Crl Congressional District Foreclosure Projections - 2-17-09
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Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
State
Congressional District 1
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
District foreclosure estimates are based on projected national foreclosures of 2.4 million in 2009 (CRL-derived) and 8.1 million over the next four years (Credit Suisse). In addition, the expected benefit of court-supervised modifications is based on a national savings of 800,000 homes as projected by Moody’s Economy.com in early January 2009. Since that time, Credit Suisse has 5 estimated that court-supervised modifications could reduce foreclosures by 20%. On a base of 8.1 MM foreclosures, this would be 1.6 million homes saved —twice Moody’s projection—so the benefits reported below are very conservative. See the endnotes for further details.
AK
00
2,069
6,888
542
AL
01
3,686
12,274
1,388
AL
02
2,817
9,378
1,060
AL
03
2,614
8,702
984
AL
04
2,141
7,127
806
AL
05
3,159
10,518
1,189
AL
06
4,350
14,482
1,638
AL
07
2,463
8,200
927
AR
01
2,029
6,755
690
AR
02
2,874
9,569
977
AR
03
3,691
12,290
1,255
AR
04
1,673
5,571
569
AZ
01
11,569
38,514
2,610
AZ
02
22,909
76,278
5,170
AZ
03
15,546
51,756
3,507
AZ
04
9,690
32,261
2,186
AZ
05
10,888
36,248
2,457
AZ
06
14,437
48,066
3,258
AZ
07
14,598
48,606
3,294
AZ
08
18,692
62,231
4,217
CA
01
9,725
32,380
2,923
CA
02
10,909
36,318
3,279
CA
03
17,765
59,148
5,340
CA
04
15,994
53,246
4,806
CA
05
11,248
37,449
3,381
CA
06
10,324
34,374
3,103
CA
07
13,979
46,541
4,202
CA
08
4,621
15,387
1,389
CA
09
9,508
31,651
2,858
2/17/2009
1 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
CA
10
7,072
23,548
2,125
CA
11
10,912
36,330
3,280
CA
12
7,926
26,388
2,381
CA
13
5,788
19,272
1,740
CA
14
5,092
16,953
1,531
CA
15
3,879
12,916
1,166
CA
16
4,682
15,591
1,408
CA
17
6,557
21,834
1,972
CA
18
12,673
42,193
3,810
CA
19
10,201
33,963
3,066
CA
20
8,952
29,807
2,690
CA
21
10,143
33,771
3,049
CA
22
10,433
34,734
3,136
CA
23
5,876
19,567
1,767
CA
24
10,477
34,885
3,150
CA
25
14,898
49,603
4,479
CA
26
13,487
44,903
4,053
CA
27
9,659
32,161
2,903
CA
28
3,179
10,583
955
CA
29
3,823
12,729
1,149
CA
30
4,509
15,014
1,355
CA
31
2,456
8,178
739
CA
32
3,701
12,320
1,112
CA
33
4,129
13,748
1,240
CA
34
4,591
15,282
1,380
CA
35
5,856
19,497
1,760
CA
36
7,526
25,053
2,262
CA
37
8,669
28,859
2,605
CA
38
4,472
14,891
1,344
CA
39
8,128
27,060
2,443
CA
40
8,879
29,560
2,669
CA
41
15,291
50,906
4,595
CA
42
9,299
30,958
2,794
CA
43
8,465
28,185
2,544
CA
44
16,043
53,411
4,822
2/17/2009
2 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
CA
45
15,328
51,033
4,608
CA
46
7,592
25,277
2,282
CA
47
2,683
8,937
807
CA
48
8,850
29,467
2,661
CA
49
9,560
31,829
2,873
CA
50
9,246
30,781
2,779
CA
51
12,300
40,950
3,696
CA
52
10,722
35,698
3,223
CA
53
4,046
13,468
1,216
CO
01
5,355
17,829
1,768
CO
02
5,749
19,141
1,897
CO
03
5,858
19,505
1,933
CO
04
4,804
15,994
1,585
CO
05
6,965
23,189
2,299
CO
06
6,148
20,470
2,029
CO
07
3,369
11,216
1,112
CT
01
3,850
12,817
1,429
CT
02
4,269
14,216
1,584
CT
03
3,874
12,897
1,438
CT
04
2,373
7,902
880
CT
05
3,337
11,111
1,238
DC
98
3,879
12,914
1,122
DE
00
5,550
18,477
2,219
FL
01
18,802
62,599
5,833
FL
02
10,898
36,282
3,380
FL
03
19,569
65,150
6,071
FL
04
13,949
46,444
4,327
FL
05
19,059
63,452
5,913
FL
06
10,208
33,986
3,167
FL
07
18,473
61,503
5,731
FL
08
15,373
51,186
4,770
FL
09
17,477
58,185
5,420
FL
10
16,622
55,342
5,157
FL
11
14,658
48,805
4,548
FL
12
15,103
50,284
4,686
2/17/2009
3 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
FL
13
18,508
61,622
5,742
FL
14
35,134
116,979
10,899
FL
15
25,124
83,646
7,792
FL
16
25,532
85,003
7,921
FL
17
17,279
57,530
5,360
FL
18
16,490
54,900
5,115
FL
19
20,295
