Constructing The Future

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Constructing the Future

Built Environment and Transport Panel Construction Associate Programme

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Constructing the Future

Contents Chairman’s Foreword ...........................................................................................................4 1 CHANGING THE FUTURE OF CONSTRUCTION ........................................6 Overview and recommendations for action

2 FUTURE SCENARIO ...................................................................................................................9 The output from the issue groups’ deliberations

3 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR ACTION .....................................................................14 Recommendations in detail - the benefits and issues of each

4 MAKING THE FUTURE HAPPEN................................................................................27 Summary

5 ANNEX 1...............................................................................................................................................28 Aims, objectives and methodology

6 ANNEX 2...............................................................................................................................................29 Panel membership

7 The Foresight Programme...........................................................................................31

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Chairman’s Foreword

“For I dipt into the future, far as human eye could see, Saw the Vision of the world, and all the wonder that would be.” Professor Tim Broyd Chairman

Tennyson

Construction is one of the most important industries in any developed country, not only in economic terms but also in the way it helps shape the built environment and provides the physical infrastructure for civilized society. Despite its sometimes tarnished image, the industry has always excelled at managing complex programmes, often involving groups of people necessarily brought together for one-off projects and working in hazardous or inhospitable places. As a result, the industry has developed both flexibility and good skills in problem solving. What it is not so good at, however, is planning for the future. Until recently, this lack of forward thinking has been practically a virtue. With uncertain cycles of demand, the ability to respond quickly to changing economic drivers has perhaps rightly been seen as more important than scanning ahead. The signs are that that is now changing. With construction clients increasingly seeking ‘lifetime’ solutions provided by stable supply chains, and the growing importance of both sustainability and globalisation, there is now both the opportunity and the need for the industry to think ahead.

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Constructing the Future

Tennyson wrote Locksley Hall, from which the words opposite have been drawn, at a time when dipping into the future generally required a crystal ball. These days we are learning to use structured approaches within a national initiative known as Foresight to think intelligently about the issues that will affect the future up to 20 years hence - not to predict what will happen, but rather to prepare for it and influence it as much as we can. Over the past few months, people from a broad spectrum of construction industry backgrounds have been employing such techniques. Their aim has been to develop sets of issues that will need to be addressed if the industry is to answer the needs of its customers, its users and its workers. The results are set out in this document, and include the responses from a widespread consultation exercise conducted last Autumn. I hope the findings will stimulate a debate both nationally and within your own organisation. We have concentrated on some of the big issues - housing, re-use of buildings, globalisation, sustainability, the use of IT and site safety. The Construction Associate Programme (CAP) forms part of the wider Foresight Built Environment and Transport Panel, which has reported separately. It also doubles as the Futures theme group of CRISP (the Construction Research & Innovation Strategy Panel), through which it is linked to the entire construction industry. In a very real sense, the future doesn’t just happen, but is largely the work of mankind. It is up to us - all of us - to decide whether we want to help create the future or just to be changed by it. Seen in this light, Foresight is not fanciful academic dreaming, but hard-nosed business reality.

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1 Changing the future of construction Construction is facing an era of rapid and unprecedented change in the next 20 years. Consequently there is an urgent and vital need to address those key issues which will most significantly impact on the construction industry and the way in which it contributes to our society and the economy as a whole in the future. As a sector of economic importance construction industry business is currently worth £65 billion per annum1 and employs in excess of 1.4 million people2. It comprises 186,000 SMEs and includes 165,000 private contracting firms. In the next ten to twenty years they will all be faced with immense challenges as a result of new technologies and materials, different operational processes and intensifying cross border competition. The industry will also need to respond to a changing Britain, with climate change, traffic impact and a revolution in computers and information technologies, amongst other impacts, creating new and different demands, influencing demographic changes and altering life styles.

Positive benefits The pace of change will be fast and all-embracing. It will create more and greater business opportunities than ever before, both at home and overseas. It will be highly dependent on information sharing, customer-centric thinking, electronic commerce and co-operation at every level throughout an integrated supply chain. It will also embrace a changed cultural thinking that impacts on and benefits numerous aspects of the user environment. To ensure we all fully benefit from these advances requires a continuing significant shift in practices and attitudes within the industry and in the quality it delivers. It also needs to overcome existing problems with customer dissatisfaction and improve the way its capability is perceived and understood by both public and private sectors.

Need for action The advantages of positive action are immense, delivering - amongst other benefits - better housing, improved living and working conditions, lower construction costs, effective environmental sustainability and a construction industry that is globally competitive and profitably sound. This report embraces ideas which look twenty years to the future. Yet, if the construction industry is to master this future, action needs to be taken now, for in construction planning terms twenty years is almost upon us. Consequently, if we are to see a significant improvement in the industry’s value-added impact on the built environment in that time, then the bulk of the proposals in this report need to be in place within 10 years or less. It is a major undertaking involving the whole of the construction industry and beyond.

Unified response Because the key to the future lies in achieving an integrated approach throughout the entire construction process, the recommendations in this report cannot simply be each viewed in isolation. They require unified and collective response, not piecemeal reaction, because the future implies significant change at every level of the industry and not merely for larger companies and enlightened thinkers. 1 National Audit Office report, ‘Modernising construction’, January 2001. 2 DETR Construction Statistics 2000.

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Our recommendations emphasise the need for Government, professional and trade bodies, academia and the financial institutions to work closely with the construction industry to determine how best they can help the sector to deliver the changes that all of society can benefit from in the future. This report contains nine key recommendations for action. It also identifies those sectors and groups who need to act and work together to realise these crucial needs. Essentially it requires action by everyone.

