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23) Sacramento, CA Figure 157: Year/Year change in existing home prices – Sacramento, CA 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% -10% -20% -30% -40%

Apr-09

Jan-09

Jul-08

Oct-08

Apr-08

Jan-08

Jul-07

Oct-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Jul-06

Oct-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

Jul-05

Oct-05

Apr-05

Jan-05

Jul-04

Oct-04

Apr-04

Jan-04

-50%

Source: Deutsche Bank and Local MLS associations, S&P/Case-Shiller

Figure 158: Year/year change in existing home sales - Sacramento, CA 200%

150%

100%

50%

0%

-50%

Apr-09

Oct-08

Jan-09

Jul-08

Apr-08

Oct-07

Jan-08

Jul-07

Apr-07

Jan-07

Oct-06

Jul-06

Apr-06

Jan-06

Oct-05

Jul-05

Apr-05

Jan-05

Oct-04

Jul-04

Apr-04

Jan-04

-100%

Source: Deutsche Bank and Local MLS associations

Figure 159: Metro stats – last 12 months - Sacramento, CA Number of Yr/Yr Change Median Yr/Yr Change Sales in Sales Price in Closing Price 76.0% $233 -34.5% May-08 Jun-08 95.5% $221 -37.3% Jul-08 128.5% $219 -36.7% Aug-08 107.4% $221 -33.6% 186.3% $196 -39.8% Sep-08 173.1% $197 -36.3% Oct-08 110.8% $185 -38.3% Nov-08 Dec-08 139.7% $182 -36.3% Jan-09 108.7% $170 -34.3% 81.0% $169 -34.8% Feb-09 61.5% $169 -34.5% Mar-09 17.6% $167 -29.1% Apr-09

Housing Inventory 25,466 24,246 26,042 25,478 24,858 25,005 23,634 22,065 23,556 22,728 21,844 20,651

Yr/ Yr Change -19.6% -21.2% -20.0% -11.7% -18.2% -20.1% -21.4%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Local MLS associations, Zip Realty, US Census Bureau Note: Median Price in $000s

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Sacramento, CA (continued) Figure 160: Sacramento, CA - Annual permits issued (thousands) 25

20

15

10

5

0 1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009*

Source: Deutsche Bank and US Census *Note: 2007 figure is year-to-date

Figure 161: Existing Home Inventory - Sacramento, CA 33,000 31,000 29,000 27,000 25,000 23,000 21,000 19,000 17,000 15,000 Oct-07

Dec-07

Feb-08

Apr-08

Jun-08

Aug-08

Oct-08

Dec-08

Feb-09

Apr-09

Source: Deutsche Bank and Zip Realty

Figure 162: Top Public Builders

Sacramento, CA As a % of Builder Closings Total Closings Beazer 494 4% Standard Pacific 252 3% Hovnanian 382 3% Centex 733 2% Lennar 722 2% KB Home 420 2% Pulte 442 2% DR Horton 569 2% Ryland Meritage MDC Toll Brothers -

2007 Comm 2007 Count Closings/Comm 7 71 6 42 9 45 18 41 12 63 8 53 10 47 34 17 13 0 8 0 5 0 2 0

Source: Deutsche Bank estimates, company reports

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Analyzing distressed inventory at a local level Shadow inventory amounts to nearly 95% of listings in the 27 markets below. In our view, the recent tidal wave of foreclosures has added another way in which MLS listings do not accurately reflect the resale market. Based on our analysis, MLS based listing inventory is significantly understating the extent of foreclosure inventory in many markets. In Figure 18 below, we compare distressed inventory vs. MLS listings in major metro areas across the US. A certain portion of distressed inventory is included in MLS listings – if it were all included we would expect MLS listings to be higher than distressed inventory. Clearly, not all distressed inventory appears in MLS listings. As shown below, in eight of the 26 markets in our analysis, distressed inventory is actually higher than MLS listings. In the Inland Empire and Las Vegas the distressed inventory figure is more than three times that of MLS listings. Overall, foreclosure inventory is equal to roughly 94% of MLS listings in the 27 markets in our analysis. However within the 17 bubble markets in our list foreclosure inventory is much higher, at roughly 116% of MLS listings, while within the 10 non-bubble markets foreclosure inventory is equal to roughly 61% of MLS listings. Markets in California dominate the shadow inventory rankings. Five of the top eight markets in terms of shadow inventory compared to MLS listings are in California. The Inland Empire is at the top of this list with for sale foreclosures amounting to nearly 371% of MLS listings. Las Vegas is another metro where for distressed inventory amount to more than 300% of MLS listings. Southern markets such as Dallas, Austin, Raleigh and Charlotte dominate the bottom half of our list where distressed inventory is a smaller phenomenon relative to MLS listings. In all of these markets distressed inventory is less than half of MLS listings.