67,573
6,295
FL
20
16,303
54,281
5,057
FL
21
14,569
48,506
4,520
FL
22
11,430
38,053
3,545
FL
23
4,398
14,642
1,364
FL
24
13,368
44,508
4,147
FL
25
15,108
50,301
4,686
GA
01
5,784
19,254
1,887
GA
02
2,935
9,772
958
GA
03
4,476
14,904
1,461
GA
04
10,232
34,066
3,340
GA
05
6,978
23,233
2,277
GA
06
7,711
25,672
2,517
GA
07
11,806
39,306
3,853
GA
08
10,685
35,572
3,487
GA
09
7,853
26,145
2,563
GA
10
5,960
19,843
1,945
GA
11
4,063
13,529
1,327
GA
12
4,129
13,747
1,348
GA
13
5,306
17,666
1,731
HI
01
2,408
8,016
741
HI
02
3,175
10,570
977
IA
01
3,096
10,308
1,325
IA
02
1,682
5,601
720
IA
03
2,707
9,011
1,158
IA
04
1,238
4,122
529
IA
05
1,696
5,646
725
ID
01
6,305
20,992
1,551
ID
02
4,124
13,731
1,015
2/17/2009
4 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
IL
01
7,560
25,172
2,493
IL
02
6,848
22,800
2,258
IL
03
5,393
17,956
1,779
IL
04
2,996
9,974
988
IL
05
3,589
11,951
1,184
IL
06
7,002
23,311
2,310
IL
07
4,495
14,966
1,483
IL
08
8,544
28,446
2,818
IL
09
4,147
13,806
1,368
IL
10
4,350
14,483
1,435
IL
11
7,326
24,393
2,417
IL
12
6,159
20,506
2,032
IL
13
6,729
22,403
2,220
IL
14
8,681
28,903
2,863
IL
15
3,832
12,756
1,263
IL
16
5,721
19,046
1,887
IL
17
3,716
12,371
1,225
IL
18
3,887
12,941
1,281
IL
19
1,975
6,577
651
IN
01
5,441
18,116
2,121
IN
02
5,482
18,251
2,137
IN
03
5,934
19,756
2,313
IN
04
7,997
26,625
3,117
IN
05
8,427
28,057
3,285
IN
06
4,858
16,174
1,894
IN
07
4,814
16,028
1,876
IN
08
2,883
9,600
1,123
IN
09
3,595
11,967
1,401
KS
01
1,481
4,932
504
KS
02
2,199
7,322
748
KS
03
4,060
13,517
1,380
KS
04
3,038
10,113
1,032
KY
01
2,067
6,883
771
KY
02
3,211
10,691
1,198
KY
03
4,741
15,784
1,769
2/17/2009
5 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
KY
04
4,000
13,315
1,493
KY
05
1,024
3,412
383
KY
06
3,041
10,123
1,135
LA
01
2,596
8,643
1,342
LA
02
1,123
3,738
581
LA
03
1,770
5,894
916
LA
04
2,442
8,129
1,263
LA
05
1,320
4,397
683
LA
06
3,497
11,643
1,808
LA
07
1,998
6,653
1,033
MA
01
1,945
6,474
853
MA
02
2,975
9,905
1,305
MA
03
3,364
11,200
1,476
MA
04
2,652
8,831
1,164
MA
05
3,515
11,702
1,542
MA
06
3,816
12,705
1,674
MA
07
2,885
9,606
1,266
MA
08
1,775
5,909
779
MA
09
2,965
9,873
1,301
MA
10
3,717
12,375
1,631
MD
01
8,063
26,844
2,692
MD
02
6,265
20,858
2,092
MD
03
3,872
12,892
1,293
MD
04
9,012
30,007
3,010
MD
05
8,167
27,192
2,728
MD
06
6,645
22,124
2,219
MD
07
2,840
9,458
949
MD
08
4,389
14,610
1,465
ME
01
4,603
15,326
1,597
ME
02
2,246
7,477
779
MI
01
4,635
15,431
1,725
MI
02
4,720
15,714
1,756
MI
03
4,820
16,048
1,794
MI
04
4,080
13,582
1,519
MI
05
8,052
26,807
2,997
2/17/2009
6 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
MI
06
4,810
16,013
1,791
MI
07
4,840
16,112
1,801
MI
08
7,455
24,820
2,775
MI
09
9,881
32,898
3,678
MI
10
8,712
29,006
3,243
MI
11
7,217
24,028
2,686
MI
12
6,711
22,343
2,498
MI
13
6,122
20,383
2,279
MI
14
6,551
21,809
2,438
MI
15
5,154
17,161
1,919
MN
01
3,728
12,413
1,197
MN
02
7,303
24,312
2,344
MN
03
6,751
22,477
2,168
MN
04
5,276
17,568
1,694
MN
05
4,262
14,188
1,369
MN
06
5,853
19,487
1,879
MN
07
3,542
11,791
1,137
MN
08
5,374
17,894
1,725
MO
01
5,360
17,845
1,808
MO
02
4,372
14,556
1,475
MO
03
3,248
10,815
1,096
MO
04
2,976
9,907
1,004
MO
05
5,594
18,624
1,888
MO
06
3,773
12,563
1,273
MO
07
3,581
11,924
1,208
MO
08
1,542
5,133
520
MO
09
1,844
6,141
622
MS
01
3,876
12,905
1,579
MS
02
3,023
10,066
1,232
MS
03
2,246
7,477
915
MS
04
2,928
9,747
1,193
MT
00
2,558
8,517
795
NC
01
2,734
9,104
904
NC
02
4,570
15,215
1,509
NC
03
3,281
10,926
1,084
2/17/2009
7 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
NC
04
4,572
15,223
1,510
NC
05
3,546
11,805
1,171
NC
06
3,957
13,175
1,307
NC
07
3,551
11,822
1,173
NC
08
3,696
12,306
1,221
NC
09
5,744
19,125
1,898
NC
10
2,548
8,484
841
NC
11
3,749
12,479
1,238
NC
12
1,864
6,207
616
NC
13
