured from carbon released from the aluminum and metal smelting industry. Plans are also to shift Iceland’s extensive fishing boat fleet initially to methanol-powered fuel cells. The final phase will be to convert the entire motor vehicle and fishing boat fleets to hydrogen-powered fuel cells by 2030 (Dunn, 2000). While Norway also has nearly 100% renewable electricity generation from its abundant hydroelectric resources, unlike Iceland it has extensive natural gas resources, production, and expensive cars, gasoline and diesel fuels due to high taxes. This context makes Norway highly suited for a transition to hydrogen energy. A National Hydrogen Commission was established in 2003, which released its report in 2004. An initial 10-year development program and US $125–145 in funding was recommended. A 580-km hydrogen highway already has been launched between Stavanger and Oslo, with several new fueling stations to be built along this corridor (Bak, 2003c). A similar hydrogen highway is planned on the West coast of North America. 3.4. The EU While Germany has the most advanced hydrogen energy program in continental Europe, the most important regional policy initiative is that of the European Union (EU) and European Commission (EC). A major report and action plan were issued by the EU/EC in 2003 that outline the hydrogen vision (EC, 2003). The report is a significant indication of the EC’s commitment to a long-term conversion to a hydrogen economy—the first major political body to do so beyond Iceland and Japan. A High-Level Group (HLG) was put together to examine the potential contribution that hydrogen and fuel cells can play in the long run to achieving viable, sustainable energy systems for Western Europe. The HLG was created in 2002 by the Vice President of the EC responsible for energy and transport, and the Research Commissioner.

787

It consists of representatives from some of Europe’s leading energy, automobile, and research institutions, i.e., ‘‘stakeholders.’’ The report suggests that traditional fossil fuels and nuclear power can be used to produce hydrogen energy, along with renewable energy sources, though with carbon sequestration in the case of the former feedstocks. The report recommends the creation of a European Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technology Partnership, to be steered by an Advisory Council. An important local hydrogen partnership was established in London in 2002. It also suggests drafting of a Strategic Research Agenda and a Roadmap to define research priorities, for planning, to set technical targets, and to outline pathways for the development of European hydrogen and fuel-cell technologies. The driving forces behind these recommendations are both to secure a sustainable energy future (and to not contribute to global climate change). In addition the initiative is designed to secure diverse energy sources and avoid over-reliance on Middle Eastern oil imports. The draft report, however, was vague on ‘‘upstream’’ sources of hydrogen. The final report notes that renewable energy will play an increasingly important role in hydrogen energy production, along with nuclear power but, in the short term, de-carbonized fossil fuel extraction will continue to be the primary hydrogen source. There are of course dissenting views to this philosophy, e.g. in the UK and especially in Germany, where wind and solar energy are thriving (Hart, 2003; Adamson, 2004). The draft EC report suggested that fuel cells are intrinsically cleaner and more efficient that conventional energy converters. The main problem with this is the focus on the cleanliness of the energy carrier instead of the cleanliness of the fuel used to make that carrier. Several existing hydrogen and fuel cell initiatives in EU member states were highlighted, such as the testing of 30 Mercedes-Benz, fuel-cell busses since 2003 in 10 major European cities. These cities include London, Hamburg, Madrid, Barcelona and Stockholm. In addition, the report also calls for the establishment of several ‘‘centers of excellence’’ for critical research, to develop rules on intellectual property rights, etc. The government financial support anticipated for hydrogen and fuel-cell development in the EC would be boosted to $2 billion over four years, as compared to US DOE support of $1.7 billion over 5 years. The report ends with a call for strong public subsidy, since at the present time the hydrogen/fuel-cell conversion cannot compete with conventional fuel combustion technologies. The target period for initial hydrogen production with fuel cells for electricity generation, primarily from natural gas, is through 2010. The HLG believes that only 5% of new cars and 2% of the total fleet in member states may be fueled by hydrogen by 2020 (EC, 2003).

ARTICLE IN PRESS 788

B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

Table 3 Possible hydrogen fuel-cell vehicle levels for the EU Year

2020

2030

2040

Percent of new cars fuelled by zero-carbon hydrogen Percent of total fleet fuelled by zero-carbon hydrogen

5

25

35

2

15

32

Source: EC, 2003.