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Figure 18: Local MLS listings vs. distressed inventory MLS Listings

Foreclosure Inventory % Listings

Inland Empire CA Las Vegas NV San Diego CA Los Angeles CA Phoenix AZ Sacramento CA San Francisco CA Denver CO Tucson AZ Atlanta GA Miami FL Chicago IL Orlando FL Jacksonville FL Baltimore MD Minneapolis MN Houston TX New York Area Tampa FL Washington DC Area Philadelphia PA Austin TX Dallas TX Seattle WA Salt Lake City UT Charlotte NC Raleigh NC Total

24,023 17,041 11,501 39,575 41,758 19,772 24,638 20,481 8,703 59,980 96,729 95,396 40,498 15,866 4,764 28,584 37,141 45,262 48,847 48,177 46,310 14,051 48,998 47,954 21,247 27,944 20,133 955,373

89,020 58,519 30,623 102,243 92,330 29,588 34,415 23,270 8,564 58,189 76,892 68,754 28,682 10,926 3,270 19,055 23,912 27,208 28,623 24,632 17,998 4,800 16,408 11,966 4,629 5,778 2,488 902,783

371% 343% 266% 258% 221% 150% 140% 114% 98% 97% 79% 72% 71% 69% 69% 67% 64% 60% 59% 51% 39% 34% 33% 25% 22% 21% 12% 94%

Bubble Markets Non-bubble Markets

581,418 373,955

675,500 227,283

116% 61%

Source: Realtytrac, Zip Realty, Deutsche Bank Note: Foreclosure inventory includes pre-foreclosures, auctions and REO. 2/3 of pre-foreclosures are assumed to become foreclosures.

Inventory of distressed assets includes 2.2% of households. Since MLS listings are a poor proxy for true resale inventories (see Inventory section), in this section we compare distressed inventory to other more reliable housing metrics in order to gauge how substantial it is. In Figure 19 below, we compare foreclosure inventories to the number of housing units in each metro. Overall, foreclosure inventory represents 2.2% of homes in the 27 markets we analyze. This list is headed mainly by the bubble markets that experienced the fastest growth in terms of new construction during the recent housing boom, including Las Vegas, Inland Empire, Phoenix Sacramento and Orlando. In the bubble markets foreclosure inventory represents 2.4% of homes while in the non bubble markets foreclosure inventory represents 1.7% of homes. Las Vegas has the largest percentage of distressed inventory to housing stock at 7.7%, followed by the Inland Empire with 6.4% and Phoenix with 5.7%. Baltimore has the lowest percentage of distressed inventory to housing stock at 0.3%, followed by New York, and Raleigh where roughly 0.6% each of housing stock is distressed inventory.

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Figure 19: Distressed Inventory as a % of Housing Units Foreclosure Inventory

Housing Units (2006)

% Housing Units

Housing Units Added (2000-06)

Las Vegas NV Inland Empire CA Phoenix AZ Sacramento CA Orlando FL Miami FL Atlanta GA San Diego CA Los Angeles CA Denver CO Chicago IL Tampa FL San Francisco CA Tucson AZ Jacksonville FL Washington DC Area Minneapolis MN Salt Lake City UT Houston TX Dallas TX Seattle WA Charlotte NC Austin TX Philadelphia PA Raleigh NC New York Area Baltimore MD Total

58,519 89,020 92,330 29,588 28,682 76,892 58,189 30,623 102,243 23,270 68,754 28,623 34,415 8,564 10,926 24,632 19,055 4,629 23,912 16,408 11,966 5,778 4,800 17,998 2,488 27,208 3,270 902,783