2,756
9,174
910
ND
00
977
3,252
337
NE
01
1,981
6,596
677
NE
02
3,034
10,100
1,038
NE
03
1,199
3,992
410
NH
01
4,326
14,403
1,265
NH
02
3,161
10,526
924
NJ
01
7,390
24,604
2,630
NJ
02
6,187
20,598
2,202
NJ
03
7,487
24,927
2,664
NJ
04
5,787
19,267
2,059
NJ
05
5,083
16,925
1,809
NJ
06
4,549
15,144
1,619
NJ
07
3,987
13,275
1,419
NJ
08
3,519
11,717
1,252
NJ
09
3,424
11,400
1,219
NJ
10
3,353
11,162
1,193
NJ
11
4,151
13,820
1,477
NJ
12
4,000
13,317
1,424
NJ
13
1,636
5,449
582
NM
01
4,343
14,459
1,434
NM
02
1,669
5,556
551
NM
03
1,669
5,557
551
NV
01
26,356
87,756
6,467
NV
02
22,320
74,308
5,475
NV
03
23,475
78,157
5,761
2/17/2009
8 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
NY
01
5,980
19,907
2,560
NY
02
3,678
12,246
1,575
NY
03
2,962
9,861
1,269
NY
04
3,350
11,153
1,435
NY
05
1,468
4,888
629
NY
06
3,498
11,646
1,498
NY
07
1,180
3,927
505
NY
08
840
2,796
359
NY
09
1,146
3,816
491
NY
10
1,575
5,243
674
NY
11
435
1,448
187
NY
12
523
1,741
225
NY
13
2,688
8,951
1,151
NY
14
575
1,915
246
NY
15
290
966
124
NY
16
462
1,538
198
NY
17
2,228
7,420
954
NY
18
2,363
7,867
1,012
NY
19
5,497
18,301
2,354
NY
20
3,900
12,986
1,670
NY
21
3,171
10,557
1,358
NY
22
3,037
10,112
1,300
NY
23
2,244
7,472
960
NY
24
2,187
7,284
936
NY
25
4,095
13,632
1,753
NY
26
3,879
12,913
1,661
NY
27
2,672
8,894
1,144
NY
28
2,749
9,151
1,177
NY
29
2,063
6,867
883
OH
01
5,640
18,777
2,216
OH
02
4,415
14,700
1,734
OH
03
7,654
25,482
3,006
OH
04
4,676
15,567
1,837
OH
05
3,655
12,170
1,436
OH
06
2,951
9,826
1,160
2/17/2009
9 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
OH
07
7,032
23,413
2,762
OH
08
3,058
10,179
1,201
OH
09
5,791
19,282
2,276
OH
10
5,461
18,182
2,145
OH
11
5,566
18,531
2,186
OH
12
7,225
24,057
2,839
OH
13
5,273
17,555
2,072
OH
14
4,877
16,235
1,915
OH
15
4,826
16,069
1,896
OH
16
3,867
12,874
1,519
OH
17
3,226
10,742
1,267
OH
18
2,347
7,814
921
OK
01
5,186
17,265
1,929
OK
02
1,279
4,257
476
OK
03
1,887
6,284
702
OK
04
3,979
13,248
1,480
OK
05
2,909
9,684
1,082
OR
01
4,411
14,684
1,161
OR
02
4,533
15,093
1,194
OR
03
4,200
13,984
1,106
OR
04
4,238
14,110
1,116
OR
05
2,723
9,066
717
PA
01
4,555
15,165
1,915
PA
02
2,040
6,793
858
PA
03
1,783
5,937
749
PA
04
2,184
7,273
918
PA
05
1,563
5,205
657
PA
06
4,648
15,475
1,954
PA
07
2,940
9,788
1,236
PA
08
4,427
14,739
1,861
PA
09
1,993
6,635
838
PA
10
2,850
9,489
1,198
PA
11
2,529
8,420
1,063
PA
12
1,418
4,720
596
PA
13
2,098
6,986
882
2/17/2009
10 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
PA
14
2,162
7,197
909
PA
15
3,122
10,393
1,313
PA
16
2,879
9,583
1,210
PA
17
3,102
10,328
1,304
PA
18
1,115
3,712
468
PA
19
3,794
12,632
1,595
RI
01
4,128
13,744
1,238
RI
02
4,678
15,576
1,403
SC
01
6,736
22,429
2,288
SC
02
5,843
19,455
1,985
SC
03
3,643
12,129
1,237
SC
04
4,744
15,795
1,611
SC
05
3,686
12,274
1,253
SC
06
2,098
6,985
712
SD
00
1,676
5,578
613
TN
01
2,307
7,681
857
TN
02
3,351
11,156
1,244
TN
03
3,119
10,384
1,158
TN
04
2,327
7,746
864
TN
05
5,362
17,853
1,991
TN
06
3,674
12,232
1,363
TN
07
4,620
15,382
1,715
TN
08
2,990
9,954
1,110
TN
09
5,960
19,842
2,212
TX
01
1,677
5,584
633
TX
02
4,626
15,402
1,746
TX
03
5,531
18,415
2,088
TX
04
3,047
10,143
1,150
TX
05
3,221
10,723
1,216
TX
06
5,702
18,983
2,152
TX
07
3,702
12,325
1,398
TX
08
3,034
10,101
1,145
TX
09
2,932
9,763
1,107
TX
10
4,948
16,475
1,868
TX
11
2,357
7,848
890
2/17/2009
11 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
TX
12
5,128
17,073
1,936
TX
13
2,023
6,735
763
TX
14
3,301
10,990
1,246
TX
15
2,000
6,658
755
TX
16
2,936
9,774
1,108
TX
17
2,478
8,248
935
TX
18
2,305
7,675
870
TX
19
2,026
6,744
765
TX
20
4,184
13,930
1,580
TX
21
4,318
14,377
1,630
TX
22
2,919
9,720
1,102
TX
23
2,781
9,260
1,050
TX
24
4,337
14,438
1,637
TX
25
1,059
3,526
400
TX
26
3,512
11,695
1,326
TX
27
2,916
