Austin Proposition 2 Result Analysis

To: From: Re: Date:

Interested Parties Mark Littlefield Prop 2 Election Result Analysis November 6, 2008

Who Voted?  198 precincts cast ballots in the City of Austin (COA) Prop 2 election – including the 17 precincts inside the COA that are in Williamson County.  81 precincts voted yes on Prop 2 by 50.1% or greater  114 precincts voted no on Prop 2 by 50.1% or greater  3 precincts were tied at 50% - 50% Where Did Vote No (Keep Austin’s Word) Win?  17 precincts voted no by a margin of 60% or greater. o 13 of the 17 precincts were west of MOPAC between Enfield and Loop 360. Basically, Old West Austin and NW Hills.  31 additional precincts voted no by a margin of 55% to 60% o Most of these precincts were west of MOPAC stretching from Circle C to Canyon Creek o 8 of these precincts were in Central Austin, including all of the UT student precincts Where Did Vote Yes (Stop Domain Subsidies) Win?  7 precincts voted yes voted by a margin of 60% or greater, but they were all incredibly small. The largest precinct in this group cast 38 total votes.  19 total precincts voted yes by a margin of 55% or greater o Most of these precincts were in South Central Austin – south of Lady Bird Lake and east of Lamar Blvd. What Happened With The Rest Of The City?  74 precincts fell right in the middle. They voted between 53% to 47% in favor or 47% to 53% opposed to Prop 2. How Did Vote No (Keep Austin’s Word) Win?  Vote yes (Stop Domain Subsidies) came out of their best 19 precincts with a 2,102 raw vote lead  Vote no (Keep Austin’s Word) came out of their best 19 precincts with a 5,739 vote lead  Vote no also had more “good precincts” than vote yes Other Observations  We will not know until the final canvas report is released and we can see who actually voted, but the Early Vote electorate and EDAY electorate where completely different animals.

st

3115 S. 1 St. * Suite 104 * Austin, TX 78704 * (512) 633-0791 * [email protected]

    

Democrats did much worse on EDAY, but Prop 2 did not change. There is a theory to explain why the Prop 2 results did not change, but I don’t what it is yet. 75% of all ballots cast in this election were cast during Early Vote and 25% were cast on Election Day. Democrats represented an overwhelming majority of Early Vote, and even though we don’t have data on Election Day voters – it is evident by the Election Day results in the partisan races that Republicans did much better on Election Day. The difficult concept to grasp is that these two different electorates – Early Vote and Election Day - voted almost exactly the same on Prop 2 – 52% to 48% during Early Vote and 53% to 47% on Election Day. The last fascinating fact to be revealed after the canvass report is released is the number of under votes – an under vote is a ballot that was cast, but the voter skipped Prop 2. I believe that will see a higher percentage of under votes in vote yes’s best boxes and a lower percentage in vote no’s best boxes, but that is just a theory.

st

3115 S. 1 St. * Suite 104 * Austin, TX 78704 * (512) 633-0791 * [email protected]