Ens Economic Futures Report 2008
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Economic Futures Report For
North Shore City full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices
Incorporating Executive Summary November 2008
Promoting North Shore Economic Development
Foreword This report is designed to assist businesses make important decisions that will impact not only their own organisations’ development but also the growth of the local economy. By forecasting the future demand and supply of skilled labour across multiple industry types, the report also represents a baseline for ongoing economic planning. This data, supported by assessments of labour productivity and residential occupancy, is intended to support the development of business cases for enterprises looking to grow, invest and locate in North Shore City. Enterprise North Shore and Market Economics Ltd would like to thank the businesses and organisations who have contributed to this report by way of completing the Economic Futures Survey.
Terry Hoskins Chief Executive Enterprise North Shore
contents PART ONE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 2031 Future Scenario & Targeted Business Sectors...................................................... 3
1.1 Future Economic Make-up......................................................................................... 4
1.2 Targeted Sectors - Future Performance..................................................................... 5
1.2.1 Selected ratios................................................................................................... 7
2 Key Indicators................................................................................................................... 8
2.1 Employment................................................................................................................ 9
2.2 Economic Output.......................................................................................................10
2.3 Targeted Business Sectors........................................................................................10
3 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................11 4 Next steps........................................................................................................................11 PART TWO - FULL REPORT................................................................................................... 13
Table of Contents
Front cover: Aerial shot of Lake Pupuke, Takapuna, and The Sugar Grab sculpture at Chelsea Sugar.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Executive Summary highlights the local economy’s ability to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to North Shore households through wealth creation and employment opportunities. It forms part of a package of information prepared for Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council and reflects: • A summary of the ‘Future Scenario’ based on a modelled economic future, and • The key indicators of growth in terms of demographics and high-
level economic characteristics of the City. Its aim is to set a baseline for the future and endorse the focus on the targeted business sectors which are clustered around high technology, education, sports, health, and professional business services as key drivers of growth. In order to quantify a likely, optimal future, Enterprise North Shore will continue to work with businesses to define the actual potential inherent in North Shore as a location for these key industry groups, and to address issues or
threats to economic growth. While the resulting data suggests strong growth, it is clear that the ideal future economic environment will not occur without intervention. Enterprise North Shore, in conjunction with North Shore City Council, has a vital role to play in facilitating growth in the targeted sectors and the economy overall, by ensuring investment conditions in North Shore are appropriate and that issues such as access to skilled labour and other key factors of production are addressed.
1 2031 Future Scenario & TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many opportunities, issues and challenges for the City. This report seeks to develop and describe a ‘Future Scenario’ for the North Shore economy as generated by using the Economic Futures Model (EFM). The ‘Future Scenario’ is a projection of the likely nature of the economy (in 2031) based on historic sectoral trends, underlying characteristics and industry dynamics. The modelling work was
augmented with an internet-based survey. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to businesses on the Enterprise North Shore (ENS) mailing list and links to the website were published in the Enterprise magazine. The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights key shifts in the economy in terms of employment, output and value added with a focus on the targeted business sectors. Similarly, future employment requirements have been determined by occupation and sector.
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The strongest growth in percentage terms is projected to occur in high technology-based enterprises, including Marine, ICT, Electronics and Niche Manufacturing.
1.1 Future Economic Make-up Current productive GDP generated within North Shore City is approximately $12.7bn (2006) and is expected to grow by $8.8bn to some $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68% growth in total). The strongest growth in percentage terms is projected to occur in high technology-based enterprises, including Marine, ICT, Electronics and Niche Manufacturing. In terms of actual growth, Business Services will add some $873m in contribution to GDP over the next 25 or so years. Strong contributions are also made by the Wholesale sector ($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m).
Business Services takes the lead from Wholesaling as the largest contributor to GDP in the City (at almost $1.8bn by 2031) as the structure of the economy moves towards a more services-orientated model. This confirms one of the North Shore economy’s defining characteristics, that of being consumption driven. ENS aims to reduce this dependence on consumption-led economic growth by attracting more large businesses to the North Shore and increasing the local employment base. The table reflects the GDP contributions by the top 20 sectors.
CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20), 2006 – 2031
2006 ($’m) 2031 ($’m)
#
Sector
$
Sector
$
1
Wholesale trade
894
Business services
1,756
2
Business services
883
Wholesale trade
1,423
3
Owner-occupied dwellings
843
Owner-occupied dwellings
1,252
4
Retail trade
559
Retail trade
887
5
Communication services
557
Real estate
856
6
Real estate
538
Communication services
836
7
Health & community services 387
Construction
647
8
Construction 340
Health & community services
586
9
Central government 272
Education 427
10
Education 262
Central government 406
11
Insurance 204
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 348
12
Finance
193
Finance 309
13
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
182
Insurance 307
14
Printing, publishing & recorded media
134
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 248
15
Personal & other community services
115
Printing, publishing & recorded media 221
16
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
113
Cultural & recreational services 213
17
Cultural & recreational services
109
Personal & other community services
198
18
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
96
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
192
19
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing 29
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 167
20
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
Services to finance & investment
93
148
1.2 Targeted Sectors Future Performance The targeted business sectors are expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years or so. The table below highlights growth in contribution to GDP made by the targeted business sectors to 2031. These sectors increase their contribution to total value added in North Shore from 26% to almost 28% by 2031. The strongest growth is expected to occur in the High Technology sector with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. Financial and Business Services is projected to grow at 2.4% (these growth rates are in line with survey responses from businesses in these sectors). In total the targeted sectors are expected to be ‘adding value’ of $3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008. In terms of total economic activity the targeted sectors are expected to grow from $3.2bn in Gross Output terms to more than $5.7bn by 2031. As a share of total North Shore activity, the sectors grow from 24.9% to 26.6% by 2031. Employment in the targeted sectors is expected to grow from 23,600 in 2008 to around 36,640 by 2031. The largest sector is Financial and Business Services where growth of more than 7,600 employment opportunities is expected to 2031. In total the targeted sectors are projected to grow (under the ‘Future Scenario’) from 28.3% of North Shore City employment to 28.8% by 2031. While this implies faster growth here than elsewhere in the economy, it is expected to occur at a slower rate than the growth in GDP contribution from targeted sectors (26% - 28%). The relationship between occupation structure and FTEs is not one-to-one as an FTE may be made up of two part-time workers. However, occupation structure provides a robust way of assessing future skills requirements to achieve the economic structure projected under the ‘Future Scenario’ outlook and the following table summarises employment into occupations and indicates growth per occupation in percentage terms as well as the actual numbers.
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Under the ‘Future Scenario’ approximately 127,000 FTEs are forecast to be working on the North Shore by 2031.
VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS (SELECTED YEARS) NZ$’000
2006
High Technology 461,177
2011
2021
2031
521,256
664,254
852,401
Education
54,668
61,136
74,908
89,096
Sports & Perform.
61,592
70,580
92,049
118,654
Financial & Profes.
1,071,232
1,214,177
1,549,351
1,958,799
Health 289,942 319,425 380,140 437,318 Total (Targeted)
1,938,611 2,186,574 2,760,701 3,456,269
North Shore
7,429,000
8,313,000
10,230,000
12,308,000
26.10%
26.30%
26.99%
28.08%
% of North Shore
GROSS OUTPUT – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS (SELECTED YEARS) High Technology Education Sports & Perform. Financial & Profes.
830,880
940,546
1,199,937
1,546,551
67,187
75,116
92,017
109,545
116,642
133,053
173,381 223,542
1,807,717 2,053,666 2,619,925 3,314,878
Health 378,930 417,425 496,948
570,774
Total (Targeted) 3,201,355 3,619,806 4,582,208
5,765,290
North Shore
12,872,000
% of North Shore
14,476,000 17,900,000 21,678,000
24.87%
25.01%
25.60%
26.60%
EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)
2011
2021
High Technology 4,245 4,713
5,790
7,230
1,346
1,501
Education
2006 1,083
1,171
2031
989
1,096
1,333
1,612
12,357
13,663
16,559
19,962
Health 4,928
5,257
5,874
6,333
Sports & Performance Financial & Professional
Total (Targeted) 23,602 25,899 30,902 36,638 North Shore (Total)
83,500
95,424
111,299
127,150
TBAP Share of
28.27%
27.14%
27.77%
28.81%
North Shore
EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION – PROJECTIONS (‘000) Occupation Projections Occupation (in thousands) Growth Occupations 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2006 -2016 -2031 Chief Executives, GMs and Legislators 5.2
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.3
Specialist Managers
11.0
12.0
13.1
14.2
Arts and Media Professionals
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof.
7.1
7.8
8.5
9.2
9.9
10.7
1.0 2.6
15.2 16.3 2.1 0.3
% # 18 3
5.3 20 1 0.7
6 27
1.4 3.6
16 2
5.1
5.6
0.8 2.1 3
6.6
6.9
0.7
1.6 41 10
Health Professionals 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8
0.5
1.1 40 15
ICT Professionals 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.8
0.6
1.8 4
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8
0.4
0.9
19 21
Engin., ICT and Science Tech’s 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4
0.4
1.2
14 14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
0.3
0.7 2 26
Health and Welfare Support
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
Design, Eng., Science & Trans Prof. 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.3
Education Professionals
5.6
6.0
6.3
5
7
0.8
0.1
0.3 30 39
Carers and Aides 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0
0.3
0.8 38 24
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0
0.4
1.0
Sports and Personal Service Workers Total Other Occupations
51.0
55.8
60.5
70.0 74.7
9.5
23.6
Total Employment
87.5
95.6
103.6 111.5 119.4 127.3
16.1
39.8
“
The most significant growth in occupation occurs in Hospitality
65.2
Under the ‘Future Scenario’ approximately 127,000 FTEs are forecast to be working on the North Shore by 2031. This represents growth of some 39,800 from the 2006 position (46% growth). Total occupations in North Shore businesses increase at approximately the same rate (a 47% increase from 101,000 to 148,000). The most significant growth in occupation occurs in Hospitality – in total 68% more are required by 2031 than in 2006. This again points to the consumption base of the North Shore economy and is driven strongly by local population growth and increases in consumption per household and a generally wealthy household base. In terms of percentage growth the next greatest increases are expected in: Electronic Technology and Telecommunications’ workers (63%); Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals (60%); ICT Professionals (59%); and Arts and Media Professionals (58%).
7.8
Ranking Growth
10 18
These are key occupations for the targeted sectors and are required in large numbers in order for the North Shore economy to achieve the projected future. In terms of actual numbers the most growth is required in Specialist Managers, with the economy requiring a further 5,300 by 2031. This is followed by Business and Marketing Professionals (3,620), CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and Design and Engineering professionals (2,080). Should the targeted sectors deliver significant growth, competition for suitably skilled labour will intensify. Significant growth in the Health and Education professions are also anticipated, with an additional 1,150 and 1,620 workers required respectively to meet the growth needs of the City. The ageing of the current workforce, that is potentially uneven across different occupational groups, is likely to intensify the requirements in certain areas (notably in the health professions).
1.2.1 Selected Ratios The value added per FTE is projected to grow for both the targeted sectors and the overall economy, with the targeted sectors’ value added projected to increase by $9,808/FTE (a movement of 11.6%) between 2006 and 2031. The anticipated movements and trends in the individual targeted sectors of the North Shore are summarised in the subsequent table. The relative growth and movements in Financial and Professional, and High Technology sectors revealed the lowest overall growth but from a large base (i.e. these sectors are significantly larger than some of the other sectors - almost 100% larger in some instances). Health is projected to have the largest change in percentage terms. The different sectors’ internal characteristics influence the degree to which the value added per FTE can be developed. This implies that investing in the targeted sectors and encouraging growth in these sectors, will generate more wealth within the economy than focusing on the economy in general.
The importance and dominance of Financial and Professional Services expose the local economy to shocks and external movements in the wider business environment – such as the global economic slowdown caused by the current credit crunch. While the economic modelling incorporated variables to deal with changing demand conditions, the purpose of the modelling was not to predict/forecast the effects on the economy as a result of shocks, such as the credit crunch, or oil price movements, rather to show how the economy responds to alternative future outlooks.
“
North Shore’s population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 by 2026.
Some of the risk associated with the exposure could also be translated into opportunities for some targeted sub-sectors. For example, Advertising Services (L785100) might experience an increase for services as firms aim to increase market exposure and attempt to build on existing branding images in times of constrained demand. These activities have strong linkages with the Commercial Art and Display Services (L785200) sector which is also a targeted sub-sector. Another example of a sub-sector which could stand to benefit from the credit crunch and the slowing economy is the Business Management Services (785500) sub-sector. The increased financial pressures is expected to drive enterprises to lower production and inputs costs while increasing productivity. Other factors that will have an impact on the North Shore economy are inflation and interest rates, reducing the purchasing power of domestic households and businesses.
VALUE ADDED/FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS
2008
2031
High Technology
109,826
117,894
Movement % Change 8,068
7.3%
Education
51,411
59,347
7,936
15.4%
Sports & Performance
63,262
73,618
10,356
16.4%
Financial & Professional
91,135
98,126
6,991
7.7%
Health
57,779
69,057
11,278
19.5%
Total (Targeted)
84,528
94,336
9,808
11.6%
“
2 North Shore City is second only to the central government-dominated Wellington City, in terms of average household incomes.
Key INDICATORS
The second part of the report summarises key indicators of growth for the North Shore. The North Shore’s population has grown by more than 20,000 residents between 2001 and 2006 and is estimated at 220,300 - approximately 16% of the regional total. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and this growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. The projected growth is faster than projected New Zealand growth, but slower than regional growth which is expected to be between 1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and 2016. Based on Statistics New Zealand projections, North Shore’s population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 by 2026. The City is home to approximately 78,000 households, or 16.9% of the Auckland regional households. Given that the City is home to 16% of the
population, the average household size is lower than the regional average - this points to an older population. Between 2006 and 2011 an additional 5,900 households will reside on the North Shore and by 2026 the North Shore will be host to an additional 27,300 households. This is the equivalent of adding the city of Palmerston North to North Shore in 20 years. In the regional context, the North Shore will capture 13.3% of new households in the 2006-2011 growth period and 14.4% of new households in the 2011 to 2026 period. North Shore City is wealthy in both the regional and national contexts. The median household income is $69,100 (Census 2006), the highest in the region (regional average $63,400) while the national average is $51,400. North Shore City is second only to the central government dominated Wellington City, in terms of average household incomes.
HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS North Shore City
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
70,800
77,300
83,200
90,100
97,200
104,600
511,200
559,900
609,300
659,400
1,654,000
1,753,100
1,847,800
1,938,300
Auckland Region 419,400 466,700 New Zealand
1,439,800
1,558,300
2.1 Employment From 2001 to 2007 the number of employees on the North Shore increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a net gain of 19,400 or approximately 2,800 jobs per year. This growth accounted for 17.8% of the new jobs created in the Auckland region. During the same period, the City captured only 13.7% of household growth, meaning that in recent times the North Shore economy has been creating jobs at a significantly higher rate than household and population growth (30% faster). While the annual rate of employment creation fluctuated, the average rate at which employment grew (taking the base into account) on the North Shore was higher than either the Auckland or New Zealand rates. This suggests that the North Shore is becoming a greater contributor to both these economies and moving quickly to a more employment self sufficient state. The comparatively faster rate of growth highlights the
growing importance of the North Shore as a business centre in the Auckland and national contexts. The North Shore economy provides more than 10% of regional employment opportunities and is increasingly becoming an employment and business destination. Further, the number of businesses in the North Shore expressed as a percentage of the total of businesses in the region, has also increased, from 16.3% in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007. In a labour-constrained market place (as experienced over the recent past) this growth in employment indicates that the North Shore was a more favourable location to establish businesses and to work (compared to competing employment centres such as the Auckland Central Business District). It also indicates that businesses locating on the North Shore are growing in size (on average) and/or that North Shore City is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
“
The report indicates that North Shore City is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
North Shore as % of Auckland Region Employment
2001
2006
2007
12.9%
13.6%
13.7%
2.2 Economic Output Business on the North Shore plays a key role in the regional and New Zealand economies, and in generating wealth for North Shore households. North Shore City accounts for approximately 13.5% of economic activity in the Auckland region (in terms of both value added and output). From a
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
“
Output
Value added
Employment (ECs)
NZ
2.10%
1.62%
2.26%
ARC
2.41%
2.41%
2.42%
NS
2.12%
2.12%
2.94%
The key growth industries are high technology, education, sports, health and professional business services. 2.3 Targeted Business Sectors Targeted business sectors have been selected on the basis that North Shore City has a comparative advantage in these sectors and that they have the capability to transform the economy, drive economic growth and wealth creation for all North Shore households. They comprise: • High Technology – a broad range of enterprises developing or
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utilising advanced information and communication technologies. This sector includes niche manufacturing, the marine industry, ICT and machinery and equipment manufacturing. • Education – predominantly the tertiary sector but includes other post school education providers, both public and private. • Sports – based around large organisations such as Harbour Sport and the Millennium Centre with its high performance focus. • Health – hospitals, medical specialists and the information technology associated with the health sector. • Financial, Business & Professional Services – service providers to the financial and business sectors
national perspective the North Shore economy captures approximately 5% of economic output and value added. This contribution is generated with a proportionally lower employment base (c.f. 4.4% of national employment being located on the North Shore) implying businesses that add value at a higher than average rate locate here. Growth rates (see the accompanying figure) of value added and output were higher than national levels but marginally below regional rates. In terms of employment growth North Shore City grew faster than both the country as well as Auckland region. The North Shore’s performance is comparatively better than the national trends but only outperforms the regional economy in employment opportunities created.
including services such as computer consulting and data processing activities. The targeted business sectors capture an increasing share of North Shore (and regional and national) employment opportunities, with almost a third (28%) of North Shore employment in the targeted sectors. These sectors also account for a quarter (26%) of economic output and 25% of economic value added. With reference to productivity, these sectors tend to have a value added per employee ratio ($/FTE) that is higher than other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, the value-added per employee (total economy) in the North Shore is higher than the value-added per employee in both the New Zealand and the Auckland region contexts.
3 Conclusion This report highlights the local economy’s ability to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to North Shore households through wealth creation and employment opportunities. Significant additional value added is generated in the City, and significant growth in local employment is forecast. Growth in particular skillsets and occupations is required to sustain output expansion. Capacity building must also be linked with investment in infrastructure, services, plant, and new buildings to support ongoing growth.
Given that current planning policy is to intensify development within the metropolitan urban limits (MUL), it is essential that the growth of North Shore City’s economy is managed – with a focus on the attraction, growth and retention of knowledge-intensive, employee rich enterprises. Consequently, Enterprise North Shore is poised to assist growth in the targeted sectors and the economy overall. Programmes that optimise investment conditions and address issues such as skilled labour requirements and other key factors of production are paramount to the future growth of the City.
4 Next steps This research is ongoing and an opportunity exists to participate in the next round. To contribute to the next report on North Shore City’s Economic Future (due mid 2009), please complete the Economic Futures Survey at: www.ens.org.nz/nsefsurvey Note: the full report, a summary and a copy of this executive summary can be downloaded via this link: www.ens.org.nz/nsefreport Enterprise North Shore and Market Economics Limited would like to thank the North Shore City Council, businesses and individuals from all sectors who helped to make this development of a future scenario possible.
11
Economic Futures Report For
North Shore City
full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices November 2008
Promoting North Shore Economic Development
Enterprise North Shore September 2008
TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1 1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION .................................................................................................... 1
2
1.1 1.2
OBJECTIVES & SCOPE .............................................................................................................. 1 APPROACH FOLLOWED ........................................................................................................... 2
1.3 1.4
INFORMATION SOURCES ........................................................................................................ 2 REPORT STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 3
THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE............................................................................... 4 2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES ...................................................................................................... 4 2.2 2.3
ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES ................................................................................. 8 ECONOMIC OUTPUT ............................................................................................................... 9
2.4 2.5
PRIORITY SECTORS ................................................................................................................ 10 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................... 14
2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 17 PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW .............................................................................. 18 3
THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL .................................................. 19 3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE ....................................................... 20 3.2.1 VALUE ADDED ................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 3.2.3
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS ............................................................................................... 20 GROSS OUTPUT................................................................................................................. 21
3.2.4 3.2.5
OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE ................................................................................... 21 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE.............................................................................. 22
3.3 3.4
BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS ....................................................................................... 23 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 25
PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW ................................................................ 26 4 MODEL OUTCOMES ....................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS .................................................................. 26 4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’..................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES ......................................................................................................... 28 4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS............................................................................................................ 32 4.2.1 4.2.2
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS.......................................................................................... 32 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................ 34
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS................................................................................... 36 4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................................................................................................... 39 5
4.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 45 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS.......................................................................................................... 47
6 7
LIST OF REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH ............................................................................ 57
8 9
APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION ................................................. 59 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA ................................................................. 60
10 11
APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS .......................................... 61 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................. 63
12
APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR ........................................................... 65
i
Enterprise North Shore September 2008
13 14
APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES ...................................................................................... 66 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR............................................................. 67
15 16
APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR ............................................................... 69 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES) ............................ 71
17 18
APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS ......................................................... 73 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS ............................................................................... 77
ii
Enterprise North Shore September 2008 LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006 ................................................................ 5 FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7 ....................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY ................................................................ 13 FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY .......................................................... 13 FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT .............................................................................................................. 14 FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................... 16 FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE) .......................... 16 FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA) ......... 24 FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS ................................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-2: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2011 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-3: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2031 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031 ................................................................................ 27 FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$ .............................................................. 30 FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011* ........................ 31 FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS .............................................................................. 35 FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 36 FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE) .................................................................................... 38 FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE) ......................................................................... 41 FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES...................................................................................................... 42 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .................................................................................................... 7 TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS .............................................................................................. 8 TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION ................................................................................................... 9 TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS .................................................... 11 TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE ....................................... 11 TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ % .............................................................................. 12 TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031) ............. 19 TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS ................................................................... 20 TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)................................................................................... 20 TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED SECTOR .......................................................................................... 21 TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS ......... 22 TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................................ 22 TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING ............................................................................................... 29 TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS .......................................................... 33 TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS ....................................................................... 35 TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS ................................................................................... 37 TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1) .................................................... 39 TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS .......................................................................................................................... 49 TABLE 5-2: TARGETED SECTORS – NORTH SHORE .................................................................................. 51 TABLE 5-3: TARGETED SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION ........................................................................... 52 TABLE 5-4: TARGETED SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND .................................................................................... 53 TABLE 5-5: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION) .................... 54 TABLE 5-6: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND) ................... 54 TABLE 5-7: TARGETED SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS ........................................................................... 55
iii
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 1: BACKGROUND 1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many issues and challenges for the city. The purpose of this report is to describe, in terms of population and economic growth out to 2031, one of a number of potential futures for North Shore City that is based on a ‘Future Scenario’. The future described in this report is based on outputs of North Shore City’s’ Economic Futures Model, assuming business-as-usual conditions ie. the current trends, industry interactions and dynamics and market forces remain stable. It is envisaged that these outputs will provide Enterprise North Shore and the North Shore City Council with a baseline future, from which strategic decisions can be made about the future profile of economic activity in the city and economic development initiatives.
1.1 OBJECTIVES & SCOPE Economic development and the measurement of impacts in the economy are difficult to gauge, due to the limited availability and time lags associated with information releases. Economic Development Agencies (EDA) face a number of issues around the monitoring and tracking of the economy and in isolating the impacts of their activities. In order to assist Enterprise North Shore in overcoming these challenges, the following objectives were formulated and addressed throughout this project: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
To develop and provide a single source of information and monitoring of trends and key indicators of the North Shore economy. To provide a link between the interventions in key sectors and the measurement of growth in key sectors. The ability to monitor ENS performance and report to stakeholders – NSCC, shareholders etc. To outline the likely growth path of the North Shore within the context of the Auckland region over the medium to long term (next 20 years). The ability to assess quickly the economic impacts associated with potential new business to the North Shore with the intention of: a. Targeting the types of intervention which may be most appropriate b. Supporting possible lobbying of funding from central, regional and local government, and c. Guiding the communication between applicant and ENS.
Points 1 through 4 are addressed in this report. As the development of the information and monitoring of the key trends is an ongoing process, the report outlines the result of the first stage with the emphasis on Point 4’s findings. Point 5 mentioned above has been addressed through a separate process. This report provides a discussion of the results of the modelling, a short interpretation of the results and detail around the city’s targeted business sectors. Additionally a list of indicators with the current ‘levels’ is also included. The aim of this report and the accompanying modelling was not to identify the latent development opportunities or emerging strengths of the city’s economy. The shift share framework used in the review of the 48 sectors provides an indication of the underlying sectoral trends, and ongoing monitoring and utilisation of this framework could assist in identifying development potential (albeit at a high level).
1
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
1.2 APPROACH FOLLOWED Market Economics Limited followed a customised approach to develop and define the ‘Future Scenario’. This section provides an overview of the methodology employed in creating North Shore City’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). It can be noted that, while the study is concerned specifically with the North Shore, the methodology described in Appendix 1.1 can, in principle, be applied to any other territory within New Zealand. The EFM model is based on a multi-regional input-output model, and as such it is constrained by the limitations of input-output economics. These are well documented in many elementary input-output texts, including: •
Richardson (1972),
• •
Blain and Miller (1985), and McDonald and Patterson (2004).
Readers are directed to these texts for further information. Importantly, one of the key assumptions incorporated within the input-output model is that inter-industry interdependencies (expressed as relatives) remain constant throughout the study period. The scenario results reported here are derived from the use of the city’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). The EFM is a multi-regional scenario model that traces the environment-economy implications of growth by economic sector and households, typically over a 20-year timeframe. Importantly, the EFM is premised on a ‘systems’ perspective; with a concerted effort in the model’s construction to account for the highly interconnected and complex nature of economic change. In these regards, it can be noted that the model is based on a multi-regional input-output framework that captures both the implications of growth occurring within the specific economy under study (ie the North Shore City economy), as well as the wider economic feedbacks between the study area and the rest of the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the input-output mathematics utilised within the model calculate not only the direct effects of economic change for a given North Shore sector, but also the indirect (ie upstream flow-on) and induced (ie resulting from consumer spending) effects arising as a result of the change. When interpreting the results of this study it is, however, important to keep in mind that no model can predict the future – the best a model can do is to assess - and then only to a limited extent under restrictive assumptions and possible implications of plausible scenarios. The ‘Future Scenario’ investigated in this report is one of a number of plausible scenarios for North Shore City that might be investigated by using the EFM model. It is envisaged that the results presented here will provide a baseline upon which to compare economic tradeoffs and implications resulting from other ‘what-if’ scenarios.
1.3 INFORMATION SOURCES A range of information sources have been consulted during the development of the EFM model and this report. For the purposes of this report, the main sources accessed include: • •
The North Shore Economic Futures Model Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• •
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Economic and sectoral outlooks and commentaries as published by different financial institutions
• •
Statistics New Zealand Business Frame Data Statistics New Zealand Census information
•
Market Economics In house databases. 2
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Various datasets have been used and developed throughout the project and are attached as appendices to the report. Where applicable, the information has been synthesised and included in the Appendices. In the body of the report, only extracts of the information are presented with suitable referencing to the applicable appendix contained in the report. Where applicable, the sources of information accessed during the drafting of this report are referenced, and a List of References is included at the end of this report.
1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE The report consists of three main parts and the individual sections within the parts. The three main parts are used to structure the report into the main elements, ie: •
Part 1: Background consists of two sections of which this introductory section is one: o Section 2: contains a description of the North Shore area and provides a strategic perspective. An indication of the demographic and economic features of the area is provided within the contexts of the national and regional contexts.
•
Part 2: ‘Future Scenario’ – Concise Overview provides a description of the future with a focus on the Targeted Business Sectors: o Section 3: presents and discusses the main findings of the EFM modelling with a focus on the ‘Future Scenario’ and the targeted business sectors. The section also provides an overview of the economy in general (under the ‘Future Scenario’), the projected occupational requirements and the highlights of the business survey.
•
Part 3: ‘Future Scenario’ – Sectoral Overview consists of two sections: o Section 4 contains a detailed description of the modelling outcomes and uses the 48 sector classification system. This scenario provides a detailed account of the projected economic performance of the North Shore economy, according to the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions for sectoral domestic and export final demand changes. The specific parameters focused on in this section include population and sectoral characteristics such as employment per sector and the value added per sector. The 48 sector classification system (which is consistent with the New Zealand System of National Accounts (NZSNZ) has been used throughout the modelling activities. The section concludes with a summary of the shift share o
analysis (based on the simple location quotient) for the 48 sectors. The report concludes with Section 5 which presents an inventory of indicators and measures. The indicators focus firstly on the overall condition and context of the North Shore economy and, secondly, on the targeted business sectors.
3
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2 THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE The North Shore functions within a broader environment by way of imports, exports, labour movements and other activities. The purpose of this section is to provide an overview of the recent trends experienced on the North Shore, and to view these trends in the context of the broader region and economy (ie. the Auckland region and New Zealand). The context presented, in essence, forms the basis for the assumptions used in the modelling activities associated with the ‘Future Scenario’. Similarly, the assumptions form the basis for the targeting of the various interventions. The focus of the section is to present a strategic perspective of the North Shore situation with an emphasis on: • •
The economic structure, sectoral performance highlights and interaction with the broader region. The employment situation vis-a-vis the use of employment (in terms of Full time equivalents and/or Employment
•
Counts) and the aggregate level of labour utilisation (unemployment). The demographic features such as the size of the population, the population structure and expected growth rates according to age cohorts.
The section concludes with highlights of the salient features of the priority sectors associated with Enterprise North Shore’s targeted business sectors. These sectors are: •
Information and Communications Technology sector
• •
Education sector Sport sector
• •
Health sector, and Financial and Professional Services sectors.
The context presented in the section is further augmented by a brief overview of selected resource-related indicators such as: • •
Land utilisation by the main economic sections Recent trends in the building consents issued by type.
Ultimately, this section does not strive to provide a detailed, in-depth discussion of the economic situation but to highlight the situation in terms of the main drivers of the economy.
2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES Population and its associated characteristics have an important role in economic development planning, as the local populace acts as a source of labour (employees) as well as demand for goods and services (consumers). Additionally the age profile of the population has implications for both the demand (consumer component) and the supply (of labour). The movements over time of the demographic profile, and the competition between regions to 1) attract suitably qualified labourers and, 2) the highest number of consumers (spending power), has important implications for future economic activity.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The North Shore (like other New Zealand regions, and developed countries in general) it is projected that North Shore City will experience significant population ageing over the next 25 years. The population structure of the North Shore is presented in the following figure. In total, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the study period from 10.7% in 2006, to 19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of New Zealand as a whole, with the proportion of FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006 persons aged 65 and older projected to increase 85+
to 21% by 2031. Like many other countries, New Zealand’s ageing population is primarily
80-84 75-79
attributed to significant declines in fertility rates and family size, post World War II ie. post
Females
70-74 65-69
Males
60-64
“Baby-boomers”.
55-59 50-54
The resultant ‘bulge’ in the age structure is systematically progressing through the age
45-49 40-44 35-39
profile. The net effect of the movement through the population is that the ‘younger”
30-34 25-29
1
generations tend to be smaller (in number terms) with a further effect of lowering the
20-24 15-19 10-14
birth rates. While advances in medical and health technologies are reducing mortality rates, the births are comparatively lower, which translates into a lower population growth rate.
5-9 0-4 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000
-
2,000 4,000
6,000
8,000 10,000 12,000
In addition to the natural population growth rate, migration also has an influence on the population profile. Based on the Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) population projections, an outline of the future levels of in-and-out migration for the North Shore has been determined. The main observations regarding the net migration are (under the medium growth projections):
Re lationship between Age, Income & Public Investment At the 2001 census, the median annual income for a person aged 65 years and over was around 70% of the median income for adults aged 15-64 years. (Stats NZ) Older people are significant consumers of health and disability support services, and make up a substantial proportion of total domestic consumption. Public expenditure on health in 2001/02, for example, was estimated at:
a) A net loss of persons aged 20-29 years. b) A relatively stable position regarding c)
the 20-24 year cohort. A net gain (via migration of 0.3% to 0.4% of the base) for the 25-29 year age group.
$949 per capita for persons under the age of 15, $1,329 for persons aged 15-64 years, $3,643 for persons 65-74 years, $6,863 for persons 75-84 years, and $13,568 for persons 85 years and over (Ministry of Health, 2002).
The overall effect of the population growth and the net ageing has, as mentioned, important implications for consumption levels and economic growth. For example:
1
Referring the ‘Generation X’ and ‘Generation Y’ 5
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The young require intensive investment in education,
• •
“Mid-age” adults supply labour and savings, and The aged require health care and retirement income.
Therefore, when the relative size of each of these groups in a population changes, so does the relative intensity of these economic behaviours (Bloom et al., 2002). As shown by Figure 2.1, the ‘population bulge’ on the North Shore is currently situated around the 35 to 50 age group, which importantly tends to be the highest income-earning years of people’s lives. In 2007 approximately a quarter (±25%) of the North Shore population was aged 19 years or less (< 19 years old) and approximately 12% was aged older than 65 years. Persons in the 65+ age group tend to have relatively low incomes due to declining work participation, and this is likely to have important consequences in terms of their ability to purchase goods and services. International research2 has shown that in this age profile, approximately 50% of the expenditure profile is accounted for by changes in household demographics. The consumer demand element is further strongly influenced by factors such as: •
Education levels and occupation.
• •
House ownership characteristics. Household size.
The age categories with the strongest consumer power (purchasing powers and the propensity to spend) are generally between the ages of 45 and 55, with the peak around the 49-50-year age. The age profiles of the North Shore City are evaluated in terms of the preceding to illustrate the relative movement associated with the age categories. The shifts in the demographic profile have been included in the ‘Future Scenario’ projections and variables and parameters applied are outlined in the subsequent section. The North Shore’s population has grown by more than 20,000 persons between 2001 and 2006. Statistics New Zealand estimates that the population as at June 30 2007 was 220,300 (approximately 16% of the regional total). North Shore City is located in the Auckland region, which captured almost 50.2% of the New Zealand growth from 2001 to 2006. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. The projected growth is faster than the projected New Zealand growth, but is slower than the Auckland regional growth which is expected to grow at between 1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and 2016. Both the Auckland region and the North Shore’ population are expected to grow at almost double the rate of the national population. On average, North Shore City’s population is older than the Auckland regional population. The 2006 Census counted the median age to be 35.9 for North Shore City and 33.9 years for the region as a whole – meaning the rest of the region is lower still. An older population has lower fertility rates than a younger one, meaning the demographics of the city point to a lower growth future than the rest of the region. The median age in North Shore City is the same as the nation as a whole. Based on the projected growth rates, the North Shore population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 people by 2026. The North Shore is home to approximately 78,000 households, or 16.9% of the Auckland regional households. Given that the city is home to 16% of the population, the average household size in the city is lower than the regional average - again this point to an older population. A summary of the household growth for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand is presented in Table 2-1. 2
Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D. 6
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
North Shore City
70,800
77,300
83,200
90,100
97,200
104,600
Auckland Region
419,400
466,700
511,200
559,900
609,300
659,400
1,439,800
1,558,300
1,654,000
1,753,100
1,847,800
1,938,300
New Zealand
Between 2006 and 2011, an additional 5,900 households will reside in the North Shore. By 2026, the North Shore will host an additional 27,300 households (between 2006 and 2026). This is the equivalent of adding the city of Palmerston North to the North Shore in 20 years. In the regional context (Auckland region), the North Shore will capture 13.3% of the new households in the 2006-2011 growth period and 14.4% of the new households in the 2011 to 2026 period. A defining characteristic of North Shore 3
City’s household formation is decreasing household size, ie households are expected to become smaller . The reduced size of the households is influenced by the shifts in population profile (age structure). And, while the population total is expected to grow, the change in the population structure has wide-ranging implications for education, social service provision and employment provision within the city. The following table indicates shifts in the population structure and highlights the declining proportion of the population within the Potentially Economic Active (PEA) segment – those in the prime working age ranges of 19 – 65 years. The potentially economically active population only provides an indication of the likely labour force and the relative size of this segment to the overall population. However, the proportional shift in the PEA highlighted in the preceding text does not equate to DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT an absolute decline in the 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 segment which is actually <19 26.3% 25.3% 24.5% 23.7% 22.9% expected to increase (in number >65 11.9% 13.7% 15.2% 17.0% 19.0% terms) from approximately % 38.1% 39.0% 39.7% 40.8% 41.9% 143,200 (in 2011) to 167,700 by 2026 - an increase of some 24,500 – roughly the equivalent of one working-age person per additional household over the same time period. Ageing of the population influences (directly) the economy through the availability of labour to participate in the economy, and secondly (indirectly) through the consumption patterns and effects. In total, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the study period from 10.7% in 2006 to 19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of New Zealand as a whole, with the proportion of persons aged 65 and older projected to increase to 21% by 2031. By including the proportion of the population which is younger than 19, the share of the population that falls within the potential economically active cohort is expected to decline from 61.9% in 2006 to 58.1% in 2026. North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many opportunities, issues and challenges for the city.
3
The households becoming smaller relates to the number of individuals in the households and not the size of the
residence per se. 7
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.2 ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES The economic features of the North Shore are discussed by providing an indication of the main economic sectors in the area, and by placing these sectors in context in terms of their relative contribution towards the regional (Auckland) and national (New Zealand) economies. Similarly, employment by sector is also reviewed. In 2007, 13% of all the employment opportunities in the Auckland region were located on the North Shore and almost 5% of the New Zealand employment opportunities were located within the city. This was a proportional increase in the employment opportunities located on the North Shore. More specifically, the increase between 2001 and 2007 was from 12.9% (from a regional perspective) and from 4.1% (from a national perspective). With reference to the share of business units located on the North Shore, a similar distribution is evident: •
Regional share2007
16.9%
(2001 = 16.3%).
•
National share2007
5.3%
(2001 = 4.9%).
Historic trends in employment levels (actual employment) are shown in Table 2-2. Note that the table outlines the actual employment counts and should not be confused with the potentially active population discussed earlier. TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
North Shore City
66,700
70,900
74,100
78,500
81,700
83,500
86,100
Auckland Region
518,200
532,000
553,600
578,900
598,700
612,200
627,100
1,612,200
1,661,600
1,716,500
1,785,500
1,844,700
1,880,800
1,923,300
New Zealand North Shore % of region North Shore % of NZ
12.9%
13.3%
13.4%
13.6%
13.6%
13.6%
13.7%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
From 2001 to 2007 the number of employees on the North Shore has increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a net gain of 19,400 or approximately 2,800 jobs per year. In the regional context, the growth accounted for 17.8% of the new jobs created in the Auckland region. During the same period, the city captured only 13.7% of the household growth. This means that in recent times the North Shore economy has created jobs at a significantly higher rate than household and population growth (30% faster). While the annual rate of employment creation varied, the annual rate at which employment grew (taking the base into account) on the North Shore was larger than either the Auckland or New Zealand rates. This suggests that the North Shore is becoming a greater contributor to both these economies, and is moving quickly to a more employment self-sufficient state. The comparatively faster rate of growth highlights the growing importance of the North Shore as a business centre in the Auckland (and therefore national) context.
North Shore % of Auckland Region Employment
2001
2006
2007
12.9%
13.6%
13.7%
The North Shore economy provides more than 10% of the regional employment opportunities, and is increasingly becoming an employment and business destination. The share of Auckland regional employment provided on the North Shore increased from 12.9% in 2001 to 13.9% in 2007. Further, the number of businesses in the North Shore expressed as a percentage of the total of businesses in the region has also increased, but not as fast as employment (from 16.3% in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007). The mismatch between these growth rates implies that the businesses in the North Shore’s employment requirements have grown 8
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
comparatively faster than the employment in the broader Auckland region. This indicates that the North Shore’s businesses are growing comparatively faster than the region as a whole. In a labour-constrained market place (as experienced over the past period) the growth in employment could be interpreted as meaning that the North Shore was a more favourable location to work – compared to the competing employment centres of others, such as the Auckland Central Business District. This implies that businesses locating on the North Shore are growing in size (on average) and that the North Shore is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
2.3 ECONOMIC OUTPUT Apart from the employment opportunities, the value of the business activity on the North Shore plays a key role in the Auckland regional and New Zealand economies, and in generating wealth for North Shore households. The North Shore accounts for approximately 13.5% of the economic activity in the Auckland region (in terms of both value added and output). It is important to focus on Gross Geographic Product (GGP)4 or value added as the key measure of economic contribution, as this is the ‘truer’ measure of value added within the economy. Value added – as an indicator - removes the value of inputs created outside of the economy which therefore do not create local value in their production. From a national (ie New Zealand) perspective, the North Shore economy captures approximately 5% of economic output and value-added. This contribution is generated with a proportionally lower employment base (c.f. 4.4% of national employment being located on the North Shore). Recent trends in the economic contribution of the North Shore to the region and New Zealand is reflected in TABLE 2-3.
TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION 2004
2006
2007
North Shore as % of Region Output
13.5%
Value Added
13.8%
13.4%
13.4%
13.7%
13.6%
North Shore as % of New Zealand Output
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
Value Added
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
It is estimated that economic activity in the North Shore economy generated $7,430 m in GDP in 2006 ($7,999m once final demand contribution is added). In addition to this contribution, the comparative growth rates as experienced over the short term are reflected in Figure 2-2. The North Shores’s performance is comparatively better than the national trends, but only outperforms the regional economy in employment opportunities created. It is stressed that the accompanying figure reflects the trends in the ‘overall economy’ and does not: •
Reflect the longer term trends or outlooks.
•
The relative performance of the ‘key sectors’ within the North Shore economy.
The key targeted sectors are discussed in the following section with the emphasis on providing the context of these sectors within the North Shore economy.
4
GGP is technically similar to gross domestic product (GDP) with the area defined being the only difference. GDP
refers to the domestic ie. the country as a whole, while GGP relates to a specific area/region such as the North Shore. 9
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Output
Value added
Employment (ECs)
NZ
2.10%
1.62%
2.26%
ARC
2.41%
2.41%
2.42%
NS
2.12%
2.12%
2.94%
2.4 PRIORITY SECTORS Growth, employment and activity trends in key sectors within the North Shore economy and the main implications of these trends have been investigated. The targeted business sectors have been selected by Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council’s economic development division on the basis that North Shore City has a comparative advantage in these sectors and that they have the capability to: •
Transform the entire economy, and
•
Drive growth and wealth creation for all North Shore households.
These sectors comprise: •
• • • •
High Technology – a broad range of enterprises utilising advanced information and communication technologies in their operational process. This sector includes niche manufacturing, the marine industry and machinery and equipment manufacturing. Education – primarily tertiary sector but includes other post-school education providers Sports – based around large organisations such as Harbour Sport and the Millennium Centre with its high performance focus Health – hospitals, medical specialists and the information technology associated with the health sector Financial, Business & Professional Services – service providers to the financial and business sectors.
These sectors capture an increasing share of the North Shore (and regional and national) employment opportunities, with approximately 28% of the North Shore employment in these sectors. Table 2-4 outlines the recent trends in the employee counts for the targeted business sectors for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand. In order to estimate the value of gross output, value-added and employment generated by the targeted business sectors, the 6-Digit ANZSIC classifications were used. As each 6D ANZSIC falls within one of the 48 modelled sectors, it is possible to apportion the 6D ANZSIC to targeted business sectors based on the 48 sectors. The apportionment is based on employment within the main 48 sectors of the targeted business groupings ie. the share of the employment within each of the 6D ANZSIC categories that are associated with the targeted business sectors, is included into a table
10
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
that references the 48 sectors. A full list of the 6D ANZSIC codes associated with the targeted business sectors is presented in Appendix 2.1 TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2001
2002
2,561
2,508
4,748
5,568
860 4,300
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,678
2,818
2,897
3,024
2,801
5,870
6,270
6,350
6,380
6,895
975
1,140
1,145
1,190
1,275
1,270
4,670
4,515
5,050
5,605
6,265
6,260
North Shore High Technology Education Sports Health Financial & Professional Services Not-targeted All Industries
7,559
8,215
9,006
9,740
10,106
10,993
12,181
46,624
48,940
50,898
53,514
55,507
55,563
56,714
66,652
70,876
74,107
78,537
81,655
83,500
86,121
Region
High Technology Education Sports Health Financial & Professional Services Not-targeted All Industries
21,388
21,388
21,814
22,193
22,073
22,407
22,882
37,844
37,844
45,314
46,705
47,597
47,033
50,293
4,912
4,912
5,617
5,585
5,849
6,277
6,424
27,618
27,618
30,285
31,107
32,487
34,574
35,156
66,347
66,347
72,837
78,992
85,042
90,297
93,556
360,122
360,122
377,736
394,288
405,688
411,659
418,761
518,231
518,231
553,603
578,870
598,736
612,247
627,072
New Zealand 51,340 53,020 52,890 53,165 52,930 52,990 High Technology 132,560 137,980 145,940 149,480 150,580 147,940 Education 14,740 16,170 16,840 17,540 18,030 18,990 Sports 103,320 108,980 110,440 113,710 115,980 119,300 Health 150,500 152,495 160,335 171,080 183,420 192,825 Financial & Professional Services 1,159,777 1,192,982 1,230,093 1,280,518 1,323,720 1,348,776 Non-targeted Source: Market Economics Limited calculations based on Statistics New Zealand
53,410 155,630 19,900 120,440 202,305 1,371,621
It is evident from the preceding table that the city’s targeted business sectors play an important role in the North Shore context vis-à-vis employment. These sectors also account for approximately 26% of the North Shore economic output and 25% of the economic value-added. The following table provides an indication of the size of these sectors in terms of the economic output. TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS
2006
High Technology
851,571
872,862
67,187
68,703
70,253
116,642
119,753
122,948
1,807,717
1,854,374
1,902,265
Sports & Performance Health Total (Targeted)
2008*
830,880
Education Financial & Professional
2007*
378,930
386,332
393,880
3,201,355
3,280,734
3,362,208
* Estimated With reference to the High Technology sector, the North Shore sector outperformed both the Auckland and New Zealand sectors in the short term. By comparing the contribution (in terms of output) of the different business sectors toward the aggregate economies, it is clear that the Financial and Professional services dominate over the other sectors. In North Shore City, this sector captures close to 60% of the total targeted business sectors’ output, which is 11
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
higher than the New Zealand (50%) situation and marginally lower than the regional level (60%). Table 2-6 illustrates the movements in the individual targeted business sectors contribution. TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ %
SECTOR
2006
2007*
2008*
High Technology
25.95%
25.96%
25.96%
Education
2.10%
2.09%
2.09%
Sports & Performance
3.64%
3.65%
3.66%
Financial & Professional
56.47%
56.52%
56.58%
Health
11.84% 100.0%
11.78% 100.0%
11.71% 100.0%
Total (Targeted)
The Financial and Professional sectors’ relative dominance of the targeted business sectors highlights the role of the North Shore in the ‘service economy’ both in terms of provision of commercial services and household services (given the high share of activity in the retail and household services sectors). It also underlines the growth potential of the other targeted business sectors already identified as important to North Shore City’s future. The second largest targeted business sector is the High Technology sector, which captured 25.95% of the targeted business sectors’ output in 2007. The value output of high technology has grown comparatively faster than the other targeted business sectors, and this sector’s importance in the North Shore context (targeted business sectors) is expected to increase in the immediate future. All the targeted business sectors are expected to grow, with the sport and performance component expected to grow the fastest at 2.67% in the 2006-2011 period, followed by the high technology- and financial and professional services sectors (forecast to grow at 2.51% and 2.58% respectively). Over the long term (2006-2031), the targeted business sectors are projected to grow at 2.4% per annum – which is faster than the projected 2.17% national growth rates for the targeted business sectors. However this is marginally slower than the 2.5% forecast for the Auckland region’s growth. With reference to value-added per employee, the targeted business sectors tend to have a higher value added per employee than the other sectors of the economy. The following two figures indicate firstly the value added per employment in the high technology sector of the North Shore, Auckland region and the overall New Zealand economy. The second figure is a comparison of the value added (total industry) for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand. The targeted business sectors on the North Shore have a higher value added per FTE than the aggregate economy and, furthermore, the value added per employee (total economy) on the North Shore is higher than the value added per employee in both the New Zealand and the Auckland region contexts. With reference to the value added per employee, the Auckland region and the North Shore have similar characteristics for the overall economy with both regions (although growing) expanding comparatively slower than the national levels. A driver of the value-added per FTE in the high technology sector (Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4) is a result of North Shore having a relative concentration in some of the sub-sectors constituting the high technology sector as defined earlier, including: •
Telecommunication Services
• •
Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing Electrical Equipment Manufacturing
• •
Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing Ship- and boat building. 12
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 North Shore
Auckland
NZ
80,000 75,000 2006
2007
2008
FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 North Shore
Auckland
NZ
20,000 2006
2007
13
2008
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.5 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT The North Shore economy functions in a wider economic environment, and it is necessary to consider this external environment and see its context within the environment in which North Shore businesses trade. The following section is based on economic and sectoral commentaries of different financial institutions. The intention of the following is to sketch the outlook and the broader environment. It can be said that the effects of a slowing global economy and tighter lending conditions are expected to influence the North Shore economy directly and indirectly through lower demand for goods and services produced, and higher costs for inputs to the production process. The higher costs of capital are likely to influence companies’ ability to expand and take advantage of opportunities. New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) is predicting a slow weakening of the New Zealand dollar – especially against the Australian dollar buoyed by continued strong mineral commodity returns that do not look like reducing in the short or medium term. Inflation pressures that remain within the New Zealand economy are likely to provide upward pressure on the dollar versus the US dollar. However, the New Zealand Reserve Bank in has moved earlier than most expected to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR), which should move the dollar downwards. New Zealand’s current account deficit is expected to improve over the medium term, potentially reducing the risk premium associated with New Zealand dollar denominated investments and helping to maintain its strength. While the dollar is not expected to achieve the highs of recent months, it is likely to remain volatile in the short term. NZIER is predicting an exchange rate of more than 70 cents (US) for the medium term. Apart from the constraints on the economy discussed above, opportunities will emerge for some targeted business sub-sectors. For example, the Advertising Services (L785100) might experience an increase in work as firms aim to increase market exposure and attempt to build on existing branding images in times of constrained demand. These activities have strong linkage with the Commercial Art and Display Services (L785200) sector, which is also a targeted sub-sector. Another example of a sub-sector which could stand to benefit from the credit crunch and the slowing economy is the Business Management Services (785500) sub-sector. The increased financial pressures faced by business entities are expected to trigger a drive to lower production and input costs whilst increasing productivity. The expected slowdown in the New Zealand economy is currently manifesting through reduced levels of business confidence and other indicators, such as lower consumer spending (retail sales) and an increase in unemployment although from historically low figures (Refer to Figure 2-5). Other factors that will have an impact on the North Shore economy are inflation and interest rates reducing the purchasing power of domestic households and businesses.
FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT
According to the Westpac Economic Overview (Q2), inflation has become a dominant force around the globe and is also influencing New Zealand. According to the Westpac modelling, inflation is expected to reach 5.5% later in 2008, primarily as a result of high and rising food and energy prices. The rising cost of living is taking a toll on consumers and businesses (as reflected by business confidence and retail spending figures) and investment activity has all but dried up. 14
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Business confidence about where the economy will be in 12 months’ time has, after improving for three months in a row, gone backwards over the past month5. In the BNZ survey a net 43.9% of respondents said they expect the economy to get worse. This is a deterioration from a net 29.8% pessimistic in late May, but is still below the recent peak for pessimism in March of a net 62.3%. The results reflect the further increasing of petrol prices in recent times, along with weaker sales activity reported by many respondents. The slowing of the economy and the short term outlook for the global economy has resulted in the Offical Cash Rate (OCR) being lowered (24 July 2008). The rationale for the lowering of the OCR from 8.25 percent to 8.0 percent was based on the risk that the domestic economy will slow even further. The Reserve Bank indicated that “Recent oil and food price increases mean that annual CPI inflation should peak around 5 percent in the September quarter of this year. The weaker economy is expected to reduce pressure on resources, making it more difficult for firms to pass on costs and for higher wage claims to be agreed.” Further reductions are unlikely to be made rapidly as significant inflationary pressures exist in the economy such as: high oil and commodity prices, a falling dollar raising import costs, stimulatory tax reduction packages around the election aimed at low and middle income families who have a greater propensity to increase spending in response. A key area where impacts of OCR changes can be seen is in the construction sector. Residential construction activity has weakened from a high base over recent months. High interest rates, credit tightening and low net migration have reduced housing demand. Sales of existing houses have halved over the past 12 months. Construction activity tends to follow the trends of sales, with a lag of around six months. Residential building construction is expected to decline through 2008 and into 2009, with a decline of around 18% over the two-year period. While the non-residential construction activity is expected to fare better, credit tightening, low business confidence and the current softening in domestic demand will see some projects delayed in the short term. Westpac expects economic output growth to slow to 0.6% in the year ended December 2008, with the worst of the recession being experienced in the current (June 2008) quarter. Economic activity is expected to improve from the end of 2008, with growth rebounding to 2.8% in the 2009 calendar year. NZIER6 expects GDP growth to slow to 1.9% for the March 2009 year (down from 2.9% for the March 2008 year). It expects GDP growth to bounce back relatively quickly, to average 2.9% growth annually between 2010 and 2012. The following figure (see Figure 2-6) reflects the recent trends in the residential construction sector in terms of the value and number of residential dwellings authorised (nationally). Additionally, the recent trend on the North Shore of non-residential buildings consents is also reflected. A review of the non-residential buildings approved in North Shore City (2000-2006) revealed the total value of approvals was in excess of $760 million (of which 29% ($225 million) was related to the Property and Business Services sector). The impacts of the increase in interest rates and the associated global slowdown are not evident in Figure 2-7; primarily as a result of the timeframes not allowing a direct comparison. The expected slowdown in investment is important for the North Shore (and broader economically) as the decreasing economic growth leads to decreasing investment which, in turn, leads to decreasing productivity growth and lower competitiveness levels compared to the competitors.
5
Bank of New Zealand 7th July 2008
6
Quartely Predictions, June 2008, NZIER 15
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION (# & $ OF DWELLING UNITS AUTHORISED – NEW ZEALAND
FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2000
2001
2002
Property & Business Services
2003
Education
2004
2005
Wholesale Trade
2006
TOTAL
Refer Appendix 2.3: Value of Non Residential Consents for the data on which this figure is based
16
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS The preceding section outlined the current situation on the North Shore from a wide perspective. While general conclusions could be drawn from the preceding, the most obvious is that the North Shore’s targeted business sectors have played a significant role in the North Shore context. This implies that investing in these sectors and encouraging their growth will generate more wealth within the North Shore economy than focusing on the economy in general. In addition, the flow-on effects through inter-industry linkages across the rest of the economy, help drive the overall economy to a greater extent than other sectors. The importance and dominance of financial and professional services in the North Shore economy have the potential to expose the economy to shocks and wider external movements – such as the current financial slowdown ie the Credit Crunch. The projections applied in the modelling of the North Shore economy and the inter-relationships with Auckland region and New Zealand is informed by historic trends, and the influence of the slowdown in the market is expected to filter through and affect the North Shore. While the economic modelling carried out with the Economic Futures Model incorporates variables to deal with changing demand conditions, the purpose of the modelling is not to predict/forecast the effects on the economy as a result of shocks, such as the credit crunch, or oil price movements. The following section discusses the ‘Future Scenario’ future in greater detail and includes an analysis of the targeted business sectors and the overall context of the North Shore economy.
17
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW 3 THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ The second part of this report outlines the description of the ‘Future Scenario’ of the North Shore economy. This is generated using a multi-regional input-output model of the economy developed specifically for Enterprise North Shore and called the Economic Futures Model (EFM). The key feature of North Shore’s EFM is that it establishes not only direct economic growth in key economic industries, but also the indirect growth associated with flow-on effects. Growth in the Marine industry, for example, will most likely result in growth in other industries, particularly through supply chain linkages. Furthermore, if additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This, in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly within services supporting households. The model furthermore captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore City and New Zealand economies. In this way, the implications of growth in key New Zealand industries on the North Shore economy are also captured. The EFM works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031, and determining economic activity required to produce these demands – including all of the associated flow on implications. Growth in household consumption is based on population projections, while projections of export demand are derived using econometric analysis. The outcomes initially derived from these projections are validated and adjusted as appropriate, based on primary research (the survey process is covered in a subsequent section). The repercussionary or flow on implications are then calculated using input-output 7
mathematics , with growth rates by the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2031 being the major output. These growth rates, with productivity allowances, are then used to estimate the future economic implications associated with growth. To date, the model has been set up to analyse only the ‘Future Scenario’ with a 20-year outlook. The ‘Future ’assumes that: a)
The current economic interdependencies between industries within North Shore City will continue to prevail, and
b) Only crude judgements about technological change may be made. It is important to restate the base position of North Shore City at this point, as the ‘Future Scenario’ is basically derived from recent trends (outlined in the preceding sections) in growth and change within the city, combined with anticipated growth in demands over the next 25 years. North Shore City is one of the seven territorial authorities that make up the Auckland region. It is the third largest TA in terms of population and recent growth (2001 – 2006) and is almost entirely urbanise, with only small pockets of semi-rural land on its northern borders with Rodney District. The city is structured around a number of sub-regional and suburban centres and employment areas (Takapuna, Albany, North Harbour Industrial Estate, and Wairau Valley). The city has a long coastline with a large number of beaches on its eastern flank. Town centres have developed behind most of the main beaches, as historically settlement patterns have favoured these locations.
7
Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact eg for events such as the America’s Cup and the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
18
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Population: The total population of North Shore City at June 2007 was 220,300, or 5.2% of the total New Zealand population (Statistics New Zealand, 2008). The city makes up 15.8% of the regional population, however it is not growing as fast as the region overall (2.2% annual average between 2001 and 2006 compared with 2.4% for the region). Recent growth is, however, almost 50% faster than the national average (2.25% versus 1.5%). As discussed above, demographic characteristics such as an older average age and higher incomes are associated with lower growth rates. This is offset to a certain extent by strong economic performance attracting population and a significant share of migration. The ‘Future Scenario’ is discussed by way of a summary of the terms of the economic activity; secondly a summary of the targeted business sectors’ relative performance under the ‘Future Scenario’; and finally an extraction of the key findings from the survey results.
3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL Current productive GDP generated within North Shore City is approximately $12.7bn (2006). This is expected to grow by $8.8bn to some $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68% growth in total). The contribution to the North Shore economy by the largest 20 sectors is ranked in Table 3-1. A full list of sectors and contributions is appended to this report. TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031) 2006 (Output $’m) Sector
# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Wholesale trade Business svcs Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Communication svcs Real estate Health & community svcs Construction Central government Education Insurance Finance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Personal & other community svcs Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Accommodation, restaurants & bars
2031 (Output $’m) Sector
$’m 894 883 843 559 557 538 387 340 272 262 204 193 182 134 115 113 109 96 29 93
Business svcs Wholesale trade Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Real estate Communication svcs Construction Health & community svcs Education Central government Machinery & equipment manuf Finance Insurance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Cultural & recreational svcs Personal & other community svcs Accommodation, restaurants & bars Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment
$’m 1,756 1,423 1,252 887 856 836 647 586 427 406 348 309 307 248 221 213 198 192 167 148
The strongest growth in percentage terms occurs in the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sector from $113m to over $348m value added by 2031 (208%). In terms of growth in value-added, the Business Services sector adds some $873m in contribution to GGP over the next 25 or so years. Strong contributions are made by the Wholesale sector ($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m). However, Business Services takes top spot off Wholesaling as the largest contributor to GDP in the city (at almost $1.8bn), as the structure of the economy moves towards a more business services orientated economy. The high contribution by Wholesale and Retail Trades, Health and Community Services and the Education sector emphasises North Shore’s continuing consumption-led economy. 19
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE The projected targeted business sector performances are highlighted by outlining the value-added, employment and output forecasts for the individual sectors.
3.2.1 VALUE ADDED The targeted business sectors are expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years or so. Table 3-2 highlights the growth in contribution to GDP made by the sectors to 2031. TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
High Technology
NZ$'000
461,177
521,256
587,882
664,254
750,078
852,401
Education
54,668
61,136
68,022
74,908
82,002
89,096
Sports & Performance
61,592
70,580
81,054
92,049
104,529
118,654
1,071,232
1,214,177
1,374,036
1,549,351
1,743,376
1,958,799
Financial & Professional Health
289,942
319,425
349,813
380,140
409,809
437,318
Total (Targeted)
1,938,611
2,186,574
2,460,806
2,760,701
3,089,794
3,456,269
North Shore (Total industry)
7,429,000
8,313,000
9,253,000
10,230,000
11,246,000
12,308,000
26.10%
26.30%
26.59%
26.99%
27.47%
28.08%
Targeted % of North Shore
Growth in these sectors sees their contribution to the total economy grow from 26% to 28% by 2031. The strongest growth is expected to occur in the High Technology sector, with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. The Financial and Business Services sector is projected to grow at 2.44% - these growth rates are in line with the limited survey responses from businesses in these sectors. In total the targeted business sectors are expected to be generating GDP of $3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008.
3.2.2 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Total employment in the targeted business sectors is expected to grow from 23,600 in 2006 to around 36,640 by 2031. The largest sector is Financial and Business Services sector, where growth of more than 7,600 employment opportunities is expected by 2031. TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted) North Shore (Total) Targeted % of North Shore
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
4,245
4,713
5,217
5,790
6,451
7,230
1,083
1,171
1,261
1,346
1,427
1,501
989
1,096
1,211
1,333
1,466
1,612
12,357
13,663
15,071
16,559
18,180
19,962
4,928
5,257
5,584
5,874
6,127
6,333
23,602
25,899
28,345
30,902
33,651
36,638
83,500
95,424
103,413
111,299
119,209
127,150
28.27%
27.14%
27.41%
27.77%
28.23%
28.81%
In total the TBPA sectors under the ‘Future Scenario’ grow from 28.3% of the total North Shore City employment in 2006 to 28.8% by 2031. This implies faster growth here than elsewhere in the economy. The degree to which the 20
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
targeted business sectors dominate the employment profile of the North Shore is highlighted by the preceding table, with almost a third of the labour force being employed in the targeted business sectors. As expected, the relative degree of concentration of the targeted business sectors in terms of employment on the North Shore is expected to remain stable out to 2031 under the ‘Future Scenario’.
3.2.3 GROSS OUTPUT In terms of total economic activity, the targeted business sectors are expected to grow from $3.2bn in Gross Output terms to more than $5.7bn by 2031 (see Table 3-4). As a share of total North Shore activity, the sectors grow from 24.87% to 26.6% by 2031. The share of employment in the targeted business sectors (% of the total North Shore employment base) is expected to remain relatively constant – around a quarter of the employment.
TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted) North Shore (Total industry) Targeted % of North Shore
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
830,880
940,546
1,062,930
1,199,937
1,360,372
1,546,551 109,545
67,187
75,116
83,463
92,017
100,781
116,642
133,053
152,434
173,381
196,936
223,542
1,807,717
2,053,666
2,324,309
2,619,925
2,949,092
3,314,878
378,930
417,425
457,546
496,948
534,910
570,774
3,201,355
3,619,806
4,080,682
4,582,208
5,142,090
5,765,290
12,872,000
14,476,000
16,150,000
17,900,000
19,744,000
21,678,000
24.87%
25.01%
25.27%
25.60%
26.04%
26.60%
The largest growth in output is from the Financial and Professional Services sector, which is expected to continue to dominate the total output of the North Shore (15% of the total and 57% of the targeted business sector total). Between the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors, more than 80% of the targeted business employment is captured (Table 3.3).
3.2.4 OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE The projected value added and output per FTE has been determined based on the information outlined in the preceding sections. The value added per FTE is projected to grow for both the targeted business sectors and the overall North Shore economy. The targeted business value added is projected to increase by $9,808/FTE (a percentage movement of 11.6%) between 2006 and 2031. The growth in productivity is driven by two factors. Firstly, the EFM assumes that in general there is an increase in labour productivity over time. Projections (based on recent trends) indicate an average annual shift of 0.65% per FTE. Secondly the ‘Future Scenario’ sees a higher concentration of employment in high value added sectors, raising the overall average. The anticipated movements and trends in the individual targeted business sectors of the North Shore are summarised in Table 3-5.
21
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2008
2031
High Technology
109,826
117,894
Education
51,411
Sports & Performance Financial & Professional
Movement
% Change
AAGR*
8,068
7.3%
0.31%
59,347
7,936
15.4%
0.63%
63,262
73,618
10,356
16.4%
0.66%
91,135
98,126
6,991
7.7%
0.32%
Health
57,779
11,278
19.5%
0.78%
Total (Targeted)
84,528 94,336 9,808 *AAGR = Average Annual Growth Rate
11.6%
0.48%
69,057
The relative growth and movements in the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors revealed the lowest overall growth in percentage terms but from a much higher base (almost 100% higher in some instances). Therefore the productivity in these sectors in 2031 is still higher than that of the other targeted business sectors. The Health sector is projected to have the largest change (an increase of $11,300 per FTE). The different sectors’ internal characteristics influence the degree to which the value added per FTE can be developed and how the improvements in productivity translate into additional GDP for North Shore overall.
3.2.5 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE The projected changes and movements in the output and value-added of the North Shore economy is directly linked to and informed by the employment structure ie the occupational profile of the area. An additional set of outputs from the EFM model (under the ‘Future Scenario’) is a disaggregation of employment into occupations. The relationship between occupation structure and FTEs is not 1:1, as an FTE may be made up of two part-time workers. However the occupation structure provides a robust way of assessing future skills requirements to achieve the economic structures projected under the ‘Future Scenario’. Table 3-6 reflects the projected occupational structure for the North Shore under this scenario. This table highlights the occupations which are associated with the targeted business sectors. TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE Occupation Projections
OCCUPATIONS 2006
2011
2016
2021
Growth 2026
Rank
Chief Executives, GM's and Legislators
5,217
5,722
6,231
6,746
7,267
7,808
Specialist Managers
10,962
12,024
13,092
14,150
15,207
16,282
2,130
5,320
20
1
Arts and Media Professionals
1,182
1,304
1,435
1,569
1,712
1,865
253
683
6
27
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof.
7,089
7,777
8,478
9,188
9,931
10,706
1,389
3,617
16
2
Design, Engineering, Science & Trans Prof.
3,498
3,877
4,268
4,675
5,110
5,581
770
2,083
3
5
Education Professionals
5,250
5,617
5,984
6,317
6,615
6,869
734
1,619
41
10
Health Professionals
3,603
3,857
4,116
4,352
4,566
4,751
513
1,148
40
15
ICT Professionals
3,006
3,321
3,655
4,004
4,379
4,783
649
1,777
4
7
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
1,866
2,038
2,218
2,400
2,585
2,777
352
911
19
21
Engineering, ICT and Science Tech's
2,199
2,422
2,643
2,872
3,112
3,356
444
1,157
14
14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades Workers
1,161
1,307
1,456
1,602
1,746
1,895
295
734
2
26
Health and Welfare Support Workers
576
624
673
728
781
829
97
253
30
39
Carers and Aides
2,241
2,409
2,582
2,745
2,896
3,035
341
794
38
24
Sports and Personal Service Workers
1,923
2,117
2,317
2,518
2,727
2,956
394
1,033
10
18
Total Other Occupations
51,015
55,752
60,499
65,241
69,975
74,659
9,484
23,644
Total Employment
87,549
95,638
103,617
111,492
119,381
127,303
16,068
39,754
22
20062031 2,591
18
Growth
20062016 1,014
Source: North Shore Economic Futures Model
2031
%
3
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
In total, the ‘Future Scenario’ sees approximately 127,000 FTEs by 2031 working on the North Shore. This represents growth of some 39,800 from the 2006 position (46% growth). Total occupations in North Shore businesses increase at approximately the same rate (a 47% increase from 101,000 to 148,000). The most significant growth in occupation occurs in the Hospitality sector where in total 68% more workers are required by 2031 than in 2006. This again points to the consumption base of the North Shore economy, and is driven strongly by local population growth and increases in consumption per household. However, in terms of percentage growth the next greatest increases are expected in: • •
Electronic Technology and Telecommunications workers (63%), Design, Engineering, Science and Transport professionals (60%),
• •
ICT professionals (59%), and Arts and Media professionals (58%).
These are key occupations for the city’s targeted business sectors, and are required in large numbers in order for the North Shore economy to achieve even the ‘Future Scenario’. In terms of actual numbers the most growth is required in Specialist Managers, with the economy requiring a further 5,300 by 2031. This is followed by Business and Marketing professionals (3,620), CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and Design and Engineering professionals (2,080). Significant growth in the Health and Education professions is required, with an additional 1,150 and 1,620 workers respectively to meet the growth needs of the city. In addition, ageing of the current workforce that is potentially uneven across different occupation groups is likely to intensify the requirements in certain areas (notably in the health professions). A full set of occupations associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ growth future is included in Appendix 4.1.
3.3 BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS During the initial stage of this project, an internet-based survey was carried out to inform the ‘Future Scenario’ with information provided by businesses of actual growth and future employment intentions for the next five and 10-year periods. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to businesses on Enterprise North Shore’s mailing list, and links to the website were published in the Enterprise magazine. As of July 2008 end, the response has been limited. In total, around 100 surveys have been completed sufficiently to draw useful information on certain key sectors. Therefore the key points drawn from the survey and described below must be treated with some caution. They have been included to add context to the ‘Future Scenario’ outputs, rather than as a means to either calibrate or verify these outputs. In the long term it is anticipated that alternative forms of data collection from North Shore businesses will provide sufficient information to calibrate the near term outlook from the model.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
KEY POINTS FROM THE SURVEY
8
•
ICT sector respondents are anticipating more than 100% growth over the next five years and are anticipating the industry to be 10 times its current size in 10 year’s time.
• •
Strong growth is expected in the Health sector (61% in five years) and Business Services (47% in five years). ICT sector generates the largest share of sales from exports of all groups, with 22% of revenue generated from export activities – a breakdown of the location of the sector’s revenue generation by area is reflected in Figure 3-1. Financial and Business Services also report strong international earnings, with some 17% of sales from
•
overseas. This is followed by the Manufacturing sector at 16%. The Education and Health sectors are (unsurprisingly) strongly focused on local demand, with 85% and 31% of
•
sales respectively drawn from North Shore City. The Financial and Business Service sector provides significant services to the rest of the Auckland region, with 24% of sales drawn from there (although response in this category is low so this interpretation of data may not be truly representative).
•
•
North Shores’s manufacturing sector looks to be particularly strongly linked into the rest of the Auckland region – providing intermediate inputs into further processing and final demand. In total 37% of its sales are to the rest of the Auckland region. Most industries are linked strongly with other businesses in North Shore City for their purchases (50% or more of upstream purchases), with the exception of Manufacturing where only 5% of purchases are made locally – see Figure 3-2. Imports are particularly high for the Manufacturing sector, accounting for some 64% of total
•
intermediate inputs. North Shores’s Education sector is strongly linked with the rest of the New Zealand economy, with the highest share of purchases made outside of Auckland region (31%). This is most likely to be the purchase of central government services.
FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA)
8
CAVEAT: The observations and implications identified from the survey are from a severely limited number of
responses and are indicative only. 24
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS
3.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights the potential the targeted business sectors have within the North Shore economy to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to city households through wealth creation and employment opportunities under a ‘no change’ outlook. Even so, the ‘Future Scenario’ projection highlights strong growth for the North Shore economy. Significant additional value added is generated in the city, and significant growth in local employment is foreshadowed even before the effects of attraction policies and targeted business assistance is incorporated. The modelling highlights significant growth in particular occupations required to sustain the output growth, and this information can be used to help inform planning for education and training programmes at the city’s tertiary institutes. However, it is also clear that the future will not be as indicated under the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions, meaning agencies such as Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council have a significant role to play in facilitating growth in these key sectors by ensuring the conditions for investment in the city are appropriate and that issues such as access to skilled labour and other key factors of production are eased. In order to quantify a likely or optimal future work needs, work needs to be done with businesses to tease out the actual potential inherent in North Shore as a location for these key industry groups, and issues or threats to growth they see.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW 4 MODEL OUTCOMES This section describes the ‘Future Scenario’ based on disaggregating the total North Shore economy into 48 economic sectors. In essence, this scenario forms the baseline for assessing the potential impacts of the interventions in the North Shore context. It is stressed that while 48 sectors are used in this scenario, the priority sectors and the accompanying baseline figures have been presented in the preceding section and are not repeated. The primary focus of this section is on the trends and movements in the 48 sectors within the broader environment. The ‘Future Scenario’ as presented in this section concentrates on the North Shore City’s ‘internal’ dynamics. In other words the external environment, which influences the economic activity of the North Shore City, is not included in the discussion but has been incorporated in the modelling activities. This external environment is interpreted as relating to the regional economy (broader Auckland region) and the national (New Zealand) economy. The approach is primarily quantitative in nature and the future inclusion of a qualitative component could translate into a deeper understanding of the interactions and implications ie improve the degree to which local idiosyncrasies are handled in the modelling – the outcomes of the business surveys are used to shed light on these implications. However, the findings of the business survey have been included in the interpretation of the model. The parameters used for the ‘Future Scenario’ modelling, included: • •
The timeframe for this assessment is 2006-2031, with five-year intervals. The two main drivers of future demand9 used in the analysis are: o o
•
Households, Exports – both international and inter-regional.
The economic output, value-added and employment (FTEs) are defined as the outcomes in terms of the modelling and are discussed in the final parts of the section.
For the purposes of the ‘Future Scenario’, it is assumed that there will be no supply constraints inhibiting the ability of the North Shore economy to produce the outputs necessary to meet future demands (eg. shortages of business-zoned land, transportation deficiencies etc). It is further assumed that there will be no major changes in the structure of the North Shore or New Zealand economies over the study period. This means that current economic intra- and interdependencies, supply chain processes and overall production profile will remain constant.
4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS The demand conditions and components are regarded as ‘drivers’ of the North Shore economy and the following provides an indication of the relative movements and trends in these demand components. As indicated earlier, three elements have been included in the demand/driver part of the model – population, gross fixed capital formation and exports. Population and export performance are discussed in the following sections. Detailed tables containing the data used in the discussions are presented in the Appendices. Only highlights and key observations around the
9 The Economic Futures Model is a demand-driven model, the majority of the assumptions necessary to formulate a scenario pertain to hypothetical levels of future demand for North Shore’s goods and services. The model furthermore includes gross fixed capital information in the calculations but the results of this element is not included in the main discussion.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
different components are discussed with extracts of the data underscoring presented in the text. Where suitable a sectoral approach has been retained to illustrate the trends in economic sectors.
4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’ As part of the ‘Future Scenario’, the population trends have been modelled as the population characteristics influence the potential consumer demand for goods and services (key demand segment in the economy). Additionally the population size provides an indication of potentially economic active population or the labour force. The following figures (Figure 4.1 to Figure 4.5) reflect the population pyramid for the North Shore based on the ‘Future Scenario’ of different periods. Figure 4.6 indicates the population growth rates (average annual growth rate) of the individual age cohorts between 2011 and 2031).
FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021
FIGURE 4-2: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2011
FIGURE 4-3: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2031
FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
The population pyramid indicates the expected distribution of the population over different age categories and the Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR between the 2011-2031 period). Figure 4-4 illustrates the relative growth rates for the different age categories, and it is evident that the higher age cohorts are expected to grow faster than the younger age categories. For example, all the age categories over 65 years are expected to grow the fastest. The average annual growth rates for these age categories range between 2.5% to >5%. In contrast; the younger age categories are growing comparatively slower, with the 0-29 year segment growing at less than 1%p.a. It is important 27
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
to note that the growth rates expressed in Figure 4-4 are influenced by the relative base from where the movements are calculated – with the older categories reflecting high growth but from small bases. The shift in the age profile – with the associated decline in the labour force – has implications for both the demand and the supply side of the economy. On the supply side, the productive activities will be influenced by the availability of labour (through the labour market and a smaller labour pool) and hence, the (un)availability of labour can be interpreted as a constraint limiting the total output. Apart from the labour element of the population, the community is a key component of the economy – the consumer. As the consumer base ages, the expenditure profiles change, with lower levels of expenditure by the higher age categories.
4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES The North Shore economy is influenced by the relative performance of the export industries in the local area. Put differently, the relative performance of the exportfocused industries influences the aggregate performance of the local economy. The shifts in the export market (expressed as the average annual growth rate) and the size of the sectoral exports (volume in terms of NZ Dollar) is used as an indicator of the performance of the export sector. An overview of the approach followed to determine the volume and growth rates is presented in Envelope 4.1.
ENVELOPE 4.1: DESCRIPTION OF THE APPROACH FOLLOWED Quantitative estimates of export growth on an industry-by-industry basis were developed using time series analysis of commodity outputs taken from SNZ’s Harmonised System (HS). Given that this data is only available at the national level, rather than by source region, it was necessary to assume that national export trends were representative of regional export trends. Future estimates of physical commodity exports were determined in two steps. Firstly, the HS data was aggregated from 13,000 commodities into a single homogenous commodity per industry. This was undertaken for every year covering the period 1988 to 2005. Secondly, the trends in each industry were determined through time series analysis. For those industries involving intangible exports (i.e. primarily services), future estimates were assumed to equate to FTE growth rates in each industry. The FTE growth rates were determined from a time series analysis covering the 1987 to 2005 period.
The outcome of the exercise is described in the subsequent sections. The relative sizes of the various industries are dealt with first, and the long run growth rates are discussed in the subsequent sections. 4.1.2.1 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – SIZE (VALUE) The export industries and the relative value of the exports - current and future - are presented in Table 4.1. The North Shore City’s exports are generally concentrated (by value) with the top 10 exporting industries ranging from Businesses Services to Basic Metals Manufacturing. The proportional contribution (in value) of the top 10 industries in percentage terms to the export economy is illustrated in Figure 4.5. These 10 sectors account for 67.7% of the total exports of the North Shore economy. However, if the top 10 industries are aggregated into generic production sectors, it becomes evident that 48% (of the top 10 sectors) is manufacturing-based. These five manufacturing sectors account for 32.4% of total North Shore City exports.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING Sector Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manufacturing Dairy prod manufacturing Other food manufacturing Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing Textile & apparel manufacturing Wood prod manufacturing Paper & paper prod manufacturing Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing Basic metal manufacturing Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing Trans equipment manufacturing Machinery & equipment manufacturing Furniture & other manufacturing Electricity generation & supply Gas supply Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
$2006m 4.32 0.01 0.02 0.24 0.72 0.55 0.02 0.62 47.67 38.75 2.21 52.97 17.14 21.42 4.42 13.57 40.77 2.37 46.75 42.96 25.05 92.38 15.49 0.00 4.13 83.11 34.22 44.26 8.17 41.74 87.45 17.98 2.38 0.75 1.45 2.32 49.36 0.33 0.05 0.01 0.26 16.16 5.44
Ranking 24 41 40 37 44 32 34 39 45 33 6 12 29 4 17 15 23 20 11 27 7 9 14 1 19 43 46 47 25 3 13 8 21 10 2 16 26 31 30 28 5 35 38 42 36 18 22
2031 ($2006m) 3.98 0.01 0.02 0.09 1.01 0.64 0.01 1.19 141.16 109.66 6.45 55.46 20.03 23.64 4.81 13.27 39.89 2.16 54.88 66.10 28.73 360.44 17.36 0.00 19.70 128.59 78.28 217.32 7.80 40.29 167.69 15.39 2.18 0.57 3.49 1.44 177.51 0.32 0.05 44.12 11.60 123.13
Source: Market Economics Limited – North Shore Economic Futures Model
29
Ranking 28 42 40 38 44 34 35 41 44 33 5 8 26 11 19 18 27 23 16 31 12 10 17 1 21 43 44 44 20 6 9 2 25 15 4 22 30 36 29 32 44 3 37 39 14 24 7
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$
Source: Market Economics Limited Calculations
A sectoral breakdown of the value of goods and services exported by the businesses located in the city is presented in Appendix 4.2. Apart from the large export sectors, highlighted in the preceding, the North Shore economy provides a variety of services and goods to markets beyond its borders. The exports under the ‘Future Scenario’ provide an indication of the interface of the North Shore economy with the broader region, and the growth in exports is highlighted in the following section. 4.1.2.2 EXPORTING SECTORS - TRENDS The ‘Future Scenario’ for the export sector is informed by historic trends and interactions with other economic sectors (as built into the model). The growth rates associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ indicates the rate of change for the different sectors. However the base from which change is expected to occur has to be taken into consideration ie the relative size from where growth is recorded must be considered. The following figure summarises growth rates of the value of exports from different sectors. The projected growth rates are indicative and are subject to a wide range of external variables, such as exchange rate volatility, market shifts and the interest environment. Therefore the growth rates are a reflection of the underlying, long terms trends in each industry/sector. Based on the AAGR in the value of exports, the sector that is expected to have the strongest growth is Education, with projected growth in excess of 250% between 2006 and 2011. The second strongest growth is expected in the Health and Community Services sector – 44%. Appendix 4.3 outlines the projected growth rates in export values per sector over the selected periods. The main observations10 from the future growth rates include: •
Continued growth by the education sector – this sector’s expected rate of growth is significantly (refer to Figure 4-6 for an illustration of the scale) higher than others in the short term and is furthermore also one of the highest
10
Note that not all the movements and trends are listed. For an indication of the movements in the individual sectors,
the reader is referred to Appendix 4.3 30
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
growth rates in the medium to long term. This is likely to be driven by North Shore City’s continued attractiveness to foreign students - note that this growth comes off a small base. In dollar terms the growth in this sector is estimated to be more than $44m over the time period. FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011*
* - This is only one of the periods investigated – Refer to Appendix 4.3 for the AAGR of the other periods
Source: Based on Market Economic Limited calculations •
The Business Services sector is expected continue to develop its market presence and the value of this sector’s exports is forecast to grow in excess of 5% on an average annual basis. Similarly the services to the Financial and Insurance sectors are also expected to continue to grow at approximately 3.6% in the long term. In total this sector’s exports are expected to increase by $128 between 2006 and 2031.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
Expansion in the value of food-related manufactured goods exported is forecast to continue at more than 2% per
•
annum for all periods under review – the value of the export growth is projected to be $71m. Strong growth in retail trade and accommodation, restaurant and bars is expected. These sectors are expected to
•
expand on an average annual basis of between 3.0% and 8.3%. The manufacturing sub-sector, (industries associated with this sub-sector include paper and paper products, petroleum & industrial chemicals, rubber, plastic and other chemicals, non-metallic mineral product and basic metal manufacturing) is expected to remain relatively stable with a marginal contraction.
•
The machinery and equipment manufacturing sector’s export is expected to grow at approximately 5.7% (AAGR) over the medium to long term. This translates into an increase in export of $268m between 2006 and 2031.
•
The transportation (road, rail and water) sector’s export is expected to remain relatively stable in terms of value, with a marginal contraction (ranging between 0.1% and 0.2% on an average annual basis). In contrast, the sectors providing services to the transportation activities are expected to expand to by approximately 2.6% per annum.
The preceding figure is only indicative of the first period’s expected sectoral growth rates. As mentioned earlier, the expected growth rates for the different sectors for the various periods are presented in Appendix 4.3. The following section presents an overview of the economic outputs of the North Shore economy.
4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS The way in which the North Shore economy combines the production factors and inputs (as discussed in the preceding section) results in a range of economic outputs. The overall output of economic activity in North Shore City, as informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, is outlined in the following section by discussing each individual sectors’ gross output, value-added and employment (Full Time Equivalents or FTEs).
4.2.1 GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS Gross Output is broadly defined as the total value of the transactions ie sales of the producing businesses during a specific period. However this indicator includes the value of intermediate goods and services utilised during the production process. Similarly gross output includes the flow (value) of goods and services relating to government services and households. Appendix 4.3 contains the detailed tables regarding the gross output of the North Shore City economy and an extract of the information (showing the largest sectors, by output) is contained in Table 4.2. This table also provides an indication of: • •
The projected output. The ranking of the sectors.
• •
The percentage change in output. The average annual growth rate of output for the 2006-2031 period.
The shading used in the table is indicative of the relative movement in the ranking of the largest 15 sectors by output over time. A red shading means the sector declined in terms of the relative importance, yellow means the ranking remained stable and a green shading means the sector increased in terms of its importance.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS SECTOR
PROJECTED OUTPUT1 2006
RANK
2031
2
2006
2031
4
%Δ 2006-313
AAGR 2006-31
Wholesale trade
1898
3020
1
1
59.1%
1.9%
Business Services
1515
3014
2
2
98.9%
2.8%
Owner-occupied dwellings
1026
1524
3
4
48.5%
1.6%
Communication Services
898
1347
4
5
50.0%
1.6%
Construction
887
1686
5
3
90.1%
2.6%
Retail trade
818
1298
6
6
58.7%
1.9%
Real estate
675
1073
7
7
59.0%
1.9%
Health & community Services
503
761
8
8
51.3%
1.7%
Central government
405
605
9
10
49.4%
1.6%
Education
322
525
10
11
63.0%
2.0%
Insurance
320
482
11
12
50.6%
1.7%
Printing, publishing & recorded media
280
461
12
13
64.6%
2.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manuf.
270
368
13
16
36.3%
1.2%
Services to finance & investment
223
346
14
18
55.2%
1.8%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
215
662
16
9
207.9%
4.6%
215
344
16
19
60.0%
1.9%
th
Finance (joint 15 ) 1 = In NZ$m 2004 3 = Percentage Change 2006-2031
Key to shading
2 = Ranked in terms of size of the output in NZ$ 4 = Average Annual Growth Rate
Down
Stable
Up
The output of the largest 15 sectors presented in the preceding table includes owner occupied dwellings as well as the central government sector. The owner-occupied dwellings output is generally referred to as imputed rent11 and while included, debate around the inclusion or exclusion of this sector is ongoing. The comparatively high value of imputed rent as an output in the table implies that the residential component of North Shore City plays an important role in the North Shore City economic context ie the city fulfils a significant residential function. Table 4-2 summarises the gross output of the various economic sectors and ranks the outputs for each different period. With reference to the rankings, under the ‘Future Scenario’, it is clear that the overall structure of the economy (in terms of output) remains relatively stable, with the contribution of individual sectors to economy remaining virtually unchanged. This is inherent in any scenario, as alternative futures relying on alternative policy and attraction settings are not part of the base line. The main observations regarding the rankings are: •
The continued importance of the wholesale trade and business services in the North Shore context. These two sectors made up12 approximately a fifth (20%) of the total output in 2006 and are expected to account for a quarter (25%) of the output in 2031.
11
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States defines imputed rent is an imputation for the net rental income of owner-occupied housing. It is based on the assumption that owner-occupants are in the rental business and that they are renting the houses in which they live to themselves: As tenants, they pay rent to the landlords (that is, to themselves); as landlords, they collect rent from their tenants (that is, from themselves), they incur expenses, and they may have a profit or a loss from the rental business. 12 The proportions mentioned here is if the imputed rent is included in the total output. If imputed rent is excluded, the share of the output captured by these two sectors is calculated as 24.6% and 27.2% for 2006 and 2031 respectively.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The increasing contribution to the North Shore economy by the manufacturing of machinery and equipment – up th
th
from 16 to 9 position in terms of gross output – highlights the need to focus attention on the stimulation of this sector as a potential growth and niche sector. •
The composition of the top 15 industries is expected to remain stable under the ‘Future Scenario’ with the Services to finance and investment- and the finance- sectors falling out of the top 15.
•
The sectors, which entered the top 15 sectors, were the dairy products manufacturing and the cultural and recreational services sectors.
•
The relative concentration of the economy around the top 15 sectors is expected to increase under the ‘Future Scenario’. In 2006, the largest 15 sectors contributed 68.9% to the economic output which is expected to increase to 72.4% by 2031.
The gross output of the North Shore economy is only one dimension, and the discussion of the ‘Future Scenario’ is supplemented by an investigation of the value being added locally by the economic activity described above.
4.2.2 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS In contrast to gross output which captures total value of all transactions, the value added component of economic activity focuses on the value created throughout the value chain. The value added projections for the North Shore City economy are discussed in the subsequent section by; 1) Focusing on the overall size of the value added. 2) The projected growth in value added per sector. Value added is an indicator of the size of local business activity and its contribution to the overall wealth of the city as it excludes the value of intermediate goods and services used during the production process. This indicator shows the degree to which the local businesses utilise labour, capital and entrepreneurship to create value excluding inputs and intermediate goods. Appendix 4.5 contains detailed tables relating to the value added per sector in terms of: •
The projected value added per sector.
• •
The proportional contribution per sector to the total value added. The relative ranking (per period) in terms of size of value added.
Extracts from the mentioned appendix are presented in Table 4-3 and used as the basis for highlighting the value added profile in the North Shore City. From the table, a central observation is the rise of the business services sector to become the largest value added sector, replacing the wholesale trade sector (in terms of value added). While not reflected in the table (see Appendix 4.5), this shift occurs in the short term ie between 2006 and 2011. The value added produced by the business services sector is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8%, which is the third fastest in the North Shore City after the machinery and equipment manufacturing and the dairy product manufacturing sectors – projected to grow at 4.6% and 3.5% respectively. The business services sector contributes13 approximately 12% to the North Shore value added(2006) and is expected to contribute more than 14% in 2031 based on the ‘Future Scenario’.
13
This proportional contribution is if imputed rent associated with the owner-occupied dwellings is included.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS Value Added [$2004million]
SECTORS
2006 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.
Wholesale trade Business services Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Communication services Real estate Health & community services Construction Central government Education Insurance Finance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Personal & other community services Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational services Key to shading
894 883 843 559 557 538 387 340 272 262 204 193 182 134 115 113 109
%Δ 2006-31
2031
2006-31
1423 1756 1252 887 836 856 586 647 406 427 307 309 248 221 198 348 213 Down
59.2% 98.9% 48.5% 58.7% 50.1% 59.1% 51.4% 90.3% 49.3% 63.0% 50.5% 60.1% 36.3% 64.9% 72.2% 208.0% 95.4%
Ranking 2006
% Share
2031
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Stable
2 1 3 4 6 5 8 7 10 9 13 12 14 15 17 11 16
AAGR
2006
2031
12.0% 11.9% 11.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 5.2% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
11.6% 14.3% 10.2% 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% 4.8% 5.3% 3.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 1.7% Up
20062031 1.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 2.0% 2.2% 4.6% 2.7%
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited calculations
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, value added is generated by a limited number of sectors and Figure 4-7 illustrates the aggregate contribution of the largest value adding sectors for three groupings ie the largest three, five and 10 sectors (excluding owner-occupied dwellings and based on the industry totals excluding final demand components). With reference to the top 10 value adding sectors (see Table 4.3 and Appendix 4.5 for a breakdown of these sectors), these sectors account for or represent FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS approximately 75% (three quarters) of total value added in the North Shore economy. However over the long term (until 2031), a marginal decline in the total share is expected ie declining from 74.3% in 2006 to 73.5% in 2031. The top five value adding sectors and their contribution to the economy is expected to remain stable at around 52.1%. The three largest value adding sectors account for 35% of the total value added in the North Shore. Further, the
80%
74.3% 74.3% 73.5%
70% 60% 52.1% 52.0% 52.1%
50% 40%
35.5% 35.9% 36.8%
30% 20% 10% 0% Top 10
Top 5 2006
relative contribution is expected to increase under the ‘Future Scenario’
2016
Top 3
2031
from 35.5% to 36.8% between 2006 and 2031. This implies that the economy is expected to become increasingly concentrated and more reliant on the largest value added generating sectors to provide wealth. The level of diversification or concentration of an economy can be measured by the Tress index14 and the projected Tress Index for the North Shore in terms of value added is: 14
A Tress index of zero represents a totally diversified economy and a higher index (maximum is 100) represents a highly concentrated economy. Generally, the higher the level of concentration in an economy, the more the area is dependant on a small number of sectors. This feature makes
35
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
NORTH SHORE CITY – TRESS INDEX: VALUE ADDED 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
75.19
75.14
75.21
75.21
75.23
75.20
The North Shore economy, under the ‘Future Scenario’, is expected to experience a marginal increase in the level of concentration as expressed by the Tress Index. While the business service sector’s increased contribution to the share of the value added (from 11.9% in 2006 to 14.3% in 2031) furthered the increasing concentration, it is not the primary driver of this increase. Overall the increase in Tress Index is expected to be marginal and not a significant departure from the underlying structure. However the Tress index of 75 indicates that the North Shore economy is not fully diversified and is potentially exposed to external shocks. The following section discusses the employment needs of the North Shore economy under the ‘Future Scenario’.
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS Labour is a key production factor and is a requirement for all business activities. The employment requirements (expressed in terms of full time equivalents – FTEs) of the economy under the ‘Future Scenario’ are outlined in the following section. Emphasis is on the total employment pool and the key sectors (out of the 48 sectors) as identified in the preceding sections. Figure 4-8 reflects total projected FTEs in the North Shore City economy under the ‘Future Scenario’. The total number of FTEs required in the economy is expected to increase from approximately 87,500 FTEs in 2006 to 127,150 in 2031. This translates into a percentage movement of 45.2% and an average annual growth rate (2006-2031) of 1.50%. This is behind the projected population growth projections for the 2006-2011 period but faster than the projected population growth for the 2011-2016 and onward periods. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS The projected rate at which the FTEs grow during the 2006-2031 period is not linear and the rate of growth is expected to slow down. The rates at which the total FTEs are expected to grow during the different timeframes are:
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000
•
2006-11
1.74%
• •
2011-16 2016-21
1.62% 1.48%
• •
2021-26 2026-31
1.38% 1.30%.
60,000 40,000 20,000 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Apart from total employment, the composition of the labour force (as employed in terms of FTEs) will change as economic structure shifts. Appendix 4.6 details the projected FTE employment levels by sector and Figure 4-9 presents the FTE profile. The business services sector offers the largest number of employment opportunities in the North Shore City economy, accounting for approximately 12,650 FTEs (14.5% of the total FTEs) in 2006 and expected to expand to an estimated 21,400 FTEs by 2031. This sector is also a key driver of the total change in employment growth, accounting for 22.1% of total FTE growth (between 2006 and 2031) in North Shore City. The the economy more vulnerable to exogenous shocks and variables such as adverse climatic conditions, commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate exposures, etc.
36
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
employment structure of the North Shore City economy is dominated by a number of sectors and under the ‘Future Scenario’, this structure is not expected to change in any considerable way. Key employment sectors, both current and future, are: •
The Business Services, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade sectors (the three largest sectors) accounted for 40.5% of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 –rising to 41.1% in 2031.
•
In addition to these three sectors, the Health and Community, and the Construction sectors captured a further 15% of the FTEs. In total, the five largest sectors by FTEs utilised 55.9% of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 and is
•
expected to employ 56.5% of the FTEs by 2031. The 10 largest sectors by FTE utilisation occupy more than three quarters (approximately 76% for all periods between 2006 and 2031).
In terms of the employment structure (proportion of FTEs per sector), no significant changes are expected under the ‘Future Scenario’. The three largest sectors (by FTE) are expected to remain stable, with only a selected number of ‘positional changes’. Figure 4.11 reflects the employment structure, and the dominance of the employment by the sectors mentioned above is clearly evident. The changes in ranking over time of employment sectors are illustrated in Table 4-4. TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Business services
1
1
1
1
1
1
Retail trade
2
2
2
2
2
2
Wholesale trade
3
3
3
3
3
3
Health & community services
4
5
5
5
5
5
Construction
5
4
4
4
4
4
Education
6
6
6
6
6
6
Central government
7
7
7
7
7
7
Communication services
8
8
8
8
8
9
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
9
9
9
9
9
8
Personal & other community services
10
10
10
10
10
11
Real estate
11
11
11
12
12
13
Printing, publishing & recorded media
12
12
13
14
14
14
Cultural & recreational services
13
13
14
13
13
12
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
14
14
12
11
11
Key to shading
Down
10
Stable
Up
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited Calculations
Apart from overall stability in the rankings with minor positional changes as indicated in the table, the only other significant observations in the rankings are: •
The strong growth (and increased share of FTEs) being captured by the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sector. This sector’s share of employment increased from 1.7% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2031. Further, the sector’s th
th
strong FTE growth resulted in the sectors relative (expected) position moving from 14 in 2006 to 10 in 2031. This is also the highest number of positions moved by any sector. •
th
The Cultural and Recreational Service sector’s position varied and is projected to be approximately 12 by 2031. 37
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The Real Estate industry is expected to move two positions down between 2006 and 2031, and is projected to end th
in 13 position by 2031. FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE) 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Basic metal manuf
2006
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Business svcs Central government Communication svcs Construction Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf Education Electricity generation & supply Finance Fishing Forestry & logging Furniture & other manuf Gas supply Health & community svcs Horticulture & fruit growing Insurance Livestock & cropping farming Local government Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf Mining & quarrying Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Oil & gas exploration & extraction Other farming Other food manuf Owner-occupied dwellings Paper & paper prod manuf Personal & other community svcs Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Retail trade Road trans Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Svcs to finance & investment Textile & apparel manuf Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wholesale trade Wood prod manuf
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
38
2031
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
From the preceding discussions it is evident that the sector which dominates the FTE profile of the North Shore is the Business Services sector. Additionally the Retail and Wholesale trades and the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sectors also play important roles in the North Shore City FTE profile. Under the ‘Future Scenario’, these sectors will have an increasingly important role in the North Shore economy and the ability/capacity of available employment to fulfil industry needs is of vital importance. One indicator that is used to determine whether a region is self-sufficient in supplying its own needs is the Simple Location Quotient (SLQ) 15. Table 4.5 presents an extract of SLQ for the industries based on the FTEs, with the complete list of SLQ for all the sectors presented in Appendix 4.7. TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1) SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Insurance
2.82
2.83
2.83
2.83
2.84
2.84
Communication services
2.46
2.44
2.43
2.41
2.4
2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
1.89
1.86
1.83
1.81
1.78
1.76
Wholesale trade
1.86
1.85
1.84
1.83
1.82
1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.64
Services to finance & investment
1.48
1.47
1.46
1.45
1.44
1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.45
Real estate
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
Central government
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.45
Business services
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
Retail trade
1.22
1.23
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
Construction
1.09
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
Personal & other community services
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.97
0.98
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.04
Sectors with high SLQ are typically (but not always) export-oriented sectors, which imply that these sectors bring capital into the region in contrast to circulating existing capital in the region (as most retail stores and restaurants do). Sectors which have both high SLQ and relatively high total job numbers typically form the strongest components of a region’s employment base and offer the greatest opportunities for growth of a region’s wealth, as they are often the result of a comparative or competitive advantage the region has - either as a result of natural or human factors.
4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL A significant volume of information and data has been presented in earlier sections and it is possible to combine the information in a way that informs North Shore’s future development path in terms of selecting sectors for intervention. The following assessment provides a high level indication of the likely development potential and implications for the main sectors. The approach followed, using a ‘shift-share framework’, enables the identification of emerging and declining sectors. A concise discussion of the shift share framework and its implications is presented in Envelope 4.2. As part of the shift share framework, the Simple Location Quotient is used and is augmented by the use of; 15 The location quotient is a commonly utilised analytical tool that compares the local economy to a reference economy, in the process attempting to identify specialisations in the local economy. The location quotient technique is based upon a calculated ratio between the local economy and the economy of some reference unit. The formula associated with the SLQ has been presented earlier in the document.
