Altos Research | Realiq: December 2009: Real-time Housing Market Update

ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Real-Time Housing Market Update Published by Altos Research & Real IQ December 8, 2009

Highlights

The Altos 10-City Composite presents the most current perspective on housing market conditions across the country. The Composite median price fell by 0.4% in November 2009.

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The Altos Research 10-City Composite Price was down by 0.4% in November and 0.8% during the most recent three-month period. The Composite effectively bottomed out in January at $470,017 and climbed throughout the first half of the year to $509,030 in July before returning to a gradual downward trend. Prices are likely to continue showing modest declines throughout the seasonally weak fall and winter months of 2009. Asking prices increased in just one of 26 markets - Miami. The previously strong California markets all showed price declines during November. The largest monthly drop in asking prices occurred in San Diego with prices falling 3.1%, followed closely by Salt Lake City which showed a 2.9% decline. Salt Lake City experienced the steepest quarterly drop in asking prices – down 6.1%. Listed property inventory declined in 22 of 26 markets tracked. The inventory declines were largest in Boston and the Bay Area markets of San Francisco and San Jose. All markets except San Francisco and San Jose had a median days-on-market of 100 or more in November. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was Miami with a median of 225 days-on-market or more than seven months.

November Home Price Trends The 10-City Composite Index was down 0.4% during November and 0.8% for the most recent three-month period. The Index started the year in January at $470,017 and reached a yearly high of $509,030 in July before falling to $499,267 in November. The downturn would likely have been worse were it not for historically low mortgage rates and the federal government’s home buyer tax credit which was recently extended beyond its November expiration date. Listing prices fell in 25 of 26 markets during November with Miami being the only exception. The largest monthly declines occurred in San Diego and Salt Lake City with asking prices down 3.1% and 2.9% respectively. Prices fell by more than one percent during the month in 10 other markets. The rate of decline has slowed in Las Vegas but that market continues to show the largest decline during the downturn. In November, 2007, the median asking price was $347,597 but it fell to just $168,162 in November, 2009. Asking prices increased in just one of 26 markets - Miami - with an increase of 1.0% for November and 1.3% during the most recent three-month period.

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Altos Research Price Composite September 2009

MSA

10 City Composite

$

503,401

October 2009

November 2009

% Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

$ 501,377

$

499,267

-0.4%

-0.8%

San Diego

$

872,654

$ 864,465

$

837,981

-3.1%

-4.0%

Salt Lake City

$

396,139

$ 382,970

$

371,930

-2.9%

-6.1%

Charlotte

$

263,205

$ 259,884

$

254,956

-1.9%

-3.1%

Denver

$

401,214

$ 396,686

$

389,681

-1.8%

-2.9%

Portland

$

341,382

$ 336,025

$

330,504

-1.6%

-3.2%

Atlanta

$

235,250

$ 232,721

$

229,262

-1.5%

-2.5%

Phoenix

$

317,796

$ 311,050

$

307,114

-1.3%

-3.4%

Austin

$

306,473

$ 303,015

$

299,233

-1.2%

-2.4%

Cleveland

$

176,061

$ 174,298

$

172,301

-1.1%

-2.1%

Houston

$

241,075

$ 237,333

$

234,723

-1.1%

-2.6%

Las Vegas

$

172,068

$ 169,958

$

168,162

-1.1%

-2.3%

Minneapolis

$

301,595

$ 300,629

$

297,707

-1.0%

-1.3%

Seattle

$

414,177

$ 410,989

$

407,592

-0.8%

-1.6%

Tampa

$

227,176

$ 223,872

$

222,149

-0.8%

-2.2%

San Jose

$

811,798

$ 819,535

$

813,365

-0.8%

0.2%

Los Angeles

$

734,941

$ 719,884

$

714,473

-0.8%

-2.8%

Chicago

$

326,339

$ 322,994

$

320,571

-0.8%

-1.8%

Detroit

$

159,339

$ 157,229

$

156,066

-0.7%

-2.1%

Indianapolis

$

174,052

$ 172,317

$

171,195

-0.7%

-1.6%

Washington, DC

$

457,239

$ 452,910

$

450,281

-0.6%

-1.5%

Dallas

$

248,803

$ 246,135

$

245,045

-0.4%

-1.5%

New York

$

654,959

$ 653,117

$

650,536

-0.4%

-0.7%

Boston

$

495,628

$ 492,942

$

491,091

-0.4%

-0.9%

San Francisco

$

815,291

$ 823,931

$

820,903

-0.4%

0.7%

Philadelphia

$

351,185

$ 350,202

$

349,549

-0.2%

-0.5%

Miami

$

484,045

$ 485,472

$

490,197

1.0%

1.3%

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

November Housing Supply Trends During November, the inventory of properties listed for sale declined by 2.9% across the 10City Composite Index markets. Inventory declined in 22 of 26 markets. Inventory fell by the largest amount in Boston down 10.0% and San Francisco where it contracted by 9.7%. Decreasing inventory is typical during the seasonally slow fall and winter months. The limited but widespread decline in listed-property inventory should help moderate near-term price declines. Inventory increased by the largest amount in San Diego – up 3.9% - followed by Phoenix and New York – up 2.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Listing Inventory % Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

