Gem Summary

An independent standard to calculate and communicate earthquake risk, raise awareness, promote mitigation and insurance use, and stimulate risk transfer Over 420,000 people died in the last decade due to earthquakes and tsunamis, mostly in the developing world, where the risk is increasing due to rapid population growth. But in many seismic regions, no hazard models exist, and even where models do exist, they are intelligible only by experts or available only to paying customers. We believe that better risk awareness can reduce the toll that earthquakes take, by leading to better construction, improved emergency response, and greater access to insurance. The Global Earthquake Model (GEM) answers this need, as an internationally sanctioned program initiated by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). GEM will establish an authoritative standard for calculating and communicating quake hazard and risk, and will be the critical instrument to support decisions and actions that reduce earthquake losses worldwide. All who face risk, from homeowners to governments, need accurate and transparent risk information before they will take mitigating action. Our goal is to enable risk reduction by providing the information in a manner that is understandable to all users, regardless of their background or location. GEM will create a common framework for reducing earthquake risk by building on recent technical advances in seismic knowledge and improved international cooperation in research and practice, including the 1992-1999 Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Project (GSHAP). GEM will integrate developments on the forefront of scientific and engineering knowledge of earthquakes, in three modules, hazard, risk, and economics. The hazard module calculates probabilities of earthquake occurrence and resulting

shaking at any given location. The risk module calculates fatalities, injuries, and damage based on expected shaking, population, building vulnerability and inventory. The economic risk module of GEM estimates monetary losses as a consequence of earthquakes, and delivers tools for making educated decisions on managing risk. GEM will be a versatile online tool with a map-based graphical interface. Its modular input and output can be varied to suit multiple user groups: A government ministry uses GEM to decide how best to deploy its limited resources: systematically strengthen buildings, enforce the building code for new construction, or issue a national catastrophe bond for emergency response funds. A homeowner or company uses GEM to learn if the property is at risk, and to decide whether to buy earthquake insurance, seismically retrofit, or relocate. An investor uses GEM to compare the earthquake probabilities of a given instrument to those in an offering circular, and to decide what price to pay for it. This information is available to both buyer and seller, increasing confidence in a fair transaction. GEM will be the first global, open source model for seismic risk assessment at a national and regional scale, and aims to achieve broad scientific participation and independence, and better access to national datasets. GEM development will occur in a coordinated global network of regional centers, with a high degree of interaction among the centers and the central secretariat. Broad acceptance of the models will be ensured by including local knowledge in all aspects of hazard and risk assessment and securing participation of local experts through development. All GEM efforts will be carried out using a common global computer infrastructure and consensus standards, and all contributions, including models, tools, and data, will be rigorously vetted—and independently tested—to ensure uniformity and conformance with the highest scientific standards. GEM has reached 50% of its funding goal of € 35 million, with support from Munich Re, Zurich Financial Services, AIR Worldwide, and the Swiss, German and Singapore governments. GEM sponsors gain a guiding role, and they benefit from early insight for optimal usage, early access to emerging insurance and bond markets, and a visible affiliation with a market-making public standard. Sponsors from both public and private sources are cooperatively joining forces in this unique five-year alliance that promotes a larger involvement of the insurance and financial sectors in serving a humanitarian imperative and offering a key to sustainable development.

GEM's founders have a proven track record of achieving authoritative global consensus on earthquake hazard. Domenico Giardini (ETH Zurich) led the 1995-1999 Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Project (GSHAP), resulting in the first comprehensive global map of seismic shaking, a catalyst for building code development.

Ross Stein (USGS Menlo Park) led international

seismic hazard assessments for Istanbul (1999-2000) and Tokyo (2004-2007), and helped to build in the 2008 California statewide hazard forecast. Jochen Zschau (GFZ Potsdam) is past vice-president of the European Seismological Commission, serves on the steering committee of the World Agency of Planetary Monitoring and Earthquake Risk Reduction, and is GEM’s liaison to the OECD. Structural engineer and MBA Kate Stillwell is GEM’s Acting Executive Director.

[email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] / [email protected] +41 1 633 2610

+1 650 329 4840

+49 331 288 1200

+1 650 303 7906

Motivation for GEM: Growing population in hazardous cities could lead to mega disasters and global losses Dhaka

Tokyo

Kolkata Manila

Istanbul

Mexico City

Jakarta

L.A.

Tehran

Lima

GEM Precursor: UN/IDNDR Global Seismic Hazards Assessment Program Map, 2000

In 50 years, there is a 10% chance of exceeding the indicated ground acceleration (in g)

0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 g

Sources of GEM Sponsorship

15m € €5m 15m €

Founding sponsor, Munich Re Other sponsors (in progress) Public Funds (in progress)

Proposed GEM Governance Structure

Group  Governing  Board (GB) 

Science  Advisory  Committee  (SAC)  Board of  Directors  (BD) 

Overall Goal  Set and  maintain  overall  direction of  GEM.  Ensure  maximum  global impact.  Establish  scientific  authority of  GEM.  Guide  BD and GB.  Deliver GEM  Outcomes    Governing  Board will set  policy for  selection of  Board of  Directors 

Members  • Private sponsors  • Public sponsors  • Governments  • World Bank  • IAEE  • IASPEI  • OECD GSF  Approx. 30 to 40  established experts,  representation  from each module.  

Tasks  • Establish strategy  • Allocate funding  • Provide political backing  • Monitor projects  • Oversee and advise BD  • Promote GEM externally 

Meetings  2 times per  year,  Kickoff  meeting  Fall 2008  

• • • •

3 director positions  permanently  associated with  institutions.  Remaining  positions are  appointed by GB  and have 2‐year  renewable terms. 

• • • • • •

First  meeting  June 08,  plus once  per year.  3 times per  year plus  bi‐weekly  conference  calls   

Set GEM standards  Oversee scientific quality  Ensure global relevance  Ensure regional ownership 

Raise Funds  Run contracts  Detailed resource allocation  Oversee regional center  Approve regional budgets  Monitor work of other  centers  • Monitor compliance with  consensus standards