Annual Meeting g April 15, 2009
Note: All financial disclosure in this presentation is, unless otherwise noted, in US$ and, except per share data, in $ millions
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Forward-Looking Forward Looking Statements Certain statements contained herein may constitute forward-looking statements and are made pursuant to the “safe harbor” provisions of the United States Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. Such forward forward-looking looking statements are subject to known and unknown risks, uncertainties and other factors which may cause the actual results, performance or achievements of Fairfax to be materially different from any future results, performance or achievements expressed or implied by such forward-looking statements. Such factors include, but are not limited to: a reduction in net income if our loss reserves are insufficient; underwriting losses on the risks our subsidiaries insure that are higher or lower than expected; the occurrence of catastrophic events with a frequency or severity exceeding our estimates; the cycles of the insurance market, market which can substantially influence our and our competitors’ premium rates and capacity to write new business; changes in economic conditions, including interest rates and the securities markets, which could negatively affect our investment portfolio; insufficient reserves for asbestos, environmental and other latent claims; the inability of our subsidiaries to maintain favourable financial or claims-paying ability ratings; an inability to realize our investment objectives; exposure to credit risk in the event e ent our o r subsidiaries’ s bsidiaries’ reinsurers reins rers or insureds ins reds fail to make payments; pa ments a decrease in the level of demand for our subsidiaries’ products, or increased competition; an inability to obtain reinsurance coverage at reasonable prices or on terms that adequately protect our subsidiaries; an inability to obtain required levels of capital; an inability to access cash of our subsidiaries; risks associated with requests for information from government authorities; risks government investigations g of, and class action litigation g related to, associated with current g insurance industry practice; the passage of new legislation; and the failure to realize future income tax assets. Additional risks and uncertainties are described on pages 150 – 153 in our 2008 Annual Report which is available at www.fairfax.ca. For a fuller detailing of issues and risks relating to the company, please see Risk Factors in Fairfax’s most recent Supplemental and Base Shelf Prospectus filed with the securities regulatory authorities in Canada and the United States, which is available on SEDAR and EDGAR. Fairfax disclaims any intention or obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements.
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Guiding Principles Objectives We expect to compound our book value per share over the long term by 15% annually by running Fairfax and its subsidiaries for the long term benefit of customers, employees and shareholders – at the expense of short term profits if necessary Our focus O f is i long l term t growth th in i book b k value l per share h and d not quarterly earnings. We plan to grow through internal means as well as through friendly acquisitions We always want to be soundly financed We provide complete disclosure annually to our shareholders h h ld 3
Guiding Principles Structure Our companies are decentralized and run by the presidents except for performance evaluation, succession planning, acquisitions and financing, which are done by or with Fairfax. Cooperation among companies is encouraged to the benefit of Fairfax in total C Complete l t and d open communication i ti b between t F Fairfax i f and d it its subsidiaries is an essential requirement at Fairfax p and large g incentives are encouraged g Share ownership across the Group Fairfax head office will always be a very small holding company and d nott an operating ti company 4
Guiding Principles Values Honesty and integrity are essential in all of our relationships and will never be compromised p We are results-oriented — not political We are team players — no "egos”. A confrontational style is not appropriate. We value loyalty — to Fairfax and our colleagues We are hard working but not at the expense of our families We always look at opportunities but emphasize downside protection t ti and d llook k ffor ways tto minimize i i i lloss off capital it l We are entrepreneurial. We encourage calculated risk-taking. It is all right to fail but we should learn from our mistakes We will never bet the company on any project or acquisition We believe in having fun — at work!
