Consuemr Sentiment July 2009pdf
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Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index July 2009 Table 1: Consumer Sentiment Index
Seasonally Adjusted*
Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
120.8
79.0
Trend** 117.8 83.3 See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
100.1
109.4
9.3
38.5
99.4
104.7
5.4
25.7
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 9.3 per cent in July to 109.4 from 100.1 in June. This is the second consecutive month that the index is above the 100 mark showing that optimists out-weigh pessimists compared to this time last year.
Consumer sentiment rose in July …with significant improvement in the index representing economic conditions in the next 12 months
Four of the five component indexes rose in July (see Table 2) with the two largest increments of 19.6 per cent and 15.7 per cent, respectively, recorded by the indexes reflecting economic conditions in the next 12 months and in the next 5 years. However, the index reflecting family finances vs a year ago declined slightly by 0.9 per cent. Overall, the expectations index increased by 12.0 per cent while the current conditions index rose by 5.1 per cent. Improvements in consumer sentiment were recorded in all groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3) except for those with an annual income below $20K. Notable improvements of greater than 15 per cent were registered by respondents in the occupation group: labourer and operator, and in the household income group: $20K to $40K. This month’s survey was conducted in the week where “Fair Work Australia” replaced “Work Choices”. Interestingly, the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the ALP was above 100 while the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the Coalition was below 100. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Jul-03
Trend Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
102.4
63.7
82.4
81.7
-0.9
28.3
Family finances next 12 months
116.9
87.7
113.8
117.2
3.0
33.6
Economic conditions next 12 months
128.6
62.9
85.2
101.8
19.6
62.0
Economic conditions next 5 years
110.5 145.5
92.6 88.2
105.5 113.4
122.0 124.1
15.7 9.5
31.8 40.8
123.9 118.7
75.9 81.1
97.9 101.5
102.9 113.7
5.1 12.0
35.6 40.3
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions. Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
Male
125.6
82.4
102.2
115.1
12.6
39.7
Female
116.2
75.9
98.0
104.0
6.2
37.2
18-24
122.4
94.8
103.7
116.6
12.5
22.9
25-44
124.2
77.3
102.0
112.2
9.9
45.1
Over 45
117.6
76.7
97.5
105.4
8.1
37.5
Tenant
117.2
84.0
107.6
116.5
8.4
38.7
Mortgagee
123.6
76.1
101.1
109.6
8.4
44.1
Wholly owned
120.5
78.9
95.1
106.1
11.6
34.5
Coalition
134.9
73.1
94.9
99.2
4.5
35.8
ALP
117.2
86.1
104.3
118.9
14.0
38.1
Manager/prof.
127.5
76.6
101.1
110.7
9.4
44.5
Paraprof./trades
123.2
77.2
97.0
110.5
14.0
43.1
Sales/clerical
125.0
82.8
109.0
110.4
1.3
33.3
Lab./operator
123.5
74.1
97.2
113.1
16.4
52.6
Not working
112.7
80.8
97.7
107.6
10.1
33.2
Up to $20K
97.0
76.1
106.1
100.1
-5.7
31.5
$20 to $40K
118.7
78.3
96.0
111.0
15.7
41.7
$40 to $60K
126.0
83.3
96.2
107.9
12.1
29.6
Over $60K
129.7
78.5
101.9
111.0
8.9
41.4
Metropolitan
120.9 120.0
82.4 74.4
101.0 98.7
107.7 111.7
6.7 13.2
30.7 50.2
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months
3.4
7
100
100
80
80
2
1.4
-3 0.4
-8
-0.6
Retail sales growth (LHS)
Trend
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6
60 Jul-03
-18
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Index
140
120
120
100
100
80 Jul-05
140
Jul-07
Index
Jul-09
120
100
100
80
80
Trend
140
120
100
100
80
80
Jul-05
60
SA
40 Jul-03
SA Jul-07
Jul-05
Jul-07
40 Jul-09
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items
120
60 Jul-03
140
120
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years
Trend
60 Jul-09
Jul-07
SA
80 Jul-03
Jul-05
Index
60
Trend
SA
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
140
120
12
2.4
140
Index
120
% change, 1 quarter lead
60 Jul-09
160
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80 60 Jul-03
Trend Jul-05
80
SA Jul-07
60 Jul-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia. © 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index 140 Optimists - pessimists +100
130
110
90
SA 70 Jul-03
Index
Trend Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Index
Index
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
140
Mortgage 60 Jul-03
140
Jul-05
60 Jul-09
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100 Metro Non metropolitan
80
60 Jul-03
Jul-05
80 Less than $20,000
Home owner Jul-07
Jul-07
Released: 8 Jul 2009 Interview period: 29 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 Sample size: 1200
80
60 Jul-09
60 Jul-03
160
140
Jul-05
$60,000+ 60 Jul-09
Jul-07
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80 60 Jul-03
Coalition
Jul-05
ALP
Jul-07
80 60 Jul-09
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
Seasonally Adjusted*
Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
120.8
79.0
Trend** 117.8 83.3 See footnote below for discussion on the seasonal adjustment process.
