Futuring
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Futuring Part I Bruce LaDuke, Futurist, Indianapolis, IN
Futuring is an emerging discipline that has come into existence because society is changing radically at all levels and with increasing speed, variability, and complexity. Communities and all types of enterprises are beginning to feel the crushing weight of exponential change. We find an example of this change within technology, where Moore’s law accurately predicted that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years. Figure 1.1 shows that progression in the capabilities of Intel computer chips.
Figure 1.1
Image Source: Intel.com Website: http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm
But this level of change is not limited to technological change. There are simultaneous revolutions in many categories simultaneously. These include: Technology Information / Communication / Connectivity / Privacy Environment / Biodiversity Medical / Heath Military / Security Economy Culture / Values Politics Energy Demographic Business Education Immigration If the change was in any one area, it might be manageable using traditional approaches. But again, simultaneous changes are pushing the limits of all social systems. Next we will look at exponential change in several different areas. The mother of these is a multi-dimensional revolution. The Internet is not just a technological change—It also represents a revolution in the connectedness of our culture, the ubiquitous presence of information, the way we communicate, and threats to our privacy. Figure 1.2 shows the exponential growth of Internet Users.
Figure 1.2
As the ‘global village’ becomes more and more interconnected, national boundaries blur, political systems become more and more virtual, electronic nations emerge, positive and negative news is instantaneous, and the fundamental nature of business is radically changed. One weak signal of the impact of these changes can be found in the realm of politics. Ron Paul, republican presidential candidate raised $4.3 million on November 5, 2007. This was the larges single day of fundraising by any Republican candidate and the largest single day amount for any candidate in U.S. history. Shortly thereafter he beat his own record by raising $6.3 million in one day. The bulk of this money came from online contributions and online supporters instead of traditional media exposure.
As another example, the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communications. Figure 1.3 shows the 668% growth of major Internet services. These services are transforming the way we collaborate, search for information, receive entertainment, and do business. Figure 1.3
Image Source: Alexa.com
The environment is another area of massive changes. Figure 1.4 shows the percentage of species threatened by extinction. Figure 1.4
Image Source: Nature Journal http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v405/n6783/full/405234a0.html
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levels. In addition, the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet. And then there is global warming. There are clear indicators that the earth is warming, though the regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated. Figure 1.5 shows the trends in temperature anomalies as recorded by climatological agencies. Figure 1.6 then, shows the exponential increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth. Figure 1.5
Figure 1.6
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
If global warming is a reality, regardless of the cause, or frequency of warming cycles, sea levels are projected to rise substantially. Figure 1.7 shows the projected rise of sea level. A rise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally. It is important to note that much of the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated. Figure 1.7
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the world. The U.N. estimates shown in Figure 1.8 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010 and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people. Figure 1.8
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems of various countries. Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global change—China. The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas. China now has 8 out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world. Smog from China is so dense, that it is crossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles.
Image source: China Environmental News Digest http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v405/n6783/full/405234a0.html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region. In addition, China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources. Figure 1.9 shows these percentages. Figure 1.9 – China’s share of world consumption of materials
Image Source: Address to Australian Business Economists http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1112/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=Australian_Business_Economists.htm
The Rise of an Integral Culture All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American people. According to the results of a social survey detailed in the book, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World, Paul H. Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Anderson contend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a technocratic society toward an integral culture. According to Ray, these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is real. Ray calls the people who are advancing this new worldview “Cultural Creatives.” They are now 50 million strong, or about one quarter of the United States population.
Cultural Creatives Excerpt from: The Rise of Integral Culture, By Paul H. Ray, NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW # 37, PAGE 04, SPRING 1996 Compared to the rest of society, the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic and spiritual, have more concern for relationships and psychological development, are more environmentally concerned, and are more open to creating a positive future. According to my research, this group comprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US, or about 44 million people. If indeed an Integral Culture is emerging, we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominant cultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium. There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measure at this point in time: Traditional, Modern, and Transmodern. (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to presentday observations of three different subcultures of values. I have called the bearers of these subcultures of values Heartlanders, Modernists, and Cultural Creative.