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Financial Results
Book Value per Share Growth in Book Value per Share
2006
2007
2008
$ 150.16 150 16
$ 230.01 230 01
$ 278.28 278 28
53%
21%
Investments per Share
$ 1,076
$ 1,141
Earnings per Share (diluted)
$ 58.38
$ 79.53
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(65%) (100%)
(1%) (3%) (3%) (3%) (4%) (5%) (5%) (6%) (7%) (7%) (8%) (8%) (9%) (9%) (1 12%) (13 3%) (14 4%) (14 4%) (14 4%) (15% %) (16% %) (17% %) (18% %) (18%) (19%) (19%) (19%) (22%) (24%) (31%) (32%) (3 37%) (3 37%) (43%)) (48%)
11% 10% 8% 7% 6% 5% 5% 3% 3% 3% 3% 2 2%
23% %
2008 Change in Book Value per Share
SOURCE: Dowling & Partners, IBNR #12 Fairfax and AIG calculated using the same methodology as Dowling & Partners, based on company data (AIG excludes government financing) 7
U.S. P&C Insurance Companies 5-Year 5 Year BVPS and Share Price 5-Year Compound Annual Growth Rate 2003-2008 BVPS 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 (1)
Fairfax (1) Chubb T Travelers l Markel Corp. PartnerRe Loews ACE Ltd. Berkshire Hathaway RenaissanceRe White Mountains Leucadia National IPC Re Hartford XL Capital p AIG
11.2% 11.0% 9 9% 9.9% 9.6% 8.7% 8.2% 8.0% 6.9% 5.5% 3.9% 2.2% 0.4% (5.6%) ((19.8%)) (49.5%)
Share Price 11.5% 8.4% 2 7% 2.7% 3.4% 4.2% 11.4% 5.0% 2.8% 1.0% (10.3%) 5.2% (5.1%) (22.6%) ((45.6%)) (52.7%)
BVPS in U.S. dollars. Share price in Canadian dollars
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Fairfax Long Term Performance Compound Annual Growth Rate to 2008
Book Value Per Share g Ranking Growth Rate
5 Years 1 11.2%
10 Years 4 9.5%
15 Years 1 17.0%
23 Years 1 25.4%
Share Price 5 Years
10 Years
15 Years
23 Years
Ranking Growth Rate
1 11 5% 11.5%
12 (3 2%) (3.2%)
2 13 1% 13.1%
1 23 1% 23.1%
Number of Companies
15
15
12
8
For Fairfax: BVPS in U.S. dollars. Share price in Canadian dollars 9
2008 Subsidiary Financial Results
Combined Ratio
Net Earnings
Return on Avg. Equity
N thb id Northbridge
107 3% 107.3%
46
3 6% 3.6%
Crum & Forster (US GAAP)
114.6%
333
27.1%
OdysseyRe (US GAAP)
101.2%
549
20.5%
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2008 Underwriting Results Crum & Northbridge Forster As Reported Underwriting Loss Combined Ratio Adjustments Foreign Currency Impact Crum & Forster Reinsurance Commutation and Lawsuit Settlement
OdysseyRe
Consolidated
(78.7)
(177.2)
(73.5)
(457.7)
107 3% 107.3%
117 6% 117.6%
103 5% 103.5%
110 1% 110.1%
52.8
-
45.8
99.1
-
109.7
-
109.7
74.3
136.9
242.5
Advent Underwriting Loss
25.0 -
-
-
112 4 112.4
Adjusted Underwriting Profit (Loss)
(0.9)
6.8
109.2
106.0
100.1%
99.3%
94.7%
97.6%
Hurricanes Ike and Gustav Losses
Adjusted Combined Ratio
11
Importance of Float – Operating Companies Unlike money management business (royalty on funds managed), g ), results (g (gains)) accrue to owners Manage money with a long term perspective Underwriting profit (loss) = benefit (cost) of float Float belongs to policy holders but income accrues to shareholders (with 100% or better combined ratios) Underwriting Profit / (Loss)
Average Float
Benefit / (Cost) of Float
Avg. Long Term Canada Treasury Bond Yield
1986
2.5
21.6
11.6%
9.6%
1996
(37)
1,089
(3.4%)
7.6%
2007 2008
281 (458)
8,618 , 8,918
3.3% (5.1%)
4.3% 4.1%
Weighted Avg. Financing Differential Since Inception
2.3% 12
Importance of Float – Operating Companies Unlike money management business (royalty on funds managed) results (gains) accrue to owners managed), Manage money with a long term perspective Underwriting profit (loss) = benefit (cost) of float Float belongs to policy holders but income accrues to shareholders (with 100% or better combined ratios) Underwriting Profit / (Loss)
Average Float
Benefit / (Cost) of Float
Avg. g Long g Term Canada Treasury Bond Yield
Investment Gains
1986
2.5
21.6
11.6%
9.6%
1
1996
(37)
1,089
(3.4%)
7.6%
91
2007
281
8,618
3.3%
4.3%
2008
(458)
8,918
(5.1%)
4.1%
Weighted Avg. Financing Differential Since Inception
2.3%
976 1,559 $5.3B (cumulative) 13
Investment Performance Hamblin Watsa Investment Performance 5 Years to Dec. 31 '08
10 Years to Dec. 31 '08
15 Years to Dec. 31 '08
Common Stocks with Equity Hedge Common Stocks S&P 500
12.2% 1.5% (2 2%) (2.2%)
19.1% 13.3% (1 4%) (1.4%)
16.1% 12.3% 6 5% 6.5%
Bonds Merrill Lynch U.S. Corporate Index
9.6% 1.6%
9.3% 4.4%
9.4% 5.4%
Source: Notes:
Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel - Annualized Rate of Return (%). Bonds do not include returns from credit default swaps. 15 year investment performance includes portfolios managed by Hamblin Watsa which were not owned by Fairfax. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.