RECOMMENDATIONS 1. Promote ‘smart’ buildings and infrastructure Accelerate the introduction of new technologies, ‘intelligent’ products, standardised, pre-assembled components and advanced materials into every level of the built environment. This will create new business opportunities, improve living / working environments and enable information feedback to improve construction quality. 2. Improve health and safety Improve the health and safety of people working on site. Enhance safety awareness and thinking throughout the construction process - design, manufacturing, build, operations and maintenance. Ensure better safety training, health monitoring and near-miss reporting, and introduce safety-driven construction automation. This will save lives, minimise health problems and improve productivity. 3. Enable supply chain integration Advance technology-driven thinking and practice across design, production, build, operations and maintenance. Joining up web-enabled supply chain processes and communication standards will cut construction costs and promote seamless customer solutions throughout the construction lifecycle. 4. Invest in people Improve the learning and welfare of people in the industry. Define future people skills and integrate education, knowledge and learning throughout the construction process - design, production, building, operations and maintenance. Investing in lifelong learning, knowledge management and the welfare of people, will enhance industry standards, improve profitability and attract better people to the industry. 5. Improve existing built facilities Improve renovation and repair methods and practices. Ensure Research and Development (R&D) looks specifically at technologies and components for repair and refurbishment. Better refurbishment ‘processes’ and improved standards for their supply will enhance living conditions and add value to existing built facilities. 6. Exploit global competitiveness Recognise the impact of globalisation and exploit flexible, collaborative, business frameworks and information sharing. Helping all construction businesses, from research and design to manufacturing

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and supply, to cope with globalisation and to harness the technology required to manage it will improve business co-operation and create competitive advantage. 7. Embrace sustainability Sustainable construction and whole-life principles will increasingly be client-driven. By shifting its culture to embrace sustainable thinking at every level, the industry can save energy, reduce waste and pollution and cut the lifetime costs of property ownership. 8. Increase investment returns Seek innovative methods of demonstrating the value of built assets and lessening project risk. By better understanding ‘risk and reward’ principles the industry will increase profitability, improve the way it is perceived and valued, and encourage new types of funding and investment. 9. Plan ahead Anticipate and plan for change. Greater awareness of the cyclical nature of construction economics, better long-term strategic thinking, future forecasting and co-ordinated planning will enable the industry to better meet future customer needs, remain competitive and improve its contribution to the UK economy.

AUDIENCES AND SECTORS AFFECTED  Architects and designers

 Government

 Component / materials suppliers

 IT and technology

 Consultants

 Insurance companies / insurers

 Contractors / sub-contractors

 Manufacturers

 DIY industry

 Planning authorities

 Education / academia

 Plant industry

 Financial institutions / funders

 Property owners / occupiers

 General public

 Researchers

All of these audiences are affected in some way or other by every recommendation. Everyone is responsible in one way or another for their successful implementation. Inevitably it may be thought that the onus on action rests with some groups more than others. However, to ensure a healthy, profitable and competitive construction industry for the future, each one of these audiences needs to recognise that they have an important role to play in bringing about the changes highlighted in this report. Consequently, no one group should take the view that action is the responsibility of the others. Each should assess the contribution that they can make, if necessary co-operating with the others to achieve the desired results - after all collaboration and co-operation are vital needs for a revitalised construction industry of the future.

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2 Future scenario How construction could change To determine what might drive future construction need and to assess the influences of technology and other developments, the Construction Associate Programme established a number of study groups to examine the issues embracing:  Housing  Repair, refurbishment and re-use of facilities  Sustainable materials  Information and communications technology (ICT)  Business, globalisation and commerce  Safe construction This resulted in a consultation document that set the scene for the future3. It was made available to a wide range of interested parties and the numerous responses received were taken into account in preparing the recommendations in this report. From this, given that the recommendations in this report are fully actioned, we can portray here an optimistic potential future scenario for UK construction, as follows.

The new face of Britain Because only a small percentage of the UK’s built stock is ever replaced each year, within the next 20 years much of the built environment will comprise of what already exists and that which is already in the early stages of planning. Forecast demand for new homes during the period is some 3.8 million units4, whilst the existing housing stock of 21 million homes will also require significant upgrading. With an increasingly elderly population more dependent on a largely older workforce, by 2010 we can expect greater variations in the make-up of our households, such as a rise in extended families and rented accommodation. New homes will intensify land use around London and there will be large urban regeneration schemes on brownfield sites in less popular areas. The UK workforce will be more educated, influenced by advances in information and communications technologies (ICT), especially the Internet. We will see more localised working/living communities and home/office environments. Working relationships will range from networks of many small firms and sole traders linked by ICT to multi-faceted, mega-multinational firms owned by their workforces. Climate change will impact on Britain, bringing with it new considerations in planning for and building facilities. So too will increasing traffic volumes affect people’s work and leisure patterns and shape construction needs. Changing UK demographics will alter the level and type of skills available, and a reduction in the number of younger people in the workplace will impact on labour availability in the construction sector. Increased knowledge and technology-based skills will influence all sectors of society, changing education, healthcare and social services and the construction of schools, hospitals and community facilities. 3 Foresight consultation document, ‘Building our Future’, DTI publication, September 2000. 4 Towards an Urban Renaissance; Lord Rogers, 1999.

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New construction materials and components will deliver improved living conditions, with technology integrated into the fabric and construction of buildings to improve environmental control and health monitoring and support for the disadvantaged. The housing market and housing design, driven by new forms of capital investment and funding from the private sector, will be more economically flexible and adaptable. With increasing land shortages, regeneration and new planning needs will be more complex, with greater housing densities made more desirable through innovative spatial design solutions. Greater emphasis will be placed on whole-life appraisal, with planning considerations taking a longer-term view.

