From Crisis To Chaos

FROM CRISIS TO CHAOS PAST FOUR MONTHS HAVE BEEN ONE OF THE BEST FOR GLOBAL EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS AND PARTICULAILY FOR INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS.WE ARE ATTEMPTING TO PRESENT THE PICTURE AS WE SEE IT TODAY BASED ON OUR RESEARCH AND TRENDS FORECASTING MODELS. USA – THE ROOT CAUSE OF GLOBAL CRISIS ELECTION OF BARAK OBAMA GAVE THE WORLD A GREAT HOPE AND HIS SLOGAN OF CHANGE WE BELIEVE IN WOULD AND WILL TRANSFORM AMERICAN ECONOMY AND THUS HELP THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC REVIVAL. BUT AFTER SIX MONTHS IN OFFICE IT APPEARS THAT THE REAL BENEFITS ARE BEING CORNORED BY THE WALL STREET AND THE MAIN STREET AMARICANS ARE WORSE OFF THANTHEY WERE IN 2008. UNEMPLOYMENT OFFICALLY IS 9.5% BUT IN REALITY IS ABOVE 16%, ECONOMY IS COLLAPSING AND NO SIGN OF REVIVAL ARE SEEN. ONE SECTOR AFTER ANOTHER IS JUST COLLAPSING BE IT HOUSING, AUTO, BANKING AMONG OTHERS. THE GREAT HOPE IS TURNING INTO GREAT DISASTER AS ECONOMY COLLAPSES, GENERAL POPULATION MISERIES MOUNT AND US $ THE RESERVE CURRENCY OF THE WORLD COMES UNDER INCREASED PRESSURE AS AMERICA CONTINUES TO PRINT DOLLARS WITHOUT ANY CORRESPONDING BACKING. CHINA - A PRIME REASON FOR GLOBAL LOW INFLATION FOR PAST 20 YEARSLEADING TO GLOBAL EQUITY MARKET OVER VALUATION IT IS VERY IMPORTANT TO UNDERSTAND THE ROLE OF CHINA IN THE VERY LOW GLOBAL INFLATION THAT RESULTED IN OVER VALUATION OF EQUITIES IN USA AND WORLD FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS. THIS WAS DUE TO THE PECULIAR ECONOMIC ACTIVITY THAT CHINA PURSUED FOR THE PAST 20 YEARS WHICH HAS LED TO ITS FINANCIAL RESOURCES BEING DIVERTED TO FIXED ASSET FORMATION AND EXPORTS RATHER THAN DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION.THIS WAS RESULT OF CHINA’S MOVE TOWARDS MARKET ECONOMY DESPITE A COMMAND ECONOMY BANKING SYSTEM. THIS MODEL OF ECONOMIC GROWTH LED TO SUPPLY OF GOODS FAR IN EXCESS OF DEMAND AND THIS OVER SUPPLY SITUATION LED TO DISINFLATION FOR PAST TWO DECADES IN THE GLOBAL ECONOMY.THIS LOW INLFATION PRODUCED THE MOST STARTELING RALLY IN GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS LEADING TO EXTREME OVER VALUATION OF US EQUITY MARKETS AND OTHER GLOBAL MARKETS.. JUST FOR THE PAST TWO YEARS WHEN CHINA STARTED CONSUMING MORE AND MORE RESOURCES FAR INEXCESS OF SUPPLY TO MAINTAIN ITS ECONOMIC MOMENTUM INFLATION REARED ITS HEAD IN 2007 AND 2008 WHICH LED TO A SHARP CORRECTION IN GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS. THE WORLD TRIED TO EMULATE CHINA AND THIS RESULTED IN HUGE OVER CAPACITY BUILT UP ON THE BASIS OF FUTURE DEMAND. BUT WITH DEMAND

