Bandwidth Boom - Naruc Seattle - Bret Swanson - 07.22.09
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Bandwidth Boom
Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era
NARUC . Seattle . 22 July 2009 ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com | bretswanson.com
Bandwidth Boom
Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era
–– From Bandwidth Boom to Exaflood The new Internet paradigm Understanding the pace of technology Implications for public policy
Internet’s Three Phases • Phase One – Arpanet in 1969 • Phase Two – Net comes to the masses in 1995 via email and World Wide Web
• Phase Three – Now! Broadband means “the network is the computer” . . . Video ushers in the exaflood
Prefixes 3 10
kilo = 6 mega = 10 9 giga = 10 12 tera = 10 15 peta = 10 18 exa = 10 21 zetta = 10
The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: optical fiber with WDM > new single-fiber record of 32 terabits/second on 320 λ over 580 km Overwhelmed the serial nature of the existing CPU computer paradigm > Von Neumann bottleneck limits memory bandwidth > Too slow for optical packet networks, 3D graphics and HD video > Too darn hot . . . P = C × V2 × F NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: > optical fiber with WDM Spawns, complements, accommodates, and requires massive parallelism of: > GPUs with 800 parallel “stream processors” in 10 cores > NPUs with 100s of parallel “task optimized processors” (TOPs) > EPUs with millions of parallel arrayed processors (aka Googleplexes) > 4G wireless with hundreds of parallel sub-frequency bands (aka OFDM) NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
Bandwidth Boom U.S. Consumer Bandwidth 400000
Total U.S. Consumer Bandwidth
350000
800000
← 717 terabits per second
700000
gigabits per second
gigabits per second
300000
250000
200000
600000 500000 400000 300000
residential + wireless
200000
residential
100000
150000
0
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
8
0 20
wireless 100000
50000
0 00
20
01
20
2
0 20
3
0 20
04
20
05
20
20
06
20
07
08
20
Bandwidth Boom U.S. Consumer Bandwidth Per Capita 2500
2.35 megabits per second →
Between 2000 and 2008: •Total residential bandwidth grew 54x. •Total wireless bandwidth grew 542x. •Total consumer bandwidth grew 91x.
kilobits per second
2000
•Residential bandwidth per capita grew 50x. •Wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499x. •Total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84x, for a compound annual growth rate of 74%.
1500
residential
residential + wireless wireless
1000
500
0 00
20
01
20
2
0 20
3
0 20
04
20
20
05
20
06
07
20
08
20
What is an exabyte? • The Library of Congress holds about 20 million big books
• Each book is about 1 megabyte • The Library of Congress is thus 20 terabytes
• One exabyte is 50,000 Libraries of Congress
exaflood
2007 projection for 2015
Analyzing bandwidth and digital application trends, we projected a 56% compound annual growth rate through 2015 . . . . . .when U.S. IP traffic could reach: Movie downloads and P2P………………..….100 exabytes Video calling and virtual windows…………...400 exabytes “Cloud computing” and remote backup……....50 exabytes Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds……......200 exabytes Non-Internet “IPTV”……………………….100+ exabytes Business IP traffic…………………………….100 exabytes Other (phone, Web, e-mail, photos, music)…....50 exabytes Total…………………………1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte
Video conferencing –MSN Messenger Video Calling by mid-2007 generated 4 petabytes per month = to the entire Net in 1997 –Cisco’s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth –A one-hour conference call = 13.5 gigabytes –Just 75 of these calls would equal the entire Internet of 1990 –30 exabytes of telephone traffic each year –move to video-phones would mean 400 exabytes – at least – in the U.S., or 10x the size of the existing world Internet
U.S. Internet Traffic
TB/month
1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 199019911992 1993 1994
1995 1996
1997 1998
NARUC Summer Meetings
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com – bretswanson.com
0
Source: MINTS, Entropy Economics
10,000,000
U.S. Internet Traffic (log scale)
1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000
TB/month 100 10 1
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
NARUC Summer Meetings Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com – bretswanson.com
08
20
Source: MINTS, Entropy Economics
update
exaflood
YouTube > receives uploads of 13+ hours of video every minute > receives 18,720+ hours of video each day > streams ~150+ petabytes per month > streams ~3.5 terabytes every minute . . . every 13 min. = 1992 > HD YouTube would mean more than 18 exabytes per year, equal to total U.S. Internet traffic of 2008 > Netflix would ship about 7 exabytes of HD video each year Mobile revolution > 3 billion mobile phones / 1+ billion new devices per year > 1.9 billion camera phones / Nokia largest “camera” company > 1 billion iPhone App downloads in six months . . . 50,000 Apps > “omnichronnectivity” yields constant content creation and consumption / new iPhone video recorder > Cisco projects a 66-fold increase in mobile data by 2013 (131% CAGR)
exacloud "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." – Eric Schmidt, circa 1993
“The Network is the Computer.” – Sun Microsystems NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud OTOY and building Fusion Render Cloud Petaflops supercomputer with 1,000 GPUs Renders: up to 8,000 x 8,000 compressed images @ up to 120 frames/second into any Web browser Streams: any interactive video experience . . . at any resolution . . . to any device NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud AMD/Otoy/LightStage Fusion Render Cloud
IBM Roadrunner Los Alamos National Lab
Burbank, California
Los Alamos, New Mexico
1,000 GPUs 5 racks 150 kW ~ $4 million
1/20 1/100 1/15 1/33
1+ petaflops
=
19,500 CPUs 6,000 square feet 2.35 MW $133 million 1.026 petaflops
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud OTOY /
Fusion Render Cloud
Video games
> preview before purchase > rolling release, constant updates > no DVDs, no piracy > play on any device, from home theater to mobile phone
Virtual worlds
> fully interactive 3D immersive experience, evolves over time
Cinema 2.0
> interactive entertainment > video game or motion picture? Or both?