9,710
1,101
TX
28
1,676
5,578
632
TX
29
973
3,240
368
TX
30
3,647
12,143
1,377
TX
31
3,096
10,309
1,169
TX
32
915
3,048
345
UT
01
5,687
18,932
1,420
UT
02
5,234
17,426
1,307
UT
03
5,392
17,951
1,347
VA
01
5,751
19,145
1,815
VA
02
4,624
15,393
1,459
VA
03
4,008
13,343
1,264
VA
04
5,539
18,441
1,748
VA
05
3,703
12,330
1,168
VA
06
4,071
13,555
1,285
VA
07
3,752
12,492
1,184
VA
08
5,115
17,030
1,614
VA
09
1,885
6,277
595
VA
10
7,033
23,416
2,220
VA
11
3,308
11,014
1,044
2/17/2009
12 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
VT
00
1,579
5,257
564
WA
01
3,553
11,829
954
WA
02
4,210
14,016
1,130
WA
03
4,678
15,575
1,256
WA
04
4,882
16,254
1,310
WA
05
4,089
13,612
1,097
WA
06
4,065
13,536
1,091
WA
07
2,650
8,822
711
WA
08
3,966
13,204
1,065
WA
09
2,534
8,434
680
WI
01
4,468
14,874
1,676
WI
02
2,197
7,314
825
WI
03
2,458
8,184
923
WI
04
4,473
14,892
1,679
WI
05
4,097
13,640
1,537
WI
06
2,486
8,278
933
WI
07
2,263
7,536
849
WI
08
2,612
8,695
980
WV
01
1,371
4,564
474
WV
02
2,333
7,768
807
WV
03
1,263
4,204
437
WY
00
1,109 2,432,900
3,691 8,100,000
317 800,000
United States (rounded)
2/17/2009
13 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
NOTES 1
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts were estimated using the McDash mortgage database. Data aggregated based on latest available matching of zipcodes to Congressional district (109th Congress). Total of 22,530,041 first lien mortgages secured by single family house, condo, townhome, or multifamily home were analyzed for this purpose. All the mortgages are outstanding by the middle of 2008. For any of the mortgages, if it is in foreclosure process, or if it has at least three late payments for the past 12 months by the middle of 2008, the mortgage is projected to foreclose eventually. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was aggregated to Zip code level. Zip codes were then assigned to congressional districts. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was then aggregated from Zip code level to congressional district level weighted by portion of the Zip code in the congressional district. Finally, # of mortgages projected to foreclose for congressional districts are divided by the total of US projected foreclosures to get the share of projected foreclosures for congressional districts. Districts that are represented in the McDash data in significantly greater proportion than their share of the overall housing market may show an overly high foreclosure projection. 2
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by projections of national foreclosures in 2009 (2,432,900). This estimate is based on the annualized run rate of foreclosure starts reported in 3Q 2008 MBA National Delinquency Survey, grossed up to reflect entire mortgage market (MBA National Delinquency Survey covers 80% of market). 3
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by projections of national foreclosures over next 5 years (8,100,000), reported by Credit Suisse. See Rod Dubitsky, Larry Yang, Stevan Stevanovic and Thomas Suehr, Foreclosure Update: over 8 million foreclosures expected, Credit Suisse (December 4, 2008) 4
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by Moody’s Economy.com projected reduction in national foreclosures due to court-supervised modifications (800,000.) See Elizabeth Williamson and Ruth Simon, Plan to Cut Foreclosure Rate Clears Key Hurdle, The Wall Street Journal (January 9, 2009) available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123144562914865337.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
5
Rod Dubitsky, Larry Yang, Stevan Stevanovic and Thomas Suehr, Bankruptcy Law Reform: A New Tool for Foreclosure Avoidance, Credit Suisse (January 26, 2009).