Whole-life thinking Regeneration and redevelopment pose environmental implications in terms of land contamination and demolition waste. Materials used in building currently account for 40% of natural resource use, 30% of CO2 emissions and 40% of waste5, and are used in buildings taking up 45% of the UK’s energy use6. In the future the impact of global warming will need to be met by flexible whole-life sustainable approaches to construction, resulting from improved waste and energy management, land and materials re-cycling, new materials, and better construction practices delivering economic, environmental, social and business benefit. Decisions made by Government and business in response to the way we live, work, travel and use resources will incorporate clear thinking about effective sustainability in energy use, in planning and land use, and in construction materials and practices. Whole-life costing - already being used with Private Finance Initiative (PFI) and prime contracting projects - will cut the costs of buildings management and insurance through pre-planned and proactive property service management and new maintenance approaches for public and commercial premises and the private housing sector. In the future facilities management requirements, complete with life-time costconsiderations ‘designed-in’ to construction projects, will be planned and agreed with clients at the outset. Clients of the future will generally have a greater input into design, production, construction and facilities management processes. Better refurbishment, repair and maintenance (currently some 50% of the total annual construction spend) will maximise the already significant investment in expended energy which has been spent on the UK’s existing built stock. Home improvement and the UK DIY sector will increase, with new approaches aimed at improving the functional and environmental performance of private sector property. ‘Smart’ materials, monitoring technologies and sustainability initiatives will help landlords and home owners to maintain properties at levels which minimise energy consumption, avoid health problems and limit the deterioration of the housing stock. An environmental ‘value’ formula and guidelines for recycling, re-use and ‘trade-in’ will optimise the use of building materials and waste from brownfield demolition sites. It will also help to justify redevelopment decisions and account for contaminated land remediation costs in the planning and costing processes. Materials and components manufacturers, working to industry standards, will define 5 Sustainable Construction, CIB Publication 237, International Council for Building Research Studies. 6 Digest of UK energy statistics; HMSO, London.

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the ‘sustainable affordability’ of their products, whilst developers and the financial community will help the public and landlords to better understand the total life-time costs of property ownership, providing new methods of valuing and funding property in a sustainable way.

Technology, materials and processes New technologies are already reshaping the way we live, think and work, and ICT and constructionrelated technological developments will impact on every level of the construction industry and society in the next ten to twenty years. There will be a vast array of new products. New materials, such as composites, will improve component strength-to-weight ratios. Two key areas of research - those of biomimetics (the principle of using biology to solve engineering problems) and nanotechnology (the engineering of matter at a scale nearing that of atoms) will result in many new advances. Biomimetics, for example, will provide new materials, including some with biological self-repairing properties. Continuing miniaturisation of computing, communications and artificial intelligence devices, in particular enabled through nanotechnology, will provide ‘intelligent’ materials and ‘smart’ coatings. Nanotechnology will also enable sensors to be ‘embedded’ into buildings to remotely monitor building performance. The data collected by these intelligent materials and components will be fed back to designers giving them better information about the performance of the products they use and enabling them to reduce design-based defects in the future. Information integration, using ICT to share information across business processes, from marketing and procurement to design and site management, will allow more collaborative working and benefit everyone in the construction team. Computer models will improve performance in almost every dimension and computer simulation will be indispensable in design and whole-life cost appraisal. Computer Aided Design(CAD) visualisation will enable customers and designers to view and change designs instantly and quickly explore design options relating to quality, cost and time. Overall quality standards will benefit from computer-based design processes and virtual reality of site construction processes will notably improve safety. Customisation of standardised components will give ICT-literate house builders greater competitive advantage, with homes designed electronically using modular factory-produced components and defined interface standards for on-site assembly. Factory robots will use information directly from electronic customer orders to produce modular homes on demand and ICT will automate the whole design, factory production and site assembly process, integrating the supply chain from start to finish. Precision factory products will contain pre-commissioned engineering and electrical services and ICTenabled technologies. They will be fitted on-site by skilled operators aided by new machines for efficient quality-assured site assembly. The construction industry will openly share compatible information and common application standards, and customers will be able to quantify the true costs of total ownership and drive improvements in design and construction processes. Product quality, process efficiency and customer satisfaction will dramatically improve and re-work (a major contributor to client dissatisfaction) will be significantly reduced.

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Business, globalisation and commerce Sir John Egan7 highlighted the need for the UK construction industry to improve quality, cost and customer satisfaction and to develop the skills needed to become more competitive abroad. This implies high levels of design standardisation, greater collaboration and co-operation, and extended and improved education and training. In our future scenario the UK will have maintained its world reputation for innovative, bespoke buildings and civil engineering structures, and technically excellent engineering and project management. Britain’s world-class leading designers, engineers and project managers will continue to successfully export their services, using ICT to build on their strength in a greatly expanded networking market. With UK customers demanding higher design standards and technical sophistication, some UK manufacturers will take the lead in e-commerce-enabled global sourcing and factory-manufacture of large sub-assemblies. A number of these more innovative companies will be working with and offering designers new and innovative standard solutions that deliver added customer value and compete on price with the foreign competition undercutting traditional bespoke design. Design schools and professional institutions by endorsing standardisation will help students, the industry at large and clients to better understand the advantages. Many clients will use procurement systems such as PFI, design-build-finance-operate and framework agreements. They will be serviced by construction teams with financing and operational skills, supported by real and virtual partnerships using electronic communications. Location and distance will be irrelevant as management processes will be standardised to use technology for collaborative working. Clients, designers, contractors and suppliers will use common data standards to route contracts, specifications, drawings, schedules and project correspondence through the Internet. The data will also be available for post-construction activities, such as maintenance systems, refurbishment projects, demolition and recycling. In response to the greater intellectual and skills demands, construction courses will be more flexible and all-embracing, with internet-enabled remote-learning, knowledge attainment and continuous learning for all levels of the industry. With UK universities and colleges helping to drive widespread use of shared data, new components and materials and standards, UK ‘virtual’ construction courses will be in demand world-wide. Raised skills levels will be aided by skill-based entry barriers and a raised industry profile which portrays construction to the public as an exciting, intellectually challenging and rewarding career, rather than a labour intensive business. Throughout the industry, with collaborative working and new attitudes and practices prevailing, confrontation will be a thing of the past, replaced instead by cost reductions, quality improvements, increased customer satisfaction, environmental sustainability and commercial success for the UK industry.