COLLAPSING DUE TO GLOBAL DELEVERAGING AND RISK AVERSNESS IT HAS RESULTED IN IDLE CAPACITIES, HUGE UNEMPLOYMENT AND THE BIGGEST FINANCIAL CRISIS THE WORLD HAS EVER SEEN RESOLUTION TO WHICH IS NOT TO BE FOUND TILL DATE. HUGE WALL OF US$ THROWN AT THE CRISIS BUT STILL NO RECOVERY SEEN DESPITE MORE THAN US$ 10 TRILLION + HAVING BEEN PUMPED TO REINFLATE GLOBAL ECONOMY IT APPEARS THAT ALL THIS IS JUST GONE IN VAIN. IT IS BEING PROPOSED THAT USA SHOULD COME OUT WITH SECOND STIMULUS CONFIRMING THAT USA’S PROBLEMS HAVE MULTIPLIED OVER PAST MANY MONTHS. ALSO EFFORTS BY USA TO INDUCE ITS POPULATION TO RESTART SPENDING ARE FALLING ON DEAF EARS. USA HAVING MADE A HUGE MISTAKE ONCE IS REPEATING THIS MISTAKE AGAIN. SAVING RATE THAT WAS -5% IN USA HAS CLIMBED TO ALMOST 7% IMPLYING SPENDING AVERSNESS. PREDICTIONS FROM PEOPLE WHO HAVE NO IDEA OF WHAT HAS HIT THE GLOBAL ECONOMY DESPITE CRISIS AFTER CRISIS WE HEAR FROM WALL STREET AND THE SO CALL GUARDIANS OF AMERICAN ECOMONY THAT A REVIVAL IS ON THE HORIZON AND GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL TURN SOON. IT IS ALMOST 27 MONTHS THAT AMERICA IS IN RECESSION. NONE OF THESE SO CALLED EXPERTS COULD EVEN SEE THE CRISIS, FORGET ABOUT FORCASTING THE CRISIS COMING IN 2007 AND 2008. HOW AND WHAT MAKES THEM QUALIFIED TO MAKE THIS KIND OF PROGNOSIS, IS NOTHING BUT A CRUEL JOKE. THE TALK OF REVIVAL IS JUST PEP TALK AND NO SUBSTANTIATIVE DATA PROVIDED AS A PROOF OF THE SAME. BUT THE TRUTH IS JUST OPPOSITE OF WHAT IS BEING PRONOUNCED. EUROPE AND JAPAN ARE IN DEEPER PROBLEMS THAN USA AND AS OF NOW THEY ARE NOT EVEN WORTH A MENTION OF REVIVAL. INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS TURN EUPHORIC POST ELECTION RESULTS INDIAN EQUITY MARKET BSE SENSEX HAD MORE THAN DOUBLED FROM ITS LOWS MADE IN SEPTEMBER 08(7697) TO REACH A HIGH OF 15600+. THIS SORT OF OUTPERFORMANCE WAS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY OVER OPTIMISM THAT GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL RECOVER SOON AND THE INDIAN ELECTION RESULTS THAT GAVE ABSOLUTE MAJORITY TO THE REFORMIST CONGRESS LED COALITION WILL TURN OUT REFORMS AND TRANSFORM INDIA.