By 2030–40 the market shares could be much higher (Table 3). Renewable energy sources and eventually advanced nuclear power are envisioned as the principal hydrogen sources from 2020–50, though there is a danger of a ‘‘lock-in’’ to the natural gas pathway (Adamson, 2004). Even in the distant future, however, the EC foresees hydrogen production from fossil fuels with carbon sequestration still playing a major role alongside renewable energy and nuclear power. The lack of stronger renewables-based hydrogen policies in Europe is surprising, given the strong commitment to wind and (to a lesser extent) solar energy production in Germany, Spain and Denmark (Solomon, 2004). There are also major hydrogen and renewable energy initiatives in the UK, though these are at an early stage. Finally, several of the initial hydrogen energy fueling stations in Western Europe are based on renewable energy sources for the hydrogen, such as hydroelectricity, geothermal, solar photovoltaic and wind power (see Table 2). 3.5. Japan and South Korea Japan is one of the most important players in the international effort to develop a hydrogen economy, not merely in R&D but also in terms of production plans. Several factors are responsible for Japan’s leadership role: the government’s commitment to the Kyoto Protocol target of 6% greenhouse gas reductions by 2010, the country’s high dependence on imported petroleum for transportation, and Japan’s need to retain its position as the high-tech superpower for new technologies both for its image and its economy. The WE-NET (World Energy Network) project was initiated in 1993 to enable the introduction of a worldwide network for development of abundant renewable energy resources, their transportation and utilization. The WE-NET project, completed in 2002, was a large government–academia–industry joint venture coordinated by the New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization, which acted as the chief vehicle for planning and implementation of hydrogen related R&D (WE-NET, 2004). Phase I of the WE-NET project lasted from 1993–98 and focused on research on the feasibility of different hydrogen tech-

nologies, and planning a vision for Japan’s hydrogen energy network. Phase II of the WE-NET project lasted from 1999–2002 and focused on introduction, demonstration and testing of selected hydrogen technologies and infrastructure as well as further research and planning. The combined R&D budget for the first two phases was 20 billion yen (nearly US $200 million) (Fukuda et al., 2001). A follow-up project called the Development of Fundamental Technologies in the Safe Utilization of Hydrogen is envisioned to last until 2020 and focus on the gradual diffusion and penetration of the hydrogen energy infrastructure in Japan. The WE-NET project has developed detailed plans for all the different components of the hydrogen energy network including production, storage, transport and utilization. In the near term most of the hydrogen is expected to come from reforming of fossil fuel based sources with electrolysis, particularly from renewable generated electricity, becoming the major mode of production in the long term. The Solid Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis method has been selected as the method of choice for electrolytic hydrogen production due to its higher efficiency (WENET, 2001). However, the Nuclear Hydrogen Society was established in Japan in 2001, which calls for a greater role of nuclear power in clean hydrogen production (Hori, 2001). Although the WE-NET project has estimated that the hydrogen production potential from renewable energy in Japan to be 210 G Nm3/year, renewable based hydrogen is only expected to contribute about 15% of the hydrogen consumed in 2030 (Fukuda et al., 2001). Japan’s total hydrogen consumption is estimated to be 49.6 G Nm3/year in 2030, which would represent only about 4% of the total energy consumption (Fukuda et al., 2001). Liquefaction has been seen as the main method for large-scale hydrogen storage and transportation, and the WE-NET project has been extensively researching liquefaction plants and liquefied hydrogen tankers. Development of a hydrogen combustion turbine is another important area of R&D for WE-NET, and a pilot plant with an expected 60% efficiency will be developed for testing (WE-NET, 2001). The area where progress and publicity has been most evident has been FCVs and related infrastructure. Several dozen FCVs made by Japanese (Toyota, Honda, etc.) as well as international (GM, DaimlerChrysler) automakers are currently in service in various public and commercial fleets in Japan, starting with a handful in 2001. The Japan Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Demonstration Project (JHFC) was launched in 2002 by the Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry in partnership with all major automakers, Japanese utilities and energy companies. Under the JHFC project, 9 of 11 hydrogen refueling stations have been built in the Tokyo region so far, each of which uses a different technology such as gasoline reforming, naphtha

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792 Table 4 Fuel cell introduction targets in Japan Year

2010

2020

2030

Fuel-cell vehicles Stationary fuel cell systems

50,000 2100 MW

5 million 10,000 MW

15 million 12,500 MW

789

Hyundai has already unveiled two such SUV models at auto shows and plans to launch them for fleet operations by 2004 with limited consumer availability planned for 2010 (Anonymous, 2003b).