7 Rethinking Construction. The Egan Report. DETR, 1998.

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Health and safety, education and training Some 80 fatalities, 4,000 major injuries and 10,000 3-day injuries occur every year in the construction industry. There is also an appreciable under-reporting of minor injuries and incidents of ill health. In 20 years deaths in construction will have reduced to almost zero and - considering the 20% year on year reduction target proposed by Egan - on-site serious injuries will have been cut by at least 80%. Workforce health issues resulting from long term exposure to building materials will be clearly understood, general health will be better and potential stress and overwork will be minimised through careful monitoring. There will be greater use of personal protective equipment, whilst the risks associated with construction sites and environmental decisions, such as those concerning brownfield developments, will be controlled through better safety policies and regulations. Better remote health monitoring and health education will alert employers and employees to potential health issues at an early stage. New construction processes will benefit safety due to better ways of working. Safety by design will be viewed as part of the normal design process. With the issues and actions needed to minimise risks being well understood, accident and illness prevention plans will be built into schemes at the design stage in response to design-led safety information being required by clients. A ‘no blame/no fault’ compensation system and better ‘near miss’ reporting by contractors will be accompanied by new rules for site management procedures. Scheme safety requirements will also include information feedback reporting to originating scheme designers and to a master industry reference database. Computer modelling and holographic imaging will allow prospective clients to view their buildings and plan changes prior to work taking place, and let them examine safety issues at the same time. Virtual reality will simulate site working environments and help minimise vehicle movements and risks in general. Modular design, off-site prefabrication, ‘Intelligent site vehicles’ and use of robotics will reduce the number of traditional tradesmen required, leading to fewer people on site and a reduction in accidents. Automation will also reduce the need for scaffolding and the number of people working at height. To ensure the necessary levels of competence in trade proficiency and health and safety there may need to be a universally accepted passport scheme to which all construction workers across Europe could be accredited.

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3 Recommendations for action A process of distillation Our recommendations for action have been distilled through a process of assessment, feedback and refinement, including:  Reports by the study groups which examined housing, repair and refurbishment, sustainable materials, ICT, business and commerce, and safe construction  Feedback from the many interested parties who read our initial consultation report  Final evaluation and assessment by the steering group This has resulted in the identification of nine distinct recommendations, which have been prioritised according to their potential impact and relative ease of achievement. The recommendations are as follows:

1. Promote ‘smart’ buildings and infrastructure Accelerate the introduction of new technologies, ‘intelligent’ products, standardised pre-assembled components and advanced materials into every level of the built environment. This will create new business opportunities, improve living / working environments and enable information feedback to improve construction quality. Technology will enable almost anything, so deciding how best to apply it is the critical skill. Significant long-term advantages that benefit sustainability and improve design by feeding back information will be achieved by using intelligent, data gathering materials and components. Costs will be saved through use of standard components and factory-automated pre-assembled units. Innovation is the key to the future success of construction, using technology as the enabler. The industry needs to embrace a complete technology and innovation culture change so that research and development is seen as the core value for the future of construction and essential to business success.

Pointers to an innovative future NEW COMPONENTS AND MATERIALS  New composite materials such as fibre cement and light alloys  ‘Smart’ technologies for identity, data collection and management  Decorating paint that electronically changes colour and warns of stress points  Super-strong paint for crumbling concrete that cuts repair / maintenance costs  Pre-wired looms which enable house wiring completion in one day

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BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ New business opportunities, especially for component manufacturers ✓ More efficient industry with higher productivity ✓ A key contributor to better living, future health and social care ✓ Improved competitiveness for UK services and products ✓ A global desire for products and services that are more reliable and effective ✓ Young people are likely to be attracted to an industry that is perceived to be at the leading edge of technological use

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  There is no shortage of technology, but the industry needs a greater will, more performance data, increased investment and a receptive environment to apply it  A concerted effort is required to effect rapid technology transfer from research into practical application  There is no shortage of good examples of technology in use. Many applications already exist in other industries, and these can be looked to for ideas.  Use of appropriate technology has to demonstrate that it can improve profitability  Key applications will be use of sensors and ‘smart’ robotics in construction and in adding ‘intelligence’ to components and materials so they can all communicate  Greater mechanisation, automation and off-site assembly with machine tools will significantly reduce construction costs  New opportunities in construction innovation lie in converging technologies where the mobile phone will also be the fax, the portable computer and camera  Third generation (3G) wireless technology will lead to less hard wiring and greater demand for in-built fibre optic connectivity  Biomimetics and nanotechnology concepts will enable us to challenge our conventional understanding of construction materials  Integration of computing into the built environment instead of it being restricted to the desktop or laptop computer will provide opportunities for greater information gathering as part of the construction life-cycle process

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2. Improve health and safety Improve the health and safety of people working on site. Enhance safety awareness and thinking throughout the entire construction process - design, manufacturing, build, operations and maintenance. Ensure better safety training, health monitoring, and near-miss reporting, and introduce safety-driven construction automation. This will save lives, minimise health problems and improve productivity. Nurture the workforce and improve safety to enable better recruitment and retention of people. It is well known that a healthy workforce is a happy one. Undertake more research into the long-term health impacts of construction site working. Automation in the shape of pre-fabricated component manufacturing and on-site robotic assembly, together with site modelling and simulation, have a major role to play in improving construction safety. Introduce a ‘no blame / no fault’ compensation system. This would encourage near-miss reporting and feedback on other site-related health issues.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Safety can be design-driven and hazardous jobs undertaken by robots ✓ A substantial reduction in deaths and serious injuries across the industry ✓ A reduction in longer-term health impacts on construction employees ✓ Qualitative as well as quantitative measures of productivity ✓ Better welfare provision and safety in the workplace will improve the perception of the industry by prospective joiners

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  Sixty percent of fatal construction site accidents can be attributed to decisions made before site work began  Increasing client awareness of the risks means that company safety records could become a factor in awarding contracts  Products and process are changing, meaning safety is also a changing issue  Increased multi-skilling of people and new construction techniques will require ongoing safety training  Safety issues can be integrated into technology-enabled design to minimise accidents on site  Growing use of site simulation could help assess risk and safety issues  Health monitoring technology is becoming more transportable and easier to use  Off-site manufacturing implies stringent factory safety practices, whilst pre-fabricated assembly may significantly reduce on-site activity  Criminal liability is becoming an increasing issue