Because values are at the core of society, this shift represents a fundamental change in how we will approach our world in the future. From a marketing perspective, futurist Faith Popcorn, futurist and New York Times best-selling author of The Popcorn Report, describes 16 trends shaping future American consumer behaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray. Faith Popcorn – 16 Trends 1. Cocooning: People stay at home, building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain even dangerous - outside world. The "country living" style of home furnishings is a case in point of products designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend. 2. Clanning: We're staying at home but still want to connect with other, like-minded souls. How? Internet chat rooms are one way we "clan" but still cocoon. 3. Fantasy adventure: The operative concept is "risk free," as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe) travel, new foods and possibly virtual reality. 4. Pleasure revenge: "This is 'Screw it, I'm wearing my mink coat,'" says Popcorn - nd more broadly, pleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbidden pleasures. "Smoking is another pleasure revenge," says Popcorn. 5. Small indulgences: Even if we can't afford a Porsche, maybe we can afford a Porsche watch. Stressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little, affordable treats - from good cigars to Godiva chocolates. 6. Anchoring: Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings. 7. Egonomics: Rebelling against uniformity and sterility, we seek to stamp an "I" wherever we go as a quest for individuality becomes a major trend. 8. FemaleThink: A big shift away from traditional, goal-oriented models to "the more caring and sharing, familial ones," says Popcorn. 9. Mancipation: Popcorn calls it "a NewThink for men," and it means men will break out of strictly business ruts into more individual freedoms 10. Cashing out: Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling, simpler ways of life, often in the countryside. 11. Being alive: "Wellness" as a concept continues to mushroom, and healthy living is a dominant philosophy. 12. Down-aging: Nostalgia for a childhood past: "When we eat Oreos, this is down-aging," says Popcorn. 13. Vigilante consumers: The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price, as consumers organize boycotts and go on the attack. 14. Icon toppling: If it's big, established and traditional, it's in trouble as we join in overturning all the pillars of society. 15. SOS: "Save Our Society." A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a new environmental consciousness, new ethics and a new compassion. Source: Trend spotting: futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn – Interview, Entrepreneur, Dec, 1996 by Robert McGarvey, COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media, Inc., COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0DTI/is_n13_v24/ai_19021526/pg_1
And business itself is changing. The book It's Alive, by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis includes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility within business.
Statistics from the Book, “It’s Alive”
Accelerated Change
•
The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years' tenure in that role has decreased from 57 percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001.
•
In 1991, the number of new household, health, beauty, food, and beverage products totaled 15,400. In 2001, that number had more than doubled to a record 32,025.
•
From 1972 to 1987, the U.S. government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrial classification. From 1987 to 1997, it deleted 500. At the same time, the government added or redefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987, and almost 1,000 from 1987 to 1997.
•
In 1978, about 10,000 firms were failing annually, and this number had been stable since 1950.
•
By1986, 60,000 firms were failing annually, and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly 73,000.
Increased Volatility
•
From 1950 to 2000, variability in S&P 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold. Through the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, days on which the market fluctuated by three percent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year. For the past two years it happened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3).
•
The number of firms that take "special items" in their accounting has grown dramatically. The number of S&P 500 firms declaring "special losses" has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000. Special items are, by definition, an admission of being caught flat-footed by change more volatile than the normal course of the business cycle. We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points. The first is that change has accelerated. That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidly. Volatility is the degree of variability around a given trend. Our second point is that volatile events are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently. These reinforce each other, but they're not the same thing. Source: It’s Alive, by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends These are just a few examples of the megatrends, trends, and weak signals that are impacting our world, our communities, and our enterprises. To say the world is changing is a gross understatement. The world is squarely in the middle of a revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries.