2/17/2009
14 of 14
State
Congressional District 1
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
District foreclosure estimates are based on projected national foreclosures of 2.4 million in 2009 (CRL-derived) and 8.1 million over the next four years (Credit Suisse). In addition, the expected benefit of court-supervised modifications is based on a national savings of 800,000 homes as projected by Moody’s Economy.com in early January 2009. Since that time, Credit Suisse has 5 estimated that court-supervised modifications could reduce foreclosures by 20%. On a base of 8.1 MM foreclosures, this would be 1.6 million homes saved —twice Moody’s projection—so the benefits reported below are very conservative. See the endnotes for further details.
AK
00
2,069
6,888
542
AL
01
3,686
12,274
1,388
AL
02
2,817
9,378
1,060
AL
03
2,614
8,702
984
AL
04
2,141
7,127
806
AL
05
3,159
10,518
1,189
AL
06
4,350
14,482
1,638
AL
07
2,463
8,200
927
AR
01
2,029
6,755
690
AR
02
2,874
9,569
977
AR
03
3,691
12,290
1,255
AR
04
1,673
5,571
569
AZ
01
11,569
38,514
2,610
AZ
02
22,909
76,278
5,170
AZ
03
15,546
51,756
3,507
AZ
04
9,690
32,261
2,186
AZ
05
10,888
36,248
2,457
AZ
06
14,437
48,066
3,258
AZ
07
14,598
48,606
3,294
AZ
08
18,692
62,231
4,217
CA
01
9,725
32,380
2,923
CA
02
10,909
36,318
3,279
CA
03
17,765
59,148
5,340
CA
04
15,994
53,246
4,806
CA
05
11,248
37,449
3,381
CA
06
10,324
34,374
3,103
CA
07
13,979
46,541
4,202
CA
08
4,621
15,387
1,389
CA
09
9,508
31,651
2,858
2/17/2009
1 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
CA
10
7,072
23,548
2,125
CA
11
10,912
36,330
3,280
CA
12
7,926
26,388
2,381
CA
13
5,788
19,272
1,740
CA
14
5,092
16,953
1,531
CA
15
3,879
12,916
1,166
CA
16
4,682
15,591
1,408
CA
17
6,557
21,834
1,972
CA
18
12,673
42,193
3,810
CA
19
10,201
33,963
3,066
CA
20
8,952
29,807
2,690
CA
21
10,143
33,771
3,049
CA
22
10,433
34,734
3,136
CA
23
5,876
19,567
1,767
CA
24
10,477
34,885
3,150
CA
25
14,898
49,603
4,479
CA
26
13,487
44,903
4,053
CA
27
9,659
32,161
2,903
CA
28
3,179
10,583
955
CA
29
3,823
12,729
1,149
CA
30
4,509
15,014
1,355
CA
31
2,456
8,178
739
CA
32
3,701
12,320
1,112
CA
33
4,129
13,748
1,240
CA
34
4,591
15,282
1,380
CA
35
5,856
19,497
1,760
CA
36
7,526
25,053
2,262
CA
37
8,669
28,859
2,605
CA
38
4,472
14,891
1,344
CA
39
8,128
27,060
2,443
CA
40
8,879
29,560
2,669
CA
41
15,291
50,906
4,595
CA
42
9,299
30,958
2,794
CA
43
8,465
28,185
2,544
CA
44
16,043
53,411
4,822
2/17/2009
2 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
CA
45
15,328
51,033
4,608
CA
46
7,592
25,277
2,282
CA
47
2,683
8,937
807
CA
48
8,850
29,467
2,661
CA
49
9,560
31,829
2,873
CA
50
9,246
30,781
2,779
CA
51
12,300
40,950
3,696
CA
52
10,722
35,698
3,223
CA
53
4,046
13,468
1,216
CO
01
5,355
17,829
1,768
CO
02
5,749
19,141
1,897
CO
03
5,858
19,505
1,933
CO
04
4,804
15,994
1,585
CO
05
6,965
23,189
2,299
CO
06
6,148
20,470
2,029
CO
07
3,369
11,216
1,112
CT
01
3,850
12,817
1,429
CT
02
4,269
14,216
1,584
CT
03
3,874
12,897
1,438
CT
04
2,373
7,902
880
CT
05
3,337
11,111
1,238
DC
98
3,879
12,914
1,122
DE
00
5,550
18,477
2,219
FL
01
18,802
62,599
5,833
FL
02
10,898
36,282
3,380
FL
03
19,569
65,150
6,071
FL
04
13,949
46,444
4,327
FL
05
19,059
63,452
5,913
FL
06
10,208
33,986
3,167
FL
07
18,473
61,503
5,731
FL
08
15,373
51,186
4,770
FL
09
17,477
58,185
5,420
FL
10
16,622
55,342
5,157
FL
11
14,658
48,805
4,548
FL
12
15,103
50,284
4,686
2/17/2009
3 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
FL
13
18,508
61,622
5,742
FL
14
35,134
116,979
10,899
FL
15
25,124
83,646
7,792
FL
16
25,532
85,003
7,921
FL
17
17,279
57,530
5,360
FL
18
16,490
54,900
5,115
FL
19
20,295
67,573
6,295
FL
20
16,303
54,281
5,057
FL
21
14,569
48,506
4,520
FL
22
11,430
38,053
3,545
FL
23
4,398
14,642
1,364
FL
24
13,368
44,508
4,147
FL
25
15,108
50,301
4,686
GA