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
40 hours vs. Right Now
photorealistic 3D ... rendered in real-time http://www.pcgameshardware.com/aid,655742/Ruby-20-Screenshots-and-video-of-the-new-Radeon-tech-demo/News/
LightStage
Ultra high-resolution capture and rendering of 3D photo-realistic real-time images for movies, TV, and the Web
Forget virtual reality. Just reality.
Emily
1989 •
the “most powerful computer ever!”
• • •
20 MHz
•
“monitor and mouse not included”
2 MB RAM for “only” $8499.00 ($15,000 in ’09 USD)
U.S. Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 20 exabytes 2018 ~ 3 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds
World Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 60 exabytes 2018 ~ 12 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds
Digital Storage 1992 . . . 1 terabyte ~ $5,000,000 2008 . . . 1 terabyte = $ 109.99 2018 . . . 1 terabyte ~ $ 0.010999 . . . 1 petabyte ~ $ 109.99 2024 . . . all history’s TV and radio on your “laptop”
Flash memory 1992 . . . 8 gigabyte ~ $1,000,000 (iPhone ~ $5 million) 2008 . . . 8 gigabyte = $ 40.00 (now $16.00) 2018 . . . iPhone will store 85 years’ worth of video
2009
• • •
The Hard Drive Dilemma
1992 – 1 TB was around US$5,000,000 July 2008 – 1 TB was an astoundingly cheap US$177.99 January 2009 – 1 TB drive was an amazing US$109.99
Biology 1992 . . . DNA base pair = $10.00 2008 . . . DNA base pair = $ 0.001 2018 . . . DNA base pair ~ $ 0.000001 2024 . . . One genome for $100 (yours if you like) + a full-body MRI scan for free
GDP
China 1992 . . . GDP = $328 billion . . . like Greece or Denmark today 2008 . . . GDP ~ $ 4 trillion . . . will overtake Japan next year for world’s #2 2018 . . . GDP ~ $10 trillion 2024 . . . GDP ~ $16 trillion . . . larger than U.S. today
communications 1992 . . . hardly any Chinese had ever made a phone call 2008 . . . China has twice as many mobile phone subscribers as the U.S. has people trade
1992 . . . U.S.-China trade = $ 33 billion 2008 . . . U.S.-China trade = $400 billion
Web • In 2015, the U.S., Europe, and Asia could
each transmit the equivalent of 2 Libraries of Congress every second for the entire year.