It’s actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing. Consider also: The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissions Rumors of peak oil, the escalating price of oil, and the rise of oil nations that are either unfriendly or hostile toward the U.S. The green revolution. The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers of youth in the U.S. This will strain social security, Medicaid, and other social aid programs; create workforce shortages, and strain the U.S. economy. Global increases in immigration/emigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that result. Growing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technology. The rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nations hostile to U.S. interests. The rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat it. The proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations. A potential nuclear Iran. The growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care information. The rise of environmentalist groups as a political force. There are over 200 million such groups globally. Increasing scientific moral issues stemming from, e.g., stem cell research, cloning, animal / human hybrid cells, genetic research, artificial intelligence, or transhumanism (the physical and mental extension of human capabilities). The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globally. The rise of water as an economic asset. The decline of manufacturing in the U.S. (4-8% by 2015). The rise of Internet shoping (50% of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018). The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing). Economic instability with the drop in value of the U.S. dollar, trade deficit, fallout from the sub prime-mortgage crisis, etc. So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change, where is it all headed? Some say we are headed for ‘the Singularity.’ The Singularity Statistician I. J. Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that was coming. Later, Verner Vinge coined the term ‘Singularity’ to describe an event that would result in massive social changes following this intelligence explosion. Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe a coming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines. At the same time, a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring. Nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science are converging in what is commonly referred to as the ‘NBIC Convergence.’ The National Science Foundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance (http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/).
As intelligence rises and converges, the result is staggering and exponential increases in change, volatility (variation), and complexity. Entire industries are converging or being eliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common. In addition, the power of these convergent solutions is staggering. As an example, Israel created a biological computer chip that is 100,000 times more powerful than existing chips. Figure 1.10 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science alongside of rising change, volatility, and complexity. This is the ‘big picture view’ of the events that are unfolding in our world. Figure 1.10 – The Rise to Singularity
Image Source: HyperAdvance http://www.hyperadvance.com/singularity.htm
Surprise! But the nature of exponential growth, which we’ve demonstrated over and over again in earlier examples, is a doubling—A doubling of change, volatility, and complexity. This doubling has an effect of surprising its unwary victims. Especially when that doubling includes convergence. As a general rule, communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change they experienced last year will be about equal or less than last year, but that is an incorrect assumption. The fact is that they should expect more change… a lot more!
The forces of change, volatility, and complexity are extremely disconcerting. And if we then consider that, as a general rule, society doesn’t see it coming; we have even more reason for concern. People are basically trying to make decisions, lead, manage, conduct business etc. in traditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an often baffling way. They do the same things they always did, but now it includes an onslaught of business failures, new forms of competition, conflicts, economic woes, etc. as change, volatility, and complexity weigh down social systems. In a world of doubling change, a conservative approach is no longer ‘safe,’ it is falling behind. Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likely won’t exist in 20 years. In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming it. Quality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management, Six Sigma, Kaiizen, etc. were good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose, but they gave many enterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing. Transformation Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm. Transformation is a completely new paradigm. An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal. What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that help them to transform themselves on demand. Futuring extends traditional capabilities of the community or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a 'Xenomorph.'
By definition, a “xenomorph” is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respond to a perceived trauma event, an opportunity for gain, or change of conditional feature sets within an environment. In that sense, an entity possessing this attribute could be viewed as a near real-time “adapter engine.” ‘Reconstructing yourself on demand’ might seem simple enough, but there is an entire discipline behind it and it’s not just about forecasting. It’s about: 1. Forecasting, weak signal identification and trend analysis 2. Transformational leadership 3. More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting 4. Long-range visioning and strategy 5. Master capacity building in communities 6. Systemic enterprise performance 7. Transformative change, adaptability, agility, and disruptive innovation 8. Performance and change enablers 9. Transforming culture 10. Improving life. Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items.
