Eia Energy Outlook Feb09

  

 

 

 

    February 2009

 

  Short‐Term Energy Outlook   February 10, 2009 Release

  Highlights    ƒ U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) is expected to decline by 2.7 percent in  2009, triggering decreases in domestic energy consumption for all major fuels.   Economic recovery is projected to begin in 2010, with 2.2 percent year‐over‐ year growth in GDP.  Accompanying the projected economic recovery should  be a mild rebound in energy consumption for all the major fuels in 2010.    ƒ Over the past 6 months, the monthly average price of West Texas Intermediate  (WTI) crude oil fell from $133 per barrel in July to $41 in December and  January. WTI prices are projected to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 in  2010, unchanged from last month’s Outlook.     ƒ The U.S. price for regular gasoline averaged $1.69 per gallon in December 2008,  the lowest monthly average since February 2004 and down nearly $2.40 per  gallon from the monthly peak seen last July.  Gasoline prices have been slowly  increasing over the last 6 weeks as crude oil prices have stabilized and refiner  margins have recovered from their recent near‐historic lows.  Retail gasoline  prices are projected to average $1.95 per gallon in 2009 and $2.19 per gallon in  2010.      ƒ The U.S. economic downturn is also contributing to a decline in natural gas  consumption, particularly in the industrial sector, which has led to lower  natural gas prices.  The Henry Hub natural gas spot price is projected to  decline from an average of $9.13 per thousand cubic feet (Mcf) in 2008 to about  $5 per Mcf in 2009, but then increase in 2010 to an average of almost $6 per Mcf.    Global Petroleum  Overview.  The worsening global economy and a weak oil consumption outlook are  keeping the world oil market well supplied, despite two downward revisions in  production targets by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC)  Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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within the past few months.  Lower global oil demand and rising surplus production  capacity through at least mid‐year 2009 reduce the possibility for a strong and  sustained rebound in oil prices over that period.  OPEC is scheduled to meet in  Vienna on March 15, which could lead to another production cut to mitigate some of  the slack in the world oil market.  However, near‐month oil prices will likely be  driven primarily by the global economy.  Global real gross domestic product (GDP,  weighted according to shares of world oil consumption) is assumed to decline by 0.1  percent in 2009 and rise by 3.0 percent in 2010, versus last month’s assessment of 0.6‐ percent growth in real GDP in 2009 and 3.0‐percent growth in 2010.  Consumption.  World oil consumption is projected to fall by 1.2 million barrels per  day (bbl/d) in 2009, representing an additional decline of 400,000 bbl/d from last  month’s Outlook.  World oil consumption is expected to rebound in 2010, growing by  more than 1.2 million bbl/d, due to an expected recovery in the global economy.  Oil  consumption growth over the next 2 years is concentrated in countries outside of the  Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), particularly  China, the Middle East, and Latin America, offsetting projected declines in OECD oil  consumption (World Oil Consumption).  If the world economy recovers sooner than  EIA now anticipates, oil consumption could be higher than expected, putting upward  pressure on oil prices.  Non‐OPEC Supply.  Non‐OPEC oil supply is expected to grow by 150,000 bbl/d in  2009 and 130,000 bbl/d in 2010.  The expected growth in non‐OPEC supply over the  next 2 years comes in stark contrast to the 330,000‐bbl/d decline seen in 2008, which  was the result of longer‐than‐expected delays in key projects, larger‐than‐expected  decline rates in mature basins, and supply disruptions in the Gulf of Mexico and  Central Asia.  The largest sources of growth over the forecast period are the United  States, Brazil, and Azerbaijan, offset by large declines in production in Mexico, the  North Sea, and Russia.  The expected decline in Russian output in 2009 (‐160,000  bbl/d) is especially noteworthy.  Russian oil production grew by 3 million bbl/d from  2000 through 2007, representing 75 percent of total non‐OPEC oil production growth  over that period.    There are downside risks to the outlook for non‐OPEC supply, as additional project  delays are certainly possible given the financial crisis and the current price  environment.  Sustained lower oil prices bring into doubt the viability of some  high‐cost non‐OPEC projects, especially those utilizing nonconventional technology  or those seeking to exploit frontier oil basins.  The credit crunch associated with the  global economic crisis can also make it difficult to acquire financing for new projects  or even to finance the investment required to prevent accelerated declines at  Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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producing fields.  EIAʹs forecast reflects an attempt to account for some of these  potential delays.  OPEC Supply.  OPEC producers are cutting crude production targets in response to  lower prices and eroding consumption.  Estimated OPEC crude oil production fell by  1 million bbl/d during the fourth quarter of 2008, reaching 30.7 million bbl/d.  OPEC  crude oil production is expected to fall by an additional 1.6 million bbl/d in the first  quarter of 2009 to 29.1 million bbl/d, the lowest level in 5 years, largely resulting from  lower production in Saudi Arabia.  The decline of 2.6 million bbl/d over this period  represents nearly two‐thirds of the 4.2‐million‐bbl/d cut in OPEC’s production target  announced at its December meeting.  For the year, OPEC crude oil production is  expected to average 29.4 million bbl/d, then rise to 30.1 million bbl/d in 2010.  In  addition, EIA expects that OPEC production of non‐crude liquids will rise  substantially next year, growing by 660,000 bbl/d in 2009 and by 870,000 bbl/d in 2010,  due to increasing condensate and natural gas production.  The combination of lower demand for OPEC crude oil, increasing production of non‐ crude liquids, and the capacity expansions expected in several OPEC countries means  that surplus production capacity could increase dramatically over the next 2 years.  OPEC surplus production capacity could average 4.3 million bbl/d in 2009, eventually  exceeding 5 million bbl/d by the end of 2010.  By comparison, OPEC surplus  production capacity ranged from 1 to 2 million bbl/d over the past 5 years (OPEC  Surplus Oil Production Capacity).  The lack of surplus production capacity was a  crucial factor during the run‐up in oil prices through the first half of 2008.  If OPEC  does hold 4 to 5 million bbl/d of surplus production capacity over the next 2 years,  this could act to cushion the world oil market and help mitigate the price effect of  perceived or actual supply disruptions.     Inventories.  Preliminary data indicate that OECD commercial inventories stood at  2.58 billion barrels at the end of 2008, equivalent to 52 days of forward cover (Days of  Supply of OECD Commercial Stocks), above average levels for that time of year.  Measured as days of forward cover, OECD commercial inventories are projected to  remain above average levels through the end of 2010.  High crude inventories in some  markets, along with a growing use of floating storage, are signs that the oil market is  well supplied.  Along with ample OPEC surplus production capacity, high  commercial inventories should help mitigate any strong upward price pressures.  U.S. Petroleum  Consumption.  Total petroleum products consumption in 2008 declined by almost 1.2  million bbl/d, or 5.8 percent, from the 2007 average, the largest annual decline since  Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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1980 (U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth).  The major factors behind the  fall in consumption were a rapid rise in retail prices to record levels during the first  half of 2008 followed by a weakening economy in the second half.  Motor gasoline  consumption in 2008 declined by 320,000 bbl/d, or 3.4 percent.  Despite the cold  weather that gripped much of the Lower‐48 States in December, distillate fuel  consumption in 2008 fell by 5.4 percent from the previous year as a result of  precipitous declines in transportation consumption of diesel fuel.  Major reductions in  airline capacity during the fourth quarter contributed to the 100,000‐bbl/d, or 6.2‐ percent, drop in jet fuel consumption.  Total petroleum products consumption in 2009  is projected to fall by a further 460,000 bbl/d, or 2.4 percent, because of continued  economic weakness.  Consumption of both motor gasoline and distillate fuel are  projected to decline by about 100,000 bbl/d each.  Jet fuel is forecast to fall by a further  60,000 bbl/d.  The expected economic recovery in 2010 is projected to boost total  petroleum products consumption by 220,000 bbl/d, or 1.1 percent.      Production.  In 2008, domestic crude oil production averaged 4.95 million bbl/d, down  by 110,000 bbl/d from 2007 (U.S. Crude Oil Production).  However, in 2009, domestic  output is projected to increase by about 400,000 bbl/d to an average of 5.35 million  bbl/d.  This would be the first increase in production since 1991.  Output is projected  to rise by a further 130,000 bbl/d in 2010.  Contributing to the increases in output are  the Gulf of Mexico Thunder Horse platform, which is coming on stream now, and the  Tahiti platform, expected to come on stream later this year.    Prices.  WTI prices averaged almost $100 per barrel in 2008, with daily spot prices  ranging from almost $150 per barrel in early July to about $30 per barrel towards the  end of the year.  Under current economic and world crude oil supply assumptions,  WTI prices are expected to average $43 per barrel in 2009 and $55 per barrel in 2010  (Crude Oil Prices).  The possibility of a milder recession or faster economic recovery,  lower non‐OPEC production because of the current low oil prices and financial  market constraints, and more aggressive action to lower production by OPEC  countries could lead to a faster and stronger recovery in oil prices.  Regular‐grade gasoline prices are projected to average $1.95 per gallon in 2009 and  $2.19 per gallon in 2010.  Because of lower motor gasoline consumption, refining  margins for gasoline are expected to remain low for much of 2009 but are expected to  increase slightly in 2010 as consumption begins to recover.  On‐highway diesel fuel retail prices, which averaged $3.79 per gallon in 2008, are  projected to average $2.28 per gallon in 2009 and $2.55 in 2010.  The expected  continuation of the decline in diesel fuel consumption in the United States this year as  well as a slowing of the growth in distillate fuel usage outside the United States are  Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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projected to result in a narrowing of refining margins for distillate throughout the  forecast.  Natural Gas     Consumption.  Total natural gas consumption is projected to decline by 1.3 percent in  2009 and then increase by 0.6 percent in 2010 (Total U.S. Natural Gas Consumption  Growth).   The expectation of limited weather‐driven consumption growth in the  residential and commercial sectors in 2009 is outweighed by the implications of  continued economic weakness in the industrial and electric power sectors.   Consumption in the industrial and electric power sectors is expected to decline by 5.1  and 1.0 percent, respectively, in 2009.  Consumption growth in 2010 remains largely  dependent upon the timing and pace of economic recovery.  Based on current  assumptions, 2.2‐percent growth in the electric power sector combined with slight  growth in the residential and industrial sectors are all expected to contribute to 2010  consumption growth.    Production and Imports.  Total U.S. marketed natural gas production is expected to  rise slightly in 2009 and fall by 1.1 percent in 2010.  The dramatic decline in drilling  activity, as total working natural gas rigs have declined by more than 31 percent since  August 2008, is expected to contribute to lower production during the second half of  2009.  Despite the cutback in drilling activity, the current outlook suggests that some  production curtailments may be necessary during the latter part of 2009 in order to  balance the market.  Nevertheless, this year’s marketed production from the Lower‐48  non‐Gulf of Mexico (GOM) is expected to increase by 1.1 percent due to the low  operating cost of wells currently in use and the lagged effect of aggressive drilling  programs during the latter part of 2008.  In contrast, the natural decline in production  from existing fields and long‐term decline in drilling activity are expected to lead to a  6.4‐percent decrease in production in the Federal GOM this year.  In 2010, annual  production is projected to decline relative to 2009 in the Federal GOM and Lower‐48  non‐GOM by 6.3 and 0.6 percent, respectively.      U.S. imports of liquefied natural gas (LNG) are expected to reach about 369 billion  cubic feet (Bcf) in 2009, a slight increase over the volume received in 2008.  Shipments  of LNG to the United States this year will be affected by the timing of supply  additions in Russia, Norway, Qatar, and Yemen and the status of global natural gas  inventories in LNG‐consuming regions.  In 2010, U.S. LNG imports are projected to be  about 463 Bcf.    Inventories. On January 30, 2009, working natural gas in storage was 2,179 Bcf (U.S.  Working Natural Gas in Storage).  Current inventories are now 17 Bcf above the 5‐ Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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year average (2004–2008) and 60 Bcf above the level during the corresponding week  last year.  Storage inventories are expected to finish the 2009 withdrawal season  (March 31, 2009) at about 1.5 trillion cubic feet (Tcf), roughly 100 Bcf above the  previous 5‐year average for that time.  This fall, inventories are expected to approach  the previous high of 3,565 Bcf recorded at the end of October 2007.       Prices.  The Henry Hub spot price averaged $5.40 per Mcf in January, $0.60 per Mcf  below the average December spot price.  For all of 2008, the Henry Hub spot price  averaged $9.13 per Mcf.  Despite colder‐than‐normal weather last month, prices  continued downward in response to the ongoing drop in natural gas demand.   Natural gas prices in 2009 are expected to be largely driven by the extent of the supply  response to the persistence of sluggish consumption in light of the current economic  downturn.  Prices are expected to remain weak as inventories build toward capacity  this fall.  A warmer summer or faster economic recovery than anticipated could push  consumption and prices higher than expected.  Prices are projected to recover in 2010  as economic growth contributes to an increase in demand.  The Henry Hub spot price  is expected to average $5.01 per Mcf in 2009 and $5.93 per Mcf in 2010.    Electricity     Consumption.  Total electricity consumption is projected to decline by 0.8 percent in  2009 (U.S. Total Electricity Consumption), including an expected decline of nearly 5  percent in industrial sector electricity sales.  Total electricity consumption is expected  to grow by 1.3 percent in 2010 as economic recovery boosts sales of electricity to the  residential and commercial sectors.    Prices.  Residential electricity prices, which increased by an estimated 6.5 percent last  year, are projected to rise at lower‐than‐normal annual rates of about 2 percent in 2009  and 2010 (U.S. Residential Electricity Prices).  Industrial electricity prices are expected  to increase by just 1 percent in 2009 after having grown by 10 percent last year.        Coal     Consumption.  Coal consumption in the electric‐power‐sector grew by 1.3 percent  during the first half of 2008, but a significant decline in the second half of 2008 caused  annual electric‐power‐sector coal consumption to fall by 0.5 percent in 2008.  The  economic slowdown in 2009 will lead to a decline in electricity consumption, and this  factor combined with projected increases from other generation sources (nuclear,  petroleum, and wind) will lead to a 1.2‐percent decline in electric‐power‐sector coal  consumption.  An expected increase in electricity consumption of 1.3 percent in 2010  will lead to a 1.8‐percent increase in electric‐power‐sector coal consumption.   Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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Consumption growth in the coke plant sector is estimated to have been flat in 2008 but  is expected to fall by 11 percent in 2009 and by 5.7 percent in 2010 due to the economic  slowdown.  Retail and other industrial sector coal consumption is estimated to have  declined by 2.2 percent in 2008 and is expected to decline by an additional 13.8  percent in 2009.  Retail and other industrial sector coal consumption growth is  projected to be 3.5 percent in 2010 (U.S. Coal Consumption Growth).      Production.  A significant increase in coal exports in 2008 contributed to a 2.1‐percent  increase in coal production.  Production is expected to fall by 4.4 percent in 2009 as  lower total domestic coal consumption is combined with declines in exports and an  increase in imports.  Production is projected to increase by 2.5 percent in 2010 as  domestic consumption and exports increase with an improving economy (U.S.  Annual Coal Production).       Exports.  Strong global demand for coal and supply disruptions in several key coal‐ exporting countries (Australia, South Africa, and China), spurred a 38‐percent  increase in U.S. coal exports in 2008.  Reductions in global coal demand, coupled with  the return to normal supply conditions in other major coal‐producing and exporting  countries, are expected to reduce U.S. coal exports by about 10 million short tons, a  11.7‐percent decrease, in 2009.  The improving global economy will spur global coal  demand in 2010 and this will lead to a projected 12‐percent increase in exports.    Prices.  Despite record increases (some well over 100 percent) in spot prices for  several types of coal, the average delivered coal price to the electric power sector is  estimated to have increased by 16 percent in 2008.  Although the rise in spot prices did  contribute to the increase in the cost of coal delivered to the electric power, the rise in  transportation costs was the primary reason for the cost increase.  Declines in  electricity demand and lower transportation costs should see the delivered coal price  remain flat in 2009.  The delivered coal price to the electric power sector is projected to  increase by 1.3 percent in 2010 to $2.09 per million British thermal units.  

Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook—February 2009

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Table WF01. Selected U.S. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- February 2009 Winter of Forecast Fuel / Region 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 Avg.02-07 07-08 08-09 % Change Natural Gas Northeast Consumption (mcf**) Price ($/mcf) Expenditures ($) Midwest Consumption (mcf) Price ($/mcf) Expenditures ($) South Consumption (mcf) Price ($/mcf) Expenditures ($) West Consumption (mcf) Price ($/mcf) Expenditures ($) U.S. Average Consumption (mcf) Price ($/mcf) Expenditures ($) Households (thousands) Heating Oil Northeast Consumption (gallons) Price ($/gallon) Expenditures ($) Midwest Consumption (gallons) Price ($/gallon) Expenditures ($) South Consumption (gallons) Price ($/gallon) Expenditures ($) West Consumption (gallons) Price ($/gallon) Expenditures ($) U.S. Average Consumption (gallons) Price ($/gallon) Expenditures ($) Households (thousands)

84.3 9.99 842

80.0 11.77 941

79.8 12.64 1,009

73.9 16.40 1,211

74.7 14.69 1,098

78.5 12.99 1,020

75.2 15.14 1,139

81.2 15.14 1,230

8.0 0.0 8.0

92.1 7.61 701

85.5 8.77 750

85.2 10.04 855

82.2 13.45 1,106

84.8 11.06 938

85.9 10.12 870

88.5 11.38 1,008

91.9 11.31 1,040

3.8 -0.6 3.2

60.6 9.03 547

55.6 10.67 594

54.0 12.17 658

53.8 16.46 886

54.8 13.59 745

55.8 12.30 686

53.5 14.27 763

57.0 13.79 785

6.4 -3.4 2.9

44.7 7.55 338

45.7 8.84 404

46.7 10.18 475

46.7 12.96 605

47.2 11.20 528

46.2 10.17 470

49.3 11.30 557

46.0 10.60 487

-6.7 -6.2 -12.5

71.1 8.42 599 54,942

67.1 9.81 659 55,811

66.8 11.04 738 56,167

64.7 14.58 943 56,587

66.0 12.35 815 57,223

67.1 11.18 751 56,146

67.4 12.72 858 57,804

69.6 12.50 870 58,316

3.2 -1.7 1.4 0.9

671.5 1.42 956

636.9 1.46 930

637.0 1.93 1,230

589.6 2.45 1,446

596.0 2.51 1,494

626.2 1.93 1,211

603.1 3.31 1,998

648.1 2.58 1,675

7.5 -22.0 -16.2

531.6 1.35 718

488.9 1.34 654

486.0 1.84 893

466.9 2.37 1,108

483.7 2.39 1,158

491.4 1.84 906

508.8 3.32 1,691

530.1 2.28 1,211

4.2 -31.3 -28.4

418.8 1.41 590

394.1 1.45 572

378.0 1.94 734

372.3 2.46 915

363.2 2.38 863

385.3 1.91 735

356.5 3.34 1,190

396.7 2.51 995

11.3 -24.8 -16.3

311.6 1.39 432

325.0 1.46 473

331.6 1.99 659

328.0 2.49 818

327.2 2.57 842

324.7 1.99 645

348.2 3.36 1,170

310.9 2.43 757

-10.7 -27.6 -35.3

644.9 1.41 912 9,491

612.5 1.45 886 9,336

610.2 1.93 1,176 9,064

574.9 2.45 1,409 8,741

580.9 2.49 1,445 8,542

604.7 1.93 1,166 9,035

589.4 3.31 1,953 8,356

628.0 2.56 1,606 8,116

6.6 -22.8 -17.8 -2.9

Table WF01. Selected U.S. Average Consumer Prices* and Expenditures for Heating Fuels During the Winter Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook -- February 2009 Winter of Forecast Fuel / Region 02-03 03-04 04-05 05-06 06-07 Avg.02-07 07-08 08-09 % Change Propane Northeast Consumption (gallons) 915.8 871.2 870.0 808.3 816.7 856.4 823.8 883.6 7.3 Price ($/gallon) 1.55 1.65 1.88 2.20 2.29 1.90 2.78 2.57 -7.6 Expenditures ($) 1,416 1,435 1,633 1,775 1,872 1,626 2,287 2,267 -0.9 Midwest Consumption (gallons) 860.8 800.5 793.2 766.9 792.7 802.8 833.3 860.1 3.2 Price ($/gallon) 1.07 1.20 1.42 1.67 1.74 1.41 2.12 1.98 -6.6 Expenditures ($) 922 960 1,130 1,278 1,382 1,135 1,770 1,705 -3.6 South Consumption (gallons) 577.0 532.5 515.1 514.2 519.7 531.7 508.3 544.3 7.1 Price ($/gallon) 1.45 1.57 1.79 2.11 2.16 1.81 2.66 2.40 -9.8 Expenditures ($) 838 838 921 1,087 1,123 961 1,350 1,304 -3.4 West Consumption (gallons) 559.7 567.5 581.6 581.7 588.5 575.8 615.2 573.1 -6.8 Price ($/gallon) 1.38 1.53 1.78 2.09 2.17 1.80 2.64 2.31 -12.7 Expenditures ($) 774 871 1,037 1,214 1,275 1,034 1,627 1,323 -18.6 U.S. Average Consumption (gallons) 713.3 672.5 668.3 655.4 669.0 675.7 685.3 710.5 3.7 Price ($/gallon) 1.29 1.42 1.65 1.95 2.01 1.66 2.45 2.23 -9.0 Expenditures ($) 918 953 1,103 1,277 1,347 1,120 1,681 1,586 -5.6 Households (thousands) 6,848 6,818 6,782 6,565 6,539 6,710 6,539 6,465 -1.1 Electricity Northeast Consumption (kwh***) Price ($/kwh) Expenditures ($) Midwest Consumption (kwh) Price ($/kwh) Expenditures ($) South Consumption (kwh) Price ($/kwh) Expenditures ($) West Consumption (kwh) Price ($/kwh) Expenditures ($) U.S. Average Consumption (kwh) Price ($/kwh) Expenditures ($) Households (thousands)