756,161 1,400,825 1,622,977 837,102 854,121 2,380,664 2,056,233 1,125,827 4,379,290 1,028,001 3,104,981 1,294,419 1,679,600 418,199 569,729 1,660,085 1,310,614 384,436 2,098,898 1,543,076 1,383,270 677,795 613,459 2,373,750 409,230 4,571,041 1,101,292 41,635,075

7.7% 6.4% 5.7% 3.5% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% 2.7% 2.3% 2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.0% 2.0% 1.9% 1.5% 1.5% 1.2% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8% 0.6% 0.6% 0.3% 2.2%

34% 18% 21% 16% 24% 10% 24% 8% 3% 14% 7% 13% 4% 13% 19% 11% 12% 12% 16% 15% 10% 23% 22% 4% 23% 3% 5% 10%

Bubble Markets Non-bubble Markets

675,500 227,283

28,408,352 13,226,723

2.4% 1.7%

9% 15%

Source: Realtytrac, US Census, Deutsche Bank Note: Foreclosure inventory includes pre-foreclosures, auctions and REO. 2/3 of pre-foreclosures are assumed to become foreclosures.

As a reference point, we also include the rate of growth in housing stock in the far right column. This column shows what percent of current (2006) housing stock was added from 2000 through 2006. Months supply of distressed inventory is at 28.9. Whereas in Figure 19 we compare distressed inventory against housing stock, in this section we assess it on a months supply basis. In Figure 20 below, we calculate local month’s supply of distressed inventory based on the level of new home production in 2008. Based on local new production levels overall distressed inventory is equal to a 28.9 months supply. In the bubble markets distressed inventory equals a 39.2 months supply while in the non-bubble markets it’s only a 16.2 months supply. Miami tops the list with a massive 113 months of supply, followed by the Inland Empire with 111 months of supply. Five California markets are within the top seven with an average of 80 months of distressed inventory supply.

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The markets with the lowest supply of distressed inventory are mostly Southern markets, including the main Texas markets as well as Charlotte and Raleigh, NC. This is not surprising considering that not only have these markets held up better but also they are more dominated by new construction than the rest of the country. The bottom 10 markets have only a 6.8 months supply of distressed inventory, compared to 28.9 months overall and 69.7 months supply for the top 10 markets. Figure 20: Distressed inventory compared to new housing production Foreclosure Inventory

Permits (2008)

Months Supply

Miami FL Inland Empire CA Los Angeles CA San Diego CA Phoenix AZ San Francisco CA Sacramento CA Las Vegas NV Chicago IL Minneapolis MN Tampa FL Atlanta GA Orlando FL Denver CO Tucson AZ Philadelphia PA Washington DC Area Jacksonville FL Salt Lake City UT Seattle WA Baltimore MD Houston TX New York Area Dallas TX Charlotte NC Austin TX Raleigh NC Total

76,892 89,020 102,243 30,623 92,330 34,415 29,588 58,519 68,754 19,055 28,623 58,189 28,682 23,270 8,564 17,998 24,632 10,926 4,629 11,966 3,270 23,912 27,208 16,408 5,778 4,800 2,488 902,783

8,166 9,620 15,290 4,911 17,414 6,891 6,062 12,550 16,723 5,913 9,092 18,797 10,738 8,951 3,400 9,932 14,479 6,870 4,259 15,136 4,789 42,226 51,446 33,180 12,140 14,144 11,538 374,657

113.0 111.0 80.2 74.8 63.6 59.9 58.6 56.0 49.3 38.7 37.8 37.1 32.1 31.2 30.2 21.7 20.4 19.1 13.0 9.5 8.2 6.8 6.3 5.9 5.7 4.1 2.6 28.9

Bubble Markets Non-bubble Markets

675,500 227,283

206,786 167,871

39.2 16.2

Source: Realtytrac, US Census, Deutsche Bank Note: Foreclosure inventory includes pre-foreclosures, auctions and REO. 2/3 of pre-foreclosures are assumed to become foreclosures.

Shadow inventory continues to grow Shadow inventory continues to grow in spite of higher distressed property sales. As shown in Figure 21, shadow inventory (foreclosures available for sale) in the 42 markets we’ve been tracking has increased from about 781,000 in August 08 to 1,061,000 at the end May. Foreclosures available for sale have generally increased despite rising sales volumes of properties in distress. As mentioned previously the NAR has reported that over the last several months distressed home sales have accounted for approximately 45% of resale volumes.

