Early Warning System

Early Warning System of Ciliwung River Floods The Houw Liong P.M.Siregar R.Gernowo H.Widodo

Outline • Rainfall-Runoff Model & MM-5 • Fuzzy Rules & ANFIS • Time Series of Sun Spot Numbers, Rainfall & Water Level === Weather/Climate Forecasting • System Dynamics • Conclusion

Rainfall-Runoff Model

Rainfall-Runoff Model

S . Venant’s Equations

MM-5 : Atmospheric Model

Solar activities & Climate Cloud detrainment

Microphysics

Cumulus

Cloud Effects Cloud Fraction

Solar and its activities

PBL Surface Flux SH,LH

Surface Emisi/albedo

Incoming SW,LW

Earth Surface

surface T,Qv,Wind

Sugeno Fuzzy Rules • For x is Ai and y is Bj then z is pi*x + qj*y + rij

Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference System layer 1 layer 2

layer 4

A1 ∏

w1

A2

N

B1

N ∏

B2

x y

layer 3

layer 5

w1 w2

w2

x y

ANFIS • •

• • •

Layer 1 :

O1,i   Ai ( x ),

for

i  1, 2, or

O1,i   Bi2 ( y ),

for

i  3, 4,

x and y are input of ode -i and O1,i is membership function of fuzzy set A=(A1,A2) and B=(B1 ,B2 ) with membership function A is :

µA ( x ) =

1

x −c i 1+ ai

• • •

2b

ai,bi, and ci are parameters Layer 2 : output as the product of input membership functions :

O 2,i = w 1 = µ Ai (x) µ Bi ( y) i = 1,2

• Layer 3 in node -i : •

wi O 3,i = w i = , i = 1,2 w1 + w 2

• Layer 4 : Node -i is adaptive node with function node :

O 4,i = w i f i = w i (p i x + q i y + ri )

ANFIS • Layer 5 : final output : •

O5 

 wi fi  i

w f w

i i

i

i

i

sspot 200

150

100

50

0

2012 2008 2004 2000 1996 1992 1988 1984 1980 1976 1972 1968 1964 1960 1956 1952 1948

sspot

100,00

50,00

0,00 E E

Years

sspot

LL E E

2002

2000

E L

1998

1996

L

1994

1992

1990

1988

E

1986

L

1984

1982

1980

E

1978

L

1976

1974

E

1972

1970

E L

1968

1966

1964

L

1962

150,00 E

1960

L

1958

1956

E

1954

L

1952

200,00

1950

1948

Sunspot Number

Elnino-Lanina Years L E

Sunspot/Precip

Pontianak Region Correlation Sunspot vs Precip =0.88 200.00

200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 -50.00

150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 2002

1999

ave-precip

1996

ave-sunspot

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

1969

1966

1963

1960

1957

1954

1951

1948

Years

mm/month

Jaya Pura 350.00 300.00 250.00 200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00

200.00 150.00 100.00 50.00 0.00 2002 1999 1996 1993 1990 1987 1984 1981 1978 1975 1972 1969 1966 1963 1960 1957 1954 1951 1948

Years Avg precip

sspot

250.00

200.00

200.00

150.00

150.00

100.00

100.00 50.00

50.00

0.00

0.00 1948 1951 1954 1957 1960 1963 1966 1969 1972 1975 1978 1981 1984 1987 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002

mm/month

Jakarta

Years Avg Precip

Avg-sspot

Fuzzy Clustering

ANFIS & Monthly Rainfall Ciliw ung Hilir Data Tahun Januari 1989 - December 2005

8

Data

6

4

2

0 Jan-89

Jan-91

Jan-93

Jan-95 Jan-97 Jan-99 Jan-01 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata

Jan-03

Jan-05

2

Jan-96 Jan-98 Jan-00 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata

Jan-02

Jan-04

Jul-02

Jan-06

Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04 Jul-04 Jan-05 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi Desember 2005 - Juni 2006 Data

4

Jan-94

2

8

Prediksi ANFIS

6

Jan-92

4

0 Jan-02

Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

Cuah Hujan (x 100 mm)

Data

Prediksi ANFIS

6

Jan-07

Ciliw ung Hulu Data Januari 1990 - Desember 2005 8

0 Jan-90

Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Desember 2005 - Juni 2006

8

Prediksi ANFIS Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

Cur Hujan (x100 mm)