WAS INDIA THE ONLY EMERGING MARKET TO GAIN? NO, EVERY EMERGING MARKET GAINED BE IT RUSSIA, BRAZIL, CHINA, AND INDONESIA AMONG OTHERS. THE EUPHORIA IN INDIA WAS JOLTED AND REALITY DAWNED ON INDIAN EQUITY MARKET AS THE BUDGET WAS ANNOUNCED ON 6th JULY. THE BUDGET AND REALITY AFTER THAT OVER OPTIMISM CUM EUPHORIC REHOTIC WERE TOTALLY SUBDUED AFTER HEARING THE FINACE MINISTER. A SHARP CORRECTION HAS FOLLOWED THAT DAY WITH FIIS SELLING MORE THAN RS.4000 CRORE IN CASH SEGMENT IN JUST FIVE DAYS ENDING JULY 10. THE BUDGET IS EXTREMELY OVER OPTIMISTIC ON GROWTH PROJECTIONS OF GDP AND ITS REVENUE COLLECTIONS. ALSO THE THRUST ON SPENDING SEEMS TO BE TO APPEASE THE VOTERS IN RURAL INDIA. HUGE ALLOCATIONS FOR RURAL INDIA WITH EMPHASIS ON INDUCING RURAL SPENDING WILL ONLY DRIVE UP INFLATION. THE BUDGETED FISCAL DEFICIT OF 6.8% WILL SURELY EXCEED 7.3% AND WILL PROBALY END UP 7.5%. THIS IS BOUND TO BE EXTREMELY INFLATONARY. THE GOVERNMENT BORRWING PROGRAM OF MORE THAN RS.4,00,000 CRORE I.E 4 TIMES OF LAST YEAR (TRANSALTING INTO RS.11,000 CRORE PER WEEK)WILL NOT ONLY CROWD OUT BORROWINGS BUT COULD LEAD TO EXTREMELY LOW AVAILABILITY FOR PRIVATE SECTOR. THIS WILL NEGATUVELY IMPACT PRIVATE CAPITAL FORMATION. WILL IT PUSH UP INTEREST RATES IT JUST A FOREGONE CONCLUSION AS CREDIT WILL BECOME SCARCE IN NEXT THREE TO FOUR MONTHS. ALSO THERE EXISTS A POSSIBLITY OF MONETISATION OF THE DEBT. THIS WILL IMPACT INDIAN CURRECNY VALUATION AS IT IS BOUND TO DEPRECIATE FURTHER. A BIGGER CRISIS AWAITS INDIA – MONSOON FAILURE ALL THESE WERE NOT ENOUGH INDIA FACES ITS GRIMMEST REALITY OF A FAILURE OF ITS MONSOON. WE HAVE BEEN TELLING OUR CLIENTS SINCE PAST SIX TO SEVEN WEEKS THAT EL NINO WILL STRIKE INDIA AND IT WILL LEAD TO A VERY WEAK MONSOON. OFFCIALS WHO PRONOUNED IN MAY THAT INDIA WILL HAVE A NORMAL MONSOON ARE LIVING IN THEIR OWN WORLD THAT IS FAR FROM REALITY. OFFICAL EL NINO SITES IN USA AND OTHER COUNTRIES HAVE FORCASTED VERY BAD MONSOON PICTURE FOR INDIAN.

EXTREMELY LOW WATER RESOVIOR LEVELS WATER CUTS ALL OVER INDIA AND FURTHERING OF THESE MEASURES WITH EXTREMELY LOW LEVELS AT WATER RESOVIORS ARE NOT ONLY CONFIRMATION BUT ALSO A REALITY CHECK OF THE WEAK PROGRESS OF MONSOON. FOOD BOWL OF INDIA SUCH AS PUNJAB, HARYANA, RAJASTHAN AND UTTER PRADESH RECEIVING ONLY 10% RAINFALL ARE EXTREMELY GRIM DATA THAT NO ONE CAN DENY. DATA SHOWING CRISIS BUILDING UP TWO THINGS ARE FOR REAL, OUT OF THAT ONE CERTAIN THAT PROGRESS OF INDIAN MONSOON IS VERY WEAK. SECOND THAT THERE IS MORE THAN 70% CHANCE