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Figure 21: Shadow inventory levels over the last ten months 1,100,000 1,050,000 1,000,000 950,000 900,000 850,000 800,000 750,000 Aug-08

Sep-08

Oct-08

Nov-08

Dec-08

Jan-09

Feb-09 Mar-09

Apr-09

May-09

Jun-09

Source: Deutsche Bank, RealtyTrac Note: Through April 15, 2009

Details about our database of shadow inventory. We originally generated our list of 42 markets based on our proprietary builder community count in 1Q08. These were the top 42 markets by public builder community count and account for approximately 40% of all housing units in the US according to 2007 Census housing unit estimates. 23 of our 42 markets are classified as bubble markets (those where price appreciation was greater than 59% from 2000-2005 according to FHFA data). Within the largest states these metros account for: 74% of homes in California, 55% in Texas, 78% in Arizona, 88% in Nevada and 68% in Florida. Bank owned inventory the bulk of foreclosures for sale. Out of the 1,061,000 distressed homes inventory, 44% are bank owned, 26% are in pre-foreclosure and 29% are awaiting auction (Figure 22). In total there are 467k bank owned properties on the market, while 311k properties are in auction and 281k in pre-foreclosure. Note: we determine shadow inventory from pre-foreclosures by assuming that 2/3rds will ultimately be foreclosed upon. Figure 22: Homes in pre-foreclosure, at auction or bank

Figure 23: Percentage of homes in pre-foreclosure, at

owned

auction or bank owned Pre-foreclosures

Auction

Bank Owned

Pr e-f or eclosur es

1,200,000

Auct ion

Bank Owned

100%

90%

1,000,000 80%

70%

800,000

60%

600,000

50% 40%

400,000 30%

200,000

20% 10%

Source: Deutsche Bank, RealtyTrac

Jun-09

May-09

Apr-09

Mar-09

Feb-09

Jan-09

Dec-08

Nov-08

Oct-08

Sep-08

Aug-08

0 0%

Source: Deutsche Bank,RealtyTrac

Bubble markets dominate the bulk of distressed properties for sale. As one might expect, properties in bubble markets make up a significantly larger share of the shadow inventory. 70% (738,000 units) of distressed homes are located in bubble markets while the remaining 30% (323,000 units) are located in non-bubble markets. Figure 24 shows the

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bubble/non-bubble percent breakdown of the total 1,061,000 foreclosures available at the end May, 2009. Figure 24: Foreclosures avail for sale in bubble & non-bubble mkts as of April 15, 2009

Non Bubble 30%

Bubble 70%

Source: Deutsche Ban, Realty Track Note: 23 bubble markets and 19 non-bubble markets

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Housing Inventory Summary: On a year/year basis, overall resale listings were down -16% in May. On a month/ month basis, inventories were down by -1% from April. Total inventory in the 31 markets we track stands at roughly 1,027,000 listings (down from 1,280,000 listings at this time last year).

Marginal decline in listings Overall listings in the 31 available markets that we track showed a -1.2% median month/month decrease to 1.03mm units in May. This compares to May’s historical increase of +1% (according to NAR US nationwide data). Volumes data continues to show strength in certain markets due to foreclosure sales which we think is a result of investor buyers. While there may be a temporary boost in demand in the 1H09 due to buyers deferring purchases as a result of the economic shock in 4Q08, we think that real homebuyer resale demand (not investors) will remain tepid throughout the remainder of the year. Figure 25: Month/ month change in housing inventories

Median for DB 31 Metros

NAR historical median

10% 5% 0% -5% -10%

May-09

Mar-09

Jan-09

Nov-08

Sep-08

Jul-08

May-08

Mar-08

Jan-08

Nov-07

-15%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Zip Realty, NAR

“Inventory” captured in MLS listings not as reliable as it once was. As the housing market has moved further into this downturn foreclosures have only just begun to add insult to injury. Below we reiterate two important points about the resale inventory trends: „

Occupied listings should not be considered a true unit of inventory since there isn’t a net addition or subtraction to the overall buyer pool; and

„

More often than not, distressed vacant properties do not show up in MLS listings which may dramatically understate true inventory.