Futuring is an emerging discipline that has come into existence because society is changing radically at all levels and with increasing speed, variability, and complexity. Communities and all types of enterprises are beginning to feel the crushing weight of exponential change. We find an example of this change within technology, where Moore’s law accurately predicted that the number of transistors on a chip will double approximately every two years. Figure 1.1 shows that progression in the capabilities of Intel computer chips.
Figure 1.1
Image Source: Intel.com Website: http://www.intel.com/technology/mooreslaw/index.htm
But this level of change is not limited to technological change. There are simultaneous revolutions in many categories simultaneously. These include: Technology Information / Communication / Connectivity / Privacy Environment / Biodiversity Medical / Heath Military / Security Economy Culture / Values Politics Energy Demographic Business Education Immigration If the change was in any one area, it might be manageable using traditional approaches. But again, simultaneous changes are pushing the limits of all social systems. Next we will look at exponential change in several different areas. The mother of these is a multi-dimensional revolution. The Internet is not just a technological change—It also represents a revolution in the connectedness of our culture, the ubiquitous presence of information, the way we communicate, and threats to our privacy. Figure 1.2 shows the exponential growth of Internet Users.
Figure 1.2
As the ‘global village’ becomes more and more interconnected, national boundaries blur, political systems become more and more virtual, electronic nations emerge, positive and negative news is instantaneous, and the fundamental nature of business is radically changed. One weak signal of the impact of these changes can be found in the realm of politics. Ron Paul, republican presidential candidate raised $4.3 million on November 5, 2007. This was the larges single day of fundraising by any Republican candidate and the largest single day amount for any candidate in U.S. history. Shortly thereafter he beat his own record by raising $6.3 million in one day. The bulk of this money came from online contributions and online supporters instead of traditional media exposure.
As another example, the impact of the Internet is also radically transforming communications. Figure 1.3 shows the 668% growth of major Internet services. These services are transforming the way we collaborate, search for information, receive entertainment, and do business. Figure 1.3
Image Source: Alexa.com
The environment is another area of massive changes. Figure 1.4 shows the percentage of species threatened by extinction. Figure 1.4
Image Source: Nature Journal http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v405/n6783/full/405234a0.html
A direct correlation has been made between reduced biodiversity and increased poverty levels. In addition, the collapse of certain species could spell doom for the ecosystem of our planet. And then there is global warming. There are clear indicators that the earth is warming, though the regularity of such cycles is being hotly debated. Figure 1.5 shows the trends in temperature anomalies as recorded by climatological agencies. Figure 1.6 then, shows the exponential increase in carbon emissions that some scientists attribute to warming of the earth. Figure 1.5
Figure 1.6
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
If global warming is a reality, regardless of the cause, or frequency of warming cycles, sea levels are projected to rise substantially. Figure 1.7 shows the projected rise of sea level. A rise of just a few inches could threaten coastal cities globally. It is important to note that much of the population of the earth dwell in coastal cities that would be inundated. Figure 1.7
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
One of the most crushing exponential trends is the rapidly escalating population of the world. The U.N. estimates shown in Figure 1.8 indicate a potential population explosion between 2010 and 2050 with a leveling off after that at approximately 10 billion people. Figure 1.8
Images source: Global Warming Art http://www.globalwarmingart.com/
This rapid rise in population is creating world mega-cities and is straining social systems of various countries. Which leads us to the 400 pound gorilla of global change—China. The impact of the growth of the China is converging on several trend areas. China now has 8 out of 10 of the most polluted cities in the world. Smog from China is so dense, that it is crossing the Pacific ocean and at times reaches Los Angeles.