Mobile Health • Phone is most personal device • BAN – Body Area Network • Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence, reminders, family updates
• ECG, apnea, coumadin • Replace many large devices with small
sensors, phone, and cloud – “diagnostics as a service”
U.S. Info-tech Investment 500 450
2008 info-tech investment = $455 billion ~ 22% of capital investment ~ 43% of non-structure capital investment
400
billions of U.S. $
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 90 19
91
19
92
19
93
19
4
9 19
95 19
6
9 19
7
9 19
98 19
Software Communications Equipment
99
19
00
20
20
01
20
02
03
20
04
20
20
05
Computers + Peripherals Communications Structures
20
06
07
20
08
20
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
Thank you. Bandwidth Boom NARUC . Seattle . 22 July 2009
ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com | bretswanson.com
Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era
NARUC . Seattle . 22 July 2009 ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com | bretswanson.com
Bandwidth Boom
Technology and Public Policy in the exaflood Era
–– From Bandwidth Boom to Exaflood The new Internet paradigm Understanding the pace of technology Implications for public policy
Internet’s Three Phases • Phase One – Arpanet in 1969 • Phase Two – Net comes to the masses in 1995 via email and World Wide Web
• Phase Three – Now! Broadband means “the network is the computer” . . . Video ushers in the exaflood
Prefixes 3 10
kilo = 6 mega = 10 9 giga = 10 12 tera = 10 15 peta = 10 18 exa = 10 21 zetta = 10
The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: optical fiber with WDM > new single-fiber record of 32 terabits/second on 320 λ over 580 km Overwhelmed the serial nature of the existing CPU computer paradigm > Von Neumann bottleneck limits memory bandwidth > Too slow for optical packet networks, 3D graphics and HD video > Too darn hot . . . P = C × V2 × F NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
The Paralleladigm Massive parallelism of: > optical fiber with WDM Spawns, complements, accommodates, and requires massive parallelism of: > GPUs with 800 parallel “stream processors” in 10 cores > NPUs with 100s of parallel “task optimized processors” (TOPs) > EPUs with millions of parallel arrayed processors (aka Googleplexes) > 4G wireless with hundreds of parallel sub-frequency bands (aka OFDM) NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
Bandwidth Boom U.S. Consumer Bandwidth 400000
Total U.S. Consumer Bandwidth
350000
800000
← 717 terabits per second
700000
gigabits per second
gigabits per second
300000
250000
200000
600000 500000 400000 300000
residential + wireless
200000
residential
100000
150000
0
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
8
0 20
wireless 100000
50000
0 00
20
01
20
2
0 20
3
0 20
04
20
05
20
20
06
20
07
08
20
Bandwidth Boom U.S. Consumer Bandwidth Per Capita 2500
2.35 megabits per second →
Between 2000 and 2008: •Total residential bandwidth grew 54x. •Total wireless bandwidth grew 542x. •Total consumer bandwidth grew 91x.
kilobits per second
2000
•Residential bandwidth per capita grew 50x. •Wireless bandwidth per capita grew 499x. •Total consumer bandwidth per capita grew 84x, for a compound annual growth rate of 74%.
1500
residential
residential + wireless wireless
1000
500
0 00
20
01
20
2
0 20
3
0 20
04
20
20
05
20
06
07
20
08
20
What is an exabyte? • The Library of Congress holds about 20 million big books
• Each book is about 1 megabyte • The Library of Congress is thus 20 terabytes
• One exabyte is 50,000 Libraries of Congress
exaflood
2007 projection for 2015
Analyzing bandwidth and digital application trends, we projected a 56% compound annual growth rate through 2015 . . . . . .when U.S. IP traffic could reach: Movie downloads and P2P………………..….100 exabytes Video calling and virtual windows…………...400 exabytes “Cloud computing” and remote backup……....50 exabytes Net video, gaming, and virtual worlds……......200 exabytes Non-Internet “IPTV”……………………….100+ exabytes Business IP traffic…………………………….100 exabytes Other (phone, Web, e-mail, photos, music)…....50 exabytes Total…………………………1,000 exabytes = 1 zettabyte
Video conferencing –MSN Messenger Video Calling by mid-2007 generated 4 petabytes per month = to the entire Net in 1997 –Cisco’s new Telepresence requires 15 Mbps symmetrical bandwidth –A one-hour conference call = 13.5 gigabytes –Just 75 of these calls would equal the entire Internet of 1990 –30 exabytes of telephone traffic each year –move to video-phones would mean 400 exabytes – at least – in the U.S., or 10x the size of the existing world Internet
U.S. Internet Traffic
TB/month
1,500,000 1,250,000 1,000,000 750,000 500,000 250,000 199019911992 1993 1994
1995 1996
1997 1998
NARUC Summer Meetings
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com – bretswanson.com
0
Source: MINTS, Entropy Economics
10,000,000
U.S. Internet Traffic (log scale)
1,000,000 100,000 10,000 1,000
TB/month 100 10 1
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
19
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
NARUC Summer Meetings Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics entropyeconomics.com – bretswanson.com
08
20
Source: MINTS, Entropy Economics
update
exaflood
YouTube > receives uploads of 13+ hours of video every minute > receives 18,720+ hours of video each day > streams ~150+ petabytes per month > streams ~3.5 terabytes every minute . . . every 13 min. = 1992 > HD YouTube would mean more than 18 exabytes per year, equal to total U.S. Internet traffic of 2008 > Netflix would ship about 7 exabytes of HD video each year Mobile revolution > 3 billion mobile phones / 1+ billion new devices per year > 1.9 billion camera phones / Nokia largest “camera” company > 1 billion iPhone App downloads in six months . . . 50,000 Apps > “omnichronnectivity” yields constant content creation and consumption / new iPhone video recorder > Cisco projects a 66-fold increase in mobile data by 2013 (131% CAGR)
exacloud "When the network becomes as fast as the processor, the computer hollows out and spreads across the network." – Eric Schmidt, circa 1993
“The Network is the Computer.” – Sun Microsystems NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud OTOY and building Fusion Render Cloud Petaflops supercomputer with 1,000 GPUs Renders: up to 8,000 x 8,000 compressed images @ up to 120 frames/second into any Web browser Streams: any interactive video experience . . . at any resolution . . . to any device NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud AMD/Otoy/LightStage Fusion Render Cloud
IBM Roadrunner Los Alamos National Lab
Burbank, California
Los Alamos, New Mexico
1,000 GPUs 5 racks 150 kW ~ $4 million
1/20 1/100 1/15 1/33
1+ petaflops
=
19,500 CPUs 6,000 square feet 2.35 MW $133 million 1.026 petaflops
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
exacloud OTOY /
Fusion Render Cloud
Video games
> preview before purchase > rolling release, constant updates > no DVDs, no piracy > play on any device, from home theater to mobile phone
Virtual worlds
> fully interactive 3D immersive experience, evolves over time
Cinema 2.0
> interactive entertainment > video game or motion picture? Or both?
