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Can India adopt and implement a ‘One-Child Policy’? The paper aims to explore the question of whether India can adopt the One Child Policy in view of its population policies and with China’s seminal population policy serving as the point of reference. China’s One-Child Policy Borne with the task of regulating population in the single most populous country in the world, the Chinese government enforced a One Child Policy to limit the exacerbation of the growing population since the 1970s and 1980s through approaches which became progressively strategic especially after the regime of Mao Zedong in 1976 (a move that was deemed unnecessary, as will be later explained) during China’s period of opening up and reforming.1 Through the mere promotion of birth control and family planning, the Chinese population was already reaching the one billion mark by the late 1970s; in 1978, a formal policy was adopted allowing conception of not more than two children, or preferably just one; and gradually, in 1979, the limit began tending towards one. The One Child Policy was officially adopted on 25 September 1980 through a public letter published by the Communist Party of China.2 (This policy was not all-inclusive: ethnic minorities and handicapped firstborns were allowed to have more than one child). While the crisis and the rationale behind this policy (that the population was becoming too large for the country’s ability to sustain itself) reflect similar grounds, the contexts are highly nuanced. Problems with China’s One-Child policy
“One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 2 "One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 1
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Fundamentally, the communist state of China functions on the basis of ultimate power being wielded by the Paramount Leader. China is a relatively homogenous state with a closefunctioning unitary system of governance, which was closed off to the world until the late 20th century. India, on the other hand, is a quasi-federal democracy, posing a strong dichotomy of governance systems that compromises the common terrain on which policies in the two nations may be implemented. In other words, it is more difficult to pass radical reforms in complex democratic systems. It is also important to look at the means and results of the policy. In China, it has worked far better in urban than rural environments:3 a situation which, if it were to happen in the Indian scenario, given the distribution of population concentrated in the rural sector, would perhaps prove counter-productive with more urban scaling and rural expansion. China also offered several incentives for the policy: subsidies and employment opportunities, the latter of which would not work in India where employment and literacy opportunities are already severely outpaced by population, in contrast to China with a 98.6% literacy rate4 where a majority of kindergarteners take up ‘extra classes’. Methods of ‘forced abortions and sterilizations’ would meet with severe friction against the traditionally intertwined values Indian culture has with regard to child bearing. China has also experienced an exacerbated sex ratio, due to the general preference of having a male child over a female child- an issue India has faced since time immemorial. The policy, as happened in China, will worsen the gender-skewed, male-favouring ratio in the Indian demographic. Another important factor is the increase in aging population, which is being witnessed in China due to the starkly rising life expectancy since 1980. This forms the foremost aspect
3
"One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 4 “Literacy rate of Adult Males in India”. Trading Economics. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
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of the population crunch today. This may also be witnessed in India, which has a rising life expectancy even though we currently have the largest workforce population in the world.5 Births began to go unreported in China to evade penalties, after which obtaining education and employment was even more difficult. The penalty for the violation of the policy known as ‘social child-raising fee’ is dependent on the income of a Chinese citizen, and results in having to forsake a portion of income in the year of the child’s birth. In India, consequences would probably be similar: an imbalance percolating through the economic terrain wherein only the rich are able to give birth to more than one child. This is contradicted by the urban/rural expansion dichotomy stated above. China is now working to modify its one child policy due to the consequences it is facing. In a communist country where the state is the ultimate arbiter, enforcing the policy in such strict measure by the local authorities was seen as unnecessary when the people were already recognizing and taking into account the damage that over-population was creating in the country. In countries with rising affluence levels, fertility rates automatically go down, as did India’s in the same period although its economy did not quite keep up with that of China’s. In November 2013, after 35 years of the brutal social experiment, China relaxed the policy to allow single-child parents to bear another child. The ‘mini baby boom’ that was expected after the policy was further tweaked exceptions were made did not materialize due to the population crunch, further re-iterating the plight in a sort of viciously cyclical manner. In 2012, the labour force shrank for the first time in 50 years, and the fertility rate for the country is less than 1.6, 1.5 points below the stable level of 2.1.6 From ruthless enforcement,