Source: Fukuda et al. (2001).

3.6. China

reforming, methanol reforming, lye (sodium hydroxide) electrolysis, high-pressure gaseous hydrogen storage, liquefied hydrogen storage, etc. (JHFC, 2004). Lessons learned from the operation of these stations will be applied in the future development of refueling infrastructure across the country. The JHFC project has also started testing fuel-cell cars and buses under a variety of real-life conditions to gather data on performance, reliability and fuel consumption for evaluation. The WE-NET project estimates that in the near term methanol or gasoline reforming would be the most practicable technology for fuel cell applications but has a long-term goal of adopting pure hydrogen. The official forecast for fuel-cell penetration in Japan is shown in Table 4. South Korea’s quest for the hydrogen economy is taking shape under the influence of two major factors: its 40% dependence on nuclear power, and oil-import dependence for transportation. South Korea has developed a hydrogen powered transportation plan that would cut the nation’s dependence on fossil fuels by 20% by 2020. The Ministry of Science and Technology has allocated 986 billion won (US$ 843 million) until 2020 to fund the creation of this hydrogen energy supply, which will come almost exclusively from nuclear reactors (Asia Pulse, 2004). The plan calls for three research institutes—the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, the Korea Institute of Energy Research (KIER), and the Korea Institute of Science and Technology (KIST)—to jointly conduct R&D for the relevant technologies. If the initiative is successful, South Korea is projected to save 85 million barrels of crude oil per year and cut CO2 emissions by 10 million tons per year by 2020 (Asia Pulse, 2004). Most of the research at the KIST and KIER is focused on electro-catalytic production of hydrogen, hydrogen storage and fuel-cell technologies. Fuel-cell research is proceeding in the following directions: direct methanol fuel cells (DMFCs) for portable power, polymer electrolyte membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) for automobiles, molten carbonate fuel cells for large-scale power plants, and solid oxide fuel cells for stationary power (Kim et al., 2004; KIER, 2004). Meanwhile, Hyundai Motors, Korea’s largest auto company, has been collaborating with US-based UTC Fuel Cells and Enova Systems to develop fuel cell powered SUVs.

China has become one of the largest potential markets for hydrogen fuel cell use in the last few years, primarily for its transport sector. As of 2002 China held 25% of the world’s 164 patents related to fuel cells (Anonymous, 2002). Fuel-cell development in China is largely motivated by the nation’s need to reduce air pollution emissions from automobiles, busses, and gasoline-fueled bicycles and scooters, especially in time for the 2008 Summer Olympic Games in Beijing. Similar initiatives are being developed in Taiwan (Tso and Chang, 2003). Additional motivators include the need to reduce foreign oil imports and to cut greenhouse gas emissions. Sales of electric bicycles and scooters in China have grown dramatically in the last 10 years, now totaling over 1 million a year. Demand growth has been facilitated by bans on gasoline-fueled bicycles and scooters in Beijing and Shanghai, among other large cities. Palcan Fuel Cells of Canada has a joint venture with Shanghai Mingliang Plastic Co. to manufacture up to 20,000 PEM fuel cell stacks each year, which Palcan claims will be sold well below the market price starting in 2005. The fuel-cell scooters will be powered by a 2 kW fuel cell and be able to travel more than 60 miles on one hydrogen canister (Little, 2004). A Taiwan Fuel Cell Partnership has been created and is promoting fuel-cell scooters in the same time frame on the island (Tso and Chang, 2003). If this development program succeeds, applications in motor vehicles and busses will soon follow. The Dalian Institute of Chemical Physics, an affiliate of the Chinese Academy of Sciences which has been conducting fuel cell R&D for over 30 years, is investing $12 million US in 2002–04 toward the development of 75 and 150 kW PEM fuel cells that could be used in the larger vehicle market (Cropper, 2002a). In the meantime, China is using $32.4 million in funds from the GEF, United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the Chinese Government to purchase and pilot test six fuel-cell busses over 4 years in Shanghai and Beijing. While most of the hydrogen in these programs is expected to be derived from steam reforming of natural gas, a hog farm in South China may use methane gas to run its fuel-cell power unit at a site built by UTC Fuel Cells. In addition, the SouthNorth Institute for Sustainable Development, a nonprofit NGO based in Beijing, is working to promote renewable-energy-based hydrogen FCVs in Shanghai and elsewhere (Cropper, 2002a).