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
100.1
109.4
9.3
38.5
99.4
104.7
5.4
25.7
The Westpac – Melbourne Institute Consumer Sentiment Index increased by 9.3 per cent in July to 109.4 from 100.1 in June. This is the second consecutive month that the index is above the 100 mark showing that optimists out-weigh pessimists compared to this time last year.
Consumer sentiment rose in July …with significant improvement in the index representing economic conditions in the next 12 months
Four of the five component indexes rose in July (see Table 2) with the two largest increments of 19.6 per cent and 15.7 per cent, respectively, recorded by the indexes reflecting economic conditions in the next 12 months and in the next 5 years. However, the index reflecting family finances vs a year ago declined slightly by 0.9 per cent. Overall, the expectations index increased by 12.0 per cent while the current conditions index rose by 5.1 per cent. Improvements in consumer sentiment were recorded in all groups disaggregated by demographic characteristics (see Table 3) except for those with an annual income below $20K. Notable improvements of greater than 15 per cent were registered by respondents in the occupation group: labourer and operator, and in the household income group: $20K to $40K. This month’s survey was conducted in the week where “Fair Work Australia” replaced “Work Choices”. Interestingly, the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the ALP was above 100 while the sentiment of respondents who would vote for the Coalition was below 100. Chart 2: Current Conditions Index minus Expectations Index***
Chart 1: Consumer Sentiment Index Index
20
Optimists - pessimists +100
135
115
95
SA 75 Jul-03
Trend Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Index
10
0
-10
-20 Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________ * In June 2006 we moved to reporting seasonally unadjusted series after we conducted a series of tests on the data which indicated no statistical evidence of seasonality. However, further research showed that the January monthly changes were, in general, significantly larger than the average monthly changes for the rest of the year. Consequently, we have adopted a new methodology to filter the raw data for the regular large monthly movements in January. This new filtered series is our new seasonally-adjusted (SA) CSI. **Trend for the latest month is based on 2-month moving average while the rest are based on 3-month centred moving average. ***The difference between these two indices provides an indication of consumers’ perception of the state of the economy now and in the future. A positive (negative) value implies that consumers view current conditions more (less) favorably compared to the future.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 1
Table 2: Consumer Sentiment Index – component questions (SA) Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
Family finances vs a year ago
102.4
63.7
82.4
81.7
-0.9
28.3
Family finances next 12 months
116.9
87.7
113.8
117.2
3.0
33.6
Economic conditions next 12 months
128.6
62.9
85.2
101.8
19.6
62.0
Economic conditions next 5 years
110.5 145.5
92.6 88.2
105.5 113.4
122.0 124.1
15.7 9.5
31.8 40.8
123.9 118.7
75.9 81.1
97.9 101.5
102.9 113.7
5.1 12.0
35.6 40.3
Good or bad time to buy major h’hold items Current Conditions Index* Expectations Index**
Percentage who reported that they were optimistic minus the percentage who reported that they were pessimistic plus 100. *Average of the two component indices that relate to current conditions. **Average of the three component indices that relate to expected conditions. Table 3: Consumer Sentiment Index – by demographic characteristics (SA)
Gender By age
By home ownership
By Fed. voting intention By occupation
By household income p.a.