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
40 hours vs. Right Now
photorealistic 3D ... rendered in real-time http://www.pcgameshardware.com/aid,655742/Ruby-20-Screenshots-and-video-of-the-new-Radeon-tech-demo/News/
LightStage
Ultra high-resolution capture and rendering of 3D photo-realistic real-time images for movies, TV, and the Web
Forget virtual reality. Just reality.
Emily
1989 •
the “most powerful computer ever!”
• • •
20 MHz
•
“monitor and mouse not included”
2 MB RAM for “only” $8499.00 ($15,000 in ’09 USD)
U.S. Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 20 exabytes 2018 ~ 3 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds
World Internet traffic 1992 = 48 terabytes 2008 = 60 exabytes 2018 ~ 12 zettabytes 2024 ~ pervasive real-time photorealistic 3D holographic virtual worlds
Digital Storage 1992 . . . 1 terabyte ~ $5,000,000 2008 . . . 1 terabyte = $ 109.99 2018 . . . 1 terabyte ~ $ 0.010999 . . . 1 petabyte ~ $ 109.99 2024 . . . all history’s TV and radio on your “laptop”
Flash memory 1992 . . . 8 gigabyte ~ $1,000,000 (iPhone ~ $5 million) 2008 . . . 8 gigabyte = $ 40.00 (now $16.00) 2018 . . . iPhone will store 85 years’ worth of video
2009
• • •
The Hard Drive Dilemma
1992 – 1 TB was around US$5,000,000 July 2008 – 1 TB was an astoundingly cheap US$177.99 January 2009 – 1 TB drive was an amazing US$109.99
Biology 1992 . . . DNA base pair = $10.00 2008 . . . DNA base pair = $ 0.001 2018 . . . DNA base pair ~ $ 0.000001 2024 . . . One genome for $100 (yours if you like) + a full-body MRI scan for free
GDP
China 1992 . . . GDP = $328 billion . . . like Greece or Denmark today 2008 . . . GDP ~ $ 4 trillion . . . will overtake Japan next year for world’s #2 2018 . . . GDP ~ $10 trillion 2024 . . . GDP ~ $16 trillion . . . larger than U.S. today
communications 1992 . . . hardly any Chinese had ever made a phone call 2008 . . . China has twice as many mobile phone subscribers as the U.S. has people trade
1992 . . . U.S.-China trade = $ 33 billion 2008 . . . U.S.-China trade = $400 billion
Web • In 2015, the U.S., Europe, and Asia could
each transmit the equivalent of 2 Libraries of Congress every second for the entire year.
Mobile Health • Phone is most personal device • BAN – Body Area Network • Remote diagnostics, monitoring, presence, reminders, family updates
• ECG, apnea, coumadin • Replace many large devices with small
sensors, phone, and cloud – “diagnostics as a service”
U.S. Info-tech Investment 500 450
2008 info-tech investment = $455 billion ~ 22% of capital investment ~ 43% of non-structure capital investment
400
billions of U.S. $
350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 90 19
91
19
92
19
93
19
4
9 19
95 19
6
9 19
7
9 19
98 19
Software Communications Equipment
99
19
00
20
20
01
20
02
03
20
04
20
20
05
Computers + Peripherals Communications Structures
20
06
07
20
08
20
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
NARUC Summer Meetings ... Seattle, Washington – July 22, 2009 ... Bret Swanson – Entropy Economics
Thank you. Bandwidth Boom NARUC . Seattle . 22 July 2009
ENTROPY ECONOMICS GLOBAL INNOVATION + TECHNOLOGY RESEARCH
Bret Swanson entropyeconomics.com | bretswanson.com
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