10,417 0.109 1,136

10,013 0.114 1,140

10,019 0.117 1,173

9,497 0.133 1,260

9,570 0.139 1,329

9,903 0.122 1,208

9,614 0.144 1,389

10,166 0.152 1,542

5.7 5.0 11.0

11,469 0.074 846

10,922 0.075 823

10,857 0.077 834

10,635 0.081 857

10,883 0.085 926

10,953 0.078 857

11,272 0.089 1,005

11,516 0.096 1,100

2.2 7.1 9.4

8,763 0.074 646

8,402 0.078 652

8,266 0.082 674

8,255 0.092 762

8,299 0.096 797

8,397 0.084 706

8,206 0.098 808

8,493 0.105 895

3.5 7.0 10.8

6,968 0.091 635

7,091 0.091 642

7,188 0.092 661

7,185 0.097 695

7,199 0.102 735

7,126 0.095 674

7,423 0.104 776

7,068 0.108 767

-4.8 3.8 -1.1

8,592 0.082 702 34,153

8,307 0.085 703 34,686

8,246 0.088 722 35,745

8,156 0.096 787 36,741

8,215 0.101 828 37,349

8,303 0.090 749 35,735

8,262 0.104 861 38,024

8,422 0.111 932 38,792

1.9 6.2 8.3 2.0

All households (thousands) 105,434 106,650 107,758 108,634 109,654 107,626 110,723 111,689 Average Expenditures ($) 681 712 793 948 900 807 990 987 Note: Winter covers the period October 1 through March 31. Fuel consumption per household is based only on households that use that fuel as the primary space-heating fuel. Included in fuel consumption is consumption for water heating, appliances, and lighting (electricity). * Prices include taxes ** thousand cubic feet *** kilowatthour

0.9 -0.4

Short-Term Energy Outlook

Chart Gallery for February 2009

Crude Oil Prices 170 160 150 140 130 120 110 100 Dollars 90 per 80 barrel 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 Jan 2005

Forecast

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Average Refiner Acquisition Cost (RAC)

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Gasoline and Crude Oil Prices 480 440 400

Forecast

Retail Regular Gasoline Wholesale Gasoline Crude Oil

360 320 Cents per gallon

280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Retail price includes State and Federal taxes

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

U.S. Distillate Fuel Prices 520

Forecast

480

Retail Diesel Retail Heating Oil Crude Oil

440 400 360 Cents per gallon

320 280 240 200 160 120 80 40 0 Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Retail prices include State and Federal taxes

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Natural Gas Prices Forecast

20

Residential Price Henry Hub Spot Price Composite Wellhead Price

15 Dollars per thousand 10 cubic feet

5

0 Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

World Oil Consumption 95

Forecast

90

Total Consumption

Million 85 barrels 80 per day 75

4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 2.5

Annual Growth

70

2.0

65

1.5

60

1.0

55 45

0.5 Million 0.0 barrels -0.5 per day

40

-1.0

50

35

-1.5 2002

2003

2004 China

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

2005

2006

United States

2007

2008

2009

Other Countries

2010

World Oil Consumption Growth (Change from Previous Year) 1.0 Forecast

0.5 0.0 Million barrels -0.5 per day -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 2008 OECD*

2009

Non-OECD Asia

2010

FSU** and Eastern Europe

Other

* Countries belonging to Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development ** Former Soviet Union

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

World Oil Production Growth (Change from Previous Year)

2.0

Forecast

1.5 1.0 0.5 Million barrels 0.0 per day -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -2.0 2008

2009

OPEC Countries North America North Sea

2010

Russia and Caspian Sea Latin America Other Non-OPEC

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Non-OPEC Oil Production Growth (Change from Previous Year)

0.8 0.6

2010 2009 2008

0.4 0.2 Million 0.0 barrels per day -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Mexico

Norway

United Kingdom

Egypt

Russia

Colombia

Other North Sea

Gabon

Malaysia

India

Australia

Syria

Oman

China

Vietnam

Sudan

Canada

Kazakhstan

Brazil

Azerbaijan

United States

-1.0

World Consumption and Non-OPEC Production (Change from Previous Year)

4

Forecast

World Oil Consumption (left axis)

3

100 80

Non-OPEC Production (left axis) WTI Crude Oil Price (right axis)

60

2 40 1

20

Million barrels 0 per day -1

0 -20

Dollars per barrel

-40 -2 -60 -3

-80

-4

-100 2006-Q1

2007-Q1

2008-Q1

2009-Q1

2010-Q1

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

OPEC Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity 7 Forecast

6 5 Million 4 barrels per day 3 2 1 0 1998

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

Note: Shaded area represents 1998-2008 average (2.8 million barrels per day)

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Days of Supply of OECD Commercial Oil Stocks 65 Forecast

60

55 Days of supply 50

45

400 Jan 2004

Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

NOTE: Colored band represents the 5-year minimum/maximum range for each month.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

2010

U.S. Crude Oil Production 6

Forecast

30%

5 Million barrels per day

4

25%

Lower 48 Production

3

20%

2

15%

Alaska Production 8.0%

1

10% 2.5%

0

5%

Change from Prior -5% Year

U.S. Annual Growth

-1

0% -1.0% -0.3% -1.0% -1.1%

-2

35%

-3.1%

-1.5% -0.7% -2.2% -4.6% -4.4%

-5.9%

-10%

-3 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Crude Oil Stocks 400 Forecast

380 360 340 320 Million 300 barrels 280 260 240 220 200 0 Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

NOTE: Colored band represents "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Petroleum Products Consumption Growth (Change from Previous Year) 400 Forecast

200

-5.8%

-2.4%

2008

2009

1.1%

0 -200 Thousand -400 barrels per day -600 -800 -1000 -1200 -1400

Total

Motor Gasoline

Jet Fuel

2010 Distillate Fuel

Note: Percent change labels refer to total petroleum products growth

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Other

U.S. Gasoline and Distillate Inventories 260 Forecast

Total Motor Gasoline Inventory

240 220 200 180 Million 160 barrels 140

Total Distillate Fuel Inventory

120 100 80 600 Jan 2005

Jan 2006

Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

NOTE: Colored bands represent "normal" range published in EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report, Appendix A.

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Total Natural Gas Consumption 70

20% Forecast

68

Consumption

Billion 66 cubic feet 64 per day 62

16% 14% 12%

60

10%

58

Annual Growth

8%

6.4%

6%

56 3.9%

54 52

3.5%

0.7%

0.6%

0.5%

0.2%

50 48 46

18%

-4.4%

44

-1.3%

-1.4% -1.5%

-2.1%

4% Change 2% from Prior 0% Year -2% -4%

-3.2%

-6%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Working Natural Gas in Storage (Percent Difference from Previous 5-Year Average) 40% Forecast

30%

20%

10%

0%

-10% Jan 2007

Jan 2008

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

Jan 2009

Jan 2010

U.S. Coal Consumption Growth (Percent Change from Previous Year) 5%

Forecast

0%

-5%

-10%

-15% 2008

2009

Total Demand Retail and General Industry

2010

Electric Power Sector Coke Plants

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Annual Coal Production 1400

Forecast

1200 1000 Million short tons

800 600 400 200 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Total U.S. Appalachian Region

Western Region Interior Region

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Total Electricity Consumption 13

Forecast

Billion 12 kilowatt 11 hours 10 per day 9

Consumption

8% 7% 6%

7

5%

Annual Growth 3.7%

4% 2.8%

5 4

2.8%

3%

2.1%

1.7%

2.0% 0.8%

3

1.3%

1.2% 0.2%

2 1

10% 9%

8 6

11%

-0.7%

-0.4%

-0.8%

0

2% Change from 1% Prior 0% Year -1% -2%

1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Residential Electricity Price 15 14 Cents 13 per 12 kilowatt 11 hour 10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0

Forecast

36%

Monthly Average Electricity Price 30% 24% 18% Annual Growth

6.5%

4.2%

Change from prior 0% year 6%

3.2% 2.6%

2.3% 2.0%

2.2%

0.9% -2.0% -1.2%

12%

10.1% 5.6%

-1.6%

-6% 1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Annual Energy Expenditures As Percent of Gross Domestic Product 14%

Forecast

12% 10% 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% 1983

1986

1989

1992

1995

1998

2001

2004

2007

2010

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Summer Cooling Degree-Days (Population-weighted) 450 400 350 300 250

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Normal

200 150 100 50 0 APR

MAY

JUN

JUL

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

AUG

SEP

U.S. Winter Heating Degree-Days (Population-weighted)

1000 900 800 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 Normal

700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0

OCT

NOV

DEC

JAN

FEB

MAR

Source: National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, National Weather Service http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/cdus/degree_days/

Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

U.S. Census Regions and Census Divisions AK

Pacific

WEST

MIDWEST

NORTHEAST

WA ND

MT OR

SD

Pacific WY

ID NV

Mountain CO

CA

VT WI

West North Central

NE

ME

MN

MI

North Central

MO

KS

Middle Atlantic PA

OH

DE WV

NM

Pacific HI

VA

KY

East TN

OK TX

West South Central

AR

South Central

LA

MS

MD

NC

South

Atlantic SC GA

LEGEND REGION Division

AL

State FL

SOUTH Short-Term Energy Outlook, February 2009

MA RI CT NJ

IN IL

UT

AZ

NH

NY England

East IA

New

Table 1. U.S. Energy Markets Summary Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

Energy Supply Crude Oil Production (a) (million barrels per day) ..............................

5.12

5.15

4.66

4.88

5.29

5.39

5.31

5.39

5.42

5.50

5.46

5.53

4.95

5.35

5.48

Dry Natural Gas Production (billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

55.83

56.36

55.52

57.00

58.14

57.72

55.69

54.05

55.14

55.97

55.73

56.21

56.18

56.39

55.76

Coal Production (million short tons) .......................................

289

284

299

298

273

272

279

294

280

279

286

302

1,170

1,118

1,147

Petroleum (million barrels per day) ..............................

19.88

19.68

18.84

19.54

19.19

18.82

18.86

19.22

19.18

19.03

19.15

19.58

19.48

19.02

19.24

Natural Gas (billion cubic feet per day) ...........................

82.18

55.12

52.99

64.01

80.91

54.11

53.69

62.38

80.12

54.30

54.84

63.35

63.55

62.70

63.08

Coal (b) (million short tons) .......................................

283

268

299

272

272

259

297

272

276

264

301

278

1,123

1,100

1,120

Electricity (billion kilowatt hours per day) ....................

10.60

10.25

11.72

9.92

10.37

10.05

11.76

9.98

10.47

10.19

11.92

10.12

10.62

10.54

10.68

Renewables (c) (quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

1.74

1.92

1.69

1.68

1.83

1.95

1.84

1.77

1.95

2.07

1.91

1.84

7.03

7.38

7.77

Total Energy Consumption (d) (quadrillion Btu) ...........................................

26.87

24.13

24.29

25.05

26.07

23.44

24.37

24.61

26.16

23.75

24.75

25.03

100.34

98.49

99.70

Crude Oil (e) (dollars per barrel) .......................................

91.15

117.30

114.89

55.60

40.41

41.67

41.92

43.26

46.00

51.01

54.98

58.01

94.79

41.82

52.59

Natural Gas Wellhead (dollars per thousand cubic feet) .................

7.62

9.86

8.81

6.06

4.80

4.37

4.02

4.47

5.10

4.93

4.86

5.38

8.08

4.42

5.07

Coal (dollars per million Btu) ...............................

1.91

2.04

2.15

2.13

2.05

2.08

2.07

2.05

2.06

2.10

2.11

2.07

2.06

2.06

2.09

Real Gross Domestic Product (billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) ......... Percent change from prior year ...................

11,646 2.5

11,727 2.1

11,712 0.7

11,543 -0.7

11,372 -2.4

11,309 -3.6

11,316 -3.4

11,354 -1.6

11,413 0.4

11,527 1.9

11,657 3.0

11,763 3.6

11,657 1.2

11,338 -2.7

11,590 2.2

GDP Implicit Price Deflator (Index, 2000=100) ........................................ Percent change from prior year ...................

121.6 2.3

122.0 2.0

123.1 2.6

123.4 2.2

123.9 1.9

123.9 1.6

124.1 0.8

124.7 1.0

125.3 1.1

125.4 1.2

125.7 1.3

126.5 1.4

122.5 2.3

124.2 1.3

125.7 1.3

Real Disposable Personal Income (billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) ......... Percent change from prior year ...................

8,668 0.6

8,891 3.3

8,689 0.2

8,783 1.2

8,967 3.5

9,006 1.3

9,022 3.8

9,016 2.6

8,989 0.2

9,050 0.5

9,105 0.9

9,109 1.0

8,758 1.3

9,003 2.8

9,063 0.7

114.8 2.0

113.7 -0.2

111.1 -3.5

106.5 -7.4

102.9 -10.3

100.1 -11.9

99.4 -10.5

99.3 -6.8

99.9 -2.9

101.1 1.0

102.7 3.4

104.1 4.8

111.5 -2.3

100.4 -9.9

102.0 1.5

2,251 35

528 385

70 789

1,647 69

2,247 31

537 345

98 774

1,623 77

2,200 36

534 359

98 789

1,620 83

4,496 1,277

4,505 1,227

4,452 1,267

Energy Consumption

Nominal Energy Prices

Macroeconomic

Manufacturing Production Index (Index, 2002=100) ........................................ Percent change from prior year ................... Weather U.S. Heating Degree-Days .......................... U.S. Cooling Degree-Days .......................... - = no data available (a) Includes lease condensate. (b) Total consumption includes Independent Power Producer (IPP) consumption. (c) Renewable energy includes minor components of non-marketed renewable energy that is neither bought nor sold, either directly or indirectly, as inputs to marketed energy. EIA does not estimate or project end-use consumption of non-marketed renewable energy. (d) The conversion from physical units to Btu is calculated using a subset of conversion factors used in the calculations of gross energy consumption in EIA’s Monthly Energy Review (MER). Consequently, the historical data may not precisely match those published in the MER or the Annual Energy Review (AER). (e) Refers to the refiner average acquisition cost (RAC) of crude oil. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report, DOE/EIA-0208; Petroleum Marketing Monthly, DOE/EIA-0380; Natural Gas Monthly, DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly, DOE/EIA-0226; Quarterly Coal Report, DOE/EIA-0121; and International Petroleum Monthly, DOE/EIA-0520. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model. Macroeconomic projections are based on Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy. Weather projections from National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

Table 2. U.S. Energy Nominal Prices Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010 2008

Year 2009

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

97.94 89.73 91.15

123.95 116.03 117.30

118.05 112.85 114.89

58.35 52.60 55.60

41.89 39.40 40.41

42.67 40.67 41.67

43.00 40.92 41.92

45.00 42.24 43.26

48.00 45.01 46.00

53.00 50.00 51.01

57.00 53.98 54.98

60.00 56.99 58.01

99.57 92.57 94.79

43.14 40.80 41.82

54.50 51.57 52.59

249 283 269

315 365 347

315 347 337

155 201 187

133 154 154

137 161 156

135 156 151

130 158 154

141 166 158

159 188 174

168 191 183

165 195 191

259 303 275

134 157 154

158 186 173

284 187 145

364 218 166

357 262 172

203 134 85

156 106 79

160 100 68

156 97 61

158 103 66

168 105 72

186 107 75

190 114 76

196 127 87

304 200 139

158 101 69

185 113 78

311 316 353 340 250

376 381 439 401 265

385 391 434 409 270

230 236 297 280 237

189 194 228 238 214

199 204 231 223 180

198 203 226 212 156

192 197 227 227 166

199 204 239 235 175

219 224 257 236 173

230 235 261 244 164

227 232 265 264 184

325 331 379 336 250

195 200 228 230 186

219 224 255 245 176

Average Wellhead .............................................. 7.62 Henry Hub Spot .................................................. 8.92 End-Use Prices Industrial Sector ................................................ 8.91 Commercial Sector ........................................... 11.34 Residential Sector ............................................ 12.46 Electricity Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu)

9.86 11.73

8.81 9.29

6.06 6.60

4.80 5.13

4.37 4.92

4.02 4.73

4.47 5.27

5.10 6.03

4.93 5.81

4.86 5.66

5.38 6.23

8.08 9.13

4.42 5.01

5.07 5.93

11.12 13.10 15.57

10.76 14.16 19.29

7.82 11.22 13.08

6.55 10.18 11.61

5.49 9.09 11.63

5.23 8.89 13.68

6.08 9.36 11.17

6.77 9.79 10.87

6.19 9.45 11.65

6.07 9.58 14.31

6.84 10.12 11.89

9.60 11.90 13.62

5.87 9.62 11.64

6.49 9.79 11.53

Crude Oil (dollars per barrel) West Texas Intermediate Spot Average .............. Imported Average ................................................. Refiner Average Acquisition Cost ........................ Petroleum Products (cents per gallon) Refiner Prices for Resale Gasoline ............................................................ Diesel Fuel ........................................................ Heating Oil ........................................................ Refiner Prices to End Users Jet Fuel ............................................................. No. 6 Residual Fuel Oil (a) ............................... Propane to Petrochemical Sector ..................... Retail Prices Including Taxes Gasoline Regular Grade (b) .............................. Gasoline All Grades (b) .................................... On-highway Diesel Fuel .................................... Heating Oil ........................................................ Propane ............................................................ Natural Gas (dollars per thousand cubic feetf)

Coal .................................................................. Natural Gas ...................................................... Residual Fuel Oil (c) ......................................... Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................... End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour)

1.91 8.67 13.34 18.89

2.04 11.12 15.07 24.18

2.15 9.78 17.47 25.11

2.13 6.70 10.43 15.00

2.05 5.70 6.92 10.88

2.08 5.02 6.49 11.00

2.07 4.71 6.29 10.60

2.05 5.12 6.58 10.82

2.06 5.95 6.75 11.11

2.10 5.71 6.88 12.23

2.11 5.60 7.28 12.80

2.07 6.12 8.03 13.48

2.06 9.18 14.32 20.79

2.06 5.08 6.56 10.82

2.09 5.81 7.24 12.41

Industrial Sector ................................................ Commercial Sector ........................................... Residential Sector ............................................