01
5,784
19,254
1,887
GA
02
2,935
9,772
958
GA
03
4,476
14,904
1,461
GA
04
10,232
34,066
3,340
GA
05
6,978
23,233
2,277
GA
06
7,711
25,672
2,517
GA
07
11,806
39,306
3,853
GA
08
10,685
35,572
3,487
GA
09
7,853
26,145
2,563
GA
10
5,960
19,843
1,945
GA
11
4,063
13,529
1,327
GA
12
4,129
13,747
1,348
GA
13
5,306
17,666
1,731
HI
01
2,408
8,016
741
HI
02
3,175
10,570
977
IA
01
3,096
10,308
1,325
IA
02
1,682
5,601
720
IA
03
2,707
9,011
1,158
IA
04
1,238
4,122
529
IA
05
1,696
5,646
725
ID
01
6,305
20,992
1,551
ID
02
4,124
13,731
1,015
2/17/2009
4 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
IL
01
7,560
25,172
2,493
IL
02
6,848
22,800
2,258
IL
03
5,393
17,956
1,779
IL
04
2,996
9,974
988
IL
05
3,589
11,951
1,184
IL
06
7,002
23,311
2,310
IL
07
4,495
14,966
1,483
IL
08
8,544
28,446
2,818
IL
09
4,147
13,806
1,368
IL
10
4,350
14,483
1,435
IL
11
7,326
24,393
2,417
IL
12
6,159
20,506
2,032
IL
13
6,729
22,403
2,220
IL
14
8,681
28,903
2,863
IL
15
3,832
12,756
1,263
IL
16
5,721
19,046
1,887
IL
17
3,716
12,371
1,225
IL
18
3,887
12,941
1,281
IL
19
1,975
6,577
651
IN
01
5,441
18,116
2,121
IN
02
5,482
18,251
2,137
IN
03
5,934
19,756
2,313
IN
04
7,997
26,625
3,117
IN
05
8,427
28,057
3,285
IN
06
4,858
16,174
1,894
IN
07
4,814
16,028
1,876
IN
08
2,883
9,600
1,123
IN
09
3,595
11,967
1,401
KS
01
1,481
4,932
504
KS
02
2,199
7,322
748
KS
03
4,060
13,517
1,380
KS
04
3,038
10,113
1,032
KY
01
2,067
6,883
771
KY
02
3,211
10,691
1,198
KY
03
4,741
15,784
1,769
2/17/2009
5 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
KY
04
4,000
13,315
1,493
KY
05
1,024
3,412
383
KY
06
3,041
10,123
1,135
LA
01
2,596
8,643
1,342
LA
02
1,123
3,738
581
LA
03
1,770
5,894
916
LA
04
2,442
8,129
1,263
LA
05
1,320
4,397
683
LA
06
3,497
11,643
1,808
LA
07
1,998
6,653
1,033
MA
01
1,945
6,474
853
MA
02
2,975
9,905
1,305
MA
03
3,364
11,200
1,476
MA
04
2,652
8,831
1,164
MA
05
3,515
11,702
1,542
MA
06
3,816
12,705
1,674
MA
07
2,885
9,606
1,266
MA
08
1,775
5,909
779
MA
09
2,965
9,873
1,301
MA
10
3,717
12,375
1,631
MD
01
8,063
26,844
2,692
MD
02
6,265
20,858
2,092
MD
03
3,872
12,892
1,293
MD
04
9,012
30,007
3,010
MD
05
8,167
27,192
2,728
MD
06
6,645
22,124
2,219
MD
07
2,840
9,458
949
MD
08
4,389
14,610
1,465
ME
01
4,603
15,326
1,597
ME
02
2,246
7,477
779
MI
01
4,635
15,431
1,725
MI
02
4,720
15,714
1,756
MI
03
4,820
16,048
1,794
MI
04
4,080
13,582
1,519
MI
05
8,052
26,807
2,997
2/17/2009
6 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
MI
06
4,810
16,013
1,791
MI
07
4,840
16,112
1,801
MI
08
7,455
24,820
2,775
MI
09
9,881
32,898
3,678
MI
10
8,712
29,006
3,243
MI
11
7,217
24,028
2,686
MI
12
6,711
22,343
2,498
MI
13
6,122
20,383
2,279
MI
14
6,551
21,809
2,438
MI
15
5,154
17,161
1,919
MN
01
3,728
12,413
1,197
MN
02
7,303
24,312
2,344
MN
03
6,751
22,477
2,168
MN
04
5,276
17,568
1,694
MN
05
4,262
14,188
1,369
MN
06
5,853
19,487
1,879
MN
07
3,542
11,791
1,137
MN
08
5,374
17,894
1,725
MO
01
5,360
17,845
1,808
MO
02
4,372
14,556
1,475
MO
03
3,248
10,815
1,096
MO
04
2,976
9,907
1,004
MO
05
5,594
18,624
1,888
MO
06
3,773
12,563
1,273
MO
07
3,581
11,924
1,208
MO
08
1,542
5,133
520
MO
09
1,844
6,141
622
MS
01
3,876
12,905
1,579
MS
02
3,023
10,066
1,232
MS
03
2,246
7,477
915
MS
04
2,928
9,747
1,193
MT
00
2,558
8,517
795
NC
01
2,734
9,104
904
NC
02
4,570
15,215
1,509
NC
03
3,281
10,926
1,084
2/17/2009
7 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
NC
04
4,572
15,223
1,510
NC
05
3,546
11,805
1,171
NC
06
3,957
13,175
1,307
NC
07
3,551
11,822
1,173
NC
08
3,696
12,306
1,221
NC
09
5,744
19,125
1,898
NC
10
2,548
8,484
841
NC
11
3,749
12,479
1,238
NC
12
1,864
6,207
616
NC
13
2,756
9,174
910
ND
00
977
3,252
337
NE
01
1,981
6,596
677
NE
02
3,034
10,100
1,038
NE
03
1,199
3,992
410
NH
01
4,326
14,403
1,265
NH
02
3,161
10,526
924
NJ
01
7,390
24,604
2,630
NJ
02
6,187
20,598