“Life expectancy in India goes up by 5 years in a decade.” Sampath, Janani. The Economic Times. N.p., 18 Nov 2014. Web. 25 Aug 2015. 6 “Tales of the Unexpected.” The Economist. N.p., 11 June 2015. Web. 25 Aug 2015. 5
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authorities are now encouraging legal procreation and talk of the policy being replaced by a two child policy. In a democracy, enforcing such a policy would arguably be far more difficult without protests and riots. But with good education and healthcare becoming increasingly pricey, there is no doubt that measures must be taken to ensure population stability. India’s Population Policy In 1952, India launched a national family planning programme after which a decline in the death rates were not accompanied by corresponding drops in birth rates. Efforts at family planning experienced roadblocks and frustration which culminated in fruition only in the Emergency of 1975-77, where campaigns were geared to promoted sterilization. In 2000, an official National Population Policy was formulated, with many initiatives made through sterilization camps, welfare programs and planning schemes. However, it is widely held that no government has made productive headway in population policy. Today, India is projected to become the world’s most populous country by 2022. 7 However, as of 2011, 11 states have passed two-child policy laws.8 India requires a large drive towards accessible healthcare, food and social schemes before it can adopt such a large policy shift. In the sociological sphere, since traditional values are so deeply entrenched with the familial system, education would be required to play a significant role in enabling the masses understand the importance and benefits of such measures. In 2014, when both men and women were paid to sterilize themselves, 1,50,000 women signed up and only over 5000 men owing to the cultural stigma.9 Several socio-
“A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. 8 “India’s Two-Child Policy.” Page, Vanessa. Investopedia. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 24 Aug 2015. 9 “A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. 7
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cultural factors (the manifestations of which are seen in female infanticide, trafficking and so on) enmeshed intrinsically within the Indian context would need to be addressed. In a long-term perspective, because the one child policy would mean that fewer familial members are available to help raise the child, day-care services and provisions for more nursing homes to take the burden off of parents would also need to follow,10 which requires further expenditure that the Indian government would be faced with. The methodology of enforcement is also significant- negative repercussions such as bribing and coercion are likely to be resorted to. India thus presents the opposite end of the coin: Where China is experiencing a shrinking population in the background of an extremely high literacy rate, India has been enjoying a demographic dividend since the 1980s with the largest working population but staggeringly low literacy rates. The One Child Policy would also translate into higher taxes and inflation. The existing two-child policy has been aimed towards politicians to serve as examples to citizens, which has been seen as positive, but the harsher measures that some states have taken denying food and healthcare to third children is seen as harmful to the booming potential of the youth forming the backbone of the rising technology industry. It is argued that India is already organically heading towards a gradual population decline as education and growth is harnessed. Without entirely ignoring the Chinese paradigm, all Indian states are likely to benefit from the two-child policy in a keenly supervised manner of implementation at the local level. Economic progress will inevitably speed up with impetus given to the dangerously large
10
"One-child Proclivity." The Economist. N.p., 14 July 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015.
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population, but radical reforms, as attempted to convey in the essay, would only lead to a slippery slope of unintended and irrevocable consequences in a country where crime rates, trafficking, violence and female ;suicide is already rising. According to Super-Freakonomics author Steven Levitt, India already has 35 million more men than women.11 Policies should gear towards economic advancement and social independence of women, compounded by the addressing of the other fundamental socioeconomic problems India is grappling with. “A one-child policy is a terrible idea. Ultimately, the best form of contraceptive is development.”12 -Bibek Debroy, Indian Economist
Works Cited “A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. “India’s Two-Child Policy.” Page, Vanessa. Investopedia. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 24 Aug 2015. “Literacy rate of Adult Males in India”. Trading Economics. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Life expectancy in India goes up by 5 years in a decade.” Sampath, Janani. The Economic Times. N.p., 18 Nov 2014. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
11 12
“Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
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"One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 "One-child Proclivity." The Economist. N.p., 14 July 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. “Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Tales of the Unexpected.” The Economist. N.p., 11 June 2015. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