6.4 9.6 10.3

7.0 10.3 11.4

7.6 11.0 12.0

7.0 10.3 11.4

6.7 10.0 10.8

7.0 10.5 11.8

7.5 11.0 12.2

7.1 10.4 11.6

6.8 10.2 11.0

7.2 10.7 12.0

7.7 11.3 12.4

7.2 10.6 11.8

7.0 10.3 11.3

7.1 10.5 11.6

7.2 10.7 11.8

- = no data available (a) Average for all sulfur contents. (b) Average self-service cash price. (c) Includes fuel oils No. 4, No. 5, No. 6, and topped crude. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Prices exclude taxes unless otherwise noted Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208; Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Monthly Energy Review , DOE/EIA-0035. Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http://Intelligencepress.com); WTI crude oil price from Reuter's News Service (http://www.reuters.com). Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3a. International Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010

Year 2009

2010

20.94 8.51 3.35 3.19 4.30 1.58 64.55 35.75 31.27 4.48 12.52 3.98 12.31 85.49

20.84 8.96 3.49 2.89 3.90 1.59 63.59 34.54 29.41 5.14 12.50 4.00 12.55 84.43

20.56 9.12 3.56 2.70 3.66 1.52 65.59 36.14 30.13 6.00 12.69 4.01 12.75 86.15

50.00

49.74

49.89

50.02

45.48 19.15 0.26 2.27 14.41 4.31 5.09 39.90 4.29 0.78 8.58 9.20 17.06 85.39

47.24 19.58 0.27 2.30 14.83 4.75 5.51 40.34 4.39 0.81 8.76 9.43 16.94 87.58

47.69 19.48 0.27 2.36 15.26 4.85 5.47 38.18 4.34 0.80 7.98 9.24 15.82 85.87

46.08 19.02 0.26 2.26 14.59 4.65 5.29 38.63 4.31 0.80 8.23 9.17 16.13 84.70

46.09 19.24 0.26 2.25 14.50 4.56 5.29 39.82 4.33 0.81 8.54 9.30 16.83 85.92

-0.47 -0.50 -0.77 -1.74

-0.01 -0.35 -0.53 -0.89

0.32 0.33 0.48 1.13

-0.14 0.10 0.43 0.38

-0.09 0.16 0.21 0.27

0.02 -0.10 -0.16 -0.24

1,046 2,586

1,047 2,619

1,018 2,559

1,017 2,580

1,026 2,532

1,018 2,559

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Supply (million barrels per day) (a) OECD ................................................ U.S. (50 States) ............................. Canada .......................................... Mexico ............................................ North Sea (b) ................................. Other OECD ................................... Non-OECD ........................................ OPEC ............................................. Crude Oil Portion ........................ Other Liquids ............................... Former Soviet Union ...................... China .............................................. Other Non-OECD ........................... Total World Production .....................

21.30 8.62 3.38 3.31 4.47 1.52 64.04 35.66 31.25 4.41 12.59 3.94 11.86 85.34

21.08 8.75 3.23 3.20 4.33 1.57 64.53 35.83 31.40 4.43 12.60 4.00 12.10 85.61

20.38 8.18 3.40 3.15 4.07 1.58 65.33 36.26 31.74 4.52 12.42 3.97 12.67 85.71

21.00 8.48 3.41 3.12 4.33 1.66 64.28 35.24 30.68 4.55 12.46 3.99 12.59 85.28

21.03 8.91 3.46 2.95 4.08 1.64 62.44 33.89 29.12 4.77 12.45 3.93 12.17 83.47

21.01 9.03 3.49 2.97 3.92 1.60 63.49 34.36 29.29 5.07 12.54 4.02 12.57 84.50

20.57 8.92 3.49 2.86 3.72 1.58 64.12 34.77 29.53 5.23 12.47 4.00 12.88 84.68

20.76 8.98 3.53 2.81 3.89 1.55 64.28 35.14 29.67 5.47 12.53 4.03 12.58 85.05

20.77 8.99 3.58 2.76 3.90 1.54 64.74 35.73 29.99 5.75 12.68 4.02 12.30 85.51

20.70 9.14 3.57 2.77 3.70 1.53 65.67 36.09 30.11 5.99 12.76 4.05 12.78 86.38

20.28 9.13 3.53 2.66 3.45 1.52 65.99 36.26 30.19 6.07 12.63 3.99 13.11 86.27

20.50 9.23 3.55 2.62 3.61 1.49 65.95 36.45 30.24 6.20 12.67 4.00 12.82 86.45

Non-OPEC Production .....................

49.69

49.78

49.45

50.04

49.58

50.14

49.92

49.91

49.77

50.29

50.01

Consumption (million barrels per day) (c) OECD ................................................ 48.68 U.S. (50 States) ............................. 19.88 U.S. Territories ............................... 0.27 Canada .......................................... 2.37 Europe ............................................ 15.20 Japan ............................................. 5.41 Other OECD ................................... 5.55 Non-OECD ........................................ 37.72 Former Soviet Union ...................... 4.34 Europe ............................................ 0.83 China .............................................. 7.74 Other Asia ...................................... 9.22 Other Non-OECD ........................... 15.58 Total World Consumption ................. 86.39

47.09 19.68 0.28 2.25 14.89 4.59 5.39 38.14 4.30 0.79 7.99 9.26 15.80 85.24

46.49 18.84 0.29 2.36 15.39 4.30 5.31 38.25 4.31 0.76 8.05 9.14 16.00 84.74

48.51 19.54 0.25 2.45 15.55 5.10 5.63 38.61 4.40 0.80 8.16 9.35 15.90 87.12

46.97 19.19 0.27 2.25 14.77 5.10 5.40 38.09 4.35 0.83 7.97 9.13 15.80 85.06

44.86 18.82 0.26 2.20 14.17 4.27 5.14 38.57 4.26 0.79 8.22 9.18 16.13 83.44

45.40 18.86 0.26 2.29 14.49 4.40 5.09 38.70 4.26 0.76 8.26 9.07 16.34 84.09

47.09 19.22 0.27 2.32 14.93 4.84 5.51 39.13 4.37 0.80 8.44 9.29 16.23 86.21

46.77 19.18 0.26 2.23 14.67 5.01 5.41 39.27 4.38 0.85 8.28 9.26 16.50 86.04

44.87 19.03 0.26 2.18 14.08 4.18 5.14 39.77 4.28 0.81 8.54 9.31 16.83 84.64

Inventory Net Withdrawals (million barrels per day) U.S. (50 States) ................................ 0.14 -0.36 Other OECD ...................................... -0.23 0.03 Other Stock Draws and Balance ...... 1.14 -0.04 Total Stock Draw ............................ 1.05 -0.38

-0.22 -0.11 -0.65 -0.97

-0.14 0.71 1.27 1.84

-0.13 0.72 0.99 1.58

-0.51 -0.22 -0.33 -1.06

-0.04 -0.23 -0.33 -0.59

0.29 0.37 0.51 1.17

0.25 0.12 0.17 0.53

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels) U.S. Commercial Inventory .............. 953 OECD Commercial Inventory ........... 2,567

1,003 2,634

1,017 2,580

1,016 2,514

1,055 2,573

1,056 2,595

1,026 2,532

1,003 2,498

980 2,599

2008

- = no data available OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. Former Soviet Union = Armenia, Azerbaijan, Belarus, Estonia, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Latvia, Lithuania, Moldova, Russia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Ukraine and Uzbekistan. (a) Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol. (b) Includes offshore supply from Denmark, Germany, the Netherlands, Norway, and the United Kingdom. (c) Consumption of petroleum by the OECD countries is synonymous with "petroleum product supplied," defined in the glossary of the EIA Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109. Consumption of petroleum by the non-OECD countries is "apparent consumption," which includes internal consumption, refinery fuel and loss, and bunkering. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3b. Non-OPEC Petroleum Supply (million barrels per day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010

Year 2009

2010

15.06 3.35 3.19 8.51

15.35 3.49 2.89 8.96

15.38 3.56 2.70 9.12

4.73 0.75 2.97 0.54 0.47

4.25 0.77 2.42 0.60 0.46

4.45 0.78 2.60 0.59 0.48

4.63 0.76 2.85 0.55 0.47

4.05 2.11 1.03 0.31

4.22 2.17 1.14 0.30

4.97 2.46 1.50 0.33

4.54 2.27 1.29 0.34

4.27 2.20 1.15 0.31

12.98 1.09 1.64 9.62 0.20 0.63

12.85 1.11 1.62 9.50 0.20 0.62

12.89 1.13 1.63 9.51 0.21 0.62

12.75 0.88 1.43 9.79 0.19 0.66

12.73 0.95 1.51 9.63 0.20 0.64

12.90 1.10 1.63 9.56 0.20 0.62

1.57 0.77 0.46 0.29

1.56 0.77 0.46 0.28

1.53 0.76 0.45 0.27

1.54 0.76 0.45 0.28

1.56 0.76 0.44 0.30

1.55 0.75 0.46 0.29

1.55 0.76 0.46 0.28

8.64 0.60 4.03 0.88 1.04 0.69 0.40

8.67 0.60 4.02 0.89 1.04 0.70 0.42

8.69 0.60 4.05 0.89 1.04 0.69 0.43

8.60 0.60 3.99 0.89 1.03 0.68 0.43

8.61 0.56 4.00 0.91 1.03 0.67 0.44

8.55 0.58 3.98 0.88 1.05 0.72 0.32

8.65 0.63 4.00 0.90 1.05 0.70 0.39

8.64 0.59 4.01 0.89 1.04 0.68 0.43

2.60 0.56 0.35 0.24 0.60

2.61 0.54 0.35 0.23 0.59

2.68 0.54 0.36 0.23 0.60

2.67 0.53 0.36 0.23 0.60

2.62 0.52 0.35 0.22 0.59

2.61 0.51 0.35 0.22 0.59

2.60 0.63 0.36 0.25 0.52

2.62 0.56 0.35 0.24 0.58

2.65 0.53 0.35 0.22 0.60

50.14

49.92

49.91

49.77

50.29

50.01

50.00

49.74

49.89

50.02

5.07 55.21

5.23 55.15

5.47 55.38

5.75 55.52

5.99 56.27

6.07 56.09

6.20 56.21

4.48 54.22

5.14 55.03

6.00 56.02

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

North America ................................... Canada ................................................ Mexico .................................................. United States .......................................

15.31 3.38 3.31 8.62

15.18 3.23 3.20 8.75

14.73 3.40 3.15 8.18

15.01 3.41 3.12 8.48

15.31 3.46 2.95 8.91

15.48 3.49 2.97 9.03

15.27 3.49 2.86 8.92

15.32 3.53 2.81 8.98

15.33 3.58 2.76 8.99

15.48 3.57 2.77 9.14

15.31 3.53 2.66 9.13

15.40 3.55 2.62 9.23

Central and South America ............ Argentina ............................................. Brazil .................................................... Colombia .............................................. Other Central and S. America .............

3.77 0.78 1.98 0.57 0.44

4.10 0.73 2.34 0.59 0.44

4.61 0.78 2.74 0.61 0.47

4.51 0.78 2.61 0.63 0.49

4.00 0.79 2.12 0.61 0.48

4.43 0.79 2.57 0.59 0.48

4.84 0.78 3.01 0.58 0.48

4.52 0.77 2.71 0.57 0.48

4.10 0.77 2.29 0.56 0.47

4.60 0.77 2.81 0.55 0.47

5.06 0.75 3.29 0.54 0.47

Europe ............................................... Norway ................................................. United Kingdom (offshore) .................. Other North Sea ..................................

5.14 2.51 1.61 0.35

5.00 2.42 1.58 0.33

4.74 2.39 1.36 0.33

5.01 2.55 1.46 0.33

4.74 2.35 1.39 0.34

4.56 2.26 1.32 0.35

4.35 2.21 1.19 0.33

4.52 2.28 1.28 0.33

4.52 2.32 1.25 0.33

4.31 2.21 1.17 0.32

FSU and Eastern Europe ................. Azerbaijan ............................................ Kazakhstan .......................................... Russia .................................................. Turkmenistan ....................................... Other FSU/Eastern Europe .................

12.83 0.91 1.47 9.78 0.19 0.66

12.83 0.98 1.44 9.75 0.19 0.66

12.66 0.85 1.33 9.82 0.19 0.66

12.70 0.77 1.47 9.81 0.19 0.66

12.69 0.88 1.47 9.69 0.19 0.65

12.78 0.93 1.51 9.69 0.20 0.65

12.70 0.97 1.52 9.57 0.20 0.64

12.76 1.01 1.55 9.56 0.20 0.64

12.91 1.06 1.61 9.60 0.20 0.63

Middle East ........................................ Oman ................................................... Syria ..................................................... Yemen .................................................

1.56 0.75 0.45 0.32

1.55 0.75 0.45 0.30

1.56 0.77 0.44 0.29

1.55 0.77 0.44 0.28

1.58 0.78 0.45 0.30

1.55 0.75 0.46 0.29

1.53 0.74 0.45 0.28

1.54 0.74 0.45 0.29

Asia and Oceania ............................ Australia ............................................... China ................................................... India ..................................................... Indonesia ............................................. Malaysia ............................................... Vietnam ................................................

8.50 0.52 3.94 0.89 1.04 0.74 0.34

8.54 0.57 4.00 0.88 1.04 0.71 0.31

8.53 0.59 3.97 0.87 1.06 0.73 0.29

8.63 0.65 3.99 0.89 1.06 0.70 0.32

8.64 0.65 3.93 0.90 1.05 0.71 0.38

8.71 0.64 4.02 0.91 1.05 0.70 0.39

8.64 0.64 4.00 0.89 1.04 0.70 0.39

Africa .................................................. Egypt .................................................... Equatorial Guinea ................................ Gabon .................................................. Sudan ..................................................

2.58 0.63 0.36 0.24 0.52

2.58 0.62 0.36 0.25 0.52

2.63 0.65 0.36 0.25 0.52

2.62 0.62 0.35 0.25 0.53

2.62 0.59 0.35 0.25 0.55

2.64 0.57 0.36 0.24 0.58

Total non-OPEC liquids ....................

49.69

49.78

49.45

50.04

49.58

OPEC non-crude liquids ................. Non-OPEC + OPEC non-crude .......

4.41 54.10

4.43 54.21

4.52 53.97

4.55 54.60

4.77 54.35

2008

- = no data available FSU = Former Soviet Union OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Supply includes production of crude oil (including lease condensates), natural gas plant liquids, other liquids, and refinery processing gains, alcohol. Not all countries are shown in each region and sum of reported country volumes may not equal regional volumes. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3c. OPEC Petroleum Production (million barrels per day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010

Year 2009

2010

1.42 1.91 0.50 3.83 2.35 2.57 1.71 1.94 0.85 9.26 2.57 2.35 31.27

29.41

30.13

6.20

4.48

5.14

6.00

36.26

36.45

35.75

34.54

36.14

34.14

35.05

35.45

1.42 1.92 0.50 3.85 2.37 2.60 1.75 1.95 0.96 10.75 2.59 2.35 33.01

33.69

34.70

4.03

4.87

5.21

0.00 0.01 0.00 0.03 0.02 0.03 0.03 0.01 0.11 1.49 0.02 0.00 1.74

4.29

4.57

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Crude Oil Algeria ........................................... Angola ........................................... Ecudaor ......................................... Iran ................................................ Iraq ................................................ Kuwait ............................................ Libya .............................................. Nigeria ........................................... Qatar ............................................. Saudi Arabia ................................. United Arab Emirates .................... Venezuela ..................................... OPEC Total ................................

1.41 1.91 0.52 3.80 2.25 2.58 1.74 1.99 0.85 9.20 2.60 2.40 31.25

1.42 1.92 0.50 3.80 2.40 2.60 1.71 1.90 0.87 9.32 2.60 2.37 31.40

1.42 1.85 0.50 3.90 2.42 2.60 1.71 1.95 0.87 9.57 2.60 2.34 31.74

1.42 1.95 0.50 3.80 2.34 2.50 1.70 1.92 0.81 8.95 2.48 2.31 30.68

29.12

29.29

29.53

29.67

29.99

30.11

30.19

30.24

Other Liquids ..................................

4.41

4.43

4.52

4.55

4.77

5.07

5.23

5.47

5.75

5.99

6.07

Total OPEC Supply ........................

35.66

35.83

36.26

35.24

33.89

34.36

34.77

35.14

35.73

36.09

Crude Oil Production Capacity Algeria ........................................... Angola ........................................... Ecudaor ......................................... Iran ................................................ Iraq ................................................ Kuwait ............................................ Libya .............................................. Nigeria ........................................... Qatar ............................................. Saudi Arabia ................................. United Arab Emirates .................... Venezuela ..................................... OPEC Total ................................

1.41 1.91 0.52 3.80 2.30 2.60 1.79 1.99 0.88 10.60 2.60 2.40 32.79

1.42 1.92 0.50 3.80 2.42 2.60 1.75 1.90 0.93 10.80 2.60 2.37 33.01

1.42 1.85 0.50 3.90 2.42 2.60 1.70 1.95 0.98 10.80 2.60 2.34 33.07

1.42 1.99 0.50 3.90 2.34 2.60 1.75 1.96 1.03 10.80 2.55 2.31 33.15

33.38

33.58

33.92

33.90

34.14

Surplus Crude Oil Production Capacity Algeria ........................................... 0.00 Angola ........................................... 0.00 Ecudaor ......................................... 0.00 Iran ................................................ 0.00 Iraq ................................................ 0.05 Kuwait ............................................ 0.02 Libya .............................................. 0.05 Nigeria ........................................... 0.00 Qatar ............................................. 0.03 Saudi Arabia ................................. 1.40 United Arab Emirates .................... 0.00 Venezuela ..................................... 0.00 OPEC Total ................................ 1.55

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.02 0.00 0.05 0.00 0.06 1.48 0.00 0.00 1.61

0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -0.01 0.00 0.11 1.23 0.00 0.00 1.33

0.00 0.04 0.00 0.10 0.00 0.10 0.05 0.04 0.22 1.85 0.07 0.00 2.47

4.26

4.29

4.38

4.22

4.16

2008

- = no data available OPEC = Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries: Algeria, Angola, Ecuador, Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, Libya, Nigeria, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Venezuela. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the International Petroleum Monthly ; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly release. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 3d. World Petroleum Consumption (million barrels per day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

North America .................................................... Canada ................................................................. Mexico .................................................................. United States ........................................................

24.35 2.37 2.10 19.88

24.11 2.25 2.16 19.68

23.32 2.36 2.11 18.84

24.12 2.45 2.12 19.54

23.53 2.25 2.08 19.19

23.11 2.20 2.07 18.82

23.21 2.29 2.05 18.86

23.64 2.32 2.09 19.22

23.49 2.23 2.07 19.18

23.28 2.18 2.05 19.03

23.46 2.27 2.03 19.15

23.96 2.30 2.07 19.58

Central and South America ............................. Brazil .....................................................................

6.07 2.48

6.20 2.53

6.29 2.58

6.26 2.58

6.17 2.55

6.30 2.60

6.39 2.66

6.36 2.65

6.39 2.68

6.53 2.73

6.63 2.79

Europe ................................................................

20.16

19.76

20.31

20.50

19.75

19.08

19.46

19.90

19.66

19.00

FSU and Eastern Europe ................................... Russia ..................................................................

5.70 2.90

5.68 2.88

5.70 2.89

5.81 2.96

5.71 2.90

5.60 2.83

5.64 2.84

5.77 2.91

5.76 2.92

Middle East ........................................................

6.52

6.61

6.80

6.66

6.62

6.81

7.01

6.86

Asia and Oceania .............................................. China .................................................................... Japan .................................................................... India ......................................................................