2,202
NJ
03
7,487
24,927
2,664
NJ
04
5,787
19,267
2,059
NJ
05
5,083
16,925
1,809
NJ
06
4,549
15,144
1,619
NJ
07
3,987
13,275
1,419
NJ
08
3,519
11,717
1,252
NJ
09
3,424
11,400
1,219
NJ
10
3,353
11,162
1,193
NJ
11
4,151
13,820
1,477
NJ
12
4,000
13,317
1,424
NJ
13
1,636
5,449
582
NM
01
4,343
14,459
1,434
NM
02
1,669
5,556
551
NM
03
1,669
5,557
551
NV
01
26,356
87,756
6,467
NV
02
22,320
74,308
5,475
NV
03
23,475
78,157
5,761
2/17/2009
8 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
NY
01
5,980
19,907
2,560
NY
02
3,678
12,246
1,575
NY
03
2,962
9,861
1,269
NY
04
3,350
11,153
1,435
NY
05
1,468
4,888
629
NY
06
3,498
11,646
1,498
NY
07
1,180
3,927
505
NY
08
840
2,796
359
NY
09
1,146
3,816
491
NY
10
1,575
5,243
674
NY
11
435
1,448
187
NY
12
523
1,741
225
NY
13
2,688
8,951
1,151
NY
14
575
1,915
246
NY
15
290
966
124
NY
16
462
1,538
198
NY
17
2,228
7,420
954
NY
18
2,363
7,867
1,012
NY
19
5,497
18,301
2,354
NY
20
3,900
12,986
1,670
NY
21
3,171
10,557
1,358
NY
22
3,037
10,112
1,300
NY
23
2,244
7,472
960
NY
24
2,187
7,284
936
NY
25
4,095
13,632
1,753
NY
26
3,879
12,913
1,661
NY
27
2,672
8,894
1,144
NY
28
2,749
9,151
1,177
NY
29
2,063
6,867
883
OH
01
5,640
18,777
2,216
OH
02
4,415
14,700
1,734
OH
03
7,654
25,482
3,006
OH
04
4,676
15,567
1,837
OH
05
3,655
12,170
1,436
OH
06
2,951
9,826
1,160
2/17/2009
9 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
OH
07
7,032
23,413
2,762
OH
08
3,058
10,179
1,201
OH
09
5,791
19,282
2,276
OH
10
5,461
18,182
2,145
OH
11
5,566
18,531
2,186
OH
12
7,225
24,057
2,839
OH
13
5,273
17,555
2,072
OH
14
4,877
16,235
1,915
OH
15
4,826
16,069
1,896
OH
16
3,867
12,874
1,519
OH
17
3,226
10,742
1,267
OH
18
2,347
7,814
921
OK
01
5,186
17,265
1,929
OK
02
1,279
4,257
476
OK
03
1,887
6,284
702
OK
04
3,979
13,248
1,480
OK
05
2,909
9,684
1,082
OR
01
4,411
14,684
1,161
OR
02
4,533
15,093
1,194
OR
03
4,200
13,984
1,106
OR
04
4,238
14,110
1,116
OR
05
2,723
9,066
717
PA
01
4,555
15,165
1,915
PA
02
2,040
6,793
858
PA
03
1,783
5,937
749
PA
04
2,184
7,273
918
PA
05
1,563
5,205
657
PA
06
4,648
15,475
1,954
PA
07
2,940
9,788
1,236
PA
08
4,427
14,739
1,861
PA
09
1,993
6,635
838
PA
10
2,850
9,489
1,198
PA
11
2,529
8,420
1,063
PA
12
1,418
4,720
596
PA
13
2,098
6,986
882
2/17/2009
10 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
PA
14
2,162
7,197
909
PA
15
3,122
10,393
1,313
PA
16
2,879
9,583
1,210
PA
17
3,102
10,328
1,304
PA
18
1,115
3,712
468
PA
19
3,794
12,632
1,595
RI
01
4,128
13,744
1,238
RI
02
4,678
15,576
1,403
SC
01
6,736
22,429
2,288
SC
02
5,843
19,455
1,985
SC
03
3,643
12,129
1,237
SC
04
4,744
15,795
1,611
SC
05
3,686
12,274
1,253
SC
06
2,098
6,985
712
SD
00
1,676
5,578
613
TN
01
2,307
7,681
857
TN
02
3,351
11,156
1,244
TN
03
3,119
10,384
1,158
TN
04
2,327
7,746
864
TN
05
5,362
17,853
1,991
TN
06
3,674
12,232
1,363
TN
07
4,620
15,382
1,715
TN
08
2,990
9,954
1,110
TN
09
5,960
19,842
2,212
TX
01
1,677
5,584
633
TX
02
4,626
15,402
1,746
TX
03
5,531
18,415
2,088
TX
04
3,047
10,143
1,150
TX
05
3,221
10,723
1,216
TX
06
5,702
18,983
2,152
TX
07
3,702
12,325
1,398
TX
08
3,034
10,101
1,145
TX
09
2,932
9,763
1,107
TX
10
4,948
16,475
1,868
TX
11
2,357
7,848
890
2/17/2009
11 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
TX
12
5,128
17,073
1,936
TX
13
2,023
6,735
763
TX
14
3,301
10,990
1,246
TX
15
2,000
6,658
755
TX
16
2,936
9,774
1,108
TX
17
2,478
8,248
935
TX
18
2,305
7,675
870
TX
19
2,026
6,744
765
TX
20
4,184
13,930
1,580
TX
21
4,318
14,377
1,630
TX
22
2,919
9,720
1,102
TX
23
2,781
9,260
1,050
TX
24
4,337
14,438
1,637
TX
25
1,059
3,526
400
TX
26
3,512
11,695
1,326
TX
27
2,916
9,710
1,101
TX
28
1,676
5,578
632
TX
29
973
3,240
368
TX
30
3,647
12,143
1,377
TX
31
3,096
10,309
1,169
TX
32
915
3,048
345
UT
01
5,687
18,932
1,420
UT
02
5,234
17,426
1,307
UT
03
5,392
17,951
1,347
VA
01
5,751
19,145