While we do believe that evaluating housing listings on a metro level basis is important, we feel that the two points made above are important considerations when examining inventory data.

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Listings up the most in Philadelphia, PA and down the most in San Diego, CA. The 31 markets that we track had a -1% month/month decrease in inventory. The largest increase was in Philadelphia up +14.7% from April followed by Norfolk up +5.8%. Looking at the declines, San Diego had the highest decline down -23.6% followed by the Inland Empire down -15.3%. Listings in many of the bubble markets are showing declines with many home sellers pulling their houses from the market in order to avoid competing with foreclosures. See Figure 26 for a monthly breakdown of metro level inventory details. Figure 26: Month/ month change in housing inventories broken down by metro Metro Philadelphia, PA Norfolk, VA Massachusets

Jun-08 1.5% 1.6% -0.6%

Jul-08 -1.7% -1.0% -3.1%

Aug-08 1.5% -0.5% -3.3%

Sep-08 0.2% -1.7% -0.5%

Oct-08 -0.9% -1.3% -4.0%

Nov-08 -3.8% -1.7% -8.0%

Dec-08 0.5% -4.1% -12.0%

Jan-09 -9.3% -0.5% 9.2%

Feb-09 2.9% 1.8% 2.2%

Mar-09 2.6% 1.3% 3.9%

Apr-09 2.4% 0.9% 5.2%

May-09 14.7% 5.8% 3.8%

New York State Austin, TX Seattle, WA

1.4% 5.4% 3.0%

-0.1% 1.8% 2.1%

-1.3% -2.2% 0.4%

-0.1% -4.0% -2.6%

-1.7% -1.4% -4.3%

-2.5% -3.7% -5.4%

-5.6% -6.2% -6.6%

-3.8% -1.3% -6.7%

2.3% 3.5% 3.5%

2.7% 5.6% 2.3%

2.3% 1.1% 0.6%

2.9% 2.7% 2.6%

Chicago, IL Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN Charlotte, NC

2.3% 0.3% 1.3%

0.5% -1.1% 0.2%

-1.0% -1.5% 1.4%

-2.1% -4.4% -2.0%

-3.2% -0.6% -1.5%

-4.5% -7.3% -0.7%

-5.6% -7.1% -3.8%

-4.0% -4.7% -3.7%

2.2% 1.6% 3.8%

2.1% 1.3% 1.3%

1.0% 0.4% 1.1%

1.4% 1.3% 1.1%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Baltimore, MD Richmond, VA

0.4% 3.4% 0.7%

-0.7% 3.6% -1.2%

-2.3% 0.6% -0.1%

-2.9% 0.9% -0.8%

-1.2% -1.7% -1.8%

0.0% -3.5% -2.0%

-5.0% -6.8% -5.7%

-2.3% -3.9% -3.3%

1.5% -1.3% 4.4%

3.1% 2.2% 1.9%

0.7% 0.5% 2.8%

0.9% 0.9% 0.8%

Houston, TX Raleigh-Cary, NC Denver, C0

0.6% -0.9% -0.4%

0.2% 0.9% -1.9%

-2.1% 0.6% -3.2%

-3.9% -0.1% -1.5%

-2.6% 1.1% -2.6%

-2.5% -1.7% -5.3%

-5.0% -4.3% -7.7%

-2.5% -3.2% -1.1%

0.0% 0.3% 2.2%

2.4% 3.5% 3.9%

-1.2% 2.0% 0.9%

-0.2% -0.4% -0.7%

Atlanta, GA Salt Lake City, UT Washington DC Area Jacksonville, FL

0.3% 2.4% -0.6% -1.1%

-1.1% 1.0% -0.7% -0.5%

-2.5% -1.5% -3.0% 10.7%

-3.1% -1.8% -1.7% -0.1%

-1.5% -2.2% -2.8% -1.0%

-2.2% -2.9% -3.4% -1.2%

-5.0% -5.5% -6.5% -2.9%

-6.7% -1.4% -4.9% -1.9%

-0.2% 0.6% -0.4% 0.8%

0.6% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0%

-2.6% -0.5% -1.7% -1.7%

-1.2% -1.4% -1.8% -2.0%

Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL Sacramento, CA Tucson, AZ Orlando, FL