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3. Enable supply chain integration Advance technology-driven thinking and practice across design, production, build, operations and maintenance. Joining up web-enabled supply chain processes and standards will cut construction costs and promote seamless customer solutions throughout the construction lifecycle. The integration of design into production and operation will join up areas such as quality of design, sustainability, standardisation, automated production and pre-assembly off-site, and lead to better supply chain management. Much of the industry currently deals with the construction project process as a series of sequential and largely separate operations undertaken by individual designers, constructors and suppliers who have no stake in the long-term success of the product and no commitment to its operating and maintenance costs. Supply chain improvements, enabled with new skills and talent will make a significant difference. Individual supply chains within the construction industry need to seriously assess and understand their roles and responsibilities in being part of an integrated process. For example, information on all construction products and materials should be available over the Internet in the form of standard coded data (typically IFCs - Industry Foundation Classes) describing specifications, stock availability, prices etc. The real skill in integration lies in how businesses manage and transform information, so that freedom of access to and seamless interchange of shared information is an important issue that the industry needs to consider. Standards for data exchange are a crucial issue, in particular to enable communications between different IT platforms.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Provision of ‘seamless’ solutions for the customer ✓ A significant reduction in costs and elimination of mistakes ✓ Improved levels of inter- and intra-company co-operation and collaboration ✓ Better information sharing, means more effective use of resources and less re-work across construction projects ✓ Greater transparency in construction and operation costs will enable better long term planning ✓ Projects can be ‘built’ in the computer using simulation and visualisation prior to production work starting on site ✓ A reduction in on-site timescales and traffic movements and better on-site co-ordination and management ✓ Environmental gains in both resources and energy use ✓ Increased availability of information and reduced costs of information gathering

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Pointers to an innovative future INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATIONS  Process, not project-based, construction teams linked by web-technology  5-D modelling (x,y,z, time and cost) and visualisation on hand-held computers  Use of the Internet for fast ‘intelligent’ planning submission / approval  Remote data collection on the maintenance and operation of facilities  Creation of supply-chain research partnerships with manufacturers

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  E-business is here to stay and the ‘open’ availability of essential information and data is important to facilitate on-line customer decision-making  Technology can bridge the traditional gap between design and production  Joined-up manufacturers, suppliers and off-site production can lead to greater resources for research and development into new products and processes  Industry standard models may enable automated information sharing across the entire value chain from products to projects  It is essential for the UK construction industry to play an active part in setting the world standards that everyone will eventually need to use  Specialist contractors, suppliers, contractors and the design team will use web-based project portals to manage the project and its associated information  For an industry susceptible to adversarial approaches, the issue of trust in the supply chain will be critical  Greater operating effectiveness and supply-chain efficiency needs new skills and talent that must be attracted through better prospects and changed perceptions

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4. Invest in people Improve the learning and welfare of people in the industry. Define future people skills and integrate education, knowledge and learning throughout the construction process - design, production, building, operations and maintenance. Investing in lifelong learning, knowledge management and the welfare of people, will enhance industry standards, improve profitability and attract better people to the industry. Construction organisations need to become learning organisations attuned to absorbing and using knowledge and providing for lifelong learning. Investing in human capital, to bridge the skills gap, and in research and development and knowledge awareness will help to maintain competitiveness. Information can be shared but knowledge is unique and personal. Increases in productivity arise from investment in education and training (OECD)8. Supporting and enabling knowledge management and information sharing will improve the intellectual strength and capability of organisations. Human capital - the skills and knowledge of a firm’s employees - is a company’s most important asset. Health issues impact on employees and not enough is known about the long-term effects of construction site working. A health monitoring / screening programme is needed and better health and safety training is required as part of the education and knowledge skills of everyone in construction. The industry needs to be responsible for assuring the health of its people. In ten to twenty years the construction industry will require a complete range of different skills. To meet these needs a re-think is required in the way that construction education is organised to deliver these skills. There may be a case for a ‘Rethinking construction education’ study as a follow-on to the Egan Report, because computer integration of construction processes implies a need for crossdisciplinary education. There is a need to continually raise the standards of people entering the industry at every level design, manufacture, building and maintenance. A major drawback to this is the current perception of construction.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Highly trained and motivated workers leading to more successful firms ✓ Better training will raise industry standards and improve employment prospects ✓ A healthier and happier workforce ✓ A improved image for the industry and attraction of more skilled people ✓ Research and development has long-term economic gains ✓ An innovative environment that will stimulate and create more and better ideas ✓ More flexible use of multi-skilled people ✓ A high-tech image delivering improved social benefits will make the industry more attractive as a career for young people

8 OECD Observer no 212 June/July 1998.

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Pointers to an innovative future METHODS AND PEOPLE  Creation of innovation teams and technology clusters  Wide use of virtual reality and simulation for safety purposes  Computers for on-site training and fitting guidance  Use of robots for hazardous or monotonous work  Intelligent clothing to communicate, protect and react to changing conditions

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  People availability. With a reduction in population growth9 there is a danger of a shortage in people availability for the future  With the an ageing population re-skilling is become an issue  Lifelong learning requires investment and commitment by employees and companies, as well as the industry and Government  An accreditation scheme for workers could acknowledge health and safety awareness and skills and knowledge capability  Web-based platforms are already facilitating knowledge management  Establishing vertical and horizontal skills alliances within and across different disciplines in construction industry education and training could foster increased collaboration and innovation for the future  A consequence of the industry having many small individual businesses is insufficient critical mass and motivation leading to a lack of investment in training and research and development  There is an imbalance of ethnic and female representation in the industry which may be due to the perceived image of the industry  A company’s people are its most valuable asset, yet the assets of human knowledge are not valued on the balance sheet. These may be included in take-over valuations and reflected in share prices, but are mostly undervalued  Improve the image of the industry and you invest in the quality of the people entering it.