Image source: China Environmental News Digest http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v405/n6783/full/405234a0.html
Pollution-related issues and concerns are causing political instability within the region. In addition, China is consuming a larger and large percentage of world resources. Figure 1.9 shows these percentages. Figure 1.9 – China’s share of world consumption of materials
Image Source: Address to Australian Business Economists http://www.treasury.gov.au/documents/1112/HTML/docshell.asp?URL=Australian_Business_Economists.htm
The Rise of an Integral Culture All of these threats and risks are fundamentally changing the values of the American people. According to the results of a social survey detailed in the book, The Cultural Creatives: How 50 Million People Are Changing the World, Paul H. Ray (author) and Sherry Ruth Anderson contend that America society has reached a tipping point and is moving away from a technocratic society toward an integral culture. According to Ray, these individuals have an entirely new world view or perception of what is real. Ray calls the people who are advancing this new worldview “Cultural Creatives.” They are now 50 million strong, or about one quarter of the United States population.
Cultural Creatives Excerpt from: The Rise of Integral Culture, By Paul H. Ray, NOETIC SCIENCES REVIEW # 37, PAGE 04, SPRING 1996 Compared to the rest of society, the bearers of Integral Culture have values that are more idealistic and spiritual, have more concern for relationships and psychological development, are more environmentally concerned, and are more open to creating a positive future. According to my research, this group comprises about 24 percent of the adults in the US, or about 44 million people. If indeed an Integral Culture is emerging, we are experiencing a very unusual time in history-for change in the dominant cultural pattern happens only once or twice a millennium. There are three different streams of cultural meanings and worldviews that lead to what we can measure at this point in time: Traditional, Modern, and Transmodern. (See Chart Below) Each gives rise to presentday observations of three different subcultures of values. I have called the bearers of these subcultures of values Heartlanders, Modernists, and Cultural Creative.
Because values are at the core of society, this shift represents a fundamental change in how we will approach our world in the future. From a marketing perspective, futurist Faith Popcorn, futurist and New York Times best-selling author of The Popcorn Report, describes 16 trends shaping future American consumer behaviors that are very much reflective of the overarching cultural shift described by Paul Ray. Faith Popcorn – 16 Trends 1. Cocooning: People stay at home, building safe harbors that afford protection against the uncertain even dangerous - outside world. The "country living" style of home furnishings is a case in point of products designed to tap directly into the cocooning trend. 2. Clanning: We're staying at home but still want to connect with other, like-minded souls. How? Internet chat rooms are one way we "clan" but still cocoon. 3. Fantasy adventure: The operative concept is "risk free," as we seek breaks from ruts through (safe) travel, new foods and possibly virtual reality. 4. Pleasure revenge: "This is 'Screw it, I'm wearing my mink coat,'" says Popcorn - nd more broadly, pleasure revenge means consumers are tired of the rules that restrain us and are enjoying forbidden pleasures. "Smoking is another pleasure revenge," says Popcorn. 5. Small indulgences: Even if we can't afford a Porsche, maybe we can afford a Porsche watch. Stressed-out consumers are rewarding themselves with countless little, affordable treats - from good cigars to Godiva chocolates. 6. Anchoring: Anchoring is the search for spiritual roots and meanings. 7. Egonomics: Rebelling against uniformity and sterility, we seek to stamp an "I" wherever we go as a quest for individuality becomes a major trend. 8. FemaleThink: A big shift away from traditional, goal-oriented models to "the more caring and sharing, familial ones," says Popcorn. 9. Mancipation: Popcorn calls it "a NewThink for men," and it means men will break out of strictly business ruts into more individual freedoms 10. Cashing out: Employees are jumping out of conventional careers and into more fulfilling, simpler ways of life, often in the countryside. 11. Being alive: "Wellness" as a concept continues to mushroom, and healthy living is a dominant philosophy. 12. Down-aging: Nostalgia for a childhood past: "When we eat Oreos, this is down-aging," says Popcorn. 13. Vigilante consumers: The business that messes with its customers can expect to pay a price, as consumers organize boycotts and go on the attack. 14. Icon toppling: If it's big, established and traditional, it's in trouble as we join in overturning all the pillars of society. 15. SOS: "Save Our Society." A growing sense of living on an endangered planet is spawning a new environmental consciousness, new ethics and a new compassion. Source: Trend spotting: futurist reveals 16 forces shaping America - interview with Faith Popcorn – Interview, Entrepreneur, Dec, 1996 by Robert McGarvey, COPYRIGHT 1996 Entrepreneur Media, Inc., COPYRIGHT 2004 Gale Group http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0DTI/is_n13_v24/ai_19021526/pg_1
And business itself is changing. The book It's Alive, by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis includes some compelling statistics of this exponential nature of change and volatility within business.