Data

Prediksi ANFIS

6

4

2

0 Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04 Jan-05 Jumlah Bulanan Rata-Rata

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

ANFIS & Monthly Water Level TMA Depok Januari 1978 - Desember 2005

1.8 Data

1.3

Prediksi ANFIS

1.2 1.1

1.2

1

0.9

0.9

TMA(x100 cm)

TMA (x100 cm)

1.5

TMA Depok Prediksi Desember 2005 - Juni 2006 Data Prediksi ANFIS

0.6

0.8 0.7

0.3 0 Jan-78

0.6 Jan-82

Jan-86

Jan-90 Jan-94 Rerata Bulanan

Jan-98

Jan-02

Jan-06

0.5 Jan-03

Jul-03

Jan-04

Jul-04 Jan-05 Rerata Bulanan

Jul-05

Jan-06

Jul-06

ANFIS & PENTAD Rainfall Ciliw ung Hilir Tahun Januari 1989 - Desember 2005 2.5

Series1

Series2

Cur Huj (x100mm)

Cur. Hujan (x100mm)

3

2 1.5 1 0.5 0 5-Jan89

5-Jan91

5-Jan93

5-Jan95

5-Jan97

5-Jan99

5-Jan01

5-Jan03

5-Jan05

2 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.2 1 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0 1-Sep04

Ciliw ung Hilir Prediksi Desember 2005-Januari 2006 Series1

1-Nov04

Series2

1-Jan05

1-Mar05

PENTAD

Ciiliw ung Hulu Januari 1990-Januari 2006

Cur Huj (x100mm)

2.5

Data

1-Sep05

1-Nov05

1-Jan06

Ciliw ung Hulu Prediksi Januari 2006 - Februari 2006

2.5

Data

Prediksii ANFIS

1-May1-Jul-05 05 PENTAD

Prediksii ANFIS

2

2 1.5

1.5

1

1

0.5 0 5-Jan90

0.5

5-Sep91

5-May93

5-Jan95

5-Sep96

5-May98 PENTAD

5-Jan00

5-Sep01

5-May03

5-Jan05

0 5-J an-05

24-Feb-05

15-Apr-05

4-J un-05

24-J ul-05 P ENTAD

12-Sep-05

1-Nov-05

21-Dec-05

9-Feb-06

TMA Depok Januari 1978 - Januari 2006 2.00 Data Prediksi ANFIS 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.20 1.00 0.80 0.60 0.40 0.20 0.00 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan- 01-Jan78 81 84 87 90 93 96 99 02 05 PENTAD

1.70 1.50

TMA Depok Prediksi Januari 2006 - Februari 2006 Data

Prediksi ANFIS

1.30 TMA (x100 cm)

TMA (x100 cm)

ANFIS & PENTAD Water Level

1.10 0.90 0.70 0.50 03-Jun- 03-Aug- 03-Oct- 03-Dec- 03-Feb- 03-Apr- 03-Jun- 03-Aug- 03-Oct- 03-Dec- 03-Feb04 04 04 04 05 05 05 05 05 05 06 PENTAD

0

KELAS >55

>50-<=55

>45-<=50

>40-<=45

>35-<=40

>30-<=35

>25-<=30

>20-<=25

>15-<=20

>10-<=15

>5-<=10

0-<=5

PROB (%)

>55

>50-<=55

>45-<=50

>40-<=45

>35-<=40

>30-<=35

>25-<=30

>20-<=25

>15-<=20

>10-<=15

>5-<=10

0-<=5

PROB (%)

INTENSITY and Rainfall PROBABILITY INTENSITAS C.H. ( 1957 - 1988 ) JAKARTA (745 )

60

50

40

30

20

10

0

KELAS

INTENSITAS C.H. ( 1985 - 2003 ) BOGOR

60

50

40

30

20

10

laju masuk

CH

Air Permukaan

laju keluar

Debit

TMA

Intensitas

deltaDebit kostanta deltaTMA

Conclusion • ANFIS & System Dynamics can be

combined for floods prediction / forecasting of Ciliwung river and estimating runoff as a function of time • Accurate short time prediction needs atmospheric model, rainfall-runoff model and data from weather radar & satellite • A warning system for Ciliwung river should be based on accurate flood forecasting.