123...go India

123…Go India! The Indo-US nuclear deal brings into sharp focus several factors. The present article attempts to discuss some consequences arising out of the deal, specific to India. 1. Nuclear energy as a viable option: The 2006 report of the Energy coordination committee estimated that if India were to sustain an annual growth of 8%, its power generation by 2030 would have to scale up at least 5 times over the present capability. This translates into an investment of about Rs. 60,000 billion in oil and coal over the next 25 years - a prohibitive investment for India. Moreover, rapidly dwindling conventional

resources

and

uncertain

geo-politics

makes

dependence on conventional sources untenable over the long term. According to the Planning Commission’s Integrated Energy Policy, 2006, the addition of even 10,000 MW of power to the existing capacity would be “unrealistic” with present resources, clearly calling for power generation from resources other than presently exploited. The cost per unit of nuclear power is just about half that of conventional resources. It therefore stands as a viable option to meet India’s power needs in future. Though nuclear power contributes a dismal 2.5% to the total power generated in India (as of 2008), the Government estimates that the nuclear deal would add an additional 40,000 MW of critically essential and cheap Nuclear Power to India. The nuclear deal is therefore bound to give a shot in the arm to India’s capability to generate power. 2. A new job market:

According to the CIA’s The World Factbook (2008), India’s world ranking in terms of unemployment is 86 (7.2% unemployment) in 2008. The long term picture looks alarming though. According to TeamLease Services ‘India Labour Report, 2006’ current trends indicate that India will have an astonishing 30% unemployment by 2020. The current global recession and credit crunch and the accompanying problems only portend further deterioration on the job market front. Mr. Bruce Josten, the chairman of the US Chamber of Commerce and a strong supporter of the nuclear deal, has gone on record to say that the nearly $150 billion nuclear business in India could support 250,000 hi-tech jobs in the US. Mr. Jairam Ramesh, the Indian minister of state for commerce and power, recently observed that the 30-odd reactors that India is planning to set-up in the coming years would see thousands of jobs in India for engineers, technicians and scientists, not mentioning the support staff. This sentiment was also echoed by the congress MP Mr. Rahul Gandhi, when he said “The nuclear deal means millions and millions of jobs…” Indications are therefore quite strong that the Nuclear Deal is likely to kick-start a fresh impetus to employment-generation and help keep the wolves away from the doors of quite a few families. 3. India –a new ‘Powerhouse’? Ground situation in world politics changed dramatically post-September 11th when the terrorism crossed boundaries and affected humanity as a whole. With India simultaneously making rapid strides in key areas and its economy booming, it could no longer be ignored on the world stage.

Under such circumstances, the signing of the Indo-US nuclear deal is bound to force the redrafting of foreign policies of several countries, a step made further necessary by favourable reactions coming from key sources. President of Pakistan Mr. Asif Ali Zardari declared that his country did not see India as a threat and had no objections to the Indo-US deal. China too averred that it understood India’s energy needs and its necessity to push for closer ties with the US.

An indication of the changing

dynamics in world politics was given by the American Secretary of State Ms. Condoleezza Rice when she said that the signing of the nuclear deal with India was an acknowledgement of the emergence of India on the global stage.

With such positive

reactions and receding threat of polarization in political affairs, it now remains to be seen how far India succeeds in influencing the course of world politics. One may hazard a guess at this juncture that the internal politics of India could prove more detrimental in India’s quest to be a global ‘powerhouse’. 4. Environmental concerns : Though helping in reducing carbon emissions, nuclear power still spells a dangerous recipe for irreversible environmental disaster if safety and pollution norms are ambiguous and not taken seriously. The Chernobyl tragedy is a grim reminder of the havoc wreaked by nuclear power with scant safety measures. Highly toxic nuclear waste disposal is another problem the government has to contend with. The Nuclear deal is bound to bring state-ofthe-art technology into Indian hands. The critical question to ask is if we have the wherewithal to protect this technology and prevent its misuse. A systematic upgradation of our abilities on these fronts is therefore called for.

The Indo-US nuclear deal only spells good for India and its strategic as well as other needs. Not only is it certain to propel India into a visible global player, it is also an economical and viable option to address India’s energy needs. But efforts need to be made to put strict laws and enforcement mechanisms in place and ensure the safety and security of a variety of state-of-art technologies and potentially dangerous material. Overall, since the gains far outweigh the losses, it is 123….go for India!