MSA

September 2009

October 2009

November 2009

10 City Composite

262,150

253,186

245,893

-2.9%

-6.2%

Boston

16,233

15,652

14,086

-10.0%

-13.2%

San Francisco

7,979

7,535

6,806

-9.7%

-14.7%

San Jose

4,030

3,732

3,473

-6.9%

-13.8%

Minneapolis

17,178

16,304

15,203

-6.8%

-11.5%

Chicago

59,521

56,835

53,319

-6.2%

-10.4%

Denver

13,668

13,043

12,250

-6.1%

-10.4%

Austin

11,025

10,491

9,858

-6.0%

-10.6%

Detroit

32,208

29,407

27,754

-5.6%

-13.8%

Seattle

23,359

22,415

21,196

-5.4%

-9.3%

Washington, DC

20,256

19,615

18,674

-4.8%

-7.8%

Indianapolis

13,808

13,295

12,699

-4.5%

-8.0%

Dallas

32,229

30,852

29,566

-4.2%

-8.3%

Cleveland

13,736

13,209

12,671

-4.1%

-7.8%

Philadelphia

25,497

24,475

23,569

-3.7%

-7.6%

Portland

13,639

13,149

12,670

-3.6%

-7.1%

Salt Lake City

7,434

7,167

6,928

-3.3%

-6.8%

Houston

31,848

30,586

29,836

-2.5%

-6.3%

Charlotte

15,315

14,956

14,596

-2.4%

-4.7%

Atlanta

38,750

37,292

36,420

-2.3%

-6.0%

Los Angeles

31,001

30,107

29,448

-2.2%

-5.0%

Miami

30,497

29,292

28,906

-1.3%

-5.2%

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Las Vegas

20,488

20,437

20,331

-0.5%

-0.8%

Tampa

19,124

18,909

19,143

1.2%

0.1%

New York

54,838

52,822

53,950

2.1%

-1.6%

Phoenix

26,574

26,616

27,395

2.9%

3.1%

San Diego

6,885

7,088

7,365

3.9%

7.0%

November Housing Market Demand Trends During November every market except San Francisco and San Jose had a median days-onmarket of 100 or more. By far, the market with the slowest rate of inventory turnover was again Miami, now at a median of 225 days-on-market or more than 7 months. That reflects a substantial decline from 251 days-on-market in September and 244 in October. San Francisco experienced the fastest rate of inventory turnover at a median of 89 days-onmarket.

Average Days on Market

MSA

September 2009

October 2009

November 2009

% Change Last Month

% Change Over 3 Months

10 City Composite

156

156

154

-1.1%

-1.4%

Miami

251

244

225

-7.8%

-10.3%

Chicago

177

180

187

3.7%

5.7%

Atlanta

181

177

174

-1.7%

-3.9%

Charlotte

179

176

178

1.1%

-0.4%

Detroit

172

171

174

2.0%

1.4%

Tampa

162

163

156

-4.4%

-3.5%

New York

152

155

144

-7.4%

-5.2%

Cleveland

153

155

158

2.3%

3.5%

Philadelphia

141

148

153

2.9%

8.3%

Washington, DC

149

147

153

4.1%

2.6%

Indianapolis

133

134

138

2.7%

4.0%

Denver

132

134

139

3.9%

5.1%

Phoenix

135

133

128

-3.8%

-5.2%

Seattle

129

132

138

4.4%

6.5%

Minneapolis

129

130

135

3.8%

4.8%

Portland

121

127

129

1.5%

6.3%

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

Los Angeles

125

120

121

0.4%

-2.9%

Houston

118

120

122

1.5%

3.4%

Dallas

113

117

120

2.3%

6.1%

Austin

112

117

120

3.2%

7.6%

Las Vegas

117

114

115

0.6%

-1.8%

Boston

110

112

116

3.9%

5.3%

Salt Lake City

118

107

112

4.8%

-5.1%

San Diego

108

104

109

5.4%

1.5%

San Jose

111

103

99

-4.0%

-11.3%

San Francisco

88

85

89

5.2%

1.4%

Methodology The Altos Research—Real IQ Real-Time Housing Report provides data on current housing market conditions in major markets around the country. Unlike other data sources that lag several months behind the market, this report summarizes metrics associated with active residential property listings to present the only real-time view of the housing market. Each ―market‖ measured in this report is equivalent to the Census Bureau's Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) dominated by the city listed. Properties analyzed in this data included repeat sales of single-family homes. Condominiums and town homes are not included in the data set. New construction is not included in the data set. The Altos Research Price Index is a statistical compilation of property prices highly correlated with the S&P/Case Shiller® Index. The Altos 10-City Composite is based on single family homes in Boston, Chicago, New York, Los Angeles, San Diego, San Francisco, Miami, Las Vegas , Washington D.C, Denver. For more information visit AltosResearch.com.

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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ALTOS RESEARCH | REALIQ: December 2009: REAL-TIME HOUSING MARKET UPDATE

About Real IQ Real IQ provides housing market analysis and consulting services to leading mortgage and real estate companies including: Bank of America, Realogy, Weichert, Long & Foster, LendingTree and others. More information about Real IQ is located at www.realiq.com.

About Altos Research Altos Research LLC pioneered real-time real estate market research. Founded in 2005, the company's information products serve investors, derivatives traders, and thousands of real estate professionals. The company publishes analytical reports and data feeds each week for thousands of zip codes including all 20 S&P/Case Shiller markets summarized in this report. The Altos Research—Real IQ Housing Market Update is jointly produced by Real IQ™ and Altos Research. If you have any questions regarding this report, please contact Stephen Bedikian or Michael Simonsen. Michael Simonsen CEO & Co-Founder Altos Research LLC Tel: 888-819-7775 Web: www.altosresearch.com Email: [email protected]

© 2009 Altos Research LLC and Real IQ

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