-1.8% -4.8% -3.9% -1.0%

-1.1% 7.4% -1.5% -0.7%

0.1% -2.2% -3.4% -0.5%

-0.7% -2.4% 2.0% 2.8%

0.4% 0.6% 3.1% 0.4%

-0.5% -5.5% 0.3% -0.7%

-2.9% -6.6% -1.6% -2.0%

-4.1% 6.8% -2.3% -4.1%

-0.7% -3.5% 0.0% -1.0%

-1.6% -3.9% -0.9% -1.9%

-4.5% -5.5% -4.1% -4.2%

-4.3% -4.3% -5.4% -5.5%

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL Oxnard, CA Los Angeles-Orange County, CA Oakland, CA

-0.5% -0.6% -1.2% -1.3%

-1.2% -4.8% -1.6% -0.7%

-1.2% -4.0% -3.5% -3.1%

-0.9% -5.8% -5.0% -1.9%

-1.0% -6.2% -2.2% 0.0%

-1.4% -3.4% -3.9% -6.4%

-3.0% -10.1% -7.7% -10.1%

-3.7% -6.1% -5.4% -4.8%

-2.0% -3.3% -2.8% 0.2%

-2.9% -2.6% -3.9% -0.8%

-5.1% -12.5% -9.3% -8.9%

-5.9% -7.6% -9.5% -10.8%

Phoenix, AZ Las Vegas, NV Inland Empire, CA San Diego, CA Median

-2.3% -1.5% -2.0% -1.9% -0.5%

-0.2% 0.9% -2.0% 0.1% -0.7%

3.8% -1.0% -2.6% -3.3% -1.5%

-1.3% -0.1% -2.6% -5.0% -1.7%

0.8% 2.2% 0.8% -2.0% -1.4%

1.8% 1.6% -5.2% -3.0% -2.9%

1.3% -0.3% -5.4% -7.3% -5.5%

-4.2% -3.5% -6.3% -3.4% -3.7%

-5.1% -3.6% -5.9% -0.4% 0.2%

-3.6% -3.8% -7.0% -1.9% 1.0%

-12.9% -11.0% -13.5% -4.7% -1.2%

-13.7% -14.4% -15.3% -23.6% -1.2%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Zip Realty Note: sorted by change in inventory in current month

Inventories on a year/year basis were down in 28 of our 31 markets. The largest declines were in the three California markets of Inland Empire, Oxnard and San Diego (down -50.4%,50.2%, and -45.3% respectively). As for the largest increases, Philadelphia had the highest increase up by 9.2% followed by Austin with a 0.4% increase and Norfolk with a 0.3% increase. See Figure 27 for a weekly breakdown of metro level inventory details.

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Figure 27: Year/year change in housing inventories broken down by metro (weekly since March 13th) Metro Philadelphia, PA Austin, TX Norfolk, VA Jacksonville, FL Charlotte, NC Raleigh-Cary, NC