39
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
1) The size of the sector in terms of jobs,. 2) The percent change in SLQ over a given time period. The interpretation is oriented toward the North Shore City employment (FTE) situation and it is important to realise that the occupational growth and decline in employment is linked to the trends and performances of the different sectors employing the workers. The sectoral SLQs are linked to the projected movements over time. The modelling that has been completed included different timeframes ie to determine the medium term outlook for different sectors. In addition - by using SLQs - the relationship between each individual local sector, the aggregate North Shore economy, the New Zealand individual sector and the New Zealand economy ensures that both industry (sectoral) dynamics and broader economic relationships are captured. ENVELOPE 4.2: SHIFT SHARE FRAMEWORK The shift share framework used in this analysis of the employment (FTE) structure and the associated trends employs a quadrant approach. A location in one of the 4 respective quadrants has different implications from an analytical perspective. The specific location is determined by indexing the SLQ and the movements in the SLQ over time. A sector in the upper right quadrant (Quadrant I) is more concentrated in the region than average, and also is becoming more concentrated over time. These sectors are “standouts” that distinguish the regional economy and are doing so more every year—and they are especially important if they are also large in terms of jobs. Large sectors in this quadrant are both important and high performing, which means they will have increasing workforce demand. Small industries in this quadrant are emerging, high-potential regional export industries that should be developed further. The lower right quadrant (Quadrant II) contains sectors which are not yet as concentrated in the region as they are at the national (or the relevant benchmark) level, but are becoming more concentrated over time. If they continue this trend, they will eventually move across the horizontal axis into the upper right-hand quadrant. These sectors are referred to as “preemergent” sectors, having the potential to contribute more to the region’s economic base. The upper left quadrant (Quadrant III) contains sectors that are more concentrated in reference region than average, but whose concentration is declining. If a mid-size or large sector is in this quadrant, it is an important warning that the region is losing an important part of its export base and should form planning and investment priorities accordingly. If the region does not bolster these sectors or replace them with other export industries, it will likely enter a general decline in these sectors (and possibly a loss of these sectors). A large occupation in this quadrant usually indicates that the major sector employing people in that occupation is in decline. Finally, the lower left quadrant (Quadrant IV) contains sectors which are less important regionally (the reference economy) than nationally (benchmark economy) and are also declining in employment. If a large proportion of the local sectors are located in this quadrant it could be a warning sign that the region needs to attract more businesses in those industries in order to maintain an economy that is sufficiently balanced and diversified in comparison to the national economy. GRAPHICAL ILLUSTRATION 2.50 Key sector (Future labour demand)
Caution
2.00
1.50 Potential intervention required
Q L 1.00 S
IV
I
III
II
Export potential
Caution “Pre-emergent”
0.50 Potential intervention required
0.00 -15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
% Movement in SLQ
40
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The shift share figures for the North Shore City economy are presented based on the approach outlined in the envelope above. The actual figures resulting from the shift share analysis are presented in Appendix 4.7 which also contains information relating to the shift share including a complete list of the variables at five-year intervals. The Appendix also contains figures reflecting the comparative position of the various sectors. A summary of the shift share analysis is presented in Figure 4-10 to assist with the interpretation vis-a-vis the individual sector’s position in the shift share framework. FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE) Communication svcs Furniture & other manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment Wholesale trade
Business svcs Central government Construction Insurance Personal & other community svcs Retail trade
Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Insurance Personal & other community svcs
1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20
IV I
1.00 Accommodation, restaurants0.80 & bars Basic metal manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 0.60 Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf 0.40 Electricity generation & supply Finance 0.20 Fishing Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming 0.00 Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf -15.0% Other farming Other food manuf Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Road trans Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wood prod manuf
Textile & apparel manuf
III II
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Basic metal manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Finance
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Education Forestry & logging Health & community svcs Local government Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Textile & apparel manuf
Note: The actual shift share figures from which this summary has been derived are presented in Appendix 4.7
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, overall importance of each individual sectors’ FTE structure and SLQ is not expected to experience any significant movements or shifts. The importance of the Business Services sector as a key sector is underlined by the preceding assessments and this expected to remain the case. The size of this sector relative to the North Shore economy as a whole implies that its labour force requirements (and its ability to attract labour) is of vital importance for the future wellbeing of both the sector and the economy overall. Similarly the sector’s skills requirements (ie labour quality) are a core issue. Other sectors which have similar features and which are located in Quadrant I include: • •
Insurance, Personal & other Community Services,
• •
Real Estate , and Printing, Publishing & Recorded Media17.
16
16
Moved into Q1 over time
17
Moved into Q1 over time 41
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
A possible reason for the relative importance of the Central Government sector on the North Shore could be attributed to the location of the Defence Forces in Devonport and some of the central government offices (such as Child, Youth & Family offices in Takapuna) as well as other government functions in business nodes throughout North Shore City. It should be noted that specific services delivered by these government agencies could have a focus that is wider than a purely North Shore area (for example, the Naval Base at Devonport). However the location of central government agencies (in North Shore City) plays an important role in the local economy through the occupation of space, and through local multiplier effects through linkages with supporting industries and institutions (such as back office and IT support services). FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES 3.5 0
3.00 Comm Srvs
3.0 0
2.50
Ins urance Business svcs
Ret ail t rad e
2.5 0
2.00 Rubber, pl astic & other chem manuf
W-Sal e Tr ade
2.0 0
1.50 C entral government Con struction
1.00
Furniture& other manuf
Health & co mm svcs
Accom, resta. & bar s
0.5 0 Educati on
Person al & ot her comm svcs
0.00 - 2.0%
-1.0%
0.0 0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-2 .0%
3.0%
1.20
Water & rail trans
0 .5 0
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Local government
Basic metal manuf
0 .4 0
F inance
0.60
0 .3 0
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
Other f ood manuf
-0.5 %
0.0%
0.5 %
Dairy prod manuf H orticulture & fruit growing Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Dairy cattle farming
1.0%
Meat & meat prod manuf Livestock & cropping farming Forestry & logging
0 .1 0
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
0.20 0 .0 0 0.00 -2.0%
-1.0%
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
0 .2 0 Wood prod manuf
-3.0%
-1 .0%
Paper & paper prod manuf 0 .6 0
1.00
0.40
-1.5 %
0 .7 0 Textile & apparel manuf
Trans equipment manuf
0.80
Real es tate Sheet& fabricated metal prod manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Cul tural & recreational svcs Road trans
1.0 0
0.50
-3.0%
Printi ng, publ. & rec. media
Svcs tofi nance & i nvestment
1.5 0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-0 .1 0
3.0%
-1 5.0%
-1 0.0%
-5.0 %
0.0 %
5.0 %
10 .0%
0.09 Water supply
0.08 0.07
Fishing
0.06 0.05 0.04
Other farming
0.03
Mining & quarrying
0.02
Electricity generation & supply
0.01 0.00 -20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
NOTE: These figures are replicated in Appendix 4.7 with a larger scale for ease of reference. The Construction sector, while being located in Quadrant 1, does not imply that this sector dominates the local economy. Similarly construction employment in North Shore City does not imply that all the physical construction 42
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
activities are undertaken within the boundaries of the North Shore.
While construction entities (registered
businesses) might be located within North Shore City, their business activities could include construction activity outside the North Shore area. However, the majority of construction activity is aimed at the residential sector. This, coupled with the owner-operator nature of the industry (residential addresses registered as business locations), means that areas with a high residential component (such as the metropolitan centres) and high growth prospects, naturally have high construction employment. The Retail sector is another key sector in the North Shore City context, and based on the SLQ and shifts in the relative position of this sector, implies that retailing is likely to remain a leading sector. Hhe retail SLQ (based on FTE projections) should be interpreted with caution because retail trade is demand-driven. The demand for retail is a function of the socio-economic features of the trade (catchment) area and economic conditions. In the case of the SLQ, the value larger than one means that the area has retail facilities which service more than merely the North Shore population, or that the inherent characteristics of the North Shore population support a higher level of retail than the national average. In essence, this means that the retail sector could be serving a catchment that is greater than just the North Shore City area. This could relate to the large retailing precincts such as the Westfield Albany area and the bulk retail of Wairau Valley, attracting retail spending from outside North Shore City. The Wholesale Trade sector is a key employer (large FTE basis) and is located in Quadrant IV. A closer inspection of the projected SLQ and FTEs for this sector reveals that the sector is comparatively stable and is expected to have a constant increase/growth in the number of FTEs employed. Wholesaling’s location in Q-IV is therefore not a critical issue. The Textile and Apparel Manufacturing sector is expected to move into QI in the long term. However, the location of this sector in QI is subject to intermittent movements out of the quadrant. In other words, the sector has a ‘marginal’ score in terms of the SLQ. While this sector is comparatively small (on an FTE basis) compared to the Business Services and Retail sectors, the sector provides an opportunity for diversifying the manufacturing base. It should however be noted that this sector is likely to face significant market pressures from low-cost international manufacturers and it is envisaged that the entities in this sector are likely to focus on the niche, high-quality manufactured products eg techni-textiles for the garment industry and other high tech materials such as sails for the marine industry. With reference to Quadrant II, the make-up of this quadrant is forecast to remain relatively stable under the ‘Future Scenario’ with a total of five sectors moving in and out of this quadrant. The sectors moving out of Quadrant II under the ‘Future Scenario’ are: • •
Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage Textiles & Apparel Manufacturing
to QIII. to QI (discussed in the preceding).
The sectors which are expected to move into QII under the ‘Future Scenario’ assumptions include: •
Basic Metals Manufacturing.
• •
Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing. Finance sectors.
The movement of Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing into Quadrant II confirms the features associated with this sector in the preceding section ie this manufacturing sub-sector is expected to grow in the short to long term in terms of its position in the local economy. As indicated in preceding sections, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing was one of the key important sectors in terms of: 43
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
• •
Long term growth in value added. Long term growth in output.
•
Export by value.
This industry’s movement from QIII to QII highlights the emerging importance of this sector with a potential focus on the export market. While Basic Metals Manufacturing also moves from QIII to QII, this sector is not as significant as Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing in terms of growth, value added or output. Basic Metals Manufacturing is one of the largest (7th largest) exporters, but is relatively small in terms of both value added and employment (FTE). However, from an industry perspective, potential synergies exist between the two sectors. Under the ‘Future Scenario’, manufacturing activities with development potential (as identified through the preceding analysis) are expected to be associated with: • •
Basic Metals Manufacturing. Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing.
• •
Non-metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing. Paper and Paper Product Manufacturing.
The other three sectors that feature in QII include Local Government, Education, and Health and Community Services. The local government sector is a key role-player in the local economy and has distinctive roles (such as co-ordinator, stimulator, facilitator and developer) but is not a sector that can be targeted through stimulatory instruments to drive economic development or to improve the functioning of the economic system per se. The emergence of Education as a potential key contributor to the North Shore economy is highlighted by the shift share framework. While this sector is not currently in QI, it has an important role to play in the economy through the provision of employees with targeted skill sets. It is important to distinguish the dual role of this sector. Firstly the sector produces an economic output (as projected and discussed in the preceding sections) and, secondly the sector provides a service to the economy with specific emphasis on the quality of the labour force. Both these components are, however, critically important for the future of the North Shore City economy. Other observations regarding Figure 4-10 include: •
The location of the Accommodation, Restaurant and Bars sector in QIII does not imply that this sector is not important in the local context. This sector has a strong interface with the retail sector and supports this sector. It is a small employer (in terms of FTEs), however the low SLQ could be interpreted as a gap in the current market
•
profile – especially around the leisure industry (hotels and tourism industry type activities). The Manufacturing sub-sectors which play a smaller role are predominantly related to the agri-processing type activities as well as some of the traditionally heavy industries (such as petro-chemical processing).
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, a number of potential patterns and movements in the economic structure were identified. These shifts and movements have different implications for the economic functioning of the city. The development indicators used by Enterprise North Shore should provide an indication of likely development opportunities.
44
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
4.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS The ‘Future Scenario’ provides a baseline that could be used to measure the impacts of development interventions in the North Shore economy. While the movements and dynamics of the broader economy will also influence the North Shore economy and sectors, using instruments such as location quotients enables a wide tracking of sectoral movements based on local, regional and national trends. Similarly by using the development indicators for the North Shore, intervention points could be identified and conversely selection of appropriate development programmes can be prioritised. By inference, this also means that development issues and constraints that could not be realistically influenced can be monitored and their influence on the economy can be tracked. By maintaining an understanding of the environment within which North Shore businesses operate, it is possible to identify and highlight: • •
Emerging constraints. Trends in the existing constraints.
• •
Emerging development opportunities. Uptake of salient/latent development opportunities.
•
Shifts in the economic and sectoral structure.
By monitoring the development environment, as informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, implications of movements in one or many of these variables can be determined and appropriate responses can be designed and implemented in time. Examples of the dimensions to monitor include: • •
The growth and movements in selected sectors (such as the targeted business sectors). Monitoring of trends in the economic structure such as the growing importance of business services in terms of employment and proportional labour market structure, and the ability of the labour force to meet industry requirements (in terms of quality and quantity of labour).
•
Clarifying the need and rationale for regional economic infrastructure, such as transport infrastructure and telecommunications infrastructure.
•
Monitoring the supporting industries and institutions and their comparative contribution to the performance of the economy and key sectors – the ‘services to the Finance and Insurance sector’ is an example of a supporting
•
industry. Identification of emerging sectors, and linking the sectors with appropriate development assistance. For example, the Education sector.
A key issue associated with the indicators is that they are based on historic data and are subject to a time lag. Hence, monitoring of indicator movements needs to be informed by the overall economic context (such as the movements in the external macro-economic environment). While modelling of this external environment is beyond the ambit of this study, numerous free sources exist that provide quarterly commentaries on the external environment. These commentaries should be used to sketch the context within which any assessment of economic performance by the North Shore or North Shore businesses is undertaken. Examples of these commentaries include: •
New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER).
• •
Various financial institutions both public and private (eg Westpac, National Bank, Bank of New Zealand). Statistics New Zealand.
•
Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
45
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The inclusion of commentaries enables the timely identification of movements in the market place which might not be evident in the modelling outputs. One of the features of the economy that will receive ongoing monitoring is employment and capital productivity. However, sectoral productivity measurements are only available at a national level and not at territorial authority level. They are subsequently captured under the external environment component and are not part of the core indicator set of North Shore City’s economic performance. The proposed indicator set is presented in the following section.
46
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
5 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS Development indicators, based on the overall economy as well as the North Shore’s targeted business sectors, are presented in this section. The primary focus is on the main indicators and the establishment of a baseline for future tracking of the economy. In addition to the main (and traditional) measures of economic and business activity (output, value added and employment) a number of ratios have been included to reflect the changing conditions. The indicators outline elements associated with general economic parameters and their relationship with the broader economy (Auckland region and New Zealand) in terms of business units and employee counts on an annual basis between 2001 and 2007. In addition, the relative share (proportion) of business and employment profiles have been included together with an indication of the relative share of growth (decline) captured in North Shore City and the Auckland region. Intuitive labels have been used and the reader is referred to Table 5-1 to view the following indicators: •
Businesses o o
•
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand). Employment (Employee Counts) o o
•
•
Total number of entities Growth in entities
Total number of employees Change in employees over time
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand). North Shore – targeted business sectors o o
Employment by targeted business sector (based on Employee Counts) Number of business in the targeted business sectors and the associated growth trends (and comparative
o
figures as outlined above) An indication of the share of the business and employment captured by the targeted business sectors in
relation to the other ‘non- targeted business sectors’ in the different areas. Value of building consents o o
The total value of the construction (value of building consents) A sectoral breakdown of value of the building consents using 17 sectors.
Table 5-1 provides the information associated with the preceding and also provides an indication of overall trends (between 2001 and 2007) in the final column. The three tables (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4) provide detailed information about the sectors for North Shore City, Auckland region and New Zealand. More specifically, the three tables provide the same information for the three economies and provide estimated historic and forecast levels of: • •
The gross output per targeted business sector The value added per targeted business sector
• •
The employment (Full Time Equivalent - FTEs ) Value added per FTE
•
Output per FTE.
18
18
FTEs were used for the future projections and the employee counts were used to inform the estimates of the recent
employment levels. 47
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The tables also provide an indication of average annual growth rates for each individual targeted business sectors and for the different timeframes out to 2031. The information and indicators used in this section (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4) has furthermore been packaged into ratios that shed light on the internal (area-based) characteristics of the targeted business sectors ie the relative share of the targeted business sectors towards: 1) The comparative contribution to output and value added of the targeted business sectors in the North Shore compared with the Auckland region and the Auckland region to New Zealand (refer to Table 5-5 and Table 5.6). 2) The relative contribution that each area’s targeted business sectors make towards the aggregate targeted business output, value added and FTEs is presented in Table 5-7. It is stressed that while the sector level parameters (outlined in the preceding section) are not replicated in this section, the ongoing monitoring of the ‘Future Scenario’ is implied. The information associated with projected gross output, value added and employment is contained in the following appendices • •
Appendix 4.4: Projected Gross Output Per Sector Appendix 4.5: Projected Value Added Per Sector
•
Appendix 4.6: Projected Employment – Full Time Equivalents (FTEs)
Similarly the location quotients for the individual 48 (Appendix 4.7) should also form part of the monitoring activity. The rationale for monitoring the SLQ of all sectors in the North Shore economy is based on the fact that the measure encompasses trends in the broader economy, as well as the local sector into one parameter. Monitoring of the SLQ movements is not envisaged to provide a definitive indication of emerging sectors but rather to act as a ‘Warning Signal’ and to trigger focused investigation around the causes of the movement. This is partially because a 48 sector breakdown of the economy is necessarily coarse, meaning that detailed understanding of shifts is not able to be developed by simply focusing on a 48 sector SLQ assessment. The shift share framework employed in the preceding section provides the necessary baseline for this monitoring.
48
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS ASPECT
AREA
YEAR
# % # % # % # % TARGETED BUSINESSES
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
TREND (2001-2007)
NORTH SHORE
14,426
14,606
15,459
17,169
18,372
19,112
19,423
AUCKLAND REGION
120,892
121,943
128,132
141,067
148,485
153,326
156,141
NEW ZEALAND
403,645
408,416
422,548
453,662
474,007
490,474
499,940
NS: AUCKLAND
11.9%
12.0%
12.1%
12.2%
12.4%
12.5%
12.4%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ
30.0%
29.9%
30.3%
31.1%
31.3%
31.3%
31.2%
NEW ZEALAND
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
291
1,159
2,208
1,572
884
553
AUCKLAND REGION
1,051
6,189
12,935
7,418
4,841
2,815
NEW ZEALAND
4,771
14,132
31,114
20,345
16,467
9,466
SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND)
27.7%
18.7%
17.1%
21.2%
18.3%
19.6%
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ)
22.0%
43.8%
41.6%
36.5%
29.4%
29.7%
NORTH SHORE
% OF TARGETED
NORTH SHORE – TARGETED SECTORS
GROWTH IN EMPLOYME
EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IN BUSINESSES
BUSINESSES
2001
NORTH SHORE
66,652
70,876
74,107
78,537
81,655
83,500
86,121
AUCKLAND REGION
518,231
532,021
553,603
578,870
598,736
612,247
627,072
NEW ZEALAND
1,612,237
1,661,627
1,716,538
1,785,493
1,844,660
1,880,821
1,923,306
NS: AUCKLAND
12.9%
13.3%
13.4%
13.6%
13.6%
13.6%
13.7%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ
32.1%
32.0%
32.3%
32.4%
32.5%
32.6%
32.6%
NEW ZEALAND
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
NORTH SHORE
4224
3231
4430
3118
1845
2,621
AUCKLAND REGION
13790
21582
25267
19866
13511
14,825
NEW ZEALAND
49390
54911
68955
59167
36161
42,485
SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND)
30.6%
15.0%
17.5%
15.7%
13.7%
17.7%
27.9%
39.3%
36.6%
33.6%
37.4%
34.9%
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
377
385
398
422
427
399
393
EDUCATION
290
313
332
354
367
364
370
SPORTS
201
203
226
245
273
287
296
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ)
691
697
733
773
827
875
898
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
3,746
3,818
4,033
4,426
4,695
4,808
5,018
OTHER
14,426
14,606
15,459
17,169
18,372
19,112
19,423
TOTAL
19,731
20,022
21,181
23,389
24,961
25,845
26,398
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
1.91%
1.92%
1.88%
1.80%
1.71%
1.54%
1.49%
EDUCATION
1.47%
1.56%
1.57%
1.51%
1.47%
1.41%
1.40%
SPORTS
1.02%
1.01%
1.07%
1.05%
1.09%
1.11%
1.12%
HEALTH
3.50%
3.48%
3.46%
3.30%
3.31%
3.39%
3.40%
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
18.99%
19.07%
19.04%
18.92%
18.81%
18.60%
19.01%
HEALTH
49
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS ASPECT
AREA
ABSOLUTE MOVEMENT % OF GROWTH SECTORAL BREAKDOWN
VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS
TARGETED SECTORS’ MOVEMENTS
OTHER TOTAL HIGH TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION SPORTS HEALTH FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TOTAL TARGETED OTHER TOTAL HIGH TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION SPORTS HEALTH FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TOTAL TOTAL AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE TRADE RETAIL TRADE ACCOMMODATION, CAFES & RESTAURANTS TRANSPORT & STORAGE COMMUNICATION SERVICES FINANCE & INSURANCE PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION & DEFENCE EDUCATION HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICES CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL SERVICES PERSONAL AND OTHER SERVICES
YEAR
TREND (2001-2007)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
73.11% 100.00%
72.95% 100.00%
72.99% 100.00%
73.41% 100.00%
73.60% 100.00%
73.95% 100.00%
73.58% 100.00%
13 19 23 36 393 306 853 1,159 4.2% 6.2% 7.5% 11.8% 70.3% 100.0% 83,281,050 60,500 8,400,000 15,000 881,000 6,559,000 2,687,800 45,000 19,900 18,719,850 24,875,000 20,488,000 530,000
24 22 19 40 269 498 1,710 2,208 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 8.0% 78.9% 100.0% 121,265,716 272,942 11,023,000 148,985 490,000 44,360,000 3,645,500 2,310,000 800,000 22,274,000 30,778,289 282,000 4,221,000
5 13 28 54 113 369 1,203 1,572 1.4% 3.5% 7.6% 14.6% 72.9% 100.0% 144,331,432 755,442 170,000 30,254,600 11,067,700 115,000 7,844,500 43,738,700 2,500,000 36,176,000 669,490 590,000
-28 -3 14 48 210 144 740 884 -19.4% -2.1% 9.7% 33.3% 78.5% 100.0% 156,589,690 11,000 2,597,000 1,130,000 220,000 29,893,500 32,364,500 950,000 2,720,000 60,333,300 32,000 12,044,443 13,324,447 639,500
-6 6 9 23
82,793,261 78,000 4,104,861 150,000 14,156,200 6,471,400 5,506,400 409,000 34,900,900 8,927,500 1,789,000 4,800,000
8 23 2 6 215 111 180 291 7.2% 20.7% 1.8% 5.4% 64.9% 100.0% 77,685,655 144,000 3,136,355 25,000 761,000 13,826,000 17,338,000 4,435,000 1,838,000 12,617,000 35,000 18,001,000 2,330,000 2,695,800
1,500,000
503,500
-
660,000
10,450,000
330,000
72
50
242 311 553 -2.5% 2.5% 3.7% 9.5% 86.8% 100.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – NORTH SHORE NORTH SHORE Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'m High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total industry) TBAP Share of North Shore
2006 830,880 67,187 116,642 1,807,717 378,930 3,201,355 12,872,000 24.87%
2007* 851,571 68,703 119,753 1,854,374 386,332 3,280,734 13,177,910 24.90%
2008* 872,862 70,253 122,948 1,902,265 393,880 3,362,208 13,491,090 24.92%
2011 940,546 75,116 133,053 2,053,666 417,425 3,619,806 14,476,000 25.01%
2016 1,062,930 83,463 152,434 2,324,309 457,546 4,080,682 16,150,000 25.27%
2021 1,199,937 92,017 173,381 2,619,925 496,948 4,582,208 17,900,000 25.60%
2026 1,360,372 100,781 196,936 2,949,092 534,910 5,142,090 19,744,000 26.04%
2031 1,546,551 109,545 223,542 3,314,878 570,774 5,765,290 21,678,000 26.60%
2006-2011 2.51% 2.26% 2.67% 2.58% 1.95% 2.49% 2.38%
2011-2016 2.48% 2.13% 2.76% 2.51% 1.85% 2.43% 2.21%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.45% 2.54% 2.60% 1.97% 1.84% 1.68% 2.61% 2.58% 2.57% 2.42% 2.40% 2.37% 1.67% 1.48% 1.31% 2.35% 2.33% 2.31% 2.08% 1.98% 1.89%
2011-2031 2.52% 1.90% 2.63% 2.42% 1.58% 2.35% 2.04%
2006-2031 2.52% 1.97% 2.64% 2.46% 1.65% 2.38% 2.11%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total industry) TBAP Share of North Shore
2006 461,177 54,668 61,592 1,071,232 289,942 1,938,611 7,429,000 26.10%
2007* 472,527 55,904 63,293 1,098,370 295,611 1,985,705 7,597,940 26.13%
2008* 484,199 57,169 65,041 1,126,214 290,500 2,023,122 7,770,721 26.04%
2011 521,256 61,136 70,580 1,214,177 319,425 2,186,574 8,313,000 26.30%
2016 587,882 68,022 81,054 1,374,036 349,813 2,460,806 9,253,000 26.59%
2021 664,254 74,908 92,049 1,549,351 380,140 2,760,701 10,230,000 26.99%
2026 750,078 82,002 104,529 1,743,376 409,809 3,089,794 11,246,000 27.47%
2031
2006-2011 2.48% 2.26% 2.76% 2.54% 1.96% 2.44% 2.27%
2011-2016 2.43% 2.16% 2.81% 2.50% 1.83% 2.39% 2.17%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.47% 2.46% 2.59% 1.95% 1.83% 1.67% 2.58% 2.58% 2.57% 2.43% 2.39% 2.36% 1.68% 1.51% 1.31% 2.33% 2.28% 2.27% 2.03% 1.91% 1.82%
2011-2031 2.49% 1.90% 2.63% 2.42% 1.58% 2.32% 1.98%
2006-2031 2.49% 1.97% 2.66% 2.44% 1.66% 2.34% 2.04%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-2011 2.11% 1.57% 2.07% 2.03% 1.30% 1.88% 2.71%
2011-2016 2.06% 1.49% 2.02% 1.98% 1.22% 1.82% 1.62%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.10% 2.19% 2.31% 1.32% 1.17% 1.02% 1.94% 1.92% 1.91% 1.90% 1.89% 1.89% 1.02% 0.85% 0.66% 1.74% 1.72% 1.72% 1.48% 1.38% 1.30%
2011-2031 2.16% 1.25% 1.95% 1.91% 0.94% 1.75% 1.45%
2006-2031 2.15% 1.31% 1.97% 1.94% 1.01% 1.77% 1.70%
852,401 89,096 118,654 1,958,799 437,318 3,456,269 12,308,000 28.08%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total) TBAP Share of North Shore
4,245 1,083 989 12,357 4,928 23,602 83,500 28.27%
4,326 1,098 1,008 12,594 4,978 24,003 86,121 27.87%
4,409 1,112 1,028 12,358 5,028 23,934 90,202 26.53%
4,713 1,171 1,096 13,663 5,257 25,899 95,424 27.14%
5,217 1,261 1,211 15,071 5,584 28,345 103,413 27.41%
5,790 1,346 1,333 16,559 5,874 30,902 111,299 27.77%
6,451 1,427 1,466 18,180 6,127 33,651 119,209 28.23%
7,230 1,501 1,612 19,962 6,333 36,638 127,150 28.81%
Value Added Per FTE ($) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total)
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2006 108,645 50,462 62,287 86,693 58,836 82,139 88,970
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2007* 109,240 50,934 62,773 87,216 59,388 82,728 88,224
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 109,826 51,411 63,262 91,135 57,779 84,528 86,148
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2011 110,610 52,210 64,414 88,864 60,767 84,427 87,116
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 112,676 53,938 66,937 91,171 62,642 86,817 89,476
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 114,730 55,633 69,041 93,566 64,718 89,337 91,915
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 116,274 57,456 71,298 95,895 66,885 91,818 94,339
117,894 59,347 73,618 98,126 69,057 94,336 96,799
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.36% 0.37% 0.68% 0.65% 0.67% 0.77% 0.50% 0.51% 0.65% 0.61% 0.55% 0.56% -0.42% 0.54%
2016-2021 0.36% 0.62% 0.62% 0.52% 0.65% 0.57% 0.54%
2021-2026 0.27% 0.65% 0.65% 0.49% 0.66% 0.55% 0.52%
2026-2031 0.28% 0.65% 0.64% 0.46% 0.64% 0.54% 0.52%
2011-2031 0.32% 0.64% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.56% 0.53%
2006-2031 0.33% 0.65% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.56% 0.34%
213,901 72,967 138,695 166,059 90,131 157,358 170,492
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.39% 0.41% 0.68% 0.63% 0.58% 0.72% 0.54% 0.52% 0.65% 0.63% 0.60% 0.59% -0.32% 0.58%
2006-2013 0.34% 0.64% 0.65% 0.51% 0.64% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2014 0.35% 0.66% 0.65% 0.50% 0.63% 0.60% 0.59%
2006-2015 0.28% 0.66% 0.64% 0.47% 0.64% 0.59% 0.58%
2006-2016 0.35% 0.65% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2017 0.36% 0.65% 0.65% 0.51% 0.64% 0.60% 0.40%
2031 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Output Per FTE ($) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total)
2006 195,740 62,018 117,958 146,295 76,894 135,641 154,156
2007* 196,868 62,595 118,769 147,247 77,613 136,682 153,016
2008* 197,983 63,178 119,584 153,934 78,340 140,476 149,565
2011 199,583 64,148 121,428 150,305 79,411 139,766 151,702
2016 203,725 66,181 125,885 154,225 81,934 143,966 156,170
2021 207,254 68,340 130,044 158,218 84,604 148,281 160,828
2026 210,880 70,614 134,329 162,216 87,302 152,805 165,625
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
51
2031
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-3: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION AUCKLAND REGION Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
2006 4,933,057 973,834 950,888 14,226,258 2,465,871 23,549,908 98,421,000 23.93%
2007* 5,075,849 999,533 981,367 14,621,557 2,519,443 24,197,748 101,071,111 23.94%
2008* 5,223,329 1,025,909 1,012,823 15,028,007 2,574,194 24,864,262 103,796,822 23.95%
2011 5,695,623 1,109,290 1,113,379 16,317,490 2,745,786 26,981,568 112,451,000 23.99%
2016 6,518,135 1,254,498 1,298,734 18,584,965 3,039,801 30,696,134 126,956,000 24.18%
2021 7,476,945 1,406,208 1,508,161 21,066,877 3,333,590 34,791,780 142,479,000 24.42%
2026 8,618,147 1,564,059 1,749,439 23,816,609 3,626,651 39,374,905 159,182,000 24.74%
2031 9,988,694 1,726,966 2,029,406 26,876,783 3,911,424 44,533,273 177,178,000 25.13%
2006-2011 2.92% 2.64% 3.21% 2.78% 2.17% 2.76% 2.70%
2011-2016 2.73% 2.49% 3.13% 2.64% 2.06% 2.61% 2.46%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.78% 2.88% 3.00% 2.31% 2.15% 2.00% 3.04% 3.01% 3.01% 2.54% 2.48% 2.45% 1.86% 1.70% 1.52% 2.54% 2.51% 2.49% 2.33% 2.24% 2.17%
2011-2031 2.85% 2.24% 3.05% 2.53% 1.78% 2.54% 2.30%
2006-2031 2.86% 2.32% 3.08% 2.58% 1.86% 2.58% 2.38%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
2006 2,270,353 737,600 571,290 8,969,495 1,746,710 14,295,448 52,154,000 27.41%
2007* 2,338,008 756,997 589,718 9,214,389 1,785,095 14,684,207 53,518,508 27.44%
2008* 2,407,907 776,905 608,740 9,466,082 1,714,365 14,973,998 54,918,716 27.27%
2011 2,631,900 839,824 669,570 10,263,893 1,947,350 16,352,536 59,343,000 27.56%
2016 3,033,279 949,994 781,431 11,668,772 2,156,912 18,590,388 66,909,000 27.78%
2021 3,503,383 1,064,499 908,048 13,198,469 2,366,784 21,041,184 74,965,000 28.07%
2026 4,061,209 1,183,700 1,054,010 14,882,214 2,575,465 23,756,598 83,585,000 28.42%
2031 4,733,553 1,306,874 1,223,755 16,747,092 2,778,205 26,789,478 92,829,000 28.86%
2006-2011 3.00% 2.63% 3.23% 2.73% 2.20% 2.73% 2.62%
2011-2016 2.88% 2.50% 3.14% 2.60% 2.07% 2.60% 2.43%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.92% 3.00% 3.11% 2.30% 2.15% 2.00% 3.05% 3.03% 3.03% 2.49% 2.43% 2.39% 1.87% 1.70% 1.53% 2.51% 2.46% 2.43% 2.30% 2.20% 2.12%
2011-2031 2.98% 2.24% 3.06% 2.48% 1.79% 2.50% 2.26%
2006-2031 2.98% 2.31% 3.09% 2.53% 1.87% 2.54% 2.33%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2011-2016 2.38% 1.83% 2.42% 2.10% 1.43% 2.01% 1.86%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.45% 2.56% 2.69% 1.65% 1.49% 1.34% 2.34% 2.32% 2.32% 2.01% 1.97% 1.95% 1.23% 1.06% 0.88% 1.93% 1.89% 1.87% 1.74% 1.65% 1.58%
2011-2031 2.52% 1.58% 2.35% 2.01% 1.15% 1.93% 1.71%
2006-2031 2.52% 1.65% 2.39% 2.05% 1.23% 1.97% 1.77%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
25,260 14,379 5,903 92,493 30,170 168,204 616,094 27.30%
25,891 14,661 6,053 94,552 30,642 171,799 628,661 27.33%
26,540 14,950 6,206 92,511 31,122 171,328 641,504 26.71%
28,606 15,849 6,688 103,266 32,608 187,017 681,756 27.43%
32,175 17,351 7,538 114,547 35,013 206,624 747,668 27.64%
36,317 18,827 8,464 126,521 37,225 227,354 814,958 27.90%
41,207 20,272 9,491 139,475 39,238 249,684 884,392 28.23%
2006-2011 47,062 21,666 10,643 153,626 40,985 273,981 956,366 28.65%
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology $ Education $ Sports & Performance $ Financial & Professional$ Health $ Total (TBAP) $ ARC (Total industry) $
2007* 89,881 51,299 96,773 96,975 57,896 84,989 84,653
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 90,303 51,632 97,432 97,453 58,256 85,473 85,131
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
90,727 51,968 98,096 102,324 55,085 87,399 85,609
2011 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 92,005 52,988 100,114 99,393 59,720 87,439 87,044
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 94,276 54,751 103,662 101,869 61,604 89,972 89,490
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 96,467 56,542 107,282 104,318 63,581 92,548 91,986
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
100,582 60,320 114,986 109,012 67,785 97,779 97,064
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.47% 0.49% 0.65% 0.66% 0.68% 0.70% 0.49% 0.49% 0.62% 0.62% 0.57% 0.57% 0.56% 0.56%
2016-2021 0.46% 0.65% 0.69% 0.48% 0.63% 0.57% 0.55%
2021-2026 0.43% 0.65% 0.69% 0.45% 0.64% 0.56% 0.54%
2026-2031 0.41% 0.65% 0.70% 0.43% 0.65% 0.55% 0.53%
2011-2031 0.45% 0.65% 0.69% 0.46% 0.64% 0.56% 0.55%
2006-2031 0.45% 0.65% 0.69% 0.47% 0.63% 0.56% 0.55%
212,247 79,710 190,687 174,950 95,434 162,541 185,262
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.39% 0.35% 0.66% 0.65% 0.66% 0.69% 0.54% 0.53% 0.60% 0.61% 0.60% 0.59% 0.64% 0.58%
2006-2013 0.32% 0.65% 0.68% 0.52% 0.62% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2014 0.31% 0.65% 0.68% 0.51% 0.63% 0.60% 0.58%
2006-2015 0.30% 0.65% 0.68% 0.49% 0.64% 0.61% 0.58%
2006-2016 0.32% 0.65% 0.68% 0.51% 0.63% 0.60% 0.58%
2006-2017 0.33% 0.65% 0.68% 0.52% 0.62% 0.60% 0.59%
2031 98,556 58,390 111,050 106,701 65,637 95,147 94,511
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
Output Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry)
195,294 67,728 161,074 153,809 81,734 140,008 159,750
2007* 196,049 68,175 162,140 154,640 82,222 140,849 160,772
2008* 196,808 68,624 163,212 162,446 82,713 145,126 161,802
2011
2016 199,106 69,990 166,473 158,014 84,206 144,273 164,943
2021 202,586 72,300 172,285 162,248 86,820 148,561 169,803
2026 205,881 74,692 178,182 166,508 89,553 153,029 174,830
2031 209,142 77,152 184,321 170,759 92,427 157,699 179,990
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
52
2.52% 1.97% 2.53% 2.23% 1.57% 2.14% 2.05%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-4: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
2006 12,121,985 2,828,872 2,391,892 28,558,455 7,774,846 53,676,050 290,970,000 18.45%
2007* 12,457,609 2,887,107 2,461,082 29,265,657 7,903,720 54,975,175 298,270,902 18.43%
2008* 12,803,714 2,946,541 2,532,274 29,990,618 8,034,729 56,307,877 305,782,680 18.41%
2011 13,908,620 3,132,285 2,758,450 32,276,631 8,440,934 60,516,920 329,639,000 18.36%
2016 15,817,983 3,446,375 3,172,953 36,136,807 9,098,498 67,672,616 367,217,000 18.43%
2021 18,032,292 3,766,319 3,645,399 40,304,038 9,722,767 75,470,814 407,634,000 18.51%
2026 20,648,412 4,093,151 4,196,830 44,850,646 10,315,971 84,105,011 451,118,000 18.64%
2031 23,775,066 4,423,083 4,845,725 49,830,918 10,856,944 93,731,735 498,009,000 18.82%
2006/7 2.77% 2.06% 2.89% 2.48% 1.66% 2.42% 2.53%
2011-2016 2.61% 1.93% 2.84% 2.29% 1.51% 2.26% 2.18%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.65% 2.75% 2.86% 1.79% 1.68% 1.56% 2.81% 2.86% 2.92% 2.21% 2.16% 2.13% 1.34% 1.19% 1.03% 2.21% 2.19% 2.19% 2.11% 2.05% 2.00%
2011-2031 2.72% 1.74% 2.86% 2.20% 1.27% 2.21% 2.08%
2006-2031 2.73% 1.80% 2.86% 2.25% 1.34% 2.25% 2.17%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
2006 5,061,107 2,187,606 1,439,911 18,772,440 5,617,922 33,078,985 147,146,000 22.48%
2007* 5,209,388 2,232,367 1,481,698 19,228,875 5,711,157 34,513,866 165,268,000 20.88%
2008* 5,362,518 2,278,045 1,524,697 19,696,573 5,652,033 34,513,866 183,407,000 18.82%
2011 5,852,772 2,420,762 1,661,331 21,170,103 6,099,831 37,204,799 165,268,000 22.51%
2016 6,734,463 2,663,217 1,911,585 23,653,383 6,574,076 41,536,724 183,407,000 22.65%
2021 7,769,792 2,909,116 2,197,601 26,321,786 7,024,692 46,222,988 202,664,000 22.81%
2026 9,006,108 3,160,526 2,531,424 29,217,859 7,451,395 51,367,311 223,194,000 23.01%
2031 10,499,613 3,414,346 2,924,679 32,372,349 7,839,081 57,050,068 245,105,000 23.28%
2006-2011 2.95% 2.05% 2.90% 2.43% 1.66% 2.38% 2.35%
2011-2016 2.85% 1.93% 2.85% 2.24% 1.51% 2.23% 2.10%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.90% 3.00% 3.12% 1.78% 1.67% 1.56% 2.83% 2.87% 2.93% 2.16% 2.11% 2.07% 1.33% 1.19% 1.02% 2.16% 2.13% 2.12% 2.02% 1.95% 1.89%
2011-2031 2.97% 1.73% 2.87% 2.15% 1.26% 2.16% 1.99%
2006-2031 2.96% 1.80% 2.87% 2.20% 1.34% 2.20% 2.06%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2011-2016 2.41% 1.27% 2.13% 1.72% 0.85% 1.59% 1.55% 0
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.48% 2.59% 2.73% 1.13% 1.02% 0.90% 2.12% 2.16% 2.23% 1.65% 1.62% 1.60% 0.67% 0.53% 0.36% 1.53% 1.51% 1.51% 1.47% 1.41% 1.36% 0 0 0
2011-2031 2.55% 1.08% 2.16% 1.65% 0.60% 1.53% 1.45% 0
2006-2031 2.54% 1.14% 2.17% 1.70% 0.68% 1.57% 1.52% 0
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.42% 0.43% 0.65% 0.65% 0.69% 0.70% 0.52% 0.51% 0.65% 0.65% 0.63% 0.62% 0.54% 0.55%
2016-2021 0.41% 0.65% 0.69% 0.50% 0.66% 0.62% 0.54%
2021-2026 0.40% 0.65% 0.69% 0.48% 0.66% 0.61% 0.53%
2026-2031 0.38% 0.65% 0.69% 0.46% 0.66% 0.61% 0.52%
2011-2031 0.40% 0.65% 0.69% 0.49% 0.65% 0.62% 0.54%
2006-2031 0.41% 0.65% 0.69% 0.50% 0.65% 0.62% 0.54%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.27% 0.19% 0.66% 0.65% 0.68% 0.69% 0.56% 0.55% 0.65% 0.65% 0.68% 0.66% 0.71% 0.63%
2006-2013 0.17% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.66% 0.63%
2006-2014 0.15% 0.65% 0.68% 0.53% 0.66% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2015 0.13% 0.65% 0.67% 0.52% 0.67% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2016 0.16% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2017 0.18% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.67% 0.64%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
57,648 42,323 16,850 189,779 99,751 406,351 1,841,441 22.07%
59,087 42,912 17,221 193,391 100,752 413,362 1,874,424 22.05%
60,567 43,509 17,599 189,831 101,763 413,270 1,908,126 21.66%
65,271 45,352 18,784 208,550 104,859 442,815 2,013,741 21.99%
73,519 48,300 20,873 227,122 109,413 479,228 2,174,378 22.04%
83,101 51,090 23,182 246,527 113,154 517,055 2,338,859 22.11%
94,435 53,746 25,800 267,129 116,166 557,277 2,508,394 22.22%
2006-2011
108,029 56,214 28,804 289,222 118,262 600,531 2,684,057 22.37%
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology $ Education $ Sports & Performance $ Financial & Professional$ Health $ Total (TBAP) $ NZ(Total industry) $
2007* 87,794 51,689 85,453 98,917 56,320 81,405 79,908
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 88,165 52,022 86,043 99,430 56,685 83,495 88,170
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
88,538 52,358 86,637 103,759 55,541 83,514 96,119
2011 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 89,669 53,377 88,444 101,511 58,172 84,019 82,070
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 91,601 55,139 91,581 104,144 60,085 86,674 84,349
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 93,498 56,941 94,798 106,770 62,081 89,397 86,651
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2031 95,368 58,804 98,116 109,377 64,144 92,176 88,979
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
97,193 60,738 101,536 111,929 66,286 94,999 91,319
Output Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP)
210,277 66,840 141,949 150,482 77,943 132,093
2007* 210,835 67,280 142,916 151,329 78,447 132,995
2008* 211,396 67,722 143,890 157,986 78,955 136,250
2011
2016 213,090 69,066 146,851 154,767 80,498 136,664
2021 215,154 71,353 152,011 159,107 83,157 141,212
2026 216,992 73,719 157,251 163,487 85,925 145,963
2031 218,652 76,157 162,666 167,899 88,804 150,921
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
53
220,081 78,683 168,229 172,293 91,804 156,081
2.52% 1.39% 2.20% 1.90% 1.00% 1.73% 1.81% 0
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-5: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION) Output per Targeted Business Sector 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
16.84%
16.78%
16.71%
16.51%
16.31%
2021 16.05%
2026 15.78%
2031 15.48%
6.90%
6.87%
6.85%
6.77%
6.65%
6.54%
6.44%
6.34%
12.27%
12.20%
12.14%
11.95%
11.74%
11.50%
11.26%
11.02%
12.71%
12.68%
12.66%
12.59%
12.51%
12.44%
12.38%
12.33%
15.37%
15.33%
15.30%
15.20%
15.05%
14.91%
14.75%
14.59%
13.59%
13.56%
13.52%
13.42%
13.29%
13.17%
13.06%
12.95%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2026
2031
20.21%
20.11%
19.81%
19.38%
18.96%
18.47%
18.01%
7.41%
7.39%
7.36%
7.28%
7.16%
7.04%
6.93%
6.82%
10.78%
10.73%
10.68%
10.54%
10.37%
10.14%
9.92%
9.70%
11.94%
11.92%
11.90%
11.83%
11.78%
11.74%
11.71%
11.70%
16.60%
16.56%
16.95%
16.40%
16.22%
16.06%
15.91%
15.74%
13.56%
13.52%
13.51%
13.37%
13.24%
13.12%
13.01%
12.90%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors) 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology
2021
20.31%
16.8%
16.7%
16.6%
16.5%
16.2%
2021 15.9%
2026 15.7%
2031 15.4%
7.5%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.9%
16.8%
16.7%
16.6%
16.4%
16.1%
15.8%
15.4%
15.1%
13.4%
13.3%
13.4%
13.2%
13.2%
13.1%
13.0%
13.0%
16.3%
16.2%
16.2%
16.1%
15.9%
15.8%
15.6%
15.5%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
13.8%
13.7%
13.6%
13.5%
13.4%
TABLE 5-6: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND)
% OF REGION (AUCK:NZ) Output per Targeted Business Sector 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2021
2026
2031
40.70%
40.74%
40.80%
40.95%
41.21%
41.46%
41.74%
42.01%
34.42%
34.62%
34.82%
35.41%
36.40%
37.34%
38.21%
39.04%
39.75%
39.88%
40.00%
40.36%
40.93%
41.37%
41.68%
41.88%
49.81%
49.96%
50.11%
50.56%
51.43%
52.27%
53.10%
53.94%
31.72%
31.88%
32.04%
32.53%
33.41%
34.29%
35.16%
36.03%
43.87%
44.02%
44.16%
44.59%
45.36%
46.10%
46.82%
47.51%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2026
2031
44.88%
44.90%
44.97%
45.04%
45.09%
45.09%
45.08%
33.72%
33.91%
34.10%
34.69%
35.67%
36.59%
37.45%
38.28%
39.68%
39.80%
39.93%
40.30%
40.88%
41.32%
41.64%
41.84%
47.78%
47.92%
48.06%
48.48%
49.33%
50.14%
50.94%
51.73%
31.09%
31.26%
30.33%
31.92%
32.81%
33.69%
34.56%
35.44%
43.22%
42.55%
43.39%
43.95%
44.76%
45.52%
46.25%
46.96%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors) 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology
2021
44.86%
43.8%
43.8%
43.8%
54
43.8%
43.8%
2021 43.7%
2026 43.6%
2031 43.6%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
34.0%
34.2%
34.4%
34.9%
35.9%
36.9%
37.7%
38.5%
35.0%
35.1%
35.3%
35.6%
36.1%
36.5%
36.8%
36.9%
48.7%
48.9%
48.7%
49.5%
50.4%
51.3%
52.2%
53.1%
30.2%
30.4%
30.6%
31.1%
32.0%
32.9%
33.8%
34.7%
41.4%
41.6%
41.5%
42.2%
43.1%
44.0%
44.8%
45.6%
TABLE 5-7: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS
% OF TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS WITHIN EACH AREA NORTH SHORE (% OF TARGETED) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
25.95%
25.96%
25.96%
25.98%
26.05%
26.19%
26.46%
26.83%
2.10%
2.09%
2.09%
2.08%
2.05%
2.01%
1.96%
1.90%
3.64%
3.65%
3.66%
3.68%
3.74%
3.78%
3.83%
3.88%
56.47%
56.52%
56.58%
56.73%
56.96%
57.18%
57.35%
57.50%
11.84%
11.78%
11.71%
11.53%
11.21%
10.85%
10.40%
9.90%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
AUCKLAND REGION (% OF TARGETED) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
20.95%
20.98%
21.01%
21.11%
21.23%
21.49%
21.89%
22.43%
4.14%
4.13%
4.13%
4.11%
4.09%
4.04%
3.97%
3.88%
4.04%
4.06%
4.07%
4.13%
4.23%
4.33%
4.44%
4.56%
60.41%
60.43%
60.44%
60.48%
60.54%
60.55%
60.49%
60.35%
10.47%
10.41%
10.35%
10.18%
9.90%
9.58%
9.21%
8.78%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
NEW ZEALAND (% OF TARGETED) 2006
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
High Technology Education Sports & Performance
22.58%
22.66%
22.74%
22.98%
23.37%
23.89%
24.55%
25.37%
5.27%
5.25%
5.23%
5.18%
5.09%
4.99%
4.87%
4.72%
4.46%
4.48%
4.50%
4.56%
4.69%
4.83%
4.99%
5.17%
Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
53.21%
53.23%
53.26%
53.33%
53.40%
53.40%
53.33%
53.16%
14.48%
14.38%
14.27%
13.95%
13.44%
12.88%
12.27%
11.58%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
55
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
6 LIST OF REFERENCES Bank of New Zealand Economic Outlook. Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2002) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. RAND, Santa Monica, California. Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce). Website: http://www.bea.gov/regional/definitions/. Meintjes C.J. Guidelines to Regional Socio-economic Analysis. Development Bank of Southern Africa. Development Information Business Unit. Development Paper 145. ISBN 1 919692-58-4. Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D. (2004) Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data. University of Pennsylvania & University of Frankfurt, CEPR, and NBER. Guest, R., Bryant, J. and Scobie, G. (2003) Population Ageing in New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving. New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/10, Wellington. Ministry of Health (2002) Health of Older People in New Zealand: A Statistical Reference. Ministry of Health, Wellington. New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) –Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. Statistics New Zealand. WestPac – Economic Overview Q2, 2008.
56
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
7 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH The construction of the EFM begins with the generation of economic accounts that are presented in the format of an input-output table. For each industry and final demand (ie household consumption, exports and gross fixed capital formation) category of the economy, these economic accounts cover: • •
Intermediate inputs (ie as provided by other economic industries). Primary inputs (eg. wages and salaries, operating surplus and depreciation of fixed capital).
• Imports. The economic accounts also cover key economic indicators including gross output, Gross Regional Production (GRP) and full-time equivalent employees (FTEs). The following steps were required to generate the economic accounts: Step 1: Construction of Input-Output Table A multi-regional input-output table was constructed for the financial year ending 31 March 2004. The table was generated by following the GRIT (Generating Regional Input-Output Tables) procedure as developed at the University of Queensland by Jensen et al. (1979). In brief this required the following steps: 1. Statistics New Zealand’s (SNZ) 1995-96 Inter-Industry Study of the New Zealand Economy (the latest national input-output table available) was updated to the 2004 financial year. Updating is conducted on a per industry basis accounting for volume, price, and productivity changes over the intervening eight-year period. 2. The 2004 national input-output table was ‘regionalised’ so as to generate individual input-output tables for each territorial authority within New Zealand. This regionalisation process is undertaken by estimating the degree of regional self-sufficiency, with respect to each economic sector, relative to the nation as a whole. Simple Location Quotients (SLQs)19 are used for this purpose. It can also be noted that all of the individual input-output tables are connected by cross-boundary trade flows (ie inter-regional imports and exports). Overall the 2004 input-output model for the North Shore covers 48 industries, eight primary inputs and eight final demands. Step 2: Estimation of Gross Regional Product 20
Based on the multi-regional input-output tables generated in Step 1, estimates of Gross Regional Product (GRP), and its contribution from individual industries, were determined. As a means of validation, the estimated values were then compared with historical counterparts for the New Zealand economy.