9 Worldwide, Europe has the slowest population growth (0.2% for 1990-95 and -0.4% for 2045-50). Source: UN.

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5. Improve existing built facilities Improve renovation and repair methods and practices. Ensure that R&D (Research and Development) looks specifically at technologies and components for repair and refurbishment. Better refurbishment ‘processes’ and improved standards for their supply will enhance living conditions and add value to existing built facilities. With around half of the UK’s construction output consisting of repairs and maintenance to the existing built facilities we need to find new ways to exploit its potential and value through lateral thinking about alternative uses and the application of innovative technology. The ‘process’ of refurbishment needs to be more clearly identified and understood, and supported by efficient practices. Components for use in refurbishment need to be improved, with an emphasis on standardised, modular products. Much of the existing built environment was never designed for inclusivity, so there are few facilities for the elderly and disabled. Obsolescence in existing buildings and structures could be overcome by technical fixes or re-use. Data concerning their operation and maintenance costs, and better asset management, will play an important part in ensuring the sustainability of existing facilities.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Data collection will not only inform and help improve the maintenance and repair programme but could be fed back to the design stage ✓ Environmental issues of energy use and pollution could be eased by investing more in repair, maintenance, renovation and refurbishment of existing facilities ✓ There will be notable savings in the overall cost of repairs and maintenance ✓ A broader range of new innovative ideas will benefit the private housing market and expand the DIY sector

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  Sensors and remote monitoring technology could facilitate widespread data collection and management  New processes can result from seeking innovative responses to questions such as: “How do you re-wire an existing building more efficiently?”  Changing business practices will impact upon the built environment as demand flexibility and the latest technology increases  The rapid pace of change in ICT will impact upon existing stock, with huge increases in communication infrastructure being required  Much of the repair and maintenance work is carried out by small to medium-sized companies, which leads to fragmentation and slower take-up of new ideas  The criteria for and standards of quality need to be improved and maintained  The DIY market plays a big part in the repair and maintenance sector  There is a need for public and private sector champions to set the R&D agenda so that repair and refurbishment is not seen as a poor relation to new-build

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6. Exploit global competitiveness Recognise the impact of globalisation and exploit flexible, collaborative, business frameworks and information sharing. Helping all construction businesses, from research and design to manufacturing and supply, to cope with globalisation and to harness the technology required to manage it will improve business co-operation and create competitive advantage. Companies need to understand what global business means to them. There are realities to be faced and new strategies and alliances required to manage them. Opportunities exist for large and small firms to exploit global competitiveness through co-operation and information-sharing which builds knowledge. Component and construction suppliers have insufficient understanding of their international competitiveness. Mid-size companies need to change by dismantling their rigid structures and practices - many of which are not followed in other countries - in favour of co-operative networks and working together for greater flexibility. Today’s technology can be harnessed to help achieve this. The current pace of change makes it more difficult for an organisation to profit from an investment before a new competitor or development erodes the advantage. New opportunities will develop through firms being purposefully created for a brief life-span and designed to exploit a specific idea.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Firms will become more flexible and better at knowledge management ✓ Culture change will move towards a more co-operative ethos, rather than conflict ✓ A legal framework that supports connectivity between companies ✓ Continuing opportunities which enable UK designers to remain in demand ✓ Creation of greater opportunities for smaller specialist companies ✓ Cross-industry ‘virtual’ groupings including the involvement of universities ✓ Contractors will focus on their strengths and bolster weaknesses through collaboration

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  Globalisation is impacting on everything to the extent that Europe must now be considered a domestic market  Design on its own can be undertaken by anyone from anywhere in the world  Using the Internet, project platforms can be managed from and via any location  ICT can already provide the tools for data management and knowledge sharing  Web based systems can provide a platform to enable vertical and horizontal integration of construction processes within the value chain  Intellectual property may become an issue due to the accessibility of information on the world wide web  Increasing familiarity with SPVs (Special Purpose Vehicles) will allow the legal issues of collaboration to be safeguarded

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 Wider information availability and data standardisation communicated electronically will diminish misunderstanding  ICT-driven systems and knowledge sharing will need new skills and increase the intellect needed for competitive advantage

7. Embrace sustainability Sustainable construction and whole life principles will increasingly be client-driven. By shifting its culture to embrace sustainable thinking at every level, the industry can save energy, reduce waste and pollution and cut the lifetime costs of property ownership. The design, construction and operation of the built environment should be sustainable in its use, re-use and recycling of materials and energy. Whole life thinking needs to prevail from design and throughout manufacture, to build, operation, maintenance and disposal of facilities. Sustainability is increasingly being seen as embracing not just long-term environmental viability but also economic and social issues. Issues of sustainability will therefore increasingly be ‘market-driven’ and a concerted effort will be required to change the embedded culture of construction industry thinking to one which embraces sustainability at every level. Inherent within this change will be the need for sustainability to be able to be more clearly ‘valued’ and supported by the financial community, clients and public alike.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Reduced use of non-renewable energy sources ✓ A reduction in waste ✓ Lower ownership costs by making the costs of operation more transparent ✓ Uncertainty over future ownership costs will be ‘designed’ out ✓ Reduced pollution during construction, operation and disposal

Pointers to an innovative future SUSTAINABILITY  Site waste reduction with manufacturers required to collect / re-cycle materials  Embedded chips to contact repair / maintenance teams before breakdown  Efficient, low-cost micro power generators / fuel cells for local power networks  Smart concrete that senses real-time vibration of bridges and structures will highlight early repair requirements

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ISSUES TO CONSIDER  Learn about the technologies that other industries are using for sustainability  There is mounting evidence from other sectors to support the view that it is possible to look at projects holistically and throughout their lifecycle  People’s awareness of the importance of sustainability and thinking across the whole life of facilities will grow at an increasing pace  National and international governments are likely to increase their emphasis on ‘the polluter pays’ policies. They may legislate sustainability to save the planet  The rising cost of energy will be the catalyst for the discovery of new forms of renewable energy  As more and more clients embrace sustainability so might the financial institutions respond with new forms of construction funding that match whole-life thinking

