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NATIO NA L S ECUR ITY / S TR ATEG IC S TUD IES

The Department of Defense (DOD) has been examining strategic trends, their defense relevance, how they may overlap to produce strategic “shocks”—such as the launch of Sputnik and the fall of the Berlin Wall—and how the United States might prepare for such events to mitigate risks and capitalize on opportunities. In Fighting Chance, distinguished scholars from a broad range of backgrounds work from the premise of six trend categories identified by DOD: conflict; demographics; economy; environment; culture, identity, and governance; and science and technology. Another group of regional experts considers these six trend categories in the context of their respective regions: Africa, China, Europe and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization, Russia and Eurasia, South Asia, and Latin America. Looking insightfully at broad trends, Fighting Chance goes well beyond the obvious dangers they might pose in order to warn of future perils—and to suggest opportunities.

Advance Praise for Fighting Chance: Global Trends and Shocks in the National Security Environment Fighting Chance is a premier effort to think about the future in terms that recognize and come to grips with the role of complexity, discontinuity, and surprise in the course of human events as we experience them, not just as theoreticians schematicize them. Here, we find a thorough effort to think about national security in its broadest terms. . . . Fighting Chance illuminates the kind of agenda that our policymaking processes must expect to handle. — LEON FUERTH, Research Professor of International Affairs,The George Washington University This is an extraordinary effort, addressing the impact on effective strategic defense planning of security-relevant trends and wild cards or “shocks” in a systematic and thoughtful manner. It brings together an especially wide range of subject expertise to assess both the global and regional impacts of accelerating change and represents a significant addition to the defense foresight literature. Especially useful are the discussions of complex adaptive systems and the utility of social and cognitive research, leadership development, and educational collaboration in improving strategic foresight. —TIMOTHY C. MACK, President,World Future Society We are in an era of shock and surprise when the unexpected—from 9/11 to Katrina to the global economic downturn—can force a redirection of national attention. This valuable volume should alert all of us to the range of potential sources of strategic surprise that can, individually or in combination, produce fundamental discontinuities in global trends. Being alert can help us be ready. —CASIMIR A.YOST, Georgetown University

Cover designed by Kathleen Dyson. Copyright © 2009 Potomac Books, Inc. Cover photo by Getty Images.

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