Statistics from the Book, “It’s Alive”
Accelerated Change
•
The number of Fortune 300 CEOs with six years' tenure in that role has decreased from 57 percent in 1980 to 38 percent in 2001.
•
In 1991, the number of new household, health, beauty, food, and beverage products totaled 15,400. In 2001, that number had more than doubled to a record 32,025.
•
From 1972 to 1987, the U.S. government deleted 50 industries from its standard industrial classification. From 1987 to 1997, it deleted 500. At the same time, the government added or redefined 200 industries from 1972 to 1987, and almost 1,000 from 1987 to 1997.
•
In 1978, about 10,000 firms were failing annually, and this number had been stable since 1950.
•
By1986, 60,000 firms were failing annually, and by 1998 that number had risen to roughly 73,000.
Increased Volatility
•
From 1950 to 2000, variability in S&P 500 stock prices increased more than tenfold. Through the decades of the 1950s, 1960s, and 1970s, days on which the market fluctuated by three percent or more were rare -- it happened less than twice a year. For the past two years it happened almost twice a month (Figure 1-3).
•
The number of firms that take "special items" in their accounting has grown dramatically. The number of S&P 500 firms declaring "special losses" has grown from 68 in 1982 to 233 in 2000. Special items are, by definition, an admission of being caught flat-footed by change more volatile than the normal course of the business cycle. We need to stress that our argument here contains two distinct points. The first is that change has accelerated. That means whatever trend you look at will be proceeding more rapidly. Volatility is the degree of variability around a given trend. Our second point is that volatile events are of greater magnitude and occur more frequently. These reinforce each other, but they're not the same thing. Source: It’s Alive, by Christopher Meyer and Stan Davis
More Trends These are just a few examples of the megatrends, trends, and weak signals that are impacting our world, our communities, and our enterprises. To say the world is changing is a gross understatement. The world is squarely in the middle of a revolution and the people in it are the revolutionaries.
It’s actually very difficult to find a corner of this world that is not changing. Consider also: The rise of alternative energy because of issues related to carbon emissions Rumors of peak oil, the escalating price of oil, and the rise of oil nations that are either unfriendly or hostile toward the U.S. The green revolution. The mass-retirement of the baby boomer generation alongside of increasing numbers of youth in the U.S. This will strain social security, Medicaid, and other social aid programs; create workforce shortages, and strain the U.S. economy. Global increases in immigration/emigration and cultural fallout and conflicts that result. Growing threats to personal privacy brought on by increasingly ubiquitous technology. The rise of the undeveloped world is redistributing legitimacy and power to some nations hostile to U.S. interests. The rise of global terrorism and new types of military machines emerging to combat it. The proliferation of nuclear technology among undeveloped nations. A potential nuclear Iran. The growing need for health care reform and the centralization of health care information. The rise of environmentalist groups as a political force. There are over 200 million such groups globally. Increasing scientific moral issues stemming from, e.g., stem cell research, cloning, animal / human hybrid cells, genetic research, artificial intelligence, or transhumanism (the physical and mental extension of human capabilities). The rise of unknown or resilient strains of diseases globally. The rise of water as an economic asset. The decline of manufacturing in the U.S. (4-8% by 2015). The rise of Internet shoping (50% of goods will be purchased over the Internet by 2018). The rise of $30 trillion molecular economy (nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing). Economic instability with the drop in value of the U.S. dollar, trade deficit, fallout from the sub prime-mortgage crisis, etc. So now that we have fully established globally pervasive change, where is it all headed? Some say we are headed for ‘the Singularity.’ The Singularity Statistician I. J. Good was the first person to write about an intelligence explosion that was coming. Later, Verner Vinge coined the term ‘Singularity’ to describe an event that would result in massive social changes following this intelligence explosion. Since then Singularity has become a term that is commonly used to generally describe a coming paradigm shift that is most often associated with the rise of super intelligent machines. At the same time, a convergence of intellectual disciplines is occurring. Nanotechnology and molecular manufacturing, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science are converging in what is commonly referred to as the ‘NBIC Convergence.’ The National Science Foundation published a report on Converging Technologies in Human Performance (http://www.wtec.org/ConvergingTechnologies/).