25.84 7.74 5.41 3.02

25.08 7.99 4.59 2.98

24.69 8.05 4.30 2.88

26.13 8.16 5.10 3.00

25.54 7.97 5.10 3.08

24.74 8.22 4.27 3.04

24.78 8.26 4.40 2.96

Africa ..................................................................

3.23

3.23

3.16

3.23

3.26

3.26

Total OECD Petroleum Consumption .............. Total non-OECD Petroleum Consumption .......

48.68 37.72

47.09 38.14

46.49 38.25

48.51 38.61

46.97 38.09

Total World PetroleumConsumption ................

86.39

85.24

84.74

87.12

World Oil-Consumption-Weighted GDP Index, 2006 Q1 = 100 ........................................... Percent change from prior year ............................

109.17 4.5

110.05 4.0

110.22 2.9

109.49 1.2

2008

2009

2010

23.97 2.36 2.12 19.48

23.37 2.26 2.08 19.02

23.55 2.25 2.06 19.24

6.59 2.79

6.21 2.54

6.30 2.62

6.54 2.75

19.38

19.81

20.18

19.55

19.46

5.65 2.85

5.69 2.86

5.82 2.93

5.72 2.91

5.68 2.87

5.73 2.89

7.00

7.19

7.39

7.24

6.65

6.83

7.21

26.00 8.44 4.84 3.09

25.92 8.28 5.01 3.19

25.12 8.54 4.18 3.16

25.16 8.58 4.31 3.07

26.38 8.76 4.75 3.21

25.44 7.98 4.85 2.97

25.26 8.23 4.65 3.04

25.64 8.54 4.56 3.16

3.18

3.26

3.35

3.35

3.28

3.35

3.22

3.24

3.33

44.86 38.57

45.40 38.70

47.09 39.13

46.77 39.27

44.87 39.77

45.48 39.90

47.24 40.34

47.69 38.18

46.08 38.63

46.09 39.82

85.06

83.44

84.09

86.21

86.04

84.64

85.39

87.58

85.87

84.70

85.92

108.95 -0.2

109.37 -0.6

109.81 -0.4

110.22 0.7

111.00 1.9

112.35 2.7

113.53 3.4

114.43 3.8

109.73 3.1

109.59 -0.1

112.84 3.0

- = no data available FSU = Former Soviet Union OECD = Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development: Australia, Austria, Belgium, Canada, the Czech Republic, Denmark, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Hungary, Iceland, Ireland, Italy, Japan, Luxembourg, Mexico, the Netherlands, New Zealand, Norway, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, South Korea, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, Turkey, the United Kingdom, and the United States. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting theInternational Petroleum Monthly; and International Energy Agency, Monthly Oil Data Service, latest monthly Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4a. U.S. Petroleum Supply, Consumption, and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Supply (million barrels per day) Crude Oil Supply Domestic Production (a) .................................. Alaska .......................................................... Federal Gulf of Mexico (b) ............................ Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ........................ Crude Oil Net Imports (c) ................................. SPR Net Withdrawals ..................................... Commercial Inventory Net Withdrawals .......... Crude Oil Adjustment (d) ................................. Total Crude Oil Input to Refineries ..................... Other Supply Refinery Processing Gain ................................ Natural Gas Liquids Production ...................... Other HC/Oxygenates Adjustment (e) ............. Fuel Ethanol Production ............................... Product Net Imports (c) ................................... Pentanes Plus .............................................. Liquefied Petroleum Gas .............................. Unfinished Oils ............................................. Other HC/Oxygenates ................................... Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ....................... Finished Motor Gasoline .............................. Jet Fuel ......................................................... Distillate Fuel Oil .......................................... Residual Fuel Oil .......................................... Other Oils (f) ................................................. Product Inventory Net Withdrawals ................. Total Supply ........................................................

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

5.12 0.71 1.33 3.07 9.72 -0.04 -0.30 0.09 14.59

5.15 0.68 1.35 3.11 9.84 -0.06 0.20 0.04 15.16

4.66 0.62 0.93 3.11 9.57 0.04 -0.09 0.15 14.33

4.88 0.72 1.02 3.14 9.86 0.01 -0.23 0.04 14.55

5.29 0.70 1.47 3.13 9.16 -0.14 -0.32 0.04 14.05

5.39 0.63 1.59 3.17 9.05 -0.09 0.09 0.06 14.52

5.31 0.58 1.58 3.15 8.91 -0.03 0.22 0.01 14.42

5.39 0.64 1.61 3.14 8.68 -0.03 0.06 -0.03 14.08

5.42 0.63 1.71 3.08 8.58 -0.01 -0.18 0.04 13.86

5.50 0.61 1.76 3.13 9.05 0.00 0.05 0.07 14.67

5.46 0.58 1.67 3.20 8.92 0.00 0.18 0.01 14.58

5.53 0.56 1.66 3.31 8.77 0.00 0.03 -0.02 14.31

4.95 0.68 1.16 3.11 9.75 -0.01 -0.10 0.08 14.66

5.35 0.64 1.56 3.14 8.95 -0.07 0.02 0.02 14.27

5.48 0.60 1.70 3.18 8.83 0.00 0.02 0.03 14.35

0.98 1.82 0.70 0.53 1.33 -0.01 0.16 0.75 -0.04 0.59 0.21 0.06 -0.10 -0.03 -0.26 0.47 19.90

0.97 1.87 0.77 0.58 1.41 -0.01 0.13 0.76 -0.02 0.84 0.21 0.07 -0.36 -0.01 -0.21 -0.50 19.68

0.95 1.75 0.82 0.63 1.15 -0.02 0.22 0.74 0.00 0.80 0.10 0.02 -0.47 0.00 -0.23 -0.16 18.84

1.00 1.76 0.85 0.66 1.30 0.00 0.20 0.78 -0.05 0.82 0.00 0.03 -0.32 -0.01 -0.16 0.08 19.54

0.98 1.79 0.85 0.68 1.19 -0.01 0.13 0.77 -0.03 0.67 0.07 0.03 -0.26 0.07 -0.25 0.33 19.19

0.95 1.82 0.87 0.69 1.19 -0.01 0.09 0.77 -0.05 0.82 0.16 0.08 -0.33 -0.02 -0.33 -0.52 18.82

0.97 1.77 0.87 0.69 1.06 -0.01 0.14 0.83 -0.03 0.73 0.14 0.04 -0.41 -0.07 -0.31 -0.23 18.86

1.00 1.71 0.88 0.71 1.29 0.01 0.20 0.76 -0.05 0.64 0.17 0.02 -0.18 -0.01 -0.27 0.26 19.22

0.97 1.71 0.89 0.71 1.33 0.01 0.18 0.77 -0.04 0.66 0.10 0.02 -0.18 0.05 -0.23 0.43 19.18

0.97 1.77 0.90 0.72 1.24 0.00 0.16 0.76 -0.06 0.83 0.16 0.08 -0.37 -0.01 -0.33 -0.51 19.03

0.99 1.78 0.90 0.72 1.10 0.00 0.16 0.83 -0.04 0.74 0.14 0.06 -0.44 -0.05 -0.31 -0.19 19.15

1.02 1.78 0.91 0.72 1.29 0.01 0.17 0.74 -0.05 0.65 0.20 0.01 -0.20 0.02 -0.27 0.28 19.58

0.98 1.80 0.78 0.60 1.30 -0.01 0.18 0.76 -0.03 0.76 0.13 0.04 -0.31 -0.01 -0.21 -0.03 19.49

0.97 1.77 0.87 0.69 1.18 0.00 0.14 0.78 -0.04 0.71 0.14 0.04 -0.29 -0.01 -0.29 -0.04 19.02

0.99 1.76 0.90 0.72 1.24 0.01 0.17 0.78 -0.05 0.72 0.15 0.04 -0.30 0.00 -0.29 0.00 19.24

Consumption (million barrels per day) Natural Gas Liquids and Other Liquids Pentanes Plus ................................................. Liquefied Petroleum Gas ................................. Unfinished Oils ................................................ Finished Petroleum Products Motor Gasoline ................................................ Jet Fuel ............................................................ Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................. Residual Fuel Oil ............................................. Other Oils (f) .................................................... Total Consumption .............................................

0.11 2.25 0.00

0.07 1.86 -0.06

0.07 1.77 -0.13

0.13 1.99 0.08

0.10 2.21 0.01

0.08 1.75 -0.01

0.09 1.78 -0.02

0.11 2.01 -0.01

0.10 2.18 0.00

0.09 1.78 -0.01

0.10 1.83 -0.01

0.11 2.06 0.00

0.09 1.97 -0.03

0.09 1.94 -0.01

0.10 1.97 0.00

8.91 1.54 4.20 0.60 2.27 19.88

9.14 1.58 3.92 0.68 2.49 19.68

8.88 1.54 3.69 0.58 2.44 18.84

8.96 1.42 4.06 0.62 2.28 19.54

8.68 1.42 4.04 0.63 2.10 19.19

8.92 1.49 3.77 0.56 2.27 18.82

8.99 1.48 3.66 0.51 2.37 18.86

8.96 1.44 3.95 0.55 2.20 19.22

8.64 1.45 4.05 0.64 2.12 19.18

8.97 1.52 3.81 0.59 2.29 19.03

9.04 1.52 3.72 0.54 2.40 19.15

9.06 1.46 4.05 0.59 2.25 19.58

8.97 1.52 3.97 0.62 2.37 19.48

8.89 1.46 3.85 0.56 2.24 19.02

8.93 1.49 3.91 0.59 2.27 19.24

Total Petroleum Net Imports

............................

11.05

11.25

10.73

11.16

10.35

10.24

9.97

9.97

9.91

10.29

10.02

10.05

11.05

10.13

10.07

End-of-period Inventories (million barrels) Commercial Inventory Crude Oil (excluding SPR) .............................. Pentanes Plus ................................................. Liquefied Petroleum Gas ................................. Unfinished Oils ................................................ Other HC/Oxygenates ...................................... Total Motor Gasoline ....................................... Finished Motor Gasoline .............................. Motor Gasoline Blend Comp. ....................... Jet Fuel ............................................................ Distillate Fuel Oil ............................................. Residual Fuel Oil ............................................. Other Oils (f) .................................................... Total Commercial Inventory ................................ Crude Oil in SPR ................................................ Heating Oil Reserve ...........................................

313.1 9.1 64.7 90.2 13.3 221.2 110.0 111.2 38.4 107.2 39.4 56.1 953 700 2.0

294.7 12.9 103.1 88.7 13.8 209.8 107.0 102.8 39.7 121.1 41.6 54.2 980 706 2.0

303.3 15.8 137.9 91.4 17.2 189.5 92.3 97.1 37.5 127.2 39.0 44.2 1,003 702 2.0

324.5 11.5 111.5 80.6 16.6 211.0 95.8 115.2 37.4 137.6 34.2 51.8 1,017 702 2.0

353.3 10.5 74.7 93.7 17.7 211.4 91.3 120.1 37.4 119.7 35.8 61.5 1,016 714 2.0

344.6 11.8 112.7 90.1 17.3 216.1 100.5 115.6 39.1 126.0 37.6 59.2 1,055 722 2.0

324.5 12.5 139.3 89.2 18.3 208.4 97.3 111.2 39.9 135.4 37.3 50.7 1,056 724 2.0

318.8 9.9 109.3 83.3 17.5 216.3 102.4 113.8 39.4 138.8 40.1 52.7 1,026 727 2.0

334.6 9.6 76.0 94.6 18.6 213.5 95.1 118.4 38.1 115.1 39.9 63.0 1,003 727 2.0

330.5 11.0 114.8 90.7 18.2 215.4 100.7 114.8 39.4 125.5 40.2 59.8 1,046 727 2.0

313.9 12.1 140.2 89.9 19.2 206.2 95.1 111.1 40.1 135.4 39.1 50.9 1,047 727 2.0

310.8 9.8 108.6 83.3 18.4 214.1 98.5 115.6 39.5 139.0 41.5 52.7 1,018 727 2.0

324.5 11.5 111.5 80.6 16.6 211.0 95.8 115.2 37.4 137.6 34.2 51.8 1,017 702 2.0

318.8 9.9 109.3 83.3 17.5 216.3 102.4 113.8 39.4 138.8 40.1 52.7 1,026 727 2.0

310.8 9.8 108.6 83.3 18.4 214.1 98.5 115.6 39.5 139.0 41.5 52.7 1,018 727 2.0

- = no data available (a) Includes lease condensate. (b) Crude oil production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico (GOM). (c) Net imports equals gross imports minus gross exports. (d) Crude oil adjustment balances supply and consumption and was previously referred to as "Unaccounted for Crude Oil." (e) Other HC/oxygenates adjustment balances supply and consumption and includes MTBE and fuel ethanol production reported in the EIA-819M Monthly Oxygenate Report . This adjustment was previously referred to as "Field Production." (f) "Other Oils" inludes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. SPR: Strategic Petroleum Reserve HC: Hydrocarbons Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109;

Table 4b. U.S. Petroleum Refinery Balance (Million Barrels per Day, Except Utilization Factor) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

2010

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

Refinery and Blender Net Inputs Crude OIl ............................................................ Pentanes Plus ..................................................... Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................... Other Hydrocarbons/Oxygenates ....................... Unfinished Oils .................................................... Motor Gasoline Blend Components .................... Aviation Gasoline Blend Components ................ Total Refinery and Blender Net Inputs ...................

14.59 0.15 0.36 0.54 0.67 0.28 0.00 16.58

15.16 0.16 0.29 0.60 0.84 0.63 0.00 17.68

14.33 0.15 0.27 0.66 0.84 0.48 0.00 16.73

14.55 0.17 0.41 0.73 0.82 0.30 0.00 16.99

14.05 0.16 0.37 0.70 0.61 0.36 0.00 16.24

14.52 0.16 0.29 0.70 0.82 0.52 0.00 17.02

14.42 0.17 0.30 0.71 0.86 0.39 0.00 16.85

14.08 0.18 0.41 0.72 0.83 0.26 0.00 16.47

13.86 0.16 0.36 0.73 0.64 0.37 0.00 16.11

14.67 0.16 0.28 0.73 0.82 0.54 0.00 17.19

14.58 0.17 0.29 0.73 0.85 0.40 0.00 17.02

14.31 0.18 0.40 0.73 0.81 0.26 0.00 16.70

14.66 0.16 0.33 0.63 0.79 0.42 0.00 16.99

14.27 0.17 0.34 0.71 0.78 0.38 0.00 16.65

14.35 0.17 0.33 0.73 0.78 0.39 0.00 16.76

Refinery Processing Gain .................................

0.98

0.97

0.95

1.00

0.98

0.95

0.97

1.00

0.97

0.97

0.99

1.02

0.98

0.97

0.99

Refinery and Blender Net Production Liquefied Petroleum Gas .................................... Finished Motor Gasoline ..................................... Jet Fuel ............................................................... Distillate Fuel ...................................................... Residual Fuel ...................................................... Other Oils (a) ...................................................... Total Refinery and Blender Net Production ...........

0.55 8.34 1.47 4.01 0.63 2.57 17.57

0.85 8.45 1.52 4.44 0.71 2.68 18.65

0.73 8.12 1.50 4.22 0.55 2.56 17.68

0.41 8.59 1.40 4.49 0.57 2.52 17.99

0.50 8.20 1.39 4.10 0.58 2.45 17.23

0.81 8.39 1.43 4.17 0.60 2.57 17.97

0.73 8.30 1.45 4.17 0.57 2.59 17.81

0.44 8.38 1.41 4.16 0.58 2.50 17.47

0.52 8.11 1.41 3.97 0.59 2.47 17.08

0.82 8.41 1.45 4.29 0.60 2.58 18.16

0.74 8.33 1.46 4.26 0.58 2.62 18.00

0.44 8.43 1.44 4.28 0.59 2.54 17.72

0.63 8.37 1.47 4.29 0.62 2.58 17.97

0.62 8.31 1.42 4.15 0.58 2.53 17.62

0.63 8.32 1.44 4.20 0.59 2.55 17.74

Refinery Distillation Inputs ............................... Refinery Operable Distillation Capacity .......... Refinery Distillation Utilization Factor ..............

14.89 17.59 0.85

15.52 17.60 0.88

14.72 17.61 0.84

15.01 17.62 0.85

14.43 17.62 0.82

14.85 17.62 0.84

14.76 17.62 0.84

14.43 17.62 0.82

14.20 17.62 0.81

15.00 17.62 0.85

14.91 17.62 0.85

14.66 17.62 0.83

15.03 17.61 0.85

14.62 17.62 0.83

14.70 17.62 0.83

- = no data available (a) "Other Oils" includes aviation gasoline blend components, finished aviation gasoline, kerosene, petrochemical feedstocks, special naphthas, lubricants, waxes, petroleum coke, asphalt and road oil, still gas, and miscellaneous products. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Supply Monthly, DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual, DOE/EIA-0340/2; Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4c. U.S. Regional Motor Gasoline Prices and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon) Refiner Wholesale Price ...................... 249 315 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Excluding Taxes PADD 1 (East Coast) .......................... 263 325 PADD 2 (Midwest) .............................. 260 325 PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ........................... 260 323 PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) .................. 255 321 PADD 5 (West Coast) ......................... 268 339 U.S. Average ................................... 262 327 Gasoline Regular Grade Retail Prices Including Taxes PADD 1 .............................................. 312 374 PADD 2 .............................................. 307 373 PADD 3 .............................................. 301 364 PADD 4 .............................................. 302 367 PADD 5 .............................................. 327 398 U.S. Average ................................... 311 376 Gasoline All Grades Including Taxes 316 381 End-of-period Inventories (million barrels) Total Gasoline Inventories PADD 1 .............................................. 59.4 PADD 2 .............................................. 52.4 PADD 3 .............................................. 71.5 PADD 4 .............................................. 6.7 PADD 5 .............................................. 31.3 U.S. Total ........................................ 221.2 Finished Gasoline Inventories PADD 1 .............................................. 27.0 PADD 2 .............................................. 34.5 PADD 3 .............................................. 36.1 PADD 4 .............................................. 4.7 PADD 5 .............................................. 7.7 U.S. Total ........................................ 110.0 Gasoline Blending Components Inventories PADD 1 .............................................. 32.4 PADD 2 .............................................. 17.9 PADD 3 .............................................. 35.3 PADD 4 .............................................. 1.9 PADD 5 .............................................. 23.6 U.S. Total ........................................ 111.2