THAT INDIAN MONSOON WILL FAIL. DATA FROM ALL OVER INDIA SHOWS SOME SHOWERS HERE AND THERE, WHICH IS CONFIRMATION OF A WEAK MONSOON AND NOT REVIVAL AS PAINTED BY MANY. AS DATA PREDICTS WEAK MONSOON AND A PARTIAL FAILURE, THIS WILL CERTAINLY PUT MUCH PRESSURE ON THE PRECARIOUS PUBLIC FINANCES AND LEAD TO HIGHER FISCAL DEFICIT. IF INDIA HAS A MONSOON FAILURE THE CRISIS COULD GET MAGNIFIED BEYOND REPAIR AND THE CONSEQUENCES THERE AFTER WILL BE HIGHLY DAMAGING. ALSO RURAL SPENDING THE BACKBONE OF INDIAN’S ECONOMIC GROWTH FOR PAST MANY YEARS COULD WEAKEN IN IMMEDIATE FUTURE. THIS COULD THROW TO WIND ALL PROJECTIONS OF 7%+ GDP GROWTH. IIP DATA SHOWS MANUFACTURING FALLING STEADILY- IS IT DEFLATION INDIAN IIP NUMBERS HAVE BEEN REASONABLY BAD FOR PAST MANY MONTHS. DATA FOR PAST TWO MONTHS POINTS AT SOME REVIVAL OF INDUSTRIAL ACTIVITY BUT THIS WAS EVIDENT FROM THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE ON VARIOUS INDUSTRIAL SEGEMENTS SUCH AS CEMENT, TWO AND FOUR WHEELERS, FMCG AMONG OTHERS. AGAIN WE HAVE OFFICIALS PROCLAMING REVIVAL OF INDUTRIAL ACTIVITY. BUT IN REALITY IT IS DEFLATION TAKING CONCRETE SHAPE IN INDIA AS MANUFACTURING THE MAIN COMPONENT OF WPI HAS BEEN FALLING FOR ALMOST PAST ONE YEAR. CPI THE REAL PROBLEM – HURTING THE AAM ADAMI THE MOST INFLATION IS IN NEGATIVE ZONE FOR PAST FOUR WEEKS AND THIS HAS PLEASED MANY. BUT THIS IS THE BIGGEST PROBLEM.

IT’S THE CONSUMER PRICE INFLATION (CPI) THAT IS GALLOPING AND RULING ABOVE 12%. IN REALITY INDIAN MASSES ARE FACING THE REAL HEAT ON INFLATION FRONT. IN REALITY ATTE DAL KA BHAVE MALUM PAD GAYE AND THIS IS HIGHLY DANGEROUS WHICH IS BOUND TO BECOME CATASTROPHIC IF MONSOON WEAKENS FURTHER. WHAT RUSSELL NAPIER HAS TO SAY OFGLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008 I WOULD LIKE TO QUOTE MY GURU AND ONE OF THE GREATEST TREND FORECASTER IN THE WORLD RUSSELL NAPIER ABOUT THE FINACIAL CRISIS OF 2008, 2008 WILL NOT BE REMEMBERED AS THE YEAR OF GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS BUT IT WILL BE REMEMBERED AS THE YEAR IN WHICH 42%+ POPULATION OF THE WORLD REALISED THAT THEY CANNOT BECOME RICH BY SELLING GOODS TO JUST 18% OF THE WORLD POPULATION. FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 2008 HAS ITS ROOTS IN THE SPENIDNG BINGE THAT WORLD WENT THROUGH IN PAST 20 YEARS PARTICULARILY USA AND EUROPE BACKED BY EXTREMELY EASY MONEY AVAILABLE ALMOST FREE AT LOWEST INTEREST RATE. (THE ALAN GREEN SPAN ERA) DELEVERAGING GAINING MOMENTUM – LEAD TO FURTHER GLOBAL SLOWDOWN DATA