ARTICLE IN PRESS 790

B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

3.7. India India has been a leader in the field of renewable energy in the developing world with a full fledged Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources (MNES) for over a decade and research experience going back more than two decades. The entry of hydrogen into the renewable energy scene in India has been fairly recent, however, and so far mostly limited to R&D and a few demonstration projects. Increasing interest in commercial uses of hydrogen for distributed generation and automotive fuel in the foreseeable future is likely given India’s vast rural population where extension of the electricity grid is uneconomical, and the high dependence on expensive imported petroleum for automotive fuel. The MNES, with an annual operating budget exceeding US $ 100 million, has been extensively supporting hydrogen and fuel-cell research at many of India’s top universities and public research laboratories (MNES, 2003). Using such support, different types of fuel cells of varying capacities have been developed and operated by Bharat Heavy Electricals Ltd., the Tata Energy Research Institute, the Central Electrochemical Research Institute, the Indian Institute of Science, the Indian Institute of Technology, Chennai, the Indian Institute of Chemical Technology, among others (Cropper, 2002b). Researchers have also been successful in the biological production of hydrogen from organic effluents and a large-scale bioreactor of 12.5 m3 capacity is being developed in Chennai (ATIP, 1998). Efforts are also underway to utilize significant amounts of hydrogen produced as a by-product in many industries such as the chlor-alkali industry, which currently has no applications (TERI, 1999). Researchers at Benaras Hindu University have converted regular motorcycles with 100 cm3 internal combustion engines to run on hydrogen stored in special containers as metallic hydrides. These motorcycles have been successfully tested with ranges above 50 km per charge. Ten such motorcycles have been running in Benaras since 2002 and field tests have been recently conducted in New Delhi (Dutta, 2004). This development has great significance since 70% of all privately owned vehicles in India are two-wheelers (motorcycles and scooters). The MNES, in collaboration with industry has plans to put on the road 1,000 two and three wheelers running on hydrogen by 2005 (Government of India, 2003). Efforts are also underway to adapt light cars and buses to hydrogen, a move that is likely to be helped by the growing number of electric and compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles in the New Delhi region. Under a UNDP/GEF funded project a 5 year development and demonstration program of eight fuel cell buses in New Delhi is already under way (Cropper, 2002b).

In 2003 India joined the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (see below), a move that will provide impetus to collaborative research and funding opportunities. The US DOE and US-based ECD Ovonics, Inc. have already launched a collaborative effort with Indian auto manufacturer Mahindra & Mahindra to launch a hydrogen powered three-wheeler with a US $500,000 grant from the US Agency for International Development (Anonymous, 2004). 3.8. International cooperation The International Energy Agency (IEA) has recognized the potential benefits of a hydrogen economy since it launched its Hydrogen Agreement in 1977. Moreover, the IEA recognizes the technological potential of hydrogen to contribute to a stable, sustainable supply of energy and to reduce carbon dioxide emissions. Consequently, recent projects focus on collaborative research support among member nations on costeffective hydrogen production, transportation, distribution, end use and storage based on renewable energy sources (Elam et al., 2003). The current hydrogen research priorities of the IEA are electrolysis from photovoltaic cells, wind and biomass energy sources, storage in metal hydrides and carbon nanostructures, and integrative modeling tools. These research and demonstration projects have been supported in Germany, Switzerland, Italy, Spain, and US and Canada. None of this R&D, however, is likely to have a significant near-term effect on the commercial deployment of hydrogen energy systems. The next steps toward commercial deployment of cost-effective hydrogen energy technologies may be facilitated by the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy (IPHE). The IPHE was established during a meeting in Washington, DC, hosted by the DOE, from November 18–21, 2003 (Hoffmann, 2003). Participants and member nations include Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, the EC, France, Germany, Iceland, India, Italy, Japan, South Korea, Norway, Russia, the UK and the US, with the DOE serving as the initial secretariat. The IPHE will coordinate its activities with the IEA, but is intended to be a mechanism to organize and implement cooperative R&D and deployment activities. It hopes to achieve a practical option for participating countries’ consumers to be able to purchase a competitively priced, safe, hydrogen-powered vehicle that can be conveniently refueled, by 2020. A Shell Hydrogen representative estimated that $20 billion would need to be invested to supply just 2% of Europe’s cars with hydrogen by this date (Hoffmann, 2003). The work of the IPHE will reflect the policies of its member states in their focus on energy feedstocks. Thus, the initial assumption is that the hydrogen sources will