2010

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

315

155

133

137

135

130

141

159

168

165

259

134

158

332 331 330 343 343 333

181 168 173 178 190 177

137 140 134 124 152 139

147 148 146 150 170 151

145 148 145 156 163 150

141 141 140 145 157 144

150 150 148 146 163 152

167 169 166 169 186 171

178 181 177 187 193 181

176 176 175 180 191 178

275 271 272 274 285 275

143 144 142 144 161 146

168 169 167 171 183 171

383 381 374 391 406 385 391

234 218 218 230 253 230 236

187 187 177 174 212 189 194

196 193 187 197 228 199 204

194 194 187 203 219 198 203

190 187 182 193 213 192 197

198 195 190 194 217 199 204

215 215 208 217 242 219 224

226 229 219 235 248 230 235

225 223 217 228 246 227 232

326 320 314 323 346 325 331

192 190 183 192 218 195 200

216 216 209 219 239 219 224

59.2 51.3 64.7 6.6 28.0 209.8

45.8 48.8 61.9 6.5 26.4 189.5

62.5 47.9 66.6 6.9 27.0 211.0

60.4 49.2 69.8 6.1 25.9 211.4

62.7 49.4 71.1 5.8 27.2 216.1

59.2 49.4 67.7 5.6 26.4 208.4

60.3 50.6 71.2 6.3 27.9 216.3

59.7 49.6 70.4 6.2 27.5 213.5

62.7 49.1 70.0 5.9 27.7 215.4

57.7 49.2 66.8 5.6 26.8 206.2

59.0 50.4 70.4 6.2 28.1 214.1

62.5 47.9 66.6 6.9 27.0 211.0

60.3 50.6 71.2 6.3 27.9 216.3

59.0 50.4 70.4 6.2 28.1 214.1

28.8 33.6 33.8 4.5 6.3 107.0

20.1 30.3 31.6 4.3 6.0 92.3

25.9 29.5 31.4 4.7 4.2 95.8

20.6 30.6 30.1 4.3 5.7 91.3

24.9 31.6 32.8 4.2 6.9 100.5

23.2 32.3 31.6 4.1 6.1 97.3

24.6 33.5 34.9 4.3 5.2 102.4

20.9 31.6 32.2 4.3 6.0 95.1

25.3 31.4 32.6 4.2 7.2 100.7

22.8 31.8 30.2 4.0 6.3 95.1

23.2 32.7 33.1 4.2 5.3 98.5

25.9 29.5 31.4 4.7 4.2 95.8

24.6 33.5 34.9 4.3 5.2 102.4

23.2 32.7 33.1 4.2 5.3 98.5

30.5 17.6 30.9 2.2 21.7 102.8

25.7 18.5 30.3 2.2 20.4 97.1

36.6 18.4 35.2 2.3 22.8 115.2

39.8 18.7 39.7 1.8 20.1 120.1

37.7 17.8 38.2 1.6 20.3 115.6

36.0 17.2 36.1 1.6 20.4 111.2

35.7 17.1 36.4 2.0 22.6 113.8

38.8 18.0 38.2 1.9 21.5 118.4

37.5 17.7 37.4 1.7 20.5 114.8

34.9 17.5 36.6 1.6 20.5 111.1

35.8 17.7 37.3 2.1 22.7 115.6

36.6 18.4 35.2 2.3 22.8 115.2

35.7 17.1 36.4 2.0 22.6 113.8

35.8 17.7 37.3 2.1 22.7 115.6

- = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD). See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4d. U.S. Regional Heating Oil Prices and Distillate Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

2009 3rd

Prices (cents per gallon) Refiner Wholesale Prices Heating Oil ......................... 269 347 Diesel Fuel ......................... 283 365 Heating Oil Residential Prices Excluding Taxes Northeast ........................... 324 381 South ................................. 327 386 Midwest ............................. 319 389 West .................................. 330 399 U.S. Average .................. 324 382 Heating Oil Residential Prices Including State Taxes Northeast ........................... 340 400 South ................................. 341 403 Midwest ............................. 338 412 West .................................. 339 410 U.S. Average .................. 340 401

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

337 347

187 201

154 154

156 161

151 156

154 158

158 166

174 188

183 191

191 195

275 303

154 157

173 186

390 393 382 399 390

270 268 238 263 267

229 221 201 226 226

214 206 198 224 212

202 197 198 216 202

217 215 208 226 217

225 222 212 231 224

225 220 222 240 225

233 228 232 249 233

252 250 246 266 252

322 321 304 328 321

220 215 203 225 219

234 231 226 246 233

409 410 404 410 409

283 280 252 269 280

240 231 213 232 238

224 215 210 230 223

212 205 210 222 212

228 225 220 232 227

236 231 224 237 235

236 230 235 246 236

244 238 246 256 244

265 260 260 273 264

338 335 322 337 336

231 225 214 231 230

245 241 239 252 245

Total Distillate End-of-period Inventories (million barrels) PADD 1 (East Coast) ............ 33.2 41.9 50.5 PADD 2 (Midwest) ................ 28.5 30.3 27.9 PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) ............. 29.9 32.4 33.1 PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) .... 3.1 3.4 2.9 PADD 5 (West Coast) ........... 12.5 13.2 12.8 U.S. Total ........................... 107.2 121.1 127.2

54.2 29.6 37.1 2.7 13.9 137.6

39.8 29.5 35.7 3.1 11.6 119.7

46.3 29.2 35.3 3.1 12.1 126.0

59.1 29.1 33.0 2.7 11.6 135.4

59.3 29.0 34.5 3.2 12.8 138.8

40.1 27.9 32.6 3.1 11.4 115.1

46.8 29.4 34.2 3.1 12.0 125.5

59.4 28.9 32.8 2.8 11.6 135.4

59.7 28.8 34.4 3.3 12.8 139.0

54.2 29.6 37.1 2.7 13.9 137.6

59.3 29.0 34.5 3.2 12.8 138.8

59.7 28.8 34.4 3.3 12.8 139.0

- = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) for inventories and to U.S. Census regions for prices. See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” and "Census region" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 4e. U.S. Regional Propane Prices and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

Prices (cents per gallon) Propane Wholesale Price (a) ..... 145 166 Propane Residential Prices excluding Taxes Northeast .................................. 270 289 South ....................................... 257 267 Midwest .................................... 204 217 West ........................................ 258 255 U.S. Average ......................... 237 251 Propane Residential Prices including State Taxes Northeast .................................. 282 302 South ....................................... 270 280 Midwest .................................... 216 229 West ........................................ 273 270 U.S. Average ......................... 250 265 Propane End-of-period Inventories (million barrels) PADD 1 (East Coast) ................... 2.5 3.8 PADD 2 (Midwest) ....................... 9.0 17.8 PADD 3 (Gulf Coast) .................... 13.3 19.7 PADD 4 (Rocky Mountain) ........... 0.4 0.4 PADD 5 (West Coast) .................. 0.4 0.9 U.S. Total ................................. 25.6 42.6

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

172

85

79

68

61

66

72

75

76

87

139

69

78

313 273 227 257 257

265 242 200 226 225

231 218 179 213 203

198 182 143 177 172

188 160 122 156 148

190 171 130 175 158

196 182 137 184 166

197 173 131 169 164

199 169 128 163 156

207 190 145 191 174

276 255 207 249 238

208 191 152 186 177

200 182 138 180 167

327 287 240 271 270

277 254 211 239 237

241 229 190 225 214

207 191 151 187 180

196 168 129 165 156

199 180 137 185 166

205 191 145 195 175

206 182 138 179 173

208 177 135 172 164

216 199 153 202 184

289 268 219 263 250

217 200 160 196 186

209 191 146 190 176

4.4 24.5 27.8 0.4 2.0 59.2

3.3 18.1 32.4 0.4 2.1 56.3

1.7 7.5 19.9 0.2 0.6 30.0

3.8 16.1 27.0 0.3 1.4 48.6

4.7 22.6 33.4 0.4 2.6 63.7

4.4 19.0 28.5 0.4 1.8 54.2

2.6 8.3 16.6 0.3 0.6 28.5

4.0 16.6 26.1 0.4 1.4 48.5

4.8 23.0 32.5 0.5 2.6 63.3

4.5 18.9 27.1 0.4 1.9 52.7

3.3 18.1 32.4 0.4 2.1 56.3

4.4 19.0 28.5 0.4 1.8 54.2

4.5 18.9 27.1 0.4 1.9 52.7

- = no data available (a) Propane price to petrochemical sector. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to Petroleum Administration for Defense Districts (PADD) for inventories and to U.S. Census regions for prices. See “Petroleum for Administration Defense District” and "Census region" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Petroleum Marketing Monthly , DOE/EIA-0380; Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109; Petroleum Supply Annual , DOE/EIA-0340/2; and Weekly Petroleum Status Report , DOE/EIA-0208. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5a. U.S. Natural Gas Supply, Consumption, and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2010

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

58.29 1.23 7.81 49.25 55.83 12.04 11.21 0.83 3.48 8.56 0.12 18.08 82.59 -0.41 82.18

58.88 1.03 6.97 50.87 56.36 9.91 8.84 1.06 2.38 7.53 0.14 -10.25 53.78 1.34 55.12

57.87 0.97 5.58 51.32 55.52 10.42 9.35 1.07 2.09 8.33 0.16 -10.79 53.22 -0.23 52.99

59.38 1.20 5.40 52.78 57.00 10.56 9.64 0.92 2.66 7.90 0.16 3.47 68.53 -4.51 64.01

60.56 1.24 6.41 52.91 58.14 10.30 9.34 0.96 3.18 7.12 0.16 15.37 80.78 0.12 80.91

60.12 1.01 6.26 52.85 57.72 9.51 8.31 1.20 2.19 7.32 0.13 -10.95 54.22 -0.11 54.11

58.01 0.98 5.65 51.38 55.69 10.16 9.04 1.12 2.03 8.13 0.15 -9.43 54.54 -0.85 53.69

56.30 1.15 5.80 49.35 54.05 9.79 9.02 0.77 2.72 7.07 0.16 3.59 64.87 -2.49 62.38

57.44 1.22 5.99 50.22 55.14 10.57 9.57 1.00 3.23 7.34 0.16 15.76 78.39 1.72 80.12

58.29 1.02 5.85 51.42 55.97 10.27 8.64 1.63 2.18 8.09 0.13 -10.14 54.05 0.25 54.30

58.05 1.00 5.29 51.76 55.73 10.53 9.16 1.37 2.04 8.49 0.15 -8.85 55.53 -0.69 54.84

58.54 1.19 5.47 51.88 56.21 10.21 9.15 1.06 2.83 7.38 0.16 3.75 67.50 -4.14 63.35

58.60 1.11 6.44 51.06 56.18 10.73 9.76 0.97 2.65 8.08 0.15 0.11 64.51 -0.96 63.55

58.73 1.09 6.03 51.61 56.39 9.94 8.93 1.01 2.53 7.41 0.15 -0.41 63.53 -0.84 62.70

58.08 1.11 5.65 51.33 55.76 10.40 9.13 1.27 2.57 7.83 0.15 0.07 63.81 -0.73 63.08

Consumption (billion cubic feet per day) Residential ................................... 25.89 Commercial ................................. 14.31 Industrial ...................................... 20.56 Electric Power (c) ......................... 15.62 Lease and Plant Fuel ................... 3.49 Pipeline and Distribution Use ....... 2.22 Vehicle Use ................................. 0.08 Total Consumption .......................... 82.18

8.52 6.26 17.65 17.59 3.53 1.49 0.08 55.12

3.77 4.15 16.71 23.37 3.46 1.43 0.08 52.99

15.20 9.35 17.99 16.09 3.56 1.74 0.08 64.01

26.64 14.54 19.08 14.67 3.63 2.26 0.09 80.91

8.76 6.32 16.76 17.07 3.60 1.52 0.09 54.11

3.88 4.32 15.99 24.46 3.47 1.48 0.09 53.69

15.01 9.08 17.40 15.73 3.37 1.70 0.09 62.38

26.53 14.34 19.04 14.47 3.44 2.20 0.10 80.12

8.93 6.34 16.68 17.28 3.49 1.47 0.10 54.30

3.89 4.32 16.10 25.49 3.48 1.45 0.10 54.84

15.08 9.12 17.57 16.27 3.51 1.71 0.10 63.35

13.32 8.51 18.23 18.18 3.51 1.72 0.08 63.55

13.51 8.54 17.30 18.00 3.52 1.74 0.09 62.70

13.55 8.51 17.34 18.40 3.48 1.71 0.10 63.08

End-of-period Inventories (billion cubic feet) Working Gas Inventory ................ 1,247 Producing Region (d) ................ 497 East Consuming Region (d) ...... 574 West Consuming Region (d) ..... 176

2,171 705 1,157 310

3,163 845 1,887 431

2,843 898 1,554 391

1,460 629 579 252

2,457 868 1,218 371

3,325 995 1,880 449

2,994 955 1,636 403

1,576 659 673 244

2,499 885 1,249 365

3,313 992 1,876 446

2,968 941 1,631 396

2,843 898 1,554 391

2,994 955 1,636 403

2,968 941 1,631 396

Supply (billion cubic feet per day) Total Marketed Production ............ Alaska ...................................... Federal GOM (a) ....................... Lower 48 States (excl GOM) ..... Total Dry Gas Production ............. Gross Imports .............................. Pipeline .................................... LNG .......................................... Gross Exports .............................. Net Imports .................................. Supplemental Gaseous Fuels ...... Net Inventory Withdrawals ........... Total Supply .................................... Balancing Item (b) .......................... Total Primary Supply .......................

2008

Year 2009

1st

2010

- = no data available (a) Marketed production from U.S. Federal leases in the Gulf of Mexico. (b) The balancing item represents the difference between the sum of the components of natural gas supply and the sum of components of natural gas demand. (c) Natural gas used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers. (d) For a list of States in each inventory region refer toMethodology for EIA Weekly Underground Natural Gas Storage Estimates (http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/ngs/methodology.html). Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. LNG: liquefied natural gas. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130; and Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5b. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Consumption (Billion Cubic Feet/ Day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Residential Sector New England .............. Middle Atlantic ............ E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central ............. S. Atlantic ................... E. S. Central ............... W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... Total ........................ Commercial Sector New England .............. Middle Atlantic ............ E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central ............. S. Atlantic ................... E. S. Central ............... W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... Total ........................ Industrial Sector New England .............. Middle Atlantic ............ E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central ............. S. Atlantic ................... E. S. Central ............... W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... Total ........................

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

0.98 4.46 7.65 2.65 2.25 1.06 1.88 1.98 2.97 25.89

0.39 1.57 2.32 0.79 0.58 0.26 0.51 0.70 1.41 8.52

0.16 0.63 0.85 0.27 0.32 0.11 0.28 0.31 0.83 3.77

0.51 2.60 4.61 1.41 1.57 0.58 0.90 1.17 1.86 15.20

1.10 4.95 8.05 2.58 2.42 1.10 1.83 1.84 2.76 26.64

0.41 1.75 2.30 0.72 0.63 0.27 0.54 0.69 1.45 8.76

0.15 0.67 0.83 0.29 0.34 0.13 0.28 0.29 0.90 3.88

0.49 2.50 4.46 1.35 1.47 0.54 0.87 1.30 2.03 15.01

1.09 4.87 7.76 2.47 2.50 1.10 1.87 1.98 2.89 26.53

0.42 1.80 2.40 0.72 0.66 0.28 0.52 0.71 1.43 8.93

0.15 0.68 0.85 0.31 0.34 0.12 0.29 0.28 0.87 3.89

0.50 2.50 4.55 1.36 1.48 0.53 0.86 1.31 1.99 15.08

0.51 2.31 3.85 1.28 1.18 0.50 0.89 1.04 1.77 13.32

0.53 2.46 3.89 1.23 1.21 0.51 0.88 1.03 1.78 13.51

0.54 2.45 3.87 1.21 1.24 0.50 0.88 1.07 1.79 13.55

0.60 2.70 3.71 1.56 1.51 0.65 1.13 1.08 1.35 14.31

0.26 1.19 1.30 0.55 0.71 0.25 0.60 0.50 0.89 6.26

0.15 0.86 0.69 0.29 0.56 0.17 0.47 0.28 0.68 4.15

0.33 1.83 2.28 0.92 1.20 0.40 0.73 0.67 0.99 9.35

0.62 2.84 3.87 1.53 1.63 0.66 1.10 0.99 1.29 14.54

0.27 1.29 1.29 0.53 0.73 0.24 0.58 0.50 0.88 6.32

0.15 0.87 0.74 0.33 0.54 0.18 0.50 0.30 0.71 4.32

0.34 1.68 2.19 0.88 1.11 0.38 0.76 0.70 1.03 9.08

0.61 2.79 3.68 1.47 1.63 0.65 1.16 1.03 1.33 14.34

0.27 1.30 1.30 0.53 0.74 0.24 0.57 0.50 0.89 6.34

0.15 0.87 0.73 0.33 0.55 0.18 0.50 0.30 0.71 4.32

0.34 1.69 2.21 0.89 1.11 0.38 0.77 0.71 1.02 9.12

0.33 1.64 2.00 0.83 1.00 0.37 0.73 0.63 0.98 8.51

0.34 1.67 2.02 0.81 1.00 0.36 0.74 0.62 0.98 8.54

0.34 1.66 1.97 0.80 1.00 0.36 0.75 0.63 0.99 8.51

0.36 1.13 3.82 1.66 1.59 1.40 7.06 0.96 2.58 20.56

0.21 0.83 2.85 1.32 1.42 1.21 6.67 0.76 2.37 17.65

0.15 0.74 2.53 1.26 1.34 1.11 6.41 0.69 2.48 16.71

0.24 0.89 2.98 1.41 1.37 1.17 6.54 0.85 2.56 17.99

0.32 1.05 3.69 1.35 1.51 1.29 6.60 0.84 2.42 19.08

0.21 0.83 2.71 1.09 1.35 1.11 6.40 0.70 2.35 16.76

0.16 0.74 2.41 1.11 1.26 1.02 6.22 0.66 2.42 15.99

0.22 0.88 3.04 1.25 1.38 1.15 6.22 0.78 2.47 17.40

0.31 1.04 3.62 1.34 1.50 1.27 6.63 0.84 2.48 19.04

0.21 0.82 2.66 1.10 1.33 1.10 6.40 0.70 2.36 16.68

0.16 0.74 2.40 1.14 1.25 1.02 6.28 0.67 2.44 16.10

0.22 0.89 3.05 1.29 1.37 1.16 6.30 0.79 2.49 17.57

0.24 0.90 3.04 1.41 1.43 1.22 6.67 0.81 2.50 18.23

0.23 0.87 2.96 1.20 1.37 1.14 6.36 0.75 2.41 17.30

0.23 0.87 2.93 1.22 1.36 1.13 6.40 0.75 2.45 17.34

- = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 5c. U.S. Regional Natural Gas Prices (dollars per thousand cubic feet) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Wholesale/Spot U.S. Average Wellhead ...... Henry Hub Spot Price ........ Residential New England ..................... Middle Atlantic ................... E. N. Central ...................... W. N. Central ..................... S. Atlantic .......................... E. S. Central ...................... W. S. Central ..................... Mountain ............................ Pacific ................................ U.S. Average .................. Commercial New England ..................... Middle Atlantic ................... E. N. Central ...................... W. N. Central ..................... S. Atlantic .......................... E. S. Central ...................... W. S. Central ..................... Mountain ............................ Pacific ................................ U.S. Average .................. Industrial New England ..................... Middle Atlantic ................... E. N. Central ...................... W. N. Central ..................... S. Atlantic .......................... E. S. Central ...................... W. S. Central ..................... Mountain ............................ Pacific ................................ U.S. Average ..................