By area
Jul 2007
Jul 2008
Jun 2009
Jul 2009
% change on Jun 2009
% change on Jul 2008
Male
125.6
82.4
102.2
115.1
12.6
39.7
Female
116.2
75.9
98.0
104.0
6.2
37.2
18-24
122.4
94.8
103.7
116.6
12.5
22.9
25-44
124.2
77.3
102.0
112.2
9.9
45.1
Over 45
117.6
76.7
97.5
105.4
8.1
37.5
Tenant
117.2
84.0
107.6
116.5
8.4
38.7
Mortgagee
123.6
76.1
101.1
109.6
8.4
44.1
Wholly owned
120.5
78.9
95.1
106.1
11.6
34.5
Coalition
134.9
73.1
94.9
99.2
4.5
35.8
ALP
117.2
86.1
104.3
118.9
14.0
38.1
Manager/prof.
127.5
76.6
101.1
110.7
9.4
44.5
Paraprof./trades
123.2
77.2
97.0
110.5
14.0
43.1
Sales/clerical
125.0
82.8
109.0
110.4
1.3
33.3
Lab./operator
123.5
74.1
97.2
113.1
16.4
52.6
Not working
112.7
80.8
97.7
107.6
10.1
33.2
Up to $20K
97.0
76.1
106.1
100.1
-5.7
31.5
$20 to $40K
118.7
78.3
96.0
111.0
15.7
41.7
$40 to $60K
126.0
83.3
96.2
107.9
12.1
29.6
Over $60K
129.7
78.5
101.9
111.0
8.9
41.4
Metropolitan
120.9 120.0
82.4 74.4
101.0 98.7
107.7 111.7
6.7 13.2
30.7 50.2
Non- Metro.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 2
Chart 3: Changes in Consumer Sentiment and Retail Sales Growth* % Seasonal adjusted, centred 3 month moving average, 03/04 prices
Chart 4a: Family Finances Last 12 Months
3.4
7
100
100
80
80
2
1.4
-3 0.4
-8
-0.6
Retail sales growth (LHS)
Trend
-13
Quarterly change in consumer sentiment (RHS)
-1.6
60 Jul-03
-18
Jun-04
Jun-05
Jun-06
Jun-07
Jun-08
Jun-09
Index
140
120
120
100
100
80 Jul-05
140
Jul-07
Index
Jul-09
120
100
100
80
80
Trend
140
120
100
100
80
80
Jul-05
60
SA
40 Jul-03
SA Jul-07
Jul-05
Jul-07
40 Jul-09
Chart 4e: Time to Buy Major Household Items
120
60 Jul-03
140
120
Chart 4d: Economic Conditions Next 5 Years
Trend
60 Jul-09
Jul-07
SA
80 Jul-03
Jul-05
Index
60
Trend
SA
Chart 4c: Economic Conditions Next 12 Months
Chart 4b: Family Finances Next 12 Months
140
120
12
2.4
140
Index
120
% change, 1 quarter lead
60 Jul-09
160
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80 60 Jul-03
Trend Jul-05
80
SA Jul-07
60 Jul-09
*Source: Original Retail Sales deflated by the Consumer Price Index - ABS Catalogue No. 8501.0, Retail Trade: Australia and ABS Catalogue No. 6401.0, Consumer Price Index: Australia. © 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 3
Chart 5: Current Conditions Index
Chart 6: Expectations Index 140 Optimists - pessimists +100
130
110
90
SA 70 Jul-03
Index
Trend Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Chart 7a: Consumer Sentiment by Home Ownership (SA) Index Index
Optimists - pessimists +100
Index
120
100
SA
Trend
80 Jul-03
Jul-05
Jul-07
Jul-09
Chart 7b: Consumer Sentiment by Income Group (SA)
Index
Index
140
140
120
120
120
120
100
100
100
100
80
80
80
140
Mortgage 60 Jul-03
140
Jul-05
60 Jul-09
Chart 7c: Consumer Sentiment by Area (SA) Index Index
140
120
120
100
100 Metro Non metropolitan
80
60 Jul-03
Jul-05
80 Less than $20,000
Home owner Jul-07
Jul-07
Released: 8 Jul 2009 Interview period: 29 Jun – 5 Jul 2009 Sample size: 1200
80
60 Jul-09
60 Jul-03
160
140
Jul-05
$60,000+ 60 Jul-09
Jul-07
Chart 7d: Consumer Sentiment by Voting Intention (SA) Index
Index
160
140
140
120
120
100
100
80 60 Jul-03
Coalition
Jul-05
ALP
Jul-07
80 60 Jul-09
Coverage: persons 18 years and over, all states and the ACT. Stratified by gender, age and location.
© 2009 The University of Melbourne, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research Page 4
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