PROVES THAT IT WAS SPENDING AND EXTREMELY HIGH LEVERAGING AIDED BY NO FINANCIAL CONTROLS AND CHECKS THAT RESULTED IN AN EXTREMELY OVER OPTISTIMC SECENRIO FOR GLOBAL ECONOMIC GROWTH. AS THE WORLD DELEVERAGES IT IS BOUND TO SLOW GLOBAL GROWTH. THIS IS MOST LIKELY TO IMPACT EMERGING ECONOMIES THE HARDEST THAT IS WHY CHINA IN RECENT PAST HAS FOCUSED ON INFLATIING DOMESTIC CONSUMPTION WITH ALL GIMMICS OF SUBSIDIES FOR SPENDING. CURRENCY MOVEMENTS AND CURRENT APPRECIATION OF JAPANESE YEN ARE EVIDENCE OF DELEVERAGING HAPPENING AT FAST PACE. GLOBALLY EXPORTS FALLING DRASTICALLY GLOBALLY ALL EXPORTING COUNTRIES BE IT CHINA, JAPAN, SOUTH KOREA, TAIWAN, INDIA AMONG OTHERS HAVE CONSISTENT REPORTED EXPORTS FALL OF 20%+ FOR PAST MANY MONTHS WHICH IS CERTAINLY EXTREMELY CONCERNING PLUS CONFIRMATION OF SHRINKAGE OF GLOBAL ECONOMY. INDIA A UNIQUE ECONOMIC MODEL INDIA HAS THE MOST UNIQUE ECONOMIC MODEL IN THE WORLD, THAT OF INTERNALLY DRIVEN ECONOMIC GROWTH. IT APPEARS TO BE THE BEST PLACED COUNTRY GLOBALLY TO WEATHER THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS. BUT A WEAK

MONSOON AND OVER DEPENDENCE ON RURAL SPENDING COULD WREAK HAVOC ON INDIAN ECONOMY.

MY PAST PREDICITON IN MARCH SECOND WEEK I HAD PREDICTED THAT INDIAN EQUITY MARKETS WOULD SEE EUPHORIC CONDITIONS ONCE THEY CROSS 12380 ON SENSEX AND THIS IS WHAT HAPPENED IN REALITY. OUR TARGET OF 15500- 16500 RANGE WAS ACHIEVED BUT OUR MOST OPTIMISTIC TARGET OF 18500 IS STILL A DREAM. OUR WORRY INDIA NEEDS TO DO ALL THE RIGHT THINGS FROM NOW ON TO JUSTIFY ITS RIGHT PLACE UNDER THE SUN. MY RESEARCH AND TREND FORECASTING MAKES ME A WORRIED PERSON FOR THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. CONSTANTLY PRESUMING THINGS WILL IMPROVE HAS TO BE CONVERTED TO ACTIONS IN REALITY. DENIAL MODE HAS TO GIVE WAY TO ACTION FOR THE WORST CASE SCENERIO. MARKETS THE ULTIMATE INDICATOR MARKETS HAVE THE ABILITY TO READ THE FUTURE MUCH AHEAD OF ACTUAL ECOMOMIC DATA BE IT FOR GOOD OR WORSE. HAS RECENT FALL OF GLOBAL MARKETS ALONG WITH FALL IN INDIAN MARKETS READ AN IMPEDING CRISIS COMING OR IS IT JUST A CORRECTION OF THE UP MOVE OF PAST MANY MONTHS ONLY TIME WILL TELL. BUT THE SIGNS ARE FAR SOMBER AND THE SO CALLED GREEN SHOOTS ARE ALREADY WITHERING AWAY. WORLD NEEDS A MIRACLE BUT PEOPLE HAVE TO IMPLEMENT IT IT IS HIGH TIME FOR ALL THE GLOBAL LEADERS TO RISE UP TO THE CHALLENGES AND FACE REALITY AND DRIVING THE WORLD INTO A SAFER PLACE THAT WILL BE FAR AWAY FROM CRISIS LADEN WORLD OF TODAY. MERE PEP TALK AND FALSE