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

7.62 8.92

9.86 11.73

8.81 9.29

6.06 6.60

4.80 5.13

4.37 4.92

4.02 4.73

4.47 5.27

5.10 6.03

4.93 5.81

4.86 5.66

5.38 6.23

8.08 9.13

4.42 5.01

5.07 5.93

16.19 14.69 11.39 11.20 15.29 13.41 11.93 10.45 12.12 12.46

17.98 17.29 14.94 14.36 20.88 17.51 17.93 12.37 14.37 15.57

21.63 22.09 19.51 20.21 27.01 23.07 21.40 15.59 15.54 19.29

17.14 16.13 12.20 11.16 16.86 14.84 12.11 10.73 11.08 13.08

16.16 13.68 10.88 9.94 14.99 12.51 9.24 9.99 10.49 11.61

14.81 13.58 11.03 10.99 17.22 13.08 11.26 9.66 9.53 11.63

16.93 16.43 13.39 14.62 21.59 16.33 14.50 12.23 10.07 13.68

14.91 13.21 9.87 10.54 15.38 13.08 11.77 9.15 9.85 11.17

14.84 12.54 9.56 10.19 13.87 11.95 10.08 9.69 10.28 10.87

14.48 13.50 10.64 11.25 16.60 13.34 12.34 9.84 9.95 11.65

17.41 16.94 13.97 15.24 21.65 16.94 15.64 12.62 10.77 14.31

15.86 14.00 10.70 11.10 15.70 13.84 12.92 9.73 10.54 11.89

17.19 16.04 12.62 12.16 17.30 14.91 13.58 11.24 12.70 13.62

15.66 13.73 10.74 10.54 15.86 12.98 10.60 9.83 10.06 11.64

15.18 13.40 10.31 10.93 15.32 12.94 11.57 9.92 10.35 11.53

14.22 12.97 10.45 10.59 13.00 12.41 10.61 9.48 11.23 11.34

15.31 14.40 13.06 12.25 14.61 14.65 13.11 10.53 12.45 13.10

17.33 14.71 14.97 13.72 15.80 16.50 13.50 11.59 13.15 14.16

14.41 12.46 10.85 9.40 12.92 13.69 10.23 9.58 10.20 11.22

13.24 11.31 9.42 9.04 11.85 11.98 8.76 8.56 9.40 10.18

11.68 10.03 8.57 8.29 10.72 10.65 7.95 7.70 7.96 9.09

11.29 9.06 8.67 8.24 10.44 10.53 8.27 8.12 7.78 8.89

12.23 10.47 8.60 8.22 11.19 11.09 8.69 7.87 8.52 9.36

12.81 10.78 9.11 8.92 11.29 11.21 8.57 8.13 9.30 9.79

12.16 10.21 9.16 8.83 10.88 10.93 8.45 7.92 8.45 9.45

11.99 9.82 9.46 9.05 11.11 10.95 9.02 8.58 8.49 9.58

13.03 11.29 9.44 9.15 11.80 11.65 9.57 8.66 9.29 10.12

14.78 13.20 11.25 10.77 13.52 13.57 11.45 9.93 11.53 11.90

12.51 10.60 9.02 8.63 11.28 11.36 8.51 8.14 8.58 9.62

12.66 10.67 9.23 8.98 11.31 11.25 8.87 8.30 8.98 9.79

13.06 12.43 9.85 9.12 10.65 9.46 8.12 9.33 9.74 8.91

14.65 13.33 11.74 10.35 12.63 11.60 10.91 10.03 10.81 11.12

15.55 14.19 12.41 10.37 13.09 11.94 10.35 10.08 10.95 10.76

12.76 12.50 9.63 7.63 10.19 9.21 6.94 8.25 8.88 7.82

11.63 10.13 8.02 7.04 8.02 7.49 5.51 7.70 7.49 6.55

9.66 7.79 7.12 5.47 6.94 6.38 4.99 6.52 5.54 5.49

8.86 7.43 6.97 5.34 6.85 6.27 4.82 6.20 5.11 5.23

10.63 9.19 7.55 6.13 7.91 7.31 5.37 6.77 6.45 6.08

11.46 9.93 8.13 7.25 8.15 7.83 5.90 7.56 7.22 6.77

10.39 8.57 7.93 6.22 7.65 7.19 5.73 7.21 6.04 6.19

9.73 8.23 7.94 6.18 7.72 7.14 5.69 7.09 6.00 6.07

11.48 9.94 8.33 6.96 8.74 7.91 6.15 7.69 7.39 6.84

13.66 12.86 10.49 9.26 11.46 10.42 9.10 9.33 10.01 9.60

10.52 8.94 7.58 6.07 7.49 6.93 5.17 6.86 6.20 5.87

10.95 9.37 8.13 6.71 8.10 7.56 5.87 7.42 6.69 6.49

- = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the Natural Gas Monthly , DOE/EIA-0130. Natural gas Henry Hub spot price from NGI's Daily Gas Price Index (http://Intelligencepress.com). Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 6. U.S. Coal Supply, Consumption, and Inventories Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

Supply (million short tons) Production ........................................ Appalachia .................................... Interior .......................................... Western ........................................ Primary Inventory Withdrawals .......... Imports ............................................ Exports ............................................ Metallurgical Coal .......................... Steam Coal ................................... Total Primary Supply ...........................

289.1 97.8 35.5 155.8 1.5 7.6 15.8 9.1 6.7 282.5

283.9 99.1 35.0 149.8 1.1 9.0 23.1 12.6 10.5 270.9

299.0 95.4 37.9 165.8 1.2 8.5 20.3 10.6 9.8 288.3

298.1 97.4 36.3 164.5 2.9 8.7 22.2 11.0 11.2 287.5

272.6 92.2 33.5 147.0 -1.6 7.9 13.4 6.0 7.4 265.6

272.1 94.2 33.6 144.4 -3.0 9.1 19.1 8.1 11.0 259.1

279.3 91.5 34.3 153.5 7.6 9.1 20.7 8.9 11.7 275.3

294.4 93.6 36.3 164.6 -0.3 8.9 18.7 10.8 7.9 284.3

279.8 94.6 34.4 150.8 -1.6 8.1 15.0 6.3 8.7 271.4

279.3 96.7 34.5 148.1 -3.0 9.4 21.4 9.0 12.5 264.2

285.9 92.5 36.4 156.9 7.6 9.4 23.2 9.9 13.3 279.7

302.0 96.0 37.2 168.8 -0.3 9.2 21.0 11.9 9.1 289.8

1170.2 389.6 144.7 635.9 6.7 33.8 81.4 43.1 38.2 1129.2

1118.5 371.5 137.6 609.4 2.6 35.0 71.9 33.8 38.1 1084.2

1146.9 379.8 142.4 624.7 2.6 36.1 80.5 37.1 43.5 1105.1

Secondary Inventory Withdrawals ..... Waste Coal (a) ................................. Total Supply ........................................

5.0 3.6 291.1

-7.6 3.6 266.9

8.6 3.9 300.8

-26.9 3.7 264.4

2.9 3.7 272.2

-4.1 3.7 258.7

17.8 3.7 296.9

-15.6 3.7 272.4

1.3 3.7 276.5

-4.1 3.7 263.8

17.9 3.7 301.3

-15.6 3.7 277.9

-20.8 14.9 1123.3

1.0 15.0 1100.2

-0.5 15.0 1119.5

Consumption (million short tons) Coke Plants ..................................... Electric Power Sector (b) .................. Retail and Other Industry .................. Residential and Commercial .......... Other Industrial ............................. Total Consumption .............................

5.5 262.9 15.1 1.0 14.0 283.4

5.6 248.2 14.6 0.7 13.8 268.4

5.8 279.4 14.3 0.7 13.6 299.5

5.8 250.8 14.9 1.0 13.8 271.5

5.3 253.8 13.1 1.0 12.1 272.2

5.2 241.6 11.9 0.6 11.3 258.7

4.8 279.9 12.2 0.6 11.6 296.9

4.9 254.0 13.5 1.0 12.5 272.4

4.8 258.4 13.3 0.9 12.3 276.5

4.9 246.3 12.7 0.6 12.1 263.8

4.6 283.8 12.9 0.6 12.3 301.3

4.7 259.5 13.7 1.0 12.7 277.9

22.7 1041.3 58.8 3.6 55.3 1122.9

20.2 1029.3 50.7 3.2 47.4 1100.2

19.1 1048.0 52.5 3.1 49.3 1119.5

7.7

-1.4

1.3

-7.4

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.0

0.0

End-of-period Inventories (million short tons) Primary Inventories (d) ...................... 32.5 Secondary Inventories (e) ................ 153.6 Electric Power Sector .................... 147.0 Retail and General Industry ........... 4.8 Coke Plants .................................. 1.5

31.4 161.3 154.0 5.0 1.8

30.2 152.6 144.9 5.2 2.0

27.3 179.5 171.5 5.5 2.1

28.9 176.6 168.8 5.4 2.0

31.9 180.7 172.6 5.7 2.0

24.3 162.9 154.3 6.0 2.1

24.7 178.5 169.8 6.2 2.1

26.2 177.2 168.7 6.1 2.0

29.3 181.3 172.6 6.3 2.0

21.7 163.4 154.3 6.5 2.1

22.0 179.0 169.8 6.7 2.0

27.3 179.5 171.5 5.5 2.1

24.7 178.5 169.8 6.2 2.1

22.0 179.0 169.8 6.7 2.0

6.27

6.27

6.27

6.17

6.00

6.00

6.00

6.00

5.90

5.90

5.90

5.90

6.24

6.00

5.90

0.302

0.303

0.298

0.200

0.154

0.182

0.203

0.215

0.209

0.211

0.220

0.196

0.276

0.189

0.209

1.91

2.04

2.15

2.13

2.05

2.08

2.07

2.05

2.06

2.10

2.11

2.07

2.06

2.06

2.09

Discrepancy (c)

Coal Market Indicators Coal Miner Productivity (Tons per hour) ............................. Total Raw Steel Production (Million short tons per day) ............ Cost of Coal to Electric Utilities (Dollars per million Btu) .................

- = no data available (a) Waste coal includes waste coal and cloal slurry reprocessed into briquettes. (b) Coal used for electricity generation and (a limited amount of) useful thermal output by electric utilities and independent power producers. (c) The discrepancy reflects an unaccounted-for shipper and receiver reporting difference, assumed to be zero in the forecast period. (d) Primary stocks are held at the mines, generation plants, and distribution points. (e) Secondary stocks are held by users. It includes an estimate of stocks held at utility plants sold to nonutility generators. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data : Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Quarterly Coal Report , DOE/EIA-0121; and Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7a. U.S. Electricity Industry Overview Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st 2nd Electricity Supply (billion kilowatthours per day) Electricity Generation .................... 11.14 11.02 Electric Power Sector (a) ............ 10.73 10.63 Industrial Sector ......................... 0.38 0.37 Commercial Sector ..................... 0.02 0.02 Net Imports ................................. 0.09 0.09 Total Supply .................................. 11.23 11.11 Losses and Unaccounted for (b) ... 0.64 0.85 Electricity Consumption (billion kilowatthours per day) Retail Sales .................................. 10.21 9.88 Residential Sector ...................... 3.96 3.37 Commercial Sector ..................... 3.50 3.66 Industrial Sector ......................... 2.73 2.83 Transportation Sector ................. 0.02 0.02 Direct Use (c) ................................ 0.38 0.37 Total Consumption ....................... 10.60 10.25 Prices Power Generation Fuel Costs (dollars per million Btu) Coal ........................................... 1.91 2.04 Natural Gas ............................... 8.67 11.12 Residual Fuel Oil ........................ 13.34 15.07 Distillate Fuel Oil ........................ 18.89 24.18 End-Use Prices (cents per kilowatthour) Residential Sector ...................... 10.3 11.4 Commercial Sector ..................... 9.6 10.3 Industrial Sector ......................... 6.4 7.0

2009

2010 2008

Year 2009

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2010

12.23 11.83 0.38 0.02 0.13 12.36 0.64

10.58 10.21 0.35 0.02 0.07 10.66 0.73

10.89 10.47 0.40 0.02 0.09 10.98 0.61

10.86 10.44 0.39 0.02 0.07 10.93 0.88

12.45 12.01 0.42 0.02 0.09 12.54 0.78

10.65 10.24 0.40 0.02 0.04 10.70 0.72

11.03 10.61 0.40 0.02 0.06 11.09 0.63

11.03 10.62 0.39 0.02 0.06 11.09 0.91

12.64 12.20 0.41 0.03 0.08 12.73 0.81

10.81 10.40 0.39 0.02 0.04 10.85 0.74

11.25 10.85 0.37 0.02 0.10 11.34 0.72

11.22 10.79 0.40 0.02 0.07 11.29 0.75

11.38 10.96 0.40 0.02 0.06 11.44 0.77

11.34 4.37 4.13 2.82 0.02 0.38 11.72

9.56 3.38 3.55 2.61 0.02 0.36 9.92

9.98 3.93 3.47 2.55 0.02 0.39 10.37

9.66 3.35 3.64 2.66 0.02 0.39 10.05

11.34 4.48 4.13 2.71 0.02 0.41 11.76

9.58 3.43 3.57 2.56 0.02 0.41 9.98

10.07 3.94 3.55 2.55 0.02 0.40 10.47

9.80 3.41 3.72 2.66 0.02 0.39 10.19

11.51 4.56 4.22 2.71 0.02 0.41 11.92

9.71 3.49 3.65 2.56 0.02 0.40 10.12

10.25 3.77 3.71 2.75 0.02 0.37 10.62

10.14 3.80 3.70 2.62 0.02 0.40 10.54

10.27 3.85 3.79 2.62 0.02 0.40 10.68

2.15 9.78 17.47 25.11

2.13 6.70 10.43 15.00

2.05 5.70 6.92 10.88

2.08 5.02 6.49 11.00

2.07 4.71 6.29 10.60

2.05 5.12 6.58 10.82

2.06 5.95 6.75 11.11

2.10 5.71 6.88 12.23

2.11 5.60 7.28 12.80

2.07 6.12 8.03 13.48

2.06 9.18 14.32 20.79

2.06 5.08 6.56 10.82

2.09 5.81 7.24 12.41

12.0 11.0 7.6

11.4 10.3 7.0

10.8 10.0 6.7

11.8 10.5 7.0

12.2 11.0 7.5

11.6 10.4 7.1

11.0 10.2 6.8

12.0 10.7 7.2

12.4 11.3 7.7

11.8 10.6 7.2

11.3 10.3 7.0

11.6 10.5 7.1

11.8 10.7 7.2

- = no data available (a) Electric utilities and independent power producers. (b) Includes transmission and distribution losses, data collection time-frame differences, and estimation error. (c) Direct Use represents commercial and industrial facility use of onsite net electricity generation; and electrical sales or transfers to adjacent or colocated facilities for which revenue information is not available. See Table 7.6 of the EIA Monthly Energy Review . Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7b. U.S. Regional Electricity Retail Sales (Million Kilowatthours per Day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Residential Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ................ W. N. Central ............... S. Atlantic ..................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central ............... Mountain ...................... Pacific contiguous ....... AK and HI ..................... Total .......................... Commercial Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ................ W. N. Central ............... S. Atlantic ..................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central ............... Mountain ...................... Pacific contiguous ....... AK and HI ..................... Total .......................... Industrial Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ................ W. N. Central ............... S. Atlantic ..................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central ............... Mountain ...................... Pacific contiguous ....... AK and HI ..................... Total .......................... Total All Sectors (a) New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ................ W. N. Central ............... S. Atlantic ..................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central ............... Mountain ...................... Pacific contiguous ....... AK and HI ..................... Total ..........................

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

140 387 575 316 949 354 528 249 447 16 3,960

113 319 439 238 857 280 523 227 362 14 3,372

138 409 562 309 1,105 382 711 323 417 13 4,368

122 336 487 256 832 280 447 227 379 15 3,382

142 394 566 302 943 347 518 248 450 16 3,926

115 320 449 239 831 278 512 235 355 14 3,349

140 421 590 323 1,122 392 736 328 416 14 4,482

126 339 485 254 836 282 476 232 386 15 3,430

140 389 565 299 963 349 517 250 451 16 3,939

114 321 455 244 847 285 523 240 362 14 3,405

139 422 598 329 1,143 401 752 337 423 14 4,558

125 340 491 258 852 289 487 237 393 15 3,488

128 363 516 280 936 324 553 256 401 14 3,771

131 368 522 280 933 325 561 261 402 15 3,797

130 368 527 283 952 331 570 266 407 15 3,848

154 452 501 261 781 217 432 239 445 17 3,500

150 437 531 259 839 228 487 256 457 17 3,663

168 498 618 290 929 262 549 288 510 17 4,129

151 433 528 257 792 215 441 251 464 18 3,549

156 450 516 255 766 215 418 240 441 17 3,474

152 439 528 260 823 230 473 262 451 17 3,635

170 500 592 295 935 268 550 293 506 17 4,126

152 436 520 258 799 220 449 253 462 18 3,567

159 458 526 261 785 219 428 248 450 18 3,552

155 447 538 267 843 235 485 270 460 17 3,717

174 509 603 302 958 274 563 303 516 18 4,219

155 444 529 264 818 225 460 261 472 18 3,647

156 455 545 267 835 231 478 259 469 17 3,711

158 456 539 267 831 233 473 262 465 17 3,702

161 464 549 274 851 238 484 271 475 18 3,785

60 198 580 230 410 370 458 200 213 14 2,732

63 203 564 235 435 363 499 221 229 14 2,829

65 204 546 245 427 349 486 234 248 14 2,820

61 192 496 234 400 354 426 207 224 14 2,608

57 190 502 222 385 347 450 198 191 14 2,554

59 194 510 232 406 349 474 218 202 14 2,658

61 200 511 243 410 343 482 231 217 15 2,712

58 189 485 232 386 350 446 205 194 14 2,560

57 188 497 226 381 350 451 203 188 14 2,553

58 192 505 235 402 353 475 224 198 14 2,656

60 198 505 247 407 347 483 237 213 15 2,711

57 187 480 235 383 354 446 211 191 14 2,559

62 199 546 236 418 359 467 216 229 14 2,747

59 193 502 232 397 347 463 213 201 14 2,621

58 192 497 236 393 351 464 219 198 14 2,620

355 1,048 1,658 807 2,144 941 1,418 688 1,107 47 10,214

328 970 1,536 732 2,135 871 1,510 705 1,051 45 9,883

372 1,122 1,727 843 2,465 994 1,747 845 1,177 45 11,338

336 972 1,514 748 2,027 849 1,315 685 1,069 46 9,560

356 1,045 1,586 779 2,098 909 1,386 686 1,084 46 9,977

328 964 1,488 732 2,064 857 1,460 715 1,011 45 9,662

373 1,132 1,693 861 2,471 1,002 1,768 853 1,141 46 11,341

337 975 1,491 744 2,025 852 1,372 690 1,045 47 9,577

357 1,047 1,590 786 2,133 918 1,396 701 1,091 47 10,066

329 971 1,499 746 2,096 873 1,482 735 1,023 45 9,799

375 1,141 1,707 878 2,511 1,022 1,798 877 1,155 47 11,510

338 982 1,502 758 2,056 868 1,393 709 1,059 47 9,714

348 1,028 1,609 783 2,193 914 1,498 731 1,101 46 10,250

348 1,029 1,565 779 2,165 905 1,497 736 1,070 46 10,141

350 1,035 1,575 792 2,200 920 1,518 756 1,082 47 10,275

- = no data available (a) Total retail sales to all sectors includes residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sector sales. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Retail Sales represents total retail electricity sales by electric utilities and power marketers. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7c. U.S. Regional Electricity Prices (Cents per Kilowatthour) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Residential Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central .............. S. Atlantic .................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... U.S. Average ............ Commercial Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central .............. S. Atlantic .................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... U.S. Average ............ Industrial Sector New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central .............. S. Atlantic .................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... U.S. Average ............ All Sectors (a) New England ............... Middle Atlantic ............. E. N. Central ............... W. N. Central .............. S. Atlantic .................... E. S. Central ................ W. S. Central .............. Mountain ..................... Pacific ......................... U.S. Average ............