ARTICLE IN PRESS B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

be a mix of fossil fuels, nuclear power, and renewable energy sources, reflective of national energy mixed and policies as discussed earlier. The US policy has been criticized by a new Green Hydrogen Coalition, made up of environmental groups and other non-profit organizations (Hoffmann, 2003). Only Iceland and Brazil, thus far, have a hydrogen path that focuses on renewable energy sources. Most other member states believe that the technology options and energy sources must be kept open.

4. Summary and conclusions Despite the extensive attention being given to hydrogen development around the world, only two major automobile companies and two major political units have specific targets and timetables for hydrogen, fuel cells, or vehicle production. DaimlerChrylser announced plans to produce 100,000 hydrogen fuel cell cars by 2010, while GM claimed it would manufacture and sell ten times that number. Whereas both carmakers have backed off these initial announcements, there is virtually no chance that these targets will be met. Other automakers seem to have similarly shifting targets and goals. The EU, with a combined population of 454 million, has a plan to introduce these cars so that its total on-road fleet could reach 15% by 2030, and more than double that level by 2040. These levels are not proposed targets, however. Nonetheless, the EU market is crucial since its population is over 7% of the world total, and is over 50% more than in the US. Iceland, with just 294,000 people, also has announced an ambitious plan to convert to a hydrogen energy economy by 2030, but has been vague about many of the details. The third major political unit with hydrogen targets and timetables is Japan. In this case, 5 million FCVs are planned for 2020, perhaps making the Japanese program the world’s most ambitious. While the initial hydrogen energy, fuel cell and vehicle targets and timetables may not be met, they at least indicate that there should be a very large market for hydrogen and fuel cells for cars and busses in Europe, Japan, and the US, as well as in Brazil and East Asia (two-wheelers and busses). The latter case is a prime example of a niche market that such vehicles will probably need to be adopted in before hydrogen and fuel cells are consumer ready for widespread use in automobiles. Even so, it is doubtful that there will be a large demand for hydrogen vehicles (or in other applications) before 2030, unless GM or another carmaker is very successful in selling such cars much sooner. The lack of specific targets and timetables in North America is a problem. While much attention has been given to the potential sustainability of hydrogen energy development (Hart,

791

2003), in the next few decades most plans call for its production to be based on cheaper energy sources such as natural gas or coal. Thus even if carbon sequestration becomes viable, hydrogen production from fossil fuels cannot be sustainable in the long-term. Only Brazil and Iceland envision a high percentage of hydrogen being made from renewable energy sources by 2030, and even in these cases are vague about specific plans. In the other, main emerging markets for hydrogen energy renewable energy sources will play an important role, but may be subservient to fossil fuels. Thus the world still has a long way to go before a true hydrogen energy revolution can occur and be sustained.