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Other-Than-Temporary Impairment and Mark-to-Market Mark to Market Losses in 2008
Northbridge
Crum & Forster
OdysseyRe
Consolidated
OTTI
274
197
359
996
MTM
103
87
141
504
Total
377
284
500
1,500
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Subsidiary Growth in Book Value Per Share 2001-2008 Compound Annual Growth Rate Northbridge
19.2%
Crum & Forster (US GAAP)
18.9%
OdysseyRe (US GAAP)
21.2%
Three excellent companies: ¾ Underwriting culture ¾ Conservative reserving ¾ Total return investing 16
Fairfax - Yesterday and Today 1985
2008
Net Premiums Written
12.2
4,332
Net Earnings
(0.6)
1,474
Investment Portfolio
23.9
18,395
7.6
4,866
Common Shareholders' Equity Per Share
Growth
Book Value
$ 1.52
$ 278.28
183x
Share Price (C$)
$ 3.25
$ 390.00
120x
Investments
$ 4.80
$ 1,140.85
238x
Net Premiums Written
$ 2.44
$ 247.74
102x 17
International Diversification India – ICICI Lombard General Insurance For the Years Ended March 31 In USD millions 2002
2008
Gross Premiums Written
6
894
Combined Ratio
-
105 7% 105.7%
Net Income
(2)
26
Investment Portfolio
23
626
Total Shareholders' Equity
21
264
Customers (millions)
0.0
3.5
Employees
116
5,570
11
340
Offices
2002-2008 2002 2008 Average
105 8% 105.8%
Cumulative Investment: $88MM ($30MM after March 2008) Ownership Interest: 26% 18
International Diversification Singapore – First Capital Insurance For the Years Ended December 31 In USD millions 2002
2008
Gross Premiums Written Combined Ratio Net Income
195 65.9% 27
Investment Portfolio Total Shareholders' Equity
10 101.8% (0) 33 32
2002-2008 Average 71.2%
255 130
Initial Investment: $32MM in 2001, no additional investment Ownership Interest: 100% 19
International Diversification Hong Kong – Falcon Insurance For the Years Ended December 31 In USD millions 2002 Gross Premiums Written Combined Ratio Net Income Investment Portfolio Total Shareholders' Equity
57 98.5% 2 59 20
2008 28 158.9% (14)
2002-2008 Average 110.2%
88 39
Cumulative Investment: $40MM Ownership Interest: 100% 20
International Diversification Jordan – Arab Orient Insurance For the Years Ended December 31 In USD millions 2002
2008
Gross Premiums Written Combined Ratio Net Income
45 79.3% 3
Investment Portfolio Total Shareholders' Equity
9 79.7% 1 6 4
2002-2008 Average 85.6%
25 20
Initial Investment: $11MM in 2008 Ownership Interest: 22% 21
International Diversification Dubai – Alliance Insurance For the Years Ended December 31 In USD millions 2002
2008
Gross Premiums Written Combined Ratio Net Income
32 68.4% 12
Investment Portfolio Total Shareholders' Equity
17 74.7% 5 62 18
2002-2008 Average 68.9%
74 65
Initial Investment: $22MM in 2008 Ownership Interest: 20% 22
International Diversification Poland – Polish Re For the Years Ended December 31 In USD millions 2002 Gross Premiums Written Combined Ratio Net Income Investment Portfolio Total Shareholders' Equity
37 96.0% 1 52 27
2008 95 106.1% (11)
2002-2008 Average 100.0%
103 39
Initial Investment: $57MM in 2009 Ownership Interest: 100% 23
Financial Strength Holdco Cash and Marketable Securities
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
$410
$567
$559
$767
$972
$1,564
Year End 2003
Year End 2005
Year End 2008
Subsidiary Debt Holdco Obligations Total Debt Holdco Cash and Marketable Securities Net Debt
784 1,587 2,371 410 1,961
933 1,610 2,543 559 1,984
910 1,058 1,968 1,555 , 413
Total Equity & Minority Interests
2,896
3,396
6,352
Net Debt / Net Total Capital
40.4%
36.9%
6.1%
Total Debt / Total Capital
45.0%
42.8%
23.7% 24
The Perfect Storm in the U.S. Economy Subsiding 1) Risk repriced 2) Deleveraging taking place 3) U.S. economy and U.S. stock markets have declined significantly ¾ Pessimism rampant 25
U.S. Stock Valuations Back To Normal Stock Market Capitalization as a Percentage of Nominal GDP Monthly - 1924 to Present 180% 160% 140% 120% 100% 80% 60%
Average = 60.6%
40% 20% 0%
Source: Ned Davis Research Inc. 26
Can the Japanese Experience Be Repeated in the U.S.? Nikkei 225 Index vs. Japanese 10-Year Gov't Bond Yields Monthly - 1986 to Present 40,000
9% 8%
35,000
7% 6% 5%
25,000
4%
20,000
3%
15,000
Nikkei 22 25 Index
10-Year Bo ond Yield
30,000
2% 10,000