19
Mathematically, the SLQ for a given industry, i, is calculated as:
Empir / Empin SLQi = Emp r / Emp n
( (
where
Empir
) )
is the total number of people employed in the industry in the district or region in question,
employed in the industry in the nation,
Empin is the total number of people
Emp r is total employment in the region or district, and Empn is the total employment in the nation .
All employment figures are measured in FTE equivalents excluding those in management structures. Stated simple, the SLQ is North Shore industry is greater than 1 (SLQ>1), then the industry is deemed to be ‘strong’ in the local economy (i.e. able to satisfy local demand and export). Conversely, industries with a SLQ less than 1 are deemed to be ‘weak’ and therefore unable to satisfy local demand. 20 GRP is a measure of the total flows of goods and services produced by an economy over a year. It is obtained in input-output terms by summing the value of the primary inputs economy-wide and subtracting total imports. It excludes the value of intermediate goods and services as these are implicitly included in the price of final goods.
57
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Step 3: Estimation of Economic Multipliers The multi-regional input-output table generated in Step 1 further enabled calculation of a full set of economic multipliers for each category of economic industry situated within the North Shore. These multipliers include both 21
Type I (direct and indirect) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced) multipliers, and cover the categories of output , value added, and employment. Indirect multiplier impacts are those that result from the repercussionary effects of supply chain processing (ie backward linkages), while induced multiplier impacts account for changes in consumer spending brought about by payment of wages and salaries. Having defined the base economic accounts for the North Shore, it is then possible to derive forecasts of future economic change for the city based on scenario assumptions. A key feature of the EFM model is that it establishes not only direct economic growth and/or decline in key economic industries, but also the indirect impacts associated with flow-on effects. Growth in the Education industry, for example, will most likely result in growth in other activities, such as insurance provision and professional cleaning, as a result of supply chain purchases. Furthermore, if additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This, in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly services supporting households. The model furthermore captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore and the rest of the New Zealand economy. In this way, the implications of growth in key New Zealand industries within the North Shore economy are also captured. The EFM model essentially works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, and determining the level of economic activity required to meet these demands. The repercussionary or flow-on implications are then calculated using input-output mathematics22, with growth rates by the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2026 being the major output. These growth rates, with adjustments for any assumed productivity gains, are then used to estimate the total future economic implications associated with growth.
21 Output is a measure of the total flow of goods and services within an economy. This includes intermediate demand, primary inputs and final demands. It should not be confused with value added (i.e. GRP), which does not include intermediate demand. 22 Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact e.g. for events such as the America’s Cup and the proposed 2011 Rugby World Cup.
58
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
8 APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION HIGH TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
EDUCATION SECTOR
C243000 Recorded Media Manufacturing and Publishing N842400 Special School Education C252000 Petroleum and Coal Product Manufacturing nec
N843100 Higher Education
C253200 Industrial Gas Manufacturing
N843200 Technical and Further Education N844000 Other Education
C253300 Synthetic Resin Manufacturing
SPORTS & HIGH PERFORMANCE C294200 Toy and Sporting Good Manufacturing P931110 Racing Clubs and Track Operation (excluding Training and Ownership) P931200 Sports Grounds and Facilities nec P931900 Sports and Services to Sports nec
C253400 Organic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec C253500 Inorganic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec C254900 Chemical Product Manufacturing nec C281300 Automotive Electrical and Instrument Manufacturing C281900 Automotive Component Manufacturing nec C282100 Shipbuilding C282200 Boatbuilding C282400 Aircraft Manufacturing C283100 Photographic and Optical Good Manufacturing C283200 Medical and Surgical Equipment Manufacturing C283900 Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing nec C284100 Computer and Business Machine Manufacturing C284200 Telecommunication Broadcasting & Transceiving Equipment Manufacturing C284900 Electronic Equipment Manufacturing nec C285900 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing nec C286300 Food Processing Machinery Manufacturing C286400 Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing C286600 Pump and Compressor Manufacturing C286700 Commercial Space Heating and Cooling Equipment Manufacturing C286900 Industrial Machinery & Equipment Manufacturing nec J712000 Telecommunication Services L781000 Scientific Research L783200 Information Storage & Retrieval Services
HEALTH SECTOR
FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
C254300 Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Product Manufacturing O861100 Hospitals (except Psychiatric Hospitals)
K732100 Banks
O861200 Psychiatric Hospitals
K732300 Credit Unions
O861300 Nursing Homes
K732900 Deposit Taking Financiers nec
O862100 General Practice Medical Services O862200 Specialist Medical Services O862300 Dental Services O863100 Pathology Services O863200 Optometry and Optical Dispensing O863300 Ambulance Services O863500 Physiotherapy Services O863600 Chiropractic Services O863900 Health Services nec
K733000 Other Financiers
K732200 Building Societies
K741100 Life K741200 Superannuation K742100 Health K742200 General K751100 Financial Asset Broking Services K751900 Services to Finance and Investment nec K752000 Services to Insurance L782100 Architectural Services L782200 Surveying Services L782300 Consultant Engineering Services L782900 Technical Services nec L783100 Data Processing Services L783300 Computer Maintenance Services L783400 Computer Consultancy Services L784100 Legal Services L784200 Accounting Services L785100 Advertising Services L785200 Commercial Art and Display Services L785300 Market Research Services L785400 Business Administrative Services L785500 Business Management Services L786100 Employment Placement Services L786300 Secretarial Services Q962100 Business & Professional Associations
59
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
9 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF AUCKLAND REGION
LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE AND THE AUCKLAND REGION
Sector High Technology
2001 16.8%
2002 17.2%
2003 17.3%
2004 17.6%
2005 18.1%
2006 16.9%
2007 16.5%
Sector High Technology
2001 0.93
2002 0.87
Education
15.0%
15.4%
15.4%
15.9%
16.1%
15.8%
Sports
17.2%
17.2%
18.1%
18.6%
20.3%
20.2%
Health
17.7%
17.5%
17.6%
17.6%
18.0%
Financial & Professional Services
19.4%
19.5%
19.4%
19.6%
Other
15.6%
15.7%
15.9%
Total
16.3%
16.4%
16.5%
2003 0.92
2004 0.94
2005 0.96
2006 0.99
2007 0.89
15.9%
Education
0.98
20.5%
Sports
1.36
1.00
0.97
0.99
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.34
1.52
1.51
1.49
1.49
18.6%
18.5%
Health
1.44
1.21
1.17
1.11
1.20
1.27
1.33
19.6%
19.3%
19.4%
1.30
Financial & Professional Services
0.89
0.91
0.92
0.91
0.87
0.89
15.9%
16.1%
16.2%
16.3%
0.95
Other
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.99
16.6%
16.8%
16.9%
16.9%
0.99
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF NEW ZEALAND Sector
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE & NEW ZEALAND 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
High Technology
6.5%
6.5%
6.6%
6.8%
6.9%
6.3%
2007 6.0%
High Technology
Sector
1.21
1.11
1.17
1.21
1.24
1.29
1.17
Education
3.7%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
Education
0.87
0.95
0.93
0.95
0.95
0.97
0.99
Sports
4.4%
4.4%
4.8%
4.9%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
Sports
1.41
1.41
1.57
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.43
Health
6.0%
5.9%
6.1%
6.0%
6.2%
6.3%
6.3%
Health
1.01
1.00
0.95
1.01
1.09
1.18
1.16
Financial & Professional Services
8.7%
8.7%
8.8%
8.9%
8.9%
8.7%
8.7%
Financial & Professional Services
1.21
1.26
1.30
1.29
1.24
1.28
1.34
Other
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
Other
0.97
0.96
0.96
0.95
0.95
0.93
0.92
Total
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
60
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
10 APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS VALUE OF WORK ($) SECTOR Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Property & Business Services Government Administration & Defence Education Health & Community Services Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services TOTAL
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
TOTAL
155,640
78,000
144,000
60,500
272,942
-
11,000
722,082
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4,236,325
4,104,861
3,136,355
8,400,000
11,023,000
755,442
2,597,000
34,252,983
20,000
150,000
25,000
15,000
148,985
170,000
1,130,000
1,658,985
300,000
-
761,000
881,000
490,000
-
220,000
2,652,000
5,594,063
14,156,200
13,826,000
6,559,000
44,360,000
30,254,600
29,893,500
144,643,363
9,744,600
6,471,400
17,338,000
2,687,800
3,645,500
11,067,700
32,364,500
83,319,500
7,290,000
5,506,400
4,435,000
45,000
2,310,000
115,000
950,000
20,651,400
184,000
409,000
1,838,000
19,900
-
7,844,500
2,720,000
13,015,400
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
110,000
-
-
-
800,000
-
-
910,000
32,015,000
34,900,900
12,617,000
18,719,850
22,274,000
43,738,700
60,333,300
224,598,750
-
-
35,000
-
-
2,500,000
32,000
2,567,000
23,048,788
8,927,500
18,001,000
24,875,000
30,778,289
36,176,000
12,044,443
153,851,020
1,309,000
1,789,000
2,330,000
20,488,000
282,000
669,490
13,324,447
40,191,937
13,380,000
4,800,000
2,695,800
530,000
4,221,000
590,000
639,500
26,856,300
20,000
1,500,000
503,500
-
660,000
10,450,000
330,000
13,463,500
97,407,416
82,793,261
77,685,655
83,281,050
121,265,716
144,331,432
156,589,690
763,354,220
61
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
NUMBER OF BUILDING CONSENTS (NON-RESIDENTIAL) 2000 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Property & Business Services Government Administration & Defence Education Health & Community Services Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services TOTAL
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
TOTAL
4
3
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
0
1
19
0
0
0
14
11
7
0
10
11
3
6
62
1
5
1
0
2
1
10
3
2
24
4
6
5
0
2
11
18
15
18
12
41
21
17
135
17
11
15
10
10
14
8
85
4
4
9
1
3
2
1
24
3
4
9
1
0
7
4
28
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
19
21
13
21
14
24
14
126
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
3
24
21
22
26
22
24
12
151
6
8
4
6
4
5
7
40
5
3
5
2
7
3
1
26
1
3
4
0
4
4
2
18
111
109
116
98
138
111
78
761
62
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
11 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE Employment Projections [FTEs] 2011
2016
2021
2026
% Change Between Periods
OCCUPATIONS
2006
2006-11
Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators
5,217
5,722
6,231
6,746
7,267
7,808
9.7%
Farmers and Farm Managers
84
87
93
98
104
106
3.6%
Specialist Managers
10,962
12,024
13,092
14,150
15,207
16,282
9.7%
Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers
3,888
4,246
4,616
4,981
5,356
5,725
9.2%
Arts and Media Professionals
1,182
1,304
1,435
1,569
1,712
1,865
Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professionals
7,089
7,777
8,478
9,188
9,931
Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals
3,498
3,877
4,268
4,675
Education Professionals
5,250
5,617
5,984
Health Professionals
3,603
3,857
ICT Professionals
3,006
3,321
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
1,866
Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians
2011-16
Rank
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2006 - 2031
8.9%
8.3%
7.7%
7.4%
49.7%
18
3
6.9%
5.4%
6.1%
1.9%
26.2%
42
42
8.9%
8.1%
7.5%
7.1%
48.5%
20
1
8.7%
7.9%
7.5%
6.9%
47.2%
22
6
10.3%
10.0%
9.3%
9.1%
8.9%
57.8%
6
27
10,706
9.7%
9.0%
8.4%
8.1%
7.8%
51.0%
16
2
5,110
5,581
10.8%
10.1%
9.5%
9.3%
9.2%
59.5%
3
5
6,317
6,615
6,869
7.0%
6.5%
5.6%
4.7%
3.8%
30.8%
41
10
4,116
4,352
4,566
4,751
7.0%
6.7%
5.7%
4.9%
4.1%
31.9%
40
15
3,655
4,004
4,379
4,783
10.5%
10.1%
9.5%
9.4%
9.2%
59.1%
4
7
2,038
2,218
2,400
2,585
2,777
9.2%
8.8%
8.2%
7.7%
7.4%
48.8%
19
21
2,199
2,422
2,643
2,872
3,112
3,356
10.1%
9.1%
8.7%
8.4%
7.8%
52.6%
14
14
Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers
2,058
2,253
2,454
2,662
2,878
3,099
9.5%
8.9%
8.5%
8.1%
7.7%
50.6%
17
17
Construction Trades Workers
2,085
2,360
2,622
2,867
3,096
3,308
13.2%
11.1%
9.3%
8.0%
6.8%
58.7%
5
13
Electro- tech. & Telecommunications Trades Workers
1,161
1,307
1,456
1,602
1,746
1,895
12.6%
11.4%
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
63.2%
2
26
Food Trades Workers
1,188
1,312
1,442
1,578
1,716
1,859
10.4%
9.9%
9.4%
8.7%
8.3%
56.5%
8
28
Skilled Animal and Horticultural Workers
750
819
890
961
1,026
1,090
9.2%
8.7%
8.0%
6.8%
6.2%
45.3%
25
37
Other Technicians and Trades Workers
2,520
2,760
2,978
3,201
3,420
3,645
9.5%
7.9%
7.5%
6.8%
6.6%
44.6%
28
16
Health and Welfare Support Workers
576
624
673
728
781
829
8.3%
7.9%
8.2%
7.3%
6.1%
43.9%
30
39
Carers and Aides
2,241
2,409
2,582
2,745
2,896
3,035
7.5%
7.2%
6.3%
5.5%
4.8%
35.4%
38
24
Hospitality Workers
1,836
2,055
2,291
2,541
2,808
3,092
11.9%
11.5%
10.9%
10.5%
10.1%
68.4%
1
12
Protective Service Workers
1,746
1,876
2,004
2,131
2,243
2,344
7.4%
6.8%
6.3%
5.3%
4.5%
34.2%
39
30
Sports and Personal Service Workers
1,923
2,117
2,317
2,518
2,727
2,956
10.1%
9.4%
8.7%
8.3%
8.4%
53.7%
10
18
Office Managers and Program Administrators
1,824
1,994
2,170
2,340
2,515
2,693
9.3%
8.8%
7.8%
7.5%
7.1%
47.6%
21
23
Personal Assistants and Secretaries
1,746
1,917
2,093
2,273
2,452
2,642
9.8%
9.2%
8.6%
7.9%
7.7%
51.3%
15
22
General Clerical Workers
3,597
3,930
4,261
4,595
4,924
5,254
9.3%
8.4%
7.8%
7.2%
6.7%
46.1%
23
9
Inquiry Clerks and Receptionists
2,031
2,214
2,396
2,580
2,768
2,950
9.0%
8.2%
7.7%
7.3%
6.6%
45.2%
26
20
Numerical Clerks
3,024
3,302
3,580
3,855
4,134
4,417
9.2%
8.4%
7.7%
7.2%
6.8%
46.1%
24
11
Clerical and Office Support Workers
1,026
1,113
1,204
1,294
1,383
1,477
8.5%
8.2%
7.5%
6.9%
6.8%
44.0%
29
33
Other Clerical and Administrative Workers
2,199
2,396
2,592
2,790
2,990
3,193
9.0%
8.2%
7.6%
7.2%
6.8%
45.2%
27
19
Sales Representatives and Agents
4,242
4,604
4,954
5,298
5,630
5,945
8.5%
7.6%
6.9%
6.3%
5.6%
40.1%
35
8
Sales Assistants and Salespersons
5,928
6,421
6,907
7,374
7,830
8,261
8.3%
7.6%
6.8%
6.2%
5.5%
39.4%
36
4
63
2031
%
#
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Employment Projections [FTEs]
% Change Between Periods
Rank
OCCUPATIONS
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2006 - 2031
%
Sales Support Workers
1,542
1,676
1,810
1,941
2,073
2,196
8.7%
8.0%
7.2%
6.8%
5.9%
42.4%
32
29
Machine and Stationary Plant Operators
1,185
1,273
1,364
1,454
1,547
1,635
7.4%
7.1%
6.6%
6.4%
5.7%
38.0%
37
34
Mobile Plant Operators
204
225
249
273
292
312
10.3%
10.7%
9.6%
7.0%
6.8%
52.9%
13
41
Road and Rail Drivers
1,278
1,387
1,492
1,597
1,699
1,796
8.5%
7.6%
7.0%
6.4%
5.7%
40.5%
34
32
Storepersons
1,032
1,121
1,209
1,292
1,378
1,457
8.6%
7.9%
6.9%
6.7%
5.7%
41.2%
33
35
Cleaners and Laundry Workers
1,392
1,539
1,689
1,844
2,014
2,184
10.6%
9.7%
9.2%
9.2%
8.4%
56.9%
7
25
Construction and Mining Labourers
528
589
653
712
770
825
11.6%
10.9%
9.0%
8.1%
7.1%
56.3%
9
38
Factory Process Workers
1,098
1,207
1,317
1,436
1,556
1,682
9.9%
9.1%
9.0%
8.4%
8.1%
53.2%
12
31
Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers
339
366
394
425
454
483
8.0%
7.7%
7.9%
6.8%
6.4%
42.5%
31
40
Food Preparation Assistants
645
710
775
848
919
989
10.1%
9.2%
9.4%
8.4%
7.6%
53.3%
11
36
Other Labourers
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
43
43
Not Elsewhere Included
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
43
43
TOTAL OCCUPATIONS
100,788
110,168
119,647
129,107
138,609
148,152
9.3%
8.6%
7.9%
7.4%
6.9%
47.0%
64
#
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
12 APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR -
10.00
Horticulture & fruit growing
0.01
Dairy cattle farm ing
0.02
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
0.72 0.55
Mining & quarrying
0.02 0.62
Dairy prod m anuf
47.67
Other food m anuf
38.75
Beverage, m alt & tobacco m anuf
2.21
Textile & apparel m anuf
52.97
Wood prod m anuf
17.14
Paper & paper prod m anuf
21.42
Printing, publishing & recorded m edia
4.42
Petroleum & industrial chem m anuf
13.57
Rubber, plastic & other chem m anuf
40.77
Non-m etallic m ineral prod m anuf
2.37
Basic m etal m anuf
46.75
Sheet & fabricated m etal prod m anuf
42.96
Trans equipm ent m anuf
25.05
Machinery & equipm ent m anuf
92.38
Furniture & other m anuf Electricity generation & supply
15.49 0.00
Gas supply
-
Water supply
-
Construction
4.13
Wholesale trade
83.11
Retail trade
34.22
Accom m odation, restaurants & bars
44.26
Road trans
8.17
Water & rail trans
41.74
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
87.45
Com m unication svcs
17.98
Finance Insurance
2.38 0.75
Svcs to finance & investm ent
1.45
Real estate Owner-occupied dwellings
2.32 -
Business svcs Central governm ent
49.36 0.33
Local governm ent
0.05
Education
0.01
Health & com m unity svcs
0.26
Cultural & recreational svcs Personal & other com m unity svcs
100.00
0.24
Fishing
Meat & m eat prod m anuf
40.00
-
Forestry & logging
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
30.00
4.32
Livestock & cropping farm ing
Other farm ing
20.00
16.16 5.44
65
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
13 APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES SECTOR
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
Horticulture & fruit growing
-1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Livestock & cropping farming
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Dairy cattle farming
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Other farming
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Forestry & logging
4.6%
0.1%
1.4%
0.8%
0.0%
Fishing
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Mining & quarrying
-2.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
-7.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Meat & meat prod manufacturing
3.1%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
Dairy prod manufacturing
7.2%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
Other food manufacturing
5.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing
8.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Wood prod manufacturing
0.9%
0.1%
1.4%
0.8%
0.0%
Paper & paper prod manufacturing
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing
-0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
-0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing
-1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Basic metal manufacturing
3.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
0.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Trans equipment manufacturing
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
5.2%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
Furniture & other manufacturing
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Electricity generation & supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Gas supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Water supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Construction
11.7%
7.4%
5.4%
4.3%
3.6%
Wholesale trade
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
Retail trade
3.0%
3.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
8.3%
7.1%
6.3%
5.8%
5.4%
Road trans
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
Water & rail trans
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Air trans, services to trans & storage
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
Communication services
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.4%
Finance
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
Insurance
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-0.9%
-0.6%
Services to finance & investment
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
Real estate
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
Owner-occupied dwellings
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Business services
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
Central government
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Local government
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Education
252.4%
17.7%
11.2%
8.5%
7.0%
Health & community services
44.4%
15.6%
10.5%
8.2%
6.9%
Cultural & recreational services
11.3%
9.2%
8.0%
7.2%
6.7%
Personal & other community services
12.3%
9.8%
8.5%
7.7%
7.2%
66
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
14 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS
RANKING
CONTRIBUTION - %
[$2004MILLION] 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Horticulture & fruit growing
11
11
12
12
13
14
39
39
39
40
40
40
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Livestock & cropping farming
5
6
6
7
7
8
42
42
42
42
42
42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dairy cattle farming
7
7
8
9
9
10
41
41
41
41
41
41
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other farming
1
1
1
1
1
1
46
46
46
46
46
46
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
4
4
5
5
6
6
43
43
43
43
43
43
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Forestry & logging
12
15
16
17
19
20
38
38
38
38
38
38
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Fishing
3
4
4
4
4
4
44
44
44
44
44
44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mining & quarrying
2
3
3
3
4
4
45
45
45
45
45
45
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
0
0
0
0
0
0
48
48
48
48
48
48
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Meat & meat prod manuf
90
100
109
119
128
137
30
30
30
30
30
28
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Dairy prod manuf
178
234
275
323
379
446
21
19
15
15
14
14
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
Other food manuf
134
155
176
200
227
257
23
23
23
23
23
23
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
13
15
17
19
21
23
37
37
37
37
37
37
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Textile & apparel manuf
104
112
118
124
130
136
26
26
26
28
28
29
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Wood prod manuf
71
80
87
97
105
113
31
31
31
31
31
31
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Paper & paper prod manuf
65
73
81
89
98
107
33
33
33
32
32
32
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Printing, publishing & recorded media
280
313
347
383
421
461
12
12
12
13
13
13
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
36
39
42
45
49
52
36
36
36
36
36
36
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf
270
287
307
327
347
368
13
13
14
14
16
16
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf
55
64
73
83
93
103
35
35
34
34
34
33
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Basic metal manuf
66
76
81
87
94
101
32
32
32
33
33
34
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf
211
236
265
297
331
368
17
17
19
18
17
17
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
Trans equipment manuf
97
110
117
123
129
136
28
27
28
29
29
30
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Machinery & equipment manuf
215
265
332
416
524
662
16
14
13
12
10
9
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.8
Furniture & other manuf
121
137
151
165
179
192
24
24
24
24
24
24
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Electricity generation & supply
96
105
115
125
134
142
29
29
29
27
27
27
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
67
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS
RANKING
CONTRIBUTION - %
[$2004MILLION] 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Gas supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
47
47
47
47
47
47
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Water supply
10
11
12
13
14
15
40
40
40
39
39
39
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Construction
887
1046
1206
1366
1526
1686
5
4
4
3
3
3
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.1
Wholesale trade
1898
2113
2338
2564
2792
3020
1
1
1
1
1
1
12.8
12.8
12.9
12.9
12.8
12.7
Retail trade
818
909
1005
1102
1201
1298
6
6
6
6
6
6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
154
179
208
240
276
316
22
22
22
22
22
22
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
Road trans
119
132
145
159
173
187
25
25
25
25
25
25
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Water & rail trans
64
67
69
72
75
78
34
34
35
35
35
35
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
Air trans, services to trans & storage
184
207
232
258
287
319
20
21
21
21
21
21
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Communication services
898
984
1075
1166
1258
1347
4
5
5
5
5
5
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
Finance
215
239
265
291
317
344
15
16
18
19
19
19
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Insurance
320
353
386
419
452
482
11
11
11
11
12
12
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
Services to finance & investment
223
247
272
297
322
346
14
15
16
17
18
18
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Real estate
675
752
833
914
994
1073
7
7
7
7
7
7
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
Owner-occupied dwellings
1026
1128
1234
1336
1434
1524
3
3
3
4
4
4
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
Business services
1515
1745
2004
2295
2629
3014
2
2
2
2
2
10.2
10.6
11.0
11.5
12.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Central government
405
446
488
529
568
Local government
98
108
118
128
138
Education
322
360
400
441
483
Health & community services
503
555
609
662
713
Cultural & recreational services
205
234
269
307
350
Personal & other community services
186
209
234
261
290
605 147 525 761 399 321
9
9
9
9
9
27
28
27
26
26
10
10
10
10
11
8
8
8
8
8
18
18
17
16
15
19
20
20
20
20
68
2 10 26 11 8 15 20
12.7 2.6 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 1.4
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
15 APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR SECTOR
Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agri, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manuf Dairy prod manuf Other food manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Textile & apparel manuf Wood prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Basic metal manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Trans equipment manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Furniture & other manuf Electricity generation & supply Gas supply Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage
Value Added Projections [$2004million]
% Change Btwn Periods
Ranking
% Contribution
AAGR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-
2011-
2016-
2021-
2026-
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6 1 3 0 3 5 1 1 0 2 8 41 5 43 17 27 134 8 182 29 26 96 37 113 59 4 0 1 340 894 559 93 49 47 76
6 1 3 0 4 6 1 1 0 3 10 47 5 46 19 31 150 9 193 34 30 107 42 139 67 4 0 2 402 996 621 108 54 49 86
6 1 3 0 4 6 1 1 0 3 12 54 6 48 21 34 166 10 207 39 32 120 44 174 74 4 0 2 463 1102 687 126 60 51 96
6 2 4 0 4 7 1 1 0 3 14 61 7 51 23 37 184 11 220 44 34 134 47 218 81 5 0 2 525 1208 754 146 65 53 107
7 2 4 0 5 7 1 1 0 3 17 69 7 53 25 41 202 11 234 49 37 150 49 275 87 5 0 2 586 1316 821 167 71 55 119
7 2 4 0 5 8 1 1 0 4 19 78 8 56 27 45 221 12 248 55 40 167 52 348 94 5 0 2 647 1423 887 192 77 57 132
11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 25.0 14.6 0.0 7.0 11.8 14.8 11.9 12.5 6.0 17.2 15.4 11.5 13.5 23.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 18.2 11.4 11.1 16.1 10.2 4.3 13.2
16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 14.9 20.0 4.3 10.5 9.7 10.7 11.1 7.3 14.7 6.7 12.1 4.8 25.2 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 10.6 10.6 16.7 11.1 4.1 11.6
21 0.0 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 13.0 16.7 6.3 9.5 8.8 10.8 10.0 6.3 12.8 6.3 11.7 6.8 25.3 9.5 25.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 9.6 9.8 15.9 8.3 3.9 11.5
26 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 13.1 0.0 3.9 8.7 10.8 9.8 0.0 6.4 11.4 8.8 11.9 4.3 26.1 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 8.9 8.9 14.4 9.2 3.8 11.2
31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 11.8 13.0 14.3 5.7 8.0 9.8 9.4 9.1 6.0 12.2 8.1 11.3 6.1 26.5 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 8.1 8.0 15.0 8.5 3.6 10.9
35 42 39 46 40 36 43 44 47 41 33 27 37 26 32 30 14 34 13 29 31 18 28 16 23 38 48 45 8 1 4 20 24 25 21
35 43 40 46 39 36 44 45 47 41 33 26 37 27 32 30 14 34 13 29 31 19 28 15 22 38 48 42 8 2 4 18 24 25 21
35 43 40 46 39 36 44 45 47 41 33 25 37 27 32 30 15 34 13 29 31 19 28 14 22 38 48 42 8 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 25 36 27 32 30 15 34 13 29 31 19 28 14 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 25 36 27 32 30 15 34 14 29 31 19 28 13 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 24 36 27 32 30 15 34 14 28 31 19 29 11 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 25 26 21
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.4 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 12.0 7.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.3 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 12.0 7.5 1.3 0.6 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 11.9 7.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 11.8 7.4 1.4 0.6 0.5 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.1 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 11.7 7.3 1.5 0.6 0.5 1.1
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.0 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.4 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 11.6 7.2 1.6 0.6 0.5 1.1
69
20062031 0.6 2.8 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.2 2.6 1.7 2.2 1.4 4.6 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.8 2.2
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Owner-occupied dwellings Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
557 193 204 96 538 843 883 272 60 262 387 109 115
611 214 224 106 600 926 1016 300 66 293 427 125 129
667 237 246 116 665 1014 1167 328 73 326 468 144 145
724 261 267 127 729 1098 1337 355 79 359 509 164 162
780 285 288 138 793 1178 1531 382 85 393 549 187 179
836 309 307 148 856 1252 1756 406 90 427 586 213 198
9.7 10.9 9.8 10.4 11.5 9.8 15.1 10.3 10.0 11.8 10.3 14.7 12.2
9.2 10.7 9.8 9.4 10.8 9.5 14.9 9.3 10.6 11.3 9.6 15.2 12.4
8.5 10.1 8.5 9.5 9.6 8.3 14.6 8.2 8.2 10.1 8.8 13.9 11.7
7.7 9.2 7.9 8.7 8.8 7.3 14.5 7.6 7.6 9.5 7.9 14.0 10.5
7.2 8.4 6.6 7.2 7.9 6.3 14.7 6.3 5.9 8.7 6.7 13.9 10.6
Industry Total
7429
8313
9253
10230
11246
12308
11.9%
11.3%
10.6%
9.9%
9.4%
Total (Incl. Final Demands)
7999
8946
9951
10993
12072
13197
11.8%
11.2%
10.5%
9.8%
9.3%
70
5 12 11 19 6 3 2 9 22 10 7 17 15
5 12 11 20 6 3 1 9 23 10 7 17 16
5 12 11 20 6 3 1 9 23 10 7 17 16
6 12 11 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
6 12 11 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
6 12 13 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
7.5 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.3 11.9 3.7 0.8 3.5 5.2 1.5 1.5
7.3 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.1 12.2 3.6 0.8 3.5 5.1 1.5 1.6
7.2 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.0 12.6 3.5 0.8 3.5 5.1 1.6 1.6
7.1 2.6 2.6 1.2 7.1 10.7 13.1 3.5 0.8 3.5 5.0 1.6 1.6
100%
6.9 2.5 2.6 1.2 7.1 10.5 13.6 3.4 0.8 3.5 4.9 1.7 1.6
6.8 2.5 2.5 1.2 7.0 10.2 14.3 3.3 0.7 3.5 4.8 1.7 1.6
1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.7 2.2
2.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
16 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES) Sector
EMPLOYMENT / FTES
% Change Btwn Periods
Ranking
% Share
AAGR 2006-
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.31% 0.97% 0.93% -0.53%
93
7.1
6.7
5.0
6.0
4.5
36
36
36
36
36
36
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.14%
100
4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 14.2 10.2 11.5 2.1 6.2 7.1
7.1 0.0 20.0 0.0 5.8 13.2 9.9 6.9 1.7 7.3 6.6
5.5 -6.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 13.9 9.7 6.5 1.4 5.4 6.2
4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 13.5 9.5 6.1 1.1 3.9 5.9
35 42 44 48 37 34 25 39 21 28 31
35 42 44 48 37 34 25 39 21 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 32 24 39 23 28 31
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2
1.32% 0.00% 0.73% 0.00% 1.00% 3.08% 1.97% 1.69% 0.42% 1.23% 1.35%
160
27
28
42
45
47
49
51
53
16
16
15
15
14
70
75
80
84
89
72
81
85
91
96
15
16
16
16
15
15
5
5
5
6
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
49
52
55
57
59
2031 33 40 38 42
157
26
2026
2026-31
32 40 38 42
154
24
2021
2021-26
32 40 38 42
150
23
2016
2016-21
32 40 38 42
146
22
2011
2011-16
32 40 38 41
148
2006
2006-11
32 40 38 41
2031
1.9 3.7 3.9 0.0
2026
1.9 3.8 4.1 -6.7
2021
2.7 8.3 4.3 0.0
2016
2.7 4.3 4.4 -6.3
2011
14
-1.4 4.5 7.1 0.0
2006 Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agri, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manuf Dairy prod manuf Other food manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Textile & apparel manuf Wood prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Basic metal manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Trans equipment manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Furniture & other manuf Electricity generation & supply Gas supply
2031
83
106
121
137
156
177
579
648
714
785
861
943
23
26
29
31
33
35
885
924
943
959
972
983
296
322
342
367
387
402
181
197
211
225
239
253
12.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 27.7 11.9 13.0 4.4 8.8 8.8
1880
2035
2188
2338
2488
2635
8.2
7.5
6.9
6.4
5.9
12
12
13
14
14
14
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.36%
110
114
119
125
130
134
3.6
4.4
5.0
4.0
3.1
33
33
34
34
34
34
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.79%
1387
1426
1476
1523
1567
1608
2.8
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.6
15
15
16
16
16
16
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
0.59%
259
292
323
354
384
413
233
259
269
280
291
304
12.7 11.2
10.6 3.9
9.6 4.1
8.5 3.9
7.6 4.5
29 30
29 30
28 30
28 30
28 30
27 30
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.2
0.3 0.2
1.88% 1.07%
1270
1374
1496
1621
1749
1884
8.2
8.9
8.4
7.9
7.7
16
16
15
15
15
15
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.59%
9.9 19.4 9.7 0.0 0.0
2.5 21.3 6.7 16.7 0.0
2.0 21.5 5.6 0.0 0.0
1.8 21.9 4.9 0.0 0.0
1.5 22.4 4.1 0.0 0.0
24 14 17 43 47
24 14 17 43 47
24 12 17 43 47
24 11 17 43 47
24 11 17 43 47
25 10 17 43 47
0.8 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.8 1.9 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.8 2.1 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.7 2.4 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.7 2.7 1.2 0.0 0.0
0.6 3.1 1.2 0.0 0.0
0.69% 3.94% 1.21% 0.62% 0.00%
696
765
784
800
814
826
1515
1809
2194
2666
3249
3978
1136
1246
1329
1404
1473
1533
6
6
7
7
7
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
71
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
Industry Total
16738
0.0 14.2 7.8 7.6
0.0 11.6 7.1 7.1
25.0 9.7 6.2 6.2
0.0 8.2 5.4 5.4
0.0 7.0 4.7 4.7
5145
12.8
12.5
11.8
11.4
11.0
9
9
9
9
1463 327
7.1 0.6
6.6 0.6
5.8 0.6
5.4 0.6
4.9 0.9
18 27
18 28
18 29
18 29
4
4
4
5
5
5
6703
7656
8547
9373
10139
10845
10435
11250
12049
12792
13488
14124
12394
13338
14285
15167
15991
2934
3309
3722
4162
4636
1096
1174
1251
1324
1395
316
318
320
322
324
45 5 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
0.0 7.7 11.9 14.2
0.0 8.0 11.8 14.0
0.0 8.3 11.7 13.8
0.0 8.4 11.5 13.6
0.0 8.5 11.3 13.4
0.0 8.5 11.1 13.2
0.90% 1.94% 1.22% 1.21%
9
8
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
2.27%
18 29
18 29
1.3 0.4
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.16% 0.14%
754
819
888
958
1032
1108
8.6
8.4
7.9
7.7
7.4
23
23
23
23
23
22
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.55%
3650
3874
4098
4304
4493
4660
828
892
956
1016
1074
1129
1089
1161
1232
1294
1349
1394
1043
1118
1191
1258
1321
1377
2011
2170
2327
2471
2603
2720
12656
14106
15689
17396
19288
21409
4311
4591
4867
5106
5311
5471
467
498
528
555
577
595
5192
5612
6044
6453
6840
7195
6725
7178
7629
8027
8375
8657
1721
1909
2117
2340
2584
2854
6.1 7.7 6.6 7.2 7.9 11.5 6.5 6.6 8.1 6.7 10.9
5.8 7.2 6.1 6.5 7.2 11.2 6.0 6.0 7.7 6.3 10.9
5.0 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 10.9 4.9 5.1 6.8 5.2 10.5
4.4 5.7 4.3 5.0 5.3 10.9 4.0 4.0 6.0 4.3 10.4
3.7 5.1 3.3 4.2 4.5 11.0 3.0 3.1 5.2 3.4 10.4
8 22 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 4 13
8 22 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 5 13
8 21 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 5 14
8 21 19 20 12 1 7 26 6 5 13
8 21 19 20 12 1 7 26 6 5 13
9 21 19 20 13 1 7 26 6 5 12
4.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 14.5 4.9 0.5 5.9 7.7 2.0
4.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 14.8 4.8 0.5 5.9 7.5 2.0
4.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 15.2 4.7 0.5 5.8 7.4 2.0
3.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.2 15.6 4.6 0.5 5.8 7.2 2.1
3.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 2.2 16.2 4.5 0.5 5.7 7.0 2.2
3.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 2.1 16.8 4.3 0.5 5.7 6.8 2.2
0.98% 1.25% 0.99% 1.12% 1.22% 2.12% 0.96% 0.97% 1.31% 1.02% 2.04%
2245
2442
2650
2858
3072
3291
8.8
8.5
7.8
7.5
7.1
10
10
10
10
10
11
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
1.54%
87549
95424
103413
111299
119209
127150
9.0
8.4
7.6
7.1
72
6.7
100
2.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
17 APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Insurance
2.82
2.83
2.83
2.83
2.84
2.84
Communication services
2.46
2.44
2.43
2.41
2.4
2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
1.89
1.86
1.83
1.81
1.78
1.76
Wholesale trade
1.86
1.85
1.84
1.83
1.82
1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.64
Services to finance & investment
1.48
1.47
1.46
1.45
1.44
1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.45
Real estate
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
Central government
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.45
Business services
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
Retail trade
1.22
1.23
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
Construction
1.09
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
Personal & other community services
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
Trans equipment manufacturing
0.99
0.99
0.97
0.96
0.94
0.93
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.97
0.98
1
1.01
1.02
1.04
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.97
0.97
Health & community services
0.91
0.93
0.94
0.96
0.97
0.99
Education
0.89
0.9
0.91
0.91
0.92
0.93
Cultural & recreational services
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.8
0.79
0.78
Water & rail trans
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.78
Basic metal manufacturing
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.81
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.8
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
0.71
0.7
0.68
0.67
0.65
0.64
Local government
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.72
Road trans
0.64
0.64
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.62
Paper & paper prod manufacturing
0.61
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.61
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
Air trans, services to trans & storage
0.51
0.52
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.51
Other food manufacturing
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.41
0.4
0.39
Wood prod manufacturing
0.3
0.3
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.32
Dairy prod manufacturing
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
Forestry & logging
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
Horticulture & fruit growing
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
Water supply
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Fishing
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
Other farming
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
Mining & quarrying
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Meat & meat prod manufacturing
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Electricity generation & supply
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Dairy cattle farming
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
Livestock & cropping farming
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gas supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
Finance
73
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The figures reflect the ranked sectors – ranked in terms of 2006 FTEs. The variables presented in the figures, the following applies: • •
X-axis Y-Axis
movement in the SLQ between 2006-2011 SLQ2006
•
Bubble size FTE2006. SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 3.00 Comm Srvs
2.50 Business svcs
Retail trade
2.00 W-Sale Trade
1.50
Central government Construction
1.00
Health & comm svcs
Accom, resta. & bars
0.50 Education
Personal & other comm svcs
0.00 -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 3.50 3.00 Insurance
2.50 Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf
2.00 1.50
Printing, publ. & rec. media
Svcs to finance & investment Furniture & other manuf
Real estate Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Road trans
1.00 0.50 0.00 -2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
74
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 1.20 Textile & apparel manuf
Trans equipment manuf
1.00 Water & rail trans
0.80
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Local government
Basic metal manuf Finance
0.60
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
Other food manuf
0.40
Wood prod manuf
0.20
0.00 -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 0.70 Paper & paper prod manuf
0.60
Dairy prod manuf Horticulture & fruit growing
0.50 0.40 0.30
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Dairy cattle farming Meat & meat prod manuf Livestock & cropping farming
0.20 0.10 0.00
Forestry & logging Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
-0.10 -15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
75
5.0%
10.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006
0.09 Water supply
0.08 0.07
Fishing
0.06 0.05 0.04
Other farming
0.03
Mining & quarrying
0.02
Electricity generation & supply
0.01 0.00 -20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
76
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
18 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS SUMMARY OF SECTORAL MOVEMENTS & SHIFT SHARE (QUADRANTS) PERIOD
2006-2011
2026-2031
2006-31
2006-31
SLQ (PERIOD)
2006
2026
2006
2031
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 4 4 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 4 4 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 1 4 4 4 4
Business svcs Central government Construction Insurance Personal & other community svcs Retail trade Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Education Forestry & logging Health & community svcs Local government Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Textile & apparel manuf Accommodation, restaurants & bars Basic metal manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf Electricity generation & supply Finance Fishing Gas supply Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Other farming Other food manuf Owner-occupied dwellings Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Road trans Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wood prod manuf Communication svcs Furniture & other manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment Wholesale trade
77
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
78
North Shore City full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices
Incorporating Executive Summary November 2008
Promoting North Shore Economic Development
Foreword This report is designed to assist businesses make important decisions that will impact not only their own organisations’ development but also the growth of the local economy. By forecasting the future demand and supply of skilled labour across multiple industry types, the report also represents a baseline for ongoing economic planning. This data, supported by assessments of labour productivity and residential occupancy, is intended to support the development of business cases for enterprises looking to grow, invest and locate in North Shore City. Enterprise North Shore and Market Economics Ltd would like to thank the businesses and organisations who have contributed to this report by way of completing the Economic Futures Survey.
Terry Hoskins Chief Executive Enterprise North Shore
contents PART ONE - EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 1 2031 Future Scenario & Targeted Business Sectors...................................................... 3
1.1 Future Economic Make-up......................................................................................... 4
1.2 Targeted Sectors - Future Performance..................................................................... 5
1.2.1 Selected ratios................................................................................................... 7
2 Key Indicators................................................................................................................... 8
2.1 Employment................................................................................................................ 9
2.2 Economic Output.......................................................................................................10
2.3 Targeted Business Sectors........................................................................................10
3 Conclusion.......................................................................................................................11 4 Next steps........................................................................................................................11 PART TWO - FULL REPORT................................................................................................... 13
Table of Contents
Front cover: Aerial shot of Lake Pupuke, Takapuna, and The Sugar Grab sculpture at Chelsea Sugar.
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY This Executive Summary highlights the local economy’s ability to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to North Shore households through wealth creation and employment opportunities. It forms part of a package of information prepared for Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council and reflects: • A summary of the ‘Future Scenario’ based on a modelled economic future, and • The key indicators of growth in terms of demographics and high-
level economic characteristics of the City. Its aim is to set a baseline for the future and endorse the focus on the targeted business sectors which are clustered around high technology, education, sports, health, and professional business services as key drivers of growth. In order to quantify a likely, optimal future, Enterprise North Shore will continue to work with businesses to define the actual potential inherent in North Shore as a location for these key industry groups, and to address issues or
threats to economic growth. While the resulting data suggests strong growth, it is clear that the ideal future economic environment will not occur without intervention. Enterprise North Shore, in conjunction with North Shore City Council, has a vital role to play in facilitating growth in the targeted sectors and the economy overall, by ensuring investment conditions in North Shore are appropriate and that issues such as access to skilled labour and other key factors of production are addressed.
1 2031 Future Scenario & TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many opportunities, issues and challenges for the City. This report seeks to develop and describe a ‘Future Scenario’ for the North Shore economy as generated by using the Economic Futures Model (EFM). The ‘Future Scenario’ is a projection of the likely nature of the economy (in 2031) based on historic sectoral trends, underlying characteristics and industry dynamics. The modelling work was
augmented with an internet-based survey. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to businesses on the Enterprise North Shore (ENS) mailing list and links to the website were published in the Enterprise magazine. The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights key shifts in the economy in terms of employment, output and value added with a focus on the targeted business sectors. Similarly, future employment requirements have been determined by occupation and sector.
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The strongest growth in percentage terms is projected to occur in high technology-based enterprises, including Marine, ICT, Electronics and Niche Manufacturing.
1.1 Future Economic Make-up Current productive GDP generated within North Shore City is approximately $12.7bn (2006) and is expected to grow by $8.8bn to some $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68% growth in total). The strongest growth in percentage terms is projected to occur in high technology-based enterprises, including Marine, ICT, Electronics and Niche Manufacturing. In terms of actual growth, Business Services will add some $873m in contribution to GDP over the next 25 or so years. Strong contributions are also made by the Wholesale sector ($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m).
Business Services takes the lead from Wholesaling as the largest contributor to GDP in the City (at almost $1.8bn by 2031) as the structure of the economy moves towards a more services-orientated model. This confirms one of the North Shore economy’s defining characteristics, that of being consumption driven. ENS aims to reduce this dependence on consumption-led economic growth by attracting more large businesses to the North Shore and increasing the local employment base. The table reflects the GDP contributions by the top 20 sectors.
CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20), 2006 – 2031
2006 ($’m) 2031 ($’m)
#
Sector
$
Sector
$
1
Wholesale trade
894
Business services
1,756
2
Business services
883
Wholesale trade
1,423
3
Owner-occupied dwellings
843
Owner-occupied dwellings
1,252
4
Retail trade
559
Retail trade
887
5
Communication services
557
Real estate
856
6
Real estate
538
Communication services
836
7
Health & community services 387
Construction
647
8
Construction 340
Health & community services
586
9
Central government 272
Education 427
10
Education 262
Central government 406
11
Insurance 204
Machinery & equipment manufacturing 348
12
Finance
193
Finance 309
13
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
182
Insurance 307
14
Printing, publishing & recorded media
134
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing 248
15
Personal & other community services
115
Printing, publishing & recorded media 221
16
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
113
Cultural & recreational services 213
17
Cultural & recreational services
109
Personal & other community services
198
18
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
96
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
192
19
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing 29
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing 167
20
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
Services to finance & investment
93
148
1.2 Targeted Sectors Future Performance The targeted business sectors are expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years or so. The table below highlights growth in contribution to GDP made by the targeted business sectors to 2031. These sectors increase their contribution to total value added in North Shore from 26% to almost 28% by 2031. The strongest growth is expected to occur in the High Technology sector with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. Financial and Business Services is projected to grow at 2.4% (these growth rates are in line with survey responses from businesses in these sectors). In total the targeted sectors are expected to be ‘adding value’ of $3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008. In terms of total economic activity the targeted sectors are expected to grow from $3.2bn in Gross Output terms to more than $5.7bn by 2031. As a share of total North Shore activity, the sectors grow from 24.9% to 26.6% by 2031. Employment in the targeted sectors is expected to grow from 23,600 in 2008 to around 36,640 by 2031. The largest sector is Financial and Business Services where growth of more than 7,600 employment opportunities is expected to 2031. In total the targeted sectors are projected to grow (under the ‘Future Scenario’) from 28.3% of North Shore City employment to 28.8% by 2031. While this implies faster growth here than elsewhere in the economy, it is expected to occur at a slower rate than the growth in GDP contribution from targeted sectors (26% - 28%). The relationship between occupation structure and FTEs is not one-to-one as an FTE may be made up of two part-time workers. However, occupation structure provides a robust way of assessing future skills requirements to achieve the economic structure projected under the ‘Future Scenario’ outlook and the following table summarises employment into occupations and indicates growth per occupation in percentage terms as well as the actual numbers.
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Under the ‘Future Scenario’ approximately 127,000 FTEs are forecast to be working on the North Shore by 2031.
VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS (SELECTED YEARS) NZ$’000
2006
High Technology 461,177
2011
2021
2031
521,256
664,254
852,401
Education
54,668
61,136
74,908
89,096
Sports & Perform.
61,592
70,580
92,049
118,654
Financial & Profes.
1,071,232
1,214,177
1,549,351
1,958,799
Health 289,942 319,425 380,140 437,318 Total (Targeted)
1,938,611 2,186,574 2,760,701 3,456,269
North Shore
7,429,000
8,313,000
10,230,000
12,308,000
26.10%
26.30%
26.99%
28.08%
% of North Shore
GROSS OUTPUT – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS (SELECTED YEARS) High Technology Education Sports & Perform. Financial & Profes.
830,880
940,546
1,199,937
1,546,551
67,187
75,116
92,017
109,545
116,642
133,053
173,381 223,542
1,807,717 2,053,666 2,619,925 3,314,878
Health 378,930 417,425 496,948
570,774
Total (Targeted) 3,201,355 3,619,806 4,582,208
5,765,290
North Shore
12,872,000
% of North Shore
14,476,000 17,900,000 21,678,000
24.87%
25.01%
25.60%
26.60%
EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)
2011
2021
High Technology 4,245 4,713
5,790
7,230
1,346
1,501
Education
2006 1,083
1,171
2031
989
1,096
1,333
1,612
12,357
13,663
16,559
19,962
Health 4,928
5,257
5,874
6,333
Sports & Performance Financial & Professional
Total (Targeted) 23,602 25,899 30,902 36,638 North Shore (Total)
83,500
95,424
111,299
127,150
TBAP Share of
28.27%
27.14%
27.77%
28.81%
North Shore
EMPLOYMENT BY OCCUPATION – PROJECTIONS (‘000) Occupation Projections Occupation (in thousands) Growth Occupations 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2006 2006 -2016 -2031 Chief Executives, GMs and Legislators 5.2
5.7
6.2
6.7
7.3
Specialist Managers
11.0
12.0
13.1
14.2
Arts and Media Professionals
1.2
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.7
1.9
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof.