As intelligence rises and converges, the result is staggering and exponential increases in change, volatility (variation), and complexity. Entire industries are converging or being eliminated and interdisciplinary work is more common. In addition, the power of these convergent solutions is staggering. As an example, Israel created a biological computer chip that is 100,000 times more powerful than existing chips. Figure 1.10 shows this escalation and simultaneous convergence of nanotechnology, biotechnology, information technology, and cognitive science alongside of rising change, volatility, and complexity. This is the ‘big picture view’ of the events that are unfolding in our world. Figure 1.10 – The Rise to Singularity
Image Source: HyperAdvance http://www.hyperadvance.com/singularity.htm
Surprise! But the nature of exponential growth, which we’ve demonstrated over and over again in earlier examples, is a doubling—A doubling of change, volatility, and complexity. This doubling has an effect of surprising its unwary victims. Especially when that doubling includes convergence. As a general rule, communities and enterprises tend to assume that the amount of change they experienced last year will be about equal or less than last year, but that is an incorrect assumption. The fact is that they should expect more change… a lot more!
The forces of change, volatility, and complexity are extremely disconcerting. And if we then consider that, as a general rule, society doesn’t see it coming; we have even more reason for concern. People are basically trying to make decisions, lead, manage, conduct business etc. in traditional manner using traditional methods and find that efforts are frustrated in an often baffling way. They do the same things they always did, but now it includes an onslaught of business failures, new forms of competition, conflicts, economic woes, etc. as change, volatility, and complexity weigh down social systems. In a world of doubling change, a conservative approach is no longer ‘safe,’ it is falling behind. Communities and enterprises that take the safe road likely won’t exist in 20 years. In most instances they are trying to reform the existing system instead of transforming it. Quality improvement methodologies like Total Quality Management, Six Sigma, Kaiizen, etc. were good tools in their day and do still serve a narrow purpose, but they gave many enterprises the concept that incremental change is always a good thing. Transformation Reformation is a change to the existing paradigm. Transformation is a completely new paradigm. An enterprise is chartered for the execution or implementation of some goal. What communities and enterprises need is to become adaptive and create capabilities that help them to transform themselves on demand. Futuring extends traditional capabilities of the community or enterprise to make them what futurist Charles Ostman refers to as a 'Xenomorph.'
By definition, a “xenomorph” is an entity which can reconstruct itself to respond to a perceived trauma event, an opportunity for gain, or change of conditional feature sets within an environment. In that sense, an entity possessing this attribute could be viewed as a near real-time “adapter engine.” ‘Reconstructing yourself on demand’ might seem simple enough, but there is an entire discipline behind it and it’s not just about forecasting. It’s about: 1. Forecasting, weak signal identification and trend analysis 2. Transformational leadership 3. More sophisticated future decision-making and policy setting 4. Long-range visioning and strategy 5. Master capacity building in communities 6. Systemic enterprise performance 7. Transformative change, adaptability, agility, and disruptive innovation 8. Performance and change enablers 9. Transforming culture 10. Improving life. Part II will introduce you to a new set of tools around these ten items.