8. Increase investment returns Seek innovative methods of demonstrating the value of built assets and lessening project risk. By better understanding ‘risk and reward’ principles the industry will increase profitability, improve the way it is perceived and valued, and encourage new forms of funding and investment. Change the perception of construction among institutional funders and the public to that of a high-tech industry delivering value through new methods of funding. The industry is in competition for investors’ money. However, because of the increasing number of new and different (non-construction) global opportunities being offered to investors securing funds is increasingly difficult. To compete for funding the construction industry needs to respond by being more innovative and by showing better assessment and understanding of risk. Increased risk sharing and higher levels of profitability would also make a notable difference to funders’ attitudes. Investors need greater confidence in the ability of the construction sector to deliver results that reflect a sensible level of risk linked to reasonable returns. The existing image of construction as seen by institutional investors and the public is not good and there is a notable image problem. Construction needs to change from being seen as a high-risk low-return sector to a low-risk high-profit industry. This will only come about with greater investment in innovation and in skilled people, as well as higher standards, better quality and increased profitability. The move from public to private investment in infrastructure will continue and new thinking is required to further support and encourage this.

BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Better financing solutions and higher yields through new a understanding of the values of built assets ✓ Reduced project risk and greater long-term stability

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✓ Higher quality and better construction standards ✓ A change of image from low-tech to high-tech will improve perception of the industry by its investors and customers

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  The move from public to private is happening all over the world and requires a change in investment culture  Changing the perception of the industry has to embrace all of society, from primary school to the elderly  New ways need to be found to express the ‘value’ of construction technology in financial and intellectual terms  Institutional funders are risk averse and are not always conducive to innovation and invention  Greater transparency is required by investors  Standardisation of construction processes and components would increase margins and reduce the risk of re-work being required  Improving industry communication is needed not only within the sector but in promoting its attributes to wider audiences as well

9. Plan ahead Anticipate and plan for change. Greater awareness of the cyclical nature of construction economics, better long-term strategic thinking, future forecasting and co-ordinated planning will enable the industry to better meet future customer needs, remain competitive and improve its contribution to the UK economy. The industry needs to anticipate and plan for the future through long-term strategic thinking, better forecasting and investment, and new customer framework agreements. This requires the industry to change the business structure to reflect a longer term perspective. Think about how buildings and facilities will be in twenty years, consider future technology trends and impacts, and determine the future shape of competition. These actions are needed so that construction companies can recognise and create opportunities for the future rather than just reacting to the present. The changing business structure should reflect local and global issues and drivers. It also needs to recognise the inherent lack of business skills within many smaller construction firms. The industry needs help in planning and preparing for the future, to ensure it is always in the best possible position to manage economic downturns and remain globally competitive.

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BENEFITS TO BE GAINED ✓ Longer-term strategies that are sustainable, not only environmentally but also for the companies involved ✓ An increase in business planning and management skills across the industry ✓ Expensive short-term gains replaced by a long-term ethos ✓ A better focus for customers and new forms of long-term agreements ✓ A healthy construction industry that contributes positively to the UK economy

ISSUES TO CONSIDER  Affordability of UK projects in overseas markets  Overseas firms will acquire and collaborate on projects in the UK. They will influence the UK system, introducing changes to design and construction processes and new ways of working, with different management and site skills  The small amounts of working capital required and low (academic and statutory) barriers to entry currently result in many smaller firms being unprepared for and unable to cope with shifting economic cycles  Industry standard forecasting would enable co-operative planning of product and service demand across the entire supply chain  Integrating construction processes and applying new technology will result in better information feedback and enable faster reactions  Specific UK Foresight programmes targeted at individual construction industry sub-sectors could help many firms to forecast, prepare for and better manage economic crisis  Forecasting involving the client base could result in better supply-side product and service alignment, longer-term alliances and more framework agreements  Multinational companies, trading across international boundaries, are increasingly undertaking the role of supplying components and materials

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4 Making the future happen Key theme Throughout this report if one key theme emerges it is the enabling power of technology which will allow information and practices to be joined up across the complete construction process to benefit everyone. However, this requires the entire industry, from large companies to the smallest contractor, to participate in the process. Integrated information and communications technology will improve design, cut costs, involve customers, add value to services, raise standards and quality, reduce re-work, curtail confrontation, prevent deaths and injury, improve existing facilities, contribute to sustainability and ensure that the UK construction industry is globally competitive. It needs to be applied positively and with appropriate urgency. For it to be effective it also requires a significant shift in attitudes from management at the top to trainees starting out. It means raising the quality and learning opportunities of people entering the industry at all levels, including those working on site, so that they can all maximise the use of technology and knowledge and the benefits they bring. This involves improvements in education, information sharing, knowledge management, learning facilities, working practices and standards.

Positive steps In order for our recommendations to have a beneficial impact on the built environment twenty years from now, they need to be in place within ten years. Many of these recommendations imply actions which impact on and overlap with one another (especially ICT). They should not, therefore, simply be each considered in isolation. Many require concerted and integrated action across all aspects of the industry and some require the involvement of other sectors, some of which can contribute positively towards future progress and change (financial institutions being one example). Some of the actions proposed, being interdependent, will only result in improvement when some of the other elements on which they depend are in place. Equally, some technologies will take a number of years to reach fruition, yet they need to be planned now. Many of these elements depend on partnering, collaboration and customer involvement. They also demand a changed way of thinking about construction generally, which is an issue that the whole industry needs to respond to.

Taking forward the action As much of the work in developing this report has resulted from joint actions with CRISP (the Construction Research & Innovation Strategy Panel), it follows that CRISP will carefully consider the part that it should now play in helping to fulfil the recommendations. However, that does not mean that the many other organisations that could and should contribute to the future of construction, should not equally play their part. They all need to carefully consider the role that they might play in helping to support and fulfil the recommendations outlined in this report.