2nd

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

16.6 13.7 9.5 7.6 9.9 8.2 10.5 8.9 11.3 10.3

17.4 15.2 10.7 9.0 10.7 9.2 12.0 10.1 11.7 11.4

18.0 16.5 10.8 9.5 11.3 9.6 12.7 10.5 12.9 12.0

18.2 14.4 10.7 8.5 10.9 9.8 11.9 9.6 11.9 11.4

17.6 14.1 10.0 8.0 10.4 8.7 10.7 9.2 11.6 10.8

18.0 15.4 11.1 9.3 11.2 9.6 11.9 10.2 12.3 11.8

18.1 16.4 11.2 9.7 11.6 9.6 12.4 10.5 13.4 12.2

18.1 15.0 10.7 8.5 11.2 9.4 11.8 9.7 12.3 11.6

18.0 14.5 10.1 8.1 10.6 8.8 11.1 9.3 11.7 11.0

18.4 15.8 11.2 9.4 11.5 9.7 12.3 10.4 12.4 12.0

18.5 16.8 11.3 9.8 11.8 9.7 12.8 10.7 13.6 12.4

18.4 15.4 10.8 8.7 11.4 9.6 12.2 9.9 12.5 11.8

17.6 15.0 10.4 8.6 10.7 9.2 11.9 9.8 12.0 11.3

18.0 15.2 10.7 8.9 11.1 9.3 11.8 10.0 12.4 11.6

18.3 15.6 10.9 9.0 11.3 9.4 12.2 10.1 12.5 11.8

14.7 12.9 8.8 6.4 8.8 8.2 9.4 7.7 10.0 9.6

15.5 14.2 8.9 7.3 9.1 8.7 10.3 8.6 11.4 10.3

16.1 15.8 9.0 7.8 9.8 9.2 10.9 8.9 12.7 11.0

15.8 13.5 8.9 6.8 9.6 9.5 10.0 8.2 11.3 10.3

15.5 13.3 8.9 6.6 9.2 8.6 9.6 8.1 10.8 10.0

15.7 14.3 9.3 7.4 9.4 9.0 10.0 8.6 11.9 10.5

16.4 15.8 9.4 7.9 9.8 9.1 10.3 8.8 13.4 11.0

15.8 14.1 9.2 6.9 9.6 9.1 10.0 8.4 11.5 10.4

15.7 13.6 9.0 6.7 9.4 9.0 10.0 8.2 11.0 10.2

15.9 14.6 9.4 7.5 9.5 9.4 10.4 8.8 12.1 10.7

16.5 16.2 9.6 8.0 9.8 9.5 10.8 9.0 13.5 11.3

15.9 14.5 9.3 7.0 9.8 9.5 10.5 8.6 11.7 10.6

15.5 14.2 8.9 7.1 9.3 8.9 10.2 8.4 11.4 10.3

15.9 14.4 9.2 7.2 9.5 8.9 10.0 8.5 12.0 10.5

16.0 14.8 9.3 7.3 9.6 9.3 10.4 8.6 12.1 10.7

12.8 8.0 5.9 4.9 5.8 5.0 7.3 5.6 7.5 6.4

13.2 8.6 6.3 5.3 6.1 5.6 8.3 6.1 7.9 7.0

13.8 8.8 6.7 5.9 6.8 6.3 9.0 6.7 8.8 7.6

13.8 8.1 6.5 5.2 6.4 6.1 8.1 5.8 7.9 7.0

13.4 8.2 6.3 5.1 6.0 5.2 7.5 5.7 7.9 6.7

13.3 8.5 6.4 5.5 6.2 5.8 7.9 6.1 8.2 7.0

13.7 9.0 6.8 6.0 6.9 6.3 8.4 6.7 9.1 7.5

13.7 8.4 6.5 5.2 6.5 5.7 8.1 6.0 8.4 7.1

13.6 8.5 6.4 5.2 6.2 5.4 7.8 5.9 7.9 6.8

13.5 8.8 6.6 5.6 6.4 6.0 8.1 6.3 8.2 7.2

13.9 9.2 6.9 6.1 7.0 6.5 8.6 6.8 9.1 7.7

13.9 8.7 6.6 5.3 6.6 5.9 8.4 6.2 8.4 7.2

13.4 8.4 6.3 5.3 6.3 5.7 8.2 6.1 8.1 7.0

13.5 8.6 6.5 5.4 6.4 5.7 8.0 6.2 8.4 7.1

13.7 8.8 6.6 5.5 6.6 5.9 8.2 6.3 8.5 7.2

15.1 12.2 8.0 6.4 8.7 6.9 9.1 7.5 10.0 9.0

15.7 13.3 8.5 7.2 9.1 7.6 10.2 8.3 10.7 9.7

16.4 14.8 8.8 7.9 10.0 8.3 11.1 8.9 12.0 10.5

16.3 12.7 8.7 6.9 9.5 8.2 10.0 7.9 10.8 9.8

16.0 12.6 8.4 6.7 9.2 7.3 9.3 7.8 10.6 9.4

16.1 13.5 8.9 7.4 9.5 7.9 10.0 8.4 11.3 10.0

16.6 14.8 9.2 8.0 10.1 8.3 10.6 8.9 12.6 10.6

16.2 13.3 8.8 6.9 9.7 7.8 10.0 8.2 11.2 9.9

16.2 13.0 8.6 6.8 9.4 7.6 9.7 7.9 10.7 9.6

16.3 13.8 9.0 7.5 9.7 8.1 10.4 8.5 11.4 10.2

16.8 15.2 9.4 8.2 10.3 8.5 11.0 9.1 12.7 10.9

16.5 13.7 8.9 7.0 9.9 8.1 10.4 8.3 11.4 10.2

15.9 13.3 8.5 7.1 9.3 7.8 10.2 8.2 10.9 9.8

16.2 13.6 8.8 7.3 9.7 7.9 10.0 8.3 11.5 10.0

16.5 13.9 9.0 7.4 9.8 8.1 10.4 8.5 11.6 10.2

- = no data available (a) Volume-weighted average of retail prices to residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation sectors. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7d. U.S. Electricity Generation by Fuel and Sector (Billion Kilowatthours per day) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 Electric Power Sector (a) Coal ............................................. Natural Gas .................................. Other Gases ................................ Petroleum .................................... Residual Fuel Oil ....................... Distillate Fuel Oil ....................... Petroleum Coke ........................ Other Petroleum ....................... Nuclear ........................................ Pumped Storage Hydroelectric ..... Other Fuels (b) ............................. Renewables: Conventional Hydroelectric ........ Geothermal ............................... Solar ......................................... Wind ......................................... Wood and Wood Waste ............ Other Renewables .................... Subtotal Electric Power Sector ..... Commercial Sector (c) Coal ............................................. Natural Gas .................................. Petroleum .................................... Other Fuels (b) ............................. Renewables (d) ............................ Subtotal Commercial Sector ......... Industrial Sector (c) Coal ............................................. Natural Gas .................................. Other Gases ................................ Petroleum .................................... Other Fuels (b) ............................. Renewables: Conventional Hydroelectric ........ Wood and Wood Waste ............ Other Renewables (e) ............... Subtotal Industrial Sector ............. Total All Sectors ...........................

2009

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

5.561 1.899 0.016 0.115 0.053 0.022 0.035 0.004 2.201 -0.018 0.019

5.163 2.061 0.015 0.119 0.065 0.018 0.032 0.003 2.114 -0.012 0.022

5.716 2.772 0.012 0.122 0.070 0.015 0.034 0.003 2.324 -0.021 0.019

5.150 1.941 0.008 0.118 0.056 0.016 0.044 0.002 2.157 -0.017 0.018

0.710 0.038 0.001 0.122 0.030 0.038 10.733

0.885 0.041 0.003 0.146 0.026 0.041 10.625

0.682 0.041 0.003 0.089 0.031 0.039 11.830

0.005 0.013 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.024

0.004 0.011 0.000 0.002 0.005 0.023

0.046 0.208 0.028 0.008 0.009 0.009 0.075 0.002 0.385 11.142

1st

2nd

2010 3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

5.418 1.753 0.011 0.163 0.061 0.022 0.076 0.004 2.209 -0.016 0.022

5.082 2.062 0.011 0.158 0.060 0.019 0.078 0.002 2.138 -0.015 0.022

5.748 3.043 0.011 0.181 0.075 0.019 0.085 0.003 2.275 -0.017 0.024

5.267 1.968 0.014 0.155 0.061 0.018 0.074 0.002 2.110 -0.017 0.022

5.398 2.169 0.013 0.119 0.061 0.018 0.036 0.003 2.199 -0.017 0.019

5.303 2.164 0.011 0.143 0.059 0.018 0.063 0.002 2.209 -0.016 0.022

5.379 2.209 0.012 0.165 0.064 0.019 0.078 0.003 2.183 -0.016 0.023

0.596 0.043 0.001 0.140 0.030 0.043 10.236

0.756 0.043 0.002 0.172 0.031 0.043 10.608

0.846 0.042 0.004 0.198 0.028 0.044 10.619

0.666 0.043 0.003 0.149 0.032 0.045 12.205

0.608 0.043 0.001 0.150 0.030 0.044 10.396

0.715 0.040 0.002 0.124 0.029 0.039 10.850

0.684 0.043 0.002 0.156 0.030 0.042 10.792

0.718 0.043 0.003 0.167 0.030 0.044 10.960

0.003 0.013 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.025

0.003 0.012 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.022

0.003 0.013 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.023

0.003 0.011 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.023

0.004 0.014 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.025

0.003 0.012 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.023

0.004 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.023

0.003 0.012 0.001 0.002 0.004 0.023

0.003 0.013 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.023

0.040 0.215 0.032 0.010 0.009

0.042 0.237 0.031 0.010 0.008

0.040 0.223 0.023 0.012 0.009

0.041 0.222 0.030 0.012 0.009

0.040 0.214 0.032 0.010 0.009

0.042 0.233 0.030 0.010 0.008

0.041 0.218 0.023 0.012 0.009

0.048 0.200 0.027 0.008 0.008

0.042 0.222 0.029 0.011 0.009

0.041 0.222 0.029 0.011 0.009

0.007 0.078 0.002 0.394 10.856

0.003 0.084 0.002 0.417 12.449

0.004 0.083 0.002 0.396 10.654

0.009 0.078 0.002 0.403 11.034

0.007 0.078 0.002 0.392 11.033

0.003 0.083 0.002 0.413 12.643

0.004 0.082 0.002 0.391 10.810

0.005 0.075 0.002 0.373 11.245

0.006 0.081 0.002 0.401 11.216

0.006 0.080 0.002 0.400 11.383

2nd

3rd

4th

5.339 1.779 0.011 0.138 0.064 0.021 0.051 0.003 2.229 -0.016 0.021

5.005 2.038 0.011 0.126 0.054 0.017 0.053 0.002 2.164 -0.015 0.022

5.691 2.923 0.011 0.157 0.069 0.018 0.069 0.002 2.303 -0.018 0.024

5.175 1.905 0.010 0.149 0.050 0.017 0.080 0.002 2.138 -0.016 0.022

0.585 0.041 0.001 0.140 0.027 0.038 10.209

0.698 0.043 0.001 0.160 0.031 0.040 10.475

0.790 0.042 0.004 0.185 0.028 0.042 10.439

0.655 0.043 0.003 0.138 0.032 0.044 12.007

0.004 0.012 0.000 0.002 0.005 0.023

0.003 0.011 0.000 0.002 0.004 0.020

0.003 0.012 0.001 0.001 0.004 0.022

0.003 0.011 0.001 0.002 0.005 0.022

0.048 0.195 0.030 0.007 0.008

0.050 0.205 0.028 0.008 0.007

0.047 0.191 0.021 0.008 0.009

0.045 0.215 0.029 0.010 0.009

0.006 0.074 0.002 0.371 11.020

0.003 0.077 0.002 0.380 12.234

0.003 0.074 0.002 0.354 10.583

0.009 0.077 0.002 0.396 10.893

1st

- = no data available (a) Electric utilities and independent power producers. (b) "Other" includes non-biogenic municipal solid waste, batteries, chemicals, hydrogen, pitch, purchased steam, sulfur, tires and miscellaneous technologies. (c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants. (d) "Renewables" in commercial sector includes wood, black liquor, other wood waste, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind. (e) "Other Renewables" in industrial sector includes black liquor, biogenic municipal solid waste, landfill gas, sludge waste, agriculture byproducts, other biomass, geothermal, solar thermal, photovoltaic energy and wind. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Values of 0.000 may indicate positive levels of generation that are less than 0.0005 billion kilowatthours per day. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 7e. U.S. Fuel Consumption for Electricity Generation by Sector Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Electric Power Sector (a) Coal (mmst/d) ........................... Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. Residual Fuel Oil (mmb/d) ..... Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb/d) ..... Petroleum Coke (mmst/d) ...... Other Petroleum (mmb/d) ...... Commercial Sector (c) Coal (mmst/d) ........................... Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. Industrial Sector (c) Coal (mmst/d) ........................... Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) .............. Total All Sectors Coal (mmst/d) ........................... Natural Gas (bcf/d) .................... Petroleum (mmb/d) (b) ..............

2nd

2010

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

2.88 14.78 0.21 0.09 0.04 0.07 0.01

2.72 16.76 0.22 0.11 0.03 0.07 0.01

3.03 22.52 0.22 0.12 0.03 0.07 0.00

2.71 15.37 0.21 0.10 0.03 0.08 0.00

2.81 14.00 0.25 0.11 0.04 0.10 0.01

2.65 16.43 0.23 0.09 0.03 0.11 0.00

3.04 23.75 0.30 0.12 0.04 0.14 0.00

2.76 15.09 0.28 0.09 0.03 0.16 0.00

2.87 13.83 0.31 0.10 0.04 0.15 0.01

2.70 16.66 0.30 0.10 0.04 0.15 0.00

3.08 24.78 0.34 0.13 0.04 0.17 0.00

2.82 15.62 0.29 0.10 0.03 0.15 0.00

2.83 17.37 0.21 0.10 0.03 0.07 0.01

2.81 17.34 0.27 0.10 0.04 0.13 0.00

2.87 17.75 0.31 0.11 0.04 0.16 0.00

0.00 0.11 0.00

0.00 0.09 0.00

0.00 0.10 0.00

0.00 0.10 0.00

0.00 0.14 0.00

0.00 0.12 0.00

0.00 0.15 0.00

0.00 0.13 0.00

0.00 0.14 0.00

0.00 0.13 0.00

0.00 0.15 0.00

0.00 0.14 0.00

0.00 0.10 0.00

0.00 0.14 0.00

0.00 0.14 0.00

0.02 1.59 0.01

0.02 1.51 0.01

0.02 1.56 0.01

0.02 1.60 0.01

0.02 2.12 0.02

0.02 2.13 0.02

0.02 2.34 0.02

0.02 2.20 0.02

0.02 2.21 0.02

0.02 2.11 0.02

0.02 2.30 0.02

0.02 2.15 0.02

0.02 1.56 0.01

0.02 2.20 0.02

0.02 2.19 0.02

2.90 16.49 0.22

2.74 18.36 0.23

3.05 24.18 0.23

2.74 17.07 0.23

2.83 16.26 0.27

2.67 18.69 0.25

3.06 26.24 0.32

2.78 17.42 0.31

2.89 16.18 0.33

2.72 18.90 0.32

3.10 27.23 0.36

2.84 17.92 0.32

2.86 19.03 0.23

2.83 19.67 0.29

2.89 20.08 0.33

End-of-period Fuel Inventories Held by Electric Power Sector Coal (mmst) .............................. 147.0 154.0 144.9 Residual Fuel Oil (mmb) ............ 22.9 23.9 22.3 Distillate Fuel Oil (mmb) ............ 16.9 15.7 15.9 Petroleum Coke (mmb) ............. 3.4 3.8 3.8

171.5 22.7 16.5 4.4

168.8 21.5 15.9 4.7

172.6 22.7 15.9 4.7

154.3 20.5 16.0 4.9

169.8 22.5 16.6 5.1

168.7 21.6 15.9 5.1

172.6 22.4 15.9 4.9

154.3 20.7 15.9 5.1

169.8 22.1 16.4 4.7

171.5 22.7 16.5 4.4

169.8 22.5 16.6 5.1

169.8 22.1 16.4 4.7

- = no data available (a) Electric utilities and independent power producers. (b) Petroleum category may include petroleum coke, which is converted from short tons to barrels by multiplying by 5. (c) Commercial and industrial sectors include electricity output from combined heat and power (CHP) facilities and some electric-only plants. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Physical Units: mmst/d = million short tons per day; mmb/d = million barrels per day; bcf/d = billion cubic feet per day; mmb = million barrels. Values of 0.00 may indicate positive levels of fuel consumption that are less than 0.005 units per day. Historical data: Latest data available from Energy Information Administration databases supporting the following reports:Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226; and Electric Power Annual , DOE/EIA-0348. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 8. U.S. Renewable Energy Supply and Consumption (Quadrillion Btu) Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st Supply Hydroelectric Power (a) ............... Geothermal ................................. Solar ............................................. Wind ............................................. Wood ............................................ Biofuels and Biomass ................... Other Renewables ....................... Total .......................................... Consumption Electric Power Sector Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ Geothermal .............................. Solar .......................................... Wind .......................................... Wood ......................................... Other Renewables .................... Subtotal .................................. Industrial Sector Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ Geothermal .............................. Wood and Wood Waste ........... Other Renewables .................... Subtotal .................................. Commercial Sector Hydroelectric Power (a) ............ Geothermal .............................. Wood and Wood Waste ........... Other Renewables .................... Subtotal .................................. Residential Sector Geothermal .............................. Wood .......................................... Solar .......................................... Subtotal .................................. Transportation Sector Biofuels (b) ................................. Total Consumption ........................

2nd

2009 3rd

2010

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

Year 2009

2010

0.648 0.085 0.022 0.110 0.475 0.171 0.089 1.616

0.803 0.090 0.024 0.132 0.444 0.187 0.091 1.787

0.624 0.091 0.023 0.082 0.433 0.206 0.085 1.561

0.536 0.091 0.022 0.128 0.437 0.216 0.083 1.541

0.632 0.095 0.024 0.142 0.452 0.217 0.088 1.667

0.719 0.093 0.026 0.167 0.450 0.222 0.095 1.788

0.601 0.096 0.026 0.126 0.483 0.226 0.099 1.674

0.547 0.095 0.024 0.128 0.479 0.230 0.092 1.612

0.684 0.097 0.027 0.153 0.452 0.227 0.092 1.748

0.770 0.095 0.029 0.178 0.448 0.231 0.098 1.866

0.611 0.099 0.028 0.136 0.481 0.233 0.100 1.705

0.558 0.099 0.027 0.137 0.473 0.235 0.093 1.638

2.611 0.357 0.091 0.451 1.790 0.780 0.348 6.505

2.499 0.379 0.100 0.563 1.863 0.895 0.373 6.740

2.623 0.389 0.110 0.604 1.854 0.926 0.383 6.957

0.641 0.073 0.001 0.110 0.049 0.056 0.931

0.799 0.078 0.003 0.132 0.041 0.059 1.112

0.623 0.079 0.003 0.082 0.047 0.058 0.892

0.533 0.080 0.001 0.128 0.044 0.058 0.839

0.623 0.082 0.001 0.142 0.047 0.059 0.955

0.713 0.079 0.003 0.167 0.043 0.062 1.067

0.598 0.083 0.003 0.126 0.050 0.066 0.927

0.544 0.082 0.001 0.128 0.048 0.064 0.867

0.675 0.082 0.001 0.153 0.047 0.063 1.022

0.764 0.080 0.003 0.178 0.043 0.065 1.133

0.608 0.084 0.003 0.136 0.051 0.068 0.949

0.554 0.084 0.001 0.137 0.048 0.066 0.890

2.596 0.310 0.008 0.451 0.181 0.232 3.774

2.478 0.327 0.009 0.563 0.189 0.252 3.817

2.601 0.330 0.009 0.604 0.189 0.261 3.995

0.006 0.001 0.314 0.025 0.471

0.004 0.001 0.290 0.024 0.443

0.001 0.001 0.273 0.019 0.419

0.003 0.001 0.279 0.019 0.440

0.008 0.001 0.290 0.023 0.480

0.006 0.001 0.292 0.025 0.482

0.003 0.001 0.318 0.024 0.503

0.003 0.001 0.315 0.020 0.497

0.008 0.001 0.291 0.023 0.522

0.006 0.001 0.291 0.025 0.523

0.003 0.001 0.316 0.024 0.543

0.003 0.001 0.309 0.020 0.533

0.014 0.005 1.156 0.088 1.773

0.021 0.005 1.215 0.092 1.962

0.021 0.006 1.207 0.092 2.120

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.016

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.008 0.017

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.007 0.017

0.000 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.019

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.015

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.008 0.017

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.008 0.018

0.000 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.018

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.006 0.016

0.000 0.004 0.005 0.008 0.018

0.000 0.004 0.006 0.008 0.019

0.000 0.004 0.007 0.007 0.019

0.001 0.015 0.021 0.029 0.068

0.001 0.015 0.021 0.029 0.068

0.001 0.016 0.022 0.030 0.071

0.007 0.108 0.021 0.135

0.007 0.108 0.021 0.135

0.007 0.108 0.021 0.135

0.007 0.108 0.021 0.135

0.008 0.110 0.023 0.140

0.008 0.110 0.023 0.140

0.008 0.110 0.023 0.140

0.008 0.110 0.023 0.140

0.010 0.109 0.025 0.144

0.010 0.109 0.025 0.144

0.010 0.109 0.025 0.144

0.010 0.109 0.025 0.144

0.026 0.433 0.082 0.541

0.032 0.438 0.091 0.561

0.038 0.435 0.101 0.574

0.189

0.215

0.230

0.240

0.235

0.243

0.247

0.251

0.245

0.252

0.254

0.257

0.874

0.976

1.007

1.742

1.922

1.693

1.676

1.825

1.950

1.835

1.774

1.948

2.069

1.908

1.842

7.033

7.384

7.768

- = no data available (a) Conventional hydroelectric power only. Hydroelectricity generated by pumped storage is not included in renewable energy. (b) Fuel ethanol supply includes production but excludes imports, exports, and stock change. Fuel ethanol consumption in transportation sector represents total fuel ethanol blended into motor gasoline. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from EIA databases supporting the following reports: Electric Power Monthly , DOE/EIA-0226 and Renewable Energy Annual , DOE/EIA-0603; Petroleum Supply Monthly , DOE/EIA-0109. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Generated by simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9a. U.S. Macroeconomic Energy Indicators Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008