Can India adopt and implement a ‘One-Child Policy’? The paper aims to explore the question of whether India can adopt the One Child Policy in view of its population policies and with China’s seminal population policy serving as the point of reference. China’s One-Child Policy Borne with the task of regulating population in the single most populous country in the world, the Chinese government enforced a One Child Policy to limit the exacerbation of the growing population since the 1970s and 1980s through approaches which became progressively strategic especially after the regime of Mao Zedong in 1976 (a move that was deemed unnecessary, as will be later explained) during China’s period of opening up and reforming.1 Through the mere promotion of birth control and family planning, the Chinese population was already reaching the one billion mark by the late 1970s; in 1978, a formal policy was adopted allowing conception of not more than two children, or preferably just one; and gradually, in 1979, the limit began tending towards one. The One Child Policy was officially adopted on 25 September 1980 through a public letter published by the Communist Party of China.2 (This policy was not all-inclusive: ethnic minorities and handicapped firstborns were allowed to have more than one child). While the crisis and the rationale behind this policy (that the population was becoming too large for the country’s ability to sustain itself) reflect similar grounds, the contexts are highly nuanced. Problems with China’s One-Child policy
“One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 2 "One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 1
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Fundamentally, the communist state of China functions on the basis of ultimate power being wielded by the Paramount Leader. China is a relatively homogenous state with a closefunctioning unitary system of governance, which was closed off to the world until the late 20th century. India, on the other hand, is a quasi-federal democracy, posing a strong dichotomy of governance systems that compromises the common terrain on which policies in the two nations may be implemented. In other words, it is more difficult to pass radical reforms in complex democratic systems. It is also important to look at the means and results of the policy. In China, it has worked far better in urban than rural environments:3 a situation which, if it were to happen in the Indian scenario, given the distribution of population concentrated in the rural sector, would perhaps prove counter-productive with more urban scaling and rural expansion. China also offered several incentives for the policy: subsidies and employment opportunities, the latter of which would not work in India where employment and literacy opportunities are already severely outpaced by population, in contrast to China with a 98.6% literacy rate4 where a majority of kindergarteners take up ‘extra classes’. Methods of ‘forced abortions and sterilizations’ would meet with severe friction against the traditionally intertwined values Indian culture has with regard to child bearing. China has also experienced an exacerbated sex ratio, due to the general preference of having a male child over a female child- an issue India has faced since time immemorial. The policy, as happened in China, will worsen the gender-skewed, male-favouring ratio in the Indian demographic. Another important factor is the increase in aging population, which is being witnessed in China due to the starkly rising life expectancy since 1980. This forms the foremost aspect
3
"One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 4 “Literacy rate of Adult Males in India”. Trading Economics. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
Sircar 3
of the population crunch today. This may also be witnessed in India, which has a rising life expectancy even though we currently have the largest workforce population in the world.5 Births began to go unreported in China to evade penalties, after which obtaining education and employment was even more difficult. The penalty for the violation of the policy known as ‘social child-raising fee’ is dependent on the income of a Chinese citizen, and results in having to forsake a portion of income in the year of the child’s birth. In India, consequences would probably be similar: an imbalance percolating through the economic terrain wherein only the rich are able to give birth to more than one child. This is contradicted by the urban/rural expansion dichotomy stated above. China is now working to modify its one child policy due to the consequences it is facing. In a communist country where the state is the ultimate arbiter, enforcing the policy in such strict measure by the local authorities was seen as unnecessary when the people were already recognizing and taking into account the damage that over-population was creating in the country. In countries with rising affluence levels, fertility rates automatically go down, as did India’s in the same period although its economy did not quite keep up with that of China’s. In November 2013, after 35 years of the brutal social experiment, China relaxed the policy to allow single-child parents to bear another child. The ‘mini baby boom’ that was expected after the policy was further tweaked exceptions were made did not materialize due to the population crunch, further re-iterating the plight in a sort of viciously cyclical manner. In 2012, the labour force shrank for the first time in 50 years, and the fertility rate for the country is less than 1.6, 1.5 points below the stable level of 2.1.6 From ruthless enforcement,