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5 Annex 1 Aims, Objectives and Methodology The Construction Associate Programme (CAP) is a joint initiative between the Foresight Built Environment and Transport panel and the Construction Research & Innovation Strategy Panel (CRISP), a national forum for the development and promotion of research and innovation in the construction industry. Its remit was to:  Consider the construction industry, its process, people, technology and materials;  Explore the issues that affect us now and speculate on the issues up to 2020;  Produce a report that would stimulate debate;  Make recommendations for action. In developing the report CAP study groups examined the issues covering: Housing, Repair, refurbishment and re-use of facilities, Sustainable materials, Information and communications technology (ICT), Business, globalisation and commerce, and Safe construction. From this a consultation document, ‘Building our Future’ - URN 00/689 - was prepared and made available in September 2000 to a wide range of interested parties. The numerous responses received were taken into account in preparing these recommendations. Details of those views can be found on the DTI website at www.foresight.gov.uk

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6 Annex 2 Panel membership

Issues Groups

Composition of the Foresight Construction Associate Programme Panel and sub-groups

BUSINESS, GLOBALISATION AND COMMERCE

STEERING GROUP

Ronald Edmonson Waterloo Air Management

Professor Tim Broyd (Chair) WS Atkins

Max Halliwell BRE

Phil Burnell* EPSRC

Dr Tarek Hassan Loughborough University

Roger Flanagan University of Reading

Mary Mitchell Transco - NTS Operation Development

Malcolm Fletcher Halcrow

Russell Smith RCS

John Kerman Highways Agency

David Stein Morrison Construction Limited

Herb Nahapiet UKDS - resigned Autumn 2000

Dr David Bartholomew Co-ordinator

Vince Osgood EPSRC

HOUSING

John Stambollouian DETR

Barry Cleasby SPRU Sussex University

* replaced Vince Osgood

Susan Francis South Bank University

SECRETARIAT

David Holliday Ward Homes

Peter Guy* BRE

James Honour BRE

Mike King OST

Steve Irving Oscar Faber

* replaced Mike King

Ian Liddell WSP Development

REPORT AUTHOR

Rod Rennison W S Atkins Mobile Telecommunications

Eddie Coulter

Alistair Walker Watkins Gray International Richard Hodkinson Co-ordinator

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INFORMATION AND COMMUNICATION TECHNOLOGY (ICT)

Lisa Varey Thames Water Engineering Divison

Robert Amor BRE

Andrew Edkins Co-ordinator

Martin Betts University of Salford

SAFE CONSTRUCTION

Roy Bishop Laing Technology Group Limited

Trevor Allan HSE

Nygel Humphrey Waterloo Air Management

David Bevan Morrison Construction Limited

Charles McBeath Whitby Bird & Partnership

David Churcher CIRIA

Sebastian MacMillan Eclipse Research Consultants

Mike Dryburgh HSE

Dr Laurence Marsh Bovis Europe

Peter Hobson Bovis Lend-Lease

Royston Nutley Waterloo Air Management

Thouria Istephan Foster & Partners

Alan Penn University College London

Andy Wright Thames Water

Chris Woods Wates Construction

Bob Simpson Co-ordinator

Dr David Bartholomew Co-ordinator

SUSTAINABLE MATERIALS

REPAIR, REFURBISHMENT AND RE-USE OF FACILITIES David Allen Gardiner & Theobald David Bevan Hawkins-Brown Roger Hawkins Hawkins-Brown Carolyn Hayles BRE Dr Georg Herrmann University of Westminster Eunice Maytorena The Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, UCL Peter McLennan The Bartlett School of Graduate Studies, UCL Tim Quick Foster & Partners Simon Smith Whitby Bird & Partners David Stanley Wates Construction

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Suzy Edwards BRE Paul Livesey Castle Cement David Martin Corus plc Duncan Price Whitby Bird & Partners Roger Ridsdill-Smith Ove Arup Partnership Chris Senior London Underground Ltd John Southgate Railtrack Simon Vaughan Corus plc Anthony Wilson Oscar Faber Hywel Davis Co-ordinator John Goodburn Co-ordinator

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7 The Foresight Programme Foresight is about being ready for the future. The UK’s Foresight programme is the Government-led initiative that looks at what might happen in the future and what we need to do now to secure long-term competitive advantage and enhanced quality of life. Foresight brings together the voices of business, Government, the science base and others to identify the challenges and opportunities that we are likely to face over the next ten to twenty years or more. In doing so, Foresight aims to bring about a culture change for the better in the way business and the science base relate to each other and to the future. The programme was launched in 1993 following the white paper on science, engineering and technology, Realising our Potential. It has a panel-based structure and operates on a five-year cycle. The current round of Foresight began in April 1999 and work is being taken forward through three thematic and ten sectoral panels, each looking at the future for a particular area. All panels consider the implications of their conclusions for education, skills and training and sustainable development. This report - and those of the other panels - represent the culmination of over a year’s intensive research, debate and discussion. They provide the basis from which panels and others will work to help turn the recommendations into action.

Foresight panels:  Ageing Population

 Financial Services

 Crime Prevention

 Food Chain & Crops for Industry

 Manufacturing 2020

 Healthcare

 Built Environment & Transport

 Information, Communications & Media

 Chemicals

 Materials

 Defence, Aerospace & Systems

 Retail & Consumer Services

 Energy & Natural Environment The views expressed in this document should not be taken to represent those of the Office of Science and Technology or the Department of Trade and Industry. The views and recommendations expressed in this document represent the broad consensus reached through the work of the Construction Associate Programme, and its consultation with key stakeholders. They do not reflect the personal views of the members or the organisations they represent. The Office of Science and Technology or the Department of Trade and Industry does not accept responsibility for any action taken based on the views and recommendations in this document.

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Printed in the UK on recycled paper with a minimum HMSO score of 80. June 2001. Department of Trade and Industry. © Crown Copyright. http://www.foresight.gov.uk/ DTI Pub 5567 3k/06/01/NP. URN 01/884