Acknowledgements The authors wish to thank Raimund Bleischwitz and an anonymous referee for several helpful comments on an earlier draft of this paper. References Adamson, K.A., 2004. Hydrogen from renewable resources—the hundred year commitment. Energy Policy 32 (10), 1142–1231. Anonymous, 2002. Analysis: China strategically develops green hydrogen energy. Beijing Times, 18 January 2002. Available at: http://english1.peopledaily.com.cn/200201/18/ eng20020118_88922.shtml Anonymous, 2003a. Canada commits $215M for hydrogen-based technologies. EM (Air & Waste Management Association’s Magazine for Environmental Managers) 9(12), 41. Anonymous, 2003b. Hyundai, UTC fuel cells collaborating on allweather FCV. Fuel Cells Bulletin 8, 6. Anonymous, 2004. US pursues hydrogen future in India. Fuel Cell Today, 31 March 2004. Arnason, B., Sigfusson, T.I., 2000. Iceland—a future hydrogen economy. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 25 (5), 389–394. Asia Pulse, 2004. Korea planning to develop hydrogen energy technology. Fuel Cell Today, 11 March 2004. ATIP, 1998. India’s hydrogen energy program. Asian Technology Information Program, Report ATIP98.060. Available at: http:// www.atip.org/public/atip.reports.98/atip98.060r.html. Bak, P.E., 2003a. DaimlerChrysler to expand on-road fleet of fuel cell vehicles to more than 100 in 2004. H2Carsbiz, 14 November 2003. Bak, P.E., 2003b. Anuvu introduces hydrogen fuel cell-powered pickup truck. H2Carsbiz, 12 November 2003. Bak, P.E., 2003c. Norway builds hydrogen highway from Stavanger to Oslo. H2Carsbiz, 26 November 2003. Bak, P.E., 2004. Ford and BP take hydrogen and fuel cell cars to Michigan, Florida and California. H2Carsbiz, 27 April 2004. Ballard Power Systems, Inc., 2003. 2003 Annual Report. Burnaby, Canada. Baum, D., 2002. GM’s billion-dollar bet. Wired 10 (8), 1–8. Bodipo-Memba, A., 2002. Michigan vs. Ohio: States Compete to be the Fuel Cell Capital. Detroit Free Press, June 26, 2002. Available at: http://www.freep.com/money/business/fuel26_20020626.htm Bouza, A., Read, C.J., Satyapal, S., Milliken, J.A., 2004. Hydrogen storage. 2004 Annual DOE Hydrogen Program Review. US Department of Energy, Office of Hydrogen, Fuel Cells and Infrastructure Technologies, Washington, DC.

ARTICLE IN PRESS 792

B.D. Solomon, A. Banerjee / Energy Policy 34 (2006) 781–792

Cropper, M., 2002a. Fuel cells in China: a fuel cell market survey. Fuel Cell Today, 21 June 2002. Cropper, M., 2002b. Fuel cells in India: a survey of current developments. Fuel Cell Today, 11 December 2002. Cropper, M., Geiger, S., Jollie, D., 2004. Fuel cells: a survey of current developments. Journal of Power Sources 131 (1–2), 57–61. Duic, N., Carvalho, M.D., 2004. Increasing renewable energy sources in island energy supply: case study Porto Santo. Renewable & Sustainable Energy Reviews 8 (4), 383–399. Dunn, S., 2000. The hydrogen experiment. Worldwatch 13 (6), 14–25. Dunn, S., 2001. Hydrogen futures: toward a sustainable energy system. Worldwatch Paper 157, Worldwatch Institute, Washington, DC. Dutta, S., 2004. Now, India’s own fuel cell vehicles. The Times of India, 8 February 2004. Available at: http://timesofindia. indiatimes.com/articleshow/483019.cms EC (European Commission), 2003. Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cells: A Vision of Our Future (Summary Report). EC High Level Working Group on Hydrogen and Fuel Cells, Brussels. Elam, C.C., Padro, C.E.G., Sandrock, G., Luzzi, A., Lindblad, P., Hagen, E.F., 2003. Realizing the hydrogen future: the International Energy Agency’s efforts to advance hydrogen energy technologies. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (6), 601–607. Farrell, A.E., Keith, D.W., Corbett, J.J., 2003. A strategy for introducing hydrogen into transportation. Energy Policy 31 (13), 1357–1367. Fuel Cells, 2000. Worldwide hydrogen fueling stations. Available at: http://www.fuelcells.org/h2fuelingstations.pdf. 2004 Fukuda, K., Ogata, K., Kobayashi, O., 2001. A hydrogen introduction scenario in Japan. Paper presented at the 11th Canadian Hydrogen Conference, 17–20 June 2001, Victoria, Canada. Government of India, 2003. Indian oil companies plan to install hydrogen filling stations. Government of India Press Release appearing in Fuel Cell Today, 15 December 2003. Gummer, J.H., Head, C.R., 2003. Hydrogen, hydropower and world poverty. The International Journal of Hydropower & Dams 5, 67–71. Hart, D., 2000. Sustainable energy conversion: fuel cells—the competitive option? Journal of Power Sources 86 (1–2), 23–27. Hart, D., 2003. Hydrogen—a truly sustainable transport fuel? Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment 1 (3), 138–145. Hoffmann, P., 2002. Tomorrow’s Energy: Hydrogen, Fuel Cells, and the Prospect for a Cleaner Planet. MIT Press, Cambridge, MA 301pp. Hoffmann, P., 2003. 15 countries & European Union sign historic hydrogen cooperation pact. The Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter, December 2003, pp. 1–4. Hori, M., 2001. Nuclear hydrogen society established in Japan. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 26 (9), 1001–1002. JHFC, 2004. Japan hydrogen and fuel cell demonstration project. Homepage. Available at: http://www.jhfc.jp/e/project/index.html Jones, W.D., 2002. All-hydrogen transportation eyed by Iceland. IEEE Spectrum 39 (5), 18–20. Keith, D.W., Farrell, A.E., 2003. Rethinking hydrogen cars. Science 301, 315–316. Kheshgi, H.S., Prince, R.C., Marland, G., 2000. The potential of biomass fuels in the context of global climate change. Annual Review of Energy and the Environment 25, 199–244. KIER (Korea Institute of Energy Research), 2004. Official website. Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Research Department, Korea Institute of