1,815
VA
02
4,624
15,393
1,459
VA
03
4,008
13,343
1,264
VA
04
5,539
18,441
1,748
VA
05
3,703
12,330
1,168
VA
06
4,071
13,555
1,285
VA
07
3,752
12,492
1,184
VA
08
5,115
17,030
1,614
VA
09
1,885
6,277
595
VA
10
7,033
23,416
2,220
VA
11
3,308
11,014
1,044
2/17/2009
12 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
Projected Foreclosures in 2009 2
Projected Foreclosures over next four years 3
Expected benefit of court-supervised modifications (# of homes saved) 4
State
Congressional District 1
VT
00
1,579
5,257
564
WA
01
3,553
11,829
954
WA
02
4,210
14,016
1,130
WA
03
4,678
15,575
1,256
WA
04
4,882
16,254
1,310
WA
05
4,089
13,612
1,097
WA
06
4,065
13,536
1,091
WA
07
2,650
8,822
711
WA
08
3,966
13,204
1,065
WA
09
2,534
8,434
680
WI
01
4,468
14,874
1,676
WI
02
2,197
7,314
825
WI
03
2,458
8,184
923
WI
04
4,473
14,892
1,679
WI
05
4,097
13,640
1,537
WI
06
2,486
8,278
933
WI
07
2,263
7,536
849
WI
08
2,612
8,695
980
WV
01
1,371
4,564
474
WV
02
2,333
7,768
807
WV
03
1,263
4,204
437
WY
00
1,109 2,432,900
3,691 8,100,000
317 800,000
United States (rounded)
2/17/2009
13 of 14
Projected Foreclosures by Congressional District
NOTES 1
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts were estimated using the McDash mortgage database. Data aggregated based on latest available matching of zipcodes to Congressional district (109th Congress). Total of 22,530,041 first lien mortgages secured by single family house, condo, townhome, or multifamily home were analyzed for this purpose. All the mortgages are outstanding by the middle of 2008. For any of the mortgages, if it is in foreclosure process, or if it has at least three late payments for the past 12 months by the middle of 2008, the mortgage is projected to foreclose eventually. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was aggregated to Zip code level. Zip codes were then assigned to congressional districts. # of mortgages projected to foreclose was then aggregated from Zip code level to congressional district level weighted by portion of the Zip code in the congressional district. Finally, # of mortgages projected to foreclose for congressional districts are divided by the total of US projected foreclosures to get the share of projected foreclosures for congressional districts. Districts that are represented in the McDash data in significantly greater proportion than their share of the overall housing market may show an overly high foreclosure projection. 2
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by projections of national foreclosures in 2009 (2,432,900). This estimate is based on the annualized run rate of foreclosure starts reported in 3Q 2008 MBA National Delinquency Survey, grossed up to reflect entire mortgage market (MBA National Delinquency Survey covers 80% of market). 3
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by projections of national foreclosures over next 5 years (8,100,000), reported by Credit Suisse. See Rod Dubitsky, Larry Yang, Stevan Stevanovic and Thomas Suehr, Foreclosure Update: over 8 million foreclosures expected, Credit Suisse (December 4, 2008) 4
Shares of projected foreclosures for congressional districts multiplied by Moody’s Economy.com projected reduction in national foreclosures due to court-supervised modifications (800,000.) See Elizabeth Williamson and Ruth Simon, Plan to Cut Foreclosure Rate Clears Key Hurdle, The Wall Street Journal (January 9, 2009) available at http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123144562914865337.html?mod=todays_us_page_one
5
Rod Dubitsky, Larry Yang, Stevan Stevanovic and Thomas Suehr, Bankruptcy Law Reform: A New Tool for Foreclosure Avoidance, Credit Suisse (January 26, 2009).
2/17/2009
14 of 14
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