1% 0% 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 Bond Yields
5,000
Nikkei 225
27
Stock Market Crash of 1929 Dow Jones Industrial Average vs. Long Term U.S. Treasury Yields 1925 to 1939 5%
400
4%
300 250
3%
200 00 150
2%
100
Dow Jones Ind D dustrial Averag ge
Long Term U.S L S. Treasury Yie eld
350
50 1% 1925
0 1927
1929
1931
1933
1935
Long Term U.S. Treasury Yield
1937
1939
DJIA
Source: Bloomberg and Hoisington Investment Management 28
Long Term U.S. Treasury Rate 1872 2008 1872-2008 14% Fall of Berlin Wall
12% Onset of Iron and Bamboo Curtains
10% 8% 6% 4%
Average = 4.24%
2% Global market
0% 1872
1889
1906
1923
Global market
Restricted market
1940
1957
1974
1991
2008
Source: Hoisington Investment Management 29
High Yield Spreads 1-10 Year High Yield Spreads 2,000
Spre ead (bps) overr U.S. Treasurries
1,800 1,600 , 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Merrill Lynch 30
Investment Grade Spreads 1-10 Year Investment Grade Spreads 800
Spre ead (bps) overr U.S. Treasuriies
700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source: Merrill Lynch 31
Fairfax’s Fairfax s CDS Portfolio 3,000
20.0 18.0
2,500
16.0 14.0
2,000
12.0 1,500
10.0 8.0
1,000
6.0 4.0
500
2.0 0
00 0.0 31-Dec-04
31-Dec-05
Notional Amount of CDS Portfolio
31-Dec-06 Market Value
31-Dec-07
31-Dec-08
Realized Proceeds
Cost
Notional A Amount of CD DS Portfolio ($ $ billions)
Cumulative Cos C st, Cumulative G Gains on Sale and a Cumulative e Market Valu ue Including Sa ales Proceeds ($ millions)
Results of Fairfax's CDS Portfolio Since Inception
U.S. Real Housing Price Index 1890 2008 1890-2008 220 200 32% decrease
180 160 140
1894 123.9
1979 122.1
120 100
1989 124.2
Average = 101.2
80 60 1890 1899 1908 1917 1926 1935 1944 1953 1962 1971 1980 1989 1998 2007 Source: Hoisington Investment Management and Robert Shiller, Yale University 33
Fairfax Investment Portfolio Positioned For Income & Capital Gains 2007 21%
2008 32%
50%
16%
1%
20%
Corporate Bonds Total Fixed Income Yield
4% 55% 4.2%
7% 43% 6.9%
Common Stocks
17%
Cash and Short Term Government Bonds Municipal Bonds
Other Investments Total Total Investment Portfolio (1) Pre-tax equivalent yield (2) Approximately 85% hedged (3) Includes holding company cash and marketable securities
(3)
(2)
(1)
22%
7% 100%
3% 100%
$19.1B
$20.0B
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Capital Erosion Has Preceded Several Past Cycle Turns '69
'73
'74
'00
'01
'02
'08P
0%
U.S. U S P&C Surplus
-10% 0%
GAAP
S&P 500 -20%
-30% Cumulative real premium growth i three in th following f ll i years
16%
31%
30%
-40% Sources: Swiss Re, Thomson Financial, A.M. Best, Towers Perrin, Swiss Re Economic Research & Consulting
35
Well Positioned for a Turn in the Cycle 3,000
Northbridge (C$) Odyssey Re Crum & Forster
Gross Premiu G ums Written
2,500
2,000
1 500 1,500
1,000
500
Hard Market
Soft Market 0 1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005 36
Fairfax’s Strengths Demonstrated Over 23 Years 1. Operations – Disciplined operating management focused on underwriting profitability and prudent reserving ¾ P&C Insurance Operations • Canada – leading commercial insurance operation • United States – large commercial operation across the country • Asia – Hong Kong, Singapore, Thailand and largest private operation in India • Middle East – Dubai and Jordan • Eastern Europe p – Poland ¾ P&C Reinsurance Operations • Worldwide – Top p 5 broker reinsurer in the U.S.,, top p 20 in the world 37
Fairfax’s Strengths Demonstrated Over 23 Years 2. Investments – Long term, value-oriented philosophy ¾ Worldwide • Stocks • Bonds • Distressed debt • Wherever Wh “value” “ l ” prevails il ¾ Many large successful investments like Zenith, Russel Metals Metals, Hub Hub, etc etc.
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Ready for the Next Decade Building on Fairfax’s Fairfax s Strengths Our guiding principles have remained intact Excellent long term performance Demonstrated strengths ¾ Strong operating subsidiaries focused on underwriting profitability and prudent reserving ¾ Conservative investment management providing excellent long term returns Well positioned for the future
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