3/13/09 -0.7% 9.2% 1.7% 3.1% 8.3% -1.8%

3/20/09 -0.3% 8.6% 1.2% 3.7% 5.2% -0.7%

3/27/09 -1.7% 6.2% -0.9% 1.4% 4.4% -2.6%

4/3/09 -1.9% 6.2% -2.0% -0.5% 3.0% -2.0%

4/10/09 -0.2% 7.3% -0.6% 1.4% 5.5% -1.2%

4/17/09 -1.3% 5.4% -2.4% 1.0% 3.6% -1.5%

4/24/09 -2.9% 1.8% -3.2% 1.0% 2.3% -2.1%

5/1/09 -2.1% 3.1% 1.7% 1.4% 2.7% -2.0%

5/8/09 -2.9% 2.2% 1.1% -1.3% 0.1% -2.6%

5/15/09 -1.9% 3.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.9% -2.3%

5/22/09 9.4% 2.1% 1.0% -1.1% -1.1% -3.4%

5/29/09 9.2% 0.4% 0.3% -1.5% -2.0% -2.5%

New York State Richmond, VA Baltimore, MD

11.3% 4.7%

10.6% 5.7%

1.4% 8.1% 2.2%

1.5% 6.1% 1.9%

2.4% 9.6% 2.0%

1.3% 8.4% -0.9%

-2.5% 5.8% -2.4%

-1.4% 6.8% -1.5%

-3.2% 4.0% -2.4%

-2.1% 4.5% -2.6%

-2.7% 3.6% -4.1%

-3.8% -4.7% -5.5%

Dallas-Fort Worth, TX Massachusets Chicago, IL

-7.6% -9.7% -1.7%

-6.9% -9.3% -2.6%

-8.0% -10.9% -4.9%

-8.6% -9.6% -5.1%

-8.1% -9.1% -4.9%

-4.0% -9.5% -6.6%

-8.6% -9.6% -8.2%

-8.4% -8.7% -8.1%

-9.3% -9.2% -9.2%

-8.2% -8.6% -8.9%

-8.3% -9.3% -9.7%

-7.8% -8.8% -10.8%

Seattle, WA Salt Lake City, UT Houston, TX

1.5% 2.7% -13.7%

-1.0% 2.6% -13.3%

-4.3% -0.4% -13.6%

-5.7% -1.2% -14.3%

-4.6% -1.6% -13.4%

-6.2% -3.2% -14.1%

-8.3% -5.3% -15.3%

-7.7% -5.4% -14.9%

-9.1% -7.5% -15.9%

-9.1% -6.2% -15.8%

-9.8% -8.0% -16.0%

-11.3% -11.7% -15.9%

Denver, C0 Tucson, AZ Orlando, FL Tampa-St. Petersburg, FL

-15.7% -9.6% -14.1%

-15.6% -9.2% -15.2%

-15.2% -10.1% -15.0%

-17.0% -12.5% -17.3%

-15.2% -11.1% -16.1%

-16.1% -11.5% -17.2%

-16.2% -12.5% -12.6% -17.7%

-16.4% -14.0% -13.6% -18.4%

-17.2% -15.0% -14.0% -19.7%

-16.4% -14.3% -15.1% -18.8%

-16.1% -15.4% -16.4% -19.8%

-16.4% -16.6% -16.9% -19.9%

Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN Sacramento, CA Atlanta, GA Washington DC Area

-13.8% -19.0% -15.7% -13.4%

-14.9% -19.9% -15.5% -14.6%

-16.1% -20.1% -17.3% -17.7%

-16.5% -22.0% -18.9% -19.8%

-16.1% -20.7% -17.6% -18.0%

-17.0% -21.7% -19.2% -19.9%

-18.1% -21.4% -20.5% -21.2%

-18.0% -22.4% -20.2% -21.2%

-18.5% -23.2% -22.8% -23.5%

-18.7% -23.2% -21.4% -23.1%

-19.7% -23.1% -22.2% -23.6%

-20.2% -22.4% -22.6% -24.2%

Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL Las Vegas, NV Phoenix, AZ Oakland, CA

-16.6% -14.6% -11.4% -18.6%

-17.5% -14.2% -12.5% -19.5%

-18.1% -14.7% -13.9% -21.7%

-19.8% -17.4% -17.9% -24.5%

-19.1% -17.6% -18.8% -26.2%

-20.5% -19.7% -21.3% -29.2%

-21.2% -21.7% -23.4% -31.1%

-22.2% -23.7% -25.7% -32.5%

-24.0% -25.9% -28.5% -35.4%

-23.7% -27.1% -29.2% -36.6%

-24.9% -29.0% -31.6% -38.5%

-25.4% -30.6% -31.7% -39.8%

Los Angeles-Orange County, CA San Diego, CA Oxnard, CA Inland Empire, CA Median

-30.2% -23.2% -40.9% -33.1% -12.4%

-31.5% -24.3% -40.8% -34.9% -12.9%

-32.8% -25.9% -40.8% -36.5% -13.6%

-35.9% -27.7% -43.2% -39.8% -14.3%

-36.0% -27.6% -43.8% -40.0% -13.4%

-37.9% -28.9% -45.7% -43.1% -14.1%

-38.8% -29.2% -46.0% -43.8% -12.6%

-39.6% -29.5% -46.7% -45.3% -14.0%

-42.0% -30.2% -48.1% -47.6% -15.0%

-42.7% -30.4% -48.0% -48.7% -15.1%

-43.7% -30.6% -49.7% -49.7% -16.0%

-44.0% -45.3% -50.2% -50.4% -16.4%

Source: Deutsche Bank, Zip Realty

Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.

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