2009

2008

Year 2009

2010

11,763

11,657

11,338

11,590

9,105

9,109

8,758

9,003

9,063

1,431

1,492

1,558

1,721

1,428

1,466

-22.78

-10.56

2.05

8.62

-13.22

-47.04

-5.67

123.5

123.6

123.6

123.6

123.7

123.4

123.5

123.7

133.1

132.9

132.9

133.2

133.7

134.3

137.3

133.6

133.5

89.7

89.8

89.9

90.2

90.7

91.4

91.9

91.6

89.9

91.1

103.1 102.9 112.4 85.7

100.5 100.1 111.8 84.4

99.8 99.4 111.9 84.0

99.6 99.3 112.2 84.1

100.0 99.9 112.5 84.4

101.0 101.1 112.9 85.0

102.3 102.7 113.6 85.6

103.4 104.1 114.3 86.2

109.6 111.5 112.5 92.9

100.7 100.4 112.1 84.6

101.7 102.0 113.3 85.3

105.7 107.2 97.8 89.8 90.1 104.8 99.0

102.6 106.7 90.0 87.2 82.8 101.7 95.7

101.1 106.0 85.1 84.8 80.8 100.5 94.0

100.7 105.8 82.9 84.2 80.5 100.8 93.6

101.2 105.9 82.0 85.3 81.4 101.6 94.1

101.7 106.3 82.2 86.0 82.2 103.3 94.7

102.4 106.9 83.3 87.1 83.5 104.4 95.6

103.5 107.8 84.8 89.5 85.2 105.9 97.0

104.8 108.6 86.5 91.3 87.2 108.5 98.4

110.3 108.4 102.9 105.7 98.2 108.3 105.2

101.4 106.1 85.0 85.4 81.4 101.2 94.4

103.1 107.4 84.2 88.5 84.5 105.5 96.4

2.19

2.14

2.12

2.11

2.12

2.13

2.15

2.15

2.17

2.19

2.15

2.12

2.17

1.95

2.01

1.79

1.69

1.64

1.64

1.65

1.67

1.67

1.69

1.71

1.90

1.65

1.68

2.58

3.18

3.28

1.85

1.41

1.45

1.42

1.40

1.49

1.65

1.73

1.75

2.72

1.42

1.65

121.6

122.0

123.1

123.4

123.9

123.9

124.1

124.7

125.3

125.4

125.7

126.5

122.5

124.2

125.7

7,549

8,227

8,048

7,775

7,400

8,107

8,102

7,887

7,462

8,182

8,176

8,000

7,900

7,876

7,957

537

543

528

498

498

517

520

495

496

528

538

506

527

508

517

321

338

328

303

292

315

319

297

291

331

340

310

323

306

318

263.5

288.1

305.6

270.7

252.4

263.3

283.2

274.0

259.4

271.5

293.9

285.9

282.0

268.2

277.7

0.302

0.303

0.298

0.200

0.154

0.182

0.203

0.215

0.209

0.211

0.220

0.196

0.276

0.189

0.209

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

(billion chained 2000 dollars - SAAR) .......

11,646

11,727

11,712

11,543

Real Disposable Personal Income (billion chained 2000 Dollars - SAAR) .......

8,668

8,891

8,689

1,762

1,755

13.75

1st

2010

2nd

3rd

4th

11,372

11,309

11,316

11,354

8,783

8,967

9,006

9,022

1,731

1,634

1,532

1,437

-25.98

-25.63

-15.02

-49.86

123.1

123.2

123.3

123.4

137.9

137.7

137.3

92.0

91.9

Industrial Production Indices (Index, 2002=100) Total Industrial Production ............................ 112.3 Manufacturing ................................................ 114.8 Food ............................................................. 112.6 Paper ............................................................ 94.9 Chemicals ..................................................... Petroleum ...................................................... Stone, Clay, Glass ........................................ Primary Metals .............................................. Resins and Synthetic Products ..................... Agricultural Chemicals .................................. Natural Gas-weighted (a) .............................

1st

2nd

3rd

11,413

11,527

11,657

9,016

8,989

9,050

1,379

1,365

1,384

-56.72

-46.94

-34.64

123.5

123.5

123.5

136.1

134.7

133.7

91.7

90.9

90.1

111.3 113.7 112.7 94.9

108.8 111.1 111.9 93.2

105.9 106.5 112.9 88.6

113.8 110.6 105.9 113.9 104.9 109.9 109.5

113.1 110.5 104.6 110.3 105.4 110.5 108.5

108.5 105.2 103.5 109.0 92.5 108.0 103.6

2.13

2.15

1.85

4th

Macroeconomic Real Gross Domestic Product

Real Fixed Investment (billion chained 2000 dollars-SAAR) ......... Business Inventory Change (billion chained 2000 dollars-SAAR) ......... Housing Stock (millions) ...................................................... Non-Farm Employment (millions) ..................................................... Commercial Employment (millions) .....................................................

Price Indexes Consumer Price Index (index, 1982-1984=1.00) ............................. Producer Price Index: All Commodities (index, 1982=1.00) ...................................... Producer Price Index: Petroleum (index, 1982=1.00) ...................................... GDP Implicit Price Deflator (index, 2000=100) ....................................... Miscellaneous Vehicle Miles Traveled (b) (million miles/day) ....................................... Air Travel Capacity (Available ton-miles/day, thousands) ......... Aircraft Utilization (Revenue ton-miles/day, thousands) .......... Airline Ticket Price Index (index, 1982-1984=100) .............................. Raw Steel Production (million short tons per day) .........................

- = no data available (a) Natural gas share weights of individual sector indices based on EIAManufacturing Energy Consumption Survey, 2002. (b) Total highway travel includes gasoline and diesel fuel vehicles. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17; Federal Highway Administration; and Federal Aviation Administration. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy and Regional Economic Information and simulation of the EIA Regional Short-Term Energy Model.

Table 9b. U.S. Regional Macroeconomic Data Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Real Gross State Product (Billion $2000) New England ............... 640 645 645 637 Middle Atlantic ............. 1,792 1,803 1,800 1,773 E. N. Central ............... 1,633 1,642 1,633 1,611 W. N. Central .............. 731 736 735 725 S. Atlantic .................... 2,131 2,142 2,137 2,106 E. S. Central ................ 547 550 549 541 W. S. Central .............. 1,257 1,272 1,278 1,263 Mountain ..................... 761 768 765 754 Pacific ......................... 2,046 2,062 2,062 2,028 Industrial Output, Manufacturing (Index, Year 1997=100) New England ............... 109.7 109.1 106.9 102.5 Middle Atlantic ............. 106.9 105.8 103.2 99.2 E. N. Central ............... 111.1 109.9 107.4 102.7 W. N. Central .............. 123.1 122.0 119.2 114.3 S. Atlantic .................... 109.8 108.1 105.0 100.6 E. S. Central ................ 114.9 113.6 110.8 106.3 W. S. Central .............. 123.0 122.2 120.0 115.4 Mountain ..................... 127.5 126.3 123.2 118.5 Pacific ......................... 117.3 116.4 113.8 109.2 Real Personal Income (Billion $2000) New England ............... 575 575 569 578 Middle Atlantic ............. 1,549 1,552 1,533 1,555 E. N. Central ............... 1,427 1,432 1,413 1,433 W. N. Central .............. 630 632 625 634 S. Atlantic .................... 1,841 1,854 1,833 1,861 E. S. Central ................ 486 492 484 491 W. S. Central .............. 1,077 1,094 1,084 1,098 Mountain ..................... 645 647 639 649 Pacific ......................... 1,695 1,701 1,681 1,703 Households (Thousands) New England ............... 5,529 5,532 5,535 5,545 Middle Atlantic ............. 15,323 15,333 15,325 15,342 E. N. Central ............... 18,069 18,092 18,089 18,100 W. N. Central .............. 8,074 8,086 8,093 8,114 S. Atlantic .................... 22,483 22,546 22,605 22,687 E. S. Central ................ 7,080 7,096 7,108 7,129 W. S. Central .............. 12,607 12,647 12,685 12,739 Mountain ..................... 7,949 7,984 8,018 8,061 Pacific ......................... 17,136 17,176 17,203 17,256 Total Non-farm Employment (Millions) New England ............... 7.1 7.0 7.0 7.0 Middle Atlantic ............. 18.6 18.6 18.6 18.4 E. N. Central ............... 21.5 21.4 21.3 21.2 W. N. Central .............. 10.2 10.2 10.2 10.1 S. Atlantic .................... 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.1 E. S. Central ................ 7.8 7.8 7.8 7.7 W. S. Central .............. 15.2 15.3 15.3 15.2 Mountain ..................... 9.8 9.8 9.7 9.7 Pacific ......................... 20.8 20.7 20.7 20.5

2009

2010 2008

Year 2009

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

627 1,744 1,588 715 2,073 533 1,248 742 1,998

623 1,730 1,581 711 2,062 530 1,246 738 1,984

624 1,728 1,582 712 2,062 530 1,251 738 1,985

626 1,732 1,587 714 2,068 532 1,258 740 1,995

629 1,738 1,593 716 2,078 534 1,266 743 2,010

634 1,753 1,606 722 2,099 540 1,281 751 2,035

641 1,769 1,622 729 2,124 545 1,297 759 2,063

646 1,783 1,634 735 2,143 550 1,311 766 2,086

642 1,792 1,630 732 2,129 547 1,267 762 2,050

625 1,733 1,584 713 2,066 531 1,251 739 1,991

637 1,761 1,614 725 2,111 542 1,289 755 2,049

98.6 95.7 98.8 110.6 96.7 102.6 111.7 114.6 106.3

95.6 93.0 96.0 108.1 93.8 99.8 108.7 111.5 103.5

94.7 92.1 95.3 108.0 92.9 98.9 108.0 110.9 103.0

94.3 91.8 95.0 108.3 92.5 98.6 107.9 111.0 103.1

94.8 92.3 95.4 109.2 93.0 99.2 108.7 111.8 104.0

95.8 93.2 96.3 110.5 94.0 100.3 110.0 113.2 105.4

97.4 94.6 97.7 112.4 95.4 101.9 111.8 115.3 107.3

98.8 95.8 98.8 113.8 96.7 103.3 113.3 117.2 108.8

107.0 103.8 107.8 119.6 105.8 111.4 120.2 123.9 114.2

95.8 93.2 96.3 108.7 94.0 99.9 109.1 112.0 104.0

96.7 94.0 97.0 111.5 94.8 101.2 110.9 114.4 106.4

579 1,558 1,445 639 1,876 495 1,111 655 1,716

580 1,560 1,449 640 1,879 496 1,116 656 1,718

580 1,562 1,450 639 1,880 496 1,119 656 1,718

578 1,561 1,445 637 1,877 494 1,119 654 1,716

578 1,561 1,443 636 1,877 494 1,119 655 1,719

581 1,570 1,450 639 1,891 497 1,128 660 1,734

584 1,576 1,456 641 1,903 499 1,135 664 1,747

585 1,579 1,458 642 1,910 500 1,139 666 1,755

574 1,548 1,426 630 1,847 488 1,088 645 1,695

579 1,560 1,447 639 1,878 495 1,116 655 1,717

582 1,572 1,452 639 1,895 497 1,130 661 1,739

5,550 15,344 18,122 8,126 22,756 7,144 12,778 8,099 17,294

5,553 15,345 18,142 8,137 22,817 7,157 12,809 8,136 17,331

5,558 15,347 18,148 8,149 22,883 7,171 12,845 8,167 17,370

5,563 15,350 18,153 8,159 22,945 7,185 12,878 8,205 17,409

5,569 15,360 18,149 8,172 23,020 7,201 12,915 8,239 17,456

5,577 15,374 18,181 8,188 23,098 7,219 12,957 8,281 17,510

5,585 15,391 18,208 8,202 23,180 7,244 12,997 8,323 17,568

5,594 15,412 18,236 8,218 23,267 7,270 13,040 8,362 17,630

5,545 15,342 18,100 8,114 22,687 7,129 12,739 8,061 17,256

5,563 15,350 18,153 8,159 22,945 7,185 12,878 8,205 17,409

5,594 15,412 18,236 8,218 23,267 7,270 13,040 8,362 17,630

6.9 18.2 20.9 10.0 25.9 7.6 15.1 9.6 20.3

6.8 18.1 20.8 9.9 25.7 7.6 15.0 9.5 20.1

6.8 18.0 20.7 9.9 25.6 7.5 14.9 9.4 20.0

6.8 18.0 20.6 9.9 25.5 7.5 14.9 9.4 19.9

6.8 18.0 20.6 9.9 25.5 7.5 14.9 9.4 20.0

6.8 18.0 20.7 9.9 25.6 7.5 15.0 9.5 20.1

6.8 18.0 20.7 9.9 25.7 7.6 15.1 9.5 20.2

6.8 18.1 20.8 9.9 25.8 7.6 15.1 9.5 20.3

7.0 18.6 21.4 10.2 26.4 7.8 15.3 9.8 20.7

6.8 18.1 20.8 9.9 25.7 7.6 15.0 9.5 20.1

6.8 18.0 20.7 9.9 25.7 7.6 15.0 9.5 20.1

- = no data available Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis; Federal Reserve System, Statistical release G17. Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Macroeconomic projections are based on the Global Insight Model of the U.S. Economy.

2010

Table 9c. U.S. Regional Weather Data Energy Information Administration/Short-Term Energy Outlook - February 2009 2008 1st

2nd

Heating Degree-days New England ................ 3,114 861 Middle Atlantic .............. 2,814 674 E. N. Central ................. 3,365 777 W. N. Central ................ 3,540 852 South Atlantic ............... 1,452 234 E. S. Central ................. 1,914 283 W. S. Central ................ 1,212 101 Mountain ....................... 2,409 765 Pacific ........................... 1,496 543 U.S. Average ............ 2,251 528 Heating Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a) New England ................ 3,219 930 Middle Atlantic .............. 2,968 752 E. N. Central ................. 3,227 798 W. N. Central ................ 3,326 729 South Atlantic ............... 1,523 247 E. S. Central ................. 1,895 299 W. S. Central ................ 1,270 112 Mountain ....................... 2,321 741 Pacific ........................... 1,419 556 U.S. Average ............ 2,242 543 Cooling Degree-days New England ................ 0 105 Middle Atlantic .............. 0 204 E. N. Central ................. 0 198 W. N. Central ................ 0 229 South Atlantic ............... 122 626 E. S. Central ................. 17 501 W. S. Central ................ 81 890 Mountain ....................... 17 423 Pacific ........................... 6 187 U.S. Average ............ 35 385 Cooling Degree-days, 30-year Normal (a) New England ................ 0 81 Middle Atlantic .............. 0 151 E. N. Central ................. 1 208 W. N. Central ................ 3 270 South Atlantic ............... 113 576 E. S. Central ................. 29 469 W. S. Central ................ 80 790 Mountain ....................... 17 383 Pacific ........................... 10 171 U.S. Average ............ 34 353

2009 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

Year

2010 3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

2008

2009

2010

139 78 102 146 13 11 9 149 77 70

2,297 2,084 2,438 2,605 1,088 1,443 876 1,800 1,033 1,647

3,343 3,073 3,355 3,366 1,519 1,872 1,140 2,173 1,327 2,247

930 752 797 727 246 296 105 709 547 537

180 123 155 183 25 33 9 174 104 98

2,261 2,058 2,282 2,476 1,052 1,363 878 1,944 1,145 1,623

3,218 2,959 3,149 3,218 1,503 1,835 1,190 2,265 1,416 2,200

921 745 791 723 243 292 103 717 541 534

190 126 158 180 24 32 7 172 95 98

2,254 2,046 2,299 2,496 1,041 1,361 879 1,942 1,120 1,620

6,411 5,650 6,683 7,144 2,786 3,650 2,198 5,122 3,149 4,496

6,714 6,006 6,589 6,752 2,842 3,564 2,132 5,000 3,123 4,505

6,583 5,876 6,397 6,617 2,811 3,519 2,179 5,096 3,173 4,452

190 127 156 183 25 33 9 183 108 101

2,272 2,064 2,316 2,512 1,058 1,377 896 1,964 1,145 1,638

3,219 2,968 3,227 3,326 1,523 1,895 1,270 2,321 1,419 2,242

930 752 798 729 247 299 112 741 556 543

190 127 156 183 25 33 9 183 108 101

2,272 2,064 2,316 2,512 1,058 1,377 896 1,964 1,145 1,638

3,219 2,968 3,227 3,326 1,523 1,895 1,270 2,321 1,419 2,242

930 752 798 729 247 299 112 741 556 543

190 127 156 183 25 33 9 183 108 101

2,272 2,064 2,316 2,512 1,058 1,377 896 1,964 1,145 1,638

6,611 5,911 6,497 6,750 2,853 3,604 2,287 5,209 3,228 4,524

6,611 5,911 6,497 6,750 2,853 3,604 2,287 5,209 3,228 4,524

6,611 5,911 6,497 6,750 2,853 3,604 2,287 5,209 3,228 4,524

391 540 497 612 1,073 1,000 1,370 969 606 789

0 0 3 3 172 41 176 72 61 69

0 0 1 3 100 23 78 17 5 31

69 140 197 263 567 458 787 394 156 345

358 519 502 652 1,084 1,002 1,427 843 516 774

0 5 8 12 209 63 178 64 41 77

0 0 1 3 113 33 89 17 7 36

87 158 213 269 588 474 800 389 169 359

365 510 519 658 1,104 1,010 1,440 865 551 789

1 5 8 15 222 65 189 77 55 83

496 744 697 844 1,993 1,559 2,518 1,482 860 1,277

427 664 708 930 1,960 1,546 2,470 1,318 718 1,227

453 673 742 945 2,027 1,582 2,518 1,348 781 1,267

361 508 511 661 1,081 1,002 1,424 839 526 775

1 7 10 14 213 66 185 68 49 80

0 0 1 3 113 29 80 17 10 34

81 151 208 270 576 469 790 383 171 353

361 508 511 661 1,081 1,002 1,424 839 526 775

1 7 10 14 213 66 185 68 49 80

0 0 1 3 113 29 80 17 10 34

81 151 208 270 576 469 790 383 171 353

361 508 511 661 1,081 1,002 1,424 839 526 775

1 7 10 14 213 66 185 68 49 80

443 666 730 948 1,983 1,566 2,479 1,307 756 1,242

443 666 730 948 1,983 1,566 2,479 1,307 756 1,242

443 666 730 948 1,983 1,566 2,479 1,307 756 1,242

- = no data available (a) 30-year normal represents average over 1971 - 2000, reported by National Oceaenic and Atmospheric Administration. Notes: The approximate break between historical and forecast values is shown with historical data printed in bold; estimates and forecasts in italics. Regions refer to U.S. Census divisions. See "Census division" in EIA’s Energy Glossary (http://www.eia.doe.gov/glossary/index.html) for a list of States in each region. Historical data: Latest data available from U.S. Department of Commerce, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association (NOAA). Minor discrepancies with published historical data are due to independent rounding. Projections: Based on forecasts by the NOAA Climate Prediction Center.