Conditional Probability
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Year-End '09 S&P 500 (Cond. Prob.) Current Value Probability of Deep Recession Optimistic Value (in recession scenario) Probability of Optimistic Value Pessimistic Value Probability of Pessimestic Value Aggregate Value Probability of Depression Optimistic Value (in depression scenario) Probability of Optimistic Value Pessimistic Value Probability of Pessimestic Value Aggregate Value
Inputs 700 85% 900 25% 750 75% 669.38 15% 500 75% 350 25% 69.38
Estimated Year-end Value of S&P 500 (given probs.)
738.75
Estimated Return
5.54%
Inputs 700 85% 900 25% 750 75% 669.38 15% 500 75% 350 25% 69.38
Estimated Year-end Value of S&P 500 (given probs.)
738.75
Estimated Return
5.54%
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