Energy Research. Daejeon, Republic of Korea. Available at: http:// www.kier.re.kr/english/intro/organ/hydro.html Kiley, D., 2004. Development of hydrogen vehicles gets first cash infusion. USA Today, 28 April 2004, p. B2. Kim, D., Cho, E.A., Hong, S.A., Oh, I.H., Ha, H.Y., 2004. Recent progress in passive direct methanol fuel cells at KIST. Journal of Power Sources 130 (1/2), 172–177. Little, J.B., 2004. China power: how do you bring clean energy to 1.25 billion people? On Earth 25 (4), 47. Logan, B.E., 2004. Extracting hydrogen and electricity from renewable resources. Environmental Science & Technology 38 (9), 160A–167A. MacLean, H.L., Lave, L.B., 2003. Evaluating automobile fuel/ propulsion system technologies. Progress in Energy and Combustion Science 29 (1), 1–69. MNES (Ministry of Non-Conventional Energy Sources), 2003. Annual Report 2002–2003. Government of India, New Delhi, India. Mourato, S., Saynor, B., Hart, D., 2004. Greening London’s black cabs: a study of driver’s preferences for fuel cell taxis. Energy Policy 32 (5), 685–695. Munro, J., 2003. BMW goal: Affordable hydrogen cars by 2010. The Greenville News. Available at: http://greenvilleonlinbe.com/news/ special/report/2003/06/09/200306098048.htm National Research Council (NRC), 2004. The Hydrogen Economy: Opportunities, Costs, Barriers, and R&D Needs. National Academies Press, Washington, DC. Ogden, J.M., Williams, R.H., Larson, E.D., 2004. Societal lifecycle costs of cars with alternative fuels/engines. Energy Policy 32 (1), 7–27. Rousseff, D., 2003. Statements of Brazilian minister of energy and mines at the Ministerial Meeting of the International Partnership for the Hydrogen Economy, 18–21 November 2003, Washington, DC. Schettino, M., 2002. Environmental strategy for energy: hydrogen fuel cell bus for Brazil. Proceedings, RIO 02—World Climate & Energy Event, January 6–11, Rio de Janeiro, pp. 217–223. Solomon, B.D., 2004. Economic geography of energy. In: Cleveland, C.J. (Ed.), Encyclopedia of Energy. Elsevier, Oxford, UK, Vol. 2, 25–34. TERI, 1999. Market assessment for fuel cells in India: stationary and automotive applications. TERI Project Report No. 1999RT42, The Energy and Resources Institute, New Delhi, India. The Hydrogen & Fuel Cell Letter (HFCL), 2002. Toyota, Honda launch California fuel cell fleets with back-to-back events, December 2002. Tso, C., Chang, S.Y., 2003. A viable niche market—fuel cell scooters in Taiwan. International Journal of Hydrogen Energy 28 (7), 757–762. US Department of Energy (DOE), 2002. National Hydrogen Energy Roadmap. Washington, DC. Vaitheeswaran, V.V., 2003. Power to the People. Farrar, Straus and Giroux, New York 358pp. WE–NET, 2001. World Energy Network—Japan. 2001 Annual Report. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. Kawasaki City, Japan. WE-NET, 2004. World Energy Network—Japan. Homepage. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization. Kawasaki City, Japan. Available at: http://www.enaa.or.jp/WE-NET/ contents_e.html