7.1
7.8
8.5
9.2
9.9
10.7
1.0 2.6
15.2 16.3 2.1 0.3
% # 18 3
5.3 20 1 0.7
6 27
1.4 3.6
16 2
5.1
5.6
0.8 2.1 3
6.6
6.9
0.7
1.6 41 10
Health Professionals 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.4 4.6 4.8
0.5
1.1 40 15
ICT Professionals 3.0 3.3 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.8
0.6
1.8 4
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.8
0.4
0.9
19 21
Engin., ICT and Science Tech’s 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.4
0.4
1.2
14 14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades
1.2
1.3
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
0.3
0.7 2 26
Health and Welfare Support
0.6
0.6
0.7
0.7
0.8
Design, Eng., Science & Trans Prof. 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.7 5.3
Education Professionals
5.6
6.0
6.3
5
7
0.8
0.1
0.3 30 39
Carers and Aides 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.7 2.9 3.0
0.3
0.8 38 24
1.9 2.1 2.3 2.5 2.7 3.0
0.4
1.0
Sports and Personal Service Workers Total Other Occupations
51.0
55.8
60.5
70.0 74.7
9.5
23.6
Total Employment
87.5
95.6
103.6 111.5 119.4 127.3
16.1
39.8
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The most significant growth in occupation occurs in Hospitality
65.2
Under the ‘Future Scenario’ approximately 127,000 FTEs are forecast to be working on the North Shore by 2031. This represents growth of some 39,800 from the 2006 position (46% growth). Total occupations in North Shore businesses increase at approximately the same rate (a 47% increase from 101,000 to 148,000). The most significant growth in occupation occurs in Hospitality – in total 68% more are required by 2031 than in 2006. This again points to the consumption base of the North Shore economy and is driven strongly by local population growth and increases in consumption per household and a generally wealthy household base. In terms of percentage growth the next greatest increases are expected in: Electronic Technology and Telecommunications’ workers (63%); Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals (60%); ICT Professionals (59%); and Arts and Media Professionals (58%).
7.8
Ranking Growth
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These are key occupations for the targeted sectors and are required in large numbers in order for the North Shore economy to achieve the projected future. In terms of actual numbers the most growth is required in Specialist Managers, with the economy requiring a further 5,300 by 2031. This is followed by Business and Marketing Professionals (3,620), CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and Design and Engineering professionals (2,080). Should the targeted sectors deliver significant growth, competition for suitably skilled labour will intensify. Significant growth in the Health and Education professions are also anticipated, with an additional 1,150 and 1,620 workers required respectively to meet the growth needs of the City. The ageing of the current workforce, that is potentially uneven across different occupational groups, is likely to intensify the requirements in certain areas (notably in the health professions).
1.2.1 Selected Ratios The value added per FTE is projected to grow for both the targeted sectors and the overall economy, with the targeted sectors’ value added projected to increase by $9,808/FTE (a movement of 11.6%) between 2006 and 2031. The anticipated movements and trends in the individual targeted sectors of the North Shore are summarised in the subsequent table. The relative growth and movements in Financial and Professional, and High Technology sectors revealed the lowest overall growth but from a large base (i.e. these sectors are significantly larger than some of the other sectors - almost 100% larger in some instances). Health is projected to have the largest change in percentage terms. The different sectors’ internal characteristics influence the degree to which the value added per FTE can be developed. This implies that investing in the targeted sectors and encouraging growth in these sectors, will generate more wealth within the economy than focusing on the economy in general.
The importance and dominance of Financial and Professional Services expose the local economy to shocks and external movements in the wider business environment – such as the global economic slowdown caused by the current credit crunch. While the economic modelling incorporated variables to deal with changing demand conditions, the purpose of the modelling was not to predict/forecast the effects on the economy as a result of shocks, such as the credit crunch, or oil price movements, rather to show how the economy responds to alternative future outlooks.
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North Shore’s population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 by 2026.
Some of the risk associated with the exposure could also be translated into opportunities for some targeted sub-sectors. For example, Advertising Services (L785100) might experience an increase for services as firms aim to increase market exposure and attempt to build on existing branding images in times of constrained demand. These activities have strong linkages with the Commercial Art and Display Services (L785200) sector which is also a targeted sub-sector. Another example of a sub-sector which could stand to benefit from the credit crunch and the slowing economy is the Business Management Services (785500) sub-sector. The increased financial pressures is expected to drive enterprises to lower production and inputs costs while increasing productivity. Other factors that will have an impact on the North Shore economy are inflation and interest rates, reducing the purchasing power of domestic households and businesses.
VALUE ADDED/FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS
2008
2031
High Technology
109,826
117,894
Movement % Change 8,068
7.3%
Education
51,411
59,347
7,936
15.4%
Sports & Performance
63,262
73,618
10,356
16.4%
Financial & Professional
91,135
98,126
6,991
7.7%
Health
57,779
69,057
11,278
19.5%
Total (Targeted)
84,528
94,336
9,808
11.6%
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2 North Shore City is second only to the central government-dominated Wellington City, in terms of average household incomes.
Key INDICATORS
The second part of the report summarises key indicators of growth for the North Shore. The North Shore’s population has grown by more than 20,000 residents between 2001 and 2006 and is estimated at 220,300 - approximately 16% of the regional total. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and this growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. The projected growth is faster than projected New Zealand growth, but slower than regional growth which is expected to be between 1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and 2016. Based on Statistics New Zealand projections, North Shore’s population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 by 2026. The City is home to approximately 78,000 households, or 16.9% of the Auckland regional households. Given that the City is home to 16% of the
population, the average household size is lower than the regional average - this points to an older population. Between 2006 and 2011 an additional 5,900 households will reside on the North Shore and by 2026 the North Shore will be host to an additional 27,300 households. This is the equivalent of adding the city of Palmerston North to North Shore in 20 years. In the regional context, the North Shore will capture 13.3% of new households in the 2006-2011 growth period and 14.4% of new households in the 2011 to 2026 period. North Shore City is wealthy in both the regional and national contexts. The median household income is $69,100 (Census 2006), the highest in the region (regional average $63,400) while the national average is $51,400. North Shore City is second only to the central government dominated Wellington City, in terms of average household incomes.
HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS North Shore City
2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
70,800
77,300
83,200
90,100
97,200
104,600
511,200
559,900
609,300
659,400
1,654,000
1,753,100
1,847,800
1,938,300
Auckland Region 419,400 466,700 New Zealand
1,439,800
1,558,300
2.1 Employment From 2001 to 2007 the number of employees on the North Shore increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a net gain of 19,400 or approximately 2,800 jobs per year. This growth accounted for 17.8% of the new jobs created in the Auckland region. During the same period, the City captured only 13.7% of household growth, meaning that in recent times the North Shore economy has been creating jobs at a significantly higher rate than household and population growth (30% faster). While the annual rate of employment creation fluctuated, the average rate at which employment grew (taking the base into account) on the North Shore was higher than either the Auckland or New Zealand rates. This suggests that the North Shore is becoming a greater contributor to both these economies and moving quickly to a more employment self sufficient state. The comparatively faster rate of growth highlights the
growing importance of the North Shore as a business centre in the Auckland and national contexts. The North Shore economy provides more than 10% of regional employment opportunities and is increasingly becoming an employment and business destination. Further, the number of businesses in the North Shore expressed as a percentage of the total of businesses in the region, has also increased, from 16.3% in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007. In a labour-constrained market place (as experienced over the recent past) this growth in employment indicates that the North Shore was a more favourable location to establish businesses and to work (compared to competing employment centres such as the Auckland Central Business District). It also indicates that businesses locating on the North Shore are growing in size (on average) and/or that North Shore City is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
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The report indicates that North Shore City is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
North Shore as % of Auckland Region Employment
2001
2006
2007
12.9%
13.6%
13.7%
2.2 Economic Output Business on the North Shore plays a key role in the regional and New Zealand economies, and in generating wealth for North Shore households. North Shore City accounts for approximately 13.5% of economic activity in the Auckland region (in terms of both value added and output). From a
ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7 3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
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Output
Value added
Employment (ECs)
NZ
2.10%
1.62%
2.26%
ARC
2.41%
2.41%
2.42%
NS
2.12%
2.12%
2.94%
The key growth industries are high technology, education, sports, health and professional business services. 2.3 Targeted Business Sectors Targeted business sectors have been selected on the basis that North Shore City has a comparative advantage in these sectors and that they have the capability to transform the economy, drive economic growth and wealth creation for all North Shore households. They comprise: • High Technology – a broad range of enterprises developing or
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utilising advanced information and communication technologies. This sector includes niche manufacturing, the marine industry, ICT and machinery and equipment manufacturing. • Education – predominantly the tertiary sector but includes other post school education providers, both public and private. • Sports – based around large organisations such as Harbour Sport and the Millennium Centre with its high performance focus. • Health – hospitals, medical specialists and the information technology associated with the health sector. • Financial, Business & Professional Services – service providers to the financial and business sectors
national perspective the North Shore economy captures approximately 5% of economic output and value added. This contribution is generated with a proportionally lower employment base (c.f. 4.4% of national employment being located on the North Shore) implying businesses that add value at a higher than average rate locate here. Growth rates (see the accompanying figure) of value added and output were higher than national levels but marginally below regional rates. In terms of employment growth North Shore City grew faster than both the country as well as Auckland region. The North Shore’s performance is comparatively better than the national trends but only outperforms the regional economy in employment opportunities created.
including services such as computer consulting and data processing activities. The targeted business sectors capture an increasing share of North Shore (and regional and national) employment opportunities, with almost a third (28%) of North Shore employment in the targeted sectors. These sectors also account for a quarter (26%) of economic output and 25% of economic value added. With reference to productivity, these sectors tend to have a value added per employee ratio ($/FTE) that is higher than other sectors of the economy. Furthermore, the value-added per employee (total economy) in the North Shore is higher than the value-added per employee in both the New Zealand and the Auckland region contexts.
3 Conclusion This report highlights the local economy’s ability to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to North Shore households through wealth creation and employment opportunities. Significant additional value added is generated in the City, and significant growth in local employment is forecast. Growth in particular skillsets and occupations is required to sustain output expansion. Capacity building must also be linked with investment in infrastructure, services, plant, and new buildings to support ongoing growth.
Given that current planning policy is to intensify development within the metropolitan urban limits (MUL), it is essential that the growth of North Shore City’s economy is managed – with a focus on the attraction, growth and retention of knowledge-intensive, employee rich enterprises. Consequently, Enterprise North Shore is poised to assist growth in the targeted sectors and the economy overall. Programmes that optimise investment conditions and address issues such as skilled labour requirements and other key factors of production are paramount to the future growth of the City.
4 Next steps This research is ongoing and an opportunity exists to participate in the next round. To contribute to the next report on North Shore City’s Economic Future (due mid 2009), please complete the Economic Futures Survey at: www.ens.org.nz/nsefsurvey Note: the full report, a summary and a copy of this executive summary can be downloaded via this link: www.ens.org.nz/nsefreport Enterprise North Shore and Market Economics Limited would like to thank the North Shore City Council, businesses and individuals from all sectors who helped to make this development of a future scenario possible.
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Economic Futures Report For
North Shore City
full report Tables, Indicators & Appendices November 2008
Promoting North Shore Economic Development
Enterprise North Shore September 2008
TABLE OF CONTENTS PART 1: BACKGROUND ............................................................................................................................ 1 1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION .................................................................................................... 1
2
1.1 1.2
OBJECTIVES & SCOPE .............................................................................................................. 1 APPROACH FOLLOWED ........................................................................................................... 2
1.3 1.4
INFORMATION SOURCES ........................................................................................................ 2 REPORT STRUCTURE ............................................................................................................... 3
THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE............................................................................... 4 2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES ...................................................................................................... 4 2.2 2.3
ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES ................................................................................. 8 ECONOMIC OUTPUT ............................................................................................................... 9
2.4 2.5
PRIORITY SECTORS ................................................................................................................ 10 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT .................................................................................................... 14
2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 17 PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW .............................................................................. 18 3
THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’................................................................................................................ 18 3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL .................................................. 19 3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE ....................................................... 20 3.2.1 VALUE ADDED ................................................................................................................... 20 3.2.2 3.2.3
EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS ............................................................................................... 20 GROSS OUTPUT................................................................................................................. 21
3.2.4 3.2.5
OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE ................................................................................... 21 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE.............................................................................. 22
3.3 3.4
BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS ....................................................................................... 23 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 25
PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW ................................................................ 26 4 MODEL OUTCOMES ....................................................................................................................... 26 4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS .................................................................. 26 4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’..................................................................................... 27 4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES ......................................................................................................... 28 4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS............................................................................................................ 32 4.2.1 4.2.2
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS.......................................................................................... 32 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................ 34
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS................................................................................... 36 4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL ................................................................................................... 39 5
4.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS ....................................................................................................... 45 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS.......................................................................................................... 47
6 7
LIST OF REFERENCES ...................................................................................................................... 56 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH ............................................................................ 57
8 9
APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION ................................................. 59 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA ................................................................. 60
10 11
APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS .......................................... 61 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................. 63
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APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR ........................................................... 65
i
Enterprise North Shore September 2008
13 14
APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES ...................................................................................... 66 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR............................................................. 67
15 16
APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR ............................................................... 69 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES) ............................ 71
17 18
APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS ......................................................... 73 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS ............................................................................... 77
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Enterprise North Shore September 2008 LIST OF FIGURES
FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006 ................................................................ 5 FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7 ....................................................................................... 10 FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY ................................................................ 13 FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY .......................................................... 13 FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT .............................................................................................................. 14 FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION ....................................................................................... 16 FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE) .......................... 16 FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA) ......... 24 FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS ................................................................................................... 25 FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-2: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2011 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-3: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2031 .......................................................................................... 27 FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031 ................................................................................ 27 FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$ .............................................................. 30 FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011* ........................ 31 FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS .............................................................................. 35 FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS ............................................................................................................ 36 FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE) .................................................................................... 38 FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE) ......................................................................... 41 FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES...................................................................................................... 42 LIST OF TABLES TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS .................................................................................................... 7 TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS .............................................................................................. 8 TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION ................................................................................................... 9 TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS .................................................... 11 TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE ....................................... 11 TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ % .............................................................................. 12 TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031) ............. 19 TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS ................................................................... 20 TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED SECTORS)................................................................................... 20 TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED SECTOR .......................................................................................... 21 TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED SECTORS ......... 22 TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE ............................................................................ 22 TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING ............................................................................................... 29 TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS .......................................................... 33 TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS ....................................................................... 35 TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS ................................................................................... 37 TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1) .................................................... 39 TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS .......................................................................................................................... 49 TABLE 5-2: TARGETED SECTORS – NORTH SHORE .................................................................................. 51 TABLE 5-3: TARGETED SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION ........................................................................... 52 TABLE 5-4: TARGETED SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND .................................................................................... 53 TABLE 5-5: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION) .................... 54 TABLE 5-6: TARGETED SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND) ................... 54 TABLE 5-7: TARGETED SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS ........................................................................... 55
iii
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 1: BACKGROUND 1 INTRODUCTION & ORIENTATION North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many issues and challenges for the city. The purpose of this report is to describe, in terms of population and economic growth out to 2031, one of a number of potential futures for North Shore City that is based on a ‘Future Scenario’. The future described in this report is based on outputs of North Shore City’s’ Economic Futures Model, assuming business-as-usual conditions ie. the current trends, industry interactions and dynamics and market forces remain stable. It is envisaged that these outputs will provide Enterprise North Shore and the North Shore City Council with a baseline future, from which strategic decisions can be made about the future profile of economic activity in the city and economic development initiatives.
1.1 OBJECTIVES & SCOPE Economic development and the measurement of impacts in the economy are difficult to gauge, due to the limited availability and time lags associated with information releases. Economic Development Agencies (EDA) face a number of issues around the monitoring and tracking of the economy and in isolating the impacts of their activities. In order to assist Enterprise North Shore in overcoming these challenges, the following objectives were formulated and addressed throughout this project: 1. 2. 3. 4. 5.
To develop and provide a single source of information and monitoring of trends and key indicators of the North Shore economy. To provide a link between the interventions in key sectors and the measurement of growth in key sectors. The ability to monitor ENS performance and report to stakeholders – NSCC, shareholders etc. To outline the likely growth path of the North Shore within the context of the Auckland region over the medium to long term (next 20 years). The ability to assess quickly the economic impacts associated with potential new business to the North Shore with the intention of: a. Targeting the types of intervention which may be most appropriate b. Supporting possible lobbying of funding from central, regional and local government, and c. Guiding the communication between applicant and ENS.
Points 1 through 4 are addressed in this report. As the development of the information and monitoring of the key trends is an ongoing process, the report outlines the result of the first stage with the emphasis on Point 4’s findings. Point 5 mentioned above has been addressed through a separate process. This report provides a discussion of the results of the modelling, a short interpretation of the results and detail around the city’s targeted business sectors. Additionally a list of indicators with the current ‘levels’ is also included. The aim of this report and the accompanying modelling was not to identify the latent development opportunities or emerging strengths of the city’s economy. The shift share framework used in the review of the 48 sectors provides an indication of the underlying sectoral trends, and ongoing monitoring and utilisation of this framework could assist in identifying development potential (albeit at a high level).
1
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
1.2 APPROACH FOLLOWED Market Economics Limited followed a customised approach to develop and define the ‘Future Scenario’. This section provides an overview of the methodology employed in creating North Shore City’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). It can be noted that, while the study is concerned specifically with the North Shore, the methodology described in Appendix 1.1 can, in principle, be applied to any other territory within New Zealand. The EFM model is based on a multi-regional input-output model, and as such it is constrained by the limitations of input-output economics. These are well documented in many elementary input-output texts, including: •
Richardson (1972),
• •
Blain and Miller (1985), and McDonald and Patterson (2004).
Readers are directed to these texts for further information. Importantly, one of the key assumptions incorporated within the input-output model is that inter-industry interdependencies (expressed as relatives) remain constant throughout the study period. The scenario results reported here are derived from the use of the city’s Economic Futures Model (EFM). The EFM is a multi-regional scenario model that traces the environment-economy implications of growth by economic sector and households, typically over a 20-year timeframe. Importantly, the EFM is premised on a ‘systems’ perspective; with a concerted effort in the model’s construction to account for the highly interconnected and complex nature of economic change. In these regards, it can be noted that the model is based on a multi-regional input-output framework that captures both the implications of growth occurring within the specific economy under study (ie the North Shore City economy), as well as the wider economic feedbacks between the study area and the rest of the New Zealand economy. Furthermore, the input-output mathematics utilised within the model calculate not only the direct effects of economic change for a given North Shore sector, but also the indirect (ie upstream flow-on) and induced (ie resulting from consumer spending) effects arising as a result of the change. When interpreting the results of this study it is, however, important to keep in mind that no model can predict the future – the best a model can do is to assess - and then only to a limited extent under restrictive assumptions and possible implications of plausible scenarios. The ‘Future Scenario’ investigated in this report is one of a number of plausible scenarios for North Shore City that might be investigated by using the EFM model. It is envisaged that the results presented here will provide a baseline upon which to compare economic tradeoffs and implications resulting from other ‘what-if’ scenarios.
1.3 INFORMATION SOURCES A range of information sources have been consulted during the development of the EFM model and this report. For the purposes of this report, the main sources accessed include: • •
The North Shore Economic Futures Model Reserve Bank of New Zealand
• •
New Zealand Institute of Economic Research (NZIER) Economic and sectoral outlooks and commentaries as published by different financial institutions
• •
Statistics New Zealand Business Frame Data Statistics New Zealand Census information
•
Market Economics In house databases. 2
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Various datasets have been used and developed throughout the project and are attached as appendices to the report. Where applicable, the information has been synthesised and included in the Appendices. In the body of the report, only extracts of the information are presented with suitable referencing to the applicable appendix contained in the report. Where applicable, the sources of information accessed during the drafting of this report are referenced, and a List of References is included at the end of this report.
1.4 REPORT STRUCTURE The report consists of three main parts and the individual sections within the parts. The three main parts are used to structure the report into the main elements, ie: •
Part 1: Background consists of two sections of which this introductory section is one: o Section 2: contains a description of the North Shore area and provides a strategic perspective. An indication of the demographic and economic features of the area is provided within the contexts of the national and regional contexts.
•
Part 2: ‘Future Scenario’ – Concise Overview provides a description of the future with a focus on the Targeted Business Sectors: o Section 3: presents and discusses the main findings of the EFM modelling with a focus on the ‘Future Scenario’ and the targeted business sectors. The section also provides an overview of the economy in general (under the ‘Future Scenario’), the projected occupational requirements and the highlights of the business survey.
•
Part 3: ‘Future Scenario’ – Sectoral Overview consists of two sections: o Section 4 contains a detailed description of the modelling outcomes and uses the 48 sector classification system. This scenario provides a detailed account of the projected economic performance of the North Shore economy, according to the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions for sectoral domestic and export final demand changes. The specific parameters focused on in this section include population and sectoral characteristics such as employment per sector and the value added per sector. The 48 sector classification system (which is consistent with the New Zealand System of National Accounts (NZSNZ) has been used throughout the modelling activities. The section concludes with a summary of the shift share o
analysis (based on the simple location quotient) for the 48 sectors. The report concludes with Section 5 which presents an inventory of indicators and measures. The indicators focus firstly on the overall condition and context of the North Shore economy and, secondly, on the targeted business sectors.
3
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2 THE NORTH SHORE – STRATEGIC PERSPECTIVE The North Shore functions within a broader environment by way of imports, exports, labour movements and other activities. The purpose of this section is to provide an overview of the recent trends experienced on the North Shore, and to view these trends in the context of the broader region and economy (ie. the Auckland region and New Zealand). The context presented, in essence, forms the basis for the assumptions used in the modelling activities associated with the ‘Future Scenario’. Similarly, the assumptions form the basis for the targeting of the various interventions. The focus of the section is to present a strategic perspective of the North Shore situation with an emphasis on: • •
The economic structure, sectoral performance highlights and interaction with the broader region. The employment situation vis-a-vis the use of employment (in terms of Full time equivalents and/or Employment
•
Counts) and the aggregate level of labour utilisation (unemployment). The demographic features such as the size of the population, the population structure and expected growth rates according to age cohorts.
The section concludes with highlights of the salient features of the priority sectors associated with Enterprise North Shore’s targeted business sectors. These sectors are: •
Information and Communications Technology sector
• •
Education sector Sport sector
• •
Health sector, and Financial and Professional Services sectors.
The context presented in the section is further augmented by a brief overview of selected resource-related indicators such as: • •
Land utilisation by the main economic sections Recent trends in the building consents issued by type.
Ultimately, this section does not strive to provide a detailed, in-depth discussion of the economic situation but to highlight the situation in terms of the main drivers of the economy.
2.1 DEMOGRAPHIC FEATURES Population and its associated characteristics have an important role in economic development planning, as the local populace acts as a source of labour (employees) as well as demand for goods and services (consumers). Additionally the age profile of the population has implications for both the demand (consumer component) and the supply (of labour). The movements over time of the demographic profile, and the competition between regions to 1) attract suitably qualified labourers and, 2) the highest number of consumers (spending power), has important implications for future economic activity.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The North Shore (like other New Zealand regions, and developed countries in general) it is projected that North Shore City will experience significant population ageing over the next 25 years. The population structure of the North Shore is presented in the following figure. In total, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the study period from 10.7% in 2006, to 19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of New Zealand as a whole, with the proportion of FIGURE 2-1: NORTH SHORE POPULATION STRUCTURE - 2006 persons aged 65 and older projected to increase 85+
to 21% by 2031. Like many other countries, New Zealand’s ageing population is primarily
80-84 75-79
attributed to significant declines in fertility rates and family size, post World War II ie. post
Females
70-74 65-69
Males
60-64
“Baby-boomers”.
55-59 50-54
The resultant ‘bulge’ in the age structure is systematically progressing through the age
45-49 40-44 35-39
profile. The net effect of the movement through the population is that the ‘younger”
30-34 25-29
1
generations tend to be smaller (in number terms) with a further effect of lowering the
20-24 15-19 10-14
birth rates. While advances in medical and health technologies are reducing mortality rates, the births are comparatively lower, which translates into a lower population growth rate.
5-9 0-4 -12,000 -10,000 -8,000 -6,000 -4,000 -2,000
-
2,000 4,000
6,000
8,000 10,000 12,000
In addition to the natural population growth rate, migration also has an influence on the population profile. Based on the Statistics New Zealand (SNZ) population projections, an outline of the future levels of in-and-out migration for the North Shore has been determined. The main observations regarding the net migration are (under the medium growth projections):
Re lationship between Age, Income & Public Investment At the 2001 census, the median annual income for a person aged 65 years and over was around 70% of the median income for adults aged 15-64 years. (Stats NZ) Older people are significant consumers of health and disability support services, and make up a substantial proportion of total domestic consumption. Public expenditure on health in 2001/02, for example, was estimated at:
a) A net loss of persons aged 20-29 years. b) A relatively stable position regarding c)
the 20-24 year cohort. A net gain (via migration of 0.3% to 0.4% of the base) for the 25-29 year age group.
$949 per capita for persons under the age of 15, $1,329 for persons aged 15-64 years, $3,643 for persons 65-74 years, $6,863 for persons 75-84 years, and $13,568 for persons 85 years and over (Ministry of Health, 2002).
The overall effect of the population growth and the net ageing has, as mentioned, important implications for consumption levels and economic growth. For example:
1
Referring the ‘Generation X’ and ‘Generation Y’ 5
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The young require intensive investment in education,
• •
“Mid-age” adults supply labour and savings, and The aged require health care and retirement income.
Therefore, when the relative size of each of these groups in a population changes, so does the relative intensity of these economic behaviours (Bloom et al., 2002). As shown by Figure 2.1, the ‘population bulge’ on the North Shore is currently situated around the 35 to 50 age group, which importantly tends to be the highest income-earning years of people’s lives. In 2007 approximately a quarter (±25%) of the North Shore population was aged 19 years or less (< 19 years old) and approximately 12% was aged older than 65 years. Persons in the 65+ age group tend to have relatively low incomes due to declining work participation, and this is likely to have important consequences in terms of their ability to purchase goods and services. International research2 has shown that in this age profile, approximately 50% of the expenditure profile is accounted for by changes in household demographics. The consumer demand element is further strongly influenced by factors such as: •
Education levels and occupation.
• •
House ownership characteristics. Household size.
The age categories with the strongest consumer power (purchasing powers and the propensity to spend) are generally between the ages of 45 and 55, with the peak around the 49-50-year age. The age profiles of the North Shore City are evaluated in terms of the preceding to illustrate the relative movement associated with the age categories. The shifts in the demographic profile have been included in the ‘Future Scenario’ projections and variables and parameters applied are outlined in the subsequent section. The North Shore’s population has grown by more than 20,000 persons between 2001 and 2006. Statistics New Zealand estimates that the population as at June 30 2007 was 220,300 (approximately 16% of the regional total). North Shore City is located in the Auckland region, which captured almost 50.2% of the New Zealand growth from 2001 to 2006. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. The projected growth is faster than the projected New Zealand growth, but is slower than the Auckland regional growth which is expected to grow at between 1.4% and 1.5% between 2006 and 2016. Both the Auckland region and the North Shore’ population are expected to grow at almost double the rate of the national population. On average, North Shore City’s population is older than the Auckland regional population. The 2006 Census counted the median age to be 35.9 for North Shore City and 33.9 years for the region as a whole – meaning the rest of the region is lower still. An older population has lower fertility rates than a younger one, meaning the demographics of the city point to a lower growth future than the rest of the region. The median age in North Shore City is the same as the nation as a whole. Based on the projected growth rates, the North Shore population is expected to be in the region of 270,000 people by 2026. The North Shore is home to approximately 78,000 households, or 16.9% of the Auckland regional households. Given that the city is home to 16% of the population, the average household size in the city is lower than the regional average - again this point to an older population. A summary of the household growth for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand is presented in Table 2-1. 2
Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D. 6
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 2-1: HOUSEHOLD PROJECTIONS 2001
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
North Shore City
70,800
77,300
83,200
90,100
97,200
104,600
Auckland Region
419,400
466,700
511,200
559,900
609,300
659,400
1,439,800
1,558,300
1,654,000
1,753,100
1,847,800
1,938,300
New Zealand
Between 2006 and 2011, an additional 5,900 households will reside in the North Shore. By 2026, the North Shore will host an additional 27,300 households (between 2006 and 2026). This is the equivalent of adding the city of Palmerston North to the North Shore in 20 years. In the regional context (Auckland region), the North Shore will capture 13.3% of the new households in the 2006-2011 growth period and 14.4% of the new households in the 2011 to 2026 period. A defining characteristic of North Shore 3
City’s household formation is decreasing household size, ie households are expected to become smaller . The reduced size of the households is influenced by the shifts in population profile (age structure). And, while the population total is expected to grow, the change in the population structure has wide-ranging implications for education, social service provision and employment provision within the city. The following table indicates shifts in the population structure and highlights the declining proportion of the population within the Potentially Economic Active (PEA) segment – those in the prime working age ranges of 19 – 65 years. The potentially economically active population only provides an indication of the likely labour force and the relative size of this segment to the overall population. However, the proportional shift in the PEA highlighted in the preceding text does not equate to DEMOGRAPHIC SHIFT an absolute decline in the 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 segment which is actually <19 26.3% 25.3% 24.5% 23.7% 22.9% expected to increase (in number >65 11.9% 13.7% 15.2% 17.0% 19.0% terms) from approximately % 38.1% 39.0% 39.7% 40.8% 41.9% 143,200 (in 2011) to 167,700 by 2026 - an increase of some 24,500 – roughly the equivalent of one working-age person per additional household over the same time period. Ageing of the population influences (directly) the economy through the availability of labour to participate in the economy, and secondly (indirectly) through the consumption patterns and effects. In total, the proportion of persons aged 65 and older on the North Shore is projected to steadily increase over the study period from 10.7% in 2006 to 19.0% in 2031. This ageing is marginally higher than the population ageing of New Zealand as a whole, with the proportion of persons aged 65 and older projected to increase to 21% by 2031. By including the proportion of the population which is younger than 19, the share of the population that falls within the potential economically active cohort is expected to decline from 61.9% in 2006 to 58.1% in 2026. North Shore City is the fourth largest city in New Zealand in terms of population, and constitutes one of seven local authority areas within the Auckland region. Being part of New Zealand’s largest population and business centre creates many opportunities, issues and challenges for the city.
3
The households becoming smaller relates to the number of individuals in the households and not the size of the
residence per se. 7
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.2 ECONOMIC & EMPLOYMENT FEATURES The economic features of the North Shore are discussed by providing an indication of the main economic sectors in the area, and by placing these sectors in context in terms of their relative contribution towards the regional (Auckland) and national (New Zealand) economies. Similarly, employment by sector is also reviewed. In 2007, 13% of all the employment opportunities in the Auckland region were located on the North Shore and almost 5% of the New Zealand employment opportunities were located within the city. This was a proportional increase in the employment opportunities located on the North Shore. More specifically, the increase between 2001 and 2007 was from 12.9% (from a regional perspective) and from 4.1% (from a national perspective). With reference to the share of business units located on the North Shore, a similar distribution is evident: •
Regional share2007
16.9%
(2001 = 16.3%).
•
National share2007
5.3%
(2001 = 4.9%).
Historic trends in employment levels (actual employment) are shown in Table 2-2. Note that the table outlines the actual employment counts and should not be confused with the potentially active population discussed earlier. TABLE 2-2: TOTAL EMPLOYMENT COUNTS 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
North Shore City
66,700
70,900
74,100
78,500
81,700
83,500
86,100
Auckland Region
518,200
532,000
553,600
578,900
598,700
612,200
627,100
1,612,200
1,661,600
1,716,500
1,785,500
1,844,700
1,880,800
1,923,300
New Zealand North Shore % of region North Shore % of NZ
12.9%
13.3%
13.4%
13.6%
13.6%
13.6%
13.7%
4.1%
4.3%
4.3%
4.4%
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
From 2001 to 2007 the number of employees on the North Shore has increased from 66,700 to 86,100 – a net gain of 19,400 or approximately 2,800 jobs per year. In the regional context, the growth accounted for 17.8% of the new jobs created in the Auckland region. During the same period, the city captured only 13.7% of the household growth. This means that in recent times the North Shore economy has created jobs at a significantly higher rate than household and population growth (30% faster). While the annual rate of employment creation varied, the annual rate at which employment grew (taking the base into account) on the North Shore was larger than either the Auckland or New Zealand rates. This suggests that the North Shore is becoming a greater contributor to both these economies, and is moving quickly to a more employment self-sufficient state. The comparatively faster rate of growth highlights the growing importance of the North Shore as a business centre in the Auckland (and therefore national) context.
North Shore % of Auckland Region Employment
2001
2006
2007
12.9%
13.6%
13.7%
The North Shore economy provides more than 10% of the regional employment opportunities, and is increasingly becoming an employment and business destination. The share of Auckland regional employment provided on the North Shore increased from 12.9% in 2001 to 13.9% in 2007. Further, the number of businesses in the North Shore expressed as a percentage of the total of businesses in the region has also increased, but not as fast as employment (from 16.3% in 2001 to 16.9% in 2007). The mismatch between these growth rates implies that the businesses in the North Shore’s employment requirements have grown 8
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
comparatively faster than the employment in the broader Auckland region. This indicates that the North Shore’s businesses are growing comparatively faster than the region as a whole. In a labour-constrained market place (as experienced over the past period) the growth in employment could be interpreted as meaning that the North Shore was a more favourable location to work – compared to the competing employment centres of others, such as the Auckland Central Business District. This implies that businesses locating on the North Shore are growing in size (on average) and that the North Shore is becoming a more attractive place to locate a larger business.
2.3 ECONOMIC OUTPUT Apart from the employment opportunities, the value of the business activity on the North Shore plays a key role in the Auckland regional and New Zealand economies, and in generating wealth for North Shore households. The North Shore accounts for approximately 13.5% of the economic activity in the Auckland region (in terms of both value added and output). It is important to focus on Gross Geographic Product (GGP)4 or value added as the key measure of economic contribution, as this is the ‘truer’ measure of value added within the economy. Value added – as an indicator - removes the value of inputs created outside of the economy which therefore do not create local value in their production. From a national (ie New Zealand) perspective, the North Shore economy captures approximately 5% of economic output and value-added. This contribution is generated with a proportionally lower employment base (c.f. 4.4% of national employment being located on the North Shore). Recent trends in the economic contribution of the North Shore to the region and New Zealand is reflected in TABLE 2-3.
TABLE 2-3: ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION 2004
2006
2007
North Shore as % of Region Output
13.5%
Value Added
13.8%
13.4%
13.4%
13.7%
13.6%
North Shore as % of New Zealand Output
4.9%
4.9%
4.8%
Value Added
4.8%
4.7%
4.7%
It is estimated that economic activity in the North Shore economy generated $7,430 m in GDP in 2006 ($7,999m once final demand contribution is added). In addition to this contribution, the comparative growth rates as experienced over the short term are reflected in Figure 2-2. The North Shores’s performance is comparatively better than the national trends, but only outperforms the regional economy in employment opportunities created. It is stressed that the accompanying figure reflects the trends in the ‘overall economy’ and does not: •
Reflect the longer term trends or outlooks.
•
The relative performance of the ‘key sectors’ within the North Shore economy.
The key targeted sectors are discussed in the following section with the emphasis on providing the context of these sectors within the North Shore economy.
4
GGP is technically similar to gross domestic product (GDP) with the area defined being the only difference. GDP
refers to the domestic ie. the country as a whole, while GGP relates to a specific area/region such as the North Shore. 9
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-2: ANNUAL GROWTH RATE 2006-7
3.5% 3.0% 2.5% 2.0% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0%
Output
Value added
Employment (ECs)
NZ
2.10%
1.62%
2.26%
ARC
2.41%
2.41%
2.42%
NS
2.12%
2.12%
2.94%
2.4 PRIORITY SECTORS Growth, employment and activity trends in key sectors within the North Shore economy and the main implications of these trends have been investigated. The targeted business sectors have been selected by Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council’s economic development division on the basis that North Shore City has a comparative advantage in these sectors and that they have the capability to: •
Transform the entire economy, and
•
Drive growth and wealth creation for all North Shore households.
These sectors comprise: •
• • • •
High Technology – a broad range of enterprises utilising advanced information and communication technologies in their operational process. This sector includes niche manufacturing, the marine industry and machinery and equipment manufacturing. Education – primarily tertiary sector but includes other post-school education providers Sports – based around large organisations such as Harbour Sport and the Millennium Centre with its high performance focus Health – hospitals, medical specialists and the information technology associated with the health sector Financial, Business & Professional Services – service providers to the financial and business sectors.
These sectors capture an increasing share of the North Shore (and regional and national) employment opportunities, with approximately 28% of the North Shore employment in these sectors. Table 2-4 outlines the recent trends in the employee counts for the targeted business sectors for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand. In order to estimate the value of gross output, value-added and employment generated by the targeted business sectors, the 6-Digit ANZSIC classifications were used. As each 6D ANZSIC falls within one of the 48 modelled sectors, it is possible to apportion the 6D ANZSIC to targeted business sectors based on the 48 sectors. The apportionment is based on employment within the main 48 sectors of the targeted business groupings ie. the share of the employment within each of the 6D ANZSIC categories that are associated with the targeted business sectors, is included into a table
10
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
that references the 48 sectors. A full list of the 6D ANZSIC codes associated with the targeted business sectors is presented in Appendix 2.1 TABLE 2-4: EMPLOYMENT COUNTS– TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2001
2002
2,561
2,508
4,748
5,568
860 4,300
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2,678
2,818
2,897
3,024
2,801
5,870
6,270
6,350
6,380
6,895
975
1,140
1,145
1,190
1,275
1,270
4,670
4,515
5,050
5,605
6,265
6,260
North Shore High Technology Education Sports Health Financial & Professional Services Not-targeted All Industries
7,559
8,215
9,006
9,740
10,106
10,993
12,181
46,624
48,940
50,898
53,514
55,507
55,563
56,714
66,652
70,876
74,107
78,537
81,655
83,500
86,121
Region
High Technology Education Sports Health Financial & Professional Services Not-targeted All Industries
21,388
21,388
21,814
22,193
22,073
22,407
22,882
37,844
37,844
45,314
46,705
47,597
47,033
50,293
4,912
4,912
5,617
5,585
5,849
6,277
6,424
27,618
27,618
30,285
31,107
32,487
34,574
35,156
66,347
66,347
72,837
78,992
85,042
90,297
93,556
360,122
360,122
377,736
394,288
405,688
411,659
418,761
518,231
518,231
553,603
578,870
598,736
612,247
627,072
New Zealand 51,340 53,020 52,890 53,165 52,930 52,990 High Technology 132,560 137,980 145,940 149,480 150,580 147,940 Education 14,740 16,170 16,840 17,540 18,030 18,990 Sports 103,320 108,980 110,440 113,710 115,980 119,300 Health 150,500 152,495 160,335 171,080 183,420 192,825 Financial & Professional Services 1,159,777 1,192,982 1,230,093 1,280,518 1,323,720 1,348,776 Non-targeted Source: Market Economics Limited calculations based on Statistics New Zealand
53,410 155,630 19,900 120,440 202,305 1,371,621
It is evident from the preceding table that the city’s targeted business sectors play an important role in the North Shore context vis-à-vis employment. These sectors also account for approximately 26% of the North Shore economic output and 25% of the economic value-added. The following table provides an indication of the size of these sectors in terms of the economic output. TABLE 2-5: OUTPUT ($’000) – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS NORTH SHORE TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS
2006
High Technology
851,571
872,862
67,187
68,703
70,253
116,642
119,753
122,948
1,807,717
1,854,374
1,902,265
Sports & Performance Health Total (Targeted)
2008*
830,880
Education Financial & Professional
2007*
378,930
386,332
393,880
3,201,355
3,280,734
3,362,208
* Estimated With reference to the High Technology sector, the North Shore sector outperformed both the Auckland and New Zealand sectors in the short term. By comparing the contribution (in terms of output) of the different business sectors toward the aggregate economies, it is clear that the Financial and Professional services dominate over the other sectors. In North Shore City, this sector captures close to 60% of the total targeted business sectors’ output, which is 11
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
higher than the New Zealand (50%) situation and marginally lower than the regional level (60%). Table 2-6 illustrates the movements in the individual targeted business sectors contribution. TABLE 2-6: NORTH SHORE –TARGETED SECTORS’ %
SECTOR
2006
2007*
2008*
High Technology
25.95%
25.96%
25.96%
Education
2.10%
2.09%
2.09%
Sports & Performance
3.64%
3.65%
3.66%
Financial & Professional
56.47%
56.52%
56.58%
Health
11.84% 100.0%
11.78% 100.0%
11.71% 100.0%
Total (Targeted)
The Financial and Professional sectors’ relative dominance of the targeted business sectors highlights the role of the North Shore in the ‘service economy’ both in terms of provision of commercial services and household services (given the high share of activity in the retail and household services sectors). It also underlines the growth potential of the other targeted business sectors already identified as important to North Shore City’s future. The second largest targeted business sector is the High Technology sector, which captured 25.95% of the targeted business sectors’ output in 2007. The value output of high technology has grown comparatively faster than the other targeted business sectors, and this sector’s importance in the North Shore context (targeted business sectors) is expected to increase in the immediate future. All the targeted business sectors are expected to grow, with the sport and performance component expected to grow the fastest at 2.67% in the 2006-2011 period, followed by the high technology- and financial and professional services sectors (forecast to grow at 2.51% and 2.58% respectively). Over the long term (2006-2031), the targeted business sectors are projected to grow at 2.4% per annum – which is faster than the projected 2.17% national growth rates for the targeted business sectors. However this is marginally slower than the 2.5% forecast for the Auckland region’s growth. With reference to value-added per employee, the targeted business sectors tend to have a higher value added per employee than the other sectors of the economy. The following two figures indicate firstly the value added per employment in the high technology sector of the North Shore, Auckland region and the overall New Zealand economy. The second figure is a comparison of the value added (total industry) for the North Shore, the Auckland region and New Zealand. The targeted business sectors on the North Shore have a higher value added per FTE than the aggregate economy and, furthermore, the value added per employee (total economy) on the North Shore is higher than the value added per employee in both the New Zealand and the Auckland region contexts. With reference to the value added per employee, the Auckland region and the North Shore have similar characteristics for the overall economy with both regions (although growing) expanding comparatively slower than the national levels. A driver of the value-added per FTE in the high technology sector (Figure 2.3 and Figure 2.4) is a result of North Shore having a relative concentration in some of the sub-sectors constituting the high technology sector as defined earlier, including: •
Telecommunication Services
• •
Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing Electrical Equipment Manufacturing
• •
Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing Ship- and boat building. 12
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-3: VALUE ADDED (PER FTE) – HIGH TECHNOLOGY 115,000 110,000 105,000 100,000 95,000 90,000 85,000 North Shore
Auckland
NZ
80,000 75,000 2006
2007
2008
FIGURE 2-4: VALUE ADDED PER EMPLOYEE – TOTAL ECONOMY
120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 North Shore
Auckland
NZ
20,000 2006
2007
13
2008
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.5 EXTERNAL ENVIRONMENT The North Shore economy functions in a wider economic environment, and it is necessary to consider this external environment and see its context within the environment in which North Shore businesses trade. The following section is based on economic and sectoral commentaries of different financial institutions. The intention of the following is to sketch the outlook and the broader environment. It can be said that the effects of a slowing global economy and tighter lending conditions are expected to influence the North Shore economy directly and indirectly through lower demand for goods and services produced, and higher costs for inputs to the production process. The higher costs of capital are likely to influence companies’ ability to expand and take advantage of opportunities. New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) is predicting a slow weakening of the New Zealand dollar – especially against the Australian dollar buoyed by continued strong mineral commodity returns that do not look like reducing in the short or medium term. Inflation pressures that remain within the New Zealand economy are likely to provide upward pressure on the dollar versus the US dollar. However, the New Zealand Reserve Bank in has moved earlier than most expected to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR), which should move the dollar downwards. New Zealand’s current account deficit is expected to improve over the medium term, potentially reducing the risk premium associated with New Zealand dollar denominated investments and helping to maintain its strength. While the dollar is not expected to achieve the highs of recent months, it is likely to remain volatile in the short term. NZIER is predicting an exchange rate of more than 70 cents (US) for the medium term. Apart from the constraints on the economy discussed above, opportunities will emerge for some targeted business sub-sectors. For example, the Advertising Services (L785100) might experience an increase in work as firms aim to increase market exposure and attempt to build on existing branding images in times of constrained demand. These activities have strong linkage with the Commercial Art and Display Services (L785200) sector, which is also a targeted sub-sector. Another example of a sub-sector which could stand to benefit from the credit crunch and the slowing economy is the Business Management Services (785500) sub-sector. The increased financial pressures faced by business entities are expected to trigger a drive to lower production and input costs whilst increasing productivity. The expected slowdown in the New Zealand economy is currently manifesting through reduced levels of business confidence and other indicators, such as lower consumer spending (retail sales) and an increase in unemployment although from historically low figures (Refer to Figure 2-5). Other factors that will have an impact on the North Shore economy are inflation and interest rates reducing the purchasing power of domestic households and businesses.
FIGURE 2-5: UNEMPLOYMENT
According to the Westpac Economic Overview (Q2), inflation has become a dominant force around the globe and is also influencing New Zealand. According to the Westpac modelling, inflation is expected to reach 5.5% later in 2008, primarily as a result of high and rising food and energy prices. The rising cost of living is taking a toll on consumers and businesses (as reflected by business confidence and retail spending figures) and investment activity has all but dried up. 14
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Business confidence about where the economy will be in 12 months’ time has, after improving for three months in a row, gone backwards over the past month5. In the BNZ survey a net 43.9% of respondents said they expect the economy to get worse. This is a deterioration from a net 29.8% pessimistic in late May, but is still below the recent peak for pessimism in March of a net 62.3%. The results reflect the further increasing of petrol prices in recent times, along with weaker sales activity reported by many respondents. The slowing of the economy and the short term outlook for the global economy has resulted in the Offical Cash Rate (OCR) being lowered (24 July 2008). The rationale for the lowering of the OCR from 8.25 percent to 8.0 percent was based on the risk that the domestic economy will slow even further. The Reserve Bank indicated that “Recent oil and food price increases mean that annual CPI inflation should peak around 5 percent in the September quarter of this year. The weaker economy is expected to reduce pressure on resources, making it more difficult for firms to pass on costs and for higher wage claims to be agreed.” Further reductions are unlikely to be made rapidly as significant inflationary pressures exist in the economy such as: high oil and commodity prices, a falling dollar raising import costs, stimulatory tax reduction packages around the election aimed at low and middle income families who have a greater propensity to increase spending in response. A key area where impacts of OCR changes can be seen is in the construction sector. Residential construction activity has weakened from a high base over recent months. High interest rates, credit tightening and low net migration have reduced housing demand. Sales of existing houses have halved over the past 12 months. Construction activity tends to follow the trends of sales, with a lag of around six months. Residential building construction is expected to decline through 2008 and into 2009, with a decline of around 18% over the two-year period. While the non-residential construction activity is expected to fare better, credit tightening, low business confidence and the current softening in domestic demand will see some projects delayed in the short term. Westpac expects economic output growth to slow to 0.6% in the year ended December 2008, with the worst of the recession being experienced in the current (June 2008) quarter. Economic activity is expected to improve from the end of 2008, with growth rebounding to 2.8% in the 2009 calendar year. NZIER6 expects GDP growth to slow to 1.9% for the March 2009 year (down from 2.9% for the March 2008 year). It expects GDP growth to bounce back relatively quickly, to average 2.9% growth annually between 2010 and 2012. The following figure (see Figure 2-6) reflects the recent trends in the residential construction sector in terms of the value and number of residential dwellings authorised (nationally). Additionally, the recent trend on the North Shore of non-residential buildings consents is also reflected. A review of the non-residential buildings approved in North Shore City (2000-2006) revealed the total value of approvals was in excess of $760 million (of which 29% ($225 million) was related to the Property and Business Services sector). The impacts of the increase in interest rates and the associated global slowdown are not evident in Figure 2-7; primarily as a result of the timeframes not allowing a direct comparison. The expected slowdown in investment is important for the North Shore (and broader economically) as the decreasing economic growth leads to decreasing investment which, in turn, leads to decreasing productivity growth and lower competitiveness levels compared to the competitors.
5
Bank of New Zealand 7th July 2008
6
Quartely Predictions, June 2008, NZIER 15
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 2-6 : SLOWDOWN IN CONSTRUCTION (# & $ OF DWELLING UNITS AUTHORISED – NEW ZEALAND
FIGURE 2-7: VALUE ($) OF NON-RESIDENTIAL BUILDING CONSENTS (NORTH SHORE) 300,000 250,000 200,000 150,000 100,000 50,000 2000
2001
2002
Property & Business Services
2003
Education
2004
2005
Wholesale Trade
2006
TOTAL
Refer Appendix 2.3: Value of Non Residential Consents for the data on which this figure is based
16
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
2.6 CONCLUDING REMARKS The preceding section outlined the current situation on the North Shore from a wide perspective. While general conclusions could be drawn from the preceding, the most obvious is that the North Shore’s targeted business sectors have played a significant role in the North Shore context. This implies that investing in these sectors and encouraging their growth will generate more wealth within the North Shore economy than focusing on the economy in general. In addition, the flow-on effects through inter-industry linkages across the rest of the economy, help drive the overall economy to a greater extent than other sectors. The importance and dominance of financial and professional services in the North Shore economy have the potential to expose the economy to shocks and wider external movements – such as the current financial slowdown ie the Credit Crunch. The projections applied in the modelling of the North Shore economy and the inter-relationships with Auckland region and New Zealand is informed by historic trends, and the influence of the slowdown in the market is expected to filter through and affect the North Shore. While the economic modelling carried out with the Economic Futures Model incorporates variables to deal with changing demand conditions, the purpose of the modelling is not to predict/forecast the effects on the economy as a result of shocks, such as the credit crunch, or oil price movements. The following section discusses the ‘Future Scenario’ future in greater detail and includes an analysis of the targeted business sectors and the overall context of the North Shore economy.
