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It's Not Science Fiction, Isaac, it's Socionomics HOME > CULTURAL TRENDS
By Neil Beers Tue, 02 Jun 2009 17:15:00 ET
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In the 1940s, renowned science fiction writer Isaac Asimov began writing a trilogy of novels called the Foundation Series. Asimov “psychohistory,” a mathematical science that statistically predicts the general course of future events for large groups of people.
As it turns out, Asimov’s idea was actually science, minus the fiction. In the 1930s, a decade prior to Asimov's initial Foundation stories discovery that became key to the development of socionomics, a new science of social prediction.
Elliott observed that the stock market indexes traced out a natural growth model: repetitive, self-similar patterns at multiple degrees of pattern is a five-wave net advance followed by a three-wave net decline. This repeating five and three wave pattern unfolds in both up an spans. The chart below shows an idealized Elliott wave pattern with three degrees of trend:
The largest-degree wave, Primary wave 1 (circled), is comprised of five waves of Intermediate degree labeled (1)--(5). each further subdivide into five Minor degree waves marked 1-5. When these impulsive waves peak and complete their 5 w wave corrective pattern will follow before the upward trend resumes. Intermediate degree waves (2) and (4), and Primary three-wave corrections (marked with letters) that pull back from the odd-number peaks.
Charles Collins studied Elliott's discovery, and in turn explained to Elliott that these wave patterns tend to relate to each o regarding size and time. Fibonacci proportions are found throughout nature, including atomic particles, nautilus shells, an
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posited that the markets move in this way because crowd behavior reflects this same natural growth pattern.
Several practitioners kept Elliott’s discoveries alive in the decades following his death, but Robert Prechter reintroduced E investors in the late 1970s and early 1980s. In 1979, he published Elliott Wave Principle – Key to Market Behavior, the de wave analysis. Prechter has since expanded Elliott's initial ideas regarding social mood into the new science of socionomic The foreword to The Wave Principle of Human Social Behavior (1999), Prechter's explication of socionomics, summarizes that:
Social mood trends represent changes in human attitudes. Changes in social mood trends precede compatible chan indicating that the former causes the latter. Thus, there is powerful evidence that the pattern of mood change men is the underlying engine of the trends of social progress and regress... The relationship of the pattern to Fibona the Wave Principle is another manifestation of a type of growth pattern found throughout nature in processes of gro contraction.
As Elliott suggested and Prechter formulated, trends in social mood – widely-shared feelings including those of optimism a hierarchical pattern of similarly-shaped waves that are visible in charts of stock prices, our most sensitive and well-
Socionomics has practical value: it can help you anticipate trends in social mood and the markets, and forecast the subseq Rising markets indicate a positive social-mood trend, which at large degree brings peace, prosperity and social harmony. A mood trend brings falling markets, social discord and eventually, major war. The following chart illustrates this dynamic:
The United States’ most violent conflicts all followed large-degree negative trends in social mood marked by equivalent de
Socionomics provides perspective on a wide array of social expressions in addition to wars and civil unrest, such as: popul and health. The flag bearer of socionomic insight, the Socionomics Institute recently released the inaugural issue of its mo Socionomist, which aims to help you stay ahead of important changes in social mood. The timeliness of its launch is evident in the inaugural issue of The Socionomist:
Our socionomic and Elliott wave analysis suggest that social mood has completed an upward wave of monumental s Grand Supercycle degree -- which is one degree larger than the change in mood that created the Great Depression. for the worse in financial markets, economies, personal fortunes and the quality of life.
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Socionomics warned of an approaching top well before the stock market peak in 2000. Since then, you have seen stark manifestations o news. But the news doesn’t anticipate; it just reports events after the fact. Here's what Asimov had to say about the value of a predictive Radio interview:
I think if we can somehow get across some of the problems that face us now, humanity has a glorious future, and th psychohistory to guide ourselves we might avoid a great many troubles.
The Socionomics Institute is working toward just that for the people most apt to use socionomics effectively: individuals. Y trends by subscribing to the only newsletter dedicated to helping you anticipate them.
Click here to learn more and to subscribe to The Socionomist
The June issue, including part 2 of the study "Epidemics," (you'll have access to part 1 when you subscribe) is tentatively s That's also the last day you can take advantage of a special offer to subscribe and get a free copy of Robert Prechter's new 2
TAGS: SOCIONOMICS, SOCIONOMIST, WARS, SOCIAL MOOD, ISAAC ASIMOV, PSYCHOHISTORY
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