HOPES WILL NOT SUFFICE. CONCRETE ACTION AND OUT OF BOX THINKING IS NEED OF THE HOUR. INDIA HAS/NEEDS TO LEAD THE CHARGE TOWARDS CHANGE INDIA HAS TO RISE TO THE OCCASION AND DEMONSTRATE TO THE WORLD THAT IS THE FUTURE YOUTH SUPER POWER IN THE MAKING AND NOT A COUNTRY WHERE ASPIRATIONS OF YOUTH WILL BE SUPRESSED. DEMOGRAPHICS MAKES INDIA THE BEST PLACED ECONOMY FOR NEXT 20-60 YEARS ON TRENDS

FORECASTING MODELS BUT LACK/DENIAL OF RIGHT ENVIORNMENT IS THE LUCUANA THAT NEEDS URGENT ATTENTION AND CORRECTION. HARRY S DENT JR – THE GREATEST FORECASTER ON INDIA’S FUTURE I WOULD LIKE TO END WITH A PREDICTION FROM MY OTHER GURU HARRY S DENT JR WHO PREDICTS THAT INDIA IS THE ECONOMIC SUPER POWER OF FUTURE PARTICULARLY FROM 2018 ONWARDS. BUT HE HAS PUT A CAVET AND THAT IS THE EDUCATION, PUBLIC HEALTH CUM SANITATION FACILITIES HAVE TO IMPROVE DRASTICALLY FROM TODAY’S LEVEL FOR INDIA TO ACHIEVE GREATNESS. MY HOPE AND WISH BUT IMMEDIATE CHALLENGES I HOPE FOR BETTER INDIA OF TOMORROW BUT PRESENT IS CERTANLY CLOUDED AND THE EVENTS OF IMMEDIATE PAST PLUS PREDICTIONS OF IMMEDATE FUTURE LEAVE ME A WORRIED PERSON. AS PRESENTLY ECONOMY AND MARKETS ARE IN EYE OF THE STORM THAT IS GAINING MOMENTUM. WHAT WILL MAKE MY PREDICTIONS GO WRONG THE ABOVE PREDICTION FOR INDIA COULD TURN POSITIVE IF MONSOON TURNS FAVOURABLE AND RECOUPS ITS DEFICIT (THOUGH ITS APPEARS HIGHLY UNLIKELY TODAY). ALSO INDIAN GOVERNMENT ACTS TO FURTHER REFORMS PROCESS THAT FAVOUR BROADER POPULATION AND EQUITY MARKETS. INDIA AND CHINA A COMPARION OF UNEQUALS INDIA IS OFTEN COMPARED TO CHINA BUT IN REALITY CHINA AT PRESENT IS HUGELY AHEAD OF INDIA. INDIA WILL REQUIRE MORE THAN HERCULAIN EFFORT TO ACHIEVE WHAT CHINA IS TODAY LEAVE ALONE OVERTAKING CHINA. INDIA HAS ADVANTAGE OF DEMOCRACY COMPARED TO CHINA. BUT CHALLENGES NEEDS FIRM RESOLVE AND RESOLUTION WHERE INDIA APPEARS TO BE FALLING BEHIND. ONCE I WAS TOLD BY A VERY LEARNED PERSON THAT DEMOCRACY IS A VERY COSTLY HABIT LET US SEE THAT THIS DOES NOT BECOME AN IMPEDIAMENT IN INDIA’S PROGRESS. COMPLACANCY ON ECONOMIC EFFORTS, REFORMS, WASTEFUL EXPENDITURE, UNREALISTIC SUBSIDIES AND ALINEATION OF GENERAL POPULATION FROM EDUCATION, HEALTH AND SANITATION BENEFITS ARE JUST SOME CHALLAGES THAT INDIA WILL HAVE TO OVER COME FIRST. INDEX PREDICTION GLOBAL MARKETS RALLY APPERS TO BE PETERING OUT. THE EUPHORIA TOWARDS GLOBAL REVIVAL AND RECOVERY APPEARS TO BE STALLING. MAJOR INDUSTRALISED NATIONS ARE BEGINNING TO SEE NEWER PROBLEMS WITH OLDER ONES STILL SHOWING NO SIGNS OF SOLUTIONS.

WE EXPECT MARKETS TO BE SUBDUED IN THE IMMEDIATE FUTURE. WE EXPECT THE CURRENT CORRECTION TO CONTINUE UP TO 12500-12650 AND MARKETS TO REVIVE/CONSOLIDATE FROM THIS LEVEL. THE RALLY THAT STRARTED IN SEPTMEBER 2008 HAS GONE ON FOR ALMOST 9 MONTHS AND WE MAINTAIN THAT THIS RALLY WILL LAST FOR 12 TO 18 MONTHS FROM SEPTEMBER 2008. IMMEDIATE INDEX VIEW IF WE BREAK 12380 DECISIVELY THAN WE CAN FALL FURTHER UP TO 10000-10500. IF MONSOON WERE TO FAIL AND GLOBAL ECONOMIC CONDITIONS REMAIN CHALLENGING TESTING LOWS OF SEPTEMBER 2008 OF 7697 OR AROUND 8000 IS NOT RULED OUT. AS OF NOW 15500 - 16500 IS OUR IMMEDIATE TOP BUT WE STILL MAINTAIN 18500 AS OUR MOST OPTIMISTIC TARGET FOR PERIOD FROM MARCH TO JUNE 2010. FROM CRISIS TO CHAOS THE ECONOMIC CUM FINANCAIL CRISIS GLOBALLY IS SHOWING NO SIGN OF RESOULTION. THE MEDICINES THAT HAS BEEN PRESCRIBED SEEMS TO BE NOT WORKING AND THAT IS CONCERNING. FOR INDIA ITS COULD BE A DOUBBLE WHAMMY IF MONSOON CONTINUES TO PLAY A TRAUNT. IT COULD BE THE CASE OF INDIA MOVING FROM A CRISIS SITUATION TO A CHOATIC SITUATION. FOR REFERANCE WE ARE REPETING OUR PREDICTIONS MADE IN 2ND WEEK MARCH 2009. GLOBAL MARKETS ARE IN A RALLY MODE AND ONCE THE MORE THAN 10TRILLION DOLARS THAT HAVE BEEN PUMPED IN BY US.EU AND OTHER CENTRAL BANKS THE RALLY WILL BECOME VICIOUS. THE RALLY WILL HAVE ALL SYMPTOMS OF BULL MKT RALLY AS IT WILL COINCIDE WITH ECONOMIC REVIVAL. THE RALLY SHOULD LAST FOR NEXT 12-18 MONTHS WITH SHARP CORRECTIONS. THE MOST OPTISMISTIC TARGET WILL BE BSE SENSEX 18500, THE REALSITIC TARGET IS 15500 TO 16500 AND THE BASE TARGET IS 12380. AFTER WE BREACH 12380 WE WILL SEE EUPHORIC LIKE CONDITONS AGAIN. THE RALLY SHOULD END BY AT BEST OCTOBER 2010 EARLIEST BY JUNE 2010. THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH ECONOMIC COLLAPS OF EUROPE AND USA.

DEPRESSION WILL BEGIN IN 2010 IN THE RIGHT EARNEST THAT WILL BLOWOFF GLOBAL ECONOMY AND WILL CONTINUE TILL 2020. IT WILL PEAK AROUND 20142015. GLOBAL ECONOMY WILL SHRINK BY ATLEST 33% FROM WHAT WE ARE TODAY. EQUITY MKTS WILL FALL BY 50% OF WHAT WE ARE TODAY Or 66% FROM PEAK THAT WILL BE FORMED IN JUNE 2010 TO DEC 2010 FOR DEEP UNDERVALUATION TO EMERGE FOR MEANIGFUL INVESTMENT. GLOBAL CATASTROHY HAS JUST BEGUN. WHAT WE HAVE SEEN IN 2008 IS JUST A TRAILER OF THE GREAT DEPRESSION THAT WE ARE ALREADY IN AND THAT SHOULD BECOME FULL BLOWN BY DECEMBER 2010.