90. Multi-poler World

""% " Emporium Current Essays 407 MULTI-POLAR WORL1 April 23, 1997, marked the'historic birth of a muhipolar world. The scene was the Kremlin in Moscow. The grand operation was performed by the Chinese President Jiang Zemin and his Russian counterpart Boris Yeltsin. The birth certificate was made pubic and records as under: 'T/te Joint Statement is a weighty declaration by the two world powers in favour of creating a multipolar world, based on equal co-operation. Both sides stand for the establishment of a new and universally applicably security concept, believing that Cold War mentality must be abandoned and bloc politics opposed" This is no veiled attack on the vision of this planet by monopolising the affairs of the whole world. Russia and China have finally decided to challenge the US perception of its New World Order. The challenge, which should be regarded as the first drop of rain, was not unexpected. What is surprising is that it has come much sooner than expected -- with seven years of the collapse of the former Soviet Union. The motivating propelling force behind this warm embrace in the Kremlin between the two century old enemies has been the final dawn of the basic age-old truth: "United you stand, divided you fall." After the elimination af the Soviet Union, it was now China's turn. Even a child in the nursery class of an elementary political school w as* aw are of this writing on the w all. So instead of being allowed to be written off one by one, China and Russia have joined hands in a joint bid for survival. The birth of the multi-polar world witnessed in the Kremlin on April 23, 1997, was conceived at Beijing in April 1996, when Yeltsin, in spite of his poor health, made the historic visit to China. This honeymoon between estranged partners of a sinking ideology wounds and forged new ties of future understanding and cooperation. The joint declaration at Beijing, a year ago, had stated: "China and Russia hereby announce their resolve to develop a strategic partnership of equality, mutual confidence and mutual coordination towards the 21st century." No only this. During the Beijing visit last year, Yeltsin also signed a border security accord with China which interestingly included the three Central Asian Presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrghyzia and Tajikistan. This accord is unique in the history of408 Emporium Current Essays

Asia in the sense that it commits the five signatory states to build peace and military confidence in the region along 8000 kilometres of mutual borders, with a history full of armed clashes in the past. To avoid any tension and remove any irritants, this accord ensured demilitarisation of 100 kilometres of the frontier strip on each side of the border line. Seen in the strategic context, it was a leap forward in bridging the differences between the two giants. It struck at the grand design of ihe West to deal with the two separately, by maintaining and even enlarging the gulf between the. The ailing Yeltsin struck another blow at US designs in the region. He stopped over at Almaty and signed a protocol to build an oil pipeline from Kazakhstan's Tengiz oil field to Russia's Black Sea port of Novorossyisk. The US plans in respect of this oil field rn be drained to the Caspian were-thus frustrated. It was a signal that Russia was on the march again. During this period, while China was building bridges with India and other states in the region and beyond, Russia was doing likewise, strengthening ties both with India and Iran and others. Thus the last year has witnessed the emergence of a new gcostrategic nexus between Moscow, Beijing, Delhi and Tehran. This nexus will be naturally and understandably joined by these in the twenty first century, who oppose the US concept of the New World Order. The joint declaration at Moscow on April 23 has laid the first formal brick of the proposed edifice of a multi-polar world as opposed to the sole superpower vision as envisaged in the concept of globalisation in the 21st century. Whereas the broad framework of the new geo-strategic alignments is becoming clearer, witfi the lifting of. the veil at the Kremlin on Wednesday, the million dollar question is: "Where does Pakistan stand in the midst of the emerging scenario of new strategic partnership?" During the former Indian Prime Minister's Deve Gowda's visit to the Moscow recently, Russia announced its strategic partnership with India. The same partnership, of course, with implications of a far greater magnitude, has corne about with China. Moscow had announced a similar nexus with Tehran last year. By a simple calculation, one has only to put two and two together. Two of our best friends, namely China and Iran, have entered into a declared strategic partnership with Russia, who has dared to publicly challenge the US leadership of the world: Pakistan's major and only foe, namely India, who, even after so many years of Pakistan's birth, has still not reconciled itself vith the two nation theory, which was the basis ol the creation of Pakistan, has also joined the new nexus. Emporium Current Essays 409 With due respect to the intellectual level of the readership of this column, there is hardly any need to carry out any geopolitical analysis of international developments sine the collapse of the Soviet Union and the consequent emergence of the concept of the New World Order. The Camp David Accord, the Gulf War, the Bosnia War and the Dayton Accord, the latest developments in Iran and Afghanistan as well as the political and economic vacuum in the Central Asian Republic are various pieces that fit in the grand global design, as visualised by Washington for the next century. South Asia, of which

Pakistan and India are a vital part, is therefore, an inescapable part of this design. Hence, the recent superlative interest in resolving problems and challenges facing Afghanistan, Pakistan and India. Why? To pave the way and clear • the decks for the achievement of their goe-strategic goals in the region, which includes neutralising Pakistan's nuclear capability on the top of their agenda. Otherwise, why this sudden interest in Kashmir now? This issue never crossed their mind for the past SO years. Even the most naive can guess the answer. Knowing her strategic and economic significance, India is flirting with both cams to exact its pound of flesh from each side, while isolating Pakistan in the process. To proceed with this "Chanakiyan" game plan, India has entered into a strategic partnership with Washington also. USA is pleased with this honeymoon, in spite of India having vetoed the CTBT draft Treaty on August 20,1996, thus torpedoing the Clinton dream. India has obviously put a price tag for joining two opposing camps in a strategic partnership which defies all principles of honour and fair play. While a subtle strategic web of isolation is being spun around Pakistan, the least Mian Nawaz Sharif can do is not to be lured in May, when he meets his Indian counterpart, into fantasies of romantic optimism. Pakistan's vision of its own national security and geo-strategic goals must never get blurred by a dose of promises or pressures from any quarter. The freezing of the Kashmir issue and a compromise on our concept of nuclear deterrence, however sugarcoated in the guise of economic prosperity an becoming an Asian Tiger, will, in reality, be paving the way for a South Asian Camp David. If events ever take such a turn, the issue might well demand a referendum to ascertain the will of the nation.