“Life expectancy in India goes up by 5 years in a decade.” Sampath, Janani. The Economic Times. N.p., 18 Nov 2014. Web. 25 Aug 2015. 6 “Tales of the Unexpected.” The Economist. N.p., 11 June 2015. Web. 25 Aug 2015. 5
Sircar 4
authorities are now encouraging legal procreation and talk of the policy being replaced by a two child policy. In a democracy, enforcing such a policy would arguably be far more difficult without protests and riots. But with good education and healthcare becoming increasingly pricey, there is no doubt that measures must be taken to ensure population stability. India’s Population Policy In 1952, India launched a national family planning programme after which a decline in the death rates were not accompanied by corresponding drops in birth rates. Efforts at family planning experienced roadblocks and frustration which culminated in fruition only in the Emergency of 1975-77, where campaigns were geared to promoted sterilization. In 2000, an official National Population Policy was formulated, with many initiatives made through sterilization camps, welfare programs and planning schemes. However, it is widely held that no government has made productive headway in population policy. Today, India is projected to become the world’s most populous country by 2022. 7 However, as of 2011, 11 states have passed two-child policy laws.8 India requires a large drive towards accessible healthcare, food and social schemes before it can adopt such a large policy shift. In the sociological sphere, since traditional values are so deeply entrenched with the familial system, education would be required to play a significant role in enabling the masses understand the importance and benefits of such measures. In 2014, when both men and women were paid to sterilize themselves, 1,50,000 women signed up and only over 5000 men owing to the cultural stigma.9 Several socio-
“A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. 8 “India’s Two-Child Policy.” Page, Vanessa. Investopedia. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 24 Aug 2015. 9 “A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. 7
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cultural factors (the manifestations of which are seen in female infanticide, trafficking and so on) enmeshed intrinsically within the Indian context would need to be addressed. In a long-term perspective, because the one child policy would mean that fewer familial members are available to help raise the child, day-care services and provisions for more nursing homes to take the burden off of parents would also need to follow,10 which requires further expenditure that the Indian government would be faced with. The methodology of enforcement is also significant- negative repercussions such as bribing and coercion are likely to be resorted to. India thus presents the opposite end of the coin: Where China is experiencing a shrinking population in the background of an extremely high literacy rate, India has been enjoying a demographic dividend since the 1980s with the largest working population but staggeringly low literacy rates. The One Child Policy would also translate into higher taxes and inflation. The existing two-child policy has been aimed towards politicians to serve as examples to citizens, which has been seen as positive, but the harsher measures that some states have taken denying food and healthcare to third children is seen as harmful to the booming potential of the youth forming the backbone of the rising technology industry. It is argued that India is already organically heading towards a gradual population decline as education and growth is harnessed. Without entirely ignoring the Chinese paradigm, all Indian states are likely to benefit from the two-child policy in a keenly supervised manner of implementation at the local level. Economic progress will inevitably speed up with impetus given to the dangerously large
10
"One-child Proclivity." The Economist. N.p., 14 July 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015.
Sircar 6
population, but radical reforms, as attempted to convey in the essay, would only lead to a slippery slope of unintended and irrevocable consequences in a country where crime rates, trafficking, violence and female ;suicide is already rising. According to Super-Freakonomics author Steven Levitt, India already has 35 million more men than women.11 Policies should gear towards economic advancement and social independence of women, compounded by the addressing of the other fundamental socioeconomic problems India is grappling with. “A one-child policy is a terrible idea. Ultimately, the best form of contraceptive is development.”12 -Bibek Debroy, Indian Economist
Works Cited “A Misguided Approach to India’s Population Policy. The New York Times. N.p., 9 Aug 2015. Web. 21 Aug 2015. “India’s Two-Child Policy.” Page, Vanessa. Investopedia. N.p., 14 May 2015. Web. 24 Aug 2015. “Literacy rate of Adult Males in India”. Trading Economics. N.p., n.d. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Life expectancy in India goes up by 5 years in a decade.” Sampath, Janani. The Economic Times. N.p., 18 Nov 2014. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
11 12
“Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
Sircar 7
"One-child policy". Encyclopædia Britannica. Encyclopædia Britannica Online. Encyclopædia Britannica Inc., 2015. Web. 25 Aug. 2015 "One-child Proclivity." The Economist. N.p., 14 July 2014. Web. 20 Aug. 2015. “Should India Have a One Child policy?” Forbes India. N.p., 10 June 2010. Web. 25 Aug 2015. “Tales of the Unexpected.” The Economist. N.p., 11 June 2015. Web. 25 Aug 2015.