17
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: CONCISE OVERVIEW 3 THE ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ The second part of this report outlines the description of the ‘Future Scenario’ of the North Shore economy. This is generated using a multi-regional input-output model of the economy developed specifically for Enterprise North Shore and called the Economic Futures Model (EFM). The key feature of North Shore’s EFM is that it establishes not only direct economic growth in key economic industries, but also the indirect growth associated with flow-on effects. Growth in the Marine industry, for example, will most likely result in growth in other industries, particularly through supply chain linkages. Furthermore, if additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This, in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly within services supporting households. The model furthermore captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore City and New Zealand economies. In this way, the implications of growth in key New Zealand industries on the North Shore economy are also captured. The EFM works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021, 2026 and 2031, and determining economic activity required to produce these demands – including all of the associated flow on implications. Growth in household consumption is based on population projections, while projections of export demand are derived using econometric analysis. The outcomes initially derived from these projections are validated and adjusted as appropriate, based on primary research (the survey process is covered in a subsequent section). The repercussionary or flow on implications are then calculated using input-output 7
mathematics , with growth rates by the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2031 being the major output. These growth rates, with productivity allowances, are then used to estimate the future economic implications associated with growth. To date, the model has been set up to analyse only the ‘Future Scenario’ with a 20-year outlook. The ‘Future ’assumes that: a)
The current economic interdependencies between industries within North Shore City will continue to prevail, and
b) Only crude judgements about technological change may be made. It is important to restate the base position of North Shore City at this point, as the ‘Future Scenario’ is basically derived from recent trends (outlined in the preceding sections) in growth and change within the city, combined with anticipated growth in demands over the next 25 years. North Shore City is one of the seven territorial authorities that make up the Auckland region. It is the third largest TA in terms of population and recent growth (2001 – 2006) and is almost entirely urbanise, with only small pockets of semi-rural land on its northern borders with Rodney District. The city is structured around a number of sub-regional and suburban centres and employment areas (Takapuna, Albany, North Harbour Industrial Estate, and Wairau Valley). The city has a long coastline with a large number of beaches on its eastern flank. Town centres have developed behind most of the main beaches, as historically settlement patterns have favoured these locations.
7
Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact eg for events such as the America’s Cup and the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
18
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Population: The total population of North Shore City at June 2007 was 220,300, or 5.2% of the total New Zealand population (Statistics New Zealand, 2008). The city makes up 15.8% of the regional population, however it is not growing as fast as the region overall (2.2% annual average between 2001 and 2006 compared with 2.4% for the region). Recent growth is, however, almost 50% faster than the national average (2.25% versus 1.5%). As discussed above, demographic characteristics such as an older average age and higher incomes are associated with lower growth rates. This is offset to a certain extent by strong economic performance attracting population and a significant share of migration. The ‘Future Scenario’ is discussed by way of a summary of the terms of the economic activity; secondly a summary of the targeted business sectors’ relative performance under the ‘Future Scenario’; and finally an extraction of the key findings from the survey results.
3.1 RESULTS OF ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’- ECONOMY IN GENERAL Current productive GDP generated within North Shore City is approximately $12.7bn (2006). This is expected to grow by $8.8bn to some $21.7bn by 2031 in real terms (68% growth in total). The contribution to the North Shore economy by the largest 20 sectors is ranked in Table 3-1. A full list of sectors and contributions is appended to this report. TABLE 3-1: CONTRIBUTION TO NORTH SHORE CITY’S GDP (TOP 20 INDUSTRIES, 2006 – 2031) 2006 (Output $’m) Sector
# 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Wholesale trade Business svcs Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Communication svcs Real estate Health & community svcs Construction Central government Education Insurance Finance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Personal & other community svcs Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Accommodation, restaurants & bars
2031 (Output $’m) Sector
$’m 894 883 843 559 557 538 387 340 272 262 204 193 182 134 115 113 109 96 29 93
Business svcs Wholesale trade Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Real estate Communication svcs Construction Health & community svcs Education Central government Machinery & equipment manuf Finance Insurance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Cultural & recreational svcs Personal & other community svcs Accommodation, restaurants & bars Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment
$’m 1,756 1,423 1,252 887 856 836 647 586 427 406 348 309 307 248 221 213 198 192 167 148
The strongest growth in percentage terms occurs in the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sector from $113m to over $348m value added by 2031 (208%). In terms of growth in value-added, the Business Services sector adds some $873m in contribution to GGP over the next 25 or so years. Strong contributions are made by the Wholesale sector ($529m) and Retail Trades ($324m). However, Business Services takes top spot off Wholesaling as the largest contributor to GDP in the city (at almost $1.8bn), as the structure of the economy moves towards a more business services orientated economy. The high contribution by Wholesale and Retail Trades, Health and Community Services and the Education sector emphasises North Shore’s continuing consumption-led economy. 19
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
3.2 TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR FUTURE PERFORMANCE The projected targeted business sector performances are highlighted by outlining the value-added, employment and output forecasts for the individual sectors.
3.2.1 VALUE ADDED The targeted business sectors are expected to grow strongly over the next 20 years or so. Table 3-2 highlights the growth in contribution to GDP made by the sectors to 2031. TABLE 3-2: VALUE ADDED – TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
High Technology
NZ$'000
461,177
521,256
587,882
664,254
750,078
852,401
Education
54,668
61,136
68,022
74,908
82,002
89,096
Sports & Performance
61,592
70,580
81,054
92,049
104,529
118,654
1,071,232
1,214,177
1,374,036
1,549,351
1,743,376
1,958,799
Financial & Professional Health
289,942
319,425
349,813
380,140
409,809
437,318
Total (Targeted)
1,938,611
2,186,574
2,460,806
2,760,701
3,089,794
3,456,269
North Shore (Total industry)
7,429,000
8,313,000
9,253,000
10,230,000
11,246,000
12,308,000
26.10%
26.30%
26.59%
26.99%
27.47%
28.08%
Targeted % of North Shore
Growth in these sectors sees their contribution to the total economy grow from 26% to 28% by 2031. The strongest growth is expected to occur in the High Technology sector, with an annual average growth rate of 2.7%. The Financial and Business Services sector is projected to grow at 2.44% - these growth rates are in line with the limited survey responses from businesses in these sectors. In total the targeted business sectors are expected to be generating GDP of $3.4bn in 2031, up from $1.9bn in 2008.
3.2.2 EMPLOYMENT FORECASTS Total employment in the targeted business sectors is expected to grow from 23,600 in 2006 to around 36,640 by 2031. The largest sector is Financial and Business Services sector, where growth of more than 7,600 employment opportunities is expected by 2031. TABLE 3-3: EMPLOYMENT (TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted) North Shore (Total) Targeted % of North Shore
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
4,245
4,713
5,217
5,790
6,451
7,230
1,083
1,171
1,261
1,346
1,427
1,501
989
1,096
1,211
1,333
1,466
1,612
12,357
13,663
15,071
16,559
18,180
19,962
4,928
5,257
5,584
5,874
6,127
6,333
23,602
25,899
28,345
30,902
33,651
36,638
83,500
95,424
103,413
111,299
119,209
127,150
28.27%
27.14%
27.41%
27.77%
28.23%
28.81%
In total the TBPA sectors under the ‘Future Scenario’ grow from 28.3% of the total North Shore City employment in 2006 to 28.8% by 2031. This implies faster growth here than elsewhere in the economy. The degree to which the 20
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
targeted business sectors dominate the employment profile of the North Shore is highlighted by the preceding table, with almost a third of the labour force being employed in the targeted business sectors. As expected, the relative degree of concentration of the targeted business sectors in terms of employment on the North Shore is expected to remain stable out to 2031 under the ‘Future Scenario’.
3.2.3 GROSS OUTPUT In terms of total economic activity, the targeted business sectors are expected to grow from $3.2bn in Gross Output terms to more than $5.7bn by 2031 (see Table 3-4). As a share of total North Shore activity, the sectors grow from 24.87% to 26.6% by 2031. The share of employment in the targeted business sectors (% of the total North Shore employment base) is expected to remain relatively constant – around a quarter of the employment.
TABLE 3-4: OUTPUT PER TARGETED BUSINESS SECTOR NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted) North Shore (Total industry) Targeted % of North Shore
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
830,880
940,546
1,062,930
1,199,937
1,360,372
1,546,551 109,545
67,187
75,116
83,463
92,017
100,781
116,642
133,053
152,434
173,381
196,936
223,542
1,807,717
2,053,666
2,324,309
2,619,925
2,949,092
3,314,878
378,930
417,425
457,546
496,948
534,910
570,774
3,201,355
3,619,806
4,080,682
4,582,208
5,142,090
5,765,290
12,872,000
14,476,000
16,150,000
17,900,000
19,744,000
21,678,000
24.87%
25.01%
25.27%
25.60%
26.04%
26.60%
The largest growth in output is from the Financial and Professional Services sector, which is expected to continue to dominate the total output of the North Shore (15% of the total and 57% of the targeted business sector total). Between the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors, more than 80% of the targeted business employment is captured (Table 3.3).
3.2.4 OUTPUT & VALUE ADDED PER FTE The projected value added and output per FTE has been determined based on the information outlined in the preceding sections. The value added per FTE is projected to grow for both the targeted business sectors and the overall North Shore economy. The targeted business value added is projected to increase by $9,808/FTE (a percentage movement of 11.6%) between 2006 and 2031. The growth in productivity is driven by two factors. Firstly, the EFM assumes that in general there is an increase in labour productivity over time. Projections (based on recent trends) indicate an average annual shift of 0.65% per FTE. Secondly the ‘Future Scenario’ sees a higher concentration of employment in high value added sectors, raising the overall average. The anticipated movements and trends in the individual targeted business sectors of the North Shore are summarised in Table 3-5.
21
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 3-5: SUMMARY OF VALUE ADDED PER FTE TRENDS – NORTH SHORE TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS 2008
2031
High Technology
109,826
117,894
Education
51,411
Sports & Performance Financial & Professional
Movement
% Change
AAGR*
8,068
7.3%
0.31%
59,347
7,936
15.4%
0.63%
63,262
73,618
10,356
16.4%
0.66%
91,135
98,126
6,991
7.7%
0.32%
Health
57,779
11,278
19.5%
0.78%
Total (Targeted)
84,528 94,336 9,808 *AAGR = Average Annual Growth Rate
11.6%
0.48%
69,057
The relative growth and movements in the Financial and Professional Services and the High Technology sectors revealed the lowest overall growth in percentage terms but from a much higher base (almost 100% higher in some instances). Therefore the productivity in these sectors in 2031 is still higher than that of the other targeted business sectors. The Health sector is projected to have the largest change (an increase of $11,300 per FTE). The different sectors’ internal characteristics influence the degree to which the value added per FTE can be developed and how the improvements in productivity translate into additional GDP for North Shore overall.
3.2.5 SKILLS & OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE The projected changes and movements in the output and value-added of the North Shore economy is directly linked to and informed by the employment structure ie the occupational profile of the area. An additional set of outputs from the EFM model (under the ‘Future Scenario’) is a disaggregation of employment into occupations. The relationship between occupation structure and FTEs is not 1:1, as an FTE may be made up of two part-time workers. However the occupation structure provides a robust way of assessing future skills requirements to achieve the economic structures projected under the ‘Future Scenario’. Table 3-6 reflects the projected occupational structure for the North Shore under this scenario. This table highlights the occupations which are associated with the targeted business sectors. TABLE 3-6: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE Occupation Projections
OCCUPATIONS 2006
2011
2016
2021
Growth 2026
Rank
Chief Executives, GM's and Legislators
5,217
5,722
6,231
6,746
7,267
7,808
Specialist Managers
10,962
12,024
13,092
14,150
15,207
16,282
2,130
5,320
20
1
Arts and Media Professionals
1,182
1,304
1,435
1,569
1,712
1,865
253
683
6
27
Bus., Human Res. & Marketing Prof.
7,089
7,777
8,478
9,188
9,931
10,706
1,389
3,617
16
2
Design, Engineering, Science & Trans Prof.
3,498
3,877
4,268
4,675
5,110
5,581
770
2,083
3
5
Education Professionals
5,250
5,617
5,984
6,317
6,615
6,869
734
1,619
41
10
Health Professionals
3,603
3,857
4,116
4,352
4,566
4,751
513
1,148
40
15
ICT Professionals
3,006
3,321
3,655
4,004
4,379
4,783
649
1,777
4
7
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
1,866
2,038
2,218
2,400
2,585
2,777
352
911
19
21
Engineering, ICT and Science Tech's
2,199
2,422
2,643
2,872
3,112
3,356
444
1,157
14
14
Electrotech & Teleco Trades Workers
1,161
1,307
1,456
1,602
1,746
1,895
295
734
2
26
Health and Welfare Support Workers
576
624
673
728
781
829
97
253
30
39
Carers and Aides
2,241
2,409
2,582
2,745
2,896
3,035
341
794
38
24
Sports and Personal Service Workers
1,923
2,117
2,317
2,518
2,727
2,956
394
1,033
10
18
Total Other Occupations
51,015
55,752
60,499
65,241
69,975
74,659
9,484
23,644
Total Employment
87,549
95,638
103,617
111,492
119,381
127,303
16,068
39,754
22
20062031 2,591
18
Growth
20062016 1,014
Source: North Shore Economic Futures Model
2031
%
3
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
In total, the ‘Future Scenario’ sees approximately 127,000 FTEs by 2031 working on the North Shore. This represents growth of some 39,800 from the 2006 position (46% growth). Total occupations in North Shore businesses increase at approximately the same rate (a 47% increase from 101,000 to 148,000). The most significant growth in occupation occurs in the Hospitality sector where in total 68% more workers are required by 2031 than in 2006. This again points to the consumption base of the North Shore economy, and is driven strongly by local population growth and increases in consumption per household. However, in terms of percentage growth the next greatest increases are expected in: • •
Electronic Technology and Telecommunications workers (63%), Design, Engineering, Science and Transport professionals (60%),
• •
ICT professionals (59%), and Arts and Media professionals (58%).
These are key occupations for the city’s targeted business sectors, and are required in large numbers in order for the North Shore economy to achieve even the ‘Future Scenario’. In terms of actual numbers the most growth is required in Specialist Managers, with the economy requiring a further 5,300 by 2031. This is followed by Business and Marketing professionals (3,620), CEOs and Legislators (2,590) and Design and Engineering professionals (2,080). Significant growth in the Health and Education professions is required, with an additional 1,150 and 1,620 workers respectively to meet the growth needs of the city. In addition, ageing of the current workforce that is potentially uneven across different occupation groups is likely to intensify the requirements in certain areas (notably in the health professions). A full set of occupations associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ growth future is included in Appendix 4.1.
3.3 BUSINESS SURVEY – KEY FINDINGS During the initial stage of this project, an internet-based survey was carried out to inform the ‘Future Scenario’ with information provided by businesses of actual growth and future employment intentions for the next five and 10-year periods. Invitations to participate in the survey were sent to businesses on Enterprise North Shore’s mailing list, and links to the website were published in the Enterprise magazine. As of July 2008 end, the response has been limited. In total, around 100 surveys have been completed sufficiently to draw useful information on certain key sectors. Therefore the key points drawn from the survey and described below must be treated with some caution. They have been included to add context to the ‘Future Scenario’ outputs, rather than as a means to either calibrate or verify these outputs. In the long term it is anticipated that alternative forms of data collection from North Shore businesses will provide sufficient information to calibrate the near term outlook from the model.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
KEY POINTS FROM THE SURVEY
8
•
ICT sector respondents are anticipating more than 100% growth over the next five years and are anticipating the industry to be 10 times its current size in 10 year’s time.
• •
Strong growth is expected in the Health sector (61% in five years) and Business Services (47% in five years). ICT sector generates the largest share of sales from exports of all groups, with 22% of revenue generated from export activities – a breakdown of the location of the sector’s revenue generation by area is reflected in Figure 3-1. Financial and Business Services also report strong international earnings, with some 17% of sales from
•
overseas. This is followed by the Manufacturing sector at 16%. The Education and Health sectors are (unsurprisingly) strongly focused on local demand, with 85% and 31% of
•
sales respectively drawn from North Shore City. The Financial and Business Service sector provides significant services to the rest of the Auckland region, with 24% of sales drawn from there (although response in this category is low so this interpretation of data may not be truly representative).
•
•
North Shores’s manufacturing sector looks to be particularly strongly linked into the rest of the Auckland region – providing intermediate inputs into further processing and final demand. In total 37% of its sales are to the rest of the Auckland region. Most industries are linked strongly with other businesses in North Shore City for their purchases (50% or more of upstream purchases), with the exception of Manufacturing where only 5% of purchases are made locally – see Figure 3-2. Imports are particularly high for the Manufacturing sector, accounting for some 64% of total
•
intermediate inputs. North Shores’s Education sector is strongly linked with the rest of the New Zealand economy, with the highest share of purchases made outside of Auckland region (31%). This is most likely to be the purchase of central government services.
FIGURE 3-1: LOCATION OF CLIENT BASE (% OF REVENUE GENERATED FROM A SPECIFIC AREA)
8
CAVEAT: The observations and implications identified from the survey are from a severely limited number of
responses and are indicative only. 24
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 3-2: LOCATION OF SUPPLIERS
3.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS The ‘Future Scenario’ highlights the potential the targeted business sectors have within the North Shore economy to drive growth and deliver better standards of living to city households through wealth creation and employment opportunities under a ‘no change’ outlook. Even so, the ‘Future Scenario’ projection highlights strong growth for the North Shore economy. Significant additional value added is generated in the city, and significant growth in local employment is foreshadowed even before the effects of attraction policies and targeted business assistance is incorporated. The modelling highlights significant growth in particular occupations required to sustain the output growth, and this information can be used to help inform planning for education and training programmes at the city’s tertiary institutes. However, it is also clear that the future will not be as indicated under the ‘Future Scenario’ conditions, meaning agencies such as Enterprise North Shore and North Shore City Council have a significant role to play in facilitating growth in these key sectors by ensuring the conditions for investment in the city are appropriate and that issues such as access to skilled labour and other key factors of production are eased. In order to quantify a likely or optimal future work needs, work needs to be done with businesses to tease out the actual potential inherent in North Shore as a location for these key industry groups, and issues or threats to growth they see.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
PART 3: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’: TOTAL ECONOMY OVERVIEW 4 MODEL OUTCOMES This section describes the ‘Future Scenario’ based on disaggregating the total North Shore economy into 48 economic sectors. In essence, this scenario forms the baseline for assessing the potential impacts of the interventions in the North Shore context. It is stressed that while 48 sectors are used in this scenario, the priority sectors and the accompanying baseline figures have been presented in the preceding section and are not repeated. The primary focus of this section is on the trends and movements in the 48 sectors within the broader environment. The ‘Future Scenario’ as presented in this section concentrates on the North Shore City’s ‘internal’ dynamics. In other words the external environment, which influences the economic activity of the North Shore City, is not included in the discussion but has been incorporated in the modelling activities. This external environment is interpreted as relating to the regional economy (broader Auckland region) and the national (New Zealand) economy. The approach is primarily quantitative in nature and the future inclusion of a qualitative component could translate into a deeper understanding of the interactions and implications ie improve the degree to which local idiosyncrasies are handled in the modelling – the outcomes of the business surveys are used to shed light on these implications. However, the findings of the business survey have been included in the interpretation of the model. The parameters used for the ‘Future Scenario’ modelling, included: • •
The timeframe for this assessment is 2006-2031, with five-year intervals. The two main drivers of future demand9 used in the analysis are: o o
•
Households, Exports – both international and inter-regional.
The economic output, value-added and employment (FTEs) are defined as the outcomes in terms of the modelling and are discussed in the final parts of the section.
For the purposes of the ‘Future Scenario’, it is assumed that there will be no supply constraints inhibiting the ability of the North Shore economy to produce the outputs necessary to meet future demands (eg. shortages of business-zoned land, transportation deficiencies etc). It is further assumed that there will be no major changes in the structure of the North Shore or New Zealand economies over the study period. This means that current economic intra- and interdependencies, supply chain processes and overall production profile will remain constant.
4.1 ECONOMIC DRIVERS (DEMAND) COMPONENTS The demand conditions and components are regarded as ‘drivers’ of the North Shore economy and the following provides an indication of the relative movements and trends in these demand components. As indicated earlier, three elements have been included in the demand/driver part of the model – population, gross fixed capital formation and exports. Population and export performance are discussed in the following sections. Detailed tables containing the data used in the discussions are presented in the Appendices. Only highlights and key observations around the
9 The Economic Futures Model is a demand-driven model, the majority of the assumptions necessary to formulate a scenario pertain to hypothetical levels of future demand for North Shore’s goods and services. The model furthermore includes gross fixed capital information in the calculations but the results of this element is not included in the main discussion.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
different components are discussed with extracts of the data underscoring presented in the text. Where suitable a sectoral approach has been retained to illustrate the trends in economic sectors.
4.1.1 POPULATION – ‘LOCAL DEMAND’ As part of the ‘Future Scenario’, the population trends have been modelled as the population characteristics influence the potential consumer demand for goods and services (key demand segment in the economy). Additionally the population size provides an indication of potentially economic active population or the labour force. The following figures (Figure 4.1 to Figure 4.5) reflect the population pyramid for the North Shore based on the ‘Future Scenario’ of different periods. Figure 4.6 indicates the population growth rates (average annual growth rate) of the individual age cohorts between 2011 and 2031).
FIGURE 4-1: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2021
FIGURE 4-2: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2011
FIGURE 4-3: POPULATION PYRAMID - 2031
FIGURE 4-4: POPULATION GROWTH – 2006-2031
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
The population pyramid indicates the expected distribution of the population over different age categories and the Average Annual Growth Rates (AAGR between the 2011-2031 period). Figure 4-4 illustrates the relative growth rates for the different age categories, and it is evident that the higher age cohorts are expected to grow faster than the younger age categories. For example, all the age categories over 65 years are expected to grow the fastest. The average annual growth rates for these age categories range between 2.5% to >5%. In contrast; the younger age categories are growing comparatively slower, with the 0-29 year segment growing at less than 1%p.a. It is important 27
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
to note that the growth rates expressed in Figure 4-4 are influenced by the relative base from where the movements are calculated – with the older categories reflecting high growth but from small bases. The shift in the age profile – with the associated decline in the labour force – has implications for both the demand and the supply side of the economy. On the supply side, the productive activities will be influenced by the availability of labour (through the labour market and a smaller labour pool) and hence, the (un)availability of labour can be interpreted as a constraint limiting the total output. Apart from the labour element of the population, the community is a key component of the economy – the consumer. As the consumer base ages, the expenditure profiles change, with lower levels of expenditure by the higher age categories.
4.1.2 EXPORT INDUSTRIES The North Shore economy is influenced by the relative performance of the export industries in the local area. Put differently, the relative performance of the exportfocused industries influences the aggregate performance of the local economy. The shifts in the export market (expressed as the average annual growth rate) and the size of the sectoral exports (volume in terms of NZ Dollar) is used as an indicator of the performance of the export sector. An overview of the approach followed to determine the volume and growth rates is presented in Envelope 4.1.
ENVELOPE 4.1: DESCRIPTION OF THE APPROACH FOLLOWED Quantitative estimates of export growth on an industry-by-industry basis were developed using time series analysis of commodity outputs taken from SNZ’s Harmonised System (HS). Given that this data is only available at the national level, rather than by source region, it was necessary to assume that national export trends were representative of regional export trends. Future estimates of physical commodity exports were determined in two steps. Firstly, the HS data was aggregated from 13,000 commodities into a single homogenous commodity per industry. This was undertaken for every year covering the period 1988 to 2005. Secondly, the trends in each industry were determined through time series analysis. For those industries involving intangible exports (i.e. primarily services), future estimates were assumed to equate to FTE growth rates in each industry. The FTE growth rates were determined from a time series analysis covering the 1987 to 2005 period.
The outcome of the exercise is described in the subsequent sections. The relative sizes of the various industries are dealt with first, and the long run growth rates are discussed in the subsequent sections. 4.1.2.1 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – SIZE (VALUE) The export industries and the relative value of the exports - current and future - are presented in Table 4.1. The North Shore City’s exports are generally concentrated (by value) with the top 10 exporting industries ranging from Businesses Services to Basic Metals Manufacturing. The proportional contribution (in value) of the top 10 industries in percentage terms to the export economy is illustrated in Figure 4.5. These 10 sectors account for 67.7% of the total exports of the North Shore economy. However, if the top 10 industries are aggregated into generic production sectors, it becomes evident that 48% (of the top 10 sectors) is manufacturing-based. These five manufacturing sectors account for 32.4% of total North Shore City exports.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-1: EXPORT VOLUME & RANKING Sector Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manufacturing Dairy prod manufacturing Other food manufacturing Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing Textile & apparel manufacturing Wood prod manufacturing Paper & paper prod manufacturing Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing Basic metal manufacturing Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing Trans equipment manufacturing Machinery & equipment manufacturing Furniture & other manufacturing Electricity generation & supply Gas supply Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
$2006m 4.32 0.01 0.02 0.24 0.72 0.55 0.02 0.62 47.67 38.75 2.21 52.97 17.14 21.42 4.42 13.57 40.77 2.37 46.75 42.96 25.05 92.38 15.49 0.00 4.13 83.11 34.22 44.26 8.17 41.74 87.45 17.98 2.38 0.75 1.45 2.32 49.36 0.33 0.05 0.01 0.26 16.16 5.44
Ranking 24 41 40 37 44 32 34 39 45 33 6 12 29 4 17 15 23 20 11 27 7 9 14 1 19 43 46 47 25 3 13 8 21 10 2 16 26 31 30 28 5 35 38 42 36 18 22
2031 ($2006m) 3.98 0.01 0.02 0.09 1.01 0.64 0.01 1.19 141.16 109.66 6.45 55.46 20.03 23.64 4.81 13.27 39.89 2.16 54.88 66.10 28.73 360.44 17.36 0.00 19.70 128.59 78.28 217.32 7.80 40.29 167.69 15.39 2.18 0.57 3.49 1.44 177.51 0.32 0.05 44.12 11.60 123.13
Source: Market Economics Limited – North Shore Economic Futures Model
29
Ranking 28 42 40 38 44 34 35 41 44 33 5 8 26 11 19 18 27 23 16 31 12 10 17 1 21 43 44 44 20 6 9 2 25 15 4 22 30 36 29 32 44 3 37 39 14 24 7
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
FIGURE 4-5: TOP 10 EXPORT INDUSTRIES – 2006/VALUE NZ$
Source: Market Economics Limited Calculations
A sectoral breakdown of the value of goods and services exported by the businesses located in the city is presented in Appendix 4.2. Apart from the large export sectors, highlighted in the preceding, the North Shore economy provides a variety of services and goods to markets beyond its borders. The exports under the ‘Future Scenario’ provide an indication of the interface of the North Shore economy with the broader region, and the growth in exports is highlighted in the following section. 4.1.2.2 EXPORTING SECTORS - TRENDS The ‘Future Scenario’ for the export sector is informed by historic trends and interactions with other economic sectors (as built into the model). The growth rates associated with the ‘Future Scenario’ indicates the rate of change for the different sectors. However the base from which change is expected to occur has to be taken into consideration ie the relative size from where growth is recorded must be considered. The following figure summarises growth rates of the value of exports from different sectors. The projected growth rates are indicative and are subject to a wide range of external variables, such as exchange rate volatility, market shifts and the interest environment. Therefore the growth rates are a reflection of the underlying, long terms trends in each industry/sector. Based on the AAGR in the value of exports, the sector that is expected to have the strongest growth is Education, with projected growth in excess of 250% between 2006 and 2011. The second strongest growth is expected in the Health and Community Services sector – 44%. Appendix 4.3 outlines the projected growth rates in export values per sector over the selected periods. The main observations10 from the future growth rates include: •
Continued growth by the education sector – this sector’s expected rate of growth is significantly (refer to Figure 4-6 for an illustration of the scale) higher than others in the short term and is furthermore also one of the highest
10
Note that not all the movements and trends are listed. For an indication of the movements in the individual sectors,
the reader is referred to Appendix 4.3 30
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
growth rates in the medium to long term. This is likely to be driven by North Shore City’s continued attractiveness to foreign students - note that this growth comes off a small base. In dollar terms the growth in this sector is estimated to be more than $44m over the time period. FIGURE 4-6: ESTIMATED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATE: EXPORTS – 2006-2011*
* - This is only one of the periods investigated – Refer to Appendix 4.3 for the AAGR of the other periods
Source: Based on Market Economic Limited calculations •
The Business Services sector is expected continue to develop its market presence and the value of this sector’s exports is forecast to grow in excess of 5% on an average annual basis. Similarly the services to the Financial and Insurance sectors are also expected to continue to grow at approximately 3.6% in the long term. In total this sector’s exports are expected to increase by $128 between 2006 and 2031.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
Expansion in the value of food-related manufactured goods exported is forecast to continue at more than 2% per
•
annum for all periods under review – the value of the export growth is projected to be $71m. Strong growth in retail trade and accommodation, restaurant and bars is expected. These sectors are expected to
•
expand on an average annual basis of between 3.0% and 8.3%. The manufacturing sub-sector, (industries associated with this sub-sector include paper and paper products, petroleum & industrial chemicals, rubber, plastic and other chemicals, non-metallic mineral product and basic metal manufacturing) is expected to remain relatively stable with a marginal contraction.
•
The machinery and equipment manufacturing sector’s export is expected to grow at approximately 5.7% (AAGR) over the medium to long term. This translates into an increase in export of $268m between 2006 and 2031.
•
The transportation (road, rail and water) sector’s export is expected to remain relatively stable in terms of value, with a marginal contraction (ranging between 0.1% and 0.2% on an average annual basis). In contrast, the sectors providing services to the transportation activities are expected to expand to by approximately 2.6% per annum.
The preceding figure is only indicative of the first period’s expected sectoral growth rates. As mentioned earlier, the expected growth rates for the different sectors for the various periods are presented in Appendix 4.3. The following section presents an overview of the economic outputs of the North Shore economy.
4.2 ECONOMIC OUTPUTS The way in which the North Shore economy combines the production factors and inputs (as discussed in the preceding section) results in a range of economic outputs. The overall output of economic activity in North Shore City, as informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, is outlined in the following section by discussing each individual sectors’ gross output, value-added and employment (Full Time Equivalents or FTEs).
4.2.1 GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS Gross Output is broadly defined as the total value of the transactions ie sales of the producing businesses during a specific period. However this indicator includes the value of intermediate goods and services utilised during the production process. Similarly gross output includes the flow (value) of goods and services relating to government services and households. Appendix 4.3 contains the detailed tables regarding the gross output of the North Shore City economy and an extract of the information (showing the largest sectors, by output) is contained in Table 4.2. This table also provides an indication of: • •
The projected output. The ranking of the sectors.
• •
The percentage change in output. The average annual growth rate of output for the 2006-2031 period.
The shading used in the table is indicative of the relative movement in the ranking of the largest 15 sectors by output over time. A red shading means the sector declined in terms of the relative importance, yellow means the ranking remained stable and a green shading means the sector increased in terms of its importance.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-2: GROSS OUTPUT – SUMMARY OF TOP2006 15 SECTORS SECTOR
PROJECTED OUTPUT1 2006
RANK
2031
2
2006
2031
4
%Δ 2006-313
AAGR 2006-31
Wholesale trade
1898
3020
1
1
59.1%
1.9%
Business Services
1515
3014
2
2
98.9%
2.8%
Owner-occupied dwellings
1026
1524
3
4
48.5%
1.6%
Communication Services
898
1347
4
5
50.0%
1.6%
Construction
887
1686
5
3
90.1%
2.6%
Retail trade
818
1298
6
6
58.7%
1.9%
Real estate
675
1073
7
7
59.0%
1.9%
Health & community Services
503
761
8
8
51.3%
1.7%
Central government
405
605
9
10
49.4%
1.6%
Education
322
525
10
11
63.0%
2.0%
Insurance
320
482
11
12
50.6%
1.7%
Printing, publishing & recorded media
280
461
12
13
64.6%
2.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manuf.
270
368
13
16
36.3%
1.2%
Services to finance & investment
223
346
14
18
55.2%
1.8%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
215
662
16
9
207.9%
4.6%
215
344
16
19
60.0%
1.9%
th
Finance (joint 15 ) 1 = In NZ$m 2004 3 = Percentage Change 2006-2031
Key to shading
2 = Ranked in terms of size of the output in NZ$ 4 = Average Annual Growth Rate
Down
Stable
Up
The output of the largest 15 sectors presented in the preceding table includes owner occupied dwellings as well as the central government sector. The owner-occupied dwellings output is generally referred to as imputed rent11 and while included, debate around the inclusion or exclusion of this sector is ongoing. The comparatively high value of imputed rent as an output in the table implies that the residential component of North Shore City plays an important role in the North Shore City economic context ie the city fulfils a significant residential function. Table 4-2 summarises the gross output of the various economic sectors and ranks the outputs for each different period. With reference to the rankings, under the ‘Future Scenario’, it is clear that the overall structure of the economy (in terms of output) remains relatively stable, with the contribution of individual sectors to economy remaining virtually unchanged. This is inherent in any scenario, as alternative futures relying on alternative policy and attraction settings are not part of the base line. The main observations regarding the rankings are: •
The continued importance of the wholesale trade and business services in the North Shore context. These two sectors made up12 approximately a fifth (20%) of the total output in 2006 and are expected to account for a quarter (25%) of the output in 2031.
11
The Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) in the United States defines imputed rent is an imputation for the net rental income of owner-occupied housing. It is based on the assumption that owner-occupants are in the rental business and that they are renting the houses in which they live to themselves: As tenants, they pay rent to the landlords (that is, to themselves); as landlords, they collect rent from their tenants (that is, from themselves), they incur expenses, and they may have a profit or a loss from the rental business. 12 The proportions mentioned here is if the imputed rent is included in the total output. If imputed rent is excluded, the share of the output captured by these two sectors is calculated as 24.6% and 27.2% for 2006 and 2031 respectively.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The increasing contribution to the North Shore economy by the manufacturing of machinery and equipment – up th
th
from 16 to 9 position in terms of gross output – highlights the need to focus attention on the stimulation of this sector as a potential growth and niche sector. •
The composition of the top 15 industries is expected to remain stable under the ‘Future Scenario’ with the Services to finance and investment- and the finance- sectors falling out of the top 15.
•
The sectors, which entered the top 15 sectors, were the dairy products manufacturing and the cultural and recreational services sectors.
•
The relative concentration of the economy around the top 15 sectors is expected to increase under the ‘Future Scenario’. In 2006, the largest 15 sectors contributed 68.9% to the economic output which is expected to increase to 72.4% by 2031.
The gross output of the North Shore economy is only one dimension, and the discussion of the ‘Future Scenario’ is supplemented by an investigation of the value being added locally by the economic activity described above.
4.2.2 VALUE ADDED PROJECTIONS In contrast to gross output which captures total value of all transactions, the value added component of economic activity focuses on the value created throughout the value chain. The value added projections for the North Shore City economy are discussed in the subsequent section by; 1) Focusing on the overall size of the value added. 2) The projected growth in value added per sector. Value added is an indicator of the size of local business activity and its contribution to the overall wealth of the city as it excludes the value of intermediate goods and services used during the production process. This indicator shows the degree to which the local businesses utilise labour, capital and entrepreneurship to create value excluding inputs and intermediate goods. Appendix 4.5 contains detailed tables relating to the value added per sector in terms of: •
The projected value added per sector.
• •
The proportional contribution per sector to the total value added. The relative ranking (per period) in terms of size of value added.
Extracts from the mentioned appendix are presented in Table 4-3 and used as the basis for highlighting the value added profile in the North Shore City. From the table, a central observation is the rise of the business services sector to become the largest value added sector, replacing the wholesale trade sector (in terms of value added). While not reflected in the table (see Appendix 4.5), this shift occurs in the short term ie between 2006 and 2011. The value added produced by the business services sector is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 2.8%, which is the third fastest in the North Shore City after the machinery and equipment manufacturing and the dairy product manufacturing sectors – projected to grow at 4.6% and 3.5% respectively. The business services sector contributes13 approximately 12% to the North Shore value added(2006) and is expected to contribute more than 14% in 2031 based on the ‘Future Scenario’.
13
This proportional contribution is if imputed rent associated with the owner-occupied dwellings is included.
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Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 4-3: SUMMARY OF KEY VALUE ADDING SECTORS Value Added [$2004million]
SECTORS
2006 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17.
Wholesale trade Business services Owner-occupied dwellings Retail trade Communication services Real estate Health & community services Construction Central government Education Insurance Finance Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Personal & other community services Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational services Key to shading
894 883 843 559 557 538 387 340 272 262 204 193 182 134 115 113 109
%Δ 2006-31
2031
2006-31
1423 1756 1252 887 836 856 586 647 406 427 307 309 248 221 198 348 213 Down
59.2% 98.9% 48.5% 58.7% 50.1% 59.1% 51.4% 90.3% 49.3% 63.0% 50.5% 60.1% 36.3% 64.9% 72.2% 208.0% 95.4%
Ranking 2006
% Share
2031
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 Stable
2 1 3 4 6 5 8 7 10 9 13 12 14 15 17 11 16
AAGR
2006
2031
12.0% 11.9% 11.3% 7.5% 7.5% 7.2% 5.2% 4.6% 3.7% 3.5% 2.7% 2.6% 2.4% 1.8% 1.5% 1.5% 1.5%
11.6% 14.3% 10.2% 7.2% 6.8% 7.0% 4.8% 5.3% 3.3% 3.5% 2.5% 2.5% 2.0% 1.8% 1.6% 2.8% 1.7% Up
20062031 1.9% 2.8% 1.6% 1.9% 1.6% 1.9% 1.7% 2.6% 1.6% 2.0% 1.6% 1.9% 1.2% 2.0% 2.2% 4.6% 2.7%
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited calculations
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, value added is generated by a limited number of sectors and Figure 4-7 illustrates the aggregate contribution of the largest value adding sectors for three groupings ie the largest three, five and 10 sectors (excluding owner-occupied dwellings and based on the industry totals excluding final demand components). With reference to the top 10 value adding sectors (see Table 4.3 and Appendix 4.5 for a breakdown of these sectors), these sectors account for or represent FIGURE 4-7:% VALUE ADDED BY LARGEST SECTORS approximately 75% (three quarters) of total value added in the North Shore economy. However over the long term (until 2031), a marginal decline in the total share is expected ie declining from 74.3% in 2006 to 73.5% in 2031. The top five value adding sectors and their contribution to the economy is expected to remain stable at around 52.1%. The three largest value adding sectors account for 35% of the total value added in the North Shore. Further, the
80%
74.3% 74.3% 73.5%
70% 60% 52.1% 52.0% 52.1%
50% 40%
35.5% 35.9% 36.8%
30% 20% 10% 0% Top 10
Top 5 2006
relative contribution is expected to increase under the ‘Future Scenario’
2016
Top 3
2031
from 35.5% to 36.8% between 2006 and 2031. This implies that the economy is expected to become increasingly concentrated and more reliant on the largest value added generating sectors to provide wealth. The level of diversification or concentration of an economy can be measured by the Tress index14 and the projected Tress Index for the North Shore in terms of value added is: 14
A Tress index of zero represents a totally diversified economy and a higher index (maximum is 100) represents a highly concentrated economy. Generally, the higher the level of concentration in an economy, the more the area is dependant on a small number of sectors. This feature makes
35
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
NORTH SHORE CITY – TRESS INDEX: VALUE ADDED 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
75.19
75.14
75.21
75.21
75.23
75.20
The North Shore economy, under the ‘Future Scenario’, is expected to experience a marginal increase in the level of concentration as expressed by the Tress Index. While the business service sector’s increased contribution to the share of the value added (from 11.9% in 2006 to 14.3% in 2031) furthered the increasing concentration, it is not the primary driver of this increase. Overall the increase in Tress Index is expected to be marginal and not a significant departure from the underlying structure. However the Tress index of 75 indicates that the North Shore economy is not fully diversified and is potentially exposed to external shocks. The following section discusses the employment needs of the North Shore economy under the ‘Future Scenario’.
4.2.3 EMPLOYMENT (FTE) PROJECTIONS Labour is a key production factor and is a requirement for all business activities. The employment requirements (expressed in terms of full time equivalents – FTEs) of the economy under the ‘Future Scenario’ are outlined in the following section. Emphasis is on the total employment pool and the key sectors (out of the 48 sectors) as identified in the preceding sections. Figure 4-8 reflects total projected FTEs in the North Shore City economy under the ‘Future Scenario’. The total number of FTEs required in the economy is expected to increase from approximately 87,500 FTEs in 2006 to 127,150 in 2031. This translates into a percentage movement of 45.2% and an average annual growth rate (2006-2031) of 1.50%. This is behind the projected population growth projections for the 2006-2011 period but faster than the projected population growth for the 2011-2016 and onward periods. The population of the North Shore is projected to grow at 1.22% per annum between 2006 and 2011, and the growth is forecast to accelerate to 1.25% between 2011 and 2016. FIGURE 4-8: FTE - PROJECTIONS The projected rate at which the FTEs grow during the 2006-2031 period is not linear and the rate of growth is expected to slow down. The rates at which the total FTEs are expected to grow during the different timeframes are:
140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000
•
2006-11
1.74%
• •
2011-16 2016-21
1.62% 1.48%
• •
2021-26 2026-31
1.38% 1.30%.
60,000 40,000 20,000 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Apart from total employment, the composition of the labour force (as employed in terms of FTEs) will change as economic structure shifts. Appendix 4.6 details the projected FTE employment levels by sector and Figure 4-9 presents the FTE profile. The business services sector offers the largest number of employment opportunities in the North Shore City economy, accounting for approximately 12,650 FTEs (14.5% of the total FTEs) in 2006 and expected to expand to an estimated 21,400 FTEs by 2031. This sector is also a key driver of the total change in employment growth, accounting for 22.1% of total FTE growth (between 2006 and 2031) in North Shore City. The the economy more vulnerable to exogenous shocks and variables such as adverse climatic conditions, commodity price fluctuations, exchange rate exposures, etc.
36
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
employment structure of the North Shore City economy is dominated by a number of sectors and under the ‘Future Scenario’, this structure is not expected to change in any considerable way. Key employment sectors, both current and future, are: •
The Business Services, Retail Trade and Wholesale Trade sectors (the three largest sectors) accounted for 40.5% of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 –rising to 41.1% in 2031.
•
In addition to these three sectors, the Health and Community, and the Construction sectors captured a further 15% of the FTEs. In total, the five largest sectors by FTEs utilised 55.9% of the North Shore FTEs in 2006 and is
•
expected to employ 56.5% of the FTEs by 2031. The 10 largest sectors by FTE utilisation occupy more than three quarters (approximately 76% for all periods between 2006 and 2031).
In terms of the employment structure (proportion of FTEs per sector), no significant changes are expected under the ‘Future Scenario’. The three largest sectors (by FTE) are expected to remain stable, with only a selected number of ‘positional changes’. Figure 4.11 reflects the employment structure, and the dominance of the employment by the sectors mentioned above is clearly evident. The changes in ranking over time of employment sectors are illustrated in Table 4-4. TABLE 4-4: FTE RANKINGS – MAIN MOVEMENTS SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Business services
1
1
1
1
1
1
Retail trade
2
2
2
2
2
2
Wholesale trade
3
3
3
3
3
3
Health & community services
4
5
5
5
5
5
Construction
5
4
4
4
4
4
Education
6
6
6
6
6
6
Central government
7
7
7
7
7
7
Communication services
8
8
8
8
8
9
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
9
9
9
9
9
8
Personal & other community services
10
10
10
10
10
11
Real estate
11
11
11
12
12
13
Printing, publishing & recorded media
12
12
13
14
14
14
Cultural & recreational services
13
13
14
13
13
12
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
14
14
12
11
11
Key to shading
Down
10
Stable
Up
Source: Based on Market Economics Limited Calculations
Apart from overall stability in the rankings with minor positional changes as indicated in the table, the only other significant observations in the rankings are: •
The strong growth (and increased share of FTEs) being captured by the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sector. This sector’s share of employment increased from 1.7% in 2006 to 3.1% in 2031. Further, the sector’s th
th
strong FTE growth resulted in the sectors relative (expected) position moving from 14 in 2006 to 10 in 2031. This is also the highest number of positions moved by any sector. •
th
The Cultural and Recreational Service sector’s position varied and is projected to be approximately 12 by 2031. 37
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
•
The Real Estate industry is expected to move two positions down between 2006 and 2031, and is projected to end th
in 13 position by 2031. FIGURE 4-9: FTE STRUCTURE (% OF TOTAL FTE) 0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Basic metal manuf
2006
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Business svcs Central government Communication svcs Construction Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf Education Electricity generation & supply Finance Fishing Forestry & logging Furniture & other manuf Gas supply Health & community svcs Horticulture & fruit growing Insurance Livestock & cropping farming Local government Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf Mining & quarrying Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Oil & gas exploration & extraction Other farming Other food manuf Owner-occupied dwellings Paper & paper prod manuf Personal & other community svcs Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Retail trade Road trans Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Svcs to finance & investment Textile & apparel manuf Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wholesale trade Wood prod manuf
Source: North Shore Economic Future Model
38
2031
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
From the preceding discussions it is evident that the sector which dominates the FTE profile of the North Shore is the Business Services sector. Additionally the Retail and Wholesale trades and the Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing sectors also play important roles in the North Shore City FTE profile. Under the ‘Future Scenario’, these sectors will have an increasingly important role in the North Shore economy and the ability/capacity of available employment to fulfil industry needs is of vital importance. One indicator that is used to determine whether a region is self-sufficient in supplying its own needs is the Simple Location Quotient (SLQ) 15. Table 4.5 presents an extract of SLQ for the industries based on the FTEs, with the complete list of SLQ for all the sectors presented in Appendix 4.7. TABLE 4-5: PROJECTED SECTORAL (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS (>1) SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Insurance
2.82
2.83
2.83
2.83
2.84
2.84
Communication services
2.46
2.44
2.43
2.41
2.4
2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
1.89
1.86
1.83
1.81
1.78
1.76
Wholesale trade
1.86
1.85
1.84
1.83
1.82
1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.64
Services to finance & investment
1.48
1.47
1.46
1.45
1.44
1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.45
Real estate
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
Central government
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.45
Business services
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
Retail trade
1.22
1.23
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
Construction
1.09
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
Personal & other community services
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.97
0.98
1.00
1.01
1.02
1.04
Sectors with high SLQ are typically (but not always) export-oriented sectors, which imply that these sectors bring capital into the region in contrast to circulating existing capital in the region (as most retail stores and restaurants do). Sectors which have both high SLQ and relatively high total job numbers typically form the strongest components of a region’s employment base and offer the greatest opportunities for growth of a region’s wealth, as they are often the result of a comparative or competitive advantage the region has - either as a result of natural or human factors.
4.3 DEVELOPMENT POTENTIAL A significant volume of information and data has been presented in earlier sections and it is possible to combine the information in a way that informs North Shore’s future development path in terms of selecting sectors for intervention. The following assessment provides a high level indication of the likely development potential and implications for the main sectors. The approach followed, using a ‘shift-share framework’, enables the identification of emerging and declining sectors. A concise discussion of the shift share framework and its implications is presented in Envelope 4.2. As part of the shift share framework, the Simple Location Quotient is used and is augmented by the use of; 15 The location quotient is a commonly utilised analytical tool that compares the local economy to a reference economy, in the process attempting to identify specialisations in the local economy. The location quotient technique is based upon a calculated ratio between the local economy and the economy of some reference unit. The formula associated with the SLQ has been presented earlier in the document.
39
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
1) The size of the sector in terms of jobs,. 2) The percent change in SLQ over a given time period. The interpretation is oriented toward the North Shore City employment (FTE) situation and it is important to realise that the occupational growth and decline in employment is linked to the trends and performances of the different sectors employing the workers. The sectoral SLQs are linked to the projected movements over time. The modelling that has been completed included different timeframes ie to determine the medium term outlook for different sectors. In addition - by using SLQs - the relationship between each individual local sector, the aggregate North Shore economy, the New Zealand individual sector and the New Zealand economy ensures that both industry (sectoral) dynamics and broader economic relationships are captured. ENVELOPE 4.2: SHIFT SHARE FRAMEWORK The shift share framework used in this analysis of the employment (FTE) structure and the associated trends employs a quadrant approach. A location in one of the 4 respective quadrants has different implications from an analytical perspective. The specific location is determined by indexing the SLQ and the movements in the SLQ over time. A sector in the upper right quadrant (Quadrant I) is more concentrated in the region than average, and also is becoming more concentrated over time. These sectors are “standouts” that distinguish the regional economy and are doing so more every year—and they are especially important if they are also large in terms of jobs. Large sectors in this quadrant are both important and high performing, which means they will have increasing workforce demand. Small industries in this quadrant are emerging, high-potential regional export industries that should be developed further. The lower right quadrant (Quadrant II) contains sectors which are not yet as concentrated in the region as they are at the national (or the relevant benchmark) level, but are becoming more concentrated over time. If they continue this trend, they will eventually move across the horizontal axis into the upper right-hand quadrant. These sectors are referred to as “preemergent” sectors, having the potential to contribute more to the region’s economic base. The upper left quadrant (Quadrant III) contains sectors that are more concentrated in reference region than average, but whose concentration is declining. If a mid-size or large sector is in this quadrant, it is an important warning that the region is losing an important part of its export base and should form planning and investment priorities accordingly. If the region does not bolster these sectors or replace them with other export industries, it will likely enter a general decline in these sectors (and possibly a loss of these sectors). A large occupation in this quadrant usually indicates that the major sector employing people in that occupation is in decline. Finally, the lower left quadrant (Quadrant IV) contains sectors which are less important regionally (the reference economy) than nationally (benchmark economy) and are also declining in employment. If a large proportion of the local sectors are located in this quadrant it could be a warning sign that the region needs to attract more businesses in those industries in order to maintain an economy that is sufficiently balanced and diversified in comparison to the national economy. GRAPHICAL ILLUSTRATION 2.50 Key sector (Future labour demand)
Caution
2.00
1.50 Potential intervention required
Q L 1.00 S
IV
I
III
II
Export potential
Caution “Pre-emergent”
0.50 Potential intervention required
0.00 -15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
% Movement in SLQ
40
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The shift share figures for the North Shore City economy are presented based on the approach outlined in the envelope above. The actual figures resulting from the shift share analysis are presented in Appendix 4.7 which also contains information relating to the shift share including a complete list of the variables at five-year intervals. The Appendix also contains figures reflecting the comparative position of the various sectors. A summary of the shift share analysis is presented in Figure 4-10 to assist with the interpretation vis-a-vis the individual sector’s position in the shift share framework. FIGURE 4-10: SUMMARY OF SHIFT SHARE (SLQ & FTE) Communication svcs Furniture & other manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment Wholesale trade
Business svcs Central government Construction Insurance Personal & other community svcs Retail trade
Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Insurance Personal & other community svcs
1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20
IV I
1.00 Accommodation, restaurants0.80 & bars Basic metal manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf 0.60 Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf 0.40 Electricity generation & supply Finance 0.20 Fishing Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming 0.00 Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf -15.0% Other farming Other food manuf Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Road trans Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wood prod manuf
Textile & apparel manuf
III II
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Basic metal manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Finance
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
Education Forestry & logging Health & community svcs Local government Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Textile & apparel manuf
Note: The actual shift share figures from which this summary has been derived are presented in Appendix 4.7
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, overall importance of each individual sectors’ FTE structure and SLQ is not expected to experience any significant movements or shifts. The importance of the Business Services sector as a key sector is underlined by the preceding assessments and this expected to remain the case. The size of this sector relative to the North Shore economy as a whole implies that its labour force requirements (and its ability to attract labour) is of vital importance for the future wellbeing of both the sector and the economy overall. Similarly the sector’s skills requirements (ie labour quality) are a core issue. Other sectors which have similar features and which are located in Quadrant I include: • •
Insurance, Personal & other Community Services,
• •
Real Estate , and Printing, Publishing & Recorded Media17.
16
16
Moved into Q1 over time
17
Moved into Q1 over time 41
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
A possible reason for the relative importance of the Central Government sector on the North Shore could be attributed to the location of the Defence Forces in Devonport and some of the central government offices (such as Child, Youth & Family offices in Takapuna) as well as other government functions in business nodes throughout North Shore City. It should be noted that specific services delivered by these government agencies could have a focus that is wider than a purely North Shore area (for example, the Naval Base at Devonport). However the location of central government agencies (in North Shore City) plays an important role in the local economy through the occupation of space, and through local multiplier effects through linkages with supporting industries and institutions (such as back office and IT support services). FIGURE 4-11: SHIFT SHARE FIGURES 3.5 0
3.00 Comm Srvs
3.0 0
2.50
Ins urance Business svcs
Ret ail t rad e
2.5 0
2.00 Rubber, pl astic & other chem manuf
W-Sal e Tr ade
2.0 0
1.50 C entral government Con struction
1.00
Furniture& other manuf
Health & co mm svcs
Accom, resta. & bar s
0.5 0 Educati on
Person al & ot her comm svcs
0.00 - 2.0%
-1.0%
0.0 0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-2 .0%
3.0%
1.20
Water & rail trans
0 .5 0
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Local government
Basic metal manuf
0 .4 0
F inance
0.60
0 .3 0
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
Other f ood manuf
-0.5 %
0.0%
0.5 %
Dairy prod manuf H orticulture & fruit growing Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Dairy cattle farming
1.0%
Meat & meat prod manuf Livestock & cropping farming Forestry & logging
0 .1 0
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
0.20 0 .0 0 0.00 -2.0%
-1.0%
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
0 .2 0 Wood prod manuf
-3.0%
-1 .0%
Paper & paper prod manuf 0 .6 0
1.00
0.40
-1.5 %
0 .7 0 Textile & apparel manuf
Trans equipment manuf
0.80
Real es tate Sheet& fabricated metal prod manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Cul tural & recreational svcs Road trans
1.0 0
0.50
-3.0%
Printi ng, publ. & rec. media
Svcs tofi nance & i nvestment
1.5 0
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
-0 .1 0
3.0%
-1 5.0%
-1 0.0%
-5.0 %
0.0 %
5.0 %
10 .0%
0.09 Water supply
0.08 0.07
Fishing
0.06 0.05 0.04
Other farming
0.03
Mining & quarrying
0.02
Electricity generation & supply
0.01 0.00 -20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
NOTE: These figures are replicated in Appendix 4.7 with a larger scale for ease of reference. The Construction sector, while being located in Quadrant 1, does not imply that this sector dominates the local economy. Similarly construction employment in North Shore City does not imply that all the physical construction 42
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
activities are undertaken within the boundaries of the North Shore.
While construction entities (registered
businesses) might be located within North Shore City, their business activities could include construction activity outside the North Shore area. However, the majority of construction activity is aimed at the residential sector. This, coupled with the owner-operator nature of the industry (residential addresses registered as business locations), means that areas with a high residential component (such as the metropolitan centres) and high growth prospects, naturally have high construction employment. The Retail sector is another key sector in the North Shore City context, and based on the SLQ and shifts in the relative position of this sector, implies that retailing is likely to remain a leading sector. Hhe retail SLQ (based on FTE projections) should be interpreted with caution because retail trade is demand-driven. The demand for retail is a function of the socio-economic features of the trade (catchment) area and economic conditions. In the case of the SLQ, the value larger than one means that the area has retail facilities which service more than merely the North Shore population, or that the inherent characteristics of the North Shore population support a higher level of retail than the national average. In essence, this means that the retail sector could be serving a catchment that is greater than just the North Shore City area. This could relate to the large retailing precincts such as the Westfield Albany area and the bulk retail of Wairau Valley, attracting retail spending from outside North Shore City. The Wholesale Trade sector is a key employer (large FTE basis) and is located in Quadrant IV. A closer inspection of the projected SLQ and FTEs for this sector reveals that the sector is comparatively stable and is expected to have a constant increase/growth in the number of FTEs employed. Wholesaling’s location in Q-IV is therefore not a critical issue. The Textile and Apparel Manufacturing sector is expected to move into QI in the long term. However, the location of this sector in QI is subject to intermittent movements out of the quadrant. In other words, the sector has a ‘marginal’ score in terms of the SLQ. While this sector is comparatively small (on an FTE basis) compared to the Business Services and Retail sectors, the sector provides an opportunity for diversifying the manufacturing base. It should however be noted that this sector is likely to face significant market pressures from low-cost international manufacturers and it is envisaged that the entities in this sector are likely to focus on the niche, high-quality manufactured products eg techni-textiles for the garment industry and other high tech materials such as sails for the marine industry. With reference to Quadrant II, the make-up of this quadrant is forecast to remain relatively stable under the ‘Future Scenario’ with a total of five sectors moving in and out of this quadrant. The sectors moving out of Quadrant II under the ‘Future Scenario’ are: • •
Air Transport, Services to Transport and Storage Textiles & Apparel Manufacturing
to QIII. to QI (discussed in the preceding).
The sectors which are expected to move into QII under the ‘Future Scenario’ assumptions include: •
Basic Metals Manufacturing.
• •
Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing. Finance sectors.
The movement of Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing into Quadrant II confirms the features associated with this sector in the preceding section ie this manufacturing sub-sector is expected to grow in the short to long term in terms of its position in the local economy. As indicated in preceding sections, Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing was one of the key important sectors in terms of: 43
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
• •
Long term growth in value added. Long term growth in output.
•
Export by value.
This industry’s movement from QIII to QII highlights the emerging importance of this sector with a potential focus on the export market. While Basic Metals Manufacturing also moves from QIII to QII, this sector is not as significant as Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing in terms of growth, value added or output. Basic Metals Manufacturing is one of the largest (7th largest) exporters, but is relatively small in terms of both value added and employment (FTE). However, from an industry perspective, potential synergies exist between the two sectors. Under the ‘Future Scenario’, manufacturing activities with development potential (as identified through the preceding analysis) are expected to be associated with: • •
Basic Metals Manufacturing. Machinery and Equipment Manufacturing.
• •
Non-metallic Mineral Product Manufacturing. Paper and Paper Product Manufacturing.
The other three sectors that feature in QII include Local Government, Education, and Health and Community Services. The local government sector is a key role-player in the local economy and has distinctive roles (such as co-ordinator, stimulator, facilitator and developer) but is not a sector that can be targeted through stimulatory instruments to drive economic development or to improve the functioning of the economic system per se. The emergence of Education as a potential key contributor to the North Shore economy is highlighted by the shift share framework. While this sector is not currently in QI, it has an important role to play in the economy through the provision of employees with targeted skill sets. It is important to distinguish the dual role of this sector. Firstly the sector produces an economic output (as projected and discussed in the preceding sections) and, secondly the sector provides a service to the economy with specific emphasis on the quality of the labour force. Both these components are, however, critically important for the future of the North Shore City economy. Other observations regarding Figure 4-10 include: •
The location of the Accommodation, Restaurant and Bars sector in QIII does not imply that this sector is not important in the local context. This sector has a strong interface with the retail sector and supports this sector. It is a small employer (in terms of FTEs), however the low SLQ could be interpreted as a gap in the current market
•
profile – especially around the leisure industry (hotels and tourism industry type activities). The Manufacturing sub-sectors which play a smaller role are predominantly related to the agri-processing type activities as well as some of the traditionally heavy industries (such as petro-chemical processing).
Under the ‘Future Scenario’, a number of potential patterns and movements in the economic structure were identified. These shifts and movements have different implications for the economic functioning of the city. The development indicators used by Enterprise North Shore should provide an indication of likely development opportunities.
44
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
4.4 CONCLUDING REMARKS The ‘Future Scenario’ provides a baseline that could be used to measure the impacts of development interventions in the North Shore economy. While the movements and dynamics of the broader economy will also influence the North Shore economy and sectors, using instruments such as location quotients enables a wide tracking of sectoral movements based on local, regional and national trends. Similarly by using the development indicators for the North Shore, intervention points could be identified and conversely selection of appropriate development programmes can be prioritised. By inference, this also means that development issues and constraints that could not be realistically influenced can be monitored and their influence on the economy can be tracked. By maintaining an understanding of the environment within which North Shore businesses operate, it is possible to identify and highlight: • •
Emerging constraints. Trends in the existing constraints.
• •
Emerging development opportunities. Uptake of salient/latent development opportunities.
•
Shifts in the economic and sectoral structure.
By monitoring the development environment, as informed by the ‘Future Scenario’, implications of movements in one or many of these variables can be determined and appropriate responses can be designed and implemented in time. Examples of the dimensions to monitor include: • •
The growth and movements in selected sectors (such as the targeted business sectors). Monitoring of trends in the economic structure such as the growing importance of business services in terms of employment and proportional labour market structure, and the ability of the labour force to meet industry requirements (in terms of quality and quantity of labour).
•
Clarifying the need and rationale for regional economic infrastructure, such as transport infrastructure and telecommunications infrastructure.
•
Monitoring the supporting industries and institutions and their comparative contribution to the performance of the economy and key sectors – the ‘services to the Finance and Insurance sector’ is an example of a supporting
•
industry. Identification of emerging sectors, and linking the sectors with appropriate development assistance. For example, the Education sector.
A key issue associated with the indicators is that they are based on historic data and are subject to a time lag. Hence, monitoring of indicator movements needs to be informed by the overall economic context (such as the movements in the external macro-economic environment). While modelling of this external environment is beyond the ambit of this study, numerous free sources exist that provide quarterly commentaries on the external environment. These commentaries should be used to sketch the context within which any assessment of economic performance by the North Shore or North Shore businesses is undertaken. Examples of these commentaries include: •
New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER).
• •
Various financial institutions both public and private (eg Westpac, National Bank, Bank of New Zealand). Statistics New Zealand.
•
Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
45
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The inclusion of commentaries enables the timely identification of movements in the market place which might not be evident in the modelling outputs. One of the features of the economy that will receive ongoing monitoring is employment and capital productivity. However, sectoral productivity measurements are only available at a national level and not at territorial authority level. They are subsequently captured under the external environment component and are not part of the core indicator set of North Shore City’s economic performance. The proposed indicator set is presented in the following section.
46
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
5 DEVELOPMENT INDICATORS Development indicators, based on the overall economy as well as the North Shore’s targeted business sectors, are presented in this section. The primary focus is on the main indicators and the establishment of a baseline for future tracking of the economy. In addition to the main (and traditional) measures of economic and business activity (output, value added and employment) a number of ratios have been included to reflect the changing conditions. The indicators outline elements associated with general economic parameters and their relationship with the broader economy (Auckland region and New Zealand) in terms of business units and employee counts on an annual basis between 2001 and 2007. In addition, the relative share (proportion) of business and employment profiles have been included together with an indication of the relative share of growth (decline) captured in North Shore City and the Auckland region. Intuitive labels have been used and the reader is referred to Table 5-1 to view the following indicators: •
Businesses o o
•
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand). Employment (Employee Counts) o o
•
•
Total number of entities Growth in entities
Total number of employees Change in employees over time
o Share of overall growth (North Shore – Auckland region and Auckland region to New Zealand). North Shore – targeted business sectors o o
Employment by targeted business sector (based on Employee Counts) Number of business in the targeted business sectors and the associated growth trends (and comparative
o
figures as outlined above) An indication of the share of the business and employment captured by the targeted business sectors in
relation to the other ‘non- targeted business sectors’ in the different areas. Value of building consents o o
The total value of the construction (value of building consents) A sectoral breakdown of value of the building consents using 17 sectors.
Table 5-1 provides the information associated with the preceding and also provides an indication of overall trends (between 2001 and 2007) in the final column. The three tables (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4) provide detailed information about the sectors for North Shore City, Auckland region and New Zealand. More specifically, the three tables provide the same information for the three economies and provide estimated historic and forecast levels of: • •
The gross output per targeted business sector The value added per targeted business sector
• •
The employment (Full Time Equivalent - FTEs ) Value added per FTE
•
Output per FTE.
18
18
FTEs were used for the future projections and the employee counts were used to inform the estimates of the recent
employment levels. 47
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The tables also provide an indication of average annual growth rates for each individual targeted business sectors and for the different timeframes out to 2031. The information and indicators used in this section (Table 5-2 to Table 5-4) has furthermore been packaged into ratios that shed light on the internal (area-based) characteristics of the targeted business sectors ie the relative share of the targeted business sectors towards: 1) The comparative contribution to output and value added of the targeted business sectors in the North Shore compared with the Auckland region and the Auckland region to New Zealand (refer to Table 5-5 and Table 5.6). 2) The relative contribution that each area’s targeted business sectors make towards the aggregate targeted business output, value added and FTEs is presented in Table 5-7. It is stressed that while the sector level parameters (outlined in the preceding section) are not replicated in this section, the ongoing monitoring of the ‘Future Scenario’ is implied. The information associated with projected gross output, value added and employment is contained in the following appendices • •
Appendix 4.4: Projected Gross Output Per Sector Appendix 4.5: Projected Value Added Per Sector
•
Appendix 4.6: Projected Employment – Full Time Equivalents (FTEs)
Similarly the location quotients for the individual 48 (Appendix 4.7) should also form part of the monitoring activity. The rationale for monitoring the SLQ of all sectors in the North Shore economy is based on the fact that the measure encompasses trends in the broader economy, as well as the local sector into one parameter. Monitoring of the SLQ movements is not envisaged to provide a definitive indication of emerging sectors but rather to act as a ‘Warning Signal’ and to trigger focused investigation around the causes of the movement. This is partially because a 48 sector breakdown of the economy is necessarily coarse, meaning that detailed understanding of shifts is not able to be developed by simply focusing on a 48 sector SLQ assessment. The shift share framework employed in the preceding section provides the necessary baseline for this monitoring.
48
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS ASPECT
AREA
YEAR
# % # % # % # % TARGETED BUSINESSES
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
TREND (2001-2007)
NORTH SHORE
14,426
14,606
15,459
17,169
18,372
19,112
19,423
AUCKLAND REGION
120,892
121,943
128,132
141,067
148,485
153,326
156,141
NEW ZEALAND
403,645
408,416
422,548
453,662
474,007
490,474
499,940
NS: AUCKLAND
11.9%
12.0%
12.1%
12.2%
12.4%
12.5%
12.4%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ
30.0%
29.9%
30.3%
31.1%
31.3%
31.3%
31.2%
NEW ZEALAND
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
291
1,159
2,208
1,572
884
553
AUCKLAND REGION
1,051
6,189
12,935
7,418
4,841
2,815
NEW ZEALAND
4,771
14,132
31,114
20,345
16,467
9,466
SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND)
27.7%
18.7%
17.1%
21.2%
18.3%
19.6%
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ)
22.0%
43.8%
41.6%
36.5%
29.4%
29.7%
NORTH SHORE
% OF TARGETED
NORTH SHORE – TARGETED SECTORS
GROWTH IN EMPLOYME
EMPLOYMENT
GROWTH IN BUSINESSES
BUSINESSES
2001
NORTH SHORE
66,652
70,876
74,107
78,537
81,655
83,500
86,121
AUCKLAND REGION
518,231
532,021
553,603
578,870
598,736
612,247
627,072
NEW ZEALAND
1,612,237
1,661,627
1,716,538
1,785,493
1,844,660
1,880,821
1,923,306
NS: AUCKLAND
12.9%
13.3%
13.4%
13.6%
13.6%
13.6%
13.7%
AUCKLAND REGION: NZ
32.1%
32.0%
32.3%
32.4%
32.5%
32.6%
32.6%
NEW ZEALAND
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
100%
NORTH SHORE
4224
3231
4430
3118
1845
2,621
AUCKLAND REGION
13790
21582
25267
19866
13511
14,825
NEW ZEALAND
49390
54911
68955
59167
36161
42,485
SHARE OF GROWTH (NS: AUCKLAND)
30.6%
15.0%
17.5%
15.7%
13.7%
17.7%
27.9%
39.3%
36.6%
33.6%
37.4%
34.9%
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
377
385
398
422
427
399
393
EDUCATION
290
313
332
354
367
364
370
SPORTS
201
203
226
245
273
287
296
SHARE OF GROWTH (AUCKLAND: NZ)
691
697
733
773
827
875
898
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
3,746
3,818
4,033
4,426
4,695
4,808
5,018
OTHER
14,426
14,606
15,459
17,169
18,372
19,112
19,423
TOTAL
19,731
20,022
21,181
23,389
24,961
25,845
26,398
HIGH TECHNOLOGY
1.91%
1.92%
1.88%
1.80%
1.71%
1.54%
1.49%
EDUCATION
1.47%
1.56%
1.57%
1.51%
1.47%
1.41%
1.40%
SPORTS
1.02%
1.01%
1.07%
1.05%
1.09%
1.11%
1.12%
HEALTH
3.50%
3.48%
3.46%
3.30%
3.31%
3.39%
3.40%
FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
18.99%
19.07%
19.04%
18.92%
18.81%
18.60%
19.01%
HEALTH
49
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-1: INDICATORS ASPECT
AREA
ABSOLUTE MOVEMENT % OF GROWTH SECTORAL BREAKDOWN
VALUE OF BUILDING CONSENTS
TARGETED SECTORS’ MOVEMENTS
OTHER TOTAL HIGH TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION SPORTS HEALTH FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TOTAL TARGETED OTHER TOTAL HIGH TECHNOLOGY EDUCATION SPORTS HEALTH FINANCIAL & PROFESSIONAL SERVICES TOTAL TOTAL AGRICULTURE MINING MANUFACTURING ELECTRICITY, GAS & WATER SUPPLY CONSTRUCTION WHOLESALE TRADE RETAIL TRADE ACCOMMODATION, CAFES & RESTAURANTS TRANSPORT & STORAGE COMMUNICATION SERVICES FINANCE & INSURANCE PROPERTY & BUSINESS SERVICES GOVERNMENT ADMINISTRATION & DEFENCE EDUCATION HEALTH & COMMUNITY SERVICES CULTURAL AND RECREATIONAL SERVICES PERSONAL AND OTHER SERVICES
YEAR
TREND (2001-2007)
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
73.11% 100.00%
72.95% 100.00%
72.99% 100.00%
73.41% 100.00%
73.60% 100.00%
73.95% 100.00%
73.58% 100.00%
13 19 23 36 393 306 853 1,159 4.2% 6.2% 7.5% 11.8% 70.3% 100.0% 83,281,050 60,500 8,400,000 15,000 881,000 6,559,000 2,687,800 45,000 19,900 18,719,850 24,875,000 20,488,000 530,000
24 22 19 40 269 498 1,710 2,208 4.8% 4.4% 3.8% 8.0% 78.9% 100.0% 121,265,716 272,942 11,023,000 148,985 490,000 44,360,000 3,645,500 2,310,000 800,000 22,274,000 30,778,289 282,000 4,221,000
5 13 28 54 113 369 1,203 1,572 1.4% 3.5% 7.6% 14.6% 72.9% 100.0% 144,331,432 755,442 170,000 30,254,600 11,067,700 115,000 7,844,500 43,738,700 2,500,000 36,176,000 669,490 590,000
-28 -3 14 48 210 144 740 884 -19.4% -2.1% 9.7% 33.3% 78.5% 100.0% 156,589,690 11,000 2,597,000 1,130,000 220,000 29,893,500 32,364,500 950,000 2,720,000 60,333,300 32,000 12,044,443 13,324,447 639,500
-6 6 9 23
82,793,261 78,000 4,104,861 150,000 14,156,200 6,471,400 5,506,400 409,000 34,900,900 8,927,500 1,789,000 4,800,000
8 23 2 6 215 111 180 291 7.2% 20.7% 1.8% 5.4% 64.9% 100.0% 77,685,655 144,000 3,136,355 25,000 761,000 13,826,000 17,338,000 4,435,000 1,838,000 12,617,000 35,000 18,001,000 2,330,000 2,695,800
1,500,000
503,500
-
660,000
10,450,000
330,000
72
50
242 311 553 -2.5% 2.5% 3.7% 9.5% 86.8% 100.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – NORTH SHORE NORTH SHORE Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'m High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total industry) TBAP Share of North Shore
2006 830,880 67,187 116,642 1,807,717 378,930 3,201,355 12,872,000 24.87%
2007* 851,571 68,703 119,753 1,854,374 386,332 3,280,734 13,177,910 24.90%
2008* 872,862 70,253 122,948 1,902,265 393,880 3,362,208 13,491,090 24.92%
2011 940,546 75,116 133,053 2,053,666 417,425 3,619,806 14,476,000 25.01%
2016 1,062,930 83,463 152,434 2,324,309 457,546 4,080,682 16,150,000 25.27%
2021 1,199,937 92,017 173,381 2,619,925 496,948 4,582,208 17,900,000 25.60%
2026 1,360,372 100,781 196,936 2,949,092 534,910 5,142,090 19,744,000 26.04%
2031 1,546,551 109,545 223,542 3,314,878 570,774 5,765,290 21,678,000 26.60%
2006-2011 2.51% 2.26% 2.67% 2.58% 1.95% 2.49% 2.38%
2011-2016 2.48% 2.13% 2.76% 2.51% 1.85% 2.43% 2.21%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.45% 2.54% 2.60% 1.97% 1.84% 1.68% 2.61% 2.58% 2.57% 2.42% 2.40% 2.37% 1.67% 1.48% 1.31% 2.35% 2.33% 2.31% 2.08% 1.98% 1.89%
2011-2031 2.52% 1.90% 2.63% 2.42% 1.58% 2.35% 2.04%
2006-2031 2.52% 1.97% 2.64% 2.46% 1.65% 2.38% 2.11%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total industry) TBAP Share of North Shore
2006 461,177 54,668 61,592 1,071,232 289,942 1,938,611 7,429,000 26.10%
2007* 472,527 55,904 63,293 1,098,370 295,611 1,985,705 7,597,940 26.13%
2008* 484,199 57,169 65,041 1,126,214 290,500 2,023,122 7,770,721 26.04%
2011 521,256 61,136 70,580 1,214,177 319,425 2,186,574 8,313,000 26.30%
2016 587,882 68,022 81,054 1,374,036 349,813 2,460,806 9,253,000 26.59%
2021 664,254 74,908 92,049 1,549,351 380,140 2,760,701 10,230,000 26.99%
2026 750,078 82,002 104,529 1,743,376 409,809 3,089,794 11,246,000 27.47%
2031
2006-2011 2.48% 2.26% 2.76% 2.54% 1.96% 2.44% 2.27%
2011-2016 2.43% 2.16% 2.81% 2.50% 1.83% 2.39% 2.17%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.47% 2.46% 2.59% 1.95% 1.83% 1.67% 2.58% 2.58% 2.57% 2.43% 2.39% 2.36% 1.68% 1.51% 1.31% 2.33% 2.28% 2.27% 2.03% 1.91% 1.82%
2011-2031 2.49% 1.90% 2.63% 2.42% 1.58% 2.32% 1.98%
2006-2031 2.49% 1.97% 2.66% 2.44% 1.66% 2.34% 2.04%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-2011 2.11% 1.57% 2.07% 2.03% 1.30% 1.88% 2.71%
2011-2016 2.06% 1.49% 2.02% 1.98% 1.22% 1.82% 1.62%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.10% 2.19% 2.31% 1.32% 1.17% 1.02% 1.94% 1.92% 1.91% 1.90% 1.89% 1.89% 1.02% 0.85% 0.66% 1.74% 1.72% 1.72% 1.48% 1.38% 1.30%
2011-2031 2.16% 1.25% 1.95% 1.91% 0.94% 1.75% 1.45%
2006-2031 2.15% 1.31% 1.97% 1.94% 1.01% 1.77% 1.70%
852,401 89,096 118,654 1,958,799 437,318 3,456,269 12,308,000 28.08%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total) TBAP Share of North Shore
4,245 1,083 989 12,357 4,928 23,602 83,500 28.27%
4,326 1,098 1,008 12,594 4,978 24,003 86,121 27.87%
4,409 1,112 1,028 12,358 5,028 23,934 90,202 26.53%
4,713 1,171 1,096 13,663 5,257 25,899 95,424 27.14%
5,217 1,261 1,211 15,071 5,584 28,345 103,413 27.41%
5,790 1,346 1,333 16,559 5,874 30,902 111,299 27.77%
6,451 1,427 1,466 18,180 6,127 33,651 119,209 28.23%
7,230 1,501 1,612 19,962 6,333 36,638 127,150 28.81%
Value Added Per FTE ($) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total)
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2006 108,645 50,462 62,287 86,693 58,836 82,139 88,970
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2007* 109,240 50,934 62,773 87,216 59,388 82,728 88,224
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 109,826 51,411 63,262 91,135 57,779 84,528 86,148
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2011 110,610 52,210 64,414 88,864 60,767 84,427 87,116
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 112,676 53,938 66,937 91,171 62,642 86,817 89,476
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 114,730 55,633 69,041 93,566 64,718 89,337 91,915
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 116,274 57,456 71,298 95,895 66,885 91,818 94,339
117,894 59,347 73,618 98,126 69,057 94,336 96,799
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.36% 0.37% 0.68% 0.65% 0.67% 0.77% 0.50% 0.51% 0.65% 0.61% 0.55% 0.56% -0.42% 0.54%
2016-2021 0.36% 0.62% 0.62% 0.52% 0.65% 0.57% 0.54%
2021-2026 0.27% 0.65% 0.65% 0.49% 0.66% 0.55% 0.52%
2026-2031 0.28% 0.65% 0.64% 0.46% 0.64% 0.54% 0.52%
2011-2031 0.32% 0.64% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.56% 0.53%
2006-2031 0.33% 0.65% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.56% 0.34%
213,901 72,967 138,695 166,059 90,131 157,358 170,492
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.39% 0.41% 0.68% 0.63% 0.58% 0.72% 0.54% 0.52% 0.65% 0.63% 0.60% 0.59% -0.32% 0.58%
2006-2013 0.34% 0.64% 0.65% 0.51% 0.64% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2014 0.35% 0.66% 0.65% 0.50% 0.63% 0.60% 0.59%
2006-2015 0.28% 0.66% 0.64% 0.47% 0.64% 0.59% 0.58%
2006-2016 0.35% 0.65% 0.67% 0.50% 0.64% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2017 0.36% 0.65% 0.65% 0.51% 0.64% 0.60% 0.40%
2031 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
Output Per FTE ($) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) North Shore (Total)
2006 195,740 62,018 117,958 146,295 76,894 135,641 154,156
2007* 196,868 62,595 118,769 147,247 77,613 136,682 153,016
2008* 197,983 63,178 119,584 153,934 78,340 140,476 149,565
2011 199,583 64,148 121,428 150,305 79,411 139,766 151,702
2016 203,725 66,181 125,885 154,225 81,934 143,966 156,170
2021 207,254 68,340 130,044 158,218 84,604 148,281 160,828
2026 210,880 70,614 134,329 162,216 87,302 152,805 165,625
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
51
2031
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-3: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS – AUCKLAND REGION AUCKLAND REGION Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
2006 4,933,057 973,834 950,888 14,226,258 2,465,871 23,549,908 98,421,000 23.93%
2007* 5,075,849 999,533 981,367 14,621,557 2,519,443 24,197,748 101,071,111 23.94%
2008* 5,223,329 1,025,909 1,012,823 15,028,007 2,574,194 24,864,262 103,796,822 23.95%
2011 5,695,623 1,109,290 1,113,379 16,317,490 2,745,786 26,981,568 112,451,000 23.99%
2016 6,518,135 1,254,498 1,298,734 18,584,965 3,039,801 30,696,134 126,956,000 24.18%
2021 7,476,945 1,406,208 1,508,161 21,066,877 3,333,590 34,791,780 142,479,000 24.42%
2026 8,618,147 1,564,059 1,749,439 23,816,609 3,626,651 39,374,905 159,182,000 24.74%
2031 9,988,694 1,726,966 2,029,406 26,876,783 3,911,424 44,533,273 177,178,000 25.13%
2006-2011 2.92% 2.64% 3.21% 2.78% 2.17% 2.76% 2.70%
2011-2016 2.73% 2.49% 3.13% 2.64% 2.06% 2.61% 2.46%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.78% 2.88% 3.00% 2.31% 2.15% 2.00% 3.04% 3.01% 3.01% 2.54% 2.48% 2.45% 1.86% 1.70% 1.52% 2.54% 2.51% 2.49% 2.33% 2.24% 2.17%
2011-2031 2.85% 2.24% 3.05% 2.53% 1.78% 2.54% 2.30%
2006-2031 2.86% 2.32% 3.08% 2.58% 1.86% 2.58% 2.38%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
2006 2,270,353 737,600 571,290 8,969,495 1,746,710 14,295,448 52,154,000 27.41%
2007* 2,338,008 756,997 589,718 9,214,389 1,785,095 14,684,207 53,518,508 27.44%
2008* 2,407,907 776,905 608,740 9,466,082 1,714,365 14,973,998 54,918,716 27.27%
2011 2,631,900 839,824 669,570 10,263,893 1,947,350 16,352,536 59,343,000 27.56%
2016 3,033,279 949,994 781,431 11,668,772 2,156,912 18,590,388 66,909,000 27.78%
2021 3,503,383 1,064,499 908,048 13,198,469 2,366,784 21,041,184 74,965,000 28.07%
2026 4,061,209 1,183,700 1,054,010 14,882,214 2,575,465 23,756,598 83,585,000 28.42%
2031 4,733,553 1,306,874 1,223,755 16,747,092 2,778,205 26,789,478 92,829,000 28.86%
2006-2011 3.00% 2.63% 3.23% 2.73% 2.20% 2.73% 2.62%
2011-2016 2.88% 2.50% 3.14% 2.60% 2.07% 2.60% 2.43%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.92% 3.00% 3.11% 2.30% 2.15% 2.00% 3.05% 3.03% 3.03% 2.49% 2.43% 2.39% 1.87% 1.70% 1.53% 2.51% 2.46% 2.43% 2.30% 2.20% 2.12%
2011-2031 2.98% 2.24% 3.06% 2.48% 1.79% 2.50% 2.26%
2006-2031 2.98% 2.31% 3.09% 2.53% 1.87% 2.54% 2.33%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2011-2016 2.38% 1.83% 2.42% 2.10% 1.43% 2.01% 1.86%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.45% 2.56% 2.69% 1.65% 1.49% 1.34% 2.34% 2.32% 2.32% 2.01% 1.97% 1.95% 1.23% 1.06% 0.88% 1.93% 1.89% 1.87% 1.74% 1.65% 1.58%
2011-2031 2.52% 1.58% 2.35% 2.01% 1.15% 1.93% 1.71%
2006-2031 2.52% 1.65% 2.39% 2.05% 1.23% 1.97% 1.77%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry) TBAP Share of ARC
25,260 14,379 5,903 92,493 30,170 168,204 616,094 27.30%
25,891 14,661 6,053 94,552 30,642 171,799 628,661 27.33%
26,540 14,950 6,206 92,511 31,122 171,328 641,504 26.71%
28,606 15,849 6,688 103,266 32,608 187,017 681,756 27.43%
32,175 17,351 7,538 114,547 35,013 206,624 747,668 27.64%
36,317 18,827 8,464 126,521 37,225 227,354 814,958 27.90%
41,207 20,272 9,491 139,475 39,238 249,684 884,392 28.23%
2006-2011 47,062 21,666 10,643 153,626 40,985 273,981 956,366 28.65%
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology $ Education $ Sports & Performance $ Financial & Professional$ Health $ Total (TBAP) $ ARC (Total industry) $
2007* 89,881 51,299 96,773 96,975 57,896 84,989 84,653
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 90,303 51,632 97,432 97,453 58,256 85,473 85,131
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
90,727 51,968 98,096 102,324 55,085 87,399 85,609
2011 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 92,005 52,988 100,114 99,393 59,720 87,439 87,044
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 94,276 54,751 103,662 101,869 61,604 89,972 89,490
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 96,467 56,542 107,282 104,318 63,581 92,548 91,986
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
100,582 60,320 114,986 109,012 67,785 97,779 97,064
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.47% 0.49% 0.65% 0.66% 0.68% 0.70% 0.49% 0.49% 0.62% 0.62% 0.57% 0.57% 0.56% 0.56%
2016-2021 0.46% 0.65% 0.69% 0.48% 0.63% 0.57% 0.55%
2021-2026 0.43% 0.65% 0.69% 0.45% 0.64% 0.56% 0.54%
2026-2031 0.41% 0.65% 0.70% 0.43% 0.65% 0.55% 0.53%
2011-2031 0.45% 0.65% 0.69% 0.46% 0.64% 0.56% 0.55%
2006-2031 0.45% 0.65% 0.69% 0.47% 0.63% 0.56% 0.55%
212,247 79,710 190,687 174,950 95,434 162,541 185,262
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.39% 0.35% 0.66% 0.65% 0.66% 0.69% 0.54% 0.53% 0.60% 0.61% 0.60% 0.59% 0.64% 0.58%
2006-2013 0.32% 0.65% 0.68% 0.52% 0.62% 0.59% 0.59%
2006-2014 0.31% 0.65% 0.68% 0.51% 0.63% 0.60% 0.58%
2006-2015 0.30% 0.65% 0.68% 0.49% 0.64% 0.61% 0.58%
2006-2016 0.32% 0.65% 0.68% 0.51% 0.63% 0.60% 0.58%
2006-2017 0.33% 0.65% 0.68% 0.52% 0.62% 0.60% 0.59%
2031 98,556 58,390 111,050 106,701 65,637 95,147 94,511
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
Output Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) ARC (Total industry)
195,294 67,728 161,074 153,809 81,734 140,008 159,750
2007* 196,049 68,175 162,140 154,640 82,222 140,849 160,772
2008* 196,808 68,624 163,212 162,446 82,713 145,126 161,802
2011
2016 199,106 69,990 166,473 158,014 84,206 144,273 164,943
2021 202,586 72,300 172,285 162,248 86,820 148,561 169,803
2026 205,881 74,692 178,182 166,508 89,553 153,029 174,830
2031 209,142 77,152 184,321 170,759 92,427 157,699 179,990
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
52
2.52% 1.97% 2.53% 2.23% 1.57% 2.14% 2.05%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-4: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: NEW ZEALAND NEW ZEALAND Output per TBAP Sector NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
2006 12,121,985 2,828,872 2,391,892 28,558,455 7,774,846 53,676,050 290,970,000 18.45%
2007* 12,457,609 2,887,107 2,461,082 29,265,657 7,903,720 54,975,175 298,270,902 18.43%
2008* 12,803,714 2,946,541 2,532,274 29,990,618 8,034,729 56,307,877 305,782,680 18.41%
2011 13,908,620 3,132,285 2,758,450 32,276,631 8,440,934 60,516,920 329,639,000 18.36%
2016 15,817,983 3,446,375 3,172,953 36,136,807 9,098,498 67,672,616 367,217,000 18.43%
2021 18,032,292 3,766,319 3,645,399 40,304,038 9,722,767 75,470,814 407,634,000 18.51%
2026 20,648,412 4,093,151 4,196,830 44,850,646 10,315,971 84,105,011 451,118,000 18.64%
2031 23,775,066 4,423,083 4,845,725 49,830,918 10,856,944 93,731,735 498,009,000 18.82%
2006/7 2.77% 2.06% 2.89% 2.48% 1.66% 2.42% 2.53%
2011-2016 2.61% 1.93% 2.84% 2.29% 1.51% 2.26% 2.18%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.65% 2.75% 2.86% 1.79% 1.68% 1.56% 2.81% 2.86% 2.92% 2.21% 2.16% 2.13% 1.34% 1.19% 1.03% 2.21% 2.19% 2.19% 2.11% 2.05% 2.00%
2011-2031 2.72% 1.74% 2.86% 2.20% 1.27% 2.21% 2.08%
2006-2031 2.73% 1.80% 2.86% 2.25% 1.34% 2.25% 2.17%
Value added - TBAP Sectors NZ$'000 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
2006 5,061,107 2,187,606 1,439,911 18,772,440 5,617,922 33,078,985 147,146,000 22.48%
2007* 5,209,388 2,232,367 1,481,698 19,228,875 5,711,157 34,513,866 165,268,000 20.88%
2008* 5,362,518 2,278,045 1,524,697 19,696,573 5,652,033 34,513,866 183,407,000 18.82%
2011 5,852,772 2,420,762 1,661,331 21,170,103 6,099,831 37,204,799 165,268,000 22.51%
2016 6,734,463 2,663,217 1,911,585 23,653,383 6,574,076 41,536,724 183,407,000 22.65%
2021 7,769,792 2,909,116 2,197,601 26,321,786 7,024,692 46,222,988 202,664,000 22.81%
2026 9,006,108 3,160,526 2,531,424 29,217,859 7,451,395 51,367,311 223,194,000 23.01%
2031 10,499,613 3,414,346 2,924,679 32,372,349 7,839,081 57,050,068 245,105,000 23.28%
2006-2011 2.95% 2.05% 2.90% 2.43% 1.66% 2.38% 2.35%
2011-2016 2.85% 1.93% 2.85% 2.24% 1.51% 2.23% 2.10%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.90% 3.00% 3.12% 1.78% 1.67% 1.56% 2.83% 2.87% 2.93% 2.16% 2.11% 2.07% 1.33% 1.19% 1.02% 2.16% 2.13% 2.12% 2.02% 1.95% 1.89%
2011-2031 2.97% 1.73% 2.87% 2.15% 1.26% 2.16% 1.99%
2006-2031 2.96% 1.80% 2.87% 2.20% 1.34% 2.20% 2.06%
2006
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2011-2016 2.41% 1.27% 2.13% 1.72% 0.85% 1.59% 1.55% 0
Average Annual Growth Rate 2016-2021 2021-2026 2026-2031 2.48% 2.59% 2.73% 1.13% 1.02% 0.90% 2.12% 2.16% 2.23% 1.65% 1.62% 1.60% 0.67% 0.53% 0.36% 1.53% 1.51% 1.51% 1.47% 1.41% 1.36% 0 0 0
2011-2031 2.55% 1.08% 2.16% 1.65% 0.60% 1.53% 1.45% 0
2006-2031 2.54% 1.14% 2.17% 1.70% 0.68% 1.57% 1.52% 0
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2011-2016 0.42% 0.43% 0.65% 0.65% 0.69% 0.70% 0.52% 0.51% 0.65% 0.65% 0.63% 0.62% 0.54% 0.55%
2016-2021 0.41% 0.65% 0.69% 0.50% 0.66% 0.62% 0.54%
2021-2026 0.40% 0.65% 0.69% 0.48% 0.66% 0.61% 0.53%
2026-2031 0.38% 0.65% 0.69% 0.46% 0.66% 0.61% 0.52%
2011-2031 0.40% 0.65% 0.69% 0.49% 0.65% 0.62% 0.54%
2006-2031 0.41% 0.65% 0.69% 0.50% 0.65% 0.62% 0.54%
Average Annual Growth Rate 2006-2011 2006-2012 0.27% 0.19% 0.66% 0.65% 0.68% 0.69% 0.56% 0.55% 0.65% 0.65% 0.68% 0.66% 0.71% 0.63%
2006-2013 0.17% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.66% 0.63%
2006-2014 0.15% 0.65% 0.68% 0.53% 0.66% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2015 0.13% 0.65% 0.67% 0.52% 0.67% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2016 0.16% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.67% 0.63%
2006-2017 0.18% 0.65% 0.68% 0.54% 0.66% 0.67% 0.64%
Employment (TBAP Sectors) High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP) NZ(Total industry) TBAP Share of NZ
57,648 42,323 16,850 189,779 99,751 406,351 1,841,441 22.07%
59,087 42,912 17,221 193,391 100,752 413,362 1,874,424 22.05%
60,567 43,509 17,599 189,831 101,763 413,270 1,908,126 21.66%
65,271 45,352 18,784 208,550 104,859 442,815 2,013,741 21.99%
73,519 48,300 20,873 227,122 109,413 479,228 2,174,378 22.04%
83,101 51,090 23,182 246,527 113,154 517,055 2,338,859 22.11%
94,435 53,746 25,800 267,129 116,166 557,277 2,508,394 22.22%
2006-2011
108,029 56,214 28,804 289,222 118,262 600,531 2,684,057 22.37%
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology $ Education $ Sports & Performance $ Financial & Professional$ Health $ Total (TBAP) $ NZ(Total industry) $
2007* 87,794 51,689 85,453 98,917 56,320 81,405 79,908
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2008* 88,165 52,022 86,043 99,430 56,685 83,495 88,170
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
88,538 52,358 86,637 103,759 55,541 83,514 96,119
2011 $ $ $ $ $ $ $
2016 89,669 53,377 88,444 101,511 58,172 84,019 82,070
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2021 91,601 55,139 91,581 104,144 60,085 86,674 84,349
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2026 93,498 56,941 94,798 106,770 62,081 89,397 86,651
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
2031 95,368 58,804 98,116 109,377 64,144 92,176 88,979
$ $ $ $ $ $ $
97,193 60,738 101,536 111,929 66,286 94,999 91,319
Output Per FTE ($) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (TBAP)
210,277 66,840 141,949 150,482 77,943 132,093
2007* 210,835 67,280 142,916 151,329 78,447 132,995
2008* 211,396 67,722 143,890 157,986 78,955 136,250
2011
2016 213,090 69,066 146,851 154,767 80,498 136,664
2021 215,154 71,353 152,011 159,107 83,157 141,212
2026 216,992 73,719 157,251 163,487 85,925 145,963
2031 218,652 76,157 162,666 167,899 88,804 150,921
* = The projections associated with these periods are based on modelling performed "outside" the EFM
53
220,081 78,683 168,229 172,293 91,804 156,081
2.52% 1.39% 2.20% 1.90% 1.00% 1.73% 1.81% 0
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
TABLE 5-5: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (NORTH SHORE: AUCKLAND REGION) Output per Targeted Business Sector 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
16.84%
16.78%
16.71%
16.51%
16.31%
2021 16.05%
2026 15.78%
2031 15.48%
6.90%
6.87%
6.85%
6.77%
6.65%
6.54%
6.44%
6.34%
12.27%
12.20%
12.14%
11.95%
11.74%
11.50%
11.26%
11.02%
12.71%
12.68%
12.66%
12.59%
12.51%
12.44%
12.38%
12.33%
15.37%
15.33%
15.30%
15.20%
15.05%
14.91%
14.75%
14.59%
13.59%
13.56%
13.52%
13.42%
13.29%
13.17%
13.06%
12.95%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2026
2031
20.21%
20.11%
19.81%
19.38%
18.96%
18.47%
18.01%
7.41%
7.39%
7.36%
7.28%
7.16%
7.04%
6.93%
6.82%
10.78%
10.73%
10.68%
10.54%
10.37%
10.14%
9.92%
9.70%
11.94%
11.92%
11.90%
11.83%
11.78%
11.74%
11.71%
11.70%
16.60%
16.56%
16.95%
16.40%
16.22%
16.06%
15.91%
15.74%
13.56%
13.52%
13.51%
13.37%
13.24%
13.12%
13.01%
12.90%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors) 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology
2021
20.31%
16.8%
16.7%
16.6%
16.5%
16.2%
2021 15.9%
2026 15.7%
2031 15.4%
7.5%
7.5%
7.4%
7.4%
7.3%
7.2%
7.0%
6.9%
16.8%
16.7%
16.6%
16.4%
16.1%
15.8%
15.4%
15.1%
13.4%
13.3%
13.4%
13.2%
13.2%
13.1%
13.0%
13.0%
16.3%
16.2%
16.2%
16.1%
15.9%
15.8%
15.6%
15.5%
14.0%
14.0%
14.0%
13.8%
13.7%
13.6%
13.5%
13.4%
TABLE 5-6: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: SELECTED RATIOS (AUCKLAND REGION: NEW ZEALAND)
% OF REGION (AUCK:NZ) Output per Targeted Business Sector 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2021
2026
2031
40.70%
40.74%
40.80%
40.95%
41.21%
41.46%
41.74%
42.01%
34.42%
34.62%
34.82%
35.41%
36.40%
37.34%
38.21%
39.04%
39.75%
39.88%
40.00%
40.36%
40.93%
41.37%
41.68%
41.88%
49.81%
49.96%
50.11%
50.56%
51.43%
52.27%
53.10%
53.94%
31.72%
31.88%
32.04%
32.53%
33.41%
34.29%
35.16%
36.03%
43.87%
44.02%
44.16%
44.59%
45.36%
46.10%
46.82%
47.51%
Value added - Targeted Business Sectors 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
2007*
2008*
2011
2016
2026
2031
44.88%
44.90%
44.97%
45.04%
45.09%
45.09%
45.08%
33.72%
33.91%
34.10%
34.69%
35.67%
36.59%
37.45%
38.28%
39.68%
39.80%
39.93%
40.30%
40.88%
41.32%
41.64%
41.84%
47.78%
47.92%
48.06%
48.48%
49.33%
50.14%
50.94%
51.73%
31.09%
31.26%
30.33%
31.92%
32.81%
33.69%
34.56%
35.44%
43.22%
42.55%
43.39%
43.95%
44.76%
45.52%
46.25%
46.96%
Employment (Targeted Business Sectors) 2006 2007* 2008* 2011 2016 High Technology
2021
44.86%
43.8%
43.8%
43.8%
54
43.8%
43.8%
2021 43.7%
2026 43.6%
2031 43.6%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
34.0%
34.2%
34.4%
34.9%
35.9%
36.9%
37.7%
38.5%
35.0%
35.1%
35.3%
35.6%
36.1%
36.5%
36.8%
36.9%
48.7%
48.9%
48.7%
49.5%
50.4%
51.3%
52.2%
53.1%
30.2%
30.4%
30.6%
31.1%
32.0%
32.9%
33.8%
34.7%
41.4%
41.6%
41.5%
42.2%
43.1%
44.0%
44.8%
45.6%
TABLE 5-7: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS: AREA BASED RATIOS
% OF TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS WITHIN EACH AREA NORTH SHORE (% OF TARGETED) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
25.95%
25.96%
25.96%
25.98%
26.05%
26.19%
26.46%
26.83%
2.10%
2.09%
2.09%
2.08%
2.05%
2.01%
1.96%
1.90%
3.64%
3.65%
3.66%
3.68%
3.74%
3.78%
3.83%
3.88%
56.47%
56.52%
56.58%
56.73%
56.96%
57.18%
57.35%
57.50%
11.84%
11.78%
11.71%
11.53%
11.21%
10.85%
10.40%
9.90%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
AUCKLAND REGION (% OF TARGETED) 2006 High Technology Education Sports & Performance Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
20.95%
20.98%
21.01%
21.11%
21.23%
21.49%
21.89%
22.43%
4.14%
4.13%
4.13%
4.11%
4.09%
4.04%
3.97%
3.88%
4.04%
4.06%
4.07%
4.13%
4.23%
4.33%
4.44%
4.56%
60.41%
60.43%
60.44%
60.48%
60.54%
60.55%
60.49%
60.35%
10.47%
10.41%
10.35%
10.18%
9.90%
9.58%
9.21%
8.78%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
NEW ZEALAND (% OF TARGETED) 2006
Value Added Per FTE ($) 2007* 2008* 2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
High Technology Education Sports & Performance
22.58%
22.66%
22.74%
22.98%
23.37%
23.89%
24.55%
25.37%
5.27%
5.25%
5.23%
5.18%
5.09%
4.99%
4.87%
4.72%
4.46%
4.48%
4.50%
4.56%
4.69%
4.83%
4.99%
5.17%
Financial & Professional Health Total (Targeted)
53.21%
53.23%
53.26%
53.33%
53.40%
53.40%
53.33%
53.16%
14.48%
14.38%
14.27%
13.95%
13.44%
12.88%
12.27%
11.58%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
100.0%
55
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
6 LIST OF REFERENCES Bank of New Zealand Economic Outlook. Bloom, D., Canning, D. and Sevilla, J. (2002) The Demographic Dividend: A New Perspective on the Economic Consequences of Population Change. RAND, Santa Monica, California. Bureau of Economic Analysis (U.S. Department of Commerce). Website: http://www.bea.gov/regional/definitions/. Meintjes C.J. Guidelines to Regional Socio-economic Analysis. Development Bank of Southern Africa. Development Information Business Unit. Development Paper 145. ISBN 1 919692-58-4. Fernández-Villaverde, J and Krueger, D. (2004) Consumption over the Life Cycle: Facts from Consumer Expenditure Survey Data. University of Pennsylvania & University of Frankfurt, CEPR, and NBER. Guest, R., Bryant, J. and Scobie, G. (2003) Population Ageing in New Zealand: Implications for Living Standards and the Optimal Rate of Saving. New Zealand Treasury Working Paper 03/10, Wellington. Ministry of Health (2002) Health of Older People in New Zealand: A Statistical Reference. Ministry of Health, Wellington. New Zealand Institute for Economic Research (NZIER) –Quarterly Survey of Business Opinion. Statistics New Zealand. WestPac – Economic Overview Q2, 2008.
56
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
7 APPENDIX 1.1: OVERVIEW OF EFM APPROACH The construction of the EFM begins with the generation of economic accounts that are presented in the format of an input-output table. For each industry and final demand (ie household consumption, exports and gross fixed capital formation) category of the economy, these economic accounts cover: • •
Intermediate inputs (ie as provided by other economic industries). Primary inputs (eg. wages and salaries, operating surplus and depreciation of fixed capital).
• Imports. The economic accounts also cover key economic indicators including gross output, Gross Regional Production (GRP) and full-time equivalent employees (FTEs). The following steps were required to generate the economic accounts: Step 1: Construction of Input-Output Table A multi-regional input-output table was constructed for the financial year ending 31 March 2004. The table was generated by following the GRIT (Generating Regional Input-Output Tables) procedure as developed at the University of Queensland by Jensen et al. (1979). In brief this required the following steps: 1. Statistics New Zealand’s (SNZ) 1995-96 Inter-Industry Study of the New Zealand Economy (the latest national input-output table available) was updated to the 2004 financial year. Updating is conducted on a per industry basis accounting for volume, price, and productivity changes over the intervening eight-year period. 2. The 2004 national input-output table was ‘regionalised’ so as to generate individual input-output tables for each territorial authority within New Zealand. This regionalisation process is undertaken by estimating the degree of regional self-sufficiency, with respect to each economic sector, relative to the nation as a whole. Simple Location Quotients (SLQs)19 are used for this purpose. It can also be noted that all of the individual input-output tables are connected by cross-boundary trade flows (ie inter-regional imports and exports). Overall the 2004 input-output model for the North Shore covers 48 industries, eight primary inputs and eight final demands. Step 2: Estimation of Gross Regional Product 20
Based on the multi-regional input-output tables generated in Step 1, estimates of Gross Regional Product (GRP), and its contribution from individual industries, were determined. As a means of validation, the estimated values were then compared with historical counterparts for the New Zealand economy.
19
Mathematically, the SLQ for a given industry, i, is calculated as:
Empir / Empin SLQi = Emp r / Emp n
( (
where
Empir
) )
is the total number of people employed in the industry in the district or region in question,
employed in the industry in the nation,
Empin is the total number of people
Emp r is total employment in the region or district, and Empn is the total employment in the nation .
All employment figures are measured in FTE equivalents excluding those in management structures. Stated simple, the SLQ is North Shore industry is greater than 1 (SLQ>1), then the industry is deemed to be ‘strong’ in the local economy (i.e. able to satisfy local demand and export). Conversely, industries with a SLQ less than 1 are deemed to be ‘weak’ and therefore unable to satisfy local demand. 20 GRP is a measure of the total flows of goods and services produced by an economy over a year. It is obtained in input-output terms by summing the value of the primary inputs economy-wide and subtracting total imports. It excludes the value of intermediate goods and services as these are implicitly included in the price of final goods.
57
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
Step 3: Estimation of Economic Multipliers The multi-regional input-output table generated in Step 1 further enabled calculation of a full set of economic multipliers for each category of economic industry situated within the North Shore. These multipliers include both 21
Type I (direct and indirect) and Type II (direct, indirect and induced) multipliers, and cover the categories of output , value added, and employment. Indirect multiplier impacts are those that result from the repercussionary effects of supply chain processing (ie backward linkages), while induced multiplier impacts account for changes in consumer spending brought about by payment of wages and salaries. Having defined the base economic accounts for the North Shore, it is then possible to derive forecasts of future economic change for the city based on scenario assumptions. A key feature of the EFM model is that it establishes not only direct economic growth and/or decline in key economic industries, but also the indirect impacts associated with flow-on effects. Growth in the Education industry, for example, will most likely result in growth in other activities, such as insurance provision and professional cleaning, as a result of supply chain purchases. Furthermore, if additional workers are required as a result of this growth, then additional expenditure by households will occur. This, in turn, will result in further flow-on growth, particularly services supporting households. The model furthermore captures economic inter-linkages between North Shore and the rest of the New Zealand economy. In this way, the implications of growth in key New Zealand industries within the North Shore economy are also captured. The EFM model essentially works by taking estimates of future household consumption and export demand for 2006, 2011, 2016, 2021 and 2026, and determining the level of economic activity required to meet these demands. The repercussionary or flow-on implications are then calculated using input-output mathematics22, with growth rates by the 48 industries for each five-year period from 2006 to 2026 being the major output. These growth rates, with adjustments for any assumed productivity gains, are then used to estimate the total future economic implications associated with growth.
21 Output is a measure of the total flow of goods and services within an economy. This includes intermediate demand, primary inputs and final demands. It should not be confused with value added (i.e. GRP), which does not include intermediate demand. 22 Input-output tables have been widely used throughout New Zealand to estimate economic impact e.g. for events such as the America’s Cup and the proposed 2011 Rugby World Cup.
58
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
8 APPENDIX 2.1: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS- CLASSIFICATION HIGH TECHNOLOGY SECTOR
EDUCATION SECTOR
C243000 Recorded Media Manufacturing and Publishing N842400 Special School Education C252000 Petroleum and Coal Product Manufacturing nec
N843100 Higher Education
C253200 Industrial Gas Manufacturing
N843200 Technical and Further Education N844000 Other Education
C253300 Synthetic Resin Manufacturing
SPORTS & HIGH PERFORMANCE C294200 Toy and Sporting Good Manufacturing P931110 Racing Clubs and Track Operation (excluding Training and Ownership) P931200 Sports Grounds and Facilities nec P931900 Sports and Services to Sports nec
C253400 Organic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec C253500 Inorganic Industrial Chemical Manufacturing nec C254900 Chemical Product Manufacturing nec C281300 Automotive Electrical and Instrument Manufacturing C281900 Automotive Component Manufacturing nec C282100 Shipbuilding C282200 Boatbuilding C282400 Aircraft Manufacturing C283100 Photographic and Optical Good Manufacturing C283200 Medical and Surgical Equipment Manufacturing C283900 Professional and Scientific Equipment Manufacturing nec C284100 Computer and Business Machine Manufacturing C284200 Telecommunication Broadcasting & Transceiving Equipment Manufacturing C284900 Electronic Equipment Manufacturing nec C285900 Electrical Equipment Manufacturing nec C286300 Food Processing Machinery Manufacturing C286400 Machine Tool and Part Manufacturing C286600 Pump and Compressor Manufacturing C286700 Commercial Space Heating and Cooling Equipment Manufacturing C286900 Industrial Machinery & Equipment Manufacturing nec J712000 Telecommunication Services L781000 Scientific Research L783200 Information Storage & Retrieval Services
HEALTH SECTOR
FINANCIAL AND PROFESSIONAL SERVICES
C254300 Medicinal and Pharmaceutical Product Manufacturing O861100 Hospitals (except Psychiatric Hospitals)
K732100 Banks
O861200 Psychiatric Hospitals
K732300 Credit Unions
O861300 Nursing Homes
K732900 Deposit Taking Financiers nec
O862100 General Practice Medical Services O862200 Specialist Medical Services O862300 Dental Services O863100 Pathology Services O863200 Optometry and Optical Dispensing O863300 Ambulance Services O863500 Physiotherapy Services O863600 Chiropractic Services O863900 Health Services nec
K733000 Other Financiers
K732200 Building Societies
K741100 Life K741200 Superannuation K742100 Health K742200 General K751100 Financial Asset Broking Services K751900 Services to Finance and Investment nec K752000 Services to Insurance L782100 Architectural Services L782200 Surveying Services L782300 Consultant Engineering Services L782900 Technical Services nec L783100 Data Processing Services L783300 Computer Maintenance Services L783400 Computer Consultancy Services L784100 Legal Services L784200 Accounting Services L785100 Advertising Services L785200 Commercial Art and Display Services L785300 Market Research Services L785400 Business Administrative Services L785500 Business Management Services L786100 Employment Placement Services L786300 Secretarial Services Q962100 Business & Professional Associations
59
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
9 APPENDIX 2.2: TARGETED BUSINESS SECTORS - DATA
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF AUCKLAND REGION
LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE AND THE AUCKLAND REGION
Sector High Technology
2001 16.8%
2002 17.2%
2003 17.3%
2004 17.6%
2005 18.1%
2006 16.9%
2007 16.5%
Sector High Technology
2001 0.93
2002 0.87
Education
15.0%
15.4%
15.4%
15.9%
16.1%
15.8%
Sports
17.2%
17.2%
18.1%
18.6%
20.3%
20.2%
Health
17.7%
17.5%
17.6%
17.6%
18.0%
Financial & Professional Services
19.4%
19.5%
19.4%
19.6%
Other
15.6%
15.7%
15.9%
Total
16.3%
16.4%
16.5%
2003 0.92
2004 0.94
2005 0.96
2006 0.99
2007 0.89
15.9%
Education
0.98
20.5%
Sports
1.36
1.00
0.97
0.99
0.98
0.99
1.00
1.34
1.52
1.51
1.49
1.49
18.6%
18.5%
Health
1.44
1.21
1.17
1.11
1.20
1.27
1.33
19.6%
19.3%
19.4%
1.30
Financial & Professional Services
0.89
0.91
0.92
0.91
0.87
0.89
15.9%
16.1%
16.2%
16.3%
0.95
Other
1.01
1.01
1.01
1.00
1.00
0.99
16.6%
16.8%
16.9%
16.9%
0.99
NORTH SHORE CITY GEOGRAPHICAL UNITS AS A PERCENTAGE SHARE OF NEW ZEALAND Sector
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
LOCATION QUOTIENTS: NORTH SHORE & NEW ZEALAND 2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
High Technology
6.5%
6.5%
6.6%
6.8%
6.9%
6.3%
2007 6.0%
High Technology
Sector
1.21
1.11
1.17
1.21
1.24
1.29
1.17
Education
3.7%
4.0%
4.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.3%
4.3%
Education
0.87
0.95
0.93
0.95
0.95
0.97
0.99
Sports
4.4%
4.4%
4.8%
4.9%
5.5%
5.6%
5.6%
Sports
1.41
1.41
1.57
1.48
1.49
1.51
1.43
Health
6.0%
5.9%
6.1%
6.0%
6.2%
6.3%
6.3%
Health
1.01
1.00
0.95
1.01
1.09
1.18
1.16
Financial & Professional Services
8.7%
8.7%
8.8%
8.9%
8.9%
8.7%
8.7%
Financial & Professional Services
1.21
1.26
1.30
1.29
1.24
1.28
1.34
Other
4.4%
4.4%
4.5%
4.6%
4.7%
4.8%
4.8%
Other
0.97
0.96
0.96
0.95
0.95
0.93
0.92
Total
4.9%
4.9%
5.0%
5.2%
5.3%
5.3%
5.3%
60
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
10 APPENDIX 2.3: VALUE & NUMBER OF NON-RESIDENTIAL CONSENTS VALUE OF WORK ($) SECTOR Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Property & Business Services Government Administration & Defence Education Health & Community Services Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services TOTAL
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
TOTAL
155,640
78,000
144,000
60,500
272,942
-
11,000
722,082
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4,236,325
4,104,861
3,136,355
8,400,000
11,023,000
755,442
2,597,000
34,252,983
20,000
150,000
25,000
15,000
148,985
170,000
1,130,000
1,658,985
300,000
-
761,000
881,000
490,000
-
220,000
2,652,000
5,594,063
14,156,200
13,826,000
6,559,000
44,360,000
30,254,600
29,893,500
144,643,363
9,744,600
6,471,400
17,338,000
2,687,800
3,645,500
11,067,700
32,364,500
83,319,500
7,290,000
5,506,400
4,435,000
45,000
2,310,000
115,000
950,000
20,651,400
184,000
409,000
1,838,000
19,900
-
7,844,500
2,720,000
13,015,400
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
110,000
-
-
-
800,000
-
-
910,000
32,015,000
34,900,900
12,617,000
18,719,850
22,274,000
43,738,700
60,333,300
224,598,750
-
-
35,000
-
-
2,500,000
32,000
2,567,000
23,048,788
8,927,500
18,001,000
24,875,000
30,778,289
36,176,000
12,044,443
153,851,020
1,309,000
1,789,000
2,330,000
20,488,000
282,000
669,490
13,324,447
40,191,937
13,380,000
4,800,000
2,695,800
530,000
4,221,000
590,000
639,500
26,856,300
20,000
1,500,000
503,500
-
660,000
10,450,000
330,000
13,463,500
97,407,416
82,793,261
77,685,655
83,281,050
121,265,716
144,331,432
156,589,690
763,354,220
61
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
NUMBER OF BUILDING CONSENTS (NON-RESIDENTIAL) 2000 Agriculture Mining Manufacturing Electricity, Gas & Water Supply Construction Wholesale Trade Retail Trade Accommodation, Cafes & Restaurants Transport & Storage Communication Services Finance & Insurance Property & Business Services Government Administration & Defence Education Health & Community Services Cultural and Recreational Services Personal and Other Services TOTAL
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
TOTAL
4
3
0
0
3
2
0
0
6
0
1
19
0
0
0
14
11
7
0
10
11
3
6
62
1
5
1
0
2
1
10
3
2
24
4
6
5
0
2
11
18
15
18
12
41
21
17
135
17
11
15
10
10
14
8
85
4
4
9
1
3
2
1
24
3
4
9
1
0
7
4
28
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
0
1
0
0
0
1
0
0
2
19
21
13
21
14
24
14
126
0
0
1
0
0
1
1
3
24
21
22
26
22
24
12
151
6
8
4
6
4
5
7
40
5
3
5
2
7
3
1
26
1
3
4
0
4
4
2
18
111
109
116
98
138
111
78
761
62
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
11 APPENDIX 4.1: PROJECTED OCCUPATIONAL STRUCTURE Employment Projections [FTEs] 2011
2016
2021
2026
% Change Between Periods
OCCUPATIONS
2006
2006-11
Chief Executives, General Managers and Legislators
5,217
5,722
6,231
6,746
7,267
7,808
9.7%
Farmers and Farm Managers
84
87
93
98
104
106
3.6%
Specialist Managers
10,962
12,024
13,092
14,150
15,207
16,282
9.7%
Hospitality, Retail and Service Managers
3,888
4,246
4,616
4,981
5,356
5,725
9.2%
Arts and Media Professionals
1,182
1,304
1,435
1,569
1,712
1,865
Business, Human Resource and Marketing Professionals
7,089
7,777
8,478
9,188
9,931
Design, Engineering, Science and Transport Professionals
3,498
3,877
4,268
4,675
Education Professionals
5,250
5,617
5,984
Health Professionals
3,603
3,857
ICT Professionals
3,006
3,321
Legal, Social and Welfare Professionals
1,866
Engineering, ICT and Science Technicians
2011-16
Rank
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2006 - 2031
8.9%
8.3%
7.7%
7.4%
49.7%
18
3
6.9%
5.4%
6.1%
1.9%
26.2%
42
42
8.9%
8.1%
7.5%
7.1%
48.5%
20
1
8.7%
7.9%
7.5%
6.9%
47.2%
22
6
10.3%
10.0%
9.3%
9.1%
8.9%
57.8%
6
27
10,706
9.7%
9.0%
8.4%
8.1%
7.8%
51.0%
16
2
5,110
5,581
10.8%
10.1%
9.5%
9.3%
9.2%
59.5%
3
5
6,317
6,615
6,869
7.0%
6.5%
5.6%
4.7%
3.8%
30.8%
41
10
4,116
4,352
4,566
4,751
7.0%
6.7%
5.7%
4.9%
4.1%
31.9%
40
15
3,655
4,004
4,379
4,783
10.5%
10.1%
9.5%
9.4%
9.2%
59.1%
4
7
2,038
2,218
2,400
2,585
2,777
9.2%
8.8%
8.2%
7.7%
7.4%
48.8%
19
21
2,199
2,422
2,643
2,872
3,112
3,356
10.1%
9.1%
8.7%
8.4%
7.8%
52.6%
14
14
Automotive and Engineering Trades Workers
2,058
2,253
2,454
2,662
2,878
3,099
9.5%
8.9%
8.5%
8.1%
7.7%
50.6%
17
17
Construction Trades Workers
2,085
2,360
2,622
2,867
3,096
3,308
13.2%
11.1%
9.3%
8.0%
6.8%
58.7%
5
13
Electro- tech. & Telecommunications Trades Workers
1,161
1,307
1,456
1,602
1,746
1,895
12.6%
11.4%
10.0%
9.0%
8.5%
63.2%
2
26
Food Trades Workers
1,188
1,312
1,442
1,578
1,716
1,859
10.4%
9.9%
9.4%
8.7%
8.3%
56.5%
8
28
Skilled Animal and Horticultural Workers
750
819
890
961
1,026
1,090
9.2%
8.7%
8.0%
6.8%
6.2%
45.3%
25
37
Other Technicians and Trades Workers
2,520
2,760
2,978
3,201
3,420
3,645
9.5%
7.9%
7.5%
6.8%
6.6%
44.6%
28
16
Health and Welfare Support Workers
576
624
673
728
781
829
8.3%
7.9%
8.2%
7.3%
6.1%
43.9%
30
39
Carers and Aides
2,241
2,409
2,582
2,745
2,896
3,035
7.5%
7.2%
6.3%
5.5%
4.8%
35.4%
38
24
Hospitality Workers
1,836
2,055
2,291
2,541
2,808
3,092
11.9%
11.5%
10.9%
10.5%
10.1%
68.4%
1
12
Protective Service Workers
1,746
1,876
2,004
2,131
2,243
2,344
7.4%
6.8%
6.3%
5.3%
4.5%
34.2%
39
30
Sports and Personal Service Workers
1,923
2,117
2,317
2,518
2,727
2,956
10.1%
9.4%
8.7%
8.3%
8.4%
53.7%
10
18
Office Managers and Program Administrators
1,824
1,994
2,170
2,340
2,515
2,693
9.3%
8.8%
7.8%
7.5%
7.1%
47.6%
21
23
Personal Assistants and Secretaries
1,746
1,917
2,093
2,273
2,452
2,642
9.8%
9.2%
8.6%
7.9%
7.7%
51.3%
15
22
General Clerical Workers
3,597
3,930
4,261
4,595
4,924
5,254
9.3%
8.4%
7.8%
7.2%
6.7%
46.1%
23
9
Inquiry Clerks and Receptionists
2,031
2,214
2,396
2,580
2,768
2,950
9.0%
8.2%
7.7%
7.3%
6.6%
45.2%
26
20
Numerical Clerks
3,024
3,302
3,580
3,855
4,134
4,417
9.2%
8.4%
7.7%
7.2%
6.8%
46.1%
24
11
Clerical and Office Support Workers
1,026
1,113
1,204
1,294
1,383
1,477
8.5%
8.2%
7.5%
6.9%
6.8%
44.0%
29
33
Other Clerical and Administrative Workers
2,199
2,396
2,592
2,790
2,990
3,193
9.0%
8.2%
7.6%
7.2%
6.8%
45.2%
27
19
Sales Representatives and Agents
4,242
4,604
4,954
5,298
5,630
5,945
8.5%
7.6%
6.9%
6.3%
5.6%
40.1%
35
8
Sales Assistants and Salespersons
5,928
6,421
6,907
7,374
7,830
8,261
8.3%
7.6%
6.8%
6.2%
5.5%
39.4%
36
4
63
2031
%
#
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Employment Projections [FTEs]
% Change Between Periods
Rank
OCCUPATIONS
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
2006 - 2031
%
Sales Support Workers
1,542
1,676
1,810
1,941
2,073
2,196
8.7%
8.0%
7.2%
6.8%
5.9%
42.4%
32
29
Machine and Stationary Plant Operators
1,185
1,273
1,364
1,454
1,547
1,635
7.4%
7.1%
6.6%
6.4%
5.7%
38.0%
37
34
Mobile Plant Operators
204
225
249
273
292
312
10.3%
10.7%
9.6%
7.0%
6.8%
52.9%
13
41
Road and Rail Drivers
1,278
1,387
1,492
1,597
1,699
1,796
8.5%
7.6%
7.0%
6.4%
5.7%
40.5%
34
32
Storepersons
1,032
1,121
1,209
1,292
1,378
1,457
8.6%
7.9%
6.9%
6.7%
5.7%
41.2%
33
35
Cleaners and Laundry Workers
1,392
1,539
1,689
1,844
2,014
2,184
10.6%
9.7%
9.2%
9.2%
8.4%
56.9%
7
25
Construction and Mining Labourers
528
589
653
712
770
825
11.6%
10.9%
9.0%
8.1%
7.1%
56.3%
9
38
Factory Process Workers
1,098
1,207
1,317
1,436
1,556
1,682
9.9%
9.1%
9.0%
8.4%
8.1%
53.2%
12
31
Farm, Forestry and Garden Workers
339
366
394
425
454
483
8.0%
7.7%
7.9%
6.8%
6.4%
42.5%
31
40
Food Preparation Assistants
645
710
775
848
919
989
10.1%
9.2%
9.4%
8.4%
7.6%
53.3%
11
36
Other Labourers
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
43
43
Not Elsewhere Included
-
-
-
-
-
-
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
43
43
TOTAL OCCUPATIONS
100,788
110,168
119,647
129,107
138,609
148,152
9.3%
8.6%
7.9%
7.4%
6.9%
47.0%
64
#
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
12 APPENDIX 4.2: ‘FUTURE SCENARIO’ EXPORT PER SECTOR -
10.00
Horticulture & fruit growing
0.01
Dairy cattle farm ing
0.02
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping
50.00
60.00
70.00
80.00
90.00
0.72 0.55
Mining & quarrying
0.02 0.62
Dairy prod m anuf
47.67
Other food m anuf
38.75
Beverage, m alt & tobacco m anuf
2.21
Textile & apparel m anuf
52.97
Wood prod m anuf
17.14
Paper & paper prod m anuf
21.42
Printing, publishing & recorded m edia
4.42
Petroleum & industrial chem m anuf
13.57
Rubber, plastic & other chem m anuf
40.77
Non-m etallic m ineral prod m anuf
2.37
Basic m etal m anuf
46.75
Sheet & fabricated m etal prod m anuf
42.96
Trans equipm ent m anuf
25.05
Machinery & equipm ent m anuf
92.38
Furniture & other m anuf Electricity generation & supply
15.49 0.00
Gas supply
-
Water supply
-
Construction
4.13
Wholesale trade
83.11
Retail trade
34.22
Accom m odation, restaurants & bars
44.26
Road trans
8.17
Water & rail trans
41.74
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
87.45
Com m unication svcs
17.98
Finance Insurance
2.38 0.75
Svcs to finance & investm ent
1.45
Real estate Owner-occupied dwellings
2.32 -
Business svcs Central governm ent
49.36 0.33
Local governm ent
0.05
Education
0.01
Health & com m unity svcs
0.26
Cultural & recreational svcs Personal & other com m unity svcs
100.00
0.24
Fishing
Meat & m eat prod m anuf
40.00
-
Forestry & logging
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
30.00
4.32
Livestock & cropping farm ing
Other farm ing
20.00
16.16 5.44
65
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
13 APPENDIX 4.3: EXPORT GROWTH RATES PROJECTED AVERAGE ANNUAL GROWTH RATES SECTOR
2006-11
2011-16
2016-21
2021-26
2026-31
Horticulture & fruit growing
-1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Livestock & cropping farming
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Dairy cattle farming
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Other farming
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
-4.0%
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Forestry & logging
4.6%
0.1%
1.4%
0.8%
0.0%
Fishing
3.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Mining & quarrying
-2.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
-7.1%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Meat & meat prod manufacturing
3.1%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
Dairy prod manufacturing
7.2%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
3.8%
Other food manufacturing
5.0%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
4.1%
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing
8.0%
5.0%
4.0%
3.0%
2.0%
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Wood prod manufacturing
0.9%
0.1%
1.4%
0.8%
0.0%
Paper & paper prod manufacturing
2.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.7%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing
-0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
-0.4%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing
-1.9%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Basic metal manufacturing
3.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
0.7%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
2.0%
Trans equipment manufacturing
2.8%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
5.2%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
5.7%
Furniture & other manufacturing
2.3%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Electricity generation & supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Gas supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Water supply
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Construction
11.7%
7.4%
5.4%
4.3%
3.6%
Wholesale trade
1.9%
1.8%
1.7%
1.7%
1.7%
Retail trade
3.0%
3.2%
3.5%
3.6%
3.6%
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
8.3%
7.1%
6.3%
5.8%
5.4%
Road trans
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
Water & rail trans
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.2%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Air trans, services to trans & storage
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.6%
2.7%
Communication services
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.7%
-0.6%
-0.4%
Finance
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.4%
-0.3%
-0.2%
Insurance
-1.4%
-1.4%
-1.2%
-0.9%
-0.6%
Services to finance & investment
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
3.6%
Real estate
-2.0%
-2.1%
-2.0%
-1.8%
-1.6%
Owner-occupied dwellings
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
0.0%
Business services
5.3%
5.3%
5.2%
5.2%
5.2%
Central government
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Local government
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
-0.1%
Education
252.4%
17.7%
11.2%
8.5%
7.0%
Health & community services
44.4%
15.6%
10.5%
8.2%
6.9%
Cultural & recreational services
11.3%
9.2%
8.0%
7.2%
6.7%
Personal & other community services
12.3%
9.8%
8.5%
7.7%
7.2%
66
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
14 APPENDIX 4.4: PROJECTED GROSS OUTPUT PER SECTOR GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS
RANKING
CONTRIBUTION - %
[$2004MILLION] 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Horticulture & fruit growing
11
11
12
12
13
14
39
39
39
40
40
40
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Livestock & cropping farming
5
6
6
7
7
8
42
42
42
42
42
42
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Dairy cattle farming
7
7
8
9
9
10
41
41
41
41
41
41
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Other farming
1
1
1
1
1
1
46
46
46
46
46
46
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
4
4
5
5
6
6
43
43
43
43
43
43
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Forestry & logging
12
15
16
17
19
20
38
38
38
38
38
38
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Fishing
3
4
4
4
4
4
44
44
44
44
44
44
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Mining & quarrying
2
3
3
3
4
4
45
45
45
45
45
45
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
0
0
0
0
0
0
48
48
48
48
48
48
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Meat & meat prod manuf
90
100
109
119
128
137
30
30
30
30
30
28
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Dairy prod manuf
178
234
275
323
379
446
21
19
15
15
14
14
1.2
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.7
1.9
Other food manuf
134
155
176
200
227
257
23
23
23
23
23
23
0.9
0.9
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.1
Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
13
15
17
19
21
23
37
37
37
37
37
37
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Textile & apparel manuf
104
112
118
124
130
136
26
26
26
28
28
29
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Wood prod manuf
71
80
87
97
105
113
31
31
31
31
31
31
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.5
Paper & paper prod manuf
65
73
81
89
98
107
33
33
33
32
32
32
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.5
Printing, publishing & recorded media
280
313
347
383
421
461
12
12
12
13
13
13
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.9
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
36
39
42
45
49
52
36
36
36
36
36
36
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.2
Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf
270
287
307
327
347
368
13
13
14
14
16
16
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.6
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf
55
64
73
83
93
103
35
35
34
34
34
33
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Basic metal manuf
66
76
81
87
94
101
32
32
32
33
33
34
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf
211
236
265
297
331
368
17
17
19
18
17
17
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.6
Trans equipment manuf
97
110
117
123
129
136
28
27
28
29
29
30
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
Machinery & equipment manuf
215
265
332
416
524
662
16
14
13
12
10
9
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.1
2.4
2.8
Furniture & other manuf
121
137
151
165
179
192
24
24
24
24
24
24
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Electricity generation & supply
96
105
115
125
134
142
29
29
29
27
27
27
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
67
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
GROSS OUTPUT PROJECTIONS
RANKING
CONTRIBUTION - %
[$2004MILLION] 2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Gas supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
47
47
47
47
47
47
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
Water supply
10
11
12
13
14
15
40
40
40
39
39
39
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
Construction
887
1046
1206
1366
1526
1686
5
4
4
3
3
3
6.0
6.3
6.6
6.9
7.0
7.1
Wholesale trade
1898
2113
2338
2564
2792
3020
1
1
1
1
1
1
12.8
12.8
12.9
12.9
12.8
12.7
Retail trade
818
909
1005
1102
1201
1298
6
6
6
6
6
6
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.5
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
154
179
208
240
276
316
22
22
22
22
22
22
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.3
1.3
Road trans
119
132
145
159
173
187
25
25
25
25
25
25
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
0.8
Water & rail trans
64
67
69
72
75
78
34
34
35
35
35
35
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.4
0.3
0.3
Air trans, services to trans & storage
184
207
232
258
287
319
20
21
21
21
21
21
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Communication services
898
984
1075
1166
1258
1347
4
5
5
5
5
5
6.0
6.0
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.7
Finance
215
239
265
291
317
344
15
16
18
19
19
19
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Insurance
320
353
386
419
452
482
11
11
11
11
12
12
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.0
Services to finance & investment
223
247
272
297
322
346
14
15
16
17
18
18
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.5
Real estate
675
752
833
914
994
1073
7
7
7
7
7
7
4.5
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.6
4.5
Owner-occupied dwellings
1026
1128
1234
1336
1434
1524
3
3
3
4
4
4
6.9
6.8
6.8
6.7
6.6
6.4
Business services
1515
1745
2004
2295
2629
3014
2
2
2
2
2
10.2
10.6
11.0
11.5
12.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6
0.7
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
1.3
Central government
405
446
488
529
568
Local government
98
108
118
128
138
Education
322
360
400
441
483
Health & community services
503
555
609
662
713
Cultural & recreational services
205
234
269
307
350
Personal & other community services
186
209
234
261
290
605 147 525 761 399 321
9
9
9
9
9
27
28
27
26
26
10
10
10
10
11
8
8
8
8
8
18
18
17
16
15
19
20
20
20
20
68
2 10 26 11 8 15 20
12.7 2.6 0.6 2.2 3.2 1.7 1.4
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
15 APPENDIX 4.5: PROJECTED VALUE ADDED PER SECTOR SECTOR
Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agri, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manuf Dairy prod manuf Other food manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Textile & apparel manuf Wood prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Basic metal manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Trans equipment manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Furniture & other manuf Electricity generation & supply Gas supply Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage
Value Added Projections [$2004million]
% Change Btwn Periods
Ranking
% Contribution
AAGR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006-
2011-
2016-
2021-
2026-
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
6 1 3 0 3 5 1 1 0 2 8 41 5 43 17 27 134 8 182 29 26 96 37 113 59 4 0 1 340 894 559 93 49 47 76
6 1 3 0 4 6 1 1 0 3 10 47 5 46 19 31 150 9 193 34 30 107 42 139 67 4 0 2 402 996 621 108 54 49 86
6 1 3 0 4 6 1 1 0 3 12 54 6 48 21 34 166 10 207 39 32 120 44 174 74 4 0 2 463 1102 687 126 60 51 96
6 2 4 0 4 7 1 1 0 3 14 61 7 51 23 37 184 11 220 44 34 134 47 218 81 5 0 2 525 1208 754 146 65 53 107
7 2 4 0 5 7 1 1 0 3 17 69 7 53 25 41 202 11 234 49 37 150 49 275 87 5 0 2 586 1316 821 167 71 55 119
7 2 4 0 5 8 1 1 0 4 19 78 8 56 27 45 221 12 248 55 40 167 52 348 94 5 0 2 647 1423 887 192 77 57 132
11 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 20.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 50.0 25.0 14.6 0.0 7.0 11.8 14.8 11.9 12.5 6.0 17.2 15.4 11.5 13.5 23.0 13.6 0.0 0.0 100.0 18.2 11.4 11.1 16.1 10.2 4.3 13.2
16 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 20.0 14.9 20.0 4.3 10.5 9.7 10.7 11.1 7.3 14.7 6.7 12.1 4.8 25.2 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 15.2 10.6 10.6 16.7 11.1 4.1 11.6
21 0.0 100.0 33.3 0.0 0.0 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 16.7 13.0 16.7 6.3 9.5 8.8 10.8 10.0 6.3 12.8 6.3 11.7 6.8 25.3 9.5 25.0 0.0 0.0 13.4 9.6 9.8 15.9 8.3 3.9 11.5
26 16.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 25.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 21.4 13.1 0.0 3.9 8.7 10.8 9.8 0.0 6.4 11.4 8.8 11.9 4.3 26.1 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 11.6 8.9 8.9 14.4 9.2 3.8 11.2
31 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 33.3 11.8 13.0 14.3 5.7 8.0 9.8 9.4 9.1 6.0 12.2 8.1 11.3 6.1 26.5 8.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 10.4 8.1 8.0 15.0 8.5 3.6 10.9
35 42 39 46 40 36 43 44 47 41 33 27 37 26 32 30 14 34 13 29 31 18 28 16 23 38 48 45 8 1 4 20 24 25 21
35 43 40 46 39 36 44 45 47 41 33 26 37 27 32 30 14 34 13 29 31 19 28 15 22 38 48 42 8 2 4 18 24 25 21
35 43 40 46 39 36 44 45 47 41 33 25 37 27 32 30 15 34 13 29 31 19 28 14 22 38 48 42 8 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 25 36 27 32 30 15 34 13 29 31 19 28 14 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 25 36 27 32 30 15 34 14 29 31 19 28 13 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 24 26 21
37 43 40 46 39 35 44 45 47 41 33 24 36 27 32 30 15 34 14 28 31 19 29 11 22 38 48 42 7 2 4 18 25 26 21
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.4 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0 0.0 4.6 12.0 7.5 1.3 0.7 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.3 0.4 0.4 1.3 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 4.8 12.0 7.5 1.3 0.6 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 1.9 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.0 11.9 7.4 1.4 0.6 0.6 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.2 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.5 2.1 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.1 11.8 7.4 1.4 0.6 0.5 1.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.1 0.4 0.3 1.3 0.4 2.4 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.2 11.7 7.3 1.5 0.6 0.5 1.1
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.4 1.8 0.1 2.0 0.4 0.3 1.4 0.4 2.8 0.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.3 11.6 7.2 1.6 0.6 0.5 1.1
69
20062031 0.6 2.8 1.2 0.0 2.1 1.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.8 3.5 2.6 1.9 1.1 1.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.2 2.6 1.7 2.2 1.4 4.6 1.9 0.9 0.0 2.8 2.6 1.9 1.9 2.9 1.8 0.8 2.2
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Owner-occupied dwellings Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
557 193 204 96 538 843 883 272 60 262 387 109 115
611 214 224 106 600 926 1016 300 66 293 427 125 129
667 237 246 116 665 1014 1167 328 73 326 468 144 145
724 261 267 127 729 1098 1337 355 79 359 509 164 162
780 285 288 138 793 1178 1531 382 85 393 549 187 179
836 309 307 148 856 1252 1756 406 90 427 586 213 198
9.7 10.9 9.8 10.4 11.5 9.8 15.1 10.3 10.0 11.8 10.3 14.7 12.2
9.2 10.7 9.8 9.4 10.8 9.5 14.9 9.3 10.6 11.3 9.6 15.2 12.4
8.5 10.1 8.5 9.5 9.6 8.3 14.6 8.2 8.2 10.1 8.8 13.9 11.7
7.7 9.2 7.9 8.7 8.8 7.3 14.5 7.6 7.6 9.5 7.9 14.0 10.5
7.2 8.4 6.6 7.2 7.9 6.3 14.7 6.3 5.9 8.7 6.7 13.9 10.6
Industry Total
7429
8313
9253
10230
11246
12308
11.9%
11.3%
10.6%
9.9%
9.4%
Total (Incl. Final Demands)
7999
8946
9951
10993
12072
13197
11.8%
11.2%
10.5%
9.8%
9.3%
70
5 12 11 19 6 3 2 9 22 10 7 17 15
5 12 11 20 6 3 1 9 23 10 7 17 16
5 12 11 20 6 3 1 9 23 10 7 17 16
6 12 11 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
6 12 11 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
6 12 13 20 5 3 1 10 23 9 8 16 17
7.5 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.3 11.9 3.7 0.8 3.5 5.2 1.5 1.5
7.3 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.1 12.2 3.6 0.8 3.5 5.1 1.5 1.6
7.2 2.6 2.7 1.3 7.2 11.0 12.6 3.5 0.8 3.5 5.1 1.6 1.6
7.1 2.6 2.6 1.2 7.1 10.7 13.1 3.5 0.8 3.5 5.0 1.6 1.6
100%
6.9 2.5 2.6 1.2 7.1 10.5 13.6 3.4 0.8 3.5 4.9 1.7 1.6
6.8 2.5 2.5 1.2 7.0 10.2 14.3 3.3 0.7 3.5 4.8 1.7 1.6
1.6 1.9 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.6 2.8 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.7 2.7 2.2
2.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
16 APPENDIX 4.6: PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT – FULL TIME EQUIVALENTS (FTES) Sector
EMPLOYMENT / FTES
% Change Btwn Periods
Ranking
% Share
AAGR 2006-
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
0.31% 0.97% 0.93% -0.53%
93
7.1
6.7
5.0
6.0
4.5
36
36
36
36
36
36
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
1.14%
100
4.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 6.1 14.2 10.2 11.5 2.1 6.2 7.1
7.1 0.0 20.0 0.0 5.8 13.2 9.9 6.9 1.7 7.3 6.6
5.5 -6.3 0.0 0.0 3.6 13.9 9.7 6.5 1.4 5.4 6.2
4.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 3.5 13.5 9.5 6.1 1.1 3.9 5.9
35 42 44 48 37 34 25 39 21 28 31
35 42 44 48 37 34 25 39 21 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 33 25 39 22 27 31
35 41 44 46 37 32 24 39 23 28 31
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 1.0 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.9 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2
0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.0 0.8 0.3 0.2
1.32% 0.00% 0.73% 0.00% 1.00% 3.08% 1.97% 1.69% 0.42% 1.23% 1.35%
160
27
28
42
45
47
49
51
53
16
16
15
15
14
70
75
80
84
89
72
81
85
91
96
15
16
16
16
15
15
5
5
5
6
6
6
0
0
0
0
0
0
46
49
52
55
57
59
2031 33 40 38 42
157
26
2026
2026-31
32 40 38 42
154
24
2021
2021-26
32 40 38 42
150
23
2016
2016-21
32 40 38 42
146
22
2011
2011-16
32 40 38 41
148
2006
2006-11
32 40 38 41
2031
1.9 3.7 3.9 0.0
2026
1.9 3.8 4.1 -6.7
2021
2.7 8.3 4.3 0.0
2016
2.7 4.3 4.4 -6.3
2011
14
-1.4 4.5 7.1 0.0
2006 Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Dairy cattle farming Other farming Services to agri, hunting & trapping Forestry & logging Fishing Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Meat & meat prod manuf Dairy prod manuf Other food manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Textile & apparel manuf Wood prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Basic metal manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Trans equipment manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Furniture & other manuf Electricity generation & supply Gas supply
2031
83
106
121
137
156
177
579
648
714
785
861
943
23
26
29
31
33
35
885
924
943
959
972
983
296
322
342
367
387
402
181
197
211
225
239
253
12.5 6.7 0.0 0.0 6.5 27.7 11.9 13.0 4.4 8.8 8.8
1880
2035
2188
2338
2488
2635
8.2
7.5
6.9
6.4
5.9
12
12
13
14
14
14
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
2.1
1.36%
110
114
119
125
130
134
3.6
4.4
5.0
4.0
3.1
33
33
34
34
34
34
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.1
0.79%
1387
1426
1476
1523
1567
1608
2.8
3.5
3.2
2.9
2.6
15
15
16
16
16
16
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.3
1.3
0.59%
259
292
323
354
384
413
233
259
269
280
291
304
12.7 11.2
10.6 3.9
9.6 4.1
8.5 3.9
7.6 4.5
29 30
29 30
28 30
28 30
28 30
27 30
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.3
0.3 0.2
0.3 0.2
1.88% 1.07%
1270
1374
1496
1621
1749
1884
8.2
8.9
8.4
7.9
7.7
16
16
15
15
15
15
1.5
1.4
1.4
1.5
1.5
1.5
1.59%
9.9 19.4 9.7 0.0 0.0
2.5 21.3 6.7 16.7 0.0
2.0 21.5 5.6 0.0 0.0
1.8 21.9 4.9 0.0 0.0
1.5 22.4 4.1 0.0 0.0
24 14 17 43 47
24 14 17 43 47
24 12 17 43 47
24 11 17 43 47
24 11 17 43 47
25 10 17 43 47
0.8 1.7 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.8 1.9 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.8 2.1 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.7 2.4 1.3 0.0 0.0
0.7 2.7 1.2 0.0 0.0
0.6 3.1 1.2 0.0 0.0
0.69% 3.94% 1.21% 0.62% 0.00%
696
765
784
800
814
826
1515
1809
2194
2666
3249
3978
1136
1246
1329
1404
1473
1533
6
6
7
7
7
7
0
0
0
0
0
0
71
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008 Water supply Construction Wholesale trade Retail trade Accommodation, restaurants & bars Road trans Water & rail trans Air trans, services to trans & storage Communication services Finance Insurance Services to finance & investment Real estate Business services Central government Local government Education Health & community services Cultural & recreational services Personal & other community services
Industry Total
16738
0.0 14.2 7.8 7.6
0.0 11.6 7.1 7.1
25.0 9.7 6.2 6.2
0.0 8.2 5.4 5.4
0.0 7.0 4.7 4.7
5145
12.8
12.5
11.8
11.4
11.0
9
9
9
9
1463 327
7.1 0.6
6.6 0.6
5.8 0.6
5.4 0.6
4.9 0.9
18 27
18 28
18 29
18 29
4
4
4
5
5
5
6703
7656
8547
9373
10139
10845
10435
11250
12049
12792
13488
14124
12394
13338
14285
15167
15991
2934
3309
3722
4162
4636
1096
1174
1251
1324
1395
316
318
320
322
324
45 5 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
45 4 3 2
0.0 7.7 11.9 14.2
0.0 8.0 11.8 14.0
0.0 8.3 11.7 13.8
0.0 8.4 11.5 13.6
0.0 8.5 11.3 13.4
0.0 8.5 11.1 13.2
0.90% 1.94% 1.22% 1.21%
9
8
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.9
4.0
2.27%
18 29
18 29
1.3 0.4
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.2 0.3
1.16% 0.14%
754
819
888
958
1032
1108
8.6
8.4
7.9
7.7
7.4
23
23
23
23
23
22
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
0.9
1.55%
3650
3874
4098
4304
4493
4660
828
892
956
1016
1074
1129
1089
1161
1232
1294
1349
1394
1043
1118
1191
1258
1321
1377
2011
2170
2327
2471
2603
2720
12656
14106
15689
17396
19288
21409
4311
4591
4867
5106
5311
5471
467
498
528
555
577
595
5192
5612
6044
6453
6840
7195
6725
7178
7629
8027
8375
8657
1721
1909
2117
2340
2584
2854
6.1 7.7 6.6 7.2 7.9 11.5 6.5 6.6 8.1 6.7 10.9
5.8 7.2 6.1 6.5 7.2 11.2 6.0 6.0 7.7 6.3 10.9
5.0 6.3 5.0 5.6 6.2 10.9 4.9 5.1 6.8 5.2 10.5
4.4 5.7 4.3 5.0 5.3 10.9 4.0 4.0 6.0 4.3 10.4
3.7 5.1 3.3 4.2 4.5 11.0 3.0 3.1 5.2 3.4 10.4
8 22 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 4 13
8 22 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 5 13
8 21 19 20 11 1 7 26 6 5 14
8 21 19 20 12 1 7 26 6 5 13
8 21 19 20 12 1 7 26 6 5 13
9 21 19 20 13 1 7 26 6 5 12
4.2 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 14.5 4.9 0.5 5.9 7.7 2.0
4.1 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 14.8 4.8 0.5 5.9 7.5 2.0
4.0 0.9 1.2 1.2 2.3 15.2 4.7 0.5 5.8 7.4 2.0
3.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 2.2 15.6 4.6 0.5 5.8 7.2 2.1
3.8 0.9 1.1 1.1 2.2 16.2 4.5 0.5 5.7 7.0 2.2
3.7 0.9 1.1 1.1 2.1 16.8 4.3 0.5 5.7 6.8 2.2
0.98% 1.25% 0.99% 1.12% 1.22% 2.12% 0.96% 0.97% 1.31% 1.02% 2.04%
2245
2442
2650
2858
3072
3291
8.8
8.5
7.8
7.5
7.1
10
10
10
10
10
11
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
1.54%
87549
95424
103413
111299
119209
127150
9.0
8.4
7.6
7.1
72
6.7
100
2.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
17 APPENDIX 4.7: PROJECTED SIMPLE LOCATION QUOTIENTS PROJECTED EMPLOYMENT (FTE) LOCATION QUOTIENTS SECTOR
2006
2011
2016
2021
2026
2031
Insurance
2.82
2.83
2.83
2.83
2.84
2.84
Communication services
2.46
2.44
2.43
2.41
2.4
2.39
Rubber, plastic & other chemical manufacturing
1.89
1.86
1.83
1.81
1.78
1.76
Wholesale trade
1.86
1.85
1.84
1.83
1.82
1.81
Printing, publishing & recorded media
1.62
1.62
1.62
1.63
1.63
1.64
Services to finance & investment
1.48
1.47
1.46
1.45
1.44
1.43
Furniture & other manufacturing
1.47
1.46
1.46
1.45
1.45
1.45
Real estate
1.34
1.34
1.35
1.35
1.36
1.36
Central government
1.32
1.34
1.37
1.39
1.42
1.45
Business services
1.25
1.26
1.27
1.29
1.31
1.33
Retail trade
1.22
1.23
1.23
1.24
1.25
1.26
Construction
1.09
1.11
1.11
1.12
1.12
1.13
Sheet & fabricated metal prod manufacturing
1.07
1.07
1.06
1.06
1.05
1.05
Personal & other community services
1.03
1.04
1.04
1.04
1.05
1.05
Trans equipment manufacturing
0.99
0.99
0.97
0.96
0.94
0.93
Textile & apparel manufacturing
0.97
0.98
1
1.01
1.02
1.04
Machinery & equipment manufacturing
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.96
0.97
0.97
Health & community services
0.91
0.93
0.94
0.96
0.97
0.99
Education
0.89
0.9
0.91
0.91
0.92
0.93
Cultural & recreational services
0.81
0.81
0.81
0.8
0.79
0.78
Water & rail trans
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.77
0.78
Basic metal manufacturing
0.76
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.79
0.81
Non-metallic mineral prod manufacturing
0.75
0.76
0.77
0.78
0.78
0.8
Accommodation, restaurants & bars
0.71
0.7
0.68
0.67
0.65
0.64
Local government
0.66
0.67
0.68
0.69
0.7
0.72
Road trans
0.64
0.64
0.63
0.63
0.63
0.62
Paper & paper prod manufacturing
0.61
0.62
0.64
0.66
0.68
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.6
0.61
Petroleum & industrial chemical manufacturing
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
0.53
Air trans, services to trans & storage
0.51
0.52
0.51
0.51
0.51
0.51
Other food manufacturing
0.43
0.42
0.41
0.41
0.4
0.39
Wood prod manufacturing
0.3
0.3
0.31
0.31
0.31
0.32
Dairy prod manufacturing
0.22
0.22
0.21
0.21
0.21
0.21
Forestry & logging
0.15
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
0.16
Horticulture & fruit growing
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
0.12
Water supply
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
0.08
Beverage, malt & tobacco manufacturing
0.08
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
0.07
Services to agriculture, hunting & trapping
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
0.06
Fishing
0.06
0.06
0.05
0.05
0.04
0.04
Other farming
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.02
0.02
0.02
Mining & quarrying
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Meat & meat prod manufacturing
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
0.03
Electricity generation & supply
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
Dairy cattle farming
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.02
0.01
Livestock & cropping farming
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
Oil & gas exploration & extraction
0
0
0
0
0
0
Gas supply
0
0
0
0
0
0
Finance
73
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
The figures reflect the ranked sectors – ranked in terms of 2006 FTEs. The variables presented in the figures, the following applies: • •
X-axis Y-Axis
movement in the SLQ between 2006-2011 SLQ2006
•
Bubble size FTE2006. SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 3.00 Comm Srvs
2.50 Business svcs
Retail trade
2.00 W-Sale Trade
1.50
Central government Construction
1.00
Health & comm svcs
Accom, resta. & bars
0.50 Education
Personal & other comm svcs
0.00 -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 3.50 3.00 Insurance
2.50 Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf
2.00 1.50
Printing, publ. & rec. media
Svcs to finance & investment Furniture & other manuf
Real estate Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Machinery & equipment manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Road trans
1.00 0.50 0.00 -2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
74
0.0%
0.5%
1.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 1.20 Textile & apparel manuf
Trans equipment manuf
1.00 Water & rail trans
0.80
Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Local government
Basic metal manuf Finance
0.60
Air trans, svcs to trans & storage
Other food manuf
0.40
Wood prod manuf
0.20
0.00 -3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006 0.70 Paper & paper prod manuf
0.60
Dairy prod manuf Horticulture & fruit growing
0.50 0.40 0.30
Petroleum & industrial chem manuf
Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Dairy cattle farming Meat & meat prod manuf Livestock & cropping farming
0.20 0.10 0.00
Forestry & logging Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf
-0.10 -15.0%
-10.0%
-5.0%
0.0%
75
5.0%
10.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
SHIFT SHARE – SLQ 2006
0.09 Water supply
0.08 0.07
Fishing
0.06 0.05 0.04
Other farming
0.03
Mining & quarrying
0.02
Electricity generation & supply
0.01 0.00 -20.0%
0.0%
20.0%
40.0%
76
60.0%
80.0%
100.0%
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
18 APPENDIX 4.8: PROJECTED SLQ QUADRANTS SUMMARY OF SECTORAL MOVEMENTS & SHIFT SHARE (QUADRANTS) PERIOD
2006-2011
2026-2031
2006-31
2006-31
SLQ (PERIOD)
2006
2026
2006
2031
1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 4 4 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 4 4 1 3 2 3 2 2 2 2 2 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 4 4 4 4 4
1 1 1 1 1 1 3 2 2 2 2 2 2 1 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 3 2 3 2 4 4 1 1 4 4 4 4
Business svcs Central government Construction Insurance Personal & other community svcs Retail trade Air trans, svcs to trans & storage Education Forestry & logging Health & community svcs Local government Non-metallic mineral prod manuf Paper & paper prod manuf Textile & apparel manuf Accommodation, restaurants & bars Basic metal manuf Beverage, malt & tobacco manuf Cultural & recreational svcs Dairy cattle farming Dairy prod manuf Electricity generation & supply Finance Fishing Gas supply Horticulture & fruit growing Livestock & cropping farming Machinery & equipment manuf Meat & meat prod manuf Mining & quarrying Oil & gas exploration & extraction Other farming Other food manuf Owner-occupied dwellings Petroleum & industrial chem manuf Road trans Svcs to agriculture, hunting & trapping Trans equipment manuf Water & rail trans Water supply Wood prod manuf Communication svcs Furniture & other manuf Printing, publishing & recorded media Real estate Rubber, plastic & other chem manuf Sheet & fabricated metal prod manuf Svcs to finance & investment Wholesale trade
77
Enterprise